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A Marshall County farmer lost thousands of dollars’ worth of crops in the way of squash, peas and other crops. Other farmers were irrigating, but it is expensive and cannot fully compensate for not getting rain. WAAY-TV ABC 31 Huntsville (Ala.), Sept. 6, 2019

This fire was originally called the 1-1 Fire. It is not a BLM incident. Visit the CAL FIRE incident information page for the most current information:

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 061718
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Sep 6 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Juliette, located several hundred miles west of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The ongoing forecast is on track. A very low risk of isolated dry thunderstorms exists across portions of eastern Oregon, southern/central Idaho, and far southwestern Montana. Scattered thunderstorms were ongoing across southeastern Oregon and southwestern Idaho currently, and although some of these cores are likely producing wetting rainfall, peripheral lightning strikes outside of heavier cores may have potential for fire starts. Furthermore, additional thunderstorm activity is expected this afternoon as a mid-level trough provides cooling mid-level temperatures and ascent amidst modest buoyancy. PW values are expected to be relatively high throughout the day, however (around 1 inch), limiting the overall risk of dry lightning. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 09/06/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will break down across the western CONUS, as the first in a series of mid-level shortwave troughs traverses the Pacific Northwest, into the central/northern Rockies regions. Deep-layer ascent associated with the impinging mid-level trough will encourage isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across much of the region, with most of the storms producing wetting rains. Towards the end of the period, as the first trough moves away from the West Coast, modest northerly low-level flow may encourage dry, breezy conditions during the early morning hours across parts of southern California, where modest potential exists for some fire spread. ...Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, central and northern Rockies regions... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon hours. While many of the storms are expected to be relatively fast-moving and high-based in nature, precipitable water values in the 0.75-1.25 inch range suggests accumulating rainfall should be common with most storms. As such, the density of dry strikes is expected to be low enough to preclude an isolated dry thunderstorm delineation at this time. Still, at least a few dry strikes may occur along the periphery of the storm cores, atop fuels that will be at least modestly receptive to fire spread. Gusty, erratic surface winds may also accompany the stronger storms, worsening the potential for fire spread in localized areas lacking precipitation accumulation, especially in the central Rockies regions. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more details on severe wind/hail potential. ...Parts of Coastal Southern California... Low-level northerly flow within the 925-850 mb layer will support a modest Sundowner event in the early morning hours across parts of the Santa Ynez mountains. Downslope flow may encourage 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds. Surface RH will be on the high side (20-25%) to support a more robust wildfire-spread threat, but dry fuels are in place to support some potential for fire growth, with an elevated area delineated to account for this scenario. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The ongoing forecast is on track. A very low risk of isolated dry thunderstorms exists across portions of eastern Oregon, southern/central Idaho, and far southwestern Montana. Scattered thunderstorms were ongoing across southeastern Oregon and southwestern Idaho currently, and although some of these cores are likely producing wetting rainfall, peripheral lightning strikes outside of heavier cores may have potential for fire starts. Furthermore, additional thunderstorm activity is expected this afternoon as a mid-level trough provides cooling mid-level temperatures and ascent amidst modest buoyancy. PW values are expected to be relatively high throughout the day, however (around 1 inch), limiting the overall risk of dry lightning. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 09/06/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will break down across the western CONUS, as the first in a series of mid-level shortwave troughs traverses the Pacific Northwest, into the central/northern Rockies regions. Deep-layer ascent associated with the impinging mid-level trough will encourage isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across much of the region, with most of the storms producing wetting rains. Towards the end of the period, as the first trough moves away from the West Coast, modest northerly low-level flow may encourage dry, breezy conditions during the early morning hours across parts of southern California, where modest potential exists for some fire spread. ...Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, central and northern Rockies regions... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon hours. While many of the storms are expected to be relatively fast-moving and high-based in nature, precipitable water values in the 0.75-1.25 inch range suggests accumulating rainfall should be common with most storms. As such, the density of dry strikes is expected to be low enough to preclude an isolated dry thunderstorm delineation at this time. Still, at least a few dry strikes may occur along the periphery of the storm cores, atop fuels that will be at least modestly receptive to fire spread. Gusty, erratic surface winds may also accompany the stronger storms, worsening the potential for fire spread in localized areas lacking precipitation accumulation, especially in the central Rockies regions. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more details on severe wind/hail potential. ...Parts of Coastal Southern California... Low-level northerly flow within the 925-850 mb layer will support a modest Sundowner event in the early morning hours across parts of the Santa Ynez mountains. Downslope flow may encourage 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds. Surface RH will be on the high side (20-25%) to support a more robust wildfire-spread threat, but dry fuels are in place to support some potential for fire growth, with an elevated area delineated to account for this scenario. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The ongoing forecast is on track. A very low risk of isolated dry thunderstorms exists across portions of eastern Oregon, southern/central Idaho, and far southwestern Montana. Scattered thunderstorms were ongoing across southeastern Oregon and southwestern Idaho currently, and although some of these cores are likely producing wetting rainfall, peripheral lightning strikes outside of heavier cores may have potential for fire starts. Furthermore, additional thunderstorm activity is expected this afternoon as a mid-level trough provides cooling mid-level temperatures and ascent amidst modest buoyancy. PW values are expected to be relatively high throughout the day, however (around 1 inch), limiting the overall risk of dry lightning. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 09/06/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will break down across the western CONUS, as the first in a series of mid-level shortwave troughs traverses the Pacific Northwest, into the central/northern Rockies regions. Deep-layer ascent associated with the impinging mid-level trough will encourage isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across much of the region, with most of the storms producing wetting rains. Towards the end of the period, as the first trough moves away from the West Coast, modest northerly low-level flow may encourage dry, breezy conditions during the early morning hours across parts of southern California, where modest potential exists for some fire spread. ...Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, central and northern Rockies regions... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon hours. While many of the storms are expected to be relatively fast-moving and high-based in nature, precipitable water values in the 0.75-1.25 inch range suggests accumulating rainfall should be common with most storms. As such, the density of dry strikes is expected to be low enough to preclude an isolated dry thunderstorm delineation at this time. Still, at least a few dry strikes may occur along the periphery of the storm cores, atop fuels that will be at least modestly receptive to fire spread. Gusty, erratic surface winds may also accompany the stronger storms, worsening the potential for fire spread in localized areas lacking precipitation accumulation, especially in the central Rockies regions. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more details on severe wind/hail potential. ...Parts of Coastal Southern California... Low-level northerly flow within the 925-850 mb layer will support a modest Sundowner event in the early morning hours across parts of the Santa Ynez mountains. Downslope flow may encourage 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds. Surface RH will be on the high side (20-25%) to support a more robust wildfire-spread threat, but dry fuels are in place to support some potential for fire growth, with an elevated area delineated to account for this scenario. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1123 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z The ongoing forecast is on track. A very low risk of isolated dry thunderstorms exists across portions of eastern Oregon, southern/central Idaho, and far southwestern Montana. Scattered thunderstorms were ongoing across southeastern Oregon and southwestern Idaho currently, and although some of these cores are likely producing wetting rainfall, peripheral lightning strikes outside of heavier cores may have potential for fire starts. Furthermore, additional thunderstorm activity is expected this afternoon as a mid-level trough provides cooling mid-level temperatures and ascent amidst modest buoyancy. PW values are expected to be relatively high throughout the day, however (around 1 inch), limiting the overall risk of dry lightning. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Cook.. 09/06/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0146 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level ridge will break down across the western CONUS, as the first in a series of mid-level shortwave troughs traverses the Pacific Northwest, into the central/northern Rockies regions. Deep-layer ascent associated with the impinging mid-level trough will encourage isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across much of the region, with most of the storms producing wetting rains. Towards the end of the period, as the first trough moves away from the West Coast, modest northerly low-level flow may encourage dry, breezy conditions during the early morning hours across parts of southern California, where modest potential exists for some fire spread. ...Great Basin into the Pacific Northwest, central and northern Rockies regions... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the afternoon hours. While many of the storms are expected to be relatively fast-moving and high-based in nature, precipitable water values in the 0.75-1.25 inch range suggests accumulating rainfall should be common with most storms. As such, the density of dry strikes is expected to be low enough to preclude an isolated dry thunderstorm delineation at this time. Still, at least a few dry strikes may occur along the periphery of the storm cores, atop fuels that will be at least modestly receptive to fire spread. Gusty, erratic surface winds may also accompany the stronger storms, worsening the potential for fire spread in localized areas lacking precipitation accumulation, especially in the central Rockies regions. Please see the SPC Day 1 Convective Outlook for more details on severe wind/hail potential. ...Parts of Coastal Southern California... Low-level northerly flow within the 925-850 mb layer will support a modest Sundowner event in the early morning hours across parts of the Santa Ynez mountains. Downslope flow may encourage 15-20 mph sustained northerly surface winds. Surface RH will be on the high side (20-25%) to support a more robust wildfire-spread threat, but dry fuels are in place to support some potential for fire growth, with an elevated area delineated to account for this scenario. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorm winds and hail are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the northern Intermountain region, northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. ...ID/MT/WY... Morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving across OR and northern CA. This feature will affect parts of ID/western MT/western WY this afternoon. Broken cloud cover will result in pockets of destabilization, with dewpoints in the 50s yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. Morning CAM solutions suggest a few clusters of occasionally organized storms are possible, with gusty winds and hail possible in the strongest cells. Will maintain ongoing MRGL risk, but will monitor for the development of bowing structures later today and the potential for an upgrade. ...CO/WY... A large upper ridge is present today over the southern Rockies, with weak to moderately strong midlevel westerly flow from northern CO into WY. It appears likely that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form in the foothills of north-central CO into southern WY, with slow eastward movement of storms into the adjacent plains this evening. A few of the storms may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds. Organized severe storms are not currently anticipated. ..Hart/Wendt.. 09/06/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorm winds and hail are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the northern Intermountain region, northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. ...ID/MT/WY... Morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving across OR and northern CA. This feature will affect parts of ID/western MT/western WY this afternoon. Broken cloud cover will result in pockets of destabilization, with dewpoints in the 50s yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. Morning CAM solutions suggest a few clusters of occasionally organized storms are possible, with gusty winds and hail possible in the strongest cells. Will maintain ongoing MRGL risk, but will monitor for the development of bowing structures later today and the potential for an upgrade. ...CO/WY... A large upper ridge is present today over the southern Rockies, with weak to moderately strong midlevel westerly flow from northern CO into WY. It appears likely that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form in the foothills of north-central CO into southern WY, with slow eastward movement of storms into the adjacent plains this evening. A few of the storms may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds. Organized severe storms are not currently anticipated. ..Hart/Wendt.. 09/06/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorm winds and hail are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the northern Intermountain region, northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. ...ID/MT/WY... Morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving across OR and northern CA. This feature will affect parts of ID/western MT/western WY this afternoon. Broken cloud cover will result in pockets of destabilization, with dewpoints in the 50s yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. Morning CAM solutions suggest a few clusters of occasionally organized storms are possible, with gusty winds and hail possible in the strongest cells. Will maintain ongoing MRGL risk, but will monitor for the development of bowing structures later today and the potential for an upgrade. ...CO/WY... A large upper ridge is present today over the southern Rockies, with weak to moderately strong midlevel westerly flow from northern CO into WY. It appears likely that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form in the foothills of north-central CO into southern WY, with slow eastward movement of storms into the adjacent plains this evening. A few of the storms may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds. Organized severe storms are not currently anticipated. ..Hart/Wendt.. 