Aggregator

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough progresses eastward from California into the northern Great Basin on Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of eastern Idaho, southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and portions of far northern Utah. This trough is also expected to bring dry and windy conditions to much of southern Nevada into southwestern Utah. ...Dry Thunder... An approaching trough from California is expected to bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Utah. Recent wetting rainfall could potentially limit some lightning ignitions, but pockets of receptive fuels still remain across much of the highlight area. Dry boundary-layer profiles will support gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. ...Southern Great Basin... Relative humidity of 5-10% and wind speeds of 25-30 MPH are expected across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah, exceeding the meteorological criteria for critical conditions. However, there is uncertainty in the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread due to recent significant wetting rainfall, precluding the inclusion of critical highlights at this time. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough progresses eastward from California into the northern Great Basin on Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of eastern Idaho, southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and portions of far northern Utah. This trough is also expected to bring dry and windy conditions to much of southern Nevada into southwestern Utah. ...Dry Thunder... An approaching trough from California is expected to bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Utah. Recent wetting rainfall could potentially limit some lightning ignitions, but pockets of receptive fuels still remain across much of the highlight area. Dry boundary-layer profiles will support gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. ...Southern Great Basin... Relative humidity of 5-10% and wind speeds of 25-30 MPH are expected across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah, exceeding the meteorological criteria for critical conditions. However, there is uncertainty in the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread due to recent significant wetting rainfall, precluding the inclusion of critical highlights at this time. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough progresses eastward from California into the northern Great Basin on Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of eastern Idaho, southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and portions of far northern Utah. This trough is also expected to bring dry and windy conditions to much of southern Nevada into southwestern Utah. ...Dry Thunder... An approaching trough from California is expected to bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Utah. Recent wetting rainfall could potentially limit some lightning ignitions, but pockets of receptive fuels still remain across much of the highlight area. Dry boundary-layer profiles will support gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. ...Southern Great Basin... Relative humidity of 5-10% and wind speeds of 25-30 MPH are expected across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah, exceeding the meteorological criteria for critical conditions. However, there is uncertainty in the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread due to recent significant wetting rainfall, precluding the inclusion of critical highlights at this time. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough progresses eastward from California into the northern Great Basin on Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of eastern Idaho, southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and portions of far northern Utah. This trough is also expected to bring dry and windy conditions to much of southern Nevada into southwestern Utah. ...Dry Thunder... An approaching trough from California is expected to bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Utah. Recent wetting rainfall could potentially limit some lightning ignitions, but pockets of receptive fuels still remain across much of the highlight area. Dry boundary-layer profiles will support gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. ...Southern Great Basin... Relative humidity of 5-10% and wind speeds of 25-30 MPH are expected across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah, exceeding the meteorological criteria for critical conditions. However, there is uncertainty in the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread due to recent significant wetting rainfall, precluding the inclusion of critical highlights at this time. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Two primary synoptic features will be responsible for bringing elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Northwest. A mid-level trough progressing eastward across the Bay Area and into the northern Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northeastern California, southern Oregon, and the Snake River Plain of Idaho, while an exiting jet streak associated with a trough centered over Saskatchewan will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northern Montana. These elevated highlights are primarily confined to where the dry and windy conditions correspond to regions where wetting rainfall has not impacted fuels over the last several days. ...Pacific Northeast and the Snake River Plain... Portions of northeastern California into southwestern Oregon, as well as the eastern portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, are expected to have dry and windy conditions that overlap with receptive fuels. Some wetting rainfall has occurred over the last few days, but with recent lightning activity and some pockets of receptive fuels, some potential for wildfire spread exists with any previously existing fires and lightning ignitions. ...Northern Montana... Some uncertainty exists about the receptiveness of fuels over western portions of the highlight area due to recent wetting rainfall, but generally, 20-25 MPH winds and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overlap with pockets of receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Portions of the Great Basin and far southern Montana may see a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Given the uncertainty in precipitation efficiency, and recent wetting rainfall over much of the area, dry thunder highlights have been withheld at this time. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Two primary synoptic features will be responsible for bringing elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Northwest. A mid-level trough progressing eastward across the Bay Area and into the northern Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northeastern California, southern Oregon, and the Snake River Plain of Idaho, while an exiting jet streak associated with a trough centered over Saskatchewan will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northern Montana. These elevated highlights are primarily confined to where the dry and windy conditions correspond to regions where wetting rainfall has not impacted fuels over the last several days. ...Pacific Northeast and the Snake River Plain... Portions of northeastern California into southwestern Oregon, as well as the eastern portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, are expected to have dry and windy conditions that overlap with receptive fuels. Some wetting rainfall has occurred over the last few days, but with recent lightning activity and some pockets of receptive fuels, some potential for wildfire spread exists with any previously existing fires and lightning ignitions. ...Northern Montana... Some uncertainty exists about the receptiveness of fuels over western portions of the highlight area due to recent wetting rainfall, but generally, 20-25 MPH winds and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overlap with pockets of receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Portions of the Great Basin and far southern Montana may see a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Given the uncertainty in precipitation efficiency, and recent wetting rainfall over much of the area, dry thunder highlights have been withheld at this time. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Two primary synoptic features will be responsible for bringing elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Northwest. A mid-level trough progressing eastward across the Bay Area and into the northern Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northeastern California, southern Oregon, and the Snake River Plain of Idaho, while an exiting jet streak associated with a trough centered over Saskatchewan will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northern Montana. These elevated highlights are primarily confined to where the dry and windy conditions correspond to regions where wetting rainfall has not impacted fuels over the last several days. ...Pacific Northeast and the Snake River Plain... Portions of northeastern California into southwestern Oregon, as well as the eastern portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, are expected to have dry and windy conditions that overlap with receptive fuels. Some wetting rainfall has occurred over the last few days, but with recent lightning activity and some pockets of receptive fuels, some potential for wildfire spread exists with any previously existing fires and lightning ignitions. ...Northern Montana... Some uncertainty exists about the receptiveness of fuels over western portions of the highlight area due to recent wetting rainfall, but generally, 20-25 MPH winds and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overlap with pockets of receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Portions of the Great Basin and far southern Montana may see a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Given the uncertainty in precipitation efficiency, and recent wetting rainfall over much of the area, dry thunder highlights have been withheld at this time. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Two primary synoptic features will be responsible for bringing elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Northwest. A mid-level trough progressing eastward across the Bay Area and into the northern Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northeastern California, southern Oregon, and the Snake River Plain of Idaho, while an exiting jet streak associated with a trough centered over Saskatchewan will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northern Montana. These elevated highlights are primarily confined to where the dry and windy conditions correspond to regions where wetting rainfall has not impacted fuels over the last several days. ...Pacific Northeast and the Snake River Plain... Portions of northeastern California into southwestern Oregon, as well as the eastern portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, are expected to have dry and windy conditions that overlap with receptive fuels. Some wetting rainfall has occurred over the last few days, but with recent lightning activity and some pockets of receptive fuels, some potential for wildfire spread exists with any previously existing fires and lightning ignitions. ...Northern Montana... Some uncertainty exists about the receptiveness of fuels over western portions of the highlight area due to recent wetting rainfall, but generally, 20-25 MPH winds and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overlap with pockets of receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Portions of the Great Basin and far southern Montana may see a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Given the uncertainty in precipitation efficiency, and recent wetting rainfall over much of the area, dry thunder highlights have been withheld at this time. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Two primary synoptic features will be responsible for bringing elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Northwest. A mid-level trough progressing eastward across the Bay Area and into the northern Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northeastern California, southern Oregon, and the Snake River Plain of Idaho, while an exiting jet streak associated with a trough centered over Saskatchewan will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northern Montana. These elevated highlights are primarily confined to where the dry and windy conditions correspond to regions where wetting rainfall has not impacted fuels over the last several days. ...Pacific Northeast and the Snake River Plain... Portions of northeastern California into southwestern Oregon, as well as the eastern portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, are expected to have dry and windy conditions that overlap with receptive fuels. Some wetting rainfall has occurred over the last few days, but with recent lightning activity and some pockets of receptive fuels, some potential for wildfire spread exists with any previously existing fires and lightning ignitions. ...Northern Montana... Some uncertainty exists about the receptiveness of fuels over western portions of the highlight area due to recent wetting rainfall, but generally, 20-25 MPH winds and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overlap with pockets of receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Portions of the Great Basin and far southern Montana may see a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Given the uncertainty in precipitation efficiency, and recent wetting rainfall over much of the area, dry thunder highlights have been withheld at this time. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...Synopsis... Two primary synoptic features will be responsible for bringing elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Northwest. A mid-level trough progressing eastward across the Bay Area and into the northern Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northeastern California, southern Oregon, and the Snake River Plain of Idaho, while an exiting jet streak associated with a trough centered over Saskatchewan will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northern Montana. These elevated highlights are primarily confined to where the dry and windy conditions correspond to regions where wetting rainfall has not impacted fuels over the last several days. ...Pacific Northeast and the Snake River Plain... Portions of northeastern California into southwestern Oregon, as well as the eastern portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, are expected to have dry and windy conditions that overlap with receptive fuels. Some wetting rainfall has occurred over the last few days, but with recent lightning activity and some pockets of receptive fuels, some potential for wildfire spread exists with any previously existing fires and lightning ignitions. ...Northern Montana... Some uncertainty exists about the receptiveness of fuels over western portions of the highlight area due to recent wetting rainfall, but generally, 20-25 MPH winds and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overlap with pockets of receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Portions of the Great Basin and far southern Montana may see a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Given the uncertainty in precipitation efficiency, and recent wetting rainfall over much of the area, dry thunder highlights have been withheld at this time. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/26/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the northern Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a broad upper-level trough will extend from British Columbia to the western Great Basin with a closed low across the Canadian Prairies. An elongated upper-level ridge will extend from the Southwest into the Great Lakes with a weak closed upper low near eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas. At the surface, high pressure will dominate the Great Lakes to the Northeast with low-pressure across the northern Plains. A cold front will extend from the Canadian Prairies into the Dakotas. This cold front will move east across the Dakotas and northern Nebraska on Saturday. ...Northern Plains... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly through North Dakota and northwest Minnesota Saturday morning and will likely have ongoing precipitation/thunderstorms. In the wake of this activity, low-level southerly flow is expected to strengthen in response strengthening lee troughing and a tightening pressure gradient in the northern Plains. This will assist in advecting rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints) across eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. As temperatures heat well into the 80s, inhibition should erode with thunderstorms likely developing along and ahead of the cold front by late afternoon/early evening. Straight hodographs with 40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow will support supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. During the evening, guidance is consistent with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, which may promote upscale growth into a MCS which could persist into the late evening into northwest Minnesota. Additional thunderstorms will likely develop along and ahead of the cold front in South Dakota and Nebraska. However, this region is well south of the stronger mid-level flow. In addition, forecast soundings show a deeply mixed airmass across this region with substantially less instability. Nonetheless, the inverted-v soundings would support isolated strong to severe wind gusts with any stronger updrafts which develop. ..Bentley.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the northern Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a broad upper-level trough will extend from British Columbia to the western Great Basin with a closed low across the Canadian Prairies. An elongated upper-level ridge will extend from the Southwest into the Great Lakes with a weak closed upper low near eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas. At the surface, high pressure will dominate the Great Lakes to the Northeast with low-pressure across the northern Plains. A cold front will extend from the Canadian Prairies into the Dakotas. This cold front will move east across the Dakotas and northern Nebraska on Saturday. ...Northern Plains... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly through North Dakota and northwest Minnesota Saturday morning and will likely have ongoing precipitation/thunderstorms. In the wake of this activity, low-level southerly flow is expected to strengthen in response strengthening lee troughing and a tightening pressure gradient in the northern Plains. This will assist in advecting rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints) across eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. As temperatures heat well into the 80s, inhibition should erode with thunderstorms likely developing along and ahead of the cold front by late afternoon/early evening. Straight hodographs with 40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow will support supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. During the evening, guidance is consistent with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, which may promote upscale growth into a MCS which could persist into the late evening into northwest Minnesota. Additional thunderstorms will likely develop along and ahead of the cold front in South Dakota and Nebraska. However, this region is well south of the stronger mid-level flow. In addition, forecast soundings show a deeply mixed airmass across this region with substantially less instability. Nonetheless, the inverted-v soundings would support isolated strong to severe wind gusts with any stronger updrafts which develop. ..Bentley.