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WW 0498 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 498 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 WNW IER TO 40 NNE IER TO 40 SW MLU TO 25 SW MLU TO 20 NW MLU TO 20 NNE ELD. ..DEAN..07/16/23 ATTN...WFO...SHV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 498 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC139-162240- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE UNION LAC021-043-059-069-073-111-127-162240- LA . LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE CALDWELL GRANT LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA UNION WINN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0499 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 499 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSW UNO TO 15 S ALN TO 20 WSW SPI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1582 ..DEAN..07/16/23 ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 499 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ILC005-027-051-117-119-121-133-135-157-163-189-162240- IL . ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BOND CLINTON FAYETTE MACOUPIN MADISON MARION MONROE MONTGOMERY RANDOLPH ST. CLAIR WASHINGTON MOC093-179-186-187-203-162240- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE IRON REYNOLDS STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS SHANNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 499 SEVERE TSTM IL MO 161920Z - 170200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 499 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 220 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Illinois Central and eastern Missouri * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will move east-southeast a cross the watch area this afternoon and evening with a risk for damaging winds, and isolated large hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles north northeast of Alton IL to 40 miles south of Fort Leonard Wood MO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 498... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 28025. ...Bunting Read more

WW 0500 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 500 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..07/16/23 ATTN...WFO...ICT...TOP...DDC...GLD...GID... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 500 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC009-015-017-027-029-041-047-051-053-055-057-061-063-065-069- 079-083-095-097-101-105-113-115-123-127-135-141-143-145-151-155- 159-161-163-165-167-169-171-173-179-185-195-162240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARTON BUTLER CHASE CLAY CLOUD DICKINSON EDWARDS ELLIS ELLSWORTH FINNEY FORD GEARY GOVE GRAHAM GRAY HARVEY HODGEMAN KINGMAN KIOWA LANE LINCOLN MCPHERSON MARION MITCHELL MORRIS NESS OSBORNE OTTAWA PAWNEE PRATT RENO RICE RILEY ROOKS RUSH RUSSELL SALINE SCOTT SEDGWICK SHERIDAN STAFFORD TREGO THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES Read more

WW 500 SEVERE TSTM KS 162025Z - 170300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 500 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 325 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western and central Kansas * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 325 PM until 1000 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will move southeast across the watch area the remainder of this afternoon and evening with a risk for large hail and damaging wind gusts. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles north and south of a line from 70 miles northwest of Dodge City KS to 40 miles south southeast of Manhattan KS. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 498...WW 499... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Bunting Read more

MD 1582 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 499... FOR FAR SOUTHEASTERN MO AND SOUTHERN IL
Mesoscale Discussion 1582 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Areas affected...Far southeastern MO and southern IL Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499... Valid 162100Z - 162230Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499 continues. SUMMARY...The severe-wind risk continues across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499 this afternoon. Convective trends are being monitored for a possible downstream watch. DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KLSX depicts a broken line of thunderstorms tracking eastward across parts of southeastern MO into southwestern IL this afternoon -- where several wind-damage reports and measured severe gusts have occurred. In the short-term, severe winds and sporadic large hail will remain possible with this activity -- aided by a unidirectional westerly wind profile characterized by 30 kt of 0-6 km bulk shear (per KLSX VWP data) oriented perpendicular to the larger outflow boundary. As these storms continue east out of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 499, it is unclear if storms will maintain intensity (especially along the southern parts of the broken line) where deep-layer shear is weaker. However, steep low-level lapse rates and favorable deep-layer shear downstream of the northern part of the line may continue to support organized clusters capable of wind damage. Convective trends are being monitored for a downstream watch. ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 37729068 38069060 39188979 39518950 39638910 39648851 39538797 39228770 38788776 38428795 37938827 37518874 37358910 37278950 37239018 37349051 37549068 37729068 Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Jul 2023 20:39:07 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Jul 2023 21:29:29 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Jul 16 2023 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 162037 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Calvin Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032023 1100 AM HST Sun Jul 16 2023 The satellite presentation of Calvin has not changed much since the last advisory. Satellite images show a partially exposed low-level circulation with a small area of moderate to deep convection near the center. Satellite intensity estimates continue to fall, and a blend of the latest Dvorak final-T and current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB support lowering the intensity to 55 kt. Continued weakening is expected as Calvin moves over 24C SSTs and into a drier, more stable environment during the next couple of days. The cyclone could cease producing organized convection during this time. Although environmental and oceanic conditions remain marginal on its approach to Hawaii, there is still support in GFS, ECMWF, and HAFS model-simulated satellite imagery for some new bursts of convection as Calvin moves closer to the islands. So, the NHC forecast keeps Calvin a tropical cyclone through 72 h, although post-tropical status could occur sooner than forecast. Regardless, the cyclone should still be producing some tropical-storm-force winds in its northern semicircle upon its closest approach to Hawaii, especially given the storm's fast forward motion. There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning. A mid-level ridge over the eastern Pacific is expected to steer Calvin generally westward into the central Pacific basin late tonight or early Monday and toward the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday. The NHC forecast shows the center of Calvin passing near or over the Big Island of Hawaii early Wednesday, then continuing westward and becoming post-tropical on Thursday before dissipating. The guidance envelope has trended slightly southward this cycle, but little change was required to the NHC forecast as it still lies near the latest HFIP corrected consensus approach (HCCA) aid. While the exact storm track near Hawaii is still uncertain, there is potential for portions of the state to experience some heavy rainfall, dangerous surf and rip current conditions, and minor wind impacts from Calvin. A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for portions of the main Hawaiian Islands later today. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Calvin is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the next couple of days or so, bringing the potential for heavy rainfall and dangerous surf and rip current conditions. A Tropical Storm Watch could be issued for portions of the main Hawaiian Islands later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 16.1N 136.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 17/0600Z 16.5N 138.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 17/1800Z 17.1N 142.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0600Z 17.5N 145.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 18/1800Z 18.1N 149.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 19/0600Z 18.7N 153.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 19/1800Z 19.2N 157.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 20/1800Z 20.0N 163.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 16 2023 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 162037 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032023 2100 UTC SUN JUL 16 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 136.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 140W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BUOY 51004 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) 20N 154W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HILO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) BRADSHAW AAF 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 18N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) SOUTH POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 1(13) X(13) 21N 156W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KAILUA-KONA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) KAHULUI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 21N 158W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) HANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LANAI CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) KAUNAKAKAI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BUOY 51002 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) HONOLULU 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) JOINT BASE PHH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 20N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) 21N 160W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) BUOY 51003 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER REINHART

Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Jul 16 2023 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 162037 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Calvin Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032023 1100 AM HST Sun Jul 16 2023 ...CALVIN MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.1N 136.3W ABOUT 1260 MI...2025 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in Hawaii should monitor the progress of Calvin. A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for portions of the main Hawaiian Islands later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Calvin was located near latitude 16.1 North, longitude 136.3 West. Calvin is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue during the next several days. On the forecast track, the center of Calvin will move into the central Pacific basin late tonight or early Monday and approach the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and early Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is forecast during the next few days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Calvin can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP3 and WMO header WTPZ43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/miatcdep3.shtml RAINFALL: Storm total rainfall amounts of 4-6 inches are possible along windward areas of the Big Island of Hawaii on Wednesday and Thursday, with lower amounts (1-3 inches) expected elsewhere in the state. This rainfall could lead to localized flash flooding and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Calvin are expected to begin reaching the Hawaiian Islands during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Reinhart

...CALVIN MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN... As of 11:00 AM HST Sun Jul 16 the center of Calvin was located near 16.1, -136.3 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 16 2023 950 WTPZ23 KNHC 162036 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032023 2100 UTC SUN JUL 16 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 136.3W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 90SE 90SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 136.3W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 135.5W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.5N 138.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.1N 142.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 17.5N 145.9W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 18.1N 149.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 18.7N 153.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 19.2N 157.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 20.0N 163.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 136.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

