Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... A shortwave impulse embedded in a broader West Coast trough will progress eastward from California into Nevada today, bringing dry and windy conditions to much of the southern Great Basin, and isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of the Northwest. ...Dry Thunder... A mix of dry and wet thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Northwest, into western Wyoming and northern Utah. Any dry thunderstorms will be capable of gusty outflow capable of contributing to wildfire spread with any new lightning ignitions. While dry thunderstorm coverage appears possible across a larger area than highlighted, modest wetting rainfall over the last 48 hours and current fuel guidance suggests that portions of northern Utah, northeastern Nevada, and southern Idaho will be less vulnerable to lightning-based ignitions and have been excluded from highlights. ...Dry and Windy... Southern Nevada into southwestern Utah will experience widespread critical meteorological conditions. However, current fuel guidance and previous wetting rainfall suggest fuels may not be receptive to wildfire spread. With the rate of fuel recovery also being uncertain, Critical highlights have been withheld. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central/northern Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low across Arkansas/eastern Oklahoma will start to fill and accelerate northeast as an open wave on Sunday. A low amplitude mid-level trough will remain centered across the western CONUS with several embedded mid-level impulses within moderate southwesterly flow from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. Farther east, a mid-level trough will become a cutoff low over the Gulf Stream and start to retrograde toward the New England coast late in the forecast period. Persistent southwesterly mid-level flow will result in lee troughing across the Plains and strengthening southerly surface flow. This will bring renewed Gulf moisture northward into the Upper Midwest and northern Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... A surface low will likely be located somewhere across western South Dakota on Sunday and will only drift slightly east through the day. East of this surface low, southerly winds will increase low-level moisture with dewpoints increasing to the upper 60s/near 70 by 00Z. By late afternoon, a warm front is forecast to become better defined across north-central South Dakota which, in addition to the cold front/dryline, should be a source for thunderstorm development as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region during the afternoon/evening. Moderate flow associated with this mid-level shortwave trough should result in 35 to 40 knots of effective shear by late afternoon which would be sufficient for supercells. Moderate instability and moderate shear will support a large hail threat, while inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will also support a severe wind threat. The low-level jet axis is mostly southeast of the greatest upper-level support and thus, upscale growth into an MCS remains uncertain. However, storm coverage may be great enough for upscale growth into one or more MCSs which could maintain some severe weather threat into the overnight hours across southern Minnesota and western Iowa where the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen to 35 to 45 knots Sunday night. A Slight Risk has been introduced across South Dakota, in proximity to the mid-level shortwave trough, where greater storm coverage appears likely. Elsewhere, northeast to the Canadian border and farther south across Nebraska and northern Kansas, storm coverage remains more questionable, which precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central/northern Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low across Arkansas/eastern Oklahoma will start to fill and accelerate northeast as an open wave on Sunday. A low amplitude mid-level trough will remain centered across the western CONUS with several embedded mid-level impulses within moderate southwesterly flow from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. Farther east, a mid-level trough will become a cutoff low over the Gulf Stream and start to retrograde toward the New England coast late in the forecast period. Persistent southwesterly mid-level flow will result in lee troughing across the Plains and strengthening southerly surface flow. This will bring renewed Gulf moisture northward into the Upper Midwest and northern Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... A surface low will likely be located somewhere across western South Dakota on Sunday and will only drift slightly east through the day. East of this surface low, southerly winds will increase low-level moisture with dewpoints increasing to the upper 60s/near 70 by 00Z. By late afternoon, a warm front is forecast to become better defined across north-central South Dakota which, in addition to the cold front/dryline, should be a source for thunderstorm development as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region during the afternoon/evening. Moderate flow associated with this mid-level shortwave trough should result in 35 to 40 knots of effective shear by late afternoon which would be sufficient for supercells. Moderate instability and moderate shear will support a large hail threat, while inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will also support a severe wind threat. The low-level jet axis is mostly southeast of the greatest upper-level support and thus, upscale growth into an MCS remains uncertain. However, storm coverage may be great enough for upscale growth into one or more MCSs which could maintain some severe weather threat into the overnight hours across southern Minnesota and western Iowa where the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen to 35 to 45 knots Sunday night. A Slight Risk has been introduced across South Dakota, in proximity to the mid-level shortwave trough, where greater storm coverage appears likely. Elsewhere, northeast to the Canadian border and farther south across Nebraska and northern Kansas, storm coverage remains more questionable, which precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central/northern Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low across Arkansas/eastern Oklahoma will start to fill and accelerate northeast as an open wave on Sunday. A low amplitude mid-level trough will remain centered across the western CONUS with several embedded mid-level impulses within moderate southwesterly flow