Aggregator

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 092033 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM JOVA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 126.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 092033 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Jova Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023 ...JOVA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO ARE OCCURING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.9N 126.1W ABOUT 1030 MI...1655 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Jova was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 126.1 West. Jova is moving toward the northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A northwestward motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected for the next day or so. Jova is forecast to slow down further and turn toward the west-southwest by late Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is likely, and Jova is expected to become a remnant low by late Sunday or early Monday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jova are affecting the western coast of Mexico and are occuring along portions of the coast of California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly

...JOVA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS ALONG THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO ARE OCCURING... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sat Sep 9 the center of Jova was located near 22.9, -126.1 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Issued at 2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 092032 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC SAT SEP 09 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 126.1W AT 09/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..210NE 180SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 126.1W AT 09/2100Z AT 09/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 125.8W FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 23.6N 127.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 24.3N 127.9W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 24.6N 128.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.4N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.0N 130.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.1N 133.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 126.1W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Sat Sep 09 2023 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN THROUGH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...PARTS OF EASTERN WYOMING AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE GREAT PLAINS...EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorm development remains possible across parts of the northern Mid Atlantic states into southern New England late this afternoon, and across parts of the Great Plains to the east of the Rockies late this afternoon through this evening. ...20Z Update... Categorical and severe probabilistic outlook lines have been adjusted, mostly to account for the continuing gradual progression of synoptic and sub-synoptic scale features and their influence on trends concerning instability. East of the Mississippi Valley, the boundary-layer remains seasonably moist and characterized by moderately large CAPE, along and southeast of a weak surface frontal zone across parts of the Allegheny Plateau into southern Maine. Southwesterly deep-layer mean flow and shear in the vicinity of the front is rather modest (on the order of 20-25 kt or less), but this might still be enough to contribute to some convective organization and marginally higher probabilities for severe wind and hail than areas elsewhere across the east. To the lee of the Rockies, steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates are contributing to moderately large mixed-layer CAPE, but mostly in a rather narrow corridor east of lee surface troughing, from the northwestern Texas Panhandle into the North Platte NE vicinity. For more details on the severe weather potential, please refer to the prior outlook discussion appended below, and the latest SPC mesoscale discussions. ..Kerr.. 09/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sat Sep 09 2023/ ...Nebraska/Kansas and northern High Plains... No changes warranted, with at least widely scattered severe storms including supercells expected across the region later today. Deep-layer wind profiles will be conducive to discrete supercells from late afternoon into this evening, focused along a surface front from central Nebraska to northwest Kansas and within a post-frontal weak low-level upslope regime to the northwest across the northern High Plains. A ribbon of around 1 inch PW values depicted in GOES imagery and sampled by the 12Z LBF sounding should be maintained from western Kansas into central Nebraska. This combined with surface temperatures warming through the 80s along with steep mid-level lapse rates will support a confined corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. A few to several high-based supercells should develop with large hail as the primary hazard, along with isolated severe wind gusts. This will initially be across central Nebraska and then southwestward into northwest Kansas. A strengthening southerly low-level jet during the evening may support a small cluster evolving south over southwest Nebraska/western Kansas with a continued wind/hail threat. The northern High Plains portion should similarly see a few to several supercells developing off the higher terrain in Wyoming/far southern Montana/southwest South Dakota. While buoyancy will be weaker here and the boundary layer not as deep, 35-45 kt effective shear will be conducive to a few long-track cells capable of producing sporadic hail swaths up to around golf ball size, particularly across east-central/northeast Wyoming. ...Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic/Northeast States.. While overall regional severe coverage will be lesser after a couple of prior active days, along with increasingly meridional and weaker wind profiles, at least isolated damaging winds will again be possible across much of the region. One area of focus for the possibility of a few supercells and slow-moving multicell clustering will be downstream of an MCV over western Pennsylvania. Here, pockets of moderate insolation should support a plume of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE centered on the Delaware Valley. As storms develop and impinge on this buoyancy plume this afternoon, coincident with a mesoscale belt of slightly stronger mid-level flow as sampled by recent KCCX VWP data (30+ kt in lowest 3km AGL), the potential for sporadic damaging winds along with isolated, marginally severe hail should increase. Farther south, a broad plume of weak to moderate buoyancy and steepened low-level lapse rates will support the potential for localized damaging wind gusts. With somewhat weaker mid-level lapse rates and slightly less deep-layer shear relative to farther north, potential for a more organized severe threat appears nebulous at this time. ...South-central/southeast Texas... Hot temperatures in excess of 100 F will again be common to the west of overnight convection outflow (now over the western Gulf of Mexico) and elevated thunderstorms that have redeveloped today across east-central/southeast Texas. While some initial large hail will be possible with storms near the coast, the primary threat should be sporadic severe wind gusts. ...Great Basin... Coincident with a disturbance or two embedded within low-amplitude westerlies, and along the leading periphery of gradually increasing PW values from the southwest, at least isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon. With moderately strong mid-level winds, any of these high-based storms will be capable of producing dry microbursts with severe-caliber wind gusts. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CDT Sat Sep 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... The previous forecast remains valid with no changes. ..Lyons.. 09/09/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0130 AM CDT Sat Sep 09 2023/ ...Synopsis... Some dampening of the upper ridge is expected across portions of the central and southern U.S. tomorrow/Sunday, as a mid-level impulse ejects into the central Plains. The ejection of this mid-level trough will hasten the southward surge of a cold front across the central U.S., which will ultimately bring about cooler and moist conditions. Locally dry and breezy conditions may precede the approaching cold front across the southern Plains on Sunday afternoon. However, an appreciable overlap of dry and windy conditions, capable of supporting significant wildfire-spread potential, is not expected. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Sat Sep 09 2023 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...WESTERN KANSAS...NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong thunderstorms are possible across parts of the southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains Sunday afternoon and evening. Some of these may pose a risk for severe wind and hail. ...Synopsis... Models indicate that the westerlies in the northern mid-latitudes of the eastern Pacific and North America will remain amplified through this period, with one significant trough pivoting inland across the British Columbia and Pacific Northwest coast. Downstream, mid-level ridging will remain strong across the Canadian Prairies and northern U.S. Rockies, while troughing digs across northwestern Ontario southwestward through much of the northern U.S. Great Plains and upper Mississippi Valley by late Sunday night. In the southern mid- and subtropic latitudes, flow is forecast to become less amplified, as a persistent prominent mid-level high substantively weakens to the west-southwest of the Texas Big Bend vicinity. It appears that a weak downstream low will become increasingly sheared and accelerate within confluent flow east-northeast of the southern Appalachians. This may be accompanied by the development of a weak wave along a weak surface frontal zone, across and offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast Sunday through Sunday night. On the northeastern periphery of the weakening subtropical high, models indicate that mid-level flow will transition from broadly anticyclonic to cyclonic across the Colorado Rockies into central Great Plains, to the south of the digging troughing across the northern Great Plains. This is forecast to be accompanied by modestly deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies during the day Sunday, in advance of cool surface ridging nosing southward to the lee of the northern Rockies. ...Southern Rockies and adjacent Great Plains... Within the deepening lee surface troughing, models indicate that at least modest boundary-layer CAPE may develop with daytime heating, beneath steep lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates. The NAM appears on the more aggressive side with peak mixed-layer CAPE exceeding 2500 J/kg, but general magnitudes on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg appear probable, beneath a modest (but increasingly favorably sheared) west to northwesterly mid-level flow regime. With the onset of mid-level height falls, possibly aided by an embedded short wave perturbation, scattered vigorous thunderstorms are expected to develop across and to the lee of the southern Rockies late Sunday afternoon and evening. Given the thermodynamic profiles, including the steep lapse rates and a considerable degree of unsaturation in lower/mid-levels, some of this activity may gradually organize and pose a risk for marginally severe wind and hail before weakening Sunday evening. ...Southern Mid Atlantic Coast vicinity... Strong thunderstorm development might become possible near and in advance of the developing frontal wave, particularly across parts of southeastern Virginia/eastern North Carolina late Sunday afternoon and evening. Despite generally weak lower/mid-tropospheric lapse rates, it appears that boundary-layer moisture might be sufficient to support moderate to large mixed-layer CAPE. However, due to lingering uncertainties, including the likely continuing presence of generally weak wind fields and shear, it remains unclear if the severe weather threat will meet or exceed 5 percent severe probabilities. ..Kerr.. 09/09/2023 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 091719
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Sep 9 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jova, located about a thousand miles west of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Ongoing drought and declining groundwater and streamflows led the City of Winchester to declare a Drought Emergency. Frederick Water shares a mutual water purchase agreement with Winchester, and upgraded its Drought Warning to a Drought Emergency. Residential customers were urged to curb their water use by 20% and non-residential customers should reduce their usage by 25%. WJLA (Washington, D.C.), Sept 8, 2023

