Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The main change to this outlook was to add isolated dry thunderstorm highlights to portions of central and northern Utah. Thunderstorms from prior days may have tempered fuels to a degree. Nonetheless, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected later this afternoon and tonight, and some of these storms may pass over fuel beds that have experienced minimal rainfall. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with minor changes made to existing highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Two primary synoptic features will be responsible for bringing elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Northwest. A mid-level trough progressing eastward across the Bay Area and into the northern Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northeastern California, southern Oregon, and the Snake River Plain of Idaho, while an exiting jet streak associated with a trough centered over Saskatchewan will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northern Montana. These elevated highlights are primarily confined to where the dry and windy conditions correspond to regions where wetting rainfall has not impacted fuels over the last several days. ...Pacific Northeast and the Snake River Plain... Portions of northeastern California into southwestern Oregon, as well as the eastern portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, are expected to have dry and windy conditions that overlap with receptive fuels. Some wetting rainfall has occurred over the last few days, but with recent lightning activity and some pockets of receptive fuels, some potential for wildfire spread exists with any previously existing fires and lightning ignitions. ...Northern Montana... Some uncertainty exists about the receptiveness of fuels over western portions of the highlight area due to recent wetting rainfall, but generally, 20-25 MPH winds and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overlap with pockets of receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Portions of the Great Basin and far southern Montana may see a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Given the uncertainty in precipitation efficiency, and recent wetting rainfall over much of the area, dry thunder highlights have been withheld at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The main change to this outlook was to add isolated dry thunderstorm highlights to portions of central and northern Utah. Thunderstorms from prior days may have tempered fuels to a degree. Nonetheless, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected later this afternoon and tonight, and some of these storms may pass over fuel beds that have experienced minimal rainfall. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with minor changes made to existing highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Two primary synoptic features will be responsible for bringing elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Northwest. A mid-level trough progressing eastward across the Bay Area and into the northern Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northeastern California, southern Oregon, and the Snake River Plain of Idaho, while an exiting jet streak associated with a trough centered over Saskatchewan will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northern Montana. These elevated highlights are primarily confined to where the dry and windy conditions correspond to regions where wetting rainfall has not impacted fuels over the last several days. ...Pacific Northeast and the Snake River Plain... Portions of northeastern California into southwestern Oregon, as well as the eastern portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, are expected to have dry and windy conditions that overlap with receptive fuels. Some wetting rainfall has occurred over the last few days, but with recent lightning activity and some pockets of receptive fuels, some potential for wildfire spread exists with any previously existing fires and lightning ignitions. ...Northern Montana... Some uncertainty exists about the receptiveness of fuels over western portions of the highlight area due to recent wetting rainfall, but generally, 20-25 MPH winds and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overlap with pockets of receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Portions of the Great Basin and far southern Montana may see a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Given the uncertainty in precipitation efficiency, and recent wetting rainfall over much of the area, dry thunder highlights have been withheld at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Plains, Great Basin, and Southwest. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper trough/low will continue to move eastward across the northern parts of the Canadian Prairie provinces today. An associated surface cold front will extend northeast to southwest from eastern ND into SD by late this afternoon. A substantial EML and related cap should inhibit convective development along this boundary for much of the day, even with substantial daytime heating and the presence of moderate to strong instability. Still, most guidance suggests that at least isolated thunderstorms may eventually form by late this afternoon into evening as glancing large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads the northern Plains. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear along and just behind the front should support supercell structures with associated hail/wind threat in any sustained convection. This isolated threat should peak generally in the 22-05Z time frame. But, there is still considerable uncertainty in how many robust thunderstorms will develop along/behind the length of the front and subsequently spread east-northeastward. Have therefore maintained a broad Marginal Risk with this update. ...Great Basin... In the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough, thunderstorm coverage and intensity is generally expected to be less compared to yesterday. Still, moderate instability should develop with daytime heating across parts of eastern NV into western/northwest UT. Scattered thunderstorms should once again form this afternoon across these areas. A well-mixed boundary layer and steepened low-level lapse rates should allow some of this activity to produce occasionally strong to severe wind gusts. A secondary round, and perhaps somewhat greater coverage of convection, may occur tonight across parts of Nevada into western/northern Utah, influenced by the eastward translation of a mid-level shortwave trough over northern California. ...Southwest... The mid-level anti-cyclone over northwest Mexico into the Southwest is forecast to continue slowly weakening through the period as upper ridging becomes more established over the Plains and Upper Midwest. Modest mid-level northerly flow will be maintained over parts of the Southwest, which may aid in convection moving off the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim, and mountains in southeast AZ. Morning visible satellite imagery and surface observations show generally clear conditions across these areas, which will foster robust daytime heating. Even so, confidence in robust thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong/severe gusts reaching the lower desert elevations is less compared to prior days, as mid-level flow should remain rather weak. ...Coastal Carolinas... Modest mid-level west-southwesterly flow will be present across the Carolinas today, on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern states. Daytime heating of a moist airmass will support moderate instability this afternoon. Deep-layer shear approaching 20-25 kt may foster occasionally organized updrafts, although poor lapse rates should generally hinder more robust cores from developing. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with any thunderstorms that can develop and approach the coast through early evening, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low wind probabilities. ..Gleason/Moore.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Plains, Great Basin, and Southwest. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper trough/low will continue to move eastward across the northern parts of the Canadian Prairie provinces today. An associated surface cold front will extend northeast to southwest from eastern ND into SD by late this afternoon. A substantial EML and related cap should inhibit convective development along this boundary for much of the day, even with substantial daytime heating and the presence of moderate to strong instability. Still, most guidance suggests that at least isolated thunderstorms may eventually form by late this afternoon into evening as glancing large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads the northern Plains. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear along and just behind the front should support supercell structures with associated hail/wind threat in any sustained convection. This isolated threat should peak generally in the 22-05Z time frame. But, there is still considerable uncertainty in how many robust thunderstorms will develop along/behind the length of the front and subsequently spread east-northeastward. Have therefore maintained a broad Marginal Risk with this update. ...Great Basin... In the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough, thunderstorm coverage and intensity is generally expected to be less compared to yesterday. Still, moderate instability should develop with daytime heating across parts of eastern NV into western/northwest UT. Scattered thunderstorms should once again form this afternoon across these areas. A well-mixed boundary layer and steepened low-level lapse rates should allow some of this activity to produce occasionally strong to severe wind gusts. A secondary round, and perhaps somewhat greater coverage of convection, may occur tonight across parts of Nevada into western/northern Utah, influenced by the eastward translation of a mid-level shortwave trough over northern California. ...Southwest... The mid-level anti-cyclone over northwest Mexico into the Southwest is forecast to continue slowly weakening through the period as upper ridging becomes more established over the Plains and Upper Midwest. Modest mid-level northerly flow will be maintained over parts of the Southwest, which may aid in convection moving off the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim, and mountains in southeast AZ. Morning visible satellite imagery and surface observations show generally clear conditions across these areas, which will foster robust daytime heating. Even so, confidence in robust thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong/severe gusts reaching the lower desert elevations is less compared to prior days, as mid-level flow should remain rather weak. ...Coastal Carolinas... Modest mid-level west-southwesterly flow will be present across the Carolinas today, on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern states. Daytime heating of a moist airmass will support moderate instability this afternoon. Deep-layer shear approaching 20-25 kt may foster occasionally organized updrafts, although poor lapse rates should generally hinder more robust cores from developing. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with any thunderstorms that can develop and approach the coast through early evening, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low wind probabilities. ..Gleason/Moore.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Plains, Great Basin, and Southwest. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper trough/low will continue to move eastward across the northern parts of the Canadian Prairie provinces today. An associated surface cold front will extend northeast to southwest from eastern ND into SD by late this afternoon. A substantial EML and related cap should inhibit convective development along this boundary for much of the day, even with substantial daytime heating and the presence of moderate to strong instability. Still, most guidance suggests that at least isolated thunderstorms may eventually form by late this afternoon into evening as glancing large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads the northern Plains. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear along and just behind the front should support supercell structures with associated hail/wind threat in any sustained convection. This isolated threat should peak generally in the 22-05Z time frame. But, there is still considerable uncertainty in how many robust thunderstorms will develop along/behind the length of the front and subsequently spread east-northeastward. Have therefore maintained a broad Marginal Risk with this update. ...Great Basin... In the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough, thunderstorm coverage and intensity is generally expected to be less compared to yesterday. Still, moderate instability should develop with daytime heating across parts of eastern NV into western/northwest UT. Scattered thunderstorms should once again form this afternoon across these areas. A well-mixed boundary layer and steepened low-level lapse rates should allow some of this activity to produce occasionally strong to severe wind gusts. A secondary round, and perhaps somewhat greater coverage of convection, may occur tonight across parts of Nevada into western/northern Utah, influenced by the eastward translation of a mid-level shortwave trough over northern California. ...Southwest... The mid-level anti-cyclone over northwest Mexico into the Southwest is forecast to continue slowly weakening through the period as upper ridging becomes more established over the Plains and Upper Midwest. Modest mid-level northerly flow will be maintained over parts of the Southwest, which may aid in convection moving off the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim, and mountains in southeast AZ. Morning visible satellite imagery and surface observations show generally clear conditions across these areas, which will foster robust daytime heating. Even so, confidence in robust thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong/severe gusts reaching the lower desert elevations is less compared to prior days, as mid-level flow should remain rather weak. ...Coastal Carolinas... Modest mid-level west-southwesterly flow will be present across the Carolinas today, on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern states. Daytime heating of a moist airmass will support moderate instability this afternoon. Deep-layer shear approaching 20-25 kt may foster occasionally organized updrafts, although poor lapse rates should generally hinder more robust cores from developing. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with any thunderstorms that can develop and approach the coast through early evening, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low wind probabilities. ..Gleason/Moore.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Plains, Great Basin, and Southwest. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper trough/low will continue to move eastward across the northern parts of the Canadian Prairie provinces today. An associated surface cold front will extend northeast to southwest from eastern ND into SD by late this afternoon. A substantial EML and related cap should inhibit convective development along this boundary for much of the day, even with substantial daytime heating and the presence of moderate to strong instability. Still, most guidance suggests that at least isolated thunderstorms may eventually form by late this afternoon into evening as glancing large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads the northern Plains. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear along and just behind the front should support supercell structures with associated hail/wind threat in any sustained convection. This isolated threat should peak generally in the 22-05Z time frame. But, there is still considerable uncertainty in how many robust thunderstorms will develop along/behind the length of the front and subsequently spread east-northeastward. Have therefore maintained a broad Marginal Risk with this update. ...Great Basin... In the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough, thunderstorm coverage and intensity is generally expected to be less compared to yesterday. Still, moderate instability should develop with daytime heating across parts of eastern NV into western/northwest UT. Scattered thunderstorms should once again form this afternoon across these areas. A well-mixed boundary layer and steepened low-level lapse rates should allow some of this activity to produce occasionally strong to severe wind gusts. A secondary round, and perhaps somewhat greater coverage of convection, may occur tonight across parts of Nevada into western/northern Utah, influenced by the eastward translation of a mid-level shortwave trough over northern California. ...Southwest... The mid-level anti-cyclone over northwest Mexico into the Southwest is forecast to continue slowly weakening through the period as upper ridging becomes more established over the Plains and Upper Midwest. Modest mid-level northerly flow will be maintained over parts of the Southwest, which may aid in convection moving off the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim, and mountains in southeast AZ. Morning visible satellite imagery and surface observations show generally clear conditions across these areas, which will foster robust daytime heating. Even so, confidence in robust thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong/severe gusts reaching the lower desert elevations is less compared to prior days, as mid-level flow should remain rather weak. ...Coastal Carolinas... Modest mid-level west-southwesterly flow will be present across the Carolinas today, on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern states. Daytime heating of a moist airmass will support moderate instability this afternoon. Deep-layer shear approaching 20-25 kt may foster occasionally organized updrafts, although poor lapse rates should generally hinder more robust cores from developing. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with any thunderstorms that can develop and approach the coast through early evening, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low wind probabilities. ..Gleason/Moore.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Plains, Great Basin, and Southwest. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper trough/low will continue to move eastward across the northern parts of the Canadian Prairie provinces today. An associated surface cold front will extend northeast to southwest from eastern ND into SD by late this afternoon. A substantial EML and related cap should inhibit convective development along this boundary for much of the day, even with substantial daytime heating and the presence of moderate to strong instability. Still, most guidance suggests that at least isolated thunderstorms may eventually form by late this afternoon into evening as glancing large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads the northern Plains. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear along and just behind the front should support supercell structures with associated hail/wind threat in any sustained convection. This isolated threat should peak generally in the 22-05Z time frame. But, there is still considerable uncertainty in how many robust thunderstorms will develop along/behind the length of the front and subsequently spread east-northeastward. Have therefore maintained a broad Marginal Risk with this update. ...Great Basin... In the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough, thunderstorm coverage and intensity is generally expected to be less compared to yesterday. Still, moderate instability should develop with daytime heating across parts of eastern NV into western/northwest UT. Scattered thunderstorms should once again form this afternoon across these areas. A well-mixed boundary layer and steepened low-level lapse rates should allow some of this activity to produce occasionally strong to severe wind gusts. A secondary round, and perhaps somewhat greater coverage of convection, may occur tonight across parts of Nevada into western/northern Utah, influenced by the eastward translation of a mid-level shortwave trough over northern California. ...Southwest... The mid-level anti-cyclone over northwest Mexico into the Southwest is forecast to continue slowly weakening through the period as upper ridging becomes more established over the Plains and Upper Midwest. Modest mid-level northerly flow will be maintained over parts of the Southwest, which may aid in convection moving off the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim, and mountains in southeast AZ. Morning visible satellite imagery and surface observations show generally clear conditions across these areas, which will foster robust daytime heating. Even so, confidence in robust thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong/severe gusts reaching the lower desert elevations is less compared to prior days, as mid-level flow should remain rather weak. ...Coastal Carolinas... Modest mid-level west-southwesterly flow will be present across the Carolinas today, on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern states. Daytime heating of a moist airmass will support moderate instability this afternoon. Deep-layer shear approaching 20-25 kt may foster occasionally organized updrafts, although poor lapse rates should generally hinder more robust cores from developing. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with any thunderstorms that can develop and approach the coast through early evening, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low wind probabilities. ..Gleason/Moore.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1126 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261630Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across parts of the northern Plains, Great Basin, and Southwest. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... An upper trough/low will continue to move eastward across the northern parts of the Canadian Prairie provinces today. An associated surface cold front will extend northeast to southwest from eastern ND into SD by late this afternoon. A substantial EML and related cap should inhibit convective development along this boundary for much of the day, even with substantial daytime heating and the presence of moderate to strong instability. Still, most guidance suggests that at least isolated thunderstorms may eventually form by late this afternoon into evening as glancing large-scale ascent associated with the upper trough/low overspreads the northern Plains. 30-40 kt of deep-layer shear along and just behind the front should support supercell structures with associated hail/wind threat in any sustained convection. This isolated threat should peak generally in the 22-05Z time frame. But, there is still considerable uncertainty in how many robust thunderstorms will develop along/behind the length of the front and subsequently spread east-northeastward. Have therefore maintained a broad Marginal Risk with this update. ...Great Basin... In the wake of a mid-level shortwave trough, thunderstorm coverage and intensity is generally expected to be less compared to yesterday. Still, moderate instability should develop with daytime heating across parts of eastern NV into western/northwest UT. Scattered thunderstorms should once again form this afternoon across these areas. A well-mixed boundary layer and steepened low-level lapse rates should allow some of this activity to produce occasionally strong to severe wind gusts. A secondary round, and perhaps somewhat greater coverage of convection, may occur tonight across parts of Nevada into western/northern Utah, influenced by the eastward translation of a mid-level shortwave trough over northern California. ...Southwest... The mid-level