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the northern Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a broad upper-level trough will extend from British Columbia to the western Great Basin with a closed low across the Canadian Prairies. An elongated upper-level ridge will extend from the Southwest into the Great Lakes with a weak closed upper low near eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas. At the surface, high pressure will dominate the Great Lakes to the Northeast with low-pressure across the northern Plains. A cold front will extend from the Canadian Prairies into the Dakotas. This cold front will move east across the Dakotas and northern Nebraska on Saturday. ...Northern Plains... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly through North Dakota and northwest Minnesota Saturday morning and will likely have ongoing precipitation/thunderstorms. In the wake of this activity, low-level southerly flow is expected to strengthen in response strengthening lee troughing and a tightening pressure gradient in the northern Plains. This will assist in advecting rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints) across eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. As temperatures heat well into the 80s, inhibition should erode with thunderstorms likely developing along and ahead of the cold front by late afternoon/early evening. Straight hodographs with 40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow will support supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. During the evening, guidance is consistent with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, which may promote upscale growth into a MCS which could persist into the late evening into northwest Minnesota. Additional thunderstorms will likely develop along and ahead of the cold front in South Dakota and Nebraska. However, this region is well south of the stronger mid-level flow. In addition, forecast soundings show a deeply mixed airmass across this region with substantially less instability. Nonetheless, the inverted-v soundings would support isolated strong to severe wind gusts with any stronger updrafts which develop. ..Bentley.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the northern Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a broad upper-level trough will extend from British Columbia to the western Great Basin with a closed low across the Canadian Prairies. An elongated upper-level ridge will extend from the Southwest into the Great Lakes with a weak closed upper low near eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas. At the surface, high pressure will dominate the Great Lakes to the Northeast with low-pressure across the northern Plains. A cold front will extend from the Canadian Prairies into the Dakotas. This cold front will move east across the Dakotas and northern Nebraska on Saturday. ...Northern Plains... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly through North Dakota and northwest Minnesota Saturday morning and will likely have ongoing precipitation/thunderstorms. In the wake of this activity, low-level southerly flow is expected to strengthen in response strengthening lee troughing and a tightening pressure gradient in the northern Plains. This will assist in advecting rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints) across eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. As temperatures heat well into the 80s, inhibition should erode with thunderstorms likely developing along and ahead of the cold front by late afternoon/early evening. Straight hodographs with 40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow will support supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. During the evening, guidance is consistent with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, which may promote upscale growth into a MCS which could persist into the late evening into northwest Minnesota. Additional thunderstorms will likely develop along and ahead of the cold front in South Dakota and Nebraska. However, this region is well south of the stronger mid-level flow. In addition, forecast soundings show a deeply mixed airmass across this region with substantially less instability. Nonetheless, the inverted-v soundings would support isolated strong to severe wind gusts with any stronger updrafts which develop. ..Bentley.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the northern Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a broad upper-level trough will extend from British Columbia to the western Great Basin with a closed low across the Canadian Prairies. An elongated upper-level ridge will extend from the Southwest into the Great Lakes with a weak closed upper low near eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas. At the surface, high pressure will dominate the Great Lakes to the Northeast with low-pressure across the northern Plains. A cold front will extend from the Canadian Prairies into the Dakotas. This cold front will move east across the Dakotas and northern Nebraska on Saturday. ...Northern Plains... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly through North Dakota and northwest Minnesota Saturday morning and will likely have ongoing precipitation/thunderstorms. In the wake of this activity, low-level southerly flow is expected to strengthen in response strengthening lee troughing and a tightening pressure gradient in the northern Plains. This will assist in advecting rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints) across eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. As temperatures heat well into the 80s, inhibition should erode with thunderstorms likely developing along and ahead of the cold front by late afternoon/early evening. Straight hodographs with 40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow will support supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. During the evening, guidance is consistent with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, which may promote upscale growth into a MCS which could persist into the late evening into northwest Minnesota. Additional thunderstorms will likely develop along and ahead of the cold front in South Dakota and Nebraska. However, this region is well south of the stronger mid-level flow. In addition, forecast soundings show a deeply mixed airmass across this region with substantially less instability. Nonetheless, the inverted-v soundings would support isolated strong to severe wind gusts with any stronger updrafts which develop. ..Bentley.