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0500 PM CDT Fri Sep 08 2023 Valid 101200Z - 161200Z A building high across the central/western US will bring dry and warm conditions across much of the western US and keep winds primarily light, tempering the fire weather risk within the extended period. Moisture is expected to return across the Southwest and Central/Southern Plains late D3 Sunday/D4 Monday, bringing a return of wetting rainfall and thunderstorm chances. Very little rainfall is expected across the West Coast and Pacific Northwest which will likely lead to some drying of fuels. By D6 Wednesday - D7 Thursday, a deepening trough across the Great Lakes will lead to a westward shift of the ridge axis. Overall, no widespread signal for sustained 20 mph within receptive fuels precludes the need to include any areas. ..Thornton.. 09/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

MD 2112 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA
Mesoscale Discussion 2112 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0420 PM CDT Fri Sep 08 2023 Areas affected...portions of far northern North Carolina into southeast Virginia Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 082120Z - 082245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few instances of severe wind or hail remain possible for the rest of the afternoon. The severe threat should be relatively isolated and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Multicellular storms are propagating north toward the NC/VA border, and some of these storms have a history of producing severe wind and hail (including a measured gust exceeding 65 kts an hour or so ago). While vertical shear is weak, these storms should continue developing northward and pulse in intensity amid a heated boundary layer (90+ F surface temperatures supporting 2500+ J/kg MLCAPE). Damaging gusts remain the main threat, though an instance or two of severe hail may still occur with the stronger storm cores given 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates. The severe threat should remain isolated into the evening hours, so a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not currently anticipated. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 09/08/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...AKQ...RAH...RNK... LAT...LON 36357912 37077859 37427775 37477736 37267686 36907627 36387626 36197642 36147768 36357912 Read more

WW 0675 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 675 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2111 ..LYONS..09/08/23 ATTN...WFO...BOX...ALY...GYX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 675 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC003-005-013-082240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE HARTFORD LITCHFIELD TOLLAND MEC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-023-025-027-031-082240- ME . MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANDROSCOGGIN CUMBERLAND FRANKLIN KENNEBEC KNOX LINCOLN OXFORD SAGADAHOC SOMERSET WALDO YORK MAC003-009-011-013-015-017-027-082240- MA . MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE Read more

WW 675 SEVERE TSTM CT MA ME NH NY VT CW 081935Z - 090300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 675 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 335 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Connecticut Massachusetts Maine New Hampshire Eastern New York Southern Vermont Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 335 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Clusters of storms will continue to develop across the region, with damaging winds and some hail possible with the strongest storms. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles east and west of a line from 45 miles west northwest of Bangor ME to 40 miles west southwest of Windsor Locks CT. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 674... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 23025. ...Guyer Read more

WW 0674 Status Updates
000-082240- STATUS REPORT ON WW 674 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2111 ..LYONS..09/08/23 ATTN...WFO...OKX...LWX...PHI...BGM...CTP...RLX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 674 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS CTC001-009-082240- CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD NEW HAVEN DEC001-003-005-082240- DE . DELAWARE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE KENT NEW CASTLE SUSSEX DCC001-082240- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA Read more

WW 674 SEVERE TSTM CT DC DE MD NJ NY PA VA WV CW 081910Z - 090300Z
WVZ000-CWZ000-090300- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 674 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 310 PM EDT Fri Sep 8 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest Connecticut District Of Columbia Delaware Maryland New Jersey Southern New York Eastern and South-Central Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Friday afternoon and evening from 310 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph likely Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible SUMMARY...Multiple corridors of storms will continue to increase and intensify through late afternoon/early evening, including near-coastal areas and the I-95 corridor as well as near the mountains/Blue Ridge. Damaging winds can be expected regionally along with some hail. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 105 statute miles east and west of a line from 50 miles east northeast of Wilkesbarre PA to 25 miles east of Staunton VA. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 22025. ...Guyer Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2023 20:36:23 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Sep 2023 21:35:48 GMT

Issued at 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 082035 PWSEP1 HURRICANE JOVA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC FRI SEP 08 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 75 KTS...85 MPH...140 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 125W 34 21 2(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) 25N 125W 34 4 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) 25N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 8(12) 1(13) X(13) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 082035 TCDEP1 Hurricane Jova Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023 Jova continues to weaken as it encounters cooler sea surface temperatures. The overall satellite depiction of Jova is that of a weakening tropical system, encountering a more stable environment. A SSMIS microwave pass that came in just after the previous advisory, shows that banding around Jova is thinning, and the inner core is collapsing as dry air wraps into the system. Cloud tops within the convection have been warming throughout the day as well. Subjective and objective satellite estimates have continued to decrease throughout the day. The initial intensity has been set to 75 kt, which represents a blend of the data-T and current intensity Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Environmental conditions along the forecast track are becoming less favorable, as the hurricane is moving over cool sea surface temperatures and into a more stable airmass. The latest NHC forecast continues to show steady weakening and is similar to the previous advisory. The GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite show the system becoming devoid of convection in about 3 days, and Jova is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low at that time. Jova is moving to the west-northwest at 13 kt. This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue for the next couple of days while the cyclone rounds the end of a ridge centered over the southwestern United States. As Jova weakens, the system is forecast to turn westward to west-southwestward into the low-level flow towards the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is close to the previous advisory, just slightly slower and lies near the consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/2100Z 20.4N 122.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 09/0600Z 21.3N 124.1W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 09/1800Z 22.6N 125.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 10/0600Z 23.8N 127.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 10/1800Z 24.6N 128.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 11/0600Z 24.9N 128.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 11/1800Z 24.6N 129.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 12/1800Z 24.1N 132.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 082035 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Jova Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 PM PDT Fri Sep 08 2023 ...JOVA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST OF CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.4N 122.4W ABOUT 820 MI...1320 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Jova was located near latitude 20.4 North, longitude 122.4 West. Jova is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h), and this general motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is forecast during the next several days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jova are expected to reach portions of the coast of California later today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kelly