Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 252318
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 25 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bud, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Jul 25 23:15:07 UTC 2024.

MD 1708 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA INTO NORTHWESTERN UTAH
Mesoscale Discussion 1708 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0445 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Areas affected...Central and Eastern Nevada into Northwestern Utah Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252145Z - 252315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts are possible across central and eastern Nevada into northwestern Utah this afternoon and evening. DISCUSSION...Steep lapse rates and relatively dry boundary layer profiles will support the potential for damaging wind gusts from thunderstorm outflow this afternoon and evening. With only meager buoyancy and minimal mid or upper-level flow/deep vertical shear to support organized convection, the occurrence of any severe winds will be isolated unless interacting thunderstorm outflow begins to organize into bowing segments later this evening. However, uncertainty in this scenario remains high, meaning severe thunderstorm watch issuance is uncertain at this time. ..Halbert/Weinman/Hart.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...REV... LAT...LON 38671526 38601626 38641666 38851715 39051736 39271759 39671774 39991785 40421760 40891682 41441604 42011518 42391459 42761392 42921296 42841238 42681210 42311184 41901177 41461171 40891171 40371207 39911224 39191286 38921363 38761437 38671526 Read more

MD 1707 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHWESTERN INTO NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1707 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Areas affected...Southwestern into North-Central Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 252025Z - 252300Z Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent SUMMARY...A few clusters of storms should emerge by late afternoon, posing a threat for damaging wind gusts. Watch issuance is possible. DISCUSSION...Visible satellite trends show persistent cumulus development in high terrain areas of southwestern into north-central Montana, with a few echoes now appearing on regional radar. This activity is developing in proximity to a cold front moving through the region, where surface heating and ample low-level moisture has allowed for destabilization coincident with upper-level forcing for ascent along the southern periphery of a mid-level trough. These factors are yielding MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. Strong flow associated with the trough is also yielding a broad region of deep-layer shear overspreading the area, with effective bulk shear values of 30-40 kt. The convective trends noted above are expected to continue. The early convection, mainly over southwest Montana presently, is expected to move northeast and expand in coverage, resulting in scattered thunderstorms within a southwest to northeast oriented corridor over central Montana by late afternoon/early evening. A few clusters of storms may emerge with time. Strong low-level lapse rates (> 9 C/km) across the region and the aforementioned enhanced flow aloft should allow for strong to severe outflow winds, particularly with any clusters of storms that develop. Given this potential, watch issuance is possible for the region and convective trends will be monitored. ..Karstens/Smith.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX... LAT...LON 45490937 45021010 45091084 45671139 46561149 47451073 48280998 49110903 49100691 46840821 45490937 Read more

WW 0560 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0560 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0560 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0560 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Jul 25 21:35:02 UTC 2024.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 PM CDT Thu Jul 25 2024 Valid 271200Z - 021200Z Fire weather concerns will be focused in parts of the Great Basin and northern Rockies during the extended period. A weak tropical disturbance will move into the Great Basin and eventually the central/northern Rockies this weekend. A second upper-level trough will move into the Northwest early next week and impact the northern Rockies into Wednesday. ...Wind/RH... Strong surface winds are expected in parts of the southern Great Basin on Saturday and perhaps Sunday. Critical fire weather is most likely on Saturday given the stronger mid-level winds and a deeper surface trough. Given the recent lighting activity in the area, fire weather activity could increase with the stronger winds and low RH. Sunday will be similarly dry, but winds will tend to be lighter as the upper trough loses amplitude and the surface pattern becomes more diffuse. Another increase in winds is possible on Monday with the second trough moving into the northern Great Basin. With lower confidence in the upper-level pattern this far in advance, no highlights will be added. Dry and windy conditions appear probable in parts of Wyoming/Montana with the approach of the second trough on Tuesday. As mentioned, the timing intensity of upper/surface features are uncertain enough to preclude highlights. However, with the amount of recent lightning activity, these areas will need to be monitored for an increase in critical fire weather potential. ...Dry Thunderstorms... A tropical disturbance will phase with the mean trough over the Northwest this weekend. This disturbance will move into portions of central and northern Nevada before losing amplitude as it progresses into the northern/central Rockies vicinity. Isolated dry thunderstorm activity is possible in parts of Idaho, western Wyoming, and southwestern Montana on Saturday. Some activity is possible on Sunday as well, but coverage should be less. Thunderstorms will again be possible in the northern Rockies with the second upper-level trough moving into the region Tuesday into Wednesday. Confidence is only low to moderate given the high amount of variability with regard to the upper-level pattern in recent model runs. ..Wendt.. 07/25/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more