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Residents of Frederick City were urged to curb their water use by 10% in September. Frederick City and Frederick County remained in the drought watch issued by the Maryland Department of the Environment. WUSA9 (Washington, D.C.), Sept 6, 2023

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0157 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2023 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z The potential for critical fire weather conditions remains low across the country through the extended period. Long-range ensemble guidance continues to show a building upper-level ridge over the Southwest/northern Mexico through the weekend, followed by a gradual ridge breakdown and an amplifying longwave trough east of the Rockies. This synoptic regime will favor a continuation of warm, dry conditions from west TX into the Four Corners through D4/Sunday, which should favor a slow curing of fuels and may support local fire weather concerns. Rain chances will increase across the Plains and Southwest beginning D5/Monday, limiting the fire weather potential through the remainder of the week. Ensemble precipitation forecasts show low probability for wetting rainfall across much of the West Coast and Pacific Northwest, suggesting some drying will occur across these regions. However, there are currently no appreciable signals for strong synoptic systems that would support widespread 20+ mph winds, which limits confidence in the fire weather potential. ..Moore.. 09/07/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Drought in Iowa has slowed or halted grass growth, so there has been little need for mowing in a while. As a result, the webs of grass spiders were present in many yards. Radio Iowa (Des Moines), Sept 7, 2023

Just three boat ramps remained open on Canyon Lake as the lake was at 892.02 feet, exceeding the previous low recorded when the lake dropped to 892.68 feet on Sept. 9, 2009, per a spokesperson for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Twenty boat ramps were closed. KSAT 12 Online (San Antonio, Texas), Sept 7, 2023

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1256 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z An isolated dry-thunderstorm risk area is introduced for portions of west to northwest Texas. Latest CAM ensemble guidance has trended towards a higher probability and coverage of thunderstorms in the vicinity of the surface low over northwest TX tomorrow afternoon. Forecast soundings depict very dry boundary-layer conditions featuring LCL heights between 3.5 to 4 km and 50-60 F dewpoint depressions. These profiles will greatly limit rainfall amounts and promote dry lightning over a region with dry fuels. One conditionality is the potential for thunderstorms over the next 12-18 hours across this region; however, a similar thermodynamic environment today should yield very isolated patches of wetting rain, and is not expected to drastically alter the fuel landscape. ..Moore.. 09/07/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1236 AM CDT Thu Sep 07 2023/ ...Synopsis... A slight westward shift in the upper-level ridge is expected on Friday. The surface pattern will remain relatively similar in the southern High Plains, though the surface low may shift farther south and east. ...Southern High Plains... Dry and breezy conditions will again be possible both north and south of the surface trough. Only marginally elevated conditions are probable to the north of the trough in the Texas Panhandle, as winds will be upslope and temperatures will be cooler than on Thursday. Winds to the south of the trough are expected to be weak. There is some additional potential for a thunderstorm or two to develop within the surface trough. While any storm that develops would likely be dry, coverage appears to be much less than 10% at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Thu Sep 07 2023 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE SABINE RIVER VALLEY...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms, associated with a marginal severe threat, will be possible on Friday across parts of the Northeast, Central Appalachians, Mid-Atlantic, Ark-La-Tex and Northern High Plains. ...Southeastern Oklahoma/eastern Texas/southwestern Arkansas/western Louisiana... Thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas region, possibly accompanied by some ongoing potential for strong winds/hail. A strong model signal remains apparent that storms will shift southward with time, strengthening gradually as daytime heating results in a corridor of moderate instability. Given a belt of 35 to 45 kt mid-level north-northwesterly flow around the eastern fringe of the southwestern U.S. upper ridge, potential for an organized MCS moving quickly southward roughly along the Sabine River Valley through the day may evolve. In this scenario, potential for damaging winds would be expected, along with some hail, with the risk shifting southward and likely reaching the Gulf Coast by late afternoon. While less certain, some hints exist within some models that late evening/overnight redevelopment of storms could occur on the western flank/remnant outflow from this initial band of storms, across the north-central Texas vicinity, with potential for a second/southeastward-moving MCS. These storms -- should they develop/organize, could also pose risk for hail and damaging winds through the overnight period. ...The Northeast and Mid-Atlantic region... Afternoon heating/destabilization is expected along and east of the Appalachians Friday, near a weak/stalled surface front. Terrain-induced ascent, and lift near the front, will result in scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon, particularly from the mountains of Virginia and West Virginia northeastward into New England. With a belt of 25 to 35 kt south-southwesterly flow across this area, on the eastern fringe of the mid-level trough positioned over the Midwest/Tennessee Valley, shear will support a few organized storms/storm clusters. As these clusters shift northeastward, locally damaging wind gusts can be expected, lingering into the early evening hours before storms begin to nocturnally weaken. ...Northern Intermountain region... Daytime heating across the northern Intermountain region will result in modest destabilization, with mixed-layer CAPE averaging 500 J/kg during the afternoon atop a deep mixed layer. As a short-wave trough at mid levels sweeps eastward across the region, isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected, with peak convective coverage anticipated from late afternoon through mid evening. With a belt of 30 to 40 kt mid-level westerlies accompanying the short-wave trough, and potential for sub-cloud evaporative effects, a few stronger/longer-lived storms may produce gusty/locally damaging winds. ..Goss.. 09/07/2023 Read more

