Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0408 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Valid 141200Z - 201200Z A weak upper level low will continue to drift north and west into next week. This will occur within a dominant upper ridge across the West. The strongest upper-level winds will generally exist along the Canadian border. Later in the week, another trough may approach the Northwest and phase with the weak upper-level low off the western coast. ...Montana... The overall character of the upper-level pattern has continued to vary within guidance over the past day. The GFS has trended away from the ECMWF in terms of the amplitude of the trough digging southward out of the Canadian Prairie early to mid next week. This has resulted in more uncertainty in the timing and magnitude of surface features in the northern Plains vicinity. Even so, the strong upper-level flow remaining along the international border seems probable to promote surface low/trough development that will drive downslope winds in the lee of the northern Rockies. The potential for critical fire weather will exist in parts of western Montana on Wednesday and Thursday. Given the run-to-run variability in guidance, highlights will be withheld this outlook. ...Northern California into the Northwest... The evolution of the upper low will be the main forecast challenge during the period. The feature is forecast to slowly drift north and west. Isolated thunderstorms are possible in parts of northern California beginning on Monday with perhaps some activity lasting into Tuesday as well. Thunderstorms will be possible in Oregon starting Tuesday. Mid-level moisture will also stream northwest with time and allow more convective activity to occur into the middle of the week. Weak disturbances associated with the upper low may also aid in thunderstorm development, but predictability of these features is low. Towards the end of the week, guidance still suggests that cyclonic flow will increase off the Northwest coast. As this occurs, it is likely that the weak low will phase with the approaching trough. There are differences between the GFS and ECMWF, but the general trend has been for the trough to extend farther south than previous runs. This would tend to keep some parts of the Northwest at risk for thunderstorms while also making development in northern California more of a possibility. Some consideration was given to adding isolated dry thunder probabilities to northern California for Monday, but storm motions may be slow enough that more of a mixed wet/dry mode occurs. Storm motions could increase later in the week into the weekend. These time periods will need to be monitored. Confidence in adding highlights still remains low, however, as model variability remains high. In addition to dry thunderstorms, dry and windy conditions may occur as a thermal surface pressure trough develops in the Columbia Basin during most afternoons next week. Elevated conditions will be possible, but the overall lack of synoptic support suggests critical conditions will likely be localized. ...Texas... A cold front should help temperatures moderate early next week. Surface high pressure in the area should also keep winds light. Temperatures will again increase by the end of the week. Conditions will need to be monitored for enough increase in winds to increase fire danger. Furthermore, at least isolated thunderstorms appear possible late next week. ..Wendt.. 08/12/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 12 Aug 2023 20:37:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 12 Aug 2023 21:22:57 GMT

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 122034 TCDEP2 Tropical Depression Seven-E Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has attained sufficient organization to be classified as a tropical depression. The last couple of microwave satellite overpasses show a similar scenario, with cold convective curved bands becoming better organized around a low-level center, which appears to be located near the northern edge of the convective cloud mass based on recent visible satellite images. The latest TAFB subjective Dvorak estimate is T-2.0. Based on these data, Invest 98E is upgraded to Tropical Depression Seven-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt. Weak mid-level ridging well to the north of the depression will steer the cyclone toward the west-northwest at about 10 kt over the next few days. Beyond 72 h, the ridge should strengthen enough to cause a turn to the west with a slight increase in forward speed. The NHC forecast track is in best agreement with the HCCA and TVCE consensus models. Environmental conditions are quite favorable for strengthening over the next 48-60 h, with warm ocean temperatures, low vertical wind shear and a relatively moist low to mid-level troposphere. The NHC forecast peaks the system at 75 kt in 48-60 h, which is near the middle of the intensity guidance. The ECMWF version of the SHIPS RI index shows a 52 percent chance of a 65 kt increase in winds over the next 72 h, so there is a chance the cyclone could strengthen more than forecast. After that time, the cyclone is forecast to move into a much drier environment along with slowly decreasing sea-surface temperatures. There is high confidence on significant weakening beyond 72 h due to the very dry airmass that the cyclone will be moving into. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 14.9N 113.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 15.2N 114.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 15.5N 115.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 15.7N 117.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 16.1N 119.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 15/0600Z 16.6N 120.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 17.1N 122.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 17.6N 127.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 17/1800Z 17.8N 133.1W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 12 2023 943 FOPZ12 KNHC 122033 PWSEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023 2100 UTC SAT AUG 12 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 115W 34 23 54(77) X(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) 15N 115W 50 1 14(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) 15N 115W 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 10(11) 36(47) 12(59) X(59) X(59) 15N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 9(20) X(20) X(20) 15N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 8(15) 1(16) X(16) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 10(11) 8(19) X(19) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) X(21) 20N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 6(12) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG

Issued at 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 122033 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Seven-E Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072023 300 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 2023 ...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 300 PM MDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.9N 113.2W ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 PM MDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Seven-E was located near latitude 14.9 North, longitude 113.2 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue for the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is expected, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm tonight and a hurricane in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Hagen/Berg

...NEW TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE OPEN EAST PACIFIC... As of 3:00 PM MDT Sat Aug 12 the center of Seven-E was located near 14.9, -113.2 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 12 2023 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 122032 TCMEP2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072023 2100 UTC SAT AUG 12 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 113.2W AT 12/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 113.2W AT 12/2100Z AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 112.6W FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 15.2N 114.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 15.5N 115.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 15.7N 117.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 16.1N 119.2W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.6N 120.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.1N 122.8W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 25SE 25SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 17.6N 127.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 17.8N 133.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 113.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HAGEN/BERG

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Valid 122000Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OHIO INTO PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN/SOUTHERN NEW YORK... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... The most concentrated area of severe-thunderstorm threats into evening extends from northeast Ohio across parts of Pennsylvania and into central New York, with damaging to severe wind expected, along with large hail and a few tornadoes. Other severe storms capable of large hail and/or damaging gusts are possible across parts of the Great Plains into this evening. ...Great Lakes/Northeast area... The main changes for this area were to expand the Slight (level 2 of 5) and Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk areas southward a small amount across the New Jersey vicinity. This is to account for latest trends in observations and CAMs guidance. Otherwise, scattered severe storms continue across Tornado Watch 634 from northern OH into PA and western/central NY. Reference forthcoming MCD 1969 for short term severe potential. ...Mid-South and OH/TN Valley vicinity... Risk probabilities have been trimmed from portions of southeast MO/northeast AR into western/Middle TN and western/central KY where airmass modification by earlier convection has resulted in widespread MLCINH. Severe potential is expected to remain low across these areas the remainder of the period. ...Southern Appalachians/Carolinas... The Slight (level 2 of 5) risk has been trimmed across parts of TN/AL behind ongoing convective clusters. However, severe potential is expected to persist eastward into western/west-central NC/SC through this evening. Damaging gusts will be the main hazard expected with forward-propagating clusters. As a result, severe probabilities have been expanded eastward, with a gradual weakening trend expected as storms move into central NC/SC. ...SD/NE... A Slight risk (level 2 of 5) has been added to portions of southwest SD into north-central NE. Latest CAMs guidance suggest isolated supercells capable of large hail will develop and move east/southeast off the Black Hills late this afternoon/evening. Boundary-layer moisture will remain somewhat modest but will continue to increase through the evening, aiding in continued destabilization. With time, convection may grow upscale into a small bow as it tracks near the SD/NE border. This process should be aided by an increasing southerly low-level jet this evening. A few damaging/severe gusts may accompany this activity. Reference MCD 1968 for short term severe information. ...Southern Plains... The Marginal (level 1 of 2) risk has been expanded southward a small amount across OK. A differential heating zone and outflow from prior convection is oriented across the region and visible satellite and current radar indicate a band of developing storms from the southern TX Panhandle into southwest and central OK. Damaging gusts will be the main concern with this activity given generally weak vertical shear and a deeply mixed boundary-layer across the hot side of the differential heating zone. See MCD 1967 for more details in short term severe potential across the southern High Plains. ..Leitman.. 08/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023/ ...Southern Great Lakes into the Northeast... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough moving across the northern Great Lakes with a belt of stronger flow moving through the southern Great Lakes. Scattered thunderstorms will likely continue to develop through midday into the afternoon with the stronger storms becoming capable of a hail/wind threat. Forecast soundings show some low-level hodograph curvature, especially with northeast extent from northeast OH into PA and NY. Supercells will likely evolve from the stronger updrafts and pose a large to very large hail threat. It is with the supercells from the northern half of PA/northeast OH into southern NY where a tornado risk will seemingly focus this afternoon. As a surface cold front pushes east, additional storms are possible along the front and some of these will probably have an attendant hail/wind risk before weakening this evening. ...South-central Great Plains... In agreement with the previously issued forecast, expected widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms to initially develop over the eastern slopes of the Sangre de Cristos into the Raton Mesa region, and perhaps over intensely heated Plains areas of the northwestern TX Panhandle and northeastern NM. Activity then should move eastward and coalesce into one or more complexes, with severe wind the main concern, and isolated large hail possible. Upscale growth will probably occur during the evening with the severe wind risk spreading from southeastern CO and the OK/ northern TX Panhandles across southern KS and northern OK as it moves into richer moisture and large CAPE. In KS/OK, severe-gust potential should decrease with eastward extent tonight as activity encounters a gradually stabilizing boundary layer, but uncertainty exists over cold-pool strength vs. CINH and how fast the threat will diminish. ...TN Valley/Southeast... An ongoing thunderstorm cluster over KY/TN will continue to move east-southeast with scattered to numerous thunderstorms expected in the area centered over the TN Valley. Widespread 3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE in areas slightly removed from ongoing midday storms will favor the potential for clusters to be capable of strongly water-loaded downdrafts. Damaging to locally severe gusts will be the main concern. ...North-central Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms should develop this afternoon near the Black Hills vicinity. Supercells are possible given the strength of deep-layer shear. Isolated severe gusts and hail will be possible. This activity will diminish overnight and with southeastward extent, as the inflow layer stabilizes and becomes more elevated. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0210 PM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z No changes to the ongoing forecast. ..Wendt.. 08/12/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0155 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023/ ...Synopsis... Across the southern CONUS, high pressure will remain in place while intensifying across the West Coast. Very hot temperatures are expected beneath the ridge across TX and OK, into parts of the West, ahead of a cold front associated with a passing trough over the central CONUS. Elevated fire-weather conditions are possible across parts of the southern Plains and Cascades. Thunderstorms are also expected over much of the western Great Basin into portions of northern CA. ...Southern Plains... Similar to the previous days, extreme temperatures over 100 F are again expected beneath the upper ridge across parts of TX and OK. The glancing influence of the passing upper trough will help bolster surface winds by deepening a weak surface low across southwestern OK and western North TX. 10-15 mph southerly winds, with locally higher gusts, are expected along with the extreme temperatures and surface RH below 30%. Exceptionally dry fuels, along with the hot and breezy conditions, will support several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions Sunday. A few thunderstorms are also possible late in the afternoon with gusty winds and occasional lightning. Storm coverage should remain isolated through the afternoon, before increasing in the evening ahead of an approaching cold front. As the cold front moves south, locally gusty and erratic winds may accompany the frontal passage, but rapidly recovering RH values and wetting rain potential behind it should diminish the fire-weather threat into early Monday. ...Northwest... Building high pressure near the coast and a deepening surface trough will likely support a few hours of dry and breezy conditions from southwest WA into portions of northern CA. Winds may briefly reach 15+ mph, especially through terrain-enhanced gaps of the Cascades and Coastal Ranges, concurrent with afternoon RH below 30-35%. Temporal and spatial coverage of more sustained elevated conditions is expected to remain low. Though, a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather concerns are possible within critically dry fuels. Low thunderstorm chances are expected across parts of northern CA Sunday afternoon through the overnight hours as monsoon moisture moves northward. Confidence in storm coverage is low with limited synoptic forcing for ascent. However, the increasing moisture and orographic circulations may support a few drier storms with the potential for lightning into areas of dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 12 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a low pressure system located several hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, and it appears that a tropical depression or tropical
storm could be forming. If these trends continue, advisories would
likely be initiated on this system later today. The low is expected
to move westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the
central portion of the basin during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western East Pacific (EP99):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Conditions
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next few days while moving
toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph across the far
western portion of the basin, crossing into the Central Pacific
basin late Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central
America and the southern coast of Mexico in a couple of days from
a tropical wave currently moving across the southern portion of
Central America. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while
it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast
of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Aug 12 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to become better organized in
association with a low pressure system located several hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula, and it appears that a tropical depression or tropical
storm could be forming. If these trends continue, advisories would
likely be initiated on this system later today. The low is expected
to move westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the
central portion of the basin during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western East Pacific (EP99):
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Conditions
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next few days while moving
toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph across the far
western portion of the basin, crossing into the Central Pacific
basin late Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central
America and the southern coast of Mexico in a couple of days from
a tropical wave currently moving across the southern portion of
Central America. Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while
it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast
of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen

Comal County also issued an emergency declaration on Aug. 11 due to steadily increasing fire danger during the last month. KENS 5 (San Antonio, Texas), Aug 11, 2023

The Bandera city council met and opted to close the city park and restrict swimming in the Medina River due to poor water quality. The river was no longer flowing, leaving the water in pools, in which organisms can multiply. The public was reminded to conserve water. KENS 5 (San Antonio, Texas), Aug 11, 2023

Farmers on either side of the Mississippi River in Minnesota and Wisconsin report only meager rainfall from early May through July 22. Crop germination may have failed or been inconsistent. The height of corn plants varies by several feet. Soybeans were smaller than usual. Herbicides did not get enough moisture to activate. La Crosse Tribune (Wis.), Aug 1, 2023

WW 0628 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0628 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 628 SEVERE TSTM IA MN 112145Z - 120300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 628 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 445 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northern Iowa Southwest Minnesota * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 445 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Scattered supercells may persist through late evening as the storms spread southeastward from southwest Minnesota toward northern Iowa. Large hail of 1-2 inches in diameter and wind damage with 60-70 mph winds will be the main severe threats. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 15 miles west northwest of Redwood Falls MN to 45 miles east southeast of Spencer IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 625...WW 626...WW 627... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 31030. ...Thompson Read more

WW 0625 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 625 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1949 ..WEINMAN..08/11/23 ATTN...WFO...DMX...OAX...EAX...TOP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 625 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC003-039-053-071-129-137-145-159-173-175-112240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CLARKE DECATUR FREMONT MILLS MONTGOMERY PAGE RINGGOLD TAYLOR UNION KSC005-013-027-029-041-043-045-061-085-087-091-103-117-131-143- 149-161-177-197-201-209-112240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATCHISON BROWN CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON DONIPHAN DOUGLAS GEARY JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON LEAVENWORTH MARSHALL NEMAHA OTTAWA POTTAWATOMIE RILEY SHAWNEE WABAUNSEE WASHINGTON WYANDOTTE Read more

WW 625 SEVERE TSTM IA KS MO NE 111735Z - 120100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 625 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Iowa Northeast Kansas Northwest Missouri Southeast Nebraska * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until 800 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 4 inches in diameter likely Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast to develop this afternoon and persist into the early evening. The stronger storms will become supercellular and be capable of large to giant hail along with a risk for severe gusts. A localized risk for a tornado could develop during the early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles northwest of Lamoni IA to 20 miles west southwest of Topeka KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Smith Read more

WW 0627 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 627 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SW STC TO 55 ESE BRD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1951 ..WEINMAN..08/11/23 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MPX...DLH... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 627 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC005-089-191-112240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALLAMAKEE HOWARD WINNESHIEK MNC003-009-019-025-037-039-045-049-053-055-059-065-079-085-093- 095-099-109-115-123-131-139-141-143-145-147-157-161-163-169-171- 112240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANOKA BENTON CARVER CHISAGO DAKOTA DODGE FILLMORE GOODHUE HENNEPIN HOUSTON ISANTI KANABEC LE SUEUR MCLEOD MEEKER MILLE LACS MOWER OLMSTED PINE RAMSEY RICE SCOTT SHERBURNE SIBLEY Read more

WW 627 SEVERE TSTM IA MN WI 111925Z - 120300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 627 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 225 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Northeast Iowa Southeast and central Minnesota Western Wisconsin * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 225 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Several strong to severe thunderstorm clusters are forecast to develop and pose a risk for large hail and damaging gusts. A few supercells are also possible and may pose a locally higher hail risk. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85 statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles northeast of Saint Cloud MN to 50 miles south southwest of La Crosse WI. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 625...WW 626... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29035. ...Smith Read more