Aggregator

WW 0626 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 626 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW ANB TO 15 SSW CSG TO 45 WSW VDI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1950 ..WEINMAN..08/11/23 ATTN...WFO...BMX...TAE...FFC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 626 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ALC001-005-011-021-037-045-047-051-067-069-081-085-087-101-109- 113-123-112240- AL . ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE AUTAUGA BARBOUR BULLOCK CHILTON COOSA DALE DALLAS ELMORE HENRY HOUSTON LEE LOWNDES MACON MONTGOMERY PIKE RUSSELL TALLAPOOSA GAC007-017-019-037-061-071-075-081-095-099-155-177-201-205-239- 243-259-261-273-277-287-307-315-321-112240- GA . GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BAKER BEN HILL BERRIEN CALHOUN CLAY COLQUITT COOK CRISP DOUGHERTY Read more

WW 626 SEVERE TSTM AL GA 111910Z - 120000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 626 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 PM EDT Fri Aug 11 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeastern Alabama Southwestern Georgia * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will continue to develop and intensify this afternoon across the watch area. Small thunderstorm clusters will pose a risk for damaging gusts through the afternoon and into the early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Troy AL to 40 miles northeast of Moultrie GA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 625... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 31020. ...Smith Read more

MD 1951 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 627... FOR SOUTHEASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1951 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Areas affected...southeastern MN and western WI Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 627... Valid 112100Z - 112300Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 627 continues. SUMMARY...The severe weather threat is increasing across WW 627. Damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible. DISCUSSION...Multiple strong/severe thunderstorms are ongoing across the northern periphery of WW 627. Several wind events have been reported -- including a measured 76 mph gust at in Kanabec County (KJMR) -- as well as hailstones up to 2" in diameter. These storms have evolved along/just ahead of a cold front and maintained semi-discrete/supercellular structures for the last couple of hours. Additional convection initiation is now underway to the southwest of these damaging storms. The downstream environment is characterized by MLCAPE around 1500 J/kg and bulk shear around 50 kts. With long and straight northwesterly hodographs (currently observed at KMPX), this environment will be favorable for splitting supercell structures capable of producing severe hail and wind gusts. Both of these risks should maximize over the Twin Cities metro and the southeastern vicinity this afternoon. Thereafter, a gradual transition to a primarily wind threat is expected this evening as the system congeals along the cold front. ..Flournoy.. 08/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX... LAT...LON 44309484 44759493 45279453 45919376 46089292 46009220 45519129 44449075 43419079 43059142 43249268 43729398 44309484 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Upper-level ridging will be the dominant feature across the West through most of the extended period. A weak, remnant tropical low will also be present off the west coast and will generally move northwestward until eventually phasing with the stronger westerlies perhaps by the end of next weekend. Cold fronts are expected to move into the southern Plains both late this weekend and late next week. ...Northern California into the Northwest... The primary concern during the extended period will be the evolution of the weak, tropical remnant low currently off the California coast. This feature is forecast to slowly retrograde northwestward with time. A few perturbations within this circulation may spark isolated thunderstorm development in parts of northern California into Oregon. Some of these storms may be on the drier side, but storms motions may also be slow. Though predictability is low, current forecast data suggest northern California will see relatively greater thunderstorm coverage this Monday with Oregon increasing on Tuesday. While this low retrogrades west, a lull in thunderstorm activity is possible. Later in the week, model guidance suggests that cyclonic flow will increase off the Northwest coast. At that time, the weak upper low is expected to phase with the broader upper trough. Some thunderstorm risk would be possible late next week in the northern California and parts of the Northwest. Again, predictability is quite low this far in advance to highlight any dry thunderstorm risk. As mid-level winds increase along the Canadian border into northern Washington on Tuesday, there is some potential for dry and windy conditions within the Cascade gaps into the Columbia Basin as a thermal surface pressure trough develops in the Basin. Guidance has not been overly consistent in this signal so probabilities will be withheld for now. ...Texas... Winds are anticipated to be weaker over the next several days. Some increase could occur as a cold front approaches