from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. Farther east, a mid-level trough will become a cutoff low over the Gulf Stream and start to retrograde toward the New England coast late in the forecast period. Persistent southwesterly mid-level flow will result in lee troughing across the Plains and strengthening southerly surface flow. This will bring renewed Gulf moisture northward into the Upper Midwest and northern Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... A surface low will likely be located somewhere across western South Dakota on Sunday and will only drift slightly east through the day. East of this surface low, southerly winds will increase low-level moisture with dewpoints increasing to the upper 60s/near 70 by 00Z. By late afternoon, a warm front is forecast to become better defined across north-central South Dakota which, in addition to the cold front/dryline, should be a source for thunderstorm development as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region during the afternoon/evening. Moderate flow associated with this mid-level shortwave trough should result in 35 to 40 knots of effective shear by late afternoon which would be sufficient for supercells. Moderate instability and moderate shear will support a large hail threat, while inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will also support a severe wind threat. The low-level jet axis is mostly southeast of the greatest upper-level support and thus, upscale growth into an MCS remains uncertain. However, storm coverage may be great enough for upscale growth into one or more MCSs which could maintain some severe weather threat into the overnight hours across southern Minnesota and western Iowa where the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen to 35 to 45 knots Sunday night. A Slight Risk has been introduced across South Dakota, in proximity to the mid-level shortwave trough, where greater storm coverage appears likely. Elsewhere, northeast to the Canadian border and farther south across Nebraska and northern Kansas, storm coverage remains more questionable, which precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central/northern Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low across Arkansas/eastern Oklahoma will start to fill and accelerate northeast as an open wave on Sunday. A low amplitude mid-level trough will remain centered across the western CONUS with several embedded mid-level impulses within moderate southwesterly flow from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. Farther east, a mid-level trough will become a cutoff low over the Gulf Stream and start to retrograde toward the New England coast late in the forecast period. Persistent southwesterly mid-level flow will result in lee troughing across the Plains and strengthening southerly surface flow. This will bring renewed Gulf moisture northward into the Upper Midwest and northern Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... A surface low will likely be located somewhere across western South Dakota on Sunday and will only drift slightly east through the day. East of this surface low, southerly winds will increase low-level moisture with dewpoints increasing to the upper 60s/near 70 by 00Z. By late afternoon, a warm front is forecast to become better defined across north-central South Dakota which, in addition to the cold front/dryline, should be a source for thunderstorm development as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region during the afternoon/evening. Moderate flow associated with this mid-level shortwave trough should result in 35 to 40 knots of effective shear by late afternoon which would be sufficient for supercells. Moderate instability and moderate shear will support a large hail threat, while inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will also support a severe wind threat. The low-level jet axis is mostly southeast of the greatest upper-level support and thus, upscale growth into an MCS remains uncertain. However, storm coverage may be great enough for upscale growth into one or more MCSs which could maintain some severe weather threat into the overnight hours across southern Minnesota and western Iowa where the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen to 35 to 45 knots Sunday night. A Slight Risk has been introduced across South Dakota, in proximity to the mid-level shortwave trough, where greater storm coverage appears likely. Elsewhere, northeast to the Canadian border and farther south across Nebraska and northern Kansas, storm coverage remains more questionable, which precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected across portions of the central/northern Plains on Sunday. ...Synopsis... An upper-level low across Arkansas/eastern Oklahoma will start to fill and accelerate northeast as an open wave on Sunday. A low amplitude mid-level trough will remain centered across the western CONUS with several embedded mid-level impulses within moderate southwesterly flow from the Great Basin to the northern Plains. Farther east, a mid-level trough will become a cutoff low over the Gulf Stream and start to retrograde toward the New England coast late in the forecast period. Persistent southwesterly mid-level flow will result in lee troughing across the Plains and strengthening southerly surface flow. This will bring renewed Gulf moisture northward into the Upper Midwest and northern Plains. ...Central/Northern Plains... A surface low will likely be located somewhere across western South Dakota on Sunday and will only drift slightly east through the day. East of this surface low, southerly winds will increase low-level moisture with dewpoints increasing to the upper 60s/near 70 by 00Z. By late afternoon, a warm front is forecast to become better defined across north-central South Dakota which, in addition to the cold front/dryline, should be a source for thunderstorm development as a mid-level shortwave trough approaches the region during the afternoon/evening. Moderate flow associated with this mid-level shortwave trough should result in 35 to 40 knots of effective shear by late afternoon which would be sufficient for supercells. Moderate instability and moderate shear will support a large hail threat, while inverted-v thermodynamic profiles will also support a severe wind threat. The low-level jet axis is mostly southeast of the greatest upper-level support and thus, upscale growth into an MCS remains uncertain. However, storm coverage may be great enough for upscale growth into one or more MCSs which could maintain some severe weather threat into the overnight hours across southern Minnesota and western Iowa where the low-level jet is forecast to strengthen to 35 to 45 knots Sunday night. A Slight Risk has been introduced across South Dakota, in proximity to the mid-level shortwave trough, where greater storm coverage appears likely. Elsewhere, northeast to the Canadian border and farther south across Nebraska and northern Kansas, storm coverage remains more questionable, which precludes higher probabilities at this time. ..Bentley.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An occluded deep-layer cyclone will move eastward across parts of northern SK/AB today, as a larger scale upper-level trough will remain in place across much of the western CONUS into the northern Plains. Multiple embedded shortwaves within this trough will move across parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies/Plains through the period. A surface trough will extend southward from the occluded low into the northern High Plains, with secondary low development possible across western SD. ...Dakotas into northern MN... Elevated convection will likely linger into this morning across parts of northern MN, and also potentially across parts of the Dakotas. A convectively enhanced shortwave trough related to the Dakotas convection will move northeastward through the day. Some CAM guidance depicts robust storm redevelopment across northern MN by early/mid afternoon with a moist and increasingly unstable environment, as this shortwave interacts with modifying outflow. Should this development occur, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection. While this scenario remains uncertain, a couple of supercells and/or stronger clusters could develop, with a threat of hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado. The Slight Risk has been expanded eastward to cover this possible scenario, and additional eastward expansion is possible if confidence increases. Farther west, there will be some potential for storm development near the surface trough/weak cold front across west-central ND and potentially into western SD during the late afternoon and evening, though guidance continues to vary regarding storm coverage within this regime. Steep low/midlevel lapse rates, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts, which could spread into parts of the eastern Dakotas during the evening. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains, as one embedded shortwave trough moves across WY into the central/northern High Plains, and another shortwave moves from CA into northern NV and southern ID. Multiple outflow-driven clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat of at least isolated severe gusts. Somewhat stronger instability across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY into western NE could also support some hail potential with the strongest storms. ..Dean/Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An occluded deep-layer cyclone will move eastward across parts of northern SK/AB today, as a larger scale upper-level trough will remain in place across much of the western CONUS into the northern Plains. Multiple embedded shortwaves within this trough will move across parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies/Plains through the period. A surface trough will extend southward from the occluded low into the northern High Plains, with secondary low development possible across western SD. ...Dakotas into northern MN... Elevated convection will likely linger into this morning across parts of northern MN, and also potentially across parts of the Dakotas. A convectively enhanced shortwave trough related to the Dakotas convection will move northeastward through the day. Some CAM guidance depicts robust storm redevelopment across northern MN by early/mid afternoon with a moist and increasingly unstable environment, as this shortwave interacts with modifying outflow. Should this development occur, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection. While this scenario remains uncertain, a couple of supercells and/or stronger clusters could develop, with a threat of hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado. The Slight Risk has been expanded eastward to cover this possible scenario, and additional eastward expansion is possible if confidence increases. Farther west, there will be some potential for storm development near the surface trough/weak cold front across west-central ND and potentially into western SD during the late afternoon and evening, though guidance continues to vary regarding storm coverage within this regime. Steep low/midlevel lapse rates, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts, which could spread into parts of the eastern Dakotas during the evening. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains, as one embedded shortwave trough moves across WY into the central/northern High Plains, and another shortwave moves from CA into northern NV and southern ID. Multiple outflow-driven clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat of at least isolated severe gusts. Somewhat stronger instability across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY into western NE could also support some hail potential with the strongest storms. ..Dean/Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An occluded deep-layer cyclone will move eastward across parts of northern SK/AB today, as a larger scale upper-level trough will remain in place across much of the western CONUS into the northern Plains. Multiple embedded shortwaves within this trough will move across parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies/Plains through the period. A surface trough will extend southward from the occluded low into the northern High Plains, with secondary low development possible across western SD. ...Dakotas into northern MN... Elevated convection will likely linger into this morning across parts of northern MN, and also potentially across parts of the Dakotas. A convectively enhanced shortwave trough related to the Dakotas convection will move northeastward through the day. Some CAM guidance depicts robust storm redevelopment across northern MN by early/mid afternoon with a moist and increasingly unstable environment, as this shortwave interacts with modifying outflow. Should this development occur, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection. While this scenario remains uncertain, a couple of supercells and/or stronger clusters could develop, with a threat of hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado. The Slight Risk has been expanded eastward to cover this possible scenario, and additional eastward expansion is possible if confidence increases. Farther west, there will be some potential for storm development near the surface trough/weak cold front across west-central ND and potentially into western SD during the late afternoon and evening, though guidance continues to vary regarding storm coverage within this regime. Steep low/midlevel lapse rates, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts, which could spread into parts of the eastern Dakotas during the evening. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains, as one embedded shortwave trough moves across WY into the central/northern High Plains, and another shortwave moves from CA into northern NV and southern ID. Multiple outflow-driven clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat of at least isolated severe gusts. Somewhat stronger instability across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY into western NE could also support some hail potential with the strongest storms. ..Dean/Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An occluded deep-layer cyclone will move eastward across parts of northern SK/AB today, as a larger scale upper-level trough will remain in place across much of the western CONUS into the northern Plains. Multiple embedded shortwaves within this trough will move across parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies/Plains through the period. A surface trough will extend southward from the occluded low into the northern High Plains, with secondary low development possible across western SD. ...Dakotas into northern MN... Elevated convection will likely linger into this morning across parts of northern MN, and also potentially across parts of the Dakotas. A convectively enhanced shortwave trough related to the Dakotas convection will move northeastward through the day. Some CAM guidance depicts robust storm redevelopment across northern MN by early/mid afternoon with a moist and increasingly unstable environment, as this shortwave interacts with modifying outflow. Should this development occur, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection. While this scenario remains uncertain, a couple of supercells and/or stronger clusters could develop, with a threat of hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado. The Slight Risk has been expanded eastward to cover this possible scenario, and additional eastward expansion is possible if confidence increases. Farther west, there will be some potential for storm development near the surface trough/weak cold front across west-central ND and potentially into western SD during the late afternoon and evening, though guidance continues to vary regarding storm coverage within this regime. Steep low/midlevel lapse rates, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts, which could spread into parts of the eastern Dakotas during the evening. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains, as one embedded shortwave trough moves across WY into the central/northern High Plains, and another shortwave moves from CA into northern NV and southern ID. Multiple outflow-driven clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat of at least isolated severe gusts. Somewhat stronger instability across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY into western NE could also support some hail potential with the strongest storms. ..Dean/Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An occluded deep-layer cyclone will move eastward across parts of northern SK/AB today, as a larger scale upper-level trough will remain in place across much of the western CONUS into the northern Plains. Multiple embedded shortwaves within this trough will move across parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies/Plains through the period. A surface trough will extend southward from the occluded low into the northern High Plains, with secondary low development possible across western SD. ...Dakotas into northern MN... Elevated convection will likely linger into this morning across parts of northern MN, and also potentially across parts of the Dakotas. A convectively enhanced shortwave trough related to the Dakotas convection will move northeastward through the day. Some CAM guidance depicts robust storm redevelopment across northern MN by early/mid afternoon with a moist and increasingly unstable environment, as this shortwave interacts with modifying outflow. Should this development occur, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection. While this scenario remains uncertain, a couple of supercells and/or stronger clusters could develop, with a threat of hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado. The Slight Risk has been expanded eastward to cover this possible scenario, and additional eastward expansion is possible if confidence increases. Farther west, there will be some potential for storm development near the surface trough/weak cold front across west-central ND and potentially into western SD during the late afternoon and evening, though guidance continues to vary regarding storm coverage within this regime. Steep low/midlevel lapse rates, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts, which could spread into parts of the eastern Dakotas during the evening. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains, as one embedded shortwave trough moves across WY into the central/northern High Plains, and another shortwave moves from CA into northern NV and southern ID. Multiple outflow-driven clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat of at least isolated severe gusts. Somewhat stronger instability across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY into western NE could also support some hail potential with the strongest storms. ..Dean/Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0100 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the northern Plains vicinity, mainly this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... An occluded deep-layer cyclone will move eastward across parts of northern SK/AB today, as a larger scale upper-level trough will remain in place across much of the western CONUS into the northern Plains. Multiple embedded shortwaves within this trough will move across parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies/Plains through the period. A surface trough will extend southward from the occluded low into the northern High Plains, with secondary low development possible across western SD. ...Dakotas into northern MN... Elevated convection will likely linger into this morning across parts of northern MN, and also potentially across parts of the Dakotas. A convectively enhanced