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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1237 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2023 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered severe thunderstorms are forecast across southern New England southward into portions of the Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday. Damaging gusts and a couple tornadoes will be the primary hazards. ...Synopsis... A shortwave trough currently in the upper Midwest will continue eastward into Thursday. This feature is forecast to reach New England by early afternoon. Strong mid-level flow will persist across the northern periphery of the upper-level ridge in the northern Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. A surface low will move through the Northeast along with an associated warm front and a weak front/surface trough trailing into the Blue Ridge/Piedmont regions. Another surface boundary in the northern Plains into northern Minnesota/Wisconsin/Upper Peninsula Michigan will sag southward. ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic... Some ongoing activity is expected during the morning within the Northeast, likely near the Canadian border. Some lingering cloud cover can be expected perhaps into the early afternoon. Cloud cover will generally decrease with southward extent into the Mid-Atlantic. Heating through broken cloud cover in New England should be sufficient to promote at least 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE given the moist airmass expected. Deep-layer shear with the shortwave trough will not be overly strong (30-40 kts), but should allow for some storm organization with a mix of discrete cells and multicells. Low-level wind fields will be moderately strong and promote a risk for damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. Near the warm front, low-level shear will also favor some potential for low-level rotation and a threat for a couple tornadoes. Should greater surface heating occur, greater risk for damaging winds could be realized. Farther south into the Mid-Atlantic, weaker shear will be present. Stronger surface heating will still promote buoyancy perhaps in excess of 2000 J/kg MLCAPE. Damaging wind gusts and isolated large hail would be the main threats with activity moving off of the Blue Ridge. ...Central High Plains into Upper Midwest... Deep-layer shear will be maximized near the surface boundary and weaken with southward extent across the broad region. Scattered storms appear most likely within the higher terrain of Wyoming into eastern Colorado. These storms would primarily pose a threat of strong/severe wind gusts. Strong heating within the Plains could allow for isolated strong/severe storms to develop. Forcing will be weak and capping will keep storm development uncertain. Guidance does show a weak surface low developing in Minnesota into northwest Wisconsin. Surface convergence may be great enough to allow a cluster of storms to develop. Shear in this region would be favorable for supercells initially. Large hail and strong/severe wind gusts would be possible. Weak low-level shear and deep-layer shear parallel to the boundary, however, suggests upscale growth would occur relatively quickly and limit the duration of the large hail threat. ..Wendt.. 07/26/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261735
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Wed Jul 26 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southern Mexico
over the weekend to early next week. Thereafter, some gradual
development of this system is possible while it moves generally
west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coasts of southern and
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Canyon Lake has dropped to 894.70 feet as of July 26, just two feet above the lowest water level ever recorded. The lake fell to 892.70 feet on Sept. 9, 2009, per the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Just one of nine boat ramps listed on the Comal County Engineer’s Office website was reported to be open. MySanAntonio (Texas), July 26, 2023

Spokane city officials urged residents to curb their lawn watering as the level of the Spokane River dropped and moderate drought took hold. For the first time, Level 2 drought response measures were put in place as the flow of the Spokane River fell below 1,000 cubic feet per second. Spokane Spokesman-Review (Wash.), July 25, 2023

MD 1707 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 546... FOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
Mesoscale Discussion 1707 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0516 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Areas affected...Southern New England Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546... Valid 252216Z - 260015Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 546 continues. SUMMARY...A few strong storms will spread across southern New England this evening. Gusty winds remain the primary threat. DISCUSSION...Large-scale forcing ahead of progressive short-wave trough is advancing across the northern Middle Atlantic into southern New England early this evening. A small pocket of modest instability has yet to be overturned over eastern CT/RI into southeast MA. Over the next few hours, strong convection is expected to propagate east-southeast across southern New England with an attendant threat for gusty winds. Even so, convection should gradually weaken as it progresses toward coastal MA due to weaker buoyancy. ..Darrow.. 07/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX... LAT...LON 41987258 42007127 41267136 41157283 41987258 Read more

