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MD 2005 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 2005 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Areas affected...Portions of central and northern Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 162039Z - 162315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected this evening. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are expected to develop along or perhaps slightly behind a cold front across northern Minnesota late this afternoon or early this evening. This region continues to destabilize with MLCAPE around 750 to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE and it is expected to increase to as high as 1500 J/kg later this evening. Currently the airmass remains capped, but additional surface heating and cooling temperatures aloft should mostly eliminate inhibition by around 22 UTC. Once storms form, strong mid-level flow at least partially normal to the front should support a broken line of supercells. Instability will start to wane quickly after sunset and a drier airmass is present across Wisconsin. Therefore, storms may persist for a few hours after dark but are expected to weaken by late evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat from this activity. ..Bentley/Hart.. 08/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF... LAT...LON 48319083 48179010 48078967 47878965 47389035 46759087 46349152 45559288 45439399 45419512 45539551 45689571 46129523 47299386 48299245 48449212 48159152 48229110 48319083 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0332 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Valid 181200Z - 241200Z A weak upper low will continue to remain nearly stationary off the California coast into the weekend. Model guidance varies on the speed at which this feature will eventually move north/east. Much depends on the upper-level pattern evolution across the Northwest as well as the track of what is currently tropical storm Hillary in the eastern Pacific. That being said, uncertainty in the forecast increases markedly by early next week. Hot and dry conditions will return to Texas where fuels remain extremely dry. ...Northern California into the Northwest... Chances for thunderstorms will continue in to the weekend. Potential for wetting rainfall will increase with time, particularly in northern California. Depending on the upper-level trough in the Northwest, some mid-level moisture may be pushed eastward late this week. There is some potential for thunderstorms to develop in parts of central/northeast Oregon on Friday/Saturday, but storm coverage is not certain nor is how dry the storms will be. Critical fire weather will continue in the Columbia Basin as the mid-level winds increase across the Cascades on Friday. Potential for additional thunderstorms/rainfall will exist as tropical moisture moves northward. The timing and location of this activity is not certain as the GFS is faster and farther east than the ECMWF. Moisture could enter these areas late this weekend into potentially Tuesday/Wednesday. In either case, wetting rainfall seems probable with these storms. ...Montana... Another day of critical fire weather is possible for parts of western Montana on Friday. Strong westerly winds are expected ahead of a cold front. Models agree that cold front will not move through the area until late afternoon/early evening. RH could be marginal (around 20%), but winds of 20-25 mph will be possible. ...Texas... Very hot conditions will increase again for parts of western/central Texas. Winds are not expected to be overly strong underneath the upper-level ridge. As surface lows develop in the strong heating, there is some possibility for locally elevated fire weather conditions given the very dry fuels. ..Wendt.. 08/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 16 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 162034 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Fernanda Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 16 2023 Fernanda's weakening trend appears to be continuing. Deep convection remains minimal, and is confined to a few cells over the southwestern portion of the circulation while the system moves over marginal SSTs and into a dry low- to mid-level air mass. There have been no recent scatterometer overpasses from which to estimate intensity. Assuming a continued spin down of the circulation, the advisory intensity is set to a somewhat uncertain 45 kt. The cyclone has been moving just slightly south of due west or 260/12 kt. A mid-level ridge is forecast to remain established to the north of Fernanda through 72 hours. This should maintain a mostly westward track for the next few days. There is little change to the new official track forecast, which remains close to the multi-model dynamical consensus. Sea surface temperatures beneath the cyclone should gradually decrease and the environmental air mass is expected to become even drier over the next couple of days. Therefore, continued weakening is expected which should result in Fernanda degenerating into a post-tropical cyclone in 12 hours and dissipating within 72 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 16.8N 127.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 16.6N 130.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 17/1800Z 16.6N 132.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0600Z 16.7N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 16.7N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0600Z 16.7N 140.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 16 Aug 2023 20:34:57 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 16 Aug 2023 21:23:05 GMT