anti-cyclone over northwest Mexico into the Southwest is forecast to continue slowly weakening through the period as upper ridging becomes more established over the Plains and Upper Midwest. Modest mid-level northerly flow will be maintained over parts of the Southwest, which may aid in convection moving off the higher terrain of the Mogollon Rim, and mountains in southeast AZ. Morning visible satellite imagery and surface observations show generally clear conditions across these areas, which will foster robust daytime heating. Even so, confidence in robust thunderstorms capable of producing isolated strong/severe gusts reaching the lower desert elevations is less compared to prior days, as mid-level flow should remain rather weak. ...Coastal Carolinas... Modest mid-level west-southwesterly flow will be present across the Carolinas today, on the southern fringe of an upper trough over the eastern states. Daytime heating of a moist airmass will support moderate instability this afternoon. Deep-layer shear approaching 20-25 kt may foster occasionally organized updrafts, although poor lapse rates should generally hinder more robust cores from developing. While occasional strong/gusty winds may occur with any thunderstorms that can develop and approach the coast through early evening, the overall severe threat appears too isolated/marginal to include low wind probabilities. ..Gleason/Moore.. 07/26/2024 Read more

Reports of fall armyworms in hay fields across the Southeast in areas where dry weather dominated have been ramping up over the past seven to ten days, according to a University of Georgia State forage extension specialist. Such reports were also emerging in the Coastal Plains area of South Carolina, North Carolina and Alabama. Southeast AgNet (Gainesville, Fla.), July 26, 2024

Mandatory water conservation began in Lovettsville on July 25 as drought continued to worsen in the county. Middleburg and Round Hill both adopted mandatory conservation earlier in July. Loudoun Now (Leesburg, Va.), July 25, 2024

Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024 966 WTPZ42 KNHC 261433 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 800 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Bud has been devoid of any organized convection since about 03 UTC. The low-level circulation is exposed in latest GOES-18 satellite imagery. If the cyclone is unable to produce convection soon, it is in danger of degenerating to a post-tropical cyclone later today or tonight. Subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates range between 25-35 kt, the initial intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory, although that may be generous. Cooler waters and a drier, more stable airmass along Bud's track do not bode well for its future as a tropical cyclone. While some intermittent bursts of convection cannot be ruled out during the next day or so, the overall environment does not appear conducive for Bud to generate persistent organized convection going forward. The updated forecast shows Bud weakening into a post-tropical remnant low in 12 h, but this could occur even sooner if current trends continue. The initial motion is now 270/9 kt. Bud is being steered along the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and the system should move generally westward today. As we move into the weekend, Bud or its remnants should turn west-southwestward in the low-level trade wind flow. The NHC forecast track is fairly similar to the previous one, nudged slightly southward towards the HCCA and other consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 19.1N 119.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 19.2N 121.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 27/1200Z 19.0N 122.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 28/0000Z 18.6N 124.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/1200Z 18.2N 126.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kelly

Issued at 1500 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 814 WTPZ22 KNHC 261433 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 1500 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 119.6W AT 26/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 15SE 15SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 119.6W AT 26/1500Z AT 26/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 119.2W FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 19.2N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 19.0N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.6N 124.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 18.2N 126.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 119.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KELLY

...BUD STRUGGLING THIS MORNING... As of 8:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 the center of Bud was located near 19.1, -119.6 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2024 14:34:50 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2024 15:22:42 GMT

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across the northern Plains, Great Basin, and parts of the Southwest. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... A prominent upper-level trough will continue eastward today over the northern Canadian Prairies, with peripheral height falls and a strengthening of southwesterly winds aloft across the Dakotas and northern Minnesota. This will largely overlie an eastward-shifting front, that will be oriented northeast-southwestward across eastern North Dakota and roughly bisect South Dakota by late afternoon. Beneath a plume of very warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, which will continue to advect northeastward across the northern Great Plains through the day, a seasonably moist boundary layer will support a narrow corridor of strong buoyancy across the Red River Valley vicinity by late afternoon, where forcing for ascent should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development by early evening. In the presence of at least 30-40 kt deep-layer