Aggregator

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with strong/gusty winds and hail will be possible across parts of the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Central Rockies/High Plains... Upper troughing will develop eastward across the Great Basin to the northern/central Rockies by Sunday evening, while downstream upper ridging shifts eastward over the Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure should deepen over southeastern CO through the afternoon, while a separate low develops over northern WY as ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the central Rockies/High Plains. A nearly stationary surface boundary should extend east/west across KS into northeastern CO Sunday morning, and this front should generally move little through Sunday evening. Storms ongoing at the start of the period across the eastern Great Basin should increase in both coverage and intensity as they develop eastward across the central Rockies by early Sunday afternoon. Mid-level winds attendant to the upper trough are not forecast to be overly strong (around 25-35 kt at 500 mb). But, enough veering/strengthening with height through low/mid levels combined with around 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE along/south of the surface boundary will probably allow for some updraft organization as convection spreads eastward across the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. Tendency should be for storms to congeal into a couple of clusters and spread east-northeastward. Some hail may occur with initial development over the higher terrain, with isolated strong/gusty winds potentially becoming more of a concern across the central High Plains Sunday evening. ...Missouri into the Mid Mississippi Valley... A small cluster of storms may be ongoing at the start of the period across northern/central MO and western IL in a low-level warm air advection regime. A southwesterly low-level jet is expected to quickly weaken through the morning across this region, and a corresponding decrease in storm coverage is anticipated. While a very isolated strong wind gust cannot be ruled out with this morning activity before it weakens, the overall threat appears too isolated to warrant any severe probabilities at this time. The potential for additional storms to develop Sunday afternoon along any residual outflow boundaries or the stationary front also appears highly uncertain, as upper ridging and large-scale subsidence should slowly overspread this region. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Gleason.. 09/07/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with strong/gusty winds and hail will be possible across parts of the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Central Rockies/High Plains... Upper troughing will develop eastward across the Great Basin to the northern/central Rockies by Sunday evening, while downstream upper ridging shifts eastward over the Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure should deepen over southeastern CO through the afternoon, while a separate low develops over northern WY as ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the central Rockies/High Plains. A nearly stationary surface boundary should extend east/west across KS into northeastern CO Sunday morning, and this front should generally move little through Sunday evening. Storms ongoing at the start of the period across the eastern Great Basin should increase in both coverage and intensity as they develop eastward across the central Rockies by early Sunday afternoon. Mid-level winds attendant to the upper trough are not forecast to be overly strong (around 25-35 kt at 500 mb). But, enough veering/strengthening with height through low/mid levels combined with around 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE along/south of the surface boundary will probably allow for some updraft organization as convection spreads eastward across the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. Tendency should be for storms to congeal into a couple of clusters and spread east-northeastward. Some hail may occur with initial development over the higher terrain, with isolated strong/gusty winds potentially becoming more of a concern across the central High Plains Sunday evening. ...Missouri into the Mid Mississippi Valley... A small cluster of storms may be ongoing at the start of the period across northern/central MO and western IL in a low-level warm air advection regime. A southwesterly low-level jet is expected to quickly weaken through the morning across this region, and a corresponding decrease in storm coverage is anticipated. While a very isolated strong wind gust cannot be ruled out with this morning activity before it weakens, the overall threat appears too isolated to warrant any severe probabilities at this time. The potential for additional storms to develop Sunday afternoon along any residual outflow boundaries or the stationary front also appears highly uncertain, as upper ridging and large-scale subsidence should slowly overspread this region. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Gleason.. 09/07/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with strong/gusty winds and hail will be possible across parts of the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Central Rockies/High Plains... Upper troughing will develop eastward across the Great Basin to the northern/central Rockies by Sunday evening, while downstream upper ridging shifts eastward over the Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure should deepen over southeastern CO through the afternoon, while a separate low develops over northern WY as ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the central Rockies/High Plains. A nearly stationary surface boundary should extend east/west across KS into northeastern CO Sunday morning, and this front should generally move little through Sunday evening. Storms ongoing at the start of the period across the eastern Great Basin should increase in both coverage and intensity as they develop eastward across the central Rockies by early Sunday afternoon. Mid-level winds attendant to the upper trough are not forecast to be overly strong (around 25-35 kt at 500 mb). But, enough veering/strengthening with height through low/mid levels combined with around 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE along/south of the surface boundary will probably allow for some updraft