this Sunday. As the front passes, winds will generally turn more northerly into the middle of next week. Another front is currently forecast to move into the southern Plains towards the end of next week. With hot conditions expected ahead of the front, it is possible that isolated thunderstorms could develop during the afternoon perhaps Thursday/Friday. Some lighting could occur at least outside precipitation cores and area fuels would certainly continue to support ignitions. The overall potential for critical fire weather remains too low for highlights, however. ...Northern Rockies... A strong trough will move through the northern Rockies into the northern Plains around the middle of next week. A strong surface pressure gradient will develop along with a deepening surface low in the northern Plains. Strong downslope winds are probable along the lee of the terrain in western Montana. Some precipitation is possible in the area with a cold front moving through the area late Saturday into Sunday. Probabilities will be withheld for now given some potential impact on fuels from this precipitation. ..Wendt.. 08/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1950 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 626... FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AL AND WESTERN GA
Mesoscale Discussion 1950 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Areas affected...portions of eastern AL and western GA Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 626... Valid 112042Z - 112245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 626 continues. SUMMARY...Strong/severe thunderstorms are expected to persist across WW 626 for the next few hours. Damaging wind gusts and small hail will be the primary threats. DISCUSSION...Multiple thunderstorm complexes are currently ongoing in eastern AL and western GA in WW 626. They have been associated with both strong/severe wind (primarily tree and power line damage) and quarter-size hail reports. The leading storm -- currently located in Stewart County -- featured a robust mesocyclone for around an hour before weakening to its current state. The complex in its wake also contained multiple weaker low-level mesocyclones early in its evolution, likely due to its formation near/along the remnant outflow from the morning QLCS (now moving offshore in SC). The environment ahead of these thunderstorms remains favorable for damaging wind and hail production. The latest VADs from KEOX depict modest low-level shear (around 15-20 kts in the 0-3-km layer) amidst ample MLCAPE (3000+ J/kg). Bulk shear is expected to remain more marginal however, around 15 kts. This should favor a gradually congealing system during the next couple of hours. Current storm-scale trends support this evolution, depicting spreading outflow and cold-pool deficits around 15 degrees F. This should yield a gradual transition from a mixed hail/wind threat to more of a damaging-wind threat for the next few hours across WW 626. ..Flournoy.. 08/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...JAX...FFC...TAE...BMX...MOB... LAT...LON 32698620 32578523 32188429 31718320 31348303 30898324 30808406 30968545 31358615 31888638 32418646 32698620 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY AREA... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY...PARS OF THE SOUTHEAST...AND THE SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN AREA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue across the lower Missouri Valley late this afternoon through the evening. Supercells capable of very large hail, severe gusts, and perhaps a tornado are the primary threats. Severe storms are also ongoing across pars of the Upper Mississippi Valley, and the Southeast, and may evolve over Lower Michigan as well. ...Discussion... Only minor line adjustments are being made to the ongoing outlook at this time, with the most substantial change being to expand SLGT risk into parts of southeastern Alabama, where WW 626 remains in effect and several strong storms continue moving southeastward. Watches also remain in effect across parts of the Mid Missouri Valley, and the Upper Mississippi Valley at this time. ..Goss.. 08/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1149 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023/ ...Central Great Plains east into the lower OH Valley... Complicated forecast scenario today with a small MCS moving southeast over south-central IL. It remains unclear whether a rejuvenation or strengthening of this complex will occur as the boundary layer continues to destabilize to its southeast across the lower Wabash Valley. Isolated damaging gusts appear to be the primary risk. Farther west, mid-level convection has been noted across parts of the central Great Plains late this morning. This is occurring on the northeast periphery of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates. Going forward this afternoon, models show a consensus in showing thunderstorms developing by mid afternoon from northern KS into northwest MO and perhaps southern IA where 3000+ J/kg of MLCAPE is forecast. Strengthening west-northwesterly flow with height will elongate hodographs and favor supercells. Large to very large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats. A tornado is possible, especially where surface temperature-dewpoint spreads are near 20 deg F. Upscale growth is forecast this evening with a thunderstorm complex perhaps moving southeastward into the lower MO Valley overnight. Have reduced severe probabilities across parts of the IL in wake of the morning MCS where forcing mechanisms to initiate storms are nebulous and highly uncertain. ...Upper MS Valley... A mid-level speed max will approach the region this afternoon. Strong deep shear and weaker buoyancy are expected, but with instability still sufficient to support at least isolated strong-severe convection. MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/kg in parts of central/eastern MN and northern WI, under the strongest cooling aloft preceding the mid/upper trough. 