Aggregator

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 02:51:18 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 09:38:12 GMT

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 060249 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Juliette has remained resilient despite moving over SSTs around 25-26C over the past several hours. Deep convection continues to envelop the center with a ragged eye apparent in both visible and infrared satellite imagery. The latest subjective Dvorak estimates from both TAFB and SAB suggest that the initial intensity remains at 75 kt. The cyclone will be moving over cooler waters of 24-25C tonight and tomorrow, and will remain over these water temperatures for the next several days. This should cause Juliette to slowly weaken. After 48 hours, southwesterly shear is expected to begin to impact Juliette's circulation. The combination of the cooler waters and shear should cause Juliette to become a post-tropical remnant low by 72 hours. The official forecast is very similar to the previous one, and near the various intensity consensus aids. Juliette's initial motion is 305/10 kt. A turn to the west-northwest is expected on Friday as the cyclone is steered by a subtropical ridge to its north. As the cyclone weakens and becomes steered by the low-level flow, a turn to the west is expected. The only notable change to the new official forecast track was a slight increase in forward speed beyond 48 hours, as the consensus aids have come into a little better agreement on a faster forward motion during that time period. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 21.8N 121.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 07/1200Z 23.7N 127.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 08/0000Z 23.7N 129.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/0000Z 23.5N 133.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/0000Z 23.3N 136.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/0000Z 23.6N 139.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 060248 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 3 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 25N 125W 34 3 23(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 19(24) 6(30) X(30) X(30) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 7(13) X(13) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER LATTO

Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 060248 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 800 PM PDT Thu Sep 05 2019 ...JULIETTE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.8N 121.8W ABOUT 765 MI...1230 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...976 MB...28.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 21.8 North, longitude 121.8 West. Juliette is moving toward the northwest near 13 mph (20 km/h). A motion toward the west-northwest should begin tonight or early Friday. A turn toward the west is forecast on Saturday and a general westward motion should continue through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Juliette is forecast to become a tropical storm by Friday night, and degenerate to a remnant low on Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb (28.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Latto

...JULIETTE MAINTAINING ITS INTENSITY... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 5 the center of Juliette was located near 21.8, -121.8 with movement NW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 976 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 85 mph.

Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 060248 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 121.8W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 121.8W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 121.3W FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 22.6N 123.2W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.3N 125.3W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.7N 127.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.7N 129.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 23.5N 133.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 23.3N 136.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 23.6N 139.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 121.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 637 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..MOSIER..09/06/19 ATTN...WFO...MHX...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 637 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC013-015-029-031-041-049-053-055-061-073-079-091-095-103-107- 117-133-137-139-143-147-177-187-060340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BEAUFORT BERTIE CAMDEN CARTERET CHOWAN CRAVEN CURRITUCK DARE DUPLIN GATES GREENE HERTFORD HYDE JONES LENOIR MARTIN ONSLOW PAMLICO PASQUOTANK PERQUIMANS PITT TYRRELL WASHINGTON VAC550-710-740-800-810-060340- VA . VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER AND INNER BANKS VICINITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER... ...SUMMARY... The risk for a couple of additional tornadoes continues tonight, mainly across the Outer and Inner Banks vicinity of North Carolina. Otherwise, strong storms may continue to impact much of Oregon into this evening, accompanied by some risk for severe wind and hail. ...01Z Outlook Update... ...South Atlantic Coast... Although the center of Hurricane Dorian is just now reaching the southern North Carolina coastal vicinity, south of Wilmington, tropical boundary layer air, characterized by temperatures in the lower 80s F and dew points in the upper 70s, is now largely confined to the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity into portions of the Inner Banks. This environment appears to offer the best support for any appreciable continuing risk for occasional tornado development, as outer convective bands pivot across this region, in the presence of strong low-level shear. This could linger into the 09-12Z time frame, before shifting east of southern Mid Atlantic coastal areas, ahead of the gradually northeastward accelerating center of Dorian. ...Oregon... Widespread convection and associated outflow appears to be in the process of stabilizing the environment, but a couple of strong storms may continue to pose at least some risk for severe wind and hail into the 02-04Z time frame. ..Kerr.. 09/06/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER AND INNER BANKS VICINITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER... ...SUMMARY... The risk for a couple of additional tornadoes continues tonight, mainly across the Outer and Inner Banks vicinity of North Carolina. Otherwise, strong storms may continue to impact much of Oregon into this evening, accompanied by some risk for severe wind and hail. ...01Z Outlook Update... ...South Atlantic Coast... Although the center of Hurricane Dorian is just now reaching the southern North Carolina coastal vicinity, south of Wilmington, tropical boundary layer air, characterized by temperatures in the lower 80s F and dew points in the upper 70s, is now largely confined to the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity into portions of the Inner Banks. This environment appears to offer the best support for any appreciable continuing risk for occasional tornado development, as outer convective bands pivot across this region, in the presence of strong low-level shear. This could linger into the 09-12Z time frame, before shifting east of southern Mid Atlantic coastal areas, ahead of the gradually northeastward accelerating center of Dorian. ...Oregon... Widespread convection and associated outflow appears to be in the process of stabilizing the environment, but a couple of strong storms may continue to pose at least some risk for severe wind and hail into the 02-04Z time frame. ..Kerr.. 09/06/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0747 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Valid 060100Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ACROSS THE OUTER AND INNER BANKS VICINITY OF NORTH CAROLINA AND PERHAPS ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE VIRGINIA TIDEWATER... ...SUMMARY... The risk for a couple of additional tornadoes continues tonight, mainly across the Outer and Inner Banks vicinity of North Carolina. Otherwise, strong storms may continue to impact much of Oregon into this evening, accompanied by some risk for severe wind and hail. ...01Z Outlook Update... ...South Atlantic Coast... Although the center of Hurricane Dorian is just now reaching the southern North Carolina coastal vicinity, south of Wilmington, tropical boundary layer air, characterized by temperatures in the lower 80s F and dew points in the upper 70s, is now largely confined to the North Carolina Outer Banks vicinity into portions of the Inner Banks. This environment appears to offer the best support for any appreciable continuing risk for occasional tornado development, as outer convective bands pivot across this region, in the presence of strong low-level shear. This could linger into the 09-12Z time frame, before shifting east of southern Mid Atlantic coastal areas, ahead of the gradually northeastward accelerating center of Dorian. ...Oregon... Widespread convection and associated outflow appears to be in the process of stabilizing the environment, but a couple of strong storms may continue to pose at least some risk for severe wind and hail into the 02-04Z time frame. ..Kerr.. 09/06/2019 Read more

MD 1933 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 637... FOR EASTERN NC...FAR SOUTHEASTERN VA
Mesoscale Discussion 1933 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0731 PM CDT Thu Sep 05 2019 Areas affected...Eastern NC...Far Southeastern VA Concerning...Tornado Watch 637... Valid 060031Z - 060230Z The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 637 continues. SUMMARY...Threat for brief tornadoes continues across eastern NC and far southeastern VA. DISCUSSION...Based on recent radar imagery, the center of Hurricane Dorian appears to be about 60 miles south of Wilmington, NC. Two well-defined rain bands exist, one about 125 miles from the center and the other about 160 miles. The southern band currently extends from Craven County NC southeastward offshore while the northern band extends from Martin County NC southeastward offshore. Lightning and a few transient circulations have been noted within the northern band. As of 0025Z, only a few lightning strikes have been noted within the southern band. Both of these bands are expected to gradually move northward over the next several hours. Any tornado potential over the next two hours will likely occur within these bands as cells sporadically deepen. ..Mosier.. 09/06/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 36177744 36547681 36517601 36177542 34307536 34277720 34897809 36177744 Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0637 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0637 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 052324
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Sep 5 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Latto

A boil water notice was in effect for Tatitlek after the local reservoir ran dry. Alaska Public Radio Network (Anchorage), Sept. 4, 2019

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Sep 5 23:01:02 UTC 2019.

Farmers in Homer were pumping water and considering new wells as rain catchment tanks and underground spring boxes ran low. Watering schedules were adjusted to accommodate depleted water supplies. Alaska Public Radio Network (Anchorage), Sept. 4, 2019

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0637 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0637 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0637 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 637 TORNADO NC VA CW 052215Z - 061100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 637 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 615 PM EDT Thu Sep 5 2019 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Eastern North Carolina Extreme southeastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 615 PM until 700 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... A few tornadoes likely SUMMARY...Threat for occasional supercells with tornadoes will persist through tonight within the outer northeastern rain bands of hurricane Dorian. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 60 miles northeast of Elizabeth City NC to 25 miles south southeast of New Bern NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...This tornado watch replaces tornado watch number 636. Watch number 636 will not be in effect after 615 PM EDT. AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 0.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 10045. ...Thompson Read more