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Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude upper-level ridge will be centered over the central CONUS on Monday and is forecast to slowly amplify through the week. As this occurs, northwest flow will strengthen from the northern Plains to the western Great Lakes and Midwest with high quality moisture in place. Severe weather may be possible during this period (most likely D5/Tue to D7/Thu). Most guidance shows convective precipitation signals and likely MCSs each afternoon, but based on the timing and amplitude of shortwave trough passages within the northwesterly flow, the uncertainty in location remains too high at this time to introduce probabilities. Farther east, an unusual progression of the upper-air pattern appears increasingly likely with a developing upper low over the Gulf Stream retrograding into New England on Monday and Tuesday. This general progression has been supported by the last several runs of the GFS and ECMWF and an even farther west shift occurred with the 00z ECMWF and EC ensemble which would bring an even larger warm sector onshore. This will need to monitored for the potential for at least some severe weather activity. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude upper-level ridge will be centered over the central CONUS on Monday and is forecast to slowly amplify through the week. As this occurs, northwest flow will strengthen from the northern Plains to the western Great Lakes and Midwest with high quality moisture in place. Severe weather may be possible during this period (most likely D5/Tue to D7/Thu). Most guidance shows convective precipitation signals and likely MCSs each afternoon, but based on the timing and amplitude of shortwave trough passages within the northwesterly flow, the uncertainty in location remains too high at this time to introduce probabilities. Farther east, an unusual progression of the upper-air pattern appears increasingly likely with a developing upper low over the Gulf Stream retrograding into New England on Monday and Tuesday. This general progression has been supported by the last several runs of the GFS and ECMWF and an even farther west shift occurred with the 00z ECMWF and EC ensemble which would bring an even larger warm sector onshore. This will need to monitored for the potential for at least some severe weather activity. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude upper-level ridge will be centered over the central CONUS on Monday and is forecast to slowly amplify through the week. As this occurs, northwest flow will strengthen from the northern Plains to the western Great Lakes and Midwest with high quality moisture in place. Severe weather may be possible during this period (most likely D5/Tue to D7/Thu). Most guidance shows convective precipitation signals and likely MCSs each afternoon, but based on the timing and amplitude of shortwave trough passages within the northwesterly flow, the uncertainty in location remains too high at this time to introduce probabilities. Farther east, an unusual progression of the upper-air pattern appears increasingly likely with a developing upper low over the Gulf Stream retrograding into New England on Monday and Tuesday. This general progression has been supported by the last several runs of the GFS and ECMWF and an even farther west shift occurred with the 00z ECMWF and EC ensemble which would bring an even larger warm sector onshore. This will need to monitored for the potential for at least some severe weather activity. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude upper-level ridge will be centered over the central CONUS on Monday and is forecast to slowly amplify through the week. As this occurs, northwest flow will strengthen from the northern Plains to the western Great Lakes and Midwest with high quality moisture in place. Severe weather may be possible during this period (most likely D5/Tue to D7/Thu). Most guidance shows convective precipitation signals and likely MCSs each afternoon, but based on the timing and amplitude of shortwave trough passages within the northwesterly flow, the uncertainty in location remains too high at this time to introduce probabilities. Farther east, an unusual progression of the upper-air pattern appears increasingly likely with a developing upper low over the Gulf Stream retrograding into New England on Monday and Tuesday. This general progression has been supported by the last several runs of the GFS and ECMWF and an even farther west shift occurred with the 00z ECMWF and EC ensemble which would bring an even larger warm sector onshore. This will need to monitored for the potential for at least some severe weather activity. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude upper-level ridge will be centered over the central CONUS on Monday and is forecast to slowly amplify through the week. As this occurs, northwest flow will strengthen from the northern Plains to the western Great Lakes and Midwest with high quality moisture in place. Severe weather may be possible during this period (most likely D5/Tue to D7/Thu). Most guidance shows convective precipitation signals and likely MCSs each afternoon, but based on the timing and amplitude of shortwave trough passages within the northwesterly flow, the uncertainty in location remains too high at this time to introduce probabilities. Farther east, an unusual progression of the upper-air pattern appears increasingly likely with a developing upper low over the Gulf Stream retrograding into New England on Monday and Tuesday. This general progression has been supported by the last several runs of the GFS and ECMWF and an even farther west shift occurred with the 00z ECMWF and EC ensemble which would bring an even larger warm sector onshore. This will need to monitored for the potential for at least some severe weather activity. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 291200Z - 031200Z ...DISCUSSION... A low-amplitude upper-level ridge will be centered over the central CONUS on Monday and is forecast to slowly amplify through the week. As this occurs, northwest flow will strengthen from the northern Plains to the western Great Lakes and Midwest with high quality moisture in place. Severe weather may be possible during this period (most likely D5/Tue to D7/Thu). Most guidance shows convective precipitation signals and likely MCSs each afternoon, but based on the timing and amplitude of shortwave trough passages within the northwesterly flow, the uncertainty in location remains too high at this time to introduce probabilities. Farther east, an unusual progression of the upper-air pattern appears increasingly likely with a developing upper low over the Gulf Stream retrograding into New England on Monday and Tuesday. This general progression has been supported by the last several runs of the GFS and ECMWF and an even farther west shift occurred with the 00z ECMWF and EC ensemble which would bring an even larger warm sector onshore. This will need to monitored for the potential for at least some severe weather activity. Read more

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2024 08:37:34 GMT


Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 26 Jul 2024 09:22:43 GMT

Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024 000 WTPZ42 KNHC 260836 TCDEP2 Tropical Storm Bud Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Bud is currently only generating isolated patches of deep convection to the south and southwest of the center. The various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates have continued to decrease and are now in the 30-40 kt range. Using these data, the initial intensity is lowered to a somewhat uncertain 35 kt. The initial motion is now 285/9 kt. Bud is on the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge, and this feature should steer the cyclone generally westward today. After that, Bud or its remnants should turn west-southwestward in the low-level trade wind flow. The guidance again has nudged to the north of the previous guidance, and the new forecast track is thus also nudged northward. While it is possible there could be one more convective flare-up this morning, all of the guidance indicates that Bud should continue to weaken due to moving over cooler sea surface temperatures and into a more stable air mass. Based on this, the new intensity forecast calls for Bud to weaken to a depression later today and degenerate to a remnant low pressure area by 24 h. The remnant low is forecast to dissipated between 60-72 h based on the global model guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/0900Z 18.8N 118.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 26/1800Z 18.9N 120.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 27/0600Z 18.9N 122.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/1800Z 18.7N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 28/0600Z 18.4N 125.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 28/1800Z 18.0N 126.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 184 FOPZ12 KNHC 260835 PWSEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 0900 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BUD WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 118.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 120W 34 2 X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024 000 WTPZ32 KNHC 260835 TCPEP2 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bud Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022024 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024 ...BUD CONTINUING TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 118.9W ABOUT 645 MI...1040 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bud was located near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 118.9 West. Bud is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through today. A slower west-southwestward motion is forecast this weekend. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is expected, and Bud is expected to become a remnant low Friday night or Saturday and dissipate by Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Beven

...BUD CONTINUING TO WEAKEN... As of 2:00 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 the center of Bud was located near 18.8, -118.9 with movement WNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1005 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Issued at 0900 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 000 WTPZ22 KNHC 260835 TCMEP2 TROPICAL STORM BUD FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022024 0900 UTC FRI JUL 26 2024 TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.9W AT 26/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 118.9W AT 26/0900Z AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 118.4W FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 18.9N 120.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 18.9N 122.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.7N 123.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 18.4N 125.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 18.0N 126.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 118.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BEVEN