MD 1580 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF WESTERN SD INTO FAR NORTHWESTERN NE
Mesoscale Discussion 1580 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Areas affected...Parts of western SD into far northwestern NE Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162031Z - 162300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and locally severe gusts are possible with any storms that can develop across the area this afternoon. DISCUSSION...Latest visible satellite imagery indicates deepening boundary-layer cumulus generally focused over the Black Hills and a NW/SE-oriented pre-frontal confluence zone over southwestern SD this afternoon. Modified RAP forecast soundings over this area depict an uncapped air mass, characterized by steep midlevel lapse rates atop moist northeasterly low-level flow. Continued heating over the higher terrain and along the confluence zone may support isolated thunderstorm development during the next couple of hours, though storm coverage is uncertain given weak large-scale ascent over the area. If storms can develop, a long/straight hodograph (50-60 kt of effective shear) would support splitting supercells capable of producing large hail and locally severe gusts. Additionally, a back-door cold front will approach the area during the next few hours, which may also support an uptick in thunderstorms though the evening. While a watch is not currently expected given uncertainty on storm development/coverage, trends will be monitored. ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/16/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...CYS... LAT...LON 42720350 42980373 43250389 43550399 43860401 44170402 44440401 44740397 44930377 45000343 44820296 44420227 43870163 43400133 43010140 42590189 42420233 42390281 42550324 42720350 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM KANSAS INTO MISSOURI...AND OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A brief/weak tornado will be possible across portions of the Northeast this afternoon, while scattered large hail and severe wind will be possible across the Central Plains and portions of the Midwest. ...Northeast... Low-level shear continues to decrease over New England, though instability remains. As such have reduced tornado probabilities, although heating over NY/VT may yield a few strong cells in the weaker shear area. The strong low-level shear has shifted primarily northeast of where the more favorable instability resides. ...Sabine Valley into the mid MS Valley... A corridor of strong instability exists ahead of ongoing strong to severe storms now near the AR/LA border. These may pose a damaging wind threat as they likely persist today, traveling southeastward across northern LA. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1578. Farther north, scattered strong cells persist over east-central MO, where strong outflow winds have been observed. The air mass remains unstable eastward into IL, and both strong gusts and marginal hail may occur with MLCAPE to 2000 J/kg and around 30 kt effective shear. ...Central/Northern Plains... Strong heating continues over the region, with increasing CU noted on satellite near the boundary in KS. Convection is also growing over the Black Hills area, through storm coverage should remain isolated there. Favorable 50 kt effective shear will conditionally favor hail cells. The greatest threat area continues to be over KS where heating continues and the air mass is most unstable south of the front. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1579. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1137 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023/ ...Northeast/Southern New England and Mid-Atlantic States... Widespread precipitation, with embedded stronger convective elements, continues across eastern portions of the mid-Atlantic region northeast into New England at 16z. Widespread cloud cover/limited heating has tempered destabilization of a very moist air mass (PW in excess of 2 inches), however weak MLCAPE (500 to locally near 1000 J/kg) is expected through this afternoon, which will remain sufficient for a few stronger storms to persist. Low-level shear will also remain supportive of mostly transient low-level rotation and some continued tornado risk through mid afternoon. ...Central Plains/Midwest... A persistent low-level jet will continue to provide a moist/unstable inflow into the MCS over eastern KS/western MO, and diurnal heating downstream over central MO will result in moderate/strong MLCAPE as this MCS continues moving east-southeast over the next few hours. Mid-level flow of 30-40 kts will provide sufficient shear to maintain some degree of organization with at least some risk for damaging winds this afternoon. The Marginal Risk has been expanded northwest towards the Black Hills Region of SD, where isolated thunderstorms may develop this afternoon/evening. Northwesterly mid-level flow of 40-50 kts will support supercell potential with a risk for severe hail and strong wind gusts. ...North Texas/Southern Oklahoma to ArkLaTex/Middle Gulf Coast... A persistent MCS continues along the Red River late this morning, with isolated severe winds reported over the past hour. Daytime heating of an exceptionally moist air mass will contribute to strong/locally extreme instability by afternoon downstream towards the Arklatex, and despite marginal shear this convective system will likely maintain its structure while moving southeast this afternoon. At least isolated damaging winds will be possible with this MCS through the afternoon, and also with additional storms/clusters that may develop towards the middle Gulf Coast within an uncapped air mass. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0154 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z A belt of enhanced low-level flow will develop across portions of northeast Utah, northwest Colorado, and southern Wyoming. Here winds around 20-25 mph (with stronger gusts) will develop during the afternoon, in the presence of relative humidity around 10 percent. The result will be critical meteorological conditions. However, NFDRSv4 derived ERC percentiles are still only in the 60-80 percent range. Thus have opted to go with an Elevated area instead of Critical. Elsewhere, only minor changes were made to the periphery of the Elevated area in the Pacific Northwest to bring into better alignment with the latest guidance. ..Marsh.. 07/16/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0140 AM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023/ ...Synopsis... Strong cyclonic flow will remain present over the Northwest on Monday. A cold front will accompany the trough passage in the Northwest and will progress into the Great Basin. ...Columbia Basin... Surface winds behind the cold front will likely reach 15-20 mph. For areas near the terrain, 20-25 mph could also occur. Temperatures will be slightly cooler and some mid/high-level cloud cover will be possible as well. Due to those factors, RH will likely only be marginally dry. Most areas will reach around 20% during the afternoon. Despite winds being stronger on a broader scale, only elevated fire weather conditions are expected due marginal RH. ...Great Basin... The shortwave trough moving through northern California late Sunday will continue into the northern Basin on Monday. This may promote isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon. These storms will be fast moving and produce limited precipitation. With fuels only marginally dry at best from northern Nevada into southern Idaho, the threat of lightning ignitions should remain low. Ahead of the cold front, southwesterly winds will increase across southern and central Nevada. Current guidance shows 10-20% RH will occur during the afternoon. The strongest winds, however, will occur over central Nevada where fuels are not critically dry. Locally elevated conditions will remain possible in southern Nevada where fuels are cured. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0497 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ENE BOS TO 20 N BOS TO 35 NNW PWM. WW 497 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 161900Z. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1576 ..GLEASON..07/16/23 ATTN...WFO...OKX...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 497 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS MEC005-031-161900- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CUMBERLAND YORK MAC009-161900- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ESSEX NHC015-017-161900- NH . NEW HAMPSHIRE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sun Jul 16 2023 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE BLACK HILLS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms producing damaging hail and wind gusts are most likely from the Black Hills area southeastward into northern Nebraska late Monday. Other strong wind gusts or marginal hail will be possible from parts of Kentucky and Tennessee northeastward into western Pennsylvania. ...Synopsis... A large upper trough will remain situated from Ontario into the Great Lakes, providing cool air aloft and a cyclonic flow regime from Mid and Upper MS Valley into the Northeast. To the west, a shortwave trough will affect parts of the Pacific Northwest and into MT, with strong westerly flow aloft. East of there, a northwest flow regime will exist over the northern and central Plains, with embedded waves developing from eastern WY/MT into SD/NE in association with areas of storms late. At the surface, dry air will exist behind a cold front which will extend from northern KS/MO into northern IL/IN, with a plume of mid to upper 60s dewpoints ahead of it. Westerly flow around 850 mb will maintain an unstable air mass from KY/TN into OH and western PA, beneath moderate mid to upper level flow. ...Northern Plains... Ahead of the upper wave and near a deepening surface trough, storms are likely to develop over southeast MT and northern WY during the afternoon, moving southeast across SD through late evening and continuing into east-central/northeast NE overnight. Initial activity is likely to produce large hail with long hodographs and steep lapse rates aloft, although some of the activity may be elevated. Even so, substantial, penetrating downdrafts may yield wind damage as well, especially as storm mode transitions to MCS overnight into NE. ...KY/TN into western PA... Areas of storms may be ongoing Monday morning over parts of western KY and TN, and these would move into a destabilizing air mass during the day. As such, a few damaging gusts may occur assuming stronger instability develops ahead this potential activity. Forecast soundings show modest deep-layer shear around 30 kt, but steep lapse rates and sufficient mean wind to produce mobile cold pools and locally damaging winds. In addition, sporadic marginal hail will be possible with the more cellular activity given cool air aloft. Farther east, additional activity is possible from WV into eastern OH and western PA where heating will steep low-level lapse rates, and colder air aloft will exist near the midlevel temperature gradient. Marginal hail and locally strong gusts will be possible. ..Jewell.. 07/16/2023 Read more

175
ABPZ20 KNHC 161726
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Jul 16 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Storm Calvin, located more than 1300 miles east
of Hilo, Hawaii.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form well to the south or
southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next
several days. Development of this system appears unlikely as it
moves generally west-northwestward over the central portion of the
eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jul 15 22:15:24 UTC 2023.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Jul 15 22:15:24 UTC 2023.