MD 1706 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO FAR WESTERN MINNESOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1706 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0457 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Areas affected...portions of eastern North Dakota into far western Minnesota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252157Z - 252330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat is increasing across portions of North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota. Severe hail and wind are the main threats. Convective coverage trends are being monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. DISCUSSION...MRMS mosaic radar imagery depicts an increase in convective intensity across ND as a subtle mid-level trough overspreads the region, with at least one supercell taking shape in Cavalier County, ND. Though appreciable convective inhibition remains in place, strong surface heating of a moist low-level airmass (characterized by near 70 F surface dewpoints) supports 3000-5000 J/kg MLCAPE (per 21Z mesoanalysis). At the moment, it is unclear if the upper support across the northern Plains will compensate for the substantial CINH to support a relatively widespread severe threat. On the other hand, given the instability, any storm that can mature and become sustained should support a severe wind and hail threat. As such, convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 07/25/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS... LAT...LON 45989853 48399840 48999806 49119739 48909647 48519616 47829605 47139604 46549596 46269604 46129634 45949714 45989853 Read more

WW 0546 Status Updates
140- STATUS REPORT ON WW 546 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W BWI TO 10 ENE TTN TO 30 NNE EWR TO 25 N POU. ..KERR..07/25/23 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...LWX...PHI...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 546 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-252140- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM DEC001-003-005-252140- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-252140- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA Read more

WW 546 SEVERE TSTM CT DC DE MD NJ NY PA VA CW 251610Z - 260000Z
0- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 546 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1210 PM EDT Tue Jul 25 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut District Of Columbia Delaware Eastern Maryland New Jersey Southeast New York Eastern Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 1210 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Thunderstorms will increase from northern Virginia into eastern Pennsylvania this afternoon, then track eastward across the watch area through the day. Damaging winds are possible in the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles east and west of a line from 10 miles west northwest of Windsor Locks CT to 45 miles east southeast of Washington DC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27030. ...Hart Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0246 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST...AND OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind/hail-producing thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Northern Plains and the Northeast into this evening. Isolated severe gusts are also possible over portions of the Interior West. ...20z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook with the 20z Update. Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue to shift east/northeast across WW 546 the next few hours before moving offshore the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast coast. Additional severe thunderstorms are expected to develop over the northern Plains in the next few hours. These storms will shift east/southeast through the evening into early tonight, producing hail and damaging gusts. ..Leitman.. 07/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023/ ...Mid Atlantic into southern New England... A remnant MCV is currently over eastern PA. This feature is embedded within a larger-scale shortwave trough and associated 40 knot mid-level jet moving into the northeast states. Forcing ahead of these features is leading to scattered thunderstorm development. Strong heating across the region, coupled with dewpoints in the 70s will lead to moderate CAPE values over 2000 J/kg. Sufficient winds aloft and steep low-level lapse rates will promote locally damaging wind gusts in the stronger cells through early evening. Storms will eventually build southward into eastern VA/MD as well. ...Northern Plains... Water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over MT/WY. This feature will emerge into the Plains this afternoon, with large scale ascent overspreading the Dakotas. As this ascent reaches the western edge of deeper/richer moisture over central ND/SD, thunderstorms are expected to rapidly develop. Initial storms will likely be supercells with a risk of large hail and damaging winds. Storms should congeal upscale through the evening as they track east-southeastward into southwest MN/western IA with a continued risk of damaging winds. Other more isolated severe storms may develop southward into parts of NE and northeast CO, with a localized risk of damaging winds and hail. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 PM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NV...PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHERN OR...AND NORTHEAST CA... ...Eastern OR/WA and the ID Panhandle... A shortwave mid-level trough is forecast to move over portions of the Northern Great Basin into the Northwest late D2/Wed into early D3/Thur morning. Subtle forcing for ascent, and mid-level moisture will aid in isolated, mostly nocturnal, thunderstorm chances. Hi-res guidance shows some potential for lightning to interact with drier fuel beds across far eastern WA/OR into portions of the ID Panhandle. Should this occur, a few lightning ignitions are possible as fuels have dried over the preceding days. However, overall confidence in storm coverage is too low for IsoDryT highlights. Otherwise critical fire-weather conditions are possible over the northern great Basin. The prior forecast remains valid with no changes. See previous discussion. ..Lyons.. 07/25/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0142 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023/ ...Synopsis... A series of mid-level troughs will crest the southern Rockies stationary ridge and traverse the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies tomorrow/Wednesday. Strong forcing accompanying the passing troughs will support widespread 15+ mph sustained westerly surface winds amid 15-20 percent RH by afternoon peak heating in and to the south of the Harney Basin and also northern Montana, necessitating Elevated highlights. Surface winds may be stronger along the California/Nevada/Oregon border, prompting the addition of Critical highlights this outlook. Similar to previous days, monsoonal moisture associated with the stationary upper ridge may promote a few high-based thunderstorms with erratic wind gusts by afternoon, with fire starts possible wherever lightning can strike in dry fuel beds. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 251737
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Jul 25 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Bucci

Brazos County officials approved a 90-day burn ban, due to the lack of rain and the heightened fire danger. Many other counties in the region have also adopted burn bans, including Milam, Robertson, Leon, Houston, Lee, Burleson, Madison, Walker, San Jacinto, and Austin counties. KBTX (Bryan, Texas), July 25, 2023

Seeds in northeast Indiana did not germinate immediately or was delayed by lack of soil moisture, leading to wide variation in crop growth, which may affect crop yield. WANE 15 (Fort Wayne, Ind.), July 24, 2023

Crop conditions were deteriorating in Iowa as soil moisture declined and temperatures rose. Only 63% of the corn and 58% of the soybeans were in good to excellent condition, much lower than at the same time last year. WHO-TV 13 (Des Moines, Iowa), July 24, 2023

After a dry winter and spring, some Nebraska cornfields germinated and eventually tasseled at different times and heights in the same field. Dry weather has kept disease pressure low, but recent rainfall could change that. Farm Progress (St. Charles, ill.), July 24, 2023

On July 1, the U.S. cattle herd consisted of 95.9 million head of cattle and calves, per the latest cattle inventory report from the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Drought in 2022 continued to affect the size of the cattle herd. The total was 3% lower than the 98.6 million head on July 1, 2022, but higher than the 89.3 million head recorded as of Jan. 1 this year. Texas Farm Bureau (Waco), July 24, 2023

The week was extremely hot in the Panhandle with field conditions drying out fast, and temperatures reaching at or above triple digits. Irrigation systems were running where water was available. Producers were busy trying finish up planting and replanting summer crops. Wheat harvest was underway with average to slightly above average yields in irrigated fields. All crops needed rain. Corn was coming along but slightly behind on maturity levels compared to average years. Cotton was struggling in some areas and wilting under the extremely hot conditions, but other areas reported the crop was in good condition. Most pastures and rangeland were in good condition after recent rains helped grasses. Livestock were also in good condition with supplemental feeding happening on a very small scale. Producers finished bailing hay and wheat that replenished hay supplies. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 5, 2023 Supplemental feeding continued to take place in the Texas Panhandle on a small scale after rain improved conditions. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), June 21, 2023

Hot and dry conditions persisted in Southwest Texas. Pastures began showing drought stress while hay baling ceased. Forage density on rangeland was low to very low with brush- and drought-tolerant forbs dominating rangelands. Pecan orchards began producing nuts in the dough stage, and thinning was expected to begin soon if not underway already. Corn and sorghum were nearing harvest, and some producers had already begun corn harvests. Cattle markets were steady while sheep and goats were low. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 18, 2023 A heat wave continued to put high stress on agricultural production in Southwest Texas. Hot, humid conditions persisted, but rain ranging from 0.5-6.5 inches was reported over the weekend. Several locations reported 1-2 inches of rainfall. The rainfall will benefit later-planted corn and grain sorghum crops, cotton and pastures. Grain sorghum was coloring. Pecans were progressing. Grasshopper numbers remained high due to dry weather conditions; however, no significant damage was reported. Cotton was squaring but needed rain before plants begin to drop squares. Hay was being cut and baled, but rangeland and pasture conditions were declining in areas. Livestock markets were consistently high. Cooler temperatures were in the forecast. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), July 5, 2023 Little measurable precipitation was reported in Southwest Texas. Conditions were hot and humid, with temperatures exceeding 100 degrees and heat indexes beyond 110 degrees. The high temperatures were expected to deplete soil moisture levels from recent rains. The lack of subsoil moisture was becoming evident as crops that just received good rainfall were beginning to show moisture and heat stress. Pasture and rangeland conditions were declining and showing some signs of heat stress. Most corn, sorghum and cotton looked good. Hay was being made. Livestock were in fair to good condition, and markets were holding high. Wildlife was in good shape, but fawn survival numbers were a concern due to the hot temperatures. AgriLife Today (College Station, Texas), June 21, 2023

Residents of Katy were urged to conserve water as the extreme heat caused a sharp increase in water demand. The city was in stage 2 of its drought contingency plan. KHOU Online (Houston, Texas), July 24, 2023