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WW 0483 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 483 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KARSTENS..07/13/23 ATTN...WFO...PUB...GLD...BOU...DDC... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 483 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS COC009-011-017-025-039-041-055-061-063-071-073-089-099-101-121- 125-132240- CO . COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BACA BENT CHEYENNE CROWLEY ELBERT EL PASO HUERFANO KIOWA KIT CARSON LAS ANIMAS LINCOLN OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO WASHINGTON YUMA KSC023-071-075-129-181-187-199-132240- KS . KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CHEYENNE GREELEY HAMILTON MORTON SHERMAN STANTON WALLACE NEC057-132240- Read more

WW 483 SEVERE TSTM CO KS NE 131825Z - 140200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 483 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM MDT Thu Jul 13 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern Colorado Far western Kansas Extreme southwest Nebraska * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1225 PM until 800 PM MDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2.5 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Isolated severe thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon, with storms becoming more numerous and merging into clusters towards evening. Very large hail, up to the size of baseballs, will be possible along with damaging winds. A tornado or two may also occur. As storms merge into southeast-moving clusters, damaging winds will become an increasing concern. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles east northeast of Akron CO to 35 miles west southwest of Springfield CO. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 481...WW 482... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Bunting Read more

WW 0482 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 482 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..KARSTENS..07/13/23 ATTN...WFO...ILN...LMK...JKL...RLX...PBZ...RNK... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 482 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS INC029-115-137-155-132240- IN . INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DEARBORN OHIO RIPLEY SWITZERLAND KYC005-011-015-017-019-021-023-025-037-041-043-049-063-065-067- 069-071-073-077-079-081-089-097-109-113-115-117-119-127-129-135- 137-151-153-159-161-165-167-173-175-181-187-189-191-195-197-201- 203-205-209-237-239-132240- KY . KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDERSON BATH BOONE BOURBON BOYD BOYLE BRACKEN BREATHITT CAMPBELL CARROLL CARTER CLARK ELLIOTT ESTILL FAYETTE FLEMING FLOYD FRANKLIN GALLATIN GARRARD GRANT GREENUP HARRISON JACKSON JESSAMINE JOHNSON KENTON Read more

WW 482 SEVERE TSTM IN KY OH PA WV 131755Z - 140100Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 482 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 155 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Extreme southeast Indiana eastern Kentucky Southern Ohio Extreme southwest Pennsylvania Western and central West Virginia * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 155 PM until 900 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered severe thunderstorms will continue developing this afternoon with a risk for damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. Thunderstorm coverage will increase by late afternoon and this evening with damaging winds becoming the primary severe weather hazard. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles north and south of a line from 30 miles west of Lexington KY to 75 miles east southeast of Parkersburg WV. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 481... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 27025. ...Bunting Read more

WW 0481 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 ESE ELM TO 15 NNW BGM TO 35 NE BGM TO 35 E UCA TO 30 SSE SLK TO 20 E SLK TO 35 NNE SLK TO 45 ENE MSS. ..KARSTENS..07/13/23 ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...BTV... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 481 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC005-132240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE LITCHFIELD MAC003-132240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKSHIRE NYC001-007-017-019-021-025-027-031-035-039-041-057-077-083-091- 093-095-105-107-111-113-115-132240- NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ALBANY BROOME CHENANGO CLINTON COLUMBIA DELAWARE Read more

WW 481 SEVERE TSTM CT MA NY VT LO 131640Z - 140000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 481 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Western Connecticut Extreme northwest Massachusetts Central and eastern New York Vermont Lake Ontario * Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 1240 PM until 800 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms will increase in coverage along an eastward-moving cold front this afternoon and early evening with a risk for damaging gusts to 70 mph as the primary severe hazard. Large hail will also be possible, and a tornado or two may occur with the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles east and west of a line from 40 miles north northwest of Burlington VT to 25 miles east of Binghamton NY. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 22035. ...Bunting Read more

Wildlife in and around San Antonio is suffering and in need of food, water and respite from the heat. Vegetation was turning brown and drying up. Some people were putting water out for the animals as they roamed into residential areas. WOAI NBC 4 San Antonio (Texas), July 12, 2023

A farmer near Albert Lea reported that his onions were smaller than usual. Similarly, other produce was small, and he had a narrower variety of items to sell at the farmers market. KAAL-TV ABC 6 (Rochester, Minn.), July 12, 2023

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Jul 2023 20:33:36 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Jul 2023 21:22:57 GMT

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 13 2023 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 132031 TCDEP3 Hurricane Calvin Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032023 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 13 2023 High-resolution 1-minute visible satellite imagery shows the inner core of Calvin becoming better defined with deep convective banding wrapping around the center. In the past hour or so, satellite trends show what may be the beginning stages of eye trying to develop, and this would be in agreement with what was reflected in microwaves passes from earlier this morning. The upper-level outflow wind pattern has continued to become better established around the cyclone as well. Subjective satellite Dvorak estimates were T4.0/65 kt and T4.5/77 kt from SAB and TAFB, respectively. Given the improved satellite structure and a blend of the subjective intensity estimates, the initial intensity is set to 70 kt for this advisory. The cyclone continues to be over warm sea surface temperatures and within a low vertical wind shear environment, with gradual strengthening forecast for the next day or so. The forecast peak intensity remains 85 kt in 24-36 hours. However, there was some model guidance this cycle, particularly HCCA, that showed the potential for the system to become a little bit stronger than that. After 36 hours, sea surface temperatures along the track of Calvin will gradually begin to cool, and this will likely induce gradual weakening through the remainder of the forecast period. The latest NHC intensity forecast lies near the upper-end of the guidance in the short term, then shows gradual weakening, and is near the consensus aids by the end of the period. Calvin is moving westward at 275/12 kt. A strong mid-level ridge to the north of Calvin will continue to move the system westward to west-northwestward. The track guidance continues to be in fairly good agreement, with the consensus aids and HCCA coming into better agreement with the forward speed compared to previous model cycles. The NHC track forecast is not too different from the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/2100Z 12.8N 118.7W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 14/0600Z 13.2N 120.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 14/1800Z 13.7N 123.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 15/0600Z 14.3N 126.5W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 15/1800Z 14.9N 129.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 16/0600Z 15.6N 132.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 16/1800Z 16.2N 135.2W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 17/1800Z 17.3N 141.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 18/1800Z 18.2N 149.1W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Kelly/Berg

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 13 2023 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 132031 PWSEP3 HURRICANE CALVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032023 2100 UTC THU JUL 13 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CALVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 120W 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 10N 125W 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 15N 125W 34 1 22(23) 57(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) X(80) 15N 125W 50 X 2( 2) 32(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) 15N 125W 64 X X( X) 13(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 15N 130W 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 68(73) 17(90) X(90) X(90) 15N 130W 50 X X( X) X( X) 33(33) 24(57) X(57) X(57) 15N 130W 64 X X( X) X( X) 14(14) 14(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 15N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) 3(50) X(50) 15N 135W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) 2(16) X(16) 15N 135W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 135W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 15N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) X(18) 15N 140W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) 20N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) 15N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 20N 145W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 15N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 150W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 20N 151W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BERG

Issued at 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 13 2023 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 132031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Hurricane Calvin Advisory Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP032023 1100 AM HST Thu Jul 13 2023 ...HURRICANE CALVIN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.8N 118.7W ABOUT 905 MI...1455 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Calvin was located near latitude 12.8 North, longitude 118.7 West. Calvin is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and a west to west-northwestward motion is expected to continue during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by the weekend, as Calvin begins to move over cooler water. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles (130 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM HST. $$ Forecaster Kelly/Berg

...HURRICANE CALVIN CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ... As of 11:00 AM HST Thu Jul 13 the center of Calvin was located near 12.8, -118.7 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 80 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC THU JUL 13 2023 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 132030 TCMEP3 HURRICANE CALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032023 2100 UTC THU JUL 13 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 118.7W AT 13/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 5NW. 50 KT....... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 70NE 50SE 40SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 118.7W AT 13/2100Z AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 118.0W FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 13.2N 120.8W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 13.7N 123.7W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.3N 126.5W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 10SE 10SW 25NW. 50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...110NE 80SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 14.9N 129.4W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 30SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.6N 132.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 10SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 16.2N 135.2W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 17.3N 141.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 18.2N 149.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.8N 118.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY/BERG

