Hurricane Dora Forecast Discussion Number 9

2 years ago
Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 022051 TCDEP5 Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023 After the last advisory, we received a couple of late arriving microwave passes, first from GPM at 1339 UTC, and then F-17 SSMIS at 1426 UTC. Both passes suggested that the inner core structure of Dora could be rearranging some with concentric bands embedded in the central dense overcast. On geostationary satellite, a tiny eye signature keeps coming and going, more recently trying to become better defined again as the surrounding cloud top temperatures have cooled. Subjective intensity estimates of Dora were both 90 kt from TAFB and SAB at 1800 UTC. Since that time, the eye has become more distinct again, so the intensity is nudged upward to 95 kt for this advisory. A helpful Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) pass received this morning showed that Dora remains a very small hurricane, with hurricane force winds only extending out 15 n mi from the center with a tiny 5 n mi radius of maximum wind. Dora's motion is essentially unchanged from this morning, still just south of due west at 260/14 kt. A deep-layer ridge located to the north of the hurricane is forecast to move with it, resulting in a continued south of due west track through the entire forecast period. The latest track guidance remains tightly clustered near the previous forecast track, and only slight adjustments were made for this advisory, blending the TVCE and HCCA consensus aids. While Dora appears to have paused its intensification this afternoon, it might just be a short-term fluctuation, as the latest few 1-min GOES-18 infrared images over Dora show the eye trying to clear out again. While SHIPS-RII has decreased some, especially compared to yesterday, DTOPS still indicates a 64 to 67 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in intensity over the next 24 hours. So the latest NHC intensity forecast will continue to show a 115 kt peak intensity over the next day, higher than the consensus aids, but still lower than both the HAFS-A/B runs. Thereafter, sea-surface temperatures begin to markedly decrease under the hurricane as easterly vertical wind shear is forecast to increase some. The models respond to this less favorable environment by showing weakening between 36-72 hours, and the latest official forecast also shows this scenario. As mentioned previously, Dora's small size could make it susceptible to rapid intensity changes, both up or down, and the intensity forecast is of much lower confidence than the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 15.4N 115.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 15.2N 117.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 14.9N 120.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 14.5N 123.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 14.1N 127.1W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 13.7N 130.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 12.6N 139.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 12.5N 146.9W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Dora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2 years ago
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2023 485 FOPZ15 KNHC 022049 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 96(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 120W 50 X 87(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 15N 120W 64 X 69(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 60(61) 29(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 22(22) 41(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 57(68) 1(69) X(69) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 20(45) 1(46) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 4(20) 10N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 10N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 6(34) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Dora Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9

2 years ago
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2023 485 FOPZ15 KNHC 022049 PWSEP5 HURRICANE DORA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DORA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 95 KTS...110 MPH...175 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 1 96(97) 1(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) 15N 120W 50 X 87(87) 1(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) X(88) 15N 120W 64 X 69(69) 1(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) X(70) 10N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 60(61) 29(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 125W 50 X X( X) 22(22) 41(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 31(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) 10N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 57(68) 1(69) X(69) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 30(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) X(14) 10N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) X(15) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 20(45) 1(46) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 11(15) X(15) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 10N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 4(20) 10N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 10N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 6(34) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 15N 140W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 10N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 21(22) 10N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 10N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 29(31) 15N 145W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15N 145W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Dora Public Advisory Number 9

2 years ago
Issued at 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023 407 WTPZ35 KNHC 022048 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023 1100 AM HST Wed Aug 02 2023 ...TINY DORA A LITTLE STRONGER... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.4N 115.6W ABOUT 635 MI...1025 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Dora was located near latitude 15.4 North, longitude 115.6 West. Dora is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and a westward to west-southwestward motion is expected to continue over the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 110 mph (175 km/h) with higher gusts. Dora is forecast to become a major hurricane overnight, but gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Friday. Dora is a small tropical cyclone with hurricane-force winds only extending outward up to 15 miles (30 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 45 miles (75 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster

Hurricane Dora Forecast Advisory Number 9

2 years ago
Issued at 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2023 642 WTPZ25 KNHC 022047 TCMEP5 HURRICANE DORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052023 2100 UTC WED AUG 02 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.6W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT....... 40NE 20SE 30SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 60SE 45SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 115.6W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 114.9W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 15.2N 117.8W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 14.9N 120.7W MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 14.5N 123.9W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 14.1N 127.1W MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 13.7N 130.2W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 13.3N 133.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 12.6N 139.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 12.5N 146.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 115.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
NHC Webmaster

