Aggregator

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 062036 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 124.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 130W 34 1 9(10) 18(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 10(14) X(14) X(14) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 062036 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Juliette Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 1100 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 ...JULIETTE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.4N 124.9W ABOUT 955 MI...1535 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Juliette was located near latitude 23.4 North, longitude 124.9 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion should continue through tonight. A turn toward the west is forecast to occur on Saturday and a general westward motion should continue into early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Juliette is forecast to degenerate into a remnant low late Saturday or Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb (29.30 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Brown

...JULIETTE WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... ...ADDITIONAL WEAKENING EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 11:00 AM HST Fri Sep 6 the center of Juliette was located near 23.4, -124.9 with movement WNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 992 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 062035 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 124.9W AT 06/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 124.9W AT 06/2100Z AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 124.4W FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 23.8N 126.6W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 24.1N 128.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.1N 130.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 23.9N 133.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 23.7N 137.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 23.5N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 24.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 124.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Weather extremes, including recent drought, has resulted in corn dropping ears and soybeans losing leaves in parts of Champaign County. Lincoln Daily News (Ill.), Sept. 5, 2019

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorm winds and hail will remain possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the northern Intermountain region, northern/central Rockies, and adjacent High Plains. ...20Z Update... Only minor changes have been made to the Marginal Risk area to include more of eastern OR and far northern NV/UT based on recent satellite and radar trends. For more information on the near-term severe threat across parts of the northern Intermountain region, see Mesoscale Discussion 1935. ..Gleason.. 09/06/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019/ ...ID/MT/WY... Morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving across OR and northern CA. This feature will affect parts of ID/western MT/western WY this afternoon. Broken cloud cover will result in pockets of destabilization, with dewpoints in the 50s yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. Morning CAM solutions suggest a few clusters of occasionally organized storms are possible, with gusty winds and hail possible in the strongest cells. Will maintain ongoing MRGL risk, but will monitor for the development of bowing structures later today and the potential for an upgrade. ...CO/WY... A large upper ridge is present today over the southern Rockies, with weak to moderately strong midlevel westerly flow from northern CO into WY. It appears likely that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form in the foothills of north-central CO into southern WY, with slow eastward movement of storms into the adjacent plains this evening. A few of the storms may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds. Organized severe storms are not currently anticipated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorm winds and hail will remain possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the northern Intermountain region, northern/central Rockies, and adjacent High Plains. ...20Z Update... Only minor changes have been made to the Marginal Risk area to include more of eastern OR and far northern NV/UT based on recent satellite and radar trends. For more information on the near-term severe threat across parts of the northern Intermountain region, see Mesoscale Discussion 1935. ..Gleason.. 09/06/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019/ ...ID/MT/WY... Morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving across OR and northern CA. This feature will affect parts of ID/western MT/western WY this afternoon. Broken cloud cover will result in pockets of destabilization, with dewpoints in the 50s yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. Morning CAM solutions suggest a few clusters of occasionally organized storms are possible, with gusty winds and hail possible in the strongest cells. Will maintain ongoing MRGL risk, but will monitor for the development of bowing structures later today and the potential for an upgrade. ...CO/WY... A large upper ridge is present today over the southern Rockies, with weak to moderately strong midlevel westerly flow from northern CO into WY. It appears likely that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form in the foothills of north-central CO into southern WY, with slow eastward movement of storms into the adjacent plains this evening. A few of the storms may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds. Organized severe storms are not currently anticipated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorm winds and hail will remain possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the northern Intermountain region, northern/central Rockies, and adjacent High Plains. ...20Z Update... Only minor changes have been made to the Marginal Risk area to include more of eastern OR and far northern NV/UT based on recent satellite and radar trends. For more information on the near-term severe threat across parts of the northern Intermountain region, see Mesoscale Discussion 1935. ..Gleason.. 