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1243 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the northern Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Synopsis... On Saturday, a broad upper-level trough will extend from British Columbia to the western Great Basin with a closed low across the Canadian Prairies. An elongated upper-level ridge will extend from the Southwest into the Great Lakes with a weak closed upper low near eastern Oklahoma/western Arkansas. At the surface, high pressure will dominate the Great Lakes to the Northeast with low-pressure across the northern Plains. A cold front will extend from the Canadian Prairies into the Dakotas. This cold front will move east across the Dakotas and northern Nebraska on Saturday. ...Northern Plains... A weak mid-level shortwave trough will move quickly through North Dakota and northwest Minnesota Saturday morning and will likely have ongoing precipitation/thunderstorms. In the wake of this activity, low-level southerly flow is expected to strengthen in response strengthening lee troughing and a tightening pressure gradient in the northern Plains. This will assist in advecting rich low-level moisture (upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints) across eastern North Dakota and northwest Minnesota. As temperatures heat well into the 80s, inhibition should erode with thunderstorms likely developing along and ahead of the cold front by late afternoon/early evening. Straight hodographs with 40 to 50 knots of mid-level flow will support supercells with a threat for large hail and damaging wind gusts. During the evening, guidance is consistent with a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet, which may promote upscale growth into a MCS which could persist into the late evening into northwest Minnesota. Additional thunderstorms will likely develop along and ahead of the cold front in South Dakota and Nebraska. However, this region is well south of the stronger mid-level flow. In addition, forecast soundings show a deeply mixed airmass across this region with substantially less instability. Nonetheless, the inverted-v soundings would support isolated strong to severe wind gusts with any stronger updrafts which develop. ..Bentley.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH...PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... CORRECTED FOR GEN THUNDER LINE/NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears seasonably low across much of the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... A significant inland migrating mid-level trough (and embedded low) is now progressing east-northeast of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies, and forecast to continue eastward across the Canadian Prairies today through tonight. While stronger mid-level height falls likely remain focused well to the north of the international border area, models indicate that mid-level heights will continue to fall across much of the West into the northern Great Plains, as weak trailing troughing develops inland of the Pacific coast and downstream ridging becomes increasingly suppressed. In lower levels, to the south of a deepening surface cyclone associated with the primary short wave perturbation, a modest cold front may advance east of the northern Rockies, before stalling and weakening across the northern Great Plains into northern portions of the Great Basin. As this regime evolves, destabilization associated with strong daytime heating and remnant monsoonal moisture appears likely to support considerable thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of eastern Arizona through the southern Rockies, and near lee surface troughing across the north central high plains. Additional, more widely scattered, thunderstorm activity may focus near/just ahead of the surface front across the northern Great Basin through portions of the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains. Some of the stronger, more persistent convection will probably overspread, or develop above, more strongly heated and deeply mixed (with large developing surface temperature-dew point spreads) lower elevations, accompanied by a risk for strong to locally severe wind gusts. ...Eastern North Dakota/Northwestern Minnesota... Beneath a plume of very warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, which will continue to advect northeastward across the northern Great Plains through the day, models indicate that seasonably moist boundary-layer air may support a narrow corridor of large potential instability across the Red River Valley vicinity into the stalling weakening frontal zone across northwestern Minnesota/southeastern Manitoba/adjacent northwest Ontario by early evening. Downstream of the base of the short wave perturbation crossing the Canadian Prairies, forcing for ascent may support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development. In the presence of at least 30-40 kt deep-layer shear, and modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, one or two supercells appear possible to the south of the international border, perhaps as far southwest as areas near/west of Grand Forks and Fargo. ..Kerr.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH...PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... CORRECTED FOR GEN THUNDER LINE/NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears seasonably low across much of the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... A significant inland migrating mid-level trough (and embedded low) is now progressing east-northeast of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies, and forecast to continue eastward across the Canadian Prairies today through tonight. While stronger mid-level height falls likely remain focused well to the north of the international border area, models indicate that mid-level heights will continue to fall across much of the West into the northern Great Plains, as weak trailing troughing develops inland of the Pacific coast and downstream ridging becomes increasingly suppressed. In lower levels, to the south of a deepening surface cyclone associated with the primary short wave perturbation, a modest cold front may advance east of the northern Rockies, before stalling and weakening across the northern Great Plains into northern portions of the Great Basin. As this regime evolves, destabilization associated with strong daytime heating and remnant monsoonal moisture appears likely to support considerable thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of eastern Arizona through the southern Rockies, and near lee surface troughing across the north central high plains. Additional, more widely scattered, thunderstorm activity may focus near/just ahead of the surface front across the northern Great Basin through portions of the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains. Some of the stronger, more persistent convection will probably overspread, or develop above, more strongly heated and deeply mixed (with large developing surface temperature-dew point spreads) lower elevations, accompanied by a risk for strong to locally severe wind gusts. ...Eastern North Dakota/Northwestern Minnesota... Beneath a plume of very warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, which will continue to advect northeastward across the northern Great Plains through the day, models indicate that seasonably moist boundary-layer air may support a narrow corridor of large potential instability across the Red River Valley vicinity into the stalling weakening frontal zone across northwestern Minnesota/southeastern Manitoba/adjacent northwest Ontario by early evening. Downstream of the base of the short wave perturbation crossing the Canadian Prairies, forcing for ascent may support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development. In the presence of at least 30-40 kt deep-layer shear, and modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, one or two supercells appear possible to the south of the international border, perhaps as far southwest as areas near/west of Grand Forks and Fargo. ..Kerr.