Aggregator

Since the start of the year, Texas has had 4,279 wildfires that have burned 165,837 acres. AgriLife Today (Texas A&M) (College Station, Texas), Sept 11, 2023

Intense heat, low humidity, and dry fuels in the South have led to extreme fire behavior this summer. On Aug. 24, Al Davis, Texas A&M Forest Service director and chair of the South-Central Forest Fire Compact activated an interagency agreement that allows for enhanced personnel and equipment resource movement among states. The USDA Forest Service, Louisiana Department of Agriculture and Forestry and other partners have worked together to battle the wildfires, having provided large air tankers, other aircraft and hundreds of support personnel. The Southern Area remains the top priority for wildfires nationally, per the National Incident Management Situation Report. For the first time, the Southern Area has topped the West as a national priority for wildfire response at this time of year. This year in Texas, 4,279 wildfires have burned 165,837 acres. In August alone, Texas agency firefighters responded to 519 wildfires during the month, compared to an average of 151 wildfires. Fire activity was similarly high in Louisiana where 555 wildfires charred about 53,464 acres, compared with an August average over the past four year of 34 wildfires affecting 295 acres. AgriLife Today (Texas A&M) (College Station, Texas), Sept 11, 2023

The Shenandoah National Park is experiencing high fire danger due to high temperatures and drought conditions, according to a news release by Shenandoah National Park. Visitors were encouraged to be very careful with cigarettes and campfires. Harrisonburg Daily News-Record (Va.), Sept 11, 2023

WW 0682 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0682 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 682 SEVERE TSTM NM TX 112055Z - 120400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 682 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Eastern New Mexico West Texas * Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop through late afternoon and early evening as a front advances southward across the region. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80 statute miles north and south of a line from 50 miles north northwest of Roswell NM to 30 miles northeast of Abilene TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 30025. ...Guyer Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Valid 131200Z - 191200Z Across the Western US, Pacific troughing is forecast to weaken and shift eastward as mid-level ridging intensifies through the first part of the extended forecast period. Occasional gusty winds may linger across parts of the Columbia Basin and Snake River Plain through D4/Thursday, but widespread gusty winds and low humidity are not anticipated. In response to the building high pressure, flow aloft will turn more northerly and weaken across the Cascades as the main ridge axis remains off shore. As the ridge continues to build through the remainder of the week and into next weekend, a warming and drying trend will develop across parts of northern CA and the Pacific Northwest. While drier and warmer, the lack of stronger flow aloft suggests widespread critical fire-weather concerns are unlikely. This general upper air pattern is forecast to remain fairly stagnant through next weekend with the ridge and weak flow loft dominating the western half of the CONUS. Across the rest of the US, cooler and wetter conditions will prevail, keeping fire-weather concerns low through the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 09/11/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Valid 112000Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe wind and large hail will be possible across parts of eastern New Mexico and west Texas through mid-evening. A few storms may be significantly severe with wind gusts to 80 mph and hail to tennis ball size. ...20z Update... The previous outlook remains on track, and no changes have been made with the 20z update. Isolated thunderstorms producing locally strong gusts are ongoing near the sea breeze from southeast GA into northeast FL. This activity will continue, with some increase in coverage with southward extent over the next few hours. Further to the west, thunderstorms are beginning to develop to the cool side of a cold front over eastern NM into the TX Panhandle. Additional thunderstorm development is expected over the next couple of hours. Severe potential will increase/persist across parts of eastern NM into west TX into this evening with damaging gusts and large hail possible. Reference MCD 2137 for info on short term severe thunderstorm and watch issuance potential. ..Leitman.. 09/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023/ ...Eastern New Mexico/west Texas... No appreciable outlook changes appear warranted for the region. A low-amplitude shortwave trough over the southern High Plains, and associated belt of enhanced (40 kt) mid-level westerlies, will continue generally eastward over the south-central Plains, and toward the Ozarks/ArkLaTex through late tonight. This will be as a relatively strong cold front continues southward and accelerates later this afternoon into tonight. Scattered thunderstorms are most likely to develop off the higher terrain of New Mexico, first along and to the cool side of the surface boundary during the early to mid-afternoon and later into the well-mixed boundary layer over the Permian Basin and Texas South Plains. Isolated thunderstorms may also form near the surface front/dryline intersection in the Low Rolling Plains/Big Country vicinity. For this latter region, a more favorable discrete supercell wind profile and slower undercutting of the surface front may yield a threat for 2-2.5 inch hail amid MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg. Storms farther west should tend to more quickly consolidate into southeast-moving clusters. Those clusters that can anchor along the undercutting front into the deeply mixed air to the south should have the best chance to produce occasional severe wind gusts from 60-80 mph. These threats should gradually weaken after dusk, but may persist on an isolated basis across the Concho Valley/Edwards Plateau vicinity of west-central Texas as a low-level jet strengthens over the Lower Pecos Valley. ...North/central Florida... Ample heating is occurring at midday with temperatures commonly soaring into the lower 90s F, which is contributing to MLCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg. Isolated thunderstorms should develop along sea breeze boundaries this afternoon and likely collide over the central/eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula. 20-25 kt effective bulk shear could favor loose multicell clustering with a threat of sporadic wind gusts from 40-60 mph and possibly small hail. ...Southern New England... While locally heavy rainfall will likely be the primary scenario, it is possible that adequate buoyancy will exist with modest-strength westerlies for some potential of localized wind damage with a few of the thunderstorms. However, any such potential should remain very limited/localized with the overall risk of organized severe storms remaining low. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0209 PM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023 Valid 121200Z - 131200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Cascades... Troughing over the Pacific Northwest will allow for a slight increase in westerly flow over the Cascades and western Columbia Basin D2/Tuesday afternoon and evening. Gusty west winds may periodically reach 15-20 mph through favored terrain gaps. While surface conditions will not be overly dry, occasional RH values below 30% may support locally elevated fire-weather conditions for a few hours. Currently, confidence in more widespread conditions remains too low to introduce any forecast probabilities. ..Lyons.. 09/11/2023 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0127 AM CDT Mon Sep 11 2023/ ...Synopsis... Cooler, moist surface conditions should overspread much of the central and southern CONUS tomorrow/Tuesday, reinforced by surface high pressure over the region. Dry conditions will persist over the Interior West. However, rainfall tempering fuel receptiveness or weak surface winds should limit significant wildfire-spread potential to localized areas, precluding fire weather highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