09/06/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019/ ...ID/MT/WY... Morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving across OR and northern CA. This feature will affect parts of ID/western MT/western WY this afternoon. Broken cloud cover will result in pockets of destabilization, with dewpoints in the 50s yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. Morning CAM solutions suggest a few clusters of occasionally organized storms are possible, with gusty winds and hail possible in the strongest cells. Will maintain ongoing MRGL risk, but will monitor for the development of bowing structures later today and the potential for an upgrade. ...CO/WY... A large upper ridge is present today over the southern Rockies, with weak to moderately strong midlevel westerly flow from northern CO into WY. It appears likely that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form in the foothills of north-central CO into southern WY, with slow eastward movement of storms into the adjacent plains this evening. A few of the storms may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds. Organized severe storms are not currently anticipated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorm winds and hail will remain possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the northern Intermountain region, northern/central Rockies, and adjacent High Plains. ...20Z Update... Only minor changes have been made to the Marginal Risk area to include more of eastern OR and far northern NV/UT based on recent satellite and radar trends. For more information on the near-term severe threat across parts of the northern Intermountain region, see Mesoscale Discussion 1935. ..Gleason.. 09/06/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019/ ...ID/MT/WY... Morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving across OR and northern CA. This feature will affect parts of ID/western MT/western WY this afternoon. Broken cloud cover will result in pockets of destabilization, with dewpoints in the 50s yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. Morning CAM solutions suggest a few clusters of occasionally organized storms are possible, with gusty winds and hail possible in the strongest cells. Will maintain ongoing MRGL risk, but will monitor for the development of bowing structures later today and the potential for an upgrade. ...CO/WY... A large upper ridge is present today over the southern Rockies, with weak to moderately strong midlevel westerly flow from northern CO into WY. It appears likely that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form in the foothills of north-central CO into southern WY, with slow eastward movement of storms into the adjacent plains this evening. A few of the storms may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds. Organized severe storms are not currently anticipated. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorm winds and hail will remain possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the northern Intermountain region, northern/central Rockies, and adjacent High Plains. ...20Z Update... Only minor changes have been made to the Marginal Risk area to include more of eastern OR and far northern NV/UT based on recent satellite and radar trends. For more information on the near-term severe threat across parts of the northern Intermountain region, see Mesoscale Discussion 1935. ..Gleason.. 09/06/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1115 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019/ ...ID/MT/WY... Morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving across OR and northern CA. This feature will affect parts of ID/western MT/western WY this afternoon. Broken cloud cover will result in pockets of destabilization, with dewpoints in the 50s yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. Morning CAM solutions suggest a few clusters of occasionally organized storms are possible, with gusty winds and hail possible in the strongest cells. Will maintain ongoing MRGL risk, but will monitor for the development of bowing structures later today and the potential for an upgrade. ...CO/WY... A large upper ridge is present today over the southern Rockies, with weak to moderately strong midlevel westerly flow from northern CO into WY. It appears likely that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form in the foothills of north-central CO into southern WY, with slow eastward movement of storms into the adjacent plains this evening. A few of the storms may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds. Organized severe storms are not currently anticipated. Read more

MD 1935 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHERN ID...NORTHEAST NV...NORTHWEST UT
Mesoscale Discussion 1935 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0204 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Areas affected...Southern ID...Northeast NV...Northwest UT Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 061904Z - 062030Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Gusty winds and marginally severe hail are expected with thunderstorms over the next few hours. Severe thunderstorm watch is not currently expected. DISCUSSION...Well-defined mid-level short-wave trough is shifting east across the northern intermountain region. Long-lived band of convection that developed over southeast OR/northwest NV has shifted downstream and new updrafts are strengthening along leading edge of thicker cloud canopy across southern ID from southern Elmore County - Twin Falls County - northern Elko County NV. As large-scale forcing interacts with higher buoyancy located over south-central ID, this activity should gradually mature, being maintained by approaching short wave. However, extensive clouds/precip currently ongoing across northern UT/eastern ID suggests strongest convection may struggle to maintain strength as it approaches weaker-buoyancy over the upper Snake River Valley. ..Darrow/Hart.. 09/06/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN... LAT...LON 41461573 42241531 43241523 43881450 43551327 41891352 41311464 41461573 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 09/06/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019/ ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough will deepen across the