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH...PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... CORRECTED FOR GEN THUNDER LINE/NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears seasonably low across much of the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... A significant inland migrating mid-level trough (and embedded low) is now progressing east-northeast of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies, and forecast to continue eastward across the Canadian Prairies today through tonight. While stronger mid-level height falls likely remain focused well to the north of the international border area, models indicate that mid-level heights will continue to fall across much of the West into the northern Great Plains, as weak trailing troughing develops inland of the Pacific coast and downstream ridging becomes increasingly suppressed. In lower levels, to the south of a deepening surface cyclone associated with the primary short wave perturbation, a modest cold front may advance east of the northern Rockies, before stalling and weakening across the northern Great Plains into northern portions of the Great Basin. As this regime evolves, destabilization associated with strong daytime heating and remnant monsoonal moisture appears likely to support considerable thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of eastern Arizona through the southern Rockies, and near lee surface troughing across the north central high plains. Additional, more widely scattered, thunderstorm activity may focus near/just ahead of the surface front across the northern Great Basin through portions of the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains. Some of the stronger, more persistent convection will probably overspread, or develop above, more strongly heated and deeply mixed (with large developing surface temperature-dew point spreads) lower elevations, accompanied by a risk for strong to locally severe wind gusts. ...Eastern North Dakota/Northwestern Minnesota... Beneath a plume of very warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, which will continue to advect northeastward across the northern Great Plains through the day, models indicate that seasonably moist boundary-layer air may support a narrow corridor of large potential instability across the Red River Valley vicinity into the stalling weakening frontal zone across northwestern Minnesota/southeastern Manitoba/adjacent northwest Ontario by early evening. Downstream of the base of the short wave perturbation crossing the Canadian Prairies, forcing for ascent may support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development. In the presence of at least 30-40 kt deep-layer shear, and modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, one or two supercells appear possible to the south of the international border, perhaps as far southwest as areas near/west of Grand Forks and Fargo. ..Kerr.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook CORR 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1231 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND ADJACENT SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA INTO WESTERN UTAH...PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA AND ADJACENT SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...AND PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA... CORRECTED FOR GEN THUNDER LINE/NDFD GRAPHIC ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears seasonably low across much of the U.S. today through tonight. ...Discussion... A significant inland migrating mid-level trough (and embedded low) is now progressing east-northeast of the Canadian and northern U.S. Rockies, and forecast to continue eastward across the Canadian Prairies today through tonight. While stronger mid-level height falls likely remain focused well to the north of the international border area, models indicate that mid-level heights will continue to fall across much of the West into the northern Great Plains, as weak trailing troughing develops inland of the Pacific coast and downstream ridging becomes increasingly suppressed. In lower levels, to the south of a deepening surface cyclone associated with the primary short wave perturbation, a modest cold front may advance east of the northern Rockies, before stalling and weakening across the northern Great Plains into northern portions of the Great Basin. As this regime evolves, destabilization associated with strong daytime heating and remnant monsoonal moisture appears likely to support considerable thunderstorm development this afternoon and evening across the higher terrain of eastern Arizona through the southern Rockies, and near lee surface troughing across the north central high plains. Additional, more widely scattered, thunderstorm activity may focus near/just ahead of the surface front across the northern Great Basin through portions of the northern Rockies and northern Great Plains. Some of the stronger, more persistent convection will probably overspread, or develop above, more strongly heated and deeply mixed (with large developing surface temperature-dew point spreads) lower elevations, accompanied by a risk for strong to locally severe wind gusts. ...Eastern North Dakota/Northwestern Minnesota... Beneath a plume of very warm and capping elevated mixed-layer air, which will continue to advect northeastward across the northern Great Plains through the day, models indicate that seasonably moist boundary-layer air may support a narrow corridor of large potential instability across the Red River Valley vicinity into the stalling weakening frontal zone across northwestern Minnesota/southeastern Manitoba/adjacent northwest Ontario by early evening. Downstream of the base of the short wave perturbation crossing the Canadian Prairies, forcing for ascent may support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development. In the presence of at least 30-40 kt deep-layer shear, and modest clockwise-curved low-level hodographs, one or two supercells appear possible to the south of the international border, perhaps as far southwest as areas near/west of Grand Forks and Fargo. ..Kerr.. 07/26/2024 Read more