Drought forced a farm and garden center in Homer Glen to replant their sunflower fields this summer. Homer Glen-Lockport, IL Patch, Sept 5, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 071709
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 7 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Jova, located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Trees in northern Virginia began to turn colors in early September, although the usual time for leaf color would be mid-October. In the Bull Run Mountains, poplar tree leaves turned brown and dropped early. Some of the herbaceous ground cover along back roads was so dry that it looked like it had been sprayed with an herbicide. Prince William Times (Warrenton, Va.), Sept 6, 2023

The Pearl River Valley Water Supply District has asked for water conservation in Madison and Rankin counties. WAPT Channel 16 Online (Jackson, Miss.), Sept 6, 2023

The Mississippi River dropped nearly eight feet over the course of a month. At Vicksburg, barges in front of the docks were used to help load barges in deeper water. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has also been using 22 dredging vessels to deepen a channel for navigation. Shipping companies were loading vessels with less cargo so the draft was not so deep. WAPT Channel 16 Online (Jackson, Miss.), Sept 6, 2023

Crops, such as cotton, corn and soybeans, were affected by the drought in Mississippi, as are cattle. Grass has dried up, and there is a potential hay shortage looming for winter. WJTV TV 12 (Jackson, Miss.), Sept 6, 2023

Lake Wichita was so low that boating has almost ended on the lake because boats cannot be launched, apart from kayaks. The water was too low for fishermen to be able to fish from piers. KAUZ-TV CBS 6 (Wichita Falls, Texas), Sept 6, 2023

A drought watch has been issued in Maryland for the northern tier of counties, due to lower-than-normal stream flows and groundwater levels for this time of year. Voluntary water conservation is encouraged. Maryland Department of the Environment (Baltimore), July 10, 2023

St. Paul Regional Water Services asked residents to observe new lawn and garden watering rules effective Sept. 7 as drought persisted. Outdoor watering may be done on an even/odd schedule and to water before noon or after 6 p.m. KARE 11 Online (Minneapolis, Minn.), Sept 6, 2023

WW 0672 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0672 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Sep 6 22:26:04 UTC 2023.

WW 672 SEVERE TSTM AR LA MS 062225Z - 070400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 672 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 525 PM CDT Wed Sep 6 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southeast Arkansas Extreme northeast Louisiana Northern into west central Mississippi * Effective this Wednesday afternoon and evening from 525 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to form and spread south-southeastward through early tonight, with the potential to produce occasional damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail near 1 inch in diameter. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 65 miles south of Greenville MS to 45 miles north northeast of Oxford MS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 34020. ...Thompson Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2023 20:40:26 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Sep 2023 20:40:27 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 062038 TCDEP1 Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 300 PM MDT Wed Sep 06 2023 Jova continues to rapidly intensify this afternoon. High-resolution 1-minute GOES visible and infrared imagery depicts a strengthening major hurricane with a pinhole eye surrounded by very deep convection. As expected with a small eye forming, satellite intensity estimates have increased this afternoon to T6.0 from TAFB. Given the deep convection and small pinhole eye, the initial intensity for this advisory is set to 115 kt. Jova continues to rapidly intensify, with a 60-kt increase over the past 24 hours. Environmental conditions continue to be conducive for rapid intensification (RI), with low vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures along the forecast track. Statistical models, DTOPS and SHIPS, continue to show high probabilities above the climatological mean for RI to continue during the next 12 to 24 hours. Therefore, following these statistical models and RI probabilities, the peak intensity forecast has been raised to 135 kt. After that time, hard-to-predict eyewall replacement cycles could cause some fluctuations in intensity. The intensity forecast lies above the consensus aids in the short term, given the favorable environmental conditions. In about 2 to 3 days, Jova is forecast to cross over much cooler SSTs and encounter some drier mid-level air, which should induce weakening. Jova is moving a little bit faster with an initial motion of west-northwestward at 13 kt. Jova is moving along the southern periphery of a mid-level ridge centered over northern Mexico. The hurricane is expected to continue moving west-northwestward as it rounds the southwestern edge of the high through the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, except for a slightly faster forward speed. The forecast lies between the faster HCCA, and the TVCE consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 14.9N 111.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 15.6N 113.7W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 16.7N 116.3W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 17.8N 118.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 19.0N 121.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 20.3N 124.2W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 21.7N 126.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 24.0N 129.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 25.4N 133.4W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly