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Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023 400 WTPZ21 KNHC 102035 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 127.8W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 127.8W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 127.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.0N 128.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.8N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.2N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.3N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.3N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 127.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDERAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023 399 WTPZ31 KNHC 102035 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023 ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY AS JOVA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 127.8W ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 127.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Jova has become a remnant low and will continue to gradually spin down. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jova are affecting the western coast of Mexico and are occuring along portions of the coast of California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023 399 WTPZ31 KNHC 102035 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova Advisory Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023 ...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY AS JOVA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.8N 127.8W ABOUT 1135 MI...1830 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova was located near latitude 24.8 North, longitude 127.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Jova has become a remnant low and will continue to gradually spin down. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Jova are affecting the western coast of Mexico and are occuring along portions of the coast of California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Kelly

...DANGEROUS SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS CONTINUE ALONG THE COASTS OF CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY AS JOVA BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 the center of Jova was located near 24.8, -127.8 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

MD 2133 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO...AND THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2133 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Areas affected...parts of northeastern New Mexico...southeastern Colorado...and the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles into southwestern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 102013Z - 102245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development is possible through 5-6 PM CDT. This may include an isolated supercell or two, posing a risk for severe hail, locally strong surface gusts and perhaps a brief tornado. DISCUSSION...Low-level moistening is still ongoing within weak, but slowly deepening surface troughing to the lee of the southern Rockies. This is occurring beneath warm and capping elevated mixed-layer, and mid-level ridging to the north of a still fairly prominent subtropical high centered over the northwestern Mexican Plateau. In response to a series of short wave perturbations progressing around the periphery of the ridge in the near term, and, later, digging mid-level troughing across the northern Great Plains, mid-level heights are gradually beginning to fall. It appears that large-scale forcing for ascent will lead to increasing convective development spreading off the Front Range into the destabilizing boundary layer across and east of northeastern New Mexico and southeastern Colorado by early this evening. Potential for the initiation of sustained thunderstorm development in advance of this activity, through late afternoon, remains more unclear. Based on objective analysis, mixed-layer CAPE remains fairly modest to the north of the Texas Panhandle vicinity, currently maximized around 1000 J/kg near the Colorado/Kansas border. However, shear for boundary-layer based thunderstorm development is sufficient for supercells beneath 30 kt west-northwesterly mid-level flow (around 500 mb). Farther south, mixed-layer CAPE is more substantive, but shear remains weaker. With additional surface heating, it appears possible that weakening of lingering mid-level inhibition may become sufficient for at least widely scattered thunderstorm development. A zone of enhanced lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, currently centered to the west/northwest of Garden City KS, may provide one potential focus for thunderstorm initiation during the next hour or two. As this activity acquires increasing inflow of destabilizing boundary-layer, it may rapidly intensify and organize, accompanied by increasing potential for severe hail and perhaps some risk for a tornado through 22-23Z. ..Kerr/Guyer.. 09/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...GLD...LUB...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 37350277 38420253 38800174 38540046 38029982 36909958 33770062 34030194 34280395 35780381 37350277 Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected through this evening across eastern Colorado and western Kansas into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the main threats. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track and no changes have been made with the 20z update. See previous discussion below for more details. ..Leitman.. 09/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1138 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023/ ...Central High Plains southward to west Texas... A nearly zonal belt of moderately strong westerlies will exist from the central Rockies into the south-central Plains. Weak surface cyclogenesis will occur across southeast Colorado/far southwest Kansas as a cold front shifts southward across the south-central High Plains. A confined plume of modified Gulf air will be maintained across a portion of west Texas into southwest Kansas near and ahead of the front. Robust boundary-layer heating is expected especially to the west/southwest of convection that persists across the region into midday, netting a corridor of moderate buoyancy mainly from northwest Texas into southwest Kansas later today. Afternoon thunderstorm development should be focused within three regimes. One being high-based storms emanating off the southern Rockies, two being along the front and buoyancy plume intersection in west Kansas, and three near the dryline/remnant outflow intersection in the Texas Panhandle. For the latter two, low-level veering of the wind profile with height beneath mid to upper level speed shear should favor at least a few discrete supercells with a primary threat of large hail. Upstream high-based activity should overtake slower-moving supercells and Kansas supercells will also be undercut from north to south by the accelerating cold front. This should yield broader cluster development towards early evening with some uptick in severe wind potential anticipated. ...Southern New England... A weak mid-level disturbance and warm/moist conveyor appears to be influencing a corridor of recently increased thunderstorms at late morning. A moist air mass and cloud breaks/additional heating will lead to modest destabilization, although updraft accelerations will be somewhat tempered by poor mid-level lapse rates. A few microbursts could occur, but overall severe potential should be tempered by the marginal thermodynamic environment and effective shear of 20-25 kt or less. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0244 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...20z Update... Generally quiet fire-weather conditions are again expected over much of the western CONUS D2/Monday. Locally breezy winds will be possible over parts of the Columbia Gorge and lee of the Cascades coincident with periodic drier surface conditions. However, widespread dry and windy conditions are not expected over the West, precluding broader fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 09/10/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0143 AM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023/ ...Synopsis... A surface cold front will continue to sweep across the southern Plains as a mid-level trough becomes situated over the central U.S. tomorrow/Monday. Cooler, moist conditions will usher in behind the cold front and will overspread much of the Plains states, limiting widespread, significant wildfire-spread potential. Dry conditions should also persist across the western U.S. However, the lack of stronger surface winds should keep wildfire-spread potential localized. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 101716
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Jova, located a little over one thousand miles west of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

