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WW 567 SEVERE TSTM IL MO 291625Z - 300000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 567 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1125 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme west central and southwest Illinois Northern and eastern Missouri * Effective this Saturday morning and evening from 1125 AM until 700 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...A long-lived cluster of storms, with a history of damaging winds, will likely persist through the afternoon while moving across northern Missouri and toward the Saint Louis vicinity. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles either side of a line from 25 miles southwest of Chillicothe MO to 10 miles south of Scott Afb IL. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 566... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30040. ...Thompson Read more

MD 1777 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF MIDDLE AND EASTERN TENNESSEE
Mesoscale Discussion 1777 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0430 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Areas affected...Portions of Middle and eastern Tennessee Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 292130Z - 292300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated damaging wind threat will exist with storms drifting south through Middle Tennessee. DISCUSSION...Storms have developed along the surface front near the Tennessee/Kentucky border west of watch 570. These storms have formed in a region with strong instability (2500 to 3000 J/kg MLCAPE) and weak effective shear (~15 knots per OHX VWP). The weak shear will likely limit overall organization with a more outflow dominant line expected. However, given the hot, moist, and unstable downstream environment, some stronger, water-loaded downdrafts are possible with some threat for damaging wind gusts. A severe thunderstorm watch is unlikely, unless the line of storms begins to show better organization and a greater threat for damaging wind gusts. ..Bentley/Grams.. 07/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...HUN... LAT...LON 36458701 36528682 36428613 36398582 36488552 36668500 36718463 36338370 35438363 35238483 35258631 35428687 35708758 36058739 36458701 Read more

MD 1776 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO THE COLORADO FRONT RANGE
Mesoscale Discussion 1776 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0348 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Areas affected...Southeast Wyoming into the Colorado Front Range Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 292048Z - 292245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Strong/severe wind gusts will be the primary hazard with storm clusters moving off of the terrain. Large hail could occur with the strongest initial updrafts. A watch is possible later this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Modestly moist upslope flow into the terrain has allowed convection from the Front Range into the Laramie mountains to deepen over the last few hours. The moist layer is rather shallow (per DDC/AMA soundings this morning) and dewpoints have consequently mixed out into the upper 50s/low 60s F. Some capping remains on the Plains to the east as a result. However, moisture is also slightly higher than some guidance has suggested. With time and continued heating (likely upper 80s to perhaps lower 90s F), a few deeper updrafts will develop. Given the modest deep-layer shear (stronger north, weaker south) and large temperature/dewpoint spreads at the surface, outflow will be prevalent. Congealing cold pools will be the likely mechanism to drive storms out onto the Plains. The strongest storms would be capable of large hail initially, although strong/severe wind gusts are the primary hazard expected late this afternoon. A severe thunderstorm watch is possible this afternoon, but timing is uncertain as to when storms will move off of the terrain. ..Wendt/Thompson.. 07/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS... LAT...LON 38550462 40280522 41370543 41920506 41960422 41160357 40030309 39100286 38380321 38220381 38550462 Read more

