Aggregator

...CALVIN STRENGTHENS A LITTLE MORE... As of 11:00 AM HST Fri Jul 14 the center of Calvin was located near 13.8, -124.6 with movement WNW at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 955 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 125 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI JUL 14 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 142045 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032023 2100 UTC FRI JUL 14 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 124.6W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT....... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT.......100NE 90SE 90SW 100NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 120SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 124.6W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 123.9W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.3N 126.7W MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT. 64 KT... 30NE 25SE 20SW 25NW. 50 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 90SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.1N 129.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 80SE 80SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.7N 132.4W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.3N 135.5W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.9N 138.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 17.4N 141.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 18.3N 149.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 19.0N 156.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 124.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART

MD 1550 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN INTO NORTHWESTERN WI
Mesoscale Discussion 1550 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0310 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Areas affected...Parts of southern/central MN into northwestern WI Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 142010Z - 142245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of marginally severe hail and locally damaging gusts are possible across parts of southern/central MN into northwestern WI into early evening. A watch is not expected. DISCUSSION...A few loosely organized thunderstorms are tracking eastward across parts of southwestern/south-central MN this afternoon -- generally focused along a NNE/SSW-oriented surface trough. Ahead of this activity, differential heating along the northern edge of widespread cloud coverage should provide a favorable corridor across parts of southern/central MN into northwestern WI for the maintenance of this activity into the early evening time frame. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates across the area and an elongated/straight hodograph (around 30 kt of effective shear) could support marginal supercell structures and loosely organized clusters capable of producing marginally severe hail and locally damaging winds. Overall, the severe threat is expected to remain too marginal/isolated for a watch. ..Weinman/Bunting.. 07/14/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 44169582 44299604 44549613 44929620 45289606 45479573 45599498 45689410 45839342 46059294 46399241 46389176 46209112 45809081 45279079 44839101 44579145 44409189 44259255 44209399 44159535 44169582 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Valid 142000Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL TO EASTERN KANSAS...WESTERN MISSOURI...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds, including some over 75 mph and large hail are forecast today over portions of the central and southern Plains. Isolated damaging gusts or marginal hail will also be possible over parts of the Mid Atlantic and southern New England, the Great Lakes, and the Mid-Mississippi Valley. ...KS/MO/OK... A substantial MCS is currently moving southeastward across central KS with additional activity extending east along I-70 into northeast KS. The air mass ahead of these storms remains strongly unstable with a warming air mass and 70s F dewpoints. Earlier, GBD measured a wind gust of 52 kt near the tail end of the MCS, with 63 kt measured at TOP and various KS mesonet locations over 60 mph. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1547. ...MN into WI... Heating near a surface trough with steep low-level lapse rates and sufficient instability may favor isolated hail or gusty winds, and a Marginal Risk has been added to this region, generally north of the existing cirrus canopy where heating is strongest. ..Jewell.. 07/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023/ ...Central and southern Plains... An ongoing cluster of severe storms was located over southwest/south-central NE at 16z, with a history of large hail and, more recently, severe gusts. This small complex is within a zone of warm advection in the 850 to 700-mb layer, and will likely continue moving southeastward along an instability gradient this afternoon and evening. Aided by steep lapse rates in the midlevels and strong-locally extreme MLCAPE across central KS/central and eastern OK this afternoon, an expected evolution into a fast-moving MCS with significant severe wind gust potential is anticipated. The Enhanced Risk was expanded west over KS based on morning CAM guidance, and also adjusted slightly southward over OK. The Slight and Marginal Risk areas were also expanded south as well-organized and fast-moving MCSs often persist longer than reflected in some operational guidance. Given the CAPE-shear parameter space, supercell potential will also exist with this MCS and an attendant risk for large hail. Farther west, isolated supercell development appears possible across southeast WY/northeast CO late today, along the southern fringe of stronger WNW mid-level flow. Large hail will be possible. ...MO/IA/IL/WI... A cold front will move into parts of southern IA, northern MO, northwest IL, and southern WI by afternoon, and scattered thunderstorm development is expected in the vicinity of the front. Moderately strong westerly mid-level winds and ample CAPE will promote a few organized clusters capable of hail and damaging wind gusts for a few hours through this evening. ...East Coast from NC to New England... Diurnal heating of a moist air mass (dew points averaging upper 60s-mid 70s) will lead to moderate CAPE across a rather large area this afternoon. A weak shortwave trough will approach the mid-Atlantic states this afternoon, contributing to the development of widely scattered thunderstorms from NC across the Mid-Atlantic into southern New England. Winds aloft will be relatively weak (25-30 knots), but the potential will exist for a few slow-moving multicell clusters capable of gusty/damaging winds this afternoon and early evening. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0243 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains on track. See the discussion below for more details. ..Karstens.. 07/14/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1218 AM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023/ ...Synopsis... The western upper-level ridge will undergo some amplification on Saturday. Late Saturday into Sunday morning, a shortwave trough is expected to being moving into the Northwest. At the surface, the high pressure system in the intermountain region will generally remain in place. Fire weather concerns are again expected to be minimal for most locations. Some enhancement to the northwesterly mid-level winds is possible in the eastern Great Basin and Four Corners. Locally elevated conditions will be possible during the afternoon. The strengthening winds aloft over the Northwest will not be favorably timed for fire weather concerns. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0489 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 489 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NE RSL TO 45 W CNK TO 15 WNW CNK. ..GLEASON..07/14/23 ATTN...WFO...GLD...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 489 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS KSC123-141940- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE MITCHELL THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1223 PM CDT Fri Jul 14 2023 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS...AND OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered storms, a few producing damaging gusts, are possible from the Lower Great Lakes across parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys toward the southern Appalachians. Isolated hail is also possible late over the southern High Plains. ...Synopsis... A deep upper low will remain over the Manitoba/Ontario area with a broad area of cyclonic flow aloft over the northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast. The southern periphery of the stronger flow aloft will sweep east across the OH and TN Valleys during the day, with a wave ejecting northeastward toward the Mid Atlantic overnight. Winds around 850 mb will increase out of the south late in the day and overnight ahead of the upper wave, enhancing warm/moist advection and lift. At the surface, a cold front will stretch roughly from OH into TN by late afternoon, with dewpoints near 70 F. A warm front will also lift northward overnight across PA and NY, aided by the stronger flow off the surface. A surface low will develop over OH, and will deepen a bit overnight into western NY. ...Lower Great Lakes southward into northern AL/GA/SC... A morning MCS may affects parts of southern MO, western TN and KY Saturday morning, and may provide a further focus for redevelopment during the day and during the evening across TN, northern AL and GA. Predictability is low for this scenario but ample moisture and instability will be present to support a conditional wind threat in this corridor, possibly extending into the western Carolinas overnight. During the day, areas of rain and storms will exist in association with the upper trough and cold front, moving across IN, OH, KY, with stronger activity possible during the diurnal cycle over OH and eastern KY. Locally strong gusts or marginal hail will be possible but neither CAPE nor shear will be very strong. During the evening, low-level shear will increase as the low deepens and winds just off the surface increase to over 30 kt. This will increase SRH, but at a time when low-level instability will be minimized. Still, rising dewpoints may yield SBCAPE sufficient for a few ongoing cells to acquire rotation, with either enhanced wind gust potential or a brief/weak tornado. ...Southeast CO...eastern NM...western TX Panhandle... Low-level moisture will surge northwestward during the evening and overnight from the TX Panhandle into NM and southeast CO, where a steep lapse rate environment will remain. A few elevated cells capable of large hail are forecast mainly after 03Z, moving southeastward out of CO/NM and into the TX Panhandle through Sunday morning. ..Jewell.. 07/14/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 141721
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 14 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Calvin, located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form well south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it
moves westward to west-northwestward over the central portion of the
eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