40-50 kt effective-shear magnitudes are progged over the upper Mississippi Valley region as well. Large hail and damaging gusts are the primary risks with these storms. Some of this activity may move as far southeast as southern WI and northern IL late tonight. ...Southern Great Lakes... A disturbance moving east-southeast through the Great Lakes will probably aid in scattered thunderstorms developing this afternoon. Although heating will be tempered somewhat by a cirrus canopy this afternoon, model forecast soundings show moderate buoyancy (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) amidst a veering and strengthening wind profile with height. Have added a small Slight Risk for the possibility for organized storms to pose a risk for damaging gusts, isolated large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two mainly late this afternoon through the early evening. ...Southeast states... Ongoing cluster of thunderstorms over the Savannah River Valley will continue to move east into the coastal plain of SC later this afternoon. Very moist low levels and temperatures warming into 90s south and east of early day storms will favor strong instability developing by early to mid afternoon. Water-loaded downdrafts will potentially yield strong and locally severe microbursts capable of wind damage. Have upgraded southern GA into southern coastal SC into a categorical Slight Risk where model guidance shows higher storm coverage and greater buoyancy (reference the 12z TLH raob) resides. This activity will likely diminish during the evening. ...Northwest TX/southwest OK... Intense heating will again promote temperatures warming well into the 100s deg F by late afternoon to near or at convective temperatures. Models indicate at least a few storms developing during the late afternoon/early evening. Very steep lapse rates will favor evaporative cooling and the potential for isolated severe gusts. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z The overall pattern will be quite similar tomorrow in Texas as it is today. Given the state of fuels and current observations, greater weight was placed on the drier model solutions and the elevated area was expanded southward. ..Wendt.. 08/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... Mid-level high pressure is forecast to remain in place across the central US while also intensifying over the western US through much of Day2/Saturday. Very warm conditions are likely over the southern Plains as monsoon moisture moves north across the Great Basin and Southwest. Hot and breezy conditions will support fire-weather concerns over parts of TX and OK, with thunderstorm chances and local fire-weather potential increasing across parts of the Northwest. ...Central TX... Another day of extreme temperatures is expected beneath the ridge focused over portions of the southern Plains. Widespread surface temperatures exceeding 100 F will continue to support extremely volatile fuels across parts of central TX and southwest OK. Dry southerly winds enhanced by a lee trough and thermal low over OK will reach 10-15 mph and higher gusts into the evening. Several hours of elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected given the volatile fuels and extremely warm/breezy conditions. ...Northern Great Basin... Monsoon moisture is forecast to slowly increase across portions of the northern Great Basin through D2/Saturday. Area model soundings show PWAT values approaching 0.5-0.6 inches across parts of northern NV, into CA, and far southern OR. While synoptic lift will be weak, isolated thunderstorms may develop along the higher terrain of the Sierra and far southern Cascades. Warm and dry surface conditions suggest any storms that do form will be high-based with low wetting rainfall potential. A few dry lightning strikes are possible within mostly receptive fuels. However, with only weak synoptic forcing present, confidence in sufficient storm coverage for IsoDryT highlights is very low. ...Northwest... Weak onshore flow from eastern Pacific high pressure will help drive northerly flow over parts of southwest WA and northwest/west-central OR. Surface wind gusts of 15-25 mph are possible, especially within terrain-enhanced areas of the central Cascades and Coastal Ranges. While surface RH values are not expected to be overly dry given the onshore wind component, minimum RH values below 35%, along with the gusty winds, may support a few hours of locally elevated fire-weather potential within dry fuels. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1246 PM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTION OF THE OHIO VALLEY AND NORTHEAST...