MD 1526 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND...WESTERN MN...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1526 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Areas affected...Portions of eastern ND...western MN...and far northeastern SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131956Z - 132230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated hail/wind threat may continue for a few more hours this afternoon. But, watch issuance will probably not be needed. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have gradually increased in coverage over eastern ND this afternoon along/near a weak surface trough. Persistent west-northwesterly flow aloft strengthens with height at mid/upper levels per recent VWPs from KMVX. Deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt appears sufficient for supercells, but ongoing clustering/updraft interactions lend some uncertainty as to whether thunderstorms will be able to remain at least semi-discrete. Regardless, moderate instability and elongated hodographs aloft should encourage some threat for large hail with any supercell that can persist. Otherwise, isolated severe/damaging winds may occur with any convective downdraft as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward across eastern ND and western MN over the next few hours. At this point, it appears that the overall severe threat will remain isolated enough to preclude watch issuance. ..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 47229932 47729914 48179753 47349554 46439516 45529740 46149888 46749924 47229932 Read more

MD 1526 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND...WESTERN MN...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1526 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Areas affected...Portions of eastern ND...western MN...and far northeastern SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131956Z - 132230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated hail/wind threat may continue for a few more hours this afternoon. But, watch issuance will probably not be needed. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have gradually increased in coverage over eastern ND this afternoon along/near a weak surface trough. Persistent west-northwesterly flow aloft strengthens with height at mid/upper levels per recent VWPs from KMVX. Deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt appears sufficient for supercells, but ongoing clustering/updraft interactions lend some uncertainty as to whether thunderstorms will be able to remain at least semi-discrete. Regardless, moderate instability and elongated hodographs aloft should encourage some threat for large hail with any supercell that can persist. Otherwise, isolated severe/damaging winds may occur with any convective downdraft as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward across eastern ND and western MN over the next few hours. At this point, it appears that the overall severe threat will remain isolated enough to preclude watch issuance. ..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 47229932 47729914 48179753 47349554 46439516 45529740 46149888 46749924 47229932 Read more

MD 1526 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ND...WESTERN MN...AND FAR NORTHEASTERN SD
Mesoscale Discussion 1526 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Areas affected...Portions of eastern ND...western MN...and far northeastern SD Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 131956Z - 132230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated hail/wind threat may continue for a few more hours this afternoon. But, watch issuance will probably not be needed. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms have gradually increased in coverage over eastern ND this afternoon along/near a weak surface trough. Persistent west-northwesterly flow aloft strengthens with height at mid/upper levels per recent VWPs from KMVX. Deep-layer shear of 30-40 kt appears sufficient for supercells, but ongoing clustering/updraft interactions lend some uncertainty as to whether thunderstorms will be able to remain at least semi-discrete. Regardless, moderate instability and elongated hodographs aloft should encourage some threat for large hail with any supercell that can persist. Otherwise, isolated severe/damaging winds may occur with any convective downdraft as thunderstorms spread east-southeastward across eastern ND and western MN over the next few hours. At this point, it appears that the overall severe threat will remain isolated enough to preclude watch issuance. ..Gleason/Bunting.. 07/13/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS... LAT...LON 47229932 47729914 48179753 47349554 46439516 45529740 46149888 46749924 47229932 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN VERMONT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today across eastern New York and western Vermont, with scattered severe thunderstorms possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and portions of the southern/central Plains. Damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible in these areas. Isolated very large hail may occur across parts of the central Plains. ...Northeast... A line of storms continues to push rapidly east across NY, with strong wind gusts measured recently. Instability remains favorable ahead of the line, and heating continues as well. While the primary threat is for damaging winds, effective SRH over 150 m2/s2 and deep-layer shear over 30 kt will also favor a few supercells with hail or brief/weak tornado risk. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1523. Farther south, a relative minimum in thunderstorm coverage is expected over southern PA into MD, and the Slight Risk has been modified in these areas as the severe risk should remain isolated. The primary risk farther south is expected to remain over the OH Valley, WV and western VA. ...Plains... Extreme moisture and instability is noted into eastern CO where dewpoints are in the 68-72 F range. The backed/easterly low-level flow beneath moderate high level flow is resulting in long hodographs with around 50 kt effective shear. The result should be very large hail, as well as developing damaging wind threat as storms increase in coverage and blend outflows through the OK/TX Panhandles and into western OK. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1519. ..Jewell.. 07/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023/ ...NY into New England... Water vapor loop shows a strong mid-level shortwave trough moving across southern Ontario, with a surface cold extending extending from Lake Erie into central/eastern OH. A warm front extends east from a surface low over southeast Ontario Province to the coast near Portland, ME. The cold front will move steadily east this afternoon into NY where thunderstorm development is underway, with an increase in coverage likely over the next few hours. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s and substantial heating will yield pockets of MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, along with moderately steep low and mid-level lapse rates. Shear profiles are also rather strong, conducive for organized/supercell structures. Thunderstorms are expected to intensify over eastern NY in the Hudson Valley vicinity before spreading into western New England. A mixture of discrete supercell storms and bowing structures is expected, capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two. Storms should weaken during the evening while moving into a more stable environment with time. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1517 for additional details on short-term thinking in this area. ...KY/WV/OH... As the cold front sags southward into the upper OH Valley by mid-afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. Sufficient westerly flow aloft and MLCAPE of 1500 to locally 2000 J/kg will promote supercells and organized clusters capable of damaging winds and severe hail. ...High Plains from SD to TX... A broad upper-level ridge is present today over the southwest states, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies extending across CO/KS. A surface dryline will become established by late afternoon extending from the Black Hills vicinity across eastern CO. Forcing will be subtle, however minimal CINH and ample moisture/instability will result in widely scattered intense storms along the dryline, spreading southeastward through the evening. Supercells capable of very large hail appear possible. Storms over western SD/NE, and also over southwest KS and adjacent TX/OK panhandles may persist well into the night and spread eastward across those states. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN VERMONT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today across eastern New York and western Vermont, with scattered severe thunderstorms possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and portions of the southern/central Plains. Damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible in these areas. Isolated very large hail may occur across parts of the central Plains. ...Northeast... A line of storms continues to push rapidly east across NY, with strong wind gusts measured recently. Instability remains favorable ahead of the line, and heating continues as well. While the primary threat is for damaging winds, effective SRH over 150 m2/s2 and deep-layer shear over 30 kt will also favor a few supercells with hail or brief/weak tornado risk. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1523. Farther south, a relative minimum in thunderstorm coverage is expected over southern PA into MD, and the Slight Risk has been modified in these areas as the severe risk should remain isolated. The primary risk farther south is expected to remain over the OH Valley, WV and western VA. ...Plains... Extreme moisture and instability is noted into eastern CO where dewpoints are in the 68-72 F range. The backed/easterly low-level flow beneath moderate high level flow is resulting in long hodographs with around 50 kt effective shear. The result should be very large hail, as well as developing damaging wind threat as storms increase in coverage and blend outflows through the OK/TX Panhandles and into western OK. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1519. ..Jewell.. 07/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023/ ...NY into New England... Water vapor loop shows a strong mid-level shortwave trough moving across southern Ontario, with a surface cold extending extending from Lake Erie into central/eastern OH. A warm front extends east from a surface low over southeast Ontario Province to the coast near Portland, ME. The cold front will move steadily east this afternoon into NY where thunderstorm development is underway, with an increase in coverage likely over the next few hours. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s and substantial heating will yield pockets of MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, along with moderately steep low and mid-level lapse rates. Shear profiles are also rather strong, conducive for organized/supercell structures. Thunderstorms are expected to intensify over eastern NY in the Hudson Valley vicinity before spreading into western New England. A mixture of discrete supercell storms and bowing structures is expected, capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two. Storms should weaken during the evening while moving into a more stable environment with time. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1517 for additional details on short-term thinking in this area. ...KY/WV/OH... As the cold front sags southward into the upper OH Valley by mid-afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. Sufficient westerly flow aloft and MLCAPE of 1500 to locally 2000 J/kg will promote supercells and organized clusters capable of damaging winds and severe hail. ...High Plains from SD to TX... A broad upper-level ridge is present today over the southwest states, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies extending across CO/KS. A surface dryline will become established by late afternoon extending from the Black Hills vicinity across eastern CO. Forcing will be subtle, however minimal CINH and ample moisture/instability will result in widely scattered intense storms along the dryline, spreading southeastward through the evening. Supercells capable of very large hail appear possible. Storms over western SD/NE, and also over southwest KS and adjacent TX/OK panhandles may persist well into the night and spread eastward across those states. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023 Valid 132000Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN VERMONT... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS...PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...AND NORTHEAST... ...SUMMARY... Numerous severe thunderstorms are likely today across eastern New York and western Vermont, with scattered severe thunderstorms possible across parts of the Ohio Valley and portions of the southern/central Plains. Damaging winds, large hail, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible in these areas. Isolated very large hail may occur across parts of the central Plains. ...Northeast... A line of storms continues to push rapidly east across NY, with strong wind gusts measured recently. Instability remains favorable ahead of the line, and heating continues as well. While the primary threat is for damaging winds, effective SRH over 150 m2/s2 and deep-layer shear over 30 kt will also favor a few supercells with hail or brief/weak tornado risk. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1523. Farther south, a relative minimum in thunderstorm coverage is expected over southern PA into MD, and the Slight Risk has been modified in these areas as the severe risk should remain isolated. The primary risk farther south is expected to remain over the OH Valley, WV and western VA. ...Plains... Extreme moisture and instability is noted into eastern CO where dewpoints are in the 68-72 F range. The backed/easterly low-level flow beneath moderate high level flow is resulting in long hodographs with around 50 kt effective shear. The result should be very large hail, as well as developing damaging wind threat as storms increase in coverage and blend outflows through the OK/TX Panhandles and into western OK. For more information see mesoscale discussion 1519. ..Jewell.. 07/13/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023/ ...NY into New England... Water vapor loop shows a strong mid-level shortwave trough moving across southern Ontario, with a surface cold extending extending from Lake Erie into central/eastern OH. A warm front extends east from a surface low over southeast Ontario Province to the coast near Portland, ME. The cold front will move steadily east this afternoon into NY where thunderstorm development is underway, with an increase in coverage likely over the next few hours. Surface dewpoints in the mid 60s and substantial heating will yield pockets of MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg, along with moderately steep low and mid-level lapse rates. Shear profiles are also rather strong, conducive for organized/supercell structures. Thunderstorms are expected to intensify over eastern NY in the Hudson Valley vicinity before spreading into western New England. A mixture of discrete supercell storms and bowing structures is expected, capable of large hail and damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two. Storms should weaken during the evening while moving into a more stable environment with time. See recently issued Mesoscale Discussion 1517 for additional details on short-term thinking in this area. ...KY/WV/OH... As the cold front sags southward into the upper OH Valley by mid-afternoon, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop. Sufficient westerly flow aloft and MLCAPE of 1500 to locally 2000 J/kg will promote supercells and organized clusters capable of damaging winds and severe hail. ...High Plains from SD to TX... A broad upper-level ridge is present today over the southwest states, with the southern fringe of stronger westerlies extending across CO/KS. A surface dryline will become established by late afternoon extending from the Black Hills vicinity across eastern CO. Forcing will be subtle, however minimal CINH and ample moisture/instability will result in widely scattered intense storms along the dryline, spreading southeastward through the evening. Supercells capable of very large hail appear possible. Storms over western SD/NE, and also over southwest KS and adjacent TX/OK panhandles may persist well into the night and spread eastward across those states. Read more