MD 1775 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 568...569... FOR SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND SOUTHWARD TO THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
Mesoscale Discussion 1775 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0345 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Areas affected...Southeastern New York/southern New England southward to the Chesapeake Bay Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 568...569... Valid 292045Z - 292245Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 568, 569 continues. SUMMARY...Strong/locally severe storms will continue across parts of the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic regions over the next few hours. DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows widespread thunderstorm activity from northeastern Pennsylvania and southeastern New York into parts of southern New England, with more isolated storms extending southward to Maryland and northern Virginia. The storms are occurring within an airmass generally characterized by 1000 to 1500 J/kg mixed-layer CAPE, though instability is greater with southward extent across the Chesapeake Bay area. Within the broader area of convection, isolated stronger storms are ongoing -- the strongest of which are within a broken band from Maryland across the Capitol region. Locally damaging wind gusts remain the primary risk with these storms, and those across the remainder of WW 568 and 569 over the next few hours. ..Goss.. 07/29/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP... LWX... LAT...LON 43147132 42177061 41457154 40677385 39797500 38447600 38167755 38627818 40837644 41917662 42827455 43147132 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered to scattered severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are possible over southern New England into the Mid-Atlantic and Missouri through this evening. Large hail and strong to severe outflow gusts are also possible this evening into tonight across the central/northern High Plains. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been adjusted across MO into southern IL/IN and western KY based on a persistent MCS moving east-southeastward over MO. Several damaging wind and multiple measured severe gusts have been noted with this cluster, and this should remain the primary severe threat through the rest of the afternoon. The northern extent of the wind threat should be constrained by a weak front/instability gradient extending across southern IL. See Mesoscale Discussion 1774 for more details. Otherwise, minor adjustments have been made to the Marginal/Slight Risk areas across New England and the Mid-Atlantic into the Carolinas based on recent observational and short-term model trends. No changes have been made to the Slight Risk across the northern and central High Plains. Greater confidence exists for convection to develop over the higher terrain of northern/central CO and spread eastward into the adjacent High Plains over the next couple of hours. Both large hail and severe wind gusts will be possible with any supercells that can be sustained. ..Gleason.. 07/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023/ ...Mid-Atlantic to southern New England through this evening... Overnight convection has largely dissipated over PA, with some convection persisting across NY from Lake Ontario eastward along a surface front that is moving slowly southward. A convectively-augmented midlevel trough and belt of 40-50 kt midlevel flow will continue eastward today over PA/NY, as an associated/weak surface cyclone likewise develops eastward. 12z regional soundings revealed poor midlevel lapse rates in the warm sector, but surface heating in cloud breaks will contribute to destabilization through the afternoon as temperatures warm into the 80s across southern New England and the 90s into VA/Mid-Atlantic. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to form by early-mid afternoon along the surface wind shift/front and along differential heating zones and spread eastward through this evening. MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg, steepening low-level lapse rates and the increasing midlevel flow from west-to-east suggest that damaging winds will be the main threat with a mix of multicell clusters and some supercells this afternoon into this evening. Additional clusters/bands of storms are expected this afternoon from eastern KY/TN into western VA along a diffuse outflow/front. This area will lie along the southern fringe of the westerlies aloft, but thermodynamic profiles will favor occasional downbursts with wind damage. ...MO to western KY through this evening... An MCS and associated MCV are ongoing over northwest MO, with a history of measured severe outflow gusts the past few hours. Given the organized nature of the MCS/cold pool and surface heating/destabilization ongoing along an outflow-reinforced front from northern MO to southern IL/western KY, the MCS may persist into the afternoon. Damaging winds will continue to be the main concern with these storms. ...Central/northern High Plains through tonight... Subtle perturbations will continue to move around the northern periphery of the midlevel high centered over the Four Corners, with post-frontal/upslope low-level flow established from northeast CO to MT. The lower Plains should generally remained capped, with storm initiation focused by terrain circulations later this afternoon/evening from the CO Front Range into southeast WY. Isolated severe outflow gusts and large hail will be the main threats given moderate buoyancy, steep midlevel lapse rates and effective bulk shear in the 30-40 kt range. A cluster or two of storms could persist into tonight with isolated severe potential into NE. Farther north, the details of storm development/coverage are uncertain through tonight. Diurnal, surface-based convection is in question given the somewhat cool boundary layer and clouds into western ND. The potential for elevated storms, including a couple of supercells, is a bit higher tonight, with an attendant threat for isolated large hail. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z The previous forecast (see below) generally remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made based on the latest high-resolution guidance consensus. In particular, the Elevated highlights in southeastern OR were expanded slightly northeastward into the Blue Mountains -- where confidence in the overlap of around 15 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH has increased. While near-critical conditions are possible in the lee of the northern Sierra and southern Cascades in southern OR/northwest NV, current thinking is that sustained surface winds will generally remain below 20 mph. In addition to the fire-weather concerns addressed below, a few other areas of localized concern are possible: 1) In southern CA, gusty north-northwesterly surface winds and warm/dry conditions are expected tonight across parts of southern Santa Barbara County. While locally elevated conditions are possible here, the localized nature of the threat precludes Elevated highlights. 