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Ohio Valley and Northeast, parts of the Plains region, and the Mid South/southern Appalachians on Saturday. ...Ohio Valley/Northeast... A belt of 40 to 60 kt mid-level westerlies is forecast to overspread the mid and upper Ohio Valley and Northeast on Saturday, as a short-wave trough initially over the Upper Great Lakes area shifts eastward across the region. Storms are forecast to develop by afternoon as the warm-sector airmass heats/destabilizes -- over parts of New York and northeastern PA near the warm front and evolving lake-breeze boundaries, and over northwestern Ohio and Indiana along the southeastward/moving cold front. Given moderately strong flow through the lower and middle troposphere, damaging winds are expected with stronger storms as convection moves rather quickly eastward. Some increase in storm coverage should continue through the afternoon and persist into the evening. Still, it appears that overall coverage may remain sufficiently sparse so as to limit overall coverage of severe-weather occurrences. WIth that said, this area may require upgrade to 30% wind/ENH risk, as multiple rounds of scattered storm clusters may affect some areas. ...Southern High Plains vicinity... Short-wave troughing is progged to rotate northeastward across New Mexico and the central/southern High Plains region, and then east-northeastward into Kansas and northern Oklahoma, around the western periphery of the mid-level ridge. As the afternoon airmass heats/destabilizes, storms are expected to develop from southeastern Colorado/northeastern New Mexico to the Texas Panhandle, which would then spread eastward across parts of Kansas and Oklahoma in conjunction with an enhanced belt of mid-level westerlies accompanying the aforementioned short-wave troughing. Given a relatively deep mixed layer anticipated during the afternoon and early evening, locally damaging wind gusts appear to be the primary severe threat, along with some hail risk. Storms may increase in coverage during the evening/overnight as a southwesterly low-level jet develops. Convection may spread eastward into Missouri late, though likely with diminishing severe risk due to diurnal stabilization of the boundary layer. ...Mid South/southern Appalachians... An MCS is forecast to be ongoing at the start of the period, moving eastward across the Mid Mississippi Valley vicinity. As the downstream airmass destabilizes through the day, storms will likely be maintained, with some reintensification possible -- aided by presence of increasing mid-level west-northwesterly flow with northward extent. Locally damaging wind gusts and hail will be possible with the strongest storms/storm clusters as convection moves across the Mid South/Tennessee Valley region, with some hints that a southeastward advance into/across the southern Appalachians may occur. As such, have expanded MRGL risk into northern parts of Alabama/Georgia, and into the western Carolinas/western Virginia, to cover any local/isolated severe risk. ...South Dakota/Nebraska area... Weak height falls associated with a short-wave trough advancing southeastward from the Canadian Rockies, in conjunction with low-level warm advection, should result in isolated afternoon storm development as ample diurnal destabilization occurs. Given sufficient shear expected over the area, a couple of the strongest storms will likely become capable of producing hail and a damaging gust or two. As a southerly low-level jet evolves through the evening, a continuation of isolated storms is expected, with some increase in coverage possible. Local severe risk may persist into the overnight hours with the strongest storms. ..Goss.. 08/11/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111738
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Aug 11 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP98):
Visible satellite images indicate that the circulation associated
with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest
of Manzanillo, Mexico, is becoming better defined. However, the
associated shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this
weekend or early next week while it moves westward or northwestward
at about 10 mph across the central portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Western East Pacific:
Another tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Conditions appear conducive
for development of this system, and a tropical depression could form
during the next few days while moving toward the west or
west-northwest at about 10 mph across the far western portion of the
basin, crossing into the Central Pacific basin on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central
America and the southern coast of Mexico in a few days.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to
form during the early or middle part of next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Drought has cut into hay and other crop production in Texas this summer. A horse owner worried about whether her hay producer in Waller just northwest of Houston would be able to grow enough hay for her. Hay fields had dried up in the Waller area, so the hay grower was importing hay from other states to fill her orders. The horse owner was paying nearly $1,000 weekly for hay for her horses and expected a weekly increase of $200 to $500 per week. KRIV FOX 26 Houston (Texas), Aug 10, 2023

Trees in the Shreveport area were stressed by several events, including severe storms earlier this summer, extreme heat and drought. Trees continued to drop limbs. KSLA TV 12 (Shreveport, La.), Aug 10, 2023

Fire restrictions were in effect for Farragut, Heyburn, McCroskey, Round Lake, Priest Lake and Winchester Lake state parks, due to extreme fire danger. It is prohibited to have a campfire, use propane-fueled fire rings or use a chainsaw during certain times. Boise State Public Radio (Idaho), Aug 10, 2023

Seasonal lifeguard operations on the Comal River ended three weeks early in New Braunfels due to the low level of the river and concerns about water clarity. San Antonio Express-News (Texas), Aug 11, 2023

WW 0623 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0623 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 623 SEVERE TSTM MN ND SD 102155Z - 110400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 623 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 455 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme west central Minnesota Southeast North Dakota Eastern South Dakota * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 455 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe storms are expected through late evening across eastern South Dakota and adjacent areas of North Dakota and west central Minnesota. Large hail of 1.5 to 2 inches in diameter and severe outflow gusts of 60-70 mph will be the main threats, though an isolated tornado or two may occur with storms near the surface warm front across extreme northeast South Dakota. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65 statute miles east and west of a line from 80 miles north northeast of Aberdeen SD to 50 miles south of Mitchell SD. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 27020. ...Thompson Read more

The City of Pearland entered stage 1 drought restrictions. Residents were asked to voluntarily curb their water use. Key measurable conditions and their duration led to the restrictions. Click2Houston (Texas), Aug 10, 2023

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0435 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z ...Central Texas... Strong ridging across the southwestern/south-central US will continue to bring very warm temperatures and dry conditions across central Texas. Occasional breezes around 10-15 mph (gusting 20 mph) will be possible D3 - Saturday and D4 - Sunday as weak lee troughing east of the Rockies continues. A cold front will sag southward late D4 - Sunday into D5 - Monday with a shift to northerly winds across north-central Texas. Temperatures will be a few degrees cooler with slightly higher afternoon relative humidity near the Red River Valley. South of the front, triple digit highs will continue. Beneath the influence of the ridge, lighter winds are forecast for D5 - Mon through D8 - Thursday. Afternoon relative humidity reductions to 15-25 percent will remain possible. Given extremely dry fuels, multiple periods of Elevated fire weather concerns will be possible. ...Pacific Northwest... Building high pressure will bring warming across the Pacific Northwest. Initial thunderstorm development will be possible as tropical moisture extends northward D3 - Saturday lingering into D6 - Tuesday (detailed below). Beyond the early week thunderstorm activity, thermal troughing may increase. This may lead to increased fire weather concerns in the extended. Confidence is low at this time in placement and strength and as a result impacts. ...Dry Thunderstorms... Potential remnants of tropical storm activity will spread northward into California and southern Oregon beginning D3 - Saturday through D6 - Tuesday. Recent model runs continue to trend slower and drier. Initial activity across central/northern California will likely be isolated, with low potential for a dry thunderstorm or two. Potential for thunderstorms will increase into D4 - Sunday and D5 - Monday as better instability spreads across northern California. A mix of wet/dry storms, mainly tied to the high terrain, with gusty and erratic winds may be possible. Confidence in coverage remains too low to include any areas at this time but this will be monitored in the coming days. ..Thornton.. 08/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 1937 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 1937 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0439 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 Areas affected...Parts of central Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102139Z - 102345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...The risk of locally severe gusts will persist through the afternoon. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...Isolated high-based thunderstorms are evolving across parts of central Texas this afternoon, where surface temperatures have climbed into the 105-110 range amid upper 50s/lower 60s dewpoints. The associated deeply mixed boundary layer (deep inverted-V thermodynamic profile) beneath steep midlevel lapse rates will support strong to locally severe gusts and possibly sporadic/marginally severe hail with any stronger updrafts that develop through the afternoon. Given weak deep-layer flow/shear and minimal large-scale ascent across the area, updraft longevity and the potential for organized upscale growth should generally be limited. Therefore, a watch is not expected at this time. ..Weinman/Thompson.. 08/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...MAF... LAT...LON 32260210 32650205 33000177 33280111 33529998 33579939 33589885 33429837 33129828 32879837 32439907 31730037 31490108 31540169 31790200 32260210 Read more