MD 2126 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2126 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0519 PM CDT Sat Sep 09 2023 Areas affected...portions of eastern Wyoming into far southwestern South Dakota and northwestern Nebraska Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 092219Z - 092345Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat may be increasing across portions of the northern High Plains. The strongest storms may produce a few bouts of severe hail or wind. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance may be needed if more widespread convective coverage becomes evident. DISCUSSION...Convective initiation has occurred along the lee of the Rockies in eastern WY while multicells/transient supercells have become established across southwestern SD. The SD storms are expected to remain confined to the more favorable terrain, with a persistent but sparse severe wind/hail threat. However, the storms should intensify and move off of the higher terrain in WY as a weak mid-level impulse crests the synoptic ridge and ejects into the central High Plains. Boundary-layer moisture is meager. However, steep low and mid-level lapse rates are contributing to 1000+ J/kg MLCAPE, which is adequate to support some severe wind/hail with supercells that can develop given elongated hodographs and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear. Nonetheless, discrete storms and their severe threat should be isolated, so convective trends are being closely monitored for greater storm coverage and the need for a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 09/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 41550500 43390680 44680696 44980582 44820466 44300337 43710285 43220272 42680299 41760401 41550500 Read more

WW 0677 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 677 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..SPC..09/09/23 ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...OKX...BGM...CTP... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 677 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS DCC001-092340- DC . DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA MDC003-005-013-015-021-025-027-031-033-043-510-092340- MD . MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CARROLL CECIL FREDERICK HARFORD HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES WASHINGTON MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE BALTIMORE CITY NJC005-007-015-019-021-027-031-035-037-041-092340- Read more

WW 677 SEVERE TSTM DC MD NJ NY PA VA WV CW 092025Z - 100300Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 677 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 425 PM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of District Of Columbia Maryland New Jersey Southern New York Central and Eastern Pennsylvania Northern Virginia Far Eastern West Virginia Coastal Waters * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 425 PM until 1100 PM EDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue across the region through early/mid-evening, with locally damaging winds and some hail occurring. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 90 statute miles east and west of a line from 20 miles east of Binghamton NY to 10 miles east southeast of Washington DC. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 676... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 55 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 21035. ...Guyer Read more