2) A couple dry thunderstorms capable of isolated lightning-induced ignitions are possible in western MT along the western edge of a deeper monsoonal moisture plume. However, storm coverage appears too isolated for highlights. 3) Continued warm/dry/gusty conditions and increasingly receptive fuels across west and central TX could promote locally elevated fire-weather conditions. With that said, sustained surface winds generally below 15 mph should limit the overall fire-weather threat. ..Weinman.. 07/29/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023/ ...Synopsis... Moderate mid-level flow will remain across most of the Northwest on Sunday. This will result in elevated fire weather conditions where deep mixing and/or terrain effects support some of the stronger mid-level flow transporting to the surface. This will include downslope flow/deep mixing across northeast California, northwest Nevada, southeast Oregon and far southwest Idaho, deep mixing in the Columbia Basin, and deep mixing parallel to the Snake River Plain across eastern Idaho. These stronger winds will occur among single-digit relative humidity in the lee of the Sierra and Snake River Plain and humidity around 20 percent in the Columbia River Basin. This justifies 3 Elevated areas, where the combination of wind and relative humidity will lead to some increased threat for large fires. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 29 2023 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MID MISSOURI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...AND ARIZONA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible Sunday from parts of the mid Missouri Valley into the Tennessee Valley and Southeast, as well portions of the northern/central High Plains, and Arizona. ...Synopsis... An expansive upper ridge/anticyclone will remain centered over much of the Southwest and southern Plains on Sunday. Multiple low-amplitude, mid-level perturbations are forecast to advance around the crest of this upper ridge across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains through the period. Large-scale upper troughing will be maintained over a majority of the eastern states and Canada. A belt of enhanced mid-level northwesterly winds should persist between the upper ridge/trough over portions of the Upper Midwest, OH/TN Valleys, and eastern CONUS. At the surface, weak lee troughing should exist across parts of the northern/central High Plains. Farther east, an ill-defined and convectively reinforced front should extend from parts of the Mid-Atlantic westward into the TN Valley and Mid-South. ...Northern/Central High Plains... At least isolated thunderstorms should develop by mid Sunday afternoon across the higher terrain of the northern/central Rockies. This activity is forecast to develop generally eastward into the adjacent northern/central High Plains with time. As this convection encounters greater low-level moisture and instability along/east of the weak lee trough, it should gradually strengthen. Various NAM/RAP forecast soundings across eastern MT/WY into the Dakotas and western NE depict favorable deep-layer shear that would support supercells. An isolated threat for large hail and severe wind gusts would accompany this activity as it moves eastward through Sunday evening/night, as steep mid-level lapse rates aid robust updrafts and hail production. At this point, confidence in a more concentrated corridor of severe potential remains low, as large-scale ascent associated with weak mid-level impulses rounding the upper ridge appears somewhat nebulous. ...Mid Missouri Valley into the Tennessee Valley and Southeast... Convective evolution remains uncertain across these regions on Sunday. Thunderstorms may once again be ongoing at the start of the period across parts of the Mid MO Valley and vicinity, in association with earlier/overnight convection across the central Plains. An isolated wind threat could persist with this activity Sunday morning into afternoon as it spreads southeastward across MO into the Mid-South and TN Valley with a destabilizing airmass along/south of a weak front. A convectively generated MCV related to convection ongoing in the Day 1 period across MO will probably be located somewhere across the TN Valley and southern Appalachians by Sunday morning. Renewed convective development across GA into SC should occur by Sunday afternoon along/east of this MCV and related weak mid-level perturbation. Although deep-layer shear is forecast to remain weak, a mix of pulse and loosely organized multicells appear possible. Steepening low-level lapse rates and destabilization of a moist boundary layer should promote some threat for damaging winds with the strongest cores. Other convection also appears likely to develop across the Deep South/central Gulf Coast vicinity, with some of this activity related to various sea breezes. Based on consensus of latest guidance showing at least scattered thunderstorms developing across much of this area, have expanded the Marginal Risk for damaging winds to include more of the Southeast. ...Arizona... Thunderstorms that develop over the higher terrain of the Rim and southeastern AZ should be able to move into the lower deserts late Sunday afternoon through Sunday evening, as easterly mid-level flow around 15-25 kt on the southern periphery of the upper ridge/anticyclone should aid westward propagation. Very steep low/mid-level lapse rates associated with a hot and well-mixed boundary layer may prove favorable for convective downdrafts occasionally producing severe wind gusts. ..Gleason.. 07/29/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 291727
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Jul 29 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave located south of the coast of Guatemala is producing
a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual development, and
a tropical depression will likely form early next week while the
system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to
the coasts of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Conditions remained hot and dry in Southeast Texas. Soil moisture levels were very short to adequate. There were isolated pockets of rainfall with up to 2 inches reported. More rice began to head and fields were still two to four weeks out before farmers start harvesting. Heat was taking a toll on all crops. Rice quality was a concern. Corn harvest was expected to begin soon. Cotton was aborting bolls due to heat stress. Rangeland and pasture ratings were excellent to very poor. Pastures were burning up, and ponds were beginning to dry up quickly. Hay was being cut and baled, but some producers were grazing pastures due to poor hay production progress. First hay cuttings were excellent while second cuttings were fair to poor. Cattle prices continued to hold steady and even rise in some classes. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 18, 2023