MD 1936 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
Mesoscale Discussion 1936 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0437 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 Areas affected...portions of eastern North Carolina Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 102137Z - 102300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms, including a few supercells, are possible this evening. Damaging gusts, isolated hail and a couple of tornadoes are possible with the strongest storms. A weather watch is possible, but uncertain. DISCUSSION...As of 2130 UTC, regional radar and satellite analysis showed renewed convective development ongoing across parts of southeastern and eastern North Carolina. Located ahead of a weak cold front/ wind shift, incipient storms are expected to continue to intensify through this evening. Very moist surface conditions ( dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s F) were supporting 2000-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE despite modest mid-level lapse rates. Area VADs show enhanced mid-level flow around 50 kt was aiding in sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells and or short bowing segments, with a risk for damaging wind gusts and isolated hail. While low-level winds are slightly veered, 0-1 km SRH of 100-200 m2/s2 may support a few stronger low-level mesocyclones and a risk for a couple of tornadoes this evening. Storm coverage remains the primary uncertainty in the wake of previous convection. Confidence in a more sustained severe risk is greatest farther south where the air mass has better recovered. However, conditions are being monitored for a possible weather watch over much of eastern North Carolina this evening. ..Lyons/Thompson.. 08/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...ILM... LAT...LON 33917823 34087858 34257868 34627876 34887883 35017874 35097859 35257826 35757722 36217609 36307582 35687544 35307547 35007563 34737608 34397686 34137752 34007792 33917823 Read more

MD 1934 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR EASTERN AR...NORTHERN MS
Mesoscale Discussion 1934 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0338 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2023 Areas affected...eastern AR...northern MS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 102038Z - 102245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Additional storm development is possible. An isolated severe hail/wind threat may develop. DISCUSSION...Radar/visible satellite composite shows a thunderstorm over eastern AR with an increasingly optically deep stratocumulus field over northern MS. Water-vapor imagery shows a weak mid-level perturbation moving east across eastern AR this afternoon. Surface temperatures across northern MS into far eastern AR range from the lower 80s south to the lower 90s on the southern periphery of a residual baroclinic zone. Objective analysis indicates a very unstable airmass resides over the northern MS/southeast AR vicinity (MLCAPE 3000-4000 J/kg). Effective shear due largely in part to large veering of flow with height will aid in some multicell organization. A few stronger storms may develop and pose a risk for isolated marginally severe hail/damaging gusts through early evening. The expected coverage/magnitude of the severe threat will probably preclude a severe thunderstorm watch. However, will monitor convective trends for a low possibility the severe threat is more organized than anticipated, perhaps prompting a small severe thunderstorm watch. ..Smith/Guyer.. 08/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK... LAT...LON 34599144 34759097 34348921 33968914 33668930 33568984 33999146 34359159 34599144 Read more