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central/northern Plains and the Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... As mid-level flow strengthens across the central Rockies on Sunday, lee cyclogenesis is expected to intensify during the day. This will result in strengthening southerly flow and moisture advection across the central Plains ahead of the surface low and cold front. Thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening hours along and ahead of the surface front from northern Kansas to northwest South Dakota. Shear should remain somewhat weak during the day with only around 20 to 25 knots of mid-level flow emerging over the Plains. Therefore, storms will likely remain somewhat loosely organized with marginal severe weather threat in a moderately unstable environment. The GFS, ECMWF, and NAM all show some version of a mid-level shortwave trough amplifying somewhat across the Plains Sunday evening and into the overnight hours with some differences in timing/amplitude. The arrival of this shortwave trough will result in strengthening deep-layer shear and a low-level jet response which should aid in storm development and intensity after sunset. The most likely period for a greater severe weather threat will be in this time period, likely across southeast South Dakota and eastern Nebraska when shear and instability will be maximized. Higher probabilities may need to be added in this region in later outlooks as timing and location of the overnight shortwave trough becomes more clear. ..Bentley.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central/northern Plains and the Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... As mid-level flow strengthens across the central Rockies on Sunday, lee cyclogenesis is expected to intensify during the day. This will result in strengthening southerly flow and moisture advection across the central Plains ahead of the surface low and cold front. Thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening hours along and ahead of the surface front from northern Kansas to northwest South Dakota. Shear should remain somewhat weak during the day with only around 20 to 25 knots of mid-level flow emerging over the Plains. Therefore, storms will likely remain somewhat loosely organized with marginal severe weather threat in a moderately unstable environment. The GFS, ECMWF, and NAM all show some version of a mid-level shortwave trough amplifying somewhat across the Plains Sunday evening and into the overnight hours with some differences in timing/amplitude. The arrival of this shortwave trough will result in strengthening deep-layer shear and a low-level jet response which should aid in storm development and intensity after sunset. The most likely period for a greater severe weather threat will be in this time period, likely across southeast South Dakota and eastern Nebraska when shear and instability will be maximized. Higher probabilities may need to be added in this region in later outlooks as timing and location of the overnight shortwave trough becomes more clear. ..Bentley.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central/northern Plains and the Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... As mid-level flow strengthens across the central Rockies on Sunday, lee cyclogenesis is expected to intensify during the day. This will result in strengthening southerly flow and moisture advection across the central Plains ahead of the surface low and cold front. Thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening hours along and ahead of the surface front from northern Kansas to northwest South Dakota. Shear should remain somewhat weak during the day with only around 20 to 25 knots of mid-level flow emerging over the Plains. Therefore, storms will likely remain somewhat loosely organized with marginal severe weather threat in a moderately unstable environment. The GFS, ECMWF, and NAM all show some version of a mid-level shortwave trough amplifying somewhat across the Plains Sunday evening and into the overnight hours with some differences in timing/amplitude. The arrival of this shortwave trough will result in strengthening deep-layer shear and a low-level jet response which should aid in storm development and intensity after sunset. The most likely period for a greater severe weather threat will be in this time period, likely across southeast South Dakota and eastern Nebraska when shear and instability will be maximized. Higher probabilities may need to be added in this region in later outlooks as timing and location of the overnight shortwave trough becomes more clear. ..Bentley.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central/northern Plains and the Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... As mid-level flow strengthens across the central Rockies on Sunday, lee cyclogenesis is expected to intensify during the day. This will result in strengthening southerly flow and moisture advection across the central Plains ahead of the surface low and cold front. Thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening hours along and ahead of the surface front from northern Kansas to northwest South Dakota. Shear should remain somewhat weak during the day with only around 20 to 25 knots of mid-level flow emerging over the Plains. Therefore, storms will likely remain somewhat loosely organized with marginal severe weather threat in a moderately unstable environment. The GFS, ECMWF, and NAM all show some version of a mid-level shortwave trough amplifying somewhat across the Plains Sunday evening and into the overnight hours with some differences in timing/amplitude. The arrival of this shortwave trough will result in strengthening deep-layer shear and a low-level jet response which should aid in storm development and intensity after sunset. The most likely period for a greater severe weather threat will be in this time period, likely across southeast South Dakota and eastern Nebraska when shear and instability will be maximized. Higher probabilities may need to be added in this region in later outlooks as timing and location of the overnight shortwave trough becomes more clear. ..Bentley.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central/northern Plains and the Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... As mid-level flow strengthens across the central Rockies on Sunday, lee cyclogenesis is expected to intensify during the day. This will result in strengthening southerly flow and moisture advection across the central Plains ahead of the surface low and cold front. Thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening hours along and ahead of the surface front from northern Kansas to northwest South Dakota. Shear should remain somewhat weak during the day with only around 20 to 25 knots of mid-level flow emerging over the Plains. Therefore, storms will likely remain somewhat loosely organized with marginal severe weather threat in a moderately unstable environment. The GFS, ECMWF, and NAM all show some version of a mid-level shortwave trough amplifying somewhat across the Plains Sunday evening and into the overnight hours with some differences in timing/amplitude. The arrival of this shortwave trough will result in strengthening deep-layer shear and a low-level jet response which should aid in storm development and intensity after sunset. The most likely period for a greater severe weather threat will be in this time period, likely across southeast South Dakota and eastern Nebraska when shear and instability will be maximized. Higher probabilities may need to be added in this region in later outlooks as timing and location of the overnight shortwave trough becomes more clear. ..Bentley.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0212 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the central/northern Plains and the Upper Midwest. ...Synopsis... As mid-level flow strengthens across the central Rockies on Sunday, lee cyclogenesis is expected to intensify during the day. This will result in strengthening southerly flow and moisture advection across the central Plains ahead of the surface low and cold front. Thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon and evening hours along and ahead of the surface front from northern Kansas to northwest South Dakota. Shear should remain somewhat weak during the day with only around 20 to 25 knots of mid-level flow emerging over the Plains. Therefore, storms will likely remain somewhat loosely organized with marginal severe weather threat in a moderately unstable environment. The GFS, ECMWF, and NAM all show some version of a mid-level shortwave trough amplifying somewhat across the Plains Sunday evening and into the overnight hours with some differences in timing/amplitude. The arrival of this shortwave trough will result in strengthening deep-layer shear and a low-level jet response which should aid in storm development and intensity after sunset. The most likely period for a greater severe weather threat will be in this time period, likely across southeast South Dakota and eastern Nebraska when shear and instability will be maximized. Higher probabilities may need to be added in this region in later outlooks as timing and location of the overnight shortwave trough becomes more clear. ..Bentley.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough progresses eastward from California into the northern Great Basin on Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of eastern Idaho, southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and portions of far northern Utah. This trough is also expected to bring dry and windy conditions to much of southern Nevada into southwestern Utah. ...Dry Thunder... An approaching trough from California is expected to bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Utah. Recent wetting rainfall could potentially limit some lightning ignitions, but pockets of receptive fuels still remain across much of the highlight area. Dry boundary-layer profiles will support gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. ...Southern Great Basin... Relative humidity of 5-10% and wind speeds of 25-30 MPH are expected across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah, exceeding the meteorological criteria for critical conditions. However, there is uncertainty in the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread due to recent significant wetting rainfall, precluding the inclusion of critical highlights at this time. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough progresses eastward from California into the northern Great Basin on Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of eastern Idaho, southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and portions of far northern Utah. This trough is also expected to bring dry and windy conditions to much of southern Nevada into southwestern Utah. ...Dry Thunder... An approaching trough from California is expected to bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Utah. Recent wetting rainfall could potentially limit some lightning ignitions, but pockets of receptive fuels still remain across much of the highlight area. Dry boundary-layer profiles will support gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. ...Southern Great Basin... Relative humidity of 5-10% and wind speeds of 25-30 MPH are expected across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah, exceeding the meteorological criteria for critical conditions. However, there is uncertainty in the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread due to recent significant wetting rainfall, precluding the inclusion of critical highlights at this time. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more