09/06/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorm winds and hail are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the northern Intermountain region, northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. ...ID/MT/WY... Morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving across OR and northern CA. This feature will affect parts of ID/western MT/western WY this afternoon. Broken cloud cover will result in pockets of destabilization, with dewpoints in the 50s yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. Morning CAM solutions suggest a few clusters of occasionally organized storms are possible, with gusty winds and hail possible in the strongest cells. Will maintain ongoing MRGL risk, but will monitor for the development of bowing structures later today and the potential for an upgrade. ...CO/WY... A large upper ridge is present today over the southern Rockies, with weak to moderately strong midlevel westerly flow from northern CO into WY. It appears likely that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form in the foothills of north-central CO into southern WY, with slow eastward movement of storms into the adjacent plains this evening. A few of the storms may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds. Organized severe storms are not currently anticipated. ..Hart/Wendt.. 09/06/2019 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1115 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorm winds and hail are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the northern Intermountain region, northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. ...ID/MT/WY... Morning water vapor imagery shows a well-defined shortwave trough moving across OR and northern CA. This feature will affect parts of ID/western MT/western WY this afternoon. Broken cloud cover will result in pockets of destabilization, with dewpoints in the 50s yielding afternoon MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. Morning CAM solutions suggest a few clusters of occasionally organized storms are possible, with gusty winds and hail possible in the strongest cells. Will maintain ongoing MRGL risk, but will monitor for the development of bowing structures later today and the potential for an upgrade. ...CO/WY... A large upper ridge is present today over the southern Rockies, with weak to moderately strong midlevel westerly flow from northern CO into WY. It appears likely that scattered afternoon thunderstorms will form in the foothills of north-central CO into southern WY, with slow eastward movement of storms into the adjacent plains this evening. A few of the storms may pose a risk of hail and gusty winds. Organized severe storms are not currently anticipated. ..Hart/Wendt.. 09/06/2019 Read more

Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 061452 CCA TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Juliette Advisory Number 22...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 500 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 Corrected headline ...JULIETTE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 123.4W ABOUT 860 MI...1380 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM HST (1500 UTC), the center of Hurricane Juliette was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 123.4 West. Juliette is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion should continue during the next 24 hours. A turn toward the west is forecast to occur on Saturday and a general westward motion should continue into early next week. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Juliette is forecast to become a tropical storm later today, and degenerate into a remnant low by Sunday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM HST. $$ Forecaster Brown

...JULIETTE SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 5:00 AM HST Fri Sep 6 the center of Juliette was located near 22.8, -123.4 with movement WNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 987 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 75 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 14:39:00 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 06 Sep 2019 15:38:31 GMT

Issued at 500 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 061437 TCDEP1 Hurricane Juliette Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 500 AM HST Fri Sep 06 2019 Deep convection associated with Juliette has decreased in coverage over the past 24 hours, however, the remaining convection still wraps completely around the center. Subjective and objective raw T-numbers from TAFB and UW/CIMSS have fallen below 4.0, however the current intensity (CI) numbers are still at 4.5. Using a blend of these T- and CI-numbers, as NHC typically does during the weakening phase, yields an initial wind speed of 65 kt for this advisory. Juliette is currently over SSTs of around 24.5 degrees Celsius, with even cooler waters and a more stable and drier air mass along the predicted path of the storm. These conditions should cause gradual weakening over the next day or so, and Juliette is forecast to become post-tropical in 36 to 48 hours. Recent fixes show that Juliette has turned west-northwestward or 300/10 kt. A subtropical ridge to the north of the cyclone should continue to steer Juliette west-northwestward during the next 24 hours. After that time, the cyclone should turn westward within the low-level tradewind flow. The dynamical models are in better agreement today on the both the track and forward speed of the cyclone, and the NHC forecast is near the middle of the envelope. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/1500Z 22.8N 123.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 07/0000Z 23.4N 125.2W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 07/1200Z 23.8N 127.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 08/0000Z 23.9N 129.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 08/1200Z 23.8N 131.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 09/1200Z 23.5N 135.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 10/1200Z 23.5N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1200Z 24.0N 142.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Brown

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 061436 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 123.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 65 KTS...75 MPH...120 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 125W 34 2 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 25N 125W 34 24 4(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 1 3( 4) 16(20) 6(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) 25N 130W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 25N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 1(11) X(11) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 061436 TCMEP1 HURRICANE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 1500 UTC FRI SEP 06 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 123.4W AT 06/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 987 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 90SE 90SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 90SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.8N 123.4W AT 06/1500Z AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 123.0W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 23.4N 125.2W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 80SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 23.8N 127.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 23.9N 129.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 23.8N 131.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 23.5N 135.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 23.5N 139.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 24.0N 142.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.8N 123.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorm winds and hail are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the northern Intermountain region, northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, an initially strong anticyclone centered over the south-central Rockies will shift southwestward and weaken as a strong shortwave trough crosses the northern Rockies. That trough -- now evident in moisture-channel imagery over western OR and northern CA -- is progged to overtake/absorb lesser vorticity lobes initially to its east across eastern OR/ID. The combined, somewhat stronger perturbation will reach the MT/ID border region and southern ID by 00Z. Thereafter, the trough will pivot eastward and east-southeastward, reaching central MT, western WY and northwestern CO by 12Z. Meanwhile, farther east, shortwave troughs now over the upper Great Lakes and northern MB will move southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic and upper Great Lakes, respectively. In response, Hurricane Dorian has commenced accelerating northeastward over/off the Outer Banks, and should eject away from the Tidewater region through the remainder of the period, per NHC forecasts. With the most thermodynamically and kinematically favorable sector for supercellular tornadoes shifting offshore, and forecast to stay southeast of the Cape Cod/Martha's Vineyard region tonight, unconditional overland tornado probabilities have been dropped. Otherwise, the surface analysis showed a low near GRB with occluded front to southeastern IA, and slow-moving cold front to a weak frontal-wave/lee low over western KS, then extending across parts of southeastern CO. The low should move southeastward across OH overnight and become poorly defined in the broader field of low pressure surrounding Dorian. Meanwhile the front should cross the Ohio Valley and stall across the southern KS/northern OK/ southeastern CO corridor. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain region to Front Range/central High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon into evening in three primary regimes, described below from west to east, each offering isolated severe gusts/hail, with enough spatial overlap to result in a unified outlook area: 1. A "cold-core" regime near the midlevel/500-mb thermal trough, from eastern OR across much of southern ID, potentially forming a quasi-linear band of strong/isolated severe convection over ID before weakening tonight in western WY where regime 2 below will have produced enough convection to stabilize the air mass. Diurnal heating and midlevel cooling should overlap well, steepening low/ middle-level lapse rates considerably, atop 50s F low-elevation surface dew points. This should result in MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg atop a well-mixed boundary layer supporting strong/locally severe gusts and survival of hail to ground level. Organization should be tempered somewhat by weakening deep-layer flow with time and proximity to the mid/upper trough, and related lack of shear. However, a conditional cold-pool aggregation potential exists, especially across parts of the Snake River Plain and southern mountains west of I-15. 2. A band of relatively maximized deep-layer ascent shifting eastward from southeastern ID and northern UT across western/central WY. A combination of lift from large-scale DCVA/cooling aloft, frontal forcing near a low-level baroclinic zone preceding that trough, and pre-frontal warm advection will support convection in this area. Buoyancy should be less in both coverage and magnitude than in regime 1, with MLCAPE mainly around 500 J/kg. Still, localized well-mixed boundary layers and marginal deep shear will promote a few strong-severe cells in the broader convective plume. 3. Heating of higher terrain, favorable low-level moisture, and resultant weak MLCINH should foster convection initiation this afternoon over the Front Range, Laramie Range, adjacent foothills, and perhaps the Bighorns. Activity then should move eastward across a diabatically destabilized strip of the central High Plains, offering damaging gusts and isolated hail before weakening. Strong surface heating and deep, strongly mixed boundary layers will support isolated severe potential with this activity before it weakens this evening in a stabilizing boundary layer, at lower elevations. ..Edwards/Smith.. 09/06/2019 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0757 AM CDT Fri Sep 06 2019 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorm winds and hail are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the northern Intermountain region, northern/central Rockies and adjacent High Plains. ...Synopsis... In mid/upper levels, an initially strong anticyclone centered over the south-central Rockies will shift southwestward and weaken as a strong shortwave trough crosses the northern Rockies. That trough -- now evident in moisture-channel imagery over western OR and northern CA -- is progged to overtake/absorb lesser vorticity lobes initially to its east across eastern OR/ID. The combined, somewhat stronger perturbation will reach the MT/ID border region and southern ID by 00Z. Thereafter, the trough will pivot eastward and east-southeastward, reaching central MT, western WY and northwestern CO by 12Z. Meanwhile, farther east, shortwave troughs now over the upper Great Lakes and northern MB will move southeastward across the Mid-Atlantic and upper Great Lakes, respectively. In response, Hurricane Dorian has commenced accelerating northeastward over/off the Outer Banks, and should eject away from the Tidewater region through the remainder of the period, per NHC forecasts. With the most thermodynamically and kinematically favorable sector for supercellular tornadoes shifting offshore, and forecast to stay southeast of the Cape Cod/Martha's Vineyard region tonight, unconditional overland tornado probabilities have been dropped. Otherwise, the surface analysis showed a low near GRB with occluded front to southeastern IA, and slow-moving cold front to a weak frontal-wave/lee low over western KS, then extending across parts of southeastern CO. The low should move southeastward across OH overnight and become poorly defined in the broader field of low pressure surrounding Dorian. Meanwhile the front should cross the Ohio Valley and stall across the southern KS/northern OK/ southeastern CO corridor. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain region to Front Range/central High Plains... Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon into evening in three primary regimes, described below from west to east, each offering isolated severe gusts/hail, with enough spatial overlap to result in a unified outlook area: 1. A "cold-core" regime near the midlevel/500-mb thermal trough, from eastern OR across much of southern ID, potentially forming a quasi-linear band of strong/isolated severe convection over ID before weakening tonight in western WY where regime 2 below will have produced enough convection to stabilize the air mass. Diurnal heating and midlevel cooling should overlap well, steepening low/ middle-level lapse rates considerably, atop 50s F low-elevation surface dew points. This should result in MLCAPE 1000-1500 J/kg atop a well-mixed boundary layer supporting strong/locally severe gusts and survival of hail to ground level. Organization should be tempered somewhat by weakening deep-layer flow with time and proximity to the mid/upper trough, and related lack of shear. However, a conditional cold-pool aggregation potential exists, especially across parts of the Snake River Plain and southern mountains west of I-15. 2. A band of relatively maximized deep-layer ascent shifting eastward from southeastern ID and northern UT across western/central WY. A combination of lift from large-scale DCVA/cooling aloft, frontal forcing near a low-level baroclinic zone preceding that trough, and pre-frontal warm advection will support convection in this area. Buoyancy should be less in both coverage and magnitude than in regime 1, with MLCAPE mainly around 500 J/kg. Still, localized well-mixed boundary layers and marginal deep shear will promote a few strong-severe cells in the broader convective plume. 3. Heating of higher terrain, favorable low-level moisture, and resultant weak MLCINH should foster convection initiation this afternoon over the Front Range, Laramie Range, adjacent foothills, and perhaps the Bighorns. Activity then should move eastward across a diabatically destabilized strip of the central High Plains, offering damaging gusts and isolated hail before weakening. Strong surface heating and deep, strongly mixed boundary layers will support isolated severe potential with this activity before it weakens this evening in a stabilizing boundary layer, at lower elevations. ..Edwards/Smith.. 09/06/2019 Read more