MD 2125 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 677... FOR MIDDLE ATLANTIC
Mesoscale Discussion 2125 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0506 PM CDT Sat Sep 09 2023 Areas affected...Middle Atlantic Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 677... Valid 092206Z - 100000Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 677 continues. SUMMARY...Severe threat continues with robust convection this evening. DISCUSSION...Numerous showers/thunderstorms have developed over the Middle Atlantic early this evening, especially from northern VA, north across central/eastern PA arcing into southern New England. Boundary layer has been overturned across the southern Middle Atlantic with several pockets of modest buoyancy remaining from central/eastern PA into CT. Latest radar imagery suggests a longer-lived MCV over western NY, just south of lake Ontario, is lifting northeast. It appears this feature is having some influence on convection trailing south into central PA along the primary zone of low-level confluence. Over the next few hours much of the greater instability should be overturned as widespread convection/clusters coalesce over central/eastern PA. Locally damaging winds, along with some hail remain possible until this air mass is overturned. ..Darrow.. 09/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... LAT...LON 38787851 42187735 42187382 38777519 38787851 Read more

WW 0676 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 676 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..09/09/23 ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 676 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS NEC019-029-041-047-063-073-085-101-111-113-117-135-137-163-175- 092340- NE . NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUFFALO CHASE CUSTER DAWSON FRONTIER GOSPER HAYES KEITH LINCOLN LOGAN MCPHERSON PERKINS PHELPS SHERMAN VALLEY THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 676 SEVERE TSTM NE 091945Z - 100200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 676 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 245 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southwest and South-Central Nebraska * Effective this Saturday afternoon and evening from 245 PM until 900 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible SUMMARY...An unstable environment favorable for severe storms including supercells exists across the region near a weak surface low and front. Some of these storms may produce large hail and locally damaging winds through early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75 statute miles east and west of a line from 25 miles northwest of Broken Bow NE to 50 miles south of North Platte NE. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

MD 2124 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2124 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0459 PM CDT Sat Sep 09 2023 Areas affected...portions of central into southern Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092159Z - 092330Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A few instances of severe wind and hail may accompany the stronger storms. The severe threat should remain isolated and a WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Pulse cellular and multicellular storms have been increasing in intensity and coverage across central TX toward the middle TX coast over the past couple of hours. Despite weak vertical shear, these storms continue to intensify atop a hot, well-mixed boundary layer, with surface temperatures well exceeding 100 F, boosting MLCAPE to 1500+ J/kg. Water-loaded downdrafts within the stronger storm cores may support a couple of severe gusts along with an instance or two of hail. Nonetheless, the lack of more appreciable vertical shear should render the severe threat brief and isolated, precluding a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 09/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...HGX...FWD...CRP...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 27729703 29299830 29359841 30339919 30920011 31260040 32119983 32259910 32229840 31579733 30549650 29639598 29129570 28709562 27729703 Read more

MD 2123 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...EXTREME EASTERN COLORADO...EXTREME NORTHWEST KANSAS...EXTREME NORTHEAST COLORADO...WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE...EXTREME NORTHWEST TEXAS PANHANDLE
Mesoscale Discussion 2123 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0447 PM CDT Sat Sep 09 2023 Areas affected...extreme southwest Nebraska...extreme eastern Colorado...extreme northwest Kansas...extreme northeast Colorado...western Oklahoma Panhandle...extreme northwest Texas Panhandle Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 092147Z - 092315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat may be increasing across portions of the central and southern High Plains, both with storms approaching from central NE, and with the potential for storms to develop along the CO/KS border area. Severe wind and hail are the main concerns. Conditions are being monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Multiple supercells across central NE have begun to grow upscale into an MCS structure, with the southwest flank of this structure anchoring along the surface lee trough (located from southwest NE and trailing along the CO/KS border). This developing MCS may continue to propagate south-southwestward amid a buoyant and sheared airmass, which in turn may support an increasing severe threat into northwestern KS later this evening. Multiple attempts at convective initiation have also been observed along the lee-trough in extreme eastern CO. Though convective coverage along the lee trough remains questionable, any storms that can develop may become supercellular, supporting severe wind and hail given 7.5-8 C/km mid-level lapse rates and elongated hodographs with slight low-level curvature. Any severe threat that materializes may last for at least a few hours. As such, convective trends are being monitored for the need of a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance pending adequate convective coverage, mainly across northwest KS. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 09/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...ABQ... LAT...LON 36120368 38060271 39530225 40230212 40480167 40390053 40229965 39879954 39159984 38240026 37400120 36160255 36120368 Read more