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

2 years ago
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Wed Aug 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA... Portions of central Texas into southwest Oklahoma (along/west of the I-35 corridor) were upgraded to Critical with this update. Fuels across this area are becoming increasingly dry (95th+ percentile ERCs) given the persistent 100 deg afternoon temperatures and lack of rainfall. While sustained surface winds around 15 mph would typically be borderline for Critical highlights, frequent 20-25 mph gusts and the critically dry fuels should generally compensate for this. For additional details on the Day 2 fire-weather risk, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 08/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Wed Aug 02 2023/ ...Synopsis... A surface low will continue to deepen across central Kansas on Thursday which will tighten the pressure gradient across the southern Plains. Dry and breezy conditions (15 mph sustained winds and 20 to 30 percent relative humidity) are expected from central Oklahoma into central Texas with temperatures over 100F. These meteorological conditions, paired with critically dry fuels which continue to dry further each day, support an Elevated area across portions of the southern Plains on Thursday. Monsoon moisture will continue to drift west on Thursday, with isolated thunderstorms amid 0.75 to 1 inch PWAT values across portions of eastern Oregon, northeast California and northwest Nevada. These storms will be slow moving, but LCLs will be around 12kft, which will support mostly dry thunderstorms. In addition, 90th to 95th percentile ERCs should be in place across most of this region on Thursday. Therefore, an IsoDryT delineation is warranted on Thursday to cover the potential for new lightning starts. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Aug 2, 2023 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

2 years ago
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Wed Aug 02 2023 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LARGE PART OF MISSOURI INTO FAR SOUTHERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... The greatest severe-thunderstorm potential appears to be over parts of the lower Missouri Valley region toward the lower Ohio Valley, this afternoon into evening. Severe gusts and large hail are expected, along with a marginal tornado threat. ...Discussion... The only change to the previous convective outlook was to remove low-severe probabilities in wake of the convective band over UT. ..Smith.. 08/02/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Wed Aug 02 2023/ ...MO and vicinity this afternoon through tonight... Overnight convection (associated with low-level warm advection) has been slowly weakening through the morning over MO. A couple of MCVs emanating from the overnight convection will continue to move east-southeastward through the afternoon. There is some uncertainty regarding the potential for diurnal convection along the residual front/outflow boundary across MO/northeast KS, given the presence of substantial cloud cover and the need for surface temperatures to warm well into the 90s to reduce convective inhibition. Will maintain the outlook area with no changes in this update, but will have to monitor for late afternoon storm development near the KS/MO border close to I-70. If storms form in this area, the environment will conditionally favor the potential for large hail/damaging winds, and perhaps an isolated tornado, with a mix of supercells and multicell clusters. Convection is expected to persist overnight with a renewed strengthening of a southwesterly low-level jet and warm advection. ...Central High Plains this afternoon/evening... Lingering low-level moisture across the central High Plains and surface heating in cloud breaks may again support scattered thunderstorm development to the east of the higher terrain later this afternoon into this evening. Vertical shear will be relatively weak, though a few strong outflow gusts will be possible. ...UT/northern AZ today... A well-defined MCV with associated convection is moving slowly northeastward from the lower CO River Valley toward UT. Strong surface heating/mixing will occur in advance of the ongoing convection, which will also coincide with a belt of modestly enhanced midlevel flow. The net result will be the potential for a few strong-severe outflow gusts with a broken band of convection spreading northeastward through the afternoon. Read more

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

2 years ago

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021747
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Aug 2 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Dora, located about 600 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California Peninsula.

Off the coast of Southern Mexico:
A broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located
several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec are
associated with a tropical wave. An area of low pressure is expected
to develop from this feature in the next day or two, where
environmental conditions appear favorable for further development. A
tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend as this system
moves west-northwestward or northwestward, moving parallel to but
not far off the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin
NHC Webmaster