organization as convection spreads eastward across the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. Tendency should be for storms to congeal into a couple of clusters and spread east-northeastward. Some hail may occur with initial development over the higher terrain, with isolated strong/gusty winds potentially becoming more of a concern across the central High Plains Sunday evening. ...Missouri into the Mid Mississippi Valley... A small cluster of storms may be ongoing at the start of the period across northern/central MO and western IL in a low-level warm air advection regime. A southwesterly low-level jet is expected to quickly weaken through the morning across this region, and a corresponding decrease in storm coverage is anticipated. While a very isolated strong wind gust cannot be ruled out with this morning activity before it weakens, the overall threat appears too isolated to warrant any severe probabilities at this time. The potential for additional storms to develop Sunday afternoon along any residual outflow boundaries or the stationary front also appears highly uncertain, as upper ridging and large-scale subsidence should slowly overspread this region. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Gleason.. 09/07/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with strong/gusty winds and hail will be possible across parts of the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Central Rockies/High Plains... Upper troughing will develop eastward across the Great Basin to the northern/central Rockies by Sunday evening, while downstream upper ridging shifts eastward over the Plains. At the surface, an area of low pressure should deepen over southeastern CO through the afternoon, while a separate low develops over northern WY as ascent associated with the upper trough overspreads the central Rockies/High Plains. A nearly stationary surface boundary should extend east/west across KS into northeastern CO Sunday morning, and this front should generally move little through Sunday evening. Storms ongoing at the start of the period across the eastern Great Basin should increase in both coverage and intensity as they develop eastward across the central Rockies by early Sunday afternoon. Mid-level winds attendant to the upper trough are not forecast to be overly strong (around 25-35 kt at 500 mb). But, enough veering/strengthening with height through low/mid levels combined with around 1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE along/south of the surface boundary will probably allow for some updraft organization as convection spreads eastward across the central High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. Tendency should be for storms to congeal into a couple of clusters and spread east-northeastward. Some hail may occur with initial development over the higher terrain, with isolated strong/gusty winds potentially becoming more of a concern across the central High Plains Sunday evening. ...Missouri into the Mid Mississippi Valley... A small cluster of storms may be ongoing at the start of the period across northern/central MO and western IL in a low-level warm air advection regime. A southwesterly low-level jet is expected to quickly weaken through the morning across this region, and a corresponding decrease in storm coverage is anticipated. While a very isolated strong wind gust cannot be ruled out with this morning activity before it weakens, the overall threat appears too isolated to warrant any severe probabilities at this time. The potential for additional storms to develop Sunday afternoon along any residual outflow boundaries or the stationary front also appears highly uncertain, as upper ridging and large-scale subsidence should slowly overspread this region. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Gleason.. 09/07/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN CASCADES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail are possible today from thunderstorms over parts of the central Plains, and near the northern Cascades. ...Central Plains... A well-defined shortwave trough is moving quickly eastward today across eastern MT/WY. This feature will help to initiate scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening from parts of eastern CO and western KS into portions of SD/NE/MO/IA. Low-level winds are forecast to be relatively weak across the central Plains, limiting overall convective organization. However, multiple remnant surface boundaries should be sufficient for a few clusters of multicell and occasional supercell storms through the evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of isolated strong/severe storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Given the weak low-level winds and expectation of rather disorganized convective, will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk with only minor changes. ...Pacific Northwest... A rather deep upper trough is approaching the OR/CA coast today. Strengthening wind fields and cooling aloft will aid initiation of scattered thunderstorms over central OR/WA along and east of the Cascades. Organized severe storms are not expected. However, the strongest cells could result in gusty winds and hail for a few hours this afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Wendt.. 09/07/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN CASCADES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail are possible today from thunderstorms over parts of the central Plains, and near the northern Cascades. ...Central Plains... A well-defined shortwave trough is moving quickly eastward today across eastern MT/WY. This feature will help to initiate scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening from parts of eastern CO and western KS into portions of SD/NE/MO/IA. Low-level winds are forecast to be relatively weak across the central Plains, limiting overall convective organization. However, multiple remnant surface boundaries should be sufficient for a few clusters of multicell and occasional supercell storms through the evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of isolated strong/severe storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Given the weak low-level winds and expectation of rather disorganized convective, will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk with only minor changes. ...Pacific Northwest... A rather deep upper trough is approaching the OR/CA coast today. Strengthening wind fields and cooling aloft will aid initiation of scattered thunderstorms over central OR/WA along and east of the Cascades. Organized severe storms are not expected. However, the strongest cells could result in gusty winds and hail for a few hours this afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Wendt.. 09/07/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN CASCADES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail are possible today from thunderstorms over parts of the central Plains, and near the northern Cascades. ...Central Plains... A well-defined shortwave trough is moving quickly eastward today across eastern MT/WY. This feature will help to initiate scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening from parts of eastern CO and western KS into portions of SD/NE/MO/IA. Low-level winds are forecast to be relatively weak across the central Plains, limiting overall convective organization. However, multiple remnant surface boundaries should be sufficient for a few clusters of multicell and occasional supercell storms through the evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of isolated strong/severe storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Given the weak low-level winds and expectation of rather disorganized convective, will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk with only minor changes. ...Pacific Northwest... A rather deep upper trough is approaching the OR/CA coast today. Strengthening wind fields and cooling aloft will aid initiation of scattered thunderstorms over central OR/WA along and east of the Cascades. Organized severe storms are not expected. However, the strongest cells could result in gusty winds and hail for a few hours this afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Wendt.. 09/07/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN CASCADES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail are possible today from thunderstorms over parts of the central Plains, and near the northern Cascades. ...Central Plains... A well-defined shortwave trough is moving quickly eastward today across eastern MT/WY. This feature will help to initiate scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening from parts of eastern CO and western KS into portions of SD/NE/MO/IA. Low-level winds are forecast to be relatively weak across the central Plains, limiting overall convective organization. However, multiple remnant surface boundaries should be sufficient for a few clusters of multicell and occasional supercell storms through the evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of isolated strong/severe storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Given the weak low-level winds and expectation of rather disorganized convective, will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk with only minor changes. ...Pacific Northwest... A rather deep upper trough is approaching the OR/CA coast today. Strengthening wind fields and cooling aloft will aid initiation of scattered thunderstorms over central OR/WA along and east of the Cascades. Organized severe storms are not expected. However, the strongest cells could result in gusty winds and hail for a few hours this afternoon and evening. ..Hart/Wendt.. 09/07/2019 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z Latest models are a bit stronger with surface winds in the immediate lee of the Sierras this afternoon, with localized areas of dry fuels supporting an elevated fire weather threat. A small elevated area has been added to address this fire weather scenario, with the expectation that localized areas of 20+ mph westerly surface winds will develop for a few hours late this afternoon amidst 15-25% RH. Elevated fire weather conditions remain likely this afternoon across portions of Santa Barbara County in California tonight as well. Sundowner winds with gusts to 40mph (locally higher in terrain-favored areas) will develop amidst 15-20% RH and dry fuels supporting potential fire spread. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 09/07/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough -- located over the northern Rockies vicinity Day 1/Saturday morning -- is forecast to move eastward over the northern/central plains through the day. Meanwhile, an upstream negatively tilted mid-level trough and attendant area of enhanced mid-level flow are forecast to move onshore over portions of the western CONUS through the overnight. ...Southern California: Santa Barbara South Coast... Sundowner winds are expected to increase across portions of the Santa Barbara South Coast and adjacent foothills Day 1/Saturday afternoon/evening as northerly low-level flow is enhanced with the aforementioned trough passing over the Pacific Northwest. While sustained surface winds will generally remain around 15-20 mph, strong wind gusts of 25-40 mph are possible (locally 50+ mph in terrain favored areas). Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected as these winds overlap areas with minimum RH value around 15-20% (locally below 15%) and receptive fuels for fire spread. Poor RH recoveries may promote elevated fire weather conditions through the overnight and into Day 2/Sunday morning -- especially in areas above 1000 ft where RH values may remain below 20%. ...Pacific Northwest into Nevada... Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over portions of the Cascades in Oregon/Washington (and perhaps far Northern California) during the late afternoon/evening as ascent associated with the aforementioned negatively tilted trough moves onshore. While a lightning ignition remains possible, thunderstorms should remain mostly wet precluding an isolated dry thunderstorm area. A slightly better chance for a lightning ignition exists across Nevada, where thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon. While storm motions will be relatively fast and precipitable water values generally around 0.75", recent precipitation over the past few days coupled with the expected scattered to widespread coverage precludes an isolated dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z Latest models are a bit stronger with surface winds in the immediate lee of the Sierras this afternoon, with localized areas of dry fuels supporting an elevated fire weather threat. A small elevated area has been added to address this fire weather scenario, with the expectation that localized areas of 20+ mph westerly surface winds will develop for a few hours late this afternoon amidst 15-25% RH. Elevated fire weather conditions remain likely this afternoon across portions of Santa Barbara County in California tonight as well. Sundowner winds with gusts to 40mph (locally higher in terrain-favored areas) will develop amidst 15-20% RH and dry fuels supporting potential fire spread. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 09/07/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough -- located over the northern Rockies vicinity Day 1/Saturday morning -- is forecast to move eastward over the northern/central plains through the day. Meanwhile, an upstream negatively tilted mid-level trough and attendant area of enhanced mid-level flow are forecast to move onshore over portions of the western CONUS through the overnight. ...Southern California: Santa Barbara South Coast... Sundowner winds are expected to increase across portions of the Santa Barbara South Coast and adjacent foothills Day 1/Saturday afternoon/evening as northerly low-level flow is enhanced with the aforementioned trough passing over the Pacific Northwest. While sustained surface winds will generally remain around 15-20 mph, strong wind gusts of 25-40 mph are possible (locally 50+ mph in terrain favored areas). Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected as these winds overlap areas with minimum RH value around 15-20% (locally below 15%) and receptive fuels for fire spread. Poor RH recoveries may promote elevated fire weather conditions through the overnight and into Day 2/Sunday morning -- especially in areas above 1000 ft where RH values may remain below 20%. ...Pacific Northwest into Nevada... Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over portions of the Cascades in Oregon/Washington (and perhaps far Northern California) during the late afternoon/evening as ascent associated with the aforementioned negatively tilted trough moves onshore. While a lightning ignition remains possible, thunderstorms should remain mostly wet precluding an isolated dry thunderstorm area. A slightly better chance for a lightning ignition exists across Nevada, where thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon. While storm motions will be relatively fast and precipitable water values generally around 0.75", recent precipitation over the past few days coupled with the expected scattered to widespread coverage precludes an isolated dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z Latest models are a bit stronger with surface winds in the immediate lee of the Sierras this afternoon, with localized areas of dry fuels supporting an elevated fire weather threat. A small elevated area has been added to address this fire weather scenario, with the expectation that localized areas of 20+ mph westerly surface winds will develop for a few hours late this afternoon amidst 15-25% RH. Elevated fire weather conditions remain likely this afternoon across portions of Santa Barbara County in California tonight as well. Sundowner winds with gusts to 40mph (locally higher in terrain-favored areas) will develop amidst 15-20% RH and dry fuels supporting potential fire spread. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 09/07/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough -- located over the northern Rockies vicinity Day 1/Saturday morning -- is forecast to move eastward over the northern/central plains through the day. Meanwhile, an upstream negatively tilted mid-level trough and attendant area of enhanced mid-level flow are forecast to move onshore over portions of the western CONUS through the overnight. ...Southern California: Santa Barbara South Coast... Sundowner winds are expected to increase across portions of the Santa Barbara South Coast and adjacent foothills Day 1/Saturday afternoon/evening as northerly low-level flow is enhanced with the aforementioned trough passing over the Pacific Northwest. While sustained surface winds will generally remain around 15-20 mph, strong wind gusts of 25-40 mph are possible (locally 50+ mph in terrain favored areas). Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected as these winds overlap areas with minimum RH value around 15-20% (locally below 15%) and receptive fuels for fire spread. Poor RH recoveries may promote elevated fire weather conditions through the overnight and into Day 2/Sunday morning -- especially in areas above 1000 ft where RH values may remain below 20%. ...Pacific Northwest into Nevada... Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over portions of the Cascades in Oregon/Washington (and perhaps far Northern California) during the late afternoon/evening as ascent associated with the aforementioned negatively tilted trough moves onshore. While a lightning ignition remains possible, thunderstorms should remain mostly wet precluding an isolated dry thunderstorm area. A slightly better chance for a lightning ignition exists across Nevada, where thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon. While storm motions will be relatively fast and precipitable water values generally around 0.75", recent precipitation over the past few days coupled with the expected scattered to widespread coverage precludes an isolated dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z Latest models are a bit stronger with surface winds in the immediate lee of the Sierras this afternoon, with localized areas of dry fuels supporting an elevated fire weather threat. A small elevated area has been added to address this fire weather scenario, with the expectation that localized areas of 20+ mph westerly surface winds will develop for a few hours late this afternoon amidst 15-25% RH. Elevated fire weather conditions remain likely this afternoon across portions of Santa Barbara County in California tonight as well. Sundowner winds with gusts to 40mph (locally higher in terrain-favored areas) will develop amidst 15-20% RH and dry fuels supporting potential fire spread. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 09/07/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1147 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019/ ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level shortwave trough -- located over the northern Rockies vicinity Day 1/Saturday morning -- is forecast to move eastward over the northern/central plains through the day. Meanwhile, an upstream negatively tilted mid-level trough and attendant area of enhanced mid-level flow are forecast to move onshore over portions of the western CONUS through the overnight. ...Southern California: Santa Barbara South Coast... Sundowner winds are expected to increase across portions of the Santa Barbara South Coast and adjacent foothills Day 1/Saturday afternoon/evening as northerly low-level flow is enhanced with the aforementioned trough passing over the Pacific Northwest. While sustained surface winds will generally remain around 15-20 mph, strong wind gusts of 25-40 mph are possible (locally 50+ mph in terrain favored areas). Elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions are expected as these winds overlap areas with minimum RH value around 15-20% (locally below 15%) and receptive fuels for fire spread. Poor RH recoveries may promote elevated fire weather conditions through the overnight and into Day 2/Sunday morning -- especially in areas above 1000 ft where RH values may remain below 20%. ...Pacific Northwest into Nevada... Thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over portions of the Cascades in Oregon/Washington (and perhaps far Northern California) during the late afternoon/evening as ascent associated with the aforementioned negatively tilted trough moves onshore. While a lightning ignition remains possible, thunderstorms should remain mostly wet precluding an isolated dry thunderstorm area. A slightly better chance for a lightning ignition exists across Nevada, where thunderstorms should develop during the afternoon. While storm motions will be relatively fast and precipitable water values generally around 0.75", recent precipitation over the past few days coupled with the expected scattered to widespread coverage precludes an isolated dry thunderstorm area at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 14:50:43 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 15:38:17 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 071446 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Juliette Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 500 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 The last bit of Juliette's deep convection--using -50C cloud tops as a proxy--dissipated around 0400 UTC. Although it's likely that the storm's winds are decreasing, recent satellite estimates range from 25 kt from SAB to 45 kt from TAFB and the UW-CIMSS SATCON. Therefore, the initial intensity will remain 40 kt on this advisory. Although Juliette is now departing a minimum in sea surface temperatures (23-24C), ocean waters ahead of the system will remain below 26C for the next 3 days or so. In addition, west- southwesterly vertical shear will be increasing substantially by 48 hours. If deep convection doesn't redevelop soon, Juliette will become a post-tropical cyclone later today, and then maintain that status with surface winds gradually decreasing over the next several days. The low should open up into a trough around day 5. The initial motion is 280/10 kt. Now that the cyclone has become shallow, it is expected to be steered generally westward by the low-level trade winds. The track models are in good agreement on the future track of Juliette through day 4, and no appreciable changes were required from the previous NHC track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/1500Z 24.2N 128.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 08/0000Z 24.3N 130.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 08/1200Z 24.3N 132.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/0000Z 24.3N 134.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1200Z 24.2N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1200Z 24.0N 140.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1200Z 24.5N 143.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 071446 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 25 2(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 25N 135W 34 X 1( 1) 15(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 500 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 071446 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 500 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 ...JULIETTE LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.2N 128.4W ABOUT 1175 MI...1890 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 24.2 North, longitude 128.4 West. Juliette is moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through the middle of next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days, and Juliette is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone later today. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Berg

...JULIETTE LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY... As of 5:00 AM HST Sat Sep 7 the center of Juliette was located near 24.2, -128.4 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 071445 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 1500 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 128.4W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 128.4W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 127.8W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 24.3N 130.1W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 24.3N 132.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 24.3N 134.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.2N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 24.0N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.5N 143.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.2N 128.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG

For Immediate Release September 6, 2019 at 8pm Contact: Nick Howell Neck Fire Information Officer Cell: (435) 590-4821 Wildfire Fact Sheet- Neck Fire Note: Get the latest fire updates on Twitter @UtahWildfire Summary: This lightning caused wildfire is visible from various locations in Iron and Beaver Counties. Firefighters made good progress in securing the fire’s south perimeter today. A Type 2 Incident Management Team has been ordered due to increased complexity and will provide more resources to assist firefighters. More fire growth is expected Saturday. Roads in the vicinity of the incident are currently closed for public and firefighter safety. Reported: Thursday, September 5. Location: Approximately 8 miles north of Cedar City, Utah. Jurisdiction: Bureau of Land Management, Cedar City Field Office. Fire Size: Mapped at 17,800 acres. (Note: one acre is equivalent to one football field) Cause: Lightning. Fire Behavior: The fire is currently active. Short...

