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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 AM CDT Sun Sep 08 2019 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms with strong/gusty winds and hail will be possible across parts of the central Rockies and adjacent High Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Cyclonic flow aloft will diminish over the northeastern U.S., as a low shifts northeastward across the Canadian Maritimes. In the West, a lead trough is forecast to shift east across the Intermountain West, eventually reaching the high Plains, ahead of a larger trough/low expected to move gradually onshore over the West Coast. In between the western and northeastern troughing, low-amplitude ridging will cross the central U.S. through the period. At the surface, a weak baroclinic zone will lie east to west across Missouri and Kansas, and then northwestward along the high Plains. As the upper system advances across the Rockies, a weak/elongated frontal low is forecast to gradually develop, centered over the northeastern Wyoming vicinity. ...Central High Plains vicinity... As the upper trough crosses the West, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage through the day across a broad portion of the Intermountain region. As increasing ascent begins reaching the high Plains during the afternoon, where low-level southeasterly flow is expected to maintain a slightly more moist low-level airmass, the more favorable instability will support an increase in storm coverage and intensity. The approach of the upper system will also bring a modest increase in flow aloft, likely supporting a progression of convection off the higher terrain and across the central high Plains -- possibly evolving into a semi-organized band or bands into the evening hours. This evolution will correspond with some potential for gusty/locally damaging winds, and possibly marginal hail through the evening hours. ..Goss/Elliott.. 09/08/2019 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 080522
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Sep 7 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days well to
the southwest of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle of next week while the low moves
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

MD 1938 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST KANSAS AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA
Mesoscale Discussion 1938 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0846 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019 Areas affected...Parts of north central/northeast Kansas and adjacent portions of southern Nebraska Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 080146Z - 080245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm activity will continue to increase across the region through 10 PM-Midnight CDT. This probably will pose a risk for occasional severe hail, and perhaps increasing potential for strong surface gusts later this evening. It still appears only a low probability that a severe weather watch will be needed, but trends will continue to be monitored. DISCUSSION...Boundary-layer based thunderstorm development, which has been spreading eastward along the axis of strongest daytime heating, into and through central Kansas, seems likely to diminish shortly. But new thunderstorm activity is in the process of developing to the north and northeast, rooted within a zone of enhanced low-level warm advection, along a frontal zone now focused roughly near the central/eastern Kansas and Nebraska state border area. Seasonably moist low-level air (including surface dew points in the lower/mid 70s F) has been maintained along the front across this region, and appears to be contributing to large CAPE on the order of 2000-4000 J/kg, in the presence of relatively steep lapse rates. Perhaps aided by modest southwesterly low-level jet strengthening (25-30+ kt at 850 mb), a substantive further increase in thunderstorms appears possible along the front through the 03-06Z time frame. Near the southern fringe of a belt of 30-40+ kt westerly flow around 500 mb, there appears at least some potential for upscale growing convection to organize and perhaps pose increasing potential for strong surface gusts. Otherwise, stronger storms developing through late evening may become capable of producing occasional severe hail. ..Kerr/Thompson.. 09/08/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID... LAT...LON 39869868 40379813 40569644 40049529 39179542 39179627 39209765 39159823 39529867 39869868 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few storms capable of producing hail and damaging winds are expected this evening over parts of the mid Missouri Valley area, and near the northern Cascades. ...Pacific Northwest... Isolated thunderstorms have developed early this evening over the higher terrain of the Cascades, where modest instability and ample shear continue to suggest potential for organized updrafts. A couple of the stronger cells will be capable of producing hail and/or damaging winds over the next few hours. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #1937. ...Mid Missouri Valley region... Diurnal thunderstorms have diminished across Nebraska, while a weak cluster of convection still producing lightning continues advancing across central Kansas. As a low-level jet increases over the next few hours, warm-advection-driven ascent should result in new storm development near and north of the boundary -- which currently extends northwest to southeast across central and eastern Kansas and into west-central and southern Missouri. With a plume of amply steep mid-level lapse rates across the area contributing to moderate CAPE through the cloud-bearing layer, and modest westerly flow atop low-level southwesterlies, resulting deep-layer shear will support some potential for organized storms -- and possibly upscale growth into an eastward-moving MCS. Some risk for gusty/locally damaging winds will exist near the front, while hail will also be possible -- especially before an upscale convective evolution occurs. ..Goss.. 09/08/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few storms capable of producing hail and damaging winds are expected this evening over parts of the mid Missouri Valley area, and near the northern Cascades. ...Pacific Northwest... Isolated thunderstorms have developed early this evening over the higher terrain of the Cascades, where modest instability and ample shear continue to suggest potential for organized updrafts. A couple of the stronger cells will be capable of producing hail and/or damaging winds over the next few hours. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #1937. ...Mid Missouri Valley region... Diurnal thunderstorms have diminished across Nebraska, while a weak cluster of convection still producing lightning continues advancing across central Kansas. As a low-level jet increases over the next few hours, warm-advection-driven ascent should result in new storm development near and north of the boundary -- which currently extends northwest to southeast across central and eastern Kansas and into west-central and southern Missouri. With a plume of amply steep mid-level lapse rates across the area contributing to moderate CAPE through the cloud-bearing layer, and modest westerly flow atop low-level southwesterlies, resulting deep-layer shear will support some potential for organized storms -- and possibly upscale growth into an eastward-moving MCS. Some risk for gusty/locally damaging winds will exist near the front, while hail will also be possible -- especially before an upscale convective evolution occurs. ..Goss.. 09/08/2019 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0750 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND PORTIONS OF THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few storms capable of producing hail and damaging winds are expected this evening over parts of the mid Missouri Valley area, and near the northern Cascades. ...Pacific Northwest... Isolated thunderstorms have developed early this evening over the higher terrain of the Cascades, where modest instability and ample shear continue to suggest potential for organized updrafts. A couple of the stronger cells will be capable of producing hail and/or damaging winds over the next few hours. For additional short-term information, please refer to SWOMCD #1937. ...Mid Missouri Valley region... Diurnal thunderstorms have diminished across Nebraska, while a weak cluster of convection still producing lightning continues advancing across central Kansas. As a low-level jet increases over the next few hours, warm-advection-driven ascent should result in new storm development near and north of the boundary -- which currently extends northwest to southeast across central and eastern Kansas and into west-central and southern Missouri. With a plume of amply steep mid-level lapse rates across the area contributing to moderate CAPE through the cloud-bearing layer, and modest westerly flow atop low-level southwesterlies, resulting deep-layer shear will support some potential for organized storms -- and possibly upscale growth into an eastward-moving MCS. Some risk for gusty/locally damaging winds will exist near the front, while hail will also be possible -- especially before an upscale convective evolution occurs. ..Goss.. 09/08/2019 Read more

MD 1937 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON
Mesoscale Discussion 1937 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019 Areas affected...Portions of the Oregon and Washington Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 072336Z - 080200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage into the overnight. The strongest storms may pose a marginal risk of isolated strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail. DISCUSSION...Radar, satellite, and lightning trends suggest thunderstorms are gradually increasing in coverage and intensity along/near the crest of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington. Thunderstorm activity is expected to remain mostly isolated to widely scattered over the next several hours, before coverage increases markedly overnight as ascent associated with a negatively tilted trough further impinges on the area. The environment across the area is currently characterized by MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 30-40 knots, which should promote semi-organized multicell thunderstorms (or transient supercell structures) that may be capable of producing isolated strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail over the next several hours. While thunderstorm coverage will increase overnight, intensity should decrease as boundary layer cooling ensues and buoyancy is reduced. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not currently expected due to the limited areal extent and the marginal nature of the threat. ..Elliott/Thompson.. 09/07/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR... LAT...LON 45222223 47332190 48712217 49102234 49142152 49152040 49151939 49131899 45801934 45161987 44652037 44292109 44392187 45222223 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 7 23:41:06 UTC 2019.

MD 1937 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF THE OREGON AND WASHINGTON
Mesoscale Discussion 1937 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0636 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019 Areas affected...Portions of the Oregon and Washington Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 072336Z - 080200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are forecast to increase in coverage into the overnight. The strongest storms may pose a marginal risk of isolated strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail. DISCUSSION...Radar, satellite, and lightning trends suggest thunderstorms are gradually increasing in coverage and intensity along/near the crest of the Cascades in Oregon and Washington. Thunderstorm activity is expected to remain mostly isolated to widely scattered over the next several hours, before coverage increases markedly overnight as ascent associated with a negatively tilted trough further impinges on the area. The environment across the area is currently characterized by MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and effective bulk shear of 30-40 knots, which should promote semi-organized multicell thunderstorms (or transient supercell structures) that may be capable of producing isolated strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail over the next several hours. While thunderstorm coverage will increase overnight, intensity should decrease as boundary layer cooling ensues and buoyancy is reduced. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is not currently expected due to the limited areal extent and the marginal nature of the threat. ..Elliott/Thompson.. 09/07/2019 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OTX...PDT...SEW...PQR... LAT...LON 45222223 47332190 48712217 49102234 49142152 49152040 49151939 49131899 45801934 45161987 44652037 44292109 44392187 45222223 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 072320
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Sep 7 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette, located well west of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is expected to form early next week a few
hundred miles southwest of the southern coast of Mexico.
Environmental conditions appears conducive for gradual development,
and a tropical depression could form by the middle of next week
while it moves west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&

For additional information on Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette, please
see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service,
under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php

$$
Forecaster Blake

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 7 22:31:06 UTC 2019.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 20:35:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 07 Sep 2019 21:38:21 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 072034 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 129.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 28 X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) 25N 135W 34 X 5( 5) 21(26) 1(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 25N 135W 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 140W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 14(17) 1(18) X(18) 25N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 30N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 072034 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 Juliette has not produced any deep convection for almost 18 hours, and it is therefore being declared a post-tropical cyclone. A recent ASCAT-C pass showed a small area of 30-35 kt winds to the north of the center, and the initial intensity is therefore being set at 35 kt. A gradual spin down of the circulation is expected with Juliette remaining over waters of 24-25C during the next couple of days. After 48 hours, water temperatures do increase a bit to near 26C, but by then incredibly belligerent westerly shear, on the order of 40-50 kt, is expected to be affecting the remnant low. Still, the global models carry a low through the next 5 days, and that is reflected in the official forecast. The initial motion is 280/11 kt. The low should turn on a due west heading for the next 2-3 days, steered by the low-level trade winds. After day 3, the remnant low is expected to interact with a mid- to upper-level low northeast of the Hawaiian Islands, which could cause it to turn northwestward and slow down by day 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 07/2100Z 24.4N 129.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 08/0600Z 24.4N 131.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 08/1800Z 24.4N 133.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 09/0600Z 24.4N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 09/1800Z 24.4N 137.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 10/1800Z 24.6N 141.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 11/1800Z 26.0N 144.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 12/1800Z 27.5N 146.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 072034 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112019 2100 UTC SAT SEP 07 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 129.5W AT 07/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 129.5W AT 07/2100Z AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 128.9W FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 24.4N 131.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 24.4N 133.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.4N 135.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.4N 137.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.6N 141.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 26.0N 144.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 27.5N 146.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 129.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 072034 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette Advisory Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112019 1100 AM HST Sat Sep 07 2019 ...JULIETTE DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 129.5W ABOUT 1245 MI...2000 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Juliette was located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 129.5 West. Juliette is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected during the next few days, and the low's maximum winds should drop below gale force by tonight. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) to the north of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the post-tropical cyclone please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Berg

...JULIETTE DEGENERATES INTO A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM HST Sat Sep 7 the center of Juliette was located near 24.4, -129.5 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN CASCADES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will remain possible today from thunderstorms over parts of the central Plains, and near the northern Cascades. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk areas across the central Plains and Pacific Northwest. ..Gleason.. 09/07/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019/ ...Central Plains... A well-defined shortwave trough is moving quickly eastward today across eastern MT/WY. This feature will help to initiate scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening from parts of eastern CO and western KS into portions of SD/NE/MO/IA. Low-level winds are forecast to be relatively weak across the central Plains, limiting overall convective organization. However, multiple remnant surface boundaries should be sufficient for a few clusters of multicell and occasional supercell storms through the evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of isolated strong/severe storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Given the weak low-level winds and expectation of rather disorganized convective, will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk with only minor changes. ...Pacific Northwest... A rather deep upper trough is approaching the OR/CA coast today. Strengthening wind fields and cooling aloft will aid initiation of scattered thunderstorms over central OR/WA along and east of the Cascades. Organized severe storms are not expected. However, the strongest cells could result in gusty winds and hail for a few hours this afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN CASCADES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will remain possible today from thunderstorms over parts of the central Plains, and near the northern Cascades. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk areas across the central Plains and Pacific Northwest. ..Gleason.. 09/07/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019/ ...Central Plains... A well-defined shortwave trough is moving quickly eastward today across eastern MT/WY. This feature will help to initiate scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening from parts of eastern CO and western KS into portions of SD/NE/MO/IA. Low-level winds are forecast to be relatively weak across the central Plains, limiting overall convective organization. However, multiple remnant surface boundaries should be sufficient for a few clusters of multicell and occasional supercell storms through the evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of isolated strong/severe storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Given the weak low-level winds and expectation of rather disorganized convective, will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk with only minor changes. ...Pacific Northwest... A rather deep upper trough is approaching the OR/CA coast today. Strengthening wind fields and cooling aloft will aid initiation of scattered thunderstorms over central OR/WA along and east of the Cascades. Organized severe storms are not expected. However, the strongest cells could result in gusty winds and hail for a few hours this afternoon and evening. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN CASCADES... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind and hail will remain possible today from thunderstorms over parts of the central Plains, and near the northern Cascades. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the Marginal Risk areas across the central Plains and Pacific Northwest. ..Gleason.. 09/07/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Sat Sep 07 2019/ ...Central Plains... A well-defined shortwave trough is moving quickly eastward today across eastern MT/WY. This feature will help to initiate scattered thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening from parts of eastern CO and western KS into portions of SD/NE/MO/IA. Low-level winds are forecast to be relatively weak across the central Plains, limiting overall convective organization. However, multiple remnant surface boundaries should be sufficient for a few clusters of multicell and occasional supercell storms through the evening. Forecast soundings suggest a risk of isolated strong/severe storms capable of gusty/damaging winds and hail. Given the weak low-level winds and expectation of rather disorganized convective, will maintain the ongoing MRGL risk with only minor changes. ...Pacific Northwest... A rather deep upper trough is approaching the OR/CA coast today. Strengthening wind fields and cooling aloft will aid initiation of scattered thunderstorms over central OR/WA along and east of the Cascades. Organized severe storms are not expected. However, the strongest cells could result in gusty winds and hail for a few hours this afternoon and evening. Read more