SPC Aug 2, 2023 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

2 years ago
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1233 PM CDT Wed Aug 02 2023 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR FAR NORTHEAST COLORADO...FAR SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...AND NORTHWEST KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible over the central High Plains beginning Thursday afternoon and continuing through late Thursday evening. Severe gusts in the 60-80 mph range are the primary hazard. ...Synopsis... The mean upper flow regime on Thursday will be characterized by a ridge oriented over the Great Plains and a trough centered over the lower Great Lakes/Northeast. A convectively-aided mid-level shortwave trough is forecast to move from the OH/MS River confluence into GA through the late evening. Another convectively-aided disturbance is forecast to move from eastern UT/southwest WY east into the north-central High Plains. Embedded within the larger-scale southeast Canada mid-level trough, an impulse is forecast to move southeast through its base during the period. These three features will focus strong to severe thunderstorm potential on Thursday/Thursday night. ...Central High Plains vicinity... Mid/upper westerly flow around 30-40 kt is forecast as the mid-level perturbation ejects eastward through the afternoon/evening. East/southeasterly low-level flow will maintain 60s F surface dewpoints across the region, supporting a corridor of 1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE. Effective-shear magnitudes around 35-45 kt will support organized cells capable of large hail initially and an increasing risk for severe gusts with time. Steep 700-500 mb lapse rates will overspread the Enhanced Risk categorical area over eastern CO/western KS as 0-2 km lapse rates become adequately steep by the 22-00z timeframe. Models are is relatively good agreement in showing an organized thunderstorm cluster developing over eastern CO and becoming more expansive as it encounters increasingly rich moisture and larger CAPE. The latest CAM guidance shows a focused corridor where severe gusts are most probable and a risk for significant gusts (exceeding 75 mph) may be realized during the MCS's mature phase during the evening centered over northwest KS. This activity will continue east into central KS with a gradually reducing wind hazard into the late night. ...TN Valley vicinity... There is high confidence for a corridor of showers/thunderstorms to be ongoing Thursday morning over the lower OH Valley into TN. On the southern and western periphery of cloud debris/convective outflow, differential heating will favor additional storm development during the day across the TN Valley with more isolated storm coverage along the trailing baroclinic zone perhaps extending into the Ozarks. Appreciably strong northwesterly mid/upper flow will aid in storm organization once robust storms develop. It seems probable at least some linear configuration will evolve with the diurnal storm activity centered over northern AL. Strong heating amidst a moist/mixed boundary layer will lend potential for damaging gusts with this threat peaking during the mid-late afternoon. If uncertainty regarding mesoscale details is reduced in terms of placement of the most intense storms, additional refinement of severe probabilities may become necessary. ...Great Lakes/Northeast vicinity... Model guidance doesn't show much change to the previously issued forecast in showing a shortwave impulse embedded in the larger-scale eastern trough moving across the Great Lakes much of the period. A belt of 30-40 kt midlevel flow will overlap a seasonally moist boundary layer ahead of a south/southeast-advancing cold front. MLCAPE generally less than 1500 J/kg is forecast amid modest midlevel lapse rates. Low-level flow will be fairly light, but speed shear will support effective-shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Forecast soundings show elongated/straight hodographs, and marginally severe hail will be possible with stronger updrafts. Strong heating will result in steep low-level lapse rates, and strong outflow winds also will be possible. ..Smith.. 08/02/2023 Read more

Increase in Missouri livestock poisoned by Perilla mint

2 years ago
There were more reports of illness and death in cows and small ruminants that may have ingested perilla mint during drought, according to University of Missouri Extension specialists. Perilla mint, a toxic summer annual, is also known as rattlesnake weed, purple mint and beefsteak plant. Three Rivers Publishing, Inc. (Cuba, Mo.), Aug 2, 2023

Pests thrive amid drought in eastern Iowa

2 years ago
Thrips, tiny insects with fringed wings that thrive amid drought, consumed the first third of the strawberry crop in Iowa City in the east central part of the state. Wildlife has had less natural food available to them in the wild and have taken to searching for food and water on farms, gardens and urban areas. The Gazette (Cedar Rapids, Iowa), July 31, 2023

Iowa you-pick farms struggling amid drought

2 years ago
You-pick farms across Iowa have seen decreased yields, smaller produce and fewer customers. In Nevada in central Iowa, only about half of the strawberry crops at a berry farm survived the past two years of drought. The farmer irrigates, but could not keep up with water demand. The Iowa Department of Natural Resources restricted his well water usage from 20 acres a day to 1 acre a day. The Gazette (Cedar Rapids, Iowa), July 31, 2023

Drought reduced well output in Brighton, Iowa

2 years ago
A blueberry grower in Brighton did not have enough well water to irrigate her berries this summer after heat and drought during the 2022 summer caused water production to falter. The farmer had to cancel a day of picking appointments because there were not enough ripe berries. The Gazette (Cedar Rapids, Iowa), July 31, 2023

Stage 2 drought warning in Bell County, Texas

2 years ago
The Brazos River Authority and the Bell County Water Control & Improvement District No. 1 on Aug. 1, 2023, issued a Stage 2 Drought Warning for all communities that draw water from Lake Belton. Water customers in Killeen, Harker Heights, Belton, Copperas Cove, and others were asked to curb water use by 10%. Most Bell County towns have been conserving water since August 2022. Lake Belton was just over 578 feet, which was more than 15 feet below full pool level. KWKT FOX 44 News (Waco, Texas), Aug 1, 2023

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 578 Status Reports

2 years ago
WW 0578 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 578 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..LYONS..08/01/23 ATTN...WFO...FGF...GGW...BIS... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 578 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MNC005-027-029-051-087-089-107-111-113-119-125-167-012240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BECKER CLAY CLEARWATER GRANT MAHNOMEN MARSHALL NORMAN OTTER TAIL PENNINGTON POLK RED LAKE WILKIN MTC021-083-085-109-012240- MT . MONTANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DAWSON RICHLAND ROOSEVELT WIBAUX NDC001-003-007-011-015-017-021-025-027-029-031-033-035-037-039- 041-043-045-047-051-053-055-057-059-061-063-065-073-077-081-083- 085-087-089-091-093-097-103-105-012240- ND . NORTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more