The level of Lake Livingston has dropped so low that debris from a tornado in April 2020 has been exposed in the lakebed. The EF-3 tornado took three lives, injured at least 20 more people and destroyed several dozen homes and businesses in Polk County. Residents want the debris cleaned up so it’s not an underwater hazard when the lake eventually refills. The Trinity River Authority intends to clean up the sheet metal and other material when conditions permit. In the meantime, TRA wants boaters to be cautious when the water level is low. KRIV FOX 26 Houston (Texas), Sept 7, 2023

Residents in central Virginia were urged to conserve water by the Rivanna Water and Sewer Authority, Albemarle County Service Authority, and City of Charlottesville Utilities Department. 1070 WINA (Charlottesville, Va.), Sept 11, 2023

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 111733
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Sep 11 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

Mandatory water restrictions took effect in Littlestown on Saturday, September 9, due to the lack of rain. Two of the Borough's "critical water sources" cannot be used, according to a Facebook post. Hanover Evening Sun (Pa.), Sept 11, 2023

Duluth area residents were asked to conserve water. The Minnesota Department of Natural Resources recently recognized the Western Lake Superior watershed as being in a Drought Warning response phase. Duluth gets its municipal water from Lake Superior and supplies water to Hermantown, Proctor and Rice Lake. Northern News Now (Duluth, Minn.), Sept 8, 2023

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0454 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Valid 121200Z - 181200Z Generally quiescent fire-weather conditions are expected across the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Pacific Northwest troughing is forecast to remain in place through the first part of next week before mid-level ridging builds over the West. Cooler and breezy conditions will give way to warmer and drier weather, with generally poor overlap of critical fire-weather conditions and dry fuels expected across the western states. ...Northwest... Through the first part of next week, the persistent mid-level trough over the Pacific Northwest will remain in place, subtly enhancing west/southwest flow over the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Ensemble forecasts suggest winds will likely be strongest D3/Tues into D4/Wed east of the Cascades and across the Snake River Valley. Isolated thunderstorms may also develop with the passage of the main trough, though coverage is expected to remain low. While surface winds may occasionally reach 15 mph on a localized basis, widespread dry and windy conditions, supporting critical fire-weather concerns, are not expected. Fire-weather concerns shift toward warm, dry and unstable conditions late next week into the first part of next weekend, as a mid-level ridge is forecast to build over the eastern Pacific. With the main ridge axis offshore, weak offshore flow is possible over parts of the Cascades and West Coast. Localized fire-weather concerns are possible, but widespread coverage is not anticipated through the remainder of the extended forecast period. ..Lyons.. 09/10/2023 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0680 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0680 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 680 SEVERE TSTM CO KS OK 102055Z - 110400Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 680 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 355 PM CDT Sun Sep 10 2023 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Southeast Colorado Western Kansas Oklahoma Panhandle * Effective this Sunday afternoon and evening from 355 PM until 1100 PM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop across the region through late afternoon and early evening. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 110 statute miles east and west of a line from 70 miles northeast of Lamar CO to 20 miles west of Guymon OK. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector 29025. ...Guyer Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 10 Sep 2023 20:38:12 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 10 Sep 2023 21:36:27 GMT

Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 102036 TCDEP1 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jova Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112023 200 PM PDT Sun Sep 10 2023 Jova has been devoid of deep convection for roughly 12 hours or so. The overall cloud pattern continues to become disheveled, as the system gradually spins down. Given that the system has not been producing convection for some time now, it no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone. Therefore, Jova has degenerated into a post-tropical remnant low. The initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory, based on a recent scatterometer pass which is in agreement with the latest subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. Jova will continue to spin down for the next couple of days as it remains a remnant low, before opening up into a trough in about 72 h. No significant changes were made to the official forecast, which lies near the consensus intensity aids. Jova's initial motion is estimated to be northwestward at 5 kt, A gradual turn toward the west and west-southwest, with an increase in forward motion is forecast. The NHC forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, near the model consensus. This is the last advisory on this system from the National Hurricane Center. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 24.8N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 11/0600Z 25.0N 128.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 11/1800Z 24.8N 129.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 12/0600Z 24.2N 131.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 12/1800Z 23.3N 133.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 13/0600Z 22.3N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 102036 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOVA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOVA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 X 11(11) 4(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) $$ FORECASTER KELLY

Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023 400 WTPZ21 KNHC 102035 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOVA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112023 2100 UTC SUN SEP 10 2023 NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM). CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP). POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 127.8W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..105NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 127.8W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 127.6W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 25.0N 128.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 24.8N 129.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 24.2N 131.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.3N 133.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 22.3N 135.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.8N 127.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDERAWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER KELLY