...FERNANDA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... As of 11:00 AM HST Wed Aug 16 the center of Fernanda was located near 16.8, -127.8 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...FAR WESTERN PART OF THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of damaging winds and hail are expected this afternoon and evening across parts Minnesota, Wisconsin, and western Upper Michigan. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook. ..Smith.. 08/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1109 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023/ ...MN/WI/Western Upper MI... Latest surface analysis shows a strong cold front surging southeastward across ND. Southerly low-level winds ahead of the front, along with shallow vertical mixing below a capping inversion, have resulted in a corridor of low-mid 60s dewpoints across much of MN. Strong daytime heating and steep mid-level lapse rates will yield afternoon MLCAPE values around 2500 J/kg. The cap will likely focus thunderstorm development to immediately along or even slightly behind the cold front, but given the strong winds aloft and focused convergence, a few intense bowing structures are expected. Damaging winds and hail appear to be the main threats. Storms will likely persist a few hours after dark and track into parts of northern/central WI and western Upper MI before weakening. ...southern GA/SC/FL... A very moist/unstable air mass will be present again today ahead of a cold front sagging into the southeast states. Winds aloft and large scale forcing are weak, suggesting convection will be relatively disorganized. Nevertheless, steep low-level lapse rates and water-loading will contribute to isolated instances of damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0214 PM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR COLUMBIA BASIN... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES... No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 08/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Aug 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level high pressure is forecast to continue building as it shifts eastward over the southern Rockies/Plains through the forecast period. To the west, a Pacific trough will overspread the Northwest, increasing mid-level flow into the Northern Rockies. Dry and windy conditions will favor elevated to critical fire-weather conditions across the Northwest and northern Rockies. Monsoon moisture will also support shower and thunderstorm chances over southern parts of the Pacific Northwest. ...Northwest and northern Rockies... As the upper ridge shifts eastward, flow aloft will turn westerly as a Pacific trough begins to approach. While initially modest, winds are forecast to gradually increase through the day. At the same time, a thermally induced surface pressure trough/weak lee cyclone will bolster low-level pressure gradients in the lee of the Cascades, through the Columbia Basin and into northern MT. This will result in downslope winds of 20-25 mph, along with afternoon RH values of 15-20%. Widespread elevated and critical conditions are likely over the Northwest and parts of the northern Rockies where fuels are quite dry. Confidence in critical conditions is highest across the western Columbia Basin where RH is forecast to be lower and winds slightly stronger. To the south, monsoon moisture will linger over parts of southern OR and northern CA, supporting scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. A mixed mode of wet and dry storms is expected with PWATS climbing above 1 inch and only modest storm speeds. However, area fuels remain very dry and receptive to lightning ignitions. While storms will tend to be come more efficient with wetting rains through the day, sufficient coverage should exist for isolated dry strikes outside of heavier cores across parts of southern OR and far northern CA. ...Central Texas... As the upper ridge rebuilds, very hot temperatures are expected across parts of TX and the southern Plains. Winds are forecast to remain weak, but temperatures well over 100F and exceptionally dry fuels may support a risk for locally elevated fire-weather conditions. Especially across central portions of the state, local winds may occasionally reach 10-15 mph. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 16 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Fernanda, located well to
the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, and has begun issuing advisories on newly formed
Tropical Storm Hilary, located several hundred miles
south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec
over the weekend. Some gradual development of this system is
possible thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Hilary are issued under WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Hilary are issued under WMO header WTPZ24
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Trees at the Minnesota Landscape Arboretum in Chaska were turning color and dropping their leaves early in mid-August due to stress from drought and/or heat. More borer damage occurred on trees that might not have happened otherwise. CBS Minnesota (Minneapolis) , Aug 15, 2023

The Lower Colorado River Authority entered Stage 2 drought response on Monday, Aug. 14, and asked all firm water customers (municipalities, water districts and industries) to curb their water use by 10% to 20% and to enact mandatory water restrictions. The combined storage in Lake Travis and Buchanan, the two water supply reservoirs in the Highland Lakes, dropped below 900,000 acre-feet over the weekend, putting them at 46% of capacity. Customers were urged to reduce landscape watering. KXAN Online (Austin, Texas), Aug 15, 2023

The Lower Colorado River Authority announced that Highland Lakes water will not be available in 2023 for most of its agricultural customers in Colorado, Wharton and Matagorda counties. Severe drought continues in the Texas Hill Country, affecting inflows and levels in the region’s water supply reservoirs at Lake Buchanan and Lake Travis. Agricultural customers in the Gulf Coast, Lakeside and Pierce Ranch operations lost access to Highland Lakes water this year, due to drought intensity and duration and the amount of water in the lakes. The combined water storage in Lakes Buchanan and Travis on March 1 was 1.037 million acre-feet, about 52% of capacity. LCRA remains in Stage 1 of its Drought Contingency Plan for Firm Water Customers, which began in July 2022. The combined storage in Lakes Buchanan and Travis was 1.2 million acre-feet, below the trigger of 1.4 million acre-feet, and interruptible supplies were curtailed. LCRA requested its firm customers voluntarily reduce their water use by 5% in July 2022. KXAN-TV NBC 36 (Austin, Texas), March 2, 2023

The town of Fairbury declared a water emergency. Lawn watering is permitted on an even/odd schedule depending on address. NewsChannel Nebraska (Grand Island), Aug 15, 2023

WW 0649 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 649 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 S RDU TO 20 SSE RZZ. ..KERR..08/15/23 ATTN...WFO...RAH...GSP...RNK...CAE... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 649 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NCC065-083-101-163-191-195-152340- NC . NORTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE EDGECOMBE HALIFAX JOHNSTON SAMPSON WAYNE WILSON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 649 SEVERE TSTM NC SC VA 151750Z - 160100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 649 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 150 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Central North Carolina Northern South Carolina South Central Virginia * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity through the afternoon, with multiple clusters of severe storms possible. Locally damaging wind gusts are the main threat. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 45 statute miles north and south of a line from 25 miles west northwest of Charlotte NC to 10 miles northeast of Roanoke Rapids NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more

The Town of Strasburg declared a drought emergency condition due to the low level of the North Fork of the Shenandoah River, the main water source for the town. This is the first drought emergency since 2017. The river’s seven-day average flow had dropped to 70 cfs as of Aug. 9, which led to the drought emergency declaration. The aim is to reduce daily water demand by 10% to 15% through mandatory water restrictions. The level of the North Fork River in Strasburg Aug. 15 was 1.7 feet which is not far above the record low of 1.5 feet set in February of 1934. WHSV Online (Harrisonburg, Va.), Aug 15, 2023

MD 2003 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA.
Mesoscale Discussion 2003 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0451 PM CDT Tue Aug 15 2023 Areas affected...parts of the Florida Panhandle...southeastern Alabama and southwest Georgia. Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 152151Z - 152345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms have produced occasional damaging gusts this afternoon and will likely remain capable of isolated wind damage into this evening. Given the lack of storm organization, a weather watch is not anticipated. DISCUSSION...Across portions of the Southeast, scattered to numerous thunderstorms were ongoing ahead of a frontal zone across the FL Panhandle, southeast AL and southwest GA. Over the last couple of hours, occasional strong to severe gusts (59 mph at KMAI) have been noted with a few of these storms. A strongly unstable environment, with 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE is supporting, and is expected to continue supporting, strong updrafts through this evening. However, with little vertical shear, storm organization has remained limited to pulse multi-cell clusters. The strong buoyancy and PWATs over 2 inches will support the risk for isolated wet microbursts with the strongest storms. Isolated damaging gusts will remain possible into this evening before nocturnal stabilization begins to limit the potential for strong updrafts. Given the limited potential for storm organizational, and the lack of broader synoptic support, a weather watch is unlikely. ..Lyons/Guyer.. 08/15/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 30858645 30968642 31348582 31618541 31948486 32048454 32078339 31948295 31818298 31328325 30768386 30488430 30358475 30298536 30438605 30628638 30698642 30858645 Read more

WW 0651 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0651 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 651 SEVERE TSTM NC CW 152145Z - 160500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 651 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 545 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern North Carolina Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning from 545 PM until 100 AM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to progress generally east-northeastward toward eastern North Carolina through the evening, with the stronger storms capable of wind damage and possibly some hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles south of Fayetteville NC to 35 miles north northeast of Cape Hatteras NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 649...WW 650... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 25025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0650 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 650 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE RZZ TO 35 SW DOV TO 20 N TTN. ..KERR..08/15/23 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 650 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DEC001-005-152240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT SUSSEX MDC011-015-019-037-039-045-047-152240- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CAROLINE CECIL DORCHESTER ST. MARYS SOMERSET WICOMICO WORCESTER NJC001-005-007-009-011-015-021-025-029-033-152240- NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATLANTIC BURLINGTON CAMDEN CAPE MAY CUMBERLAND GLOUCESTER Read more

WW 650 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NC NJ PA VA CW 151810Z - 160100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 650 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 210 PM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Delaware Eastern Maryland Northeast North Carolina Central and Southern New Jersey Southeast Pennsylvania Eastern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Some of the storms will become severe, posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north of Trenton NJ to 15 miles east of Roanoke Rapids NC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 649... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 26030. ...Hart Read more