The Albert Lea to Glenville region of southern Minnesota has received less than four inches of rain in the last two months, although 25 inches of rain were needed for a good harvest. The corn was struggling. KIMT 3 (Rochester, Minn.), July 10, 2023

Drought has caused lawn care companies in Madison to lose revenue since the grass was not growing enough to require frequent mowing. Crews turned to bush trimming and weeding to keep busy. Wisconsin State Journal (Madison), July 12, 2023

Drought has limited the height of Illinois corn. Prior to rainfall on June 28 and 29, conditions this year since planting were drier than in 1988 or 2012. Kankakee Daily Journal (Ill.), July 12, 2023

In October 2022, a Viking ship left for a two-week cruise to St. Paul, Minnesota, but canceled the trip and docked at Greenville, Mississippi. Passengers were bussed to Memphis and were flown home. The cruise that would have been the return from St. Paul downriver was also canceled. Mississippi Today (Jackson), July 12, 2023

Musk and bull thistles have taken hold in many southwest Missouri pastures weakened by drought. Missouri law requires landowners to control all Canada, musk and Scotch thistles and prevent them from going to seed. Missouri Farmer Today (Hiawatha, Iowa), July 13, 2023

Low water levels and high water temperatures caused the deaths of nearly 21,000 shovelnose sturgeon along a 60-mile stretch of the Des Moines River in Iowa from Ottumwa to Farmington in the past week. To boost the water level, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers began releasing more water upstream from Red Rock Lake and will continue to release extra water through the next several days. WGEM-TV Quincy (Ill.), July 14, 2023

The city of Hutto entered stage two of its water conservation plan as it was in moderate drought. KVUE News Online (Austin, Texas), July 13, 2023

WW 0487 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0487 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 487 TORNADO CO KS 132200Z - 140200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Tornado Watch Number 487 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 400 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Tornado Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado Southwest Kansas * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 400 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... A couple tornadoes possible Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 3 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...Associated with a very moist environment, have upgraded to a Tornado Watch across the region to reflect an increased potential for a few tornadoes late this afternoon into evening across southeast Colorado and nearby southwest Kansas. The tornado watch area is approximately along and 50 statute miles north and south of a line from 45 miles west southwest of La Junta CO to 60 miles east southeast of Lamar CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 481...WW 482...WW 483...WW 484...WW 485...WW 486... AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Guyer Read more

Drought began earlier in the growing season than usual, threatening crops. Rainfall has been scarce since mid-May, and more rain is needed to produce decent corn. Litchfield Independent Review (Minn.), July 12, 2023

MD 1528 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF WESTERN/CENTRAL MN
Mesoscale Discussion 1528 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0448 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Areas affected...Parts of western/central MN Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 132148Z - 132315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Some threat for hail and damaging wind will spread southeastward into this evening. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms has recently developed across eastern SD, with several reports of severe hail in the last hour. Moderate buoyancy and unidirectional wind profiles with around 30-40 kt of effective shear are supporting occasional supercell structures, and some hail threat may continue as storms approach southwest MN, where a similar environment is in place. Farther north, strong to potentially severe storms are moving from eastern ND into western MN, and may pose a localized hail threat in the short term. With time, some clustering and modest upscale growth of convection is possible. While relatively dry conditions are noted across parts of central MN, steep low/midlevel lapse rates could support some damaging wind threat with any upscale growing cluster by early evening. Watch issuance is possible for some portion of western/central MN, depending on short-term observational trends. ..Dean/Guyer.. 07/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR... LAT...LON 48079606 47959591 47159453 45899432 43629421 43599576 43659640 44869643 45729641 46879654 47759658 48079606 Read more