South Plains farmers continued to benefit from recent rainfall. Some producers started irrigating due to drying conditions. Rainfall amounts ranged from 0.7-1.5 inches in some areas. This moisture should allow many producers to keep their irrigation systems turned off for at least another week. Producers were scouting fields for pest, disease and weed issues. Cotton progress ranged from seven to 14 true leaves with 85% of fields at square set. Peanuts were blooming with pegging following strongly as well as pods were beginning to swell and form. Irrigation was critical at this point for peanuts. Cattle were in good condition with native grazing grasses in good condition. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 18, 2023

Topsoil conditions in East Texas were short, while subsoil conditions were adequate, and the soil was drying out very quickly. Pasture and rangeland conditions were fair to good. Extreme heat and lack of rain slowed hay production to a crawl, but many producers continued to cut and bale between sporadic rainfall. Pastures were showing signs of drought stress. Livestock were doing fair to good. Cattle market prices still looked good. Grasshopper infestations were reported in Cherokee and Smith counties. Wild pigs remained an issue for producers and landowners. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 18, 2023

Spotty rain showers delivered relief to a few areas in the Rolling Plains, but overall, the weather was extremely hot and dry. Conditions were starting to have a negative impact on quality and quantity of pastures and summer forages. Several counties were reporting large numbers of grasshoppers on the move. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 18, 2023 A few areas in the Rolling Plains of Texas caught much-needed rains and relief from high temperatures. However, most areas reported extremely hot and dry conditions. Wheat harvest and cotton planting were completed. Cotton looked poor so far in areas that did not receive rain. Rain was needed to maintain or improve livestock grazing conditions and fill water tanks. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 5, 2023

Conditions were extremely hot in West Central Texas with highs over 100 degrees daily. Soil moisture levels were extremely low, and all areas needed rain. Dry weather and heat slowed forage and crop growth and weed problems were increasing. Stock tank water levels were declining. Rangeland and pastures were showing signs of heat and moisture stress. Some hay cutting and baling occurred, and some producers were preparing for a second cutting, but pastures were starting to burn up. Good hay yields were reported this season. Sudan grass was cut and baled. Livestock looked good, and the cattle market remained high. Sheep and goat prices were a mixed bag. Cotton was planted and in fair to excellent condition. Some early planted cotton looked excellent while later-planted fields were struggling in the heat. Corn fields looked excellent though some fields were damaged by wind and replanted late. Pest pressure was high. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 18, 2023 Conditions were extremely hot and humid in West Central Texas with high temperatures over 100 degrees. Isolated locations received trace amounts of rain up to nearly 1 inch, but soil moisture levels were declining in most areas. The heat was taking a toll on crops and pastures. Grasses were turning brown. Fields that were not plowed were too hard to work. Hay harvests continued, and producers were cutting Sudan grass. Pasture and rangeland conditions were declining rapidly and showing signs of heat stress. Livestock body conditions were holding, and a few producers were putting out hay bales. Stock tanks were running low on water. Cattle prices were steady to higher, and demand for stockers was high. Producers finished planting and replanting cotton. Cotton progress ranged from squaring to emerging. Irrigated cotton and early planted dryland fields were in good condition but will need rainfall soon. Some young cotton was struggling along with corn and sorghum. Wheat harvest was complete. Pest pressure was increasing. The pecan crop outlook was poor to good depending on the variety. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 5, 2023 Scattered showers were reported in West Central Texas early in the week, but conditions were mostly dry, hot and humid. Forecasts called for temperatures at or above 100 degrees over the coming weeks. High temperatures were drying the soil profile out quickly. Producers were cutting and baling hay, but conditions were very humid. Wheat fields were being harvested for grain with reports of 30-55 bushels per acre. Some wheat fields were plowed. Cotton planting was in full swing, and some fields were emerging. Some cotton was replanted due to storm damage. Corn and sorghum were doing well following rains. High temperatures were starting to stress some sorghum fields. Pecan growers were still expecting good yields. Rangeland and pasture conditions continued to improve, but many areas were still recovering. Weed pressure was heavy in pastures. Cattle and livestock looked good. Stocker cattle prices were down some while feeder prices were up. Stock tanks needed more water but were in much better condition. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), June 21, 2023 Grazing conditions improved in West Central Texas, but some rangelands were still recovering from overgrazing during the drought. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), June 6, 2023

Continuous 100-plus degree days and wind have dried out the Far West Texas topsoil and were stressing crops, pastures and livestock more each week. The farthest western portion of the state reported trace amounts of rain up to 0.5 of an inch with some hail. Many cotton farmers were plowing under late-planted crops due to excessive heat, and older cotton was struggling. Dryland cotton was beginning to bloom with only 2-3 squares on the plant, and irrigated cotton was slowly blooming more each day. Stress was taking its toll as yield potential continued to decrease. Lygus bugs, spider mites and stink bugs were increasing in the area. Irrigation allotments in the El Paso area were up to normal. Cotton under irrigation in that area looked very good, especially Pima fields. Corn was drying down quickly, and sorghum was flowering. Melon harvest continued, and yields were starting to increase. Pecans looked very good with minimal pecan nut casebearer pressure reported. Most dryland pastures were completely brown with no green to be found. Very little grass remained in pastures except in bottomland. Brush was an ongoing battle, with ranchers struggling to keep up. Livestock were in fair condition, and producers started supplementing with hay. Alfalfa producers continued to cut and bale, and production was good. Rangelands were bare, but some small flood irrigated pastures looked very good. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 18, 2023 Temperatures in Far West Texas were in the triple digits before dropping into the upper 90s with a few isolated showers that delivered trace amounts of rain. Cooler temperatures toward the end of the week eased the stress in cotton that had been suffering since it emerged. Irrigation was not keeping up with demand, and subsoil moisture was very short. Despite cooler temperatures, hot, dry winds continued to blow, which damaged crops and prevented herbicide applications. The earliest planted cotton was blooming. Some grain sorghum fields were beginning to head out, and melons should be ready for harvest soon. The first picking will most likely be light this season. Early planted corn looked decent as it pollinated before the extreme heat. However, later-planted corn showed poor kernel set and most all fields were burning up due to lack of moisture and not enough irrigation to keep up with demand. Pastures and rangelands were drying up rapidly and there was very little grazing available. Ranchers shipped all lambs off, and some goats were left to market. Ranchers continued to supplement livestock diets. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 5, 2023 Subsoil and topsoil moisture levels in Far West Texas were declining. Extremely high temperatures impacted all crops and pastures over recent weeks. A summertime heatwave hit the Big Bend region with highs in the 90s in the higher elevations and around 100 degrees along the river. Daytime temperatures were in the 100s across the district with nighttime lows in the 70s. Skies were overcast but no rain was reported. Dryland crops were suffering. Most cotton was in the four to five true-leaf stage with the late-planted fields at cotyledon to first true-leaf stage. Corn was pollinating, and pollination suffered under high temperatures. Sorghum was close to the boot stage. Watermelons and cantaloupes were making progress. Pastures were drying out. Brush was a major issue, and producers were working on brush control. Most cotton farmers planted after beneficial rains improved growing conditions, but young plants will need rain soon. More rainfall was in the forecast. Livestock were in fair condition, and producers began shipping lambs. Pecan orchards looked good. Alfalfa fields were in good condition as well. Many producers planted Sudan grass. Weeds continued to be an issue. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), June 21, 2023 Rain in Far West Texas helped green up rangeland and pastures, but many areas were still in poor condition. Irrigated pastures looked very promising, but some desert rangeland remained very dry. Producers continued to feed livestock and wildlife. Rio Grande River water was low. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), June 6, 2023

Topsoil and subsoil conditions in South Texas continued to deteriorate due to the wind, heat and no precipitation. Cotton was suffering from extreme heat and lack of moisture. Most cotton fields were about 70% open bolls, and some later planted fields were displaying 35% open bolls. Grain sorghum harvest was almost done, and corn harvest was about 60% done. Some late-planted grain sorghum fields were yet to be harvested, and some were expected to be plowed under because they did not make a crop. The sesame crop was starting to mature. Cotton was about two weeks away from the start of harvest, and some producers were still irrigating and hoping for higher yields. Citrus and sugarcane crops were being irrigated. Hay producers were baling and irrigating meadows for future cuttings. Cattle not feeding calves were in good condition, but the cows with calves looked thinner. Cattle prices remained high. Supplemental feeding of livestock continued. Pastures were rapidly deteriorating. Considering the circumstances, livestock and wildlife still looked good. Range cubes, protein/mineral/molasses and hay were being fed to livestock. One sale reported increased volumes of all classes of beef cattle and strong demand. Cattle prices were high at two local markets. Feed prices continued to be high at local feed stores. Wildlife were being provided supplemental feed and water. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 18, 2023 Conditions were very hot. Topsoil and subsoil moisture levels continued to decline. Irrigated cotton continued to develop and started to set bolls. Peanut planting was completed, and fruit and vegetable production was slowing. Early planted peanuts were pegging. Corn fields were in the denting stage or drying down. Grain sorghum, sunflower and corn harvests were underway in some areas, and yields looked good. Dryland and irrigated cotton were showing heat stress, and plants were showing wilted leaves and shedding bolls and squares. Whiteflies were reported in cotton. Citrus and sugarcane were being irrigated. Sesame fields looked good. Hay grazer and Bermuda grass fields were being cut and baled, and producers continued to provide supplemental feed. Livestock conditions remained good, but pastures were burning up. Hay supplies were improving from recent production. Livestock and wildlife were in good condition, but body conditions were in decline due to heat stress. Quail pairs had not produced hatchlings. Rangeland conditions were declining. Beef cattle markets reported higher sale volumes as producers culled deeper. Producers were supplying water for livestock and wildlife. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 5, 2023 Supplemental feeding decreased for all livestock in South Texas, but some stock tanks were beginning to dry up. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), June 6, 2023

The weather in Central Texas was hot and dry, and crop and pasture conditions declined. Soil moisture was very short to short. Light scattered showers were reported, but drought conditions increased and tanks that were beginning to fill up started to go dry again. Temperatures remained over 100 degrees with heat indexes up to 115 degrees. Lawn watering restrictions became more widespread. Rain will be needed to grow adequate grass for additional hay cuttings. First-crop corn was harvested for silage, and second-crop corn acreage was expected to be down drastically due to lack of moisture. All pastures and crops were suffering from drought and heat. Wheat harvest wrapped up, and sorghum was cut. Cattle were in fair condition with some hay being fed. Calves were being weaned. Pasture and rangeland conditions were poor to good. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 18, 2023 Central Texas saw limited rainfall coupled with another week of 100-plus degree days with even higher heat indexes. Soil moisture levels were short. Dry and hot conditions were affecting all crops. Hot, dry wind depleted soil moisture quickly. Pastures were beginning to turn brown. Hay baling continued but slowed due to the lack of new growth. Rangeland and pasture ratings were poor to fair. The wheat harvest was winding down, and corn silage harvest was underway. Sorghum fields were colored. Cotton was mostly in bloom. Some dryland sesame fields were planted. Fiber hemp was holding on in the heat but needed rain to improve fiber yield. Fly and tick numbers started increasing. Livestock were in good condition. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 5, 2023 Dry conditions returned to Central Texas with above normal temperatures and humidity. There were a few scattered storms throughout the district. Soil moisture was short to adequate. Pastures continued to improve with warm weather and late spring rains. Good quality grazing was available, and the first hay cutting produced good yields. Pasture and rangeland conditions were beginning to deteriorate under dry, hot conditions. Corn reached firm dough to dent stage with the 100-plus degree daily temperatures. Later-planted corn was getting short of moisture for final filling, which may trim off the excellent yields previously expected. Overall, corn was expected to produce above the long-term average yields. The wheat harvest was complete with varying yields. Cotton began squaring. Fleahopper populations built up in ditches and rangelands and have now begun to move into cotton fields. Sorghum progressed nicely and avoided many insect problems so far. Livestock were in good condition, and prices remained steady. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), June 21, 2023

Conditions in the Coastal Bend were extremely hot and dry, and rain was badly needed. Drought conditions and extreme heat were devastating for cotton fields that needed to fill bolls. Fruit shedding continued and yield potential continued to suffer. Sorghum harvest should be completed soon, and some later-planted fields were likely to be reported as failed. Most corn harvesting wrapped up with yields at or above average. Rice was nearly all headed out. Pasture conditions were rapidly deteriorating and drying out. Hay fields needed rain as hay baling continued. Available forages were getting short in some pastures. Livestock were doing well. Cattle prices were at historic highs, and cattle were in good condition. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 18, 2023 Topsoil moisture continued to decline with hot, dry conditions. Corn was in the dry-down stage. The dry-down stage was sped up by the last three weeks of 90-plus degree days and dry weather. Sorghum harvest was underway, and some corn was being harvested. Rice was 75% headed out. Pecan trees began shedding nuts due to dry conditions. Most first cuttings of hay were complete. Rangeland and pasture conditions continued to decline. Improved pastures were drying up fast. Livestock markets were holding strong, and cattle were doing well, but rain was needed for grass growth. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 5, 2023 Hot, dry, and humid conditions in the Coastal Bend were taking a toll on pastures and crops. Crops were still doing well with the vast spring rainfall. Corn was doing well but was expected to decline in the 100-degree heat predicted for the next week. Grain sorghum was coloring. Corn and grain harvest should begin within the next few weeks. Furrow irrigation for cotton continued where available. Early planted rice was beginning to head. Rice water demand was expected to increase under extreme heat. Hay harvest continued with huge yields reported. Cattle remained in good condition, and market prices were steady. AgriLife (Texas A&M) (College Station, Texas), June 21, 2023

WW 0560 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0560 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 560 SEVERE TSTM IA NE WI 282200Z - 290500Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 560 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 500 PM CDT Fri Jul 28 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest to northeast Iowa Eastern Nebraska Southwest Wisconsin * Effective this Friday afternoon from 500 PM until Midnight CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging winds likely with isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Initial storms developing along a front from the Mid-Missouri Valley to north-central Iowa will likely grow upscale into multiple southeast-moving clusters this evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles northwest of Lincoln NE to 45 miles north northeast of Dubuque IA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 557...WW 558...WW 559... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector 30030. ...Grams Read more

WW 0557 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 557 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE BKW TO 35 SW DUJ TO 30 NNE FKL TO 25 N YNG TO 40 W ERI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1752 ..SUPINIE..07/28/23 ATTN...WFO...CLE...PBZ...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 557 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS PAC039-049-282240- PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CRAWFORD ERIE WVC075-083-093-282240- WV . WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE POCAHONTAS RANDOLPH TUCKER LEZ149-282240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE CONNEAUT OH TO RIPLEY NY Read more