far western CONUS throughout the Day 2/Saturday period. A surface trough will become established across the Great Basin region. As such, locally dry, breezy conditions may be observed across far western portions of the Great Basin, mainly along the lee of the Sierra. These conditions are expected to brief and patchy enough to preclude an elevated delineation. Ahead of the surface and mid-level trough axes, deep-layer ascent may encourage isolated to scattered thunderstorms across parts of northern Nevada. Nonetheless, recent accumulated rainfall from previous thunderstorm events raises concerns as to how receptive fuels will be in this area to fire spread, especially given that the forecast Day 2 storms will be predominantly wet in nature, precluding an isolated dry thunderstorm delineation at this time. Otherwise, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across the western CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 09/06/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019/ ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough will deepen across the far western CONUS throughout the Day 2/Saturday period. A surface trough will become established across the Great Basin region. As such, locally dry, breezy conditions may be observed across far western portions of the Great Basin, mainly along the lee of the Sierra. These conditions are expected to brief and patchy enough to preclude an elevated delineation. Ahead of the surface and mid-level trough axes, deep-layer ascent may encourage isolated to scattered thunderstorms across parts of northern Nevada. Nonetheless, recent accumulated rainfall from previous thunderstorm events raises concerns as to how receptive fuels will be in this area to fire spread, especially given that the forecast Day 2 storms will be predominantly wet in nature, precluding an isolated dry thunderstorm delineation at this time. Otherwise, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across the western CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 09/06/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019/ ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough will deepen across the far western CONUS throughout the Day 2/Saturday period. A surface trough will become established across the Great Basin region. As such, locally dry, breezy conditions may be observed across far western portions of the Great Basin, mainly along the lee of the Sierra. These conditions are expected to brief and patchy enough to preclude an elevated delineation. Ahead of the surface and mid-level trough axes, deep-layer ascent may encourage isolated to scattered thunderstorms across parts of northern Nevada. Nonetheless, recent accumulated rainfall from previous thunderstorm events raises concerns as to how receptive fuels will be in this area to fire spread, especially given that the forecast Day 2 storms will be predominantly wet in nature, precluding an isolated dry thunderstorm delineation at this time. Otherwise, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across the western CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 09/06/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019/ ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough will deepen across the far western CONUS throughout the Day 2/Saturday period. A surface trough will become established across the Great Basin region. As such, locally dry, breezy conditions may be observed across far western portions of the Great Basin, mainly along the lee of the Sierra. These conditions are expected to brief and patchy enough to preclude an elevated delineation. Ahead of the surface and mid-level trough axes, deep-layer ascent may encourage isolated to scattered thunderstorms across parts of northern Nevada. Nonetheless, recent accumulated rainfall from previous thunderstorm events raises concerns as to how receptive fuels will be in this area to fire spread, especially given that the forecast Day 2 storms will be predominantly wet in nature, precluding an isolated dry thunderstorm delineation at this time. Otherwise, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across the western CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0123 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The ongoing forecast is on track and no changes are needed. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 09/06/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019/ ...Synopsis... A negatively tilted mid-level shortwave trough will deepen across the far western CONUS throughout the Day 2/Saturday period. A surface trough will become established across the Great Basin region. As such, locally dry, breezy conditions may be observed across far western portions of the Great Basin, mainly along the lee of the Sierra. These conditions are expected to brief and patchy enough to preclude an elevated delineation. Ahead of the surface and mid-level trough axes, deep-layer ascent may encourage isolated to scattered thunderstorms across parts of northern Nevada. Nonetheless, recent accumulated rainfall from previous thunderstorm events raises concerns as to how receptive fuels will be in this area to fire spread, especially given that the forecast Day 2 storms will be predominantly wet in nature, precluding an isolated dry thunderstorm delineation at this time. Otherwise, relatively quiescent fire weather conditions are expected across the western CONUS. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms with gusty winds and some large hail may occur across parts of the northern and central Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies/High Plains Saturday morning is forecast to move eastward across the northern/central Plains through the period. Areas of precipitation will likely be ongoing ahead of this feature across the Dakotas Saturday morning within a low-level warm air advection regime. A belt of stronger (30-40 kt) mid-level westerly flow will overspread much of the northern/central Plains by Saturday afternoon. In the wake of morning precipitation, at least weak destabilization will probably occur along/south of a surface boundary across SD. Around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear will likely support storm organization, but overall coverage should remain quite isolated across southern SD into northern NE Saturday afternoon. Regardless, occasional large hail and strong/gusty winds could occur with any supercell storms that form in this regime. Farther south, more robust instability will likely develop along/south of a warm front near the NE/KS border since greater low-level moisture and steeper mid-level lapse rates will be present across this region. However, mid-level winds will gradually weaken with southward extent across the central Plains, and the potential for organized severe storms across southern NE into KS remains somewhat unclear. An increase in convective coverage will likely occur Saturday evening/night from north-central KS into the mid MO Valley as a southwesterly low-level jet strengthens. Tendency should be for storms to become elevated, with an isolated large hail threat possible. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Gleason.. 09/06/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms with gusty winds and some large hail may occur across parts of the northern and central Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies/High Plains Saturday morning is forecast to move eastward across the northern/central Plains through the period. Areas of precipitation will likely be ongoing ahead of this feature across the Dakotas Saturday morning within a low-level warm air advection regime. A belt of stronger (30-40 kt) mid-level westerly flow will overspread much of the northern/central Plains by Saturday afternoon. In the wake of morning precipitation, at least weak destabilization will probably occur along/south of a surface boundary across SD. Around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear will likely support storm organization, but overall coverage should remain quite isolated across southern SD into northern NE Saturday afternoon. Regardless, occasional large hail and strong/gusty winds could occur with any supercell storms that form in this regime. Farther south, more robust instability will likely develop along/south of a warm front near the NE/KS border since greater low-level moisture and steeper mid-level lapse rates will be present across this region. However, mid-level winds will gradually weaken with southward extent across the central Plains, and the potential for organized severe storms across southern NE into KS remains somewhat unclear. An increase in convective coverage will likely occur Saturday evening/night from north-central KS into the mid MO Valley as a southwesterly low-level jet strengthens. Tendency should be for storms to become elevated, with an isolated large hail threat possible. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Gleason.. 09/06/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms with gusty winds and some large hail may occur across parts of the northern and central Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies/High Plains Saturday morning is forecast to move eastward across the northern/central Plains through the period. Areas of precipitation will likely be ongoing ahead of this feature across the Dakotas Saturday morning within a low-level warm air advection regime. A belt of stronger (30-40 kt) mid-level westerly flow will overspread much of the northern/central Plains by Saturday afternoon. In the wake of morning precipitation, at least weak destabilization will probably occur along/south of a surface boundary across SD. Around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear will likely support storm organization, but overall coverage should remain quite isolated across southern SD into northern NE Saturday afternoon. Regardless, occasional large hail and strong/gusty winds could occur with any supercell storms that form in this regime. Farther south, more robust instability will likely develop along/south of a warm front near the NE/KS border since greater low-level moisture and steeper mid-level lapse rates will be present across this region. However, mid-level winds will gradually weaken with southward extent across the central Plains, and the potential for organized severe storms across southern NE into KS remains somewhat unclear. An increase in convective coverage will likely occur Saturday evening/night from north-central KS into the mid MO Valley as a southwesterly low-level jet strengthens. Tendency should be for storms to become elevated, with an isolated large hail threat possible. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Gleason.. 09/06/2019 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1228 PM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms with gusty winds and some large hail may occur across parts of the northern and central Plains Saturday afternoon and evening. ...Northern/Central Plains... A shortwave trough over the northern Rockies/High Plains Saturday morning is forecast to move eastward across the northern/central Plains through the period. Areas of precipitation will likely be ongoing ahead of this feature across the Dakotas Saturday morning within a low-level warm air advection regime. A belt of stronger (30-40 kt) mid-level westerly flow will overspread much of the northern/central Plains by Saturday afternoon. In the wake of morning precipitation, at least weak destabilization will probably occur along/south of a surface boundary across SD. Around 30-40 kt of effective bulk shear will likely support storm organization, but overall coverage should remain quite isolated across southern SD into northern NE Saturday afternoon. Regardless, occasional large hail and strong/gusty winds could occur with any supercell storms that form in this regime. Farther south, more robust instability will likely develop along/south of a warm front near the NE/KS border since greater low-level moisture and steeper mid-level lapse rates will be present across this region. However, mid-level winds will gradually weaken with southward extent across the central Plains, and the potential for organized severe storms across southern NE into KS remains somewhat unclear. An increase in convective coverage will likely occur Saturday evening/night from north-central KS into the mid MO Valley as a southwesterly low-level jet strengthens. Tendency should be for storms to become elevated, with an isolated large hail threat possible. ...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD... Tornado: 2% - Marginal Wind: 5% - Marginal Hail: 5% - Marginal ..Gleason.. 09/06/2019 Read more