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND NEAR THE NORTHERN CASCADES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail are possible today from thunderstorms over parts of the central Plains, and near the northern Cascades. ...Synopsis... A progressive upper-air pattern will persist over the northern 1/3-1/2 of the CONUS, while continued weakening of longstanding southwestern ridging is expected. A leading shortwave trough -- now apparent in moisture-channel imagery over portions of central MT and western WY -- will shift east-southeastward over the northern High Plains to the Dakotas and northern NE through the period. Upstream ridging will shift northeastward from the Pacific Coast States to the northern/central Rockies. This will occur as a strong, negatively tilted trough -- initially located offshore from the Pacific Coast, moves inland in the 00-06Z time frame. By the end of the period, this trough at 500 mb should be located from western portions of WA/OR to near LAS then down the lower Colorado River Valley. At the surface, a quasistationary frontal zone was analyzed from a low over southeastern CO east-southeastward across northern parts of OK, to portions of the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley region. This boundary should move northward over the central Plains as a warm front, potentially merging with another baroclinic zone evident over southern SD. ...Central Plains across adjoining Missouri Valley... Isolated to widely scattered convection should form late this afternoon into this evening, within two now-conjoined corridors: from southeastern CO across northern KS to northwestern MO, and from western SD southeastward across central/southeastern NE. The northern limb will correspond to a narrow, triangular, northwest/ southeast-oriented plume of favorable moisture and antecedent destabilization, from western SD to central NE. Any sustained thunderstorms will have the potential to become supercellular, with large hail and strong-severe gusts possible. Any activity over CO, KS, NE and southern SD may be surface-based, with the northern rim of a boundary-layer moist axis impinging on relatively maximized low-level convergence near the frontal zone, low, and an inverted trough. Forecast soundings suggest 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE by mid/late afternoon over central NE and the eastern Sandhills, increasing to 2000-3000 J/kg toward northeastern KS (but amidst stronger capping). This will be supported by surface dew points in the 60s F and steep deep-layer lapse rates. Surface-based buoyancy will lessen in magnitude and spatial width with northward extent and in over SD and southwester extent into southeastern CO, but still may support a severe storm or two moving southeastward to eastward obliquely through the narrow favorable thermodynamic zone. Strong directional shear is expected near the warm frontal zone, though weak wind speeds will limit hodograph size in the lowest couple of km. Lack of greater coverage of both progged convection and favorable parameter space precludes more than a marginal unconditional severe risk at this time. However, the potential for convection to cross the gap between the two previous marginal risks resulted in their union. ...Interior Northwest... Widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over and just east of the Cascade crest this afternoon and evening, offering isolated threats for severe hail/gusts as activity moves north- northeastward to northeastward over the outlook area. Strong heating of higher terrain will preferentially remove MLCINH conterminously with strengthening large-scale ascent related to the approaching Pacific trough. The resulting steepening of low/middle- level lapse rates, atop a corridor of at least marginally favorable low-level moisture remaining after diurnal mixing, will support pockets of 500-1000 J/kg peak preconvective MLCAPE. Just as importantly, a large-DCAPE, well-mixed boundary layer will develop over the eastern Cascades region and part of adjoining lower terrain, helping to maintain hail and accelerate downdrafts to the surface. Forecast soundings suggest 25-40 kt effective-shear vectors in support of predominantly multicellular (but potentially isolated supercellular) storm mode. ..Edwards/Smith.. 09/07/2019 Read more