shortwave trough related to the Dakotas convection will move northeastward through the day. Some CAM guidance depicts robust storm redevelopment across northern MN by early/mid afternoon with a moist and increasingly unstable environment, as this shortwave interacts with modifying outflow. Should this development occur, deep-layer shear will be sufficient for organized convection. While this scenario remains uncertain, a couple of supercells and/or stronger clusters could develop, with a threat of hail, damaging gusts, and perhaps a tornado. The Slight Risk has been expanded eastward to cover this possible scenario, and additional eastward expansion is possible if confidence increases. Farther west, there will be some potential for storm development near the surface trough/weak cold front across west-central ND and potentially into western SD during the late afternoon and evening, though guidance continues to vary regarding storm coverage within this regime. Steep low/midlevel lapse rates, moderate to strong buoyancy, and sufficient deep-layer shear will support a threat of hail and strong to severe gusts, which could spread into parts of the eastern Dakotas during the evening. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains vicinity... Scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening from the northern Great Basin into the central Rockies/High Plains, as one embedded shortwave trough moves across WY into the central/northern High Plains, and another shortwave moves from CA into northern NV and southern ID. Multiple outflow-driven clusters could evolve with time, posing a threat of at least isolated severe gusts. Somewhat stronger instability across parts of northeast CO/southeast WY into western NE could also support some hail potential with the strongest storms. ..Dean/Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270508
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form by the middle of next
week a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle
or latter part of next week. This system is forecast to move
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Western East Pacific:
Another area of low pressure could form by the middle of next week
well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible during
the middle and latter parts of next week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MN...NORTHEAST NV INTO WESTERN UT...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AZ... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of the Dakotas into northwest Minnesota, Great Basin, and Arizona. ...Northern High Plains into eastern ND and northwest MN... A few strong storms have developed from eastern ND into northwest MN, in the vicinity of a weak cold front. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt could support a supercell or two through the evening, with a threat of hail, isolated damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado. See MCD 1714 for more information. Farther southwest, high-based convection is ongoing across parts of the northern High Plains, which could pose a threat of isolated strong to severe gusts through the evening. Elevated convection may increase later tonight and spread northeastward along/north of the cold front from northern SD into eastern ND and northwest MN, which could pose a threat of gusty winds and some hail. ...Central into southeast AZ... Occasional strong storms have been noted from central into southeast AZ through the afternoon, mainly in closer proximity to the higher terrain. Multiple areas of outflow are spreading southward, though with rather strong MLCINH in place, potential for substantial development into the lower elevations is uncertain. Some threat for strong to isolated severe gusts cannot be ruled out through the evening, though confidence is low. ...Great Basin... Isolated strong storms remain possible this evening across parts of west-central/northwest UT. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and effective shear around 30 kt were noted on the 00Z SLC sounding, and briefly organized storms could pose a threat of isolated strong/severe gusts and small to near-severe hail. Another round of convection is possible later tonight from northeast NV into western UT, in advance of an approaching shortwave trough. A residual well-mixed boundary layer could support locally gusty winds with this later convection. ..Dean.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 270100Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHWEST MN...NORTHEAST NV INTO WESTERN UT...SOUTH-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AZ... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms remain possible this evening across parts of the Dakotas into northwest Minnesota, Great Basin, and Arizona. ...Northern High Plains into eastern ND and northwest MN... A few strong storms have developed from eastern ND into northwest MN, in the vicinity of a weak cold front. MLCAPE of 2000-3000 J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt could support a supercell or two through the evening, with a threat of hail, isolated damaging gusts, and possibly a tornado. See MCD 1714 for more information. Farther southwest, high-based convection is ongoing across parts of the northern High Plains, which could pose a threat of isolated strong to severe gusts through the evening. Elevated convection may increase later tonight and spread northeastward along/north of the cold front from northern SD into eastern ND and northwest MN, which could pose a threat of gusty winds and some hail. ...Central into southeast AZ... Occasional strong storms have been noted from central into southeast AZ through the afternoon, mainly in closer proximity to the higher terrain. Multiple areas of outflow are spreading southward, though with rather strong MLCINH in place, potential for substantial development into the lower elevations is uncertain. Some threat for strong to isolated severe gusts cannot be ruled out through the evening, though confidence is low. ...Great Basin... Isolated strong storms remain possible this evening across parts of west-central/northwest UT. MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and effective shear around 30 kt were noted on the 00Z SLC sounding, and briefly organized storms could pose a threat of isolated strong/severe gusts and small to near-severe hail. Another round of convection is possible later tonight from northeast NV into western UT, in advance of an approaching shortwave trough. A residual well-mixed boundary layer could support locally gusty winds with this later convection. ..Dean.. 07/27/2024 Read more