shear, a couple of supercells appear possible to the south of the international border, especially across northwest Minnesota, and perhaps as far southwest as areas near/west of Grand Forks and Fargo. Additional severe storms may also develop near/behind the front across western/central South Dakota and far eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska. ...Arizona... Cloud cover and outflows will abate across central/southern Arizona early today after a couple of relatively active thunderstorm days. This will be as the upper ridge over the Southwest further weakens and shifts southward. While thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase over the Rim this afternoon, and modestly stronger north-northeasterly steering flow may remain across far southeast Arizona, a less-active scenario seems likely as far as storms reaching the desert floor. While some strong/severe-caliber winds could occur, any such potential should remain relatively localized with a diminished overall severe risk from prior days. ...Great Basin... In the wake of a shortwave trough, storm coverage/intensity are not expected to be as active as Thursday, but moderate diurnal destabilization is expected especially across western/northern Utah, with isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm development expected this afternoon. A few of these storms could produce strong/severe-caliber downbursts. A secondary round, and perhaps somewhat greater coverage of storms, may occur tonight across Nevada into western/northern Utah, influenced by the eastward transition of the mid-level shortwave trough over northern California. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across the northern Plains, Great Basin, and parts of the Southwest. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... A prominent upper-level trough will continue eastward today over the northern Canadian Prairies, with peripheral height falls and a strengthening of southwesterly winds aloft across the Dakotas and northern Minnesota. This will largely overlie an eastward-shifting front, that will be oriented northeast-southwestward across eastern North Dakota and roughly bisect South Dakota by late afternoon. Beneath a plume of very warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, which will continue to advect northeastward across the northern Great Plains through the day, a seasonably moist boundary layer will support a narrow corridor of strong buoyancy across the Red River Valley vicinity by late afternoon, where forcing for ascent should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development by early evening. In the presence of at least 30-40 kt deep-layer shear, a couple of supercells appear possible to the south of the international border, especially across northwest Minnesota, and perhaps as far southwest as areas near/west of Grand Forks and Fargo. Additional severe storms may also develop near/behind the front across western/central South Dakota and far eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska. ...Arizona... Cloud cover and outflows will abate across central/southern Arizona early today after a couple of relatively active thunderstorm days. This will be as the upper ridge over the Southwest further weakens and shifts southward. While thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase over the Rim this afternoon, and modestly stronger north-northeasterly steering flow may remain across far southeast Arizona, a less-active scenario seems likely as far as storms reaching the desert floor. While some strong/severe-caliber winds could occur, any such potential should remain relatively localized with a diminished overall severe risk from prior days. ...Great Basin... In the wake of a shortwave trough, storm coverage/intensity are not expected to be as active as Thursday, but moderate diurnal destabilization is expected especially across western/northern Utah, with isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm development expected this afternoon. A few of these storms could produce strong/severe-caliber downbursts. A secondary round, and perhaps somewhat greater coverage of storms, may occur tonight across Nevada into western/northern Utah, influenced by the eastward transition of the mid-level shortwave trough over northern California. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across the northern Plains, Great Basin, and parts of the Southwest. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... A prominent upper-level trough will continue eastward today over the northern Canadian Prairies, with peripheral height falls and a strengthening of southwesterly winds aloft across the Dakotas and northern Minnesota. This will largely overlie an eastward-shifting front, that will be oriented northeast-southwestward across eastern North Dakota and roughly bisect South Dakota by late afternoon. Beneath a plume of very warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, which will continue to advect northeastward across the northern Great Plains through the day, a seasonably moist boundary layer will support a narrow corridor of strong buoyancy across the Red River Valley vicinity by late afternoon, where forcing for ascent should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development by early evening. In the presence of at least 30-40 kt deep-layer shear, a couple of supercells appear possible to the south of the international border, especially across northwest Minnesota, and perhaps as far southwest as areas near/west of Grand Forks and Fargo. Additional severe storms may also develop near/behind the front across western/central South Dakota and far eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska. ...Arizona... Cloud cover and outflows will abate across central/southern Arizona early today after a couple of relatively active thunderstorm days. This will be as the upper ridge over the Southwest further weakens and shifts southward. While thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase over the Rim this afternoon, and modestly stronger north-northeasterly steering flow may remain across far southeast Arizona, a less-active scenario seems likely as far as storms reaching the desert floor. While some strong/severe-caliber winds could occur, any such potential should remain relatively localized with a diminished overall severe risk from prior days. ...Great Basin... In the wake of a shortwave trough, storm coverage/intensity are not expected to be as active as Thursday, but moderate diurnal destabilization is expected especially across western/northern Utah, with isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm development expected this afternoon. A few of these storms could produce strong/severe-caliber downbursts. A secondary round, and perhaps somewhat greater coverage of storms, may occur tonight across Nevada into western/northern Utah, influenced by the eastward transition of the mid-level shortwave trough over northern California. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261300Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...GREAT BASIN...AND SOUTHWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may occur today across the northern Plains, Great Basin, and parts of the Southwest. ...Northern Plains/Upper Midwest... A prominent upper-level trough will continue eastward today over the northern Canadian Prairies, with peripheral height falls and a strengthening of southwesterly winds aloft across the Dakotas and northern Minnesota. This will largely overlie an eastward-shifting front, that will be oriented northeast-southwestward across eastern North Dakota and roughly bisect South Dakota by late afternoon. Beneath a plume of very warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, which will continue to advect northeastward across the northern Great Plains through the day, a seasonably moist boundary layer will support a narrow corridor of strong buoyancy across the Red River Valley vicinity by late afternoon, where forcing for ascent should support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development by early evening. In the presence of at least 30-40 kt deep-layer shear, a couple of supercells appear possible to the south of the international border, especially across northwest Minnesota, and perhaps as far southwest as areas near/west of Grand Forks and Fargo. Additional severe storms may also develop near/behind the front across western/central South Dakota and far eastern Wyoming into western Nebraska. ...Arizona... Cloud cover and outflows will abate across central/southern Arizona early today after a couple of relatively active thunderstorm days. This will be as the upper ridge over the Southwest further weakens and shifts southward. While thunderstorms are expected to develop/increase over the Rim this afternoon, and modestly stronger north-northeasterly steering flow may remain across far southeast Arizona, a less-active scenario seems likely as far as storms reaching the desert floor. While some strong/severe-caliber winds could occur, any such potential should remain relatively localized with a diminished overall severe risk from prior days. ...Great Basin... In the wake of a shortwave trough, storm coverage/intensity are not expected to be as active as Thursday, but moderate diurnal destabilization is expected especially across western/northern Utah, with isolated/widely scattered thunderstorm development expected this afternoon. A few of these storms could produce strong/severe-caliber downbursts. A secondary round, and perhaps somewhat greater coverage of storms, may occur tonight across Nevada into western/northern Utah, influenced by the eastward transition of the mid-level shortwave trough over northern California. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/26/2024 Read more

178
ABPZ20 KNHC 261116
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bud, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle of next week
a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
slow development is possible after that time as the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

MD 1711 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR UPPER TX COASTAL PLAIN
Mesoscale Discussion 1711 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0139 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Areas affected...Upper TX Coastal Plain Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 260639Z - 260845Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Potential exists for a brief tornado through about dawn with slow-moving, isolated thunderstorms over the Upper Texas Gulf Coastal Plain. The limited spatiotemporal extent and low probability of occurrence should preclude a watch issuance. DISCUSSION...Persistent low-level warm theta-e advection has supported scattered low-topped convection from the Mid to Upper TX Gulf Coast into southeast TX. One cell near the north end of Galveston Bay has recently deepened into a slow-moving thunderstorm, drifting northeast at 10 kts. HGX VWP has sampled 0-1 km shear around 20 kts with surface southeasterlies veering to the south at 1 km. The enhancement to hodograph curvature is nearly exclusively in the low-levels, with a nearly unidirectional southwesterly wind profile above 2 km. As such, transient supercell structure may occur. This would seemingly be most probable within this portion of the warm-advection regime given a relatively larger thermal gradient, inferred by surface temperatures in the low 80s over Galveston Island to low to mid 70s with northern extent in southeast TX. The concern in this scenario is if the transient supercell structure can briefly intensify to produce a tornado, although a downburst or two is also possible. With time, enhanced low-level flow should subside/shift northward, and likely curtail the threat after daybreak. See WPC MPD 0731 for information on the heavy rain/flash flooding potential. ..Grams/Guyer.. 07/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX... LAT...LON 30399509 30739474 30639410 30099403 29619426 29269482 29209534 30199520 30399509 Read more