MD 2122 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WESTERN TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 2122 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Sat Sep 09 2023 Areas affected...portions of eastern New Mexico into far western Texas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 092125Z - 092300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated severe gust or instance of hail may accompany the stronger storms this afternoon. A WW issuance is not expected. DISCUSSION...Multicellular and pulse-cellular storms have been gradually intensifying over the higher terrain in central NM, where strong surface heating and boundary-layer mixing has boosted MLCAPE over 1000 J/kg. Given scant low-level moisture, these storms are high-based and are expected to remain so through the rest of the afternoon. 9+ C/km low-level lapse rates (per 21Z mesoanalysis) should support the potential for a severe gust or two. Given steep lapse rates also present in the 700-500 mb layer, some hail may also accompany the most potent storm cores. Nonetheless, the severe threat should remain isolated overall and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 09/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ... LAT...LON 34050554 35040511 35450475 35680408 35590333 35320302 34640293 33990305 33540329 33370355 33310440 33250488 34050554 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 PM CDT Sat Sep 09 2023 Valid 111200Z - 171200Z Overall fire-weather concerns through the extended forecast period are low. Periodic troughing across the western US and Pacific Northwest this weekend will allow for cooler temperatures with slightly stronger winds through midweek next week. This pattern is forecast to give way to a building ridge late next week into the weekend. Warmer temperatures, but weaker flow and localized fire-weather conditions are expected. Periodic thunderstorms are also possible across the West, though the coverage of dry storms also appears low. ...Northwest... Weak troughing along with a slight increase in mid-level flow will overspread the area through the weekend and into early next week. Periodic gusty west winds are possible over parts of the eastern Cascades, Columbia and Snake River Basins through mid week. While not overly strong, gusts may occasionally reach 15 mph with afternoon RH below 20% on a localized basis. The strongest winds are expected D4/Tuesday into D5/Wed with the passage of a stronger shortwave trough. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop, though coverage is expected to remain low. Fire-weather concerns shift toward warm, dry and unstable conditions late next week into next weekend as a mid-level ridge is forecast to build over the west in the wake of earlier troughing. With the main ridge axis offshore, weak easterly flow is possible over parts of the Cascades. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible but widespread coverage is not anticipated. Thunderstorm chances may increase again toward the end of the period as a series of weak upper-level troughs approach the northwest into the weekend. However, predictability remains low. ..Lyons.. 09/09/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2023 20:35:31 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 09 Sep 2023 21:35:39 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 092034 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Jova Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 PM PDT Sat Sep 09 2023 Jova's convection continues to dissipate this afternoon, with only a few bursts in the inner core. Microwave imagery from SSMI/S depicts decreased convective banding and the overall structure of the system continues to deteriorate as well. A blend of subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates suggest an intensity of 45 kt, which is the initial intensity for this advisory. Jova is forecast to continue weakening for the next few days as the system moves over cool sea surface temperatures, and into a stable air mass. Simulated satellite imagery from the GFS and ECMWF models suggest Jova will be devoid of deep convection and become a remnant low in about 36 hours, and this is reflected in the NHC intensity forecast. The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 8 kt. Jova should continue to move generally toward the northwest around the edge of a subtropical ridge during the next day or so. As Jova weakens, the system is forecast to turn westward to west-southwestward within the low-level flow through the end of the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous forecast track. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/2100Z 22.9N 126.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 10/0600Z 23.6N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 10/1800Z 24.3N 127.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 11/0600Z 24.6N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 11/1800Z 24.4N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 12/0600Z 24.0N 130.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 12/1800Z 23.1N 133.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly