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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The main change to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to expand isolated dry thunderstorm highlights westward to include portions of western Idaho into eastern Oregon. The lack of upper-level support and shallow buoyancy suggests that thunderstorm development in these areas should be more sparse compared to places farther east. Still, fuel beds in these areas remain receptive to fire spread wherever dry strikes may occur, necessitating the expanse of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough progresses eastward from California into the northern Great Basin on Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of eastern Idaho, southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and portions of far northern Utah. This trough is also expected to bring dry and windy conditions to much of southern Nevada into southwestern Utah. ...Dry Thunder... An approaching trough from California is expected to bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Utah. Recent wetting rainfall could potentially limit some lightning ignitions, but pockets of receptive fuels still remain across much of the highlight area. Dry boundary-layer profiles will support gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. ...Southern Great Basin... Relative humidity of 5-10% and wind speeds of 25-30 MPH are expected across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah, exceeding the meteorological criteria for critical conditions. However, there is uncertainty in the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread due to recent significant wetting rainfall, precluding the inclusion of critical highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The main change to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to expand isolated dry thunderstorm highlights westward to include portions of western Idaho into eastern Oregon. The lack of upper-level support and shallow buoyancy suggests that thunderstorm development in these areas should be more sparse compared to places farther east. Still, fuel beds in these areas remain receptive to fire spread wherever dry strikes may occur, necessitating the expanse of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough progresses eastward from California into the northern Great Basin on Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of eastern Idaho, southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and portions of far northern Utah. This trough is also expected to bring dry and windy conditions to much of southern Nevada into southwestern Utah. ...Dry Thunder... An approaching trough from California is expected to bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Utah. Recent wetting rainfall could potentially limit some lightning ignitions, but pockets of receptive fuels still remain across much of the highlight area. Dry boundary-layer profiles will support gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. ...Southern Great Basin... Relative humidity of 5-10% and wind speeds of 25-30 MPH are expected across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah, exceeding the meteorological criteria for critical conditions. However, there is uncertainty in the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread due to recent significant wetting rainfall, precluding the inclusion of critical highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The main change to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to expand isolated dry thunderstorm highlights westward to include portions of western Idaho into eastern Oregon. The lack of upper-level support and shallow buoyancy suggests that thunderstorm development in these areas should be more sparse compared to places farther east. Still, fuel beds in these areas remain receptive to fire spread wherever dry strikes may occur, necessitating the expanse of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough progresses eastward from California into the northern Great Basin on Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of eastern Idaho, southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and portions of far northern Utah. This trough is also expected to bring dry and windy conditions to much of southern Nevada into southwestern Utah. ...Dry Thunder... An approaching trough from California is expected to bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Utah. Recent wetting rainfall could potentially limit some lightning ignitions, but pockets of receptive fuels still remain across much of the highlight area. Dry boundary-layer profiles will support gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. ...Southern Great Basin... Relative humidity of 5-10% and wind speeds of 25-30 MPH are expected across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah, exceeding the meteorological criteria for critical conditions. However, there is uncertainty in the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread due to recent significant wetting rainfall, precluding the inclusion of critical highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The main change to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to expand isolated dry thunderstorm highlights westward to include portions of western Idaho into eastern Oregon. The lack of upper-level support and shallow buoyancy suggests that thunderstorm development in these areas should be more sparse compared to places farther east. Still, fuel beds in these areas remain receptive to fire spread wherever dry strikes may occur, necessitating the expanse of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough progresses eastward from California into the northern Great Basin on Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of eastern Idaho, southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and portions of far northern Utah. This trough is also expected to bring dry and windy conditions to much of southern Nevada into southwestern Utah. ...Dry Thunder... An approaching trough from California is expected to bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Utah. Recent wetting rainfall could potentially limit some lightning ignitions, but pockets of receptive fuels still remain across much of the highlight area. Dry boundary-layer profiles will support gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. ...Southern Great Basin... Relative humidity of 5-10% and wind speeds of 25-30 MPH are expected across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah, exceeding the meteorological criteria for critical conditions. However, there is uncertainty in the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread due to recent significant wetting rainfall, precluding the inclusion of critical highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0235 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z The main change to the Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Update was to expand isolated dry thunderstorm highlights westward to include portions of western Idaho into eastern Oregon. The lack of upper-level support and shallow buoyancy suggests that thunderstorm development in these areas should be more sparse compared to places farther east. Still, fuel beds in these areas remain receptive to fire spread wherever dry strikes may occur, necessitating the expanse of isolated dry thunderstorm highlights this outlook. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0158 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... As a mid-level trough progresses eastward from California into the northern Great Basin on Saturday, isolated dry thunderstorms are expected across portions of eastern Idaho, southwestern Montana, western Wyoming, and portions of far northern Utah. This trough is also expected to bring dry and windy conditions to much of southern Nevada into southwestern Utah. ...Dry Thunder... An approaching trough from California is expected to bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to portions of Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, and Utah. Recent wetting rainfall could potentially limit some lightning ignitions, but pockets of receptive fuels still remain across much of the highlight area. Dry boundary-layer profiles will support gusty thunderstorm outflow that could contribute to wildfire spread with any lightning based ignitions. ...Southern Great Basin... Relative humidity of 5-10% and wind speeds of 25-30 MPH are expected across southern Nevada into southwestern Utah, exceeding the meteorological criteria for critical conditions. However, there is uncertainty in the receptiveness of fuels to wildfire spread due to recent significant wetting rainfall, precluding the inclusion of critical highlights at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO FAR NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the northern Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is expected to extend from the northern/central Canadian Prairie Provinces southwestward into northern/central CA early Saturday morning. Two primary shortwave troughs will be embedded within this troughing, one over the northern/central Canadian Prairies and the other over northern CA. Both shortwaves are expected to progresses east-northeastward throughout the day while losing amplitude. Eastward progress of this systems will be slowed by the Rex block downstream, with the southern cyclone initially over northeast OK/southeast KS and the northern anticyclone over Lake Michigan. This Rex block is forecast to break down under the influence of the western troughing, with the upper low drifting northeastward into southern MO and the upper ridge shifting eastward over the Lower Great Lakes by early Sunday. Surface pattern is forecast to feature an eastern CONUS ridge, initially centered over the Lower Great Lakes but extending southward into the Southeast. This ridging is expected to remain largely in place, while lee surface troughing sharpens across the High Plains and a cold front associated with the Canadian Prairie shortwave trough moves into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the cold front across ND Saturday evening. Storm development is also anticipated farther southwest across the central Rockies, with the resulting storms then tracking eastward into the central High Plains. ...Northern Plains.. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning from the eastern Dakotas int northwest MN, remnant from overnight development across the western/central Dakotas. This activity will likely be weak, but cloud cover and associated outflow could act to provide the surface boundaries needed to provide the impetus for additional storms during the afternoon/evening. Large-scale forcing will be weak, but low-level convergence and ample low-level moisture could still result in thunderstorm initiation. Given the steep low-level lapse rates and high cloud bases, damaging gust will be the primary threat. Even so, some hail is possible with the early, more cellular storms. A tornado or two is possible as well if the boundary is sharp, with surface winds backing in its vicinity. Mesoscale factors will play a large role in determining the storm coverage and associated severe potential, which merits keeping low severe probabilities with this outlook given the forecast range. Farther east, thunderstorm development appears likely along the southeastward-progressing cold front expected to move across the western Dakotas during the late afternoon. Ample low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization despite strong mixing, and robust updrafts are likely within the initial development. Hail is possible early, with a quick transition to outflow-dominant structures anticipated. Highest coverage is expected across ND, which corresponds to the greatest severe thunderstorm potential as well. Storm longevity will be limited by the onset of nocturnal cooling, which should lead to relatively quick low-level airmass stabilization. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies and central High Plains... A belt of enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to stretch from the base of the northern/central CA shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis into the northern Plains. The CA shortwave is expected to progress northeastward throughout the period, with a subtle, convectively enhanced lead shortwave trough likely proceeding it across the central Rockies. Large-scale ascent attendant to these shortwaves coupled with increased mid-level moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing will support thunderstorms across much of the region, beginning over the higher terrain and then eventually spreading into the High Plains. Gusty outflow winds could accompany of any of the stronger, more persistent storms. Coverage of these strong storms may be high enough to merit greater severe probabilities in later outlooks. ..Mosier.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO FAR NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the northern Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is expected to extend from the northern/central Canadian Prairie Provinces southwestward into northern/central CA early Saturday morning. Two primary shortwave troughs will be embedded within this troughing, one over the northern/central Canadian Prairies and the other over northern CA. Both shortwaves are expected to progresses east-northeastward throughout the day while losing amplitude. Eastward progress of this systems will be slowed by the Rex block downstream, with the southern cyclone initially over northeast OK/southeast KS and the northern anticyclone over Lake Michigan. This Rex block is forecast to break down under the influence of the western troughing, with the upper low drifting northeastward into southern MO and the upper ridge shifting eastward over the Lower Great Lakes by early Sunday. Surface pattern is forecast to feature an eastern CONUS ridge, initially centered over the Lower Great Lakes but extending southward into the Southeast. This ridging is expected to remain largely in place, while lee surface troughing sharpens across the High Plains and a cold front associated with the Canadian Prairie shortwave trough moves into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the cold front across ND Saturday evening. Storm development is also anticipated farther southwest across the central Rockies, with the resulting storms then tracking eastward into the central High Plains. ...Northern Plains.. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning from the eastern Dakotas int northwest MN, remnant from overnight development across the western/central Dakotas. This activity will likely be weak, but cloud cover and associated outflow could act to provide the surface boundaries needed to provide the impetus for additional storms during the afternoon/evening. Large-scale forcing will be weak, but low-level convergence and ample low-level moisture could still result in thunderstorm initiation. Given the steep low-level lapse rates and high cloud bases, damaging gust will be the primary threat. Even so, some hail is possible with the early, more cellular storms. A tornado or two is possible as well if the boundary is sharp, with surface winds backing in its vicinity. Mesoscale factors will play a large role in determining the storm coverage and associated severe potential, which merits keeping low severe probabilities with this outlook given the forecast range. Farther east, thunderstorm development appears likely along the southeastward-progressing cold front expected to move across the western Dakotas during the late afternoon. Ample low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization despite strong mixing, and robust updrafts are likely within the initial development. Hail is possible early, with a quick transition to outflow-dominant structures anticipated. Highest coverage is expected across ND, which corresponds to the greatest severe thunderstorm potential as well. Storm longevity will be limited by the onset of nocturnal cooling, which should lead to relatively quick low-level airmass stabilization. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies and central High Plains... A belt of enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to stretch from the base of the northern/central CA shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis into the northern Plains. The CA shortwave is expected to progress northeastward throughout the period, with a subtle, convectively enhanced lead shortwave trough likely proceeding it across the central Rockies. Large-scale ascent attendant to these shortwaves coupled with increased mid-level moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing will support thunderstorms across much of the region, beginning over the higher terrain and then eventually spreading into the High Plains. Gusty outflow winds could accompany of any of the stronger, more persistent storms. Coverage of these strong storms may be high enough to merit greater severe probabilities in later outlooks. ..Mosier.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO FAR NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the northern Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is expected to extend from the northern/central Canadian Prairie Provinces southwestward into northern/central CA early Saturday morning. Two primary shortwave troughs will be embedded within this troughing, one over the northern/central Canadian Prairies and the other over northern CA. Both shortwaves are expected to progresses east-northeastward throughout the day while losing amplitude. Eastward progress of this systems will be slowed by the Rex block downstream, with the southern cyclone initially over northeast OK/southeast KS and the northern anticyclone over Lake Michigan. This Rex block is forecast to break down under the influence of the western troughing, with the upper low drifting northeastward into southern MO and the upper ridge shifting eastward over the Lower Great Lakes by early Sunday. Surface pattern is forecast to feature an eastern CONUS ridge, initially centered over the Lower Great Lakes but extending southward into the Southeast. This ridging is expected to remain largely in place, while lee surface troughing sharpens across the High Plains and a cold front associated with the Canadian Prairie shortwave trough moves into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the cold front across ND Saturday evening. Storm development is also anticipated farther southwest across the central Rockies, with the resulting storms then tracking eastward into the central High Plains. ...Northern Plains.. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning from the eastern Dakotas int northwest MN, remnant from overnight development across the western/central Dakotas. This activity will likely be weak, but cloud cover and associated outflow could act to provide the surface boundaries needed to provide the impetus for additional storms during the afternoon/evening. Large-scale forcing will be weak, but low-level convergence and ample low-level moisture could still result in thunderstorm initiation. Given the steep low-level lapse rates and high cloud bases, damaging gust will be the primary threat. Even so, some hail is possible with the early, more cellular storms. A tornado or two is possible as well if the boundary is sharp, with surface winds backing in its vicinity. Mesoscale factors will play a large role in determining the storm coverage and associated severe potential, which merits keeping low severe probabilities with this outlook given the forecast range. Farther east, thunderstorm development appears likely along the southeastward-progressing cold front expected to move across the western Dakotas during the late afternoon. Ample low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization despite strong mixing, and robust updrafts are likely within the initial development. Hail is possible early, with a quick transition to outflow-dominant structures anticipated. Highest coverage is expected across ND, which corresponds to the greatest severe thunderstorm potential as well. Storm longevity will be limited by the onset of nocturnal cooling, which should lead to relatively quick low-level airmass stabilization. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies and central High Plains... A belt of enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to stretch from the base of the northern/central CA shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis into the northern Plains. The CA shortwave is expected to progress northeastward throughout the period, with a subtle, convectively enhanced lead shortwave trough likely proceeding it across the central Rockies. Large-scale ascent attendant to these shortwaves coupled with increased mid-level moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing will support thunderstorms across much of the region, beginning over the higher terrain and then eventually spreading into the High Plains. Gusty outflow winds could accompany of any of the stronger, more persistent storms. Coverage of these strong storms may be high enough to merit greater severe probabilities in later outlooks. ..Mosier.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO FAR NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the northern Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is expected to extend from the northern/central Canadian Prairie Provinces southwestward into northern/central CA early Saturday morning. Two primary shortwave troughs will be embedded within this troughing, one over the northern/central Canadian Prairies and the other over northern CA. Both shortwaves are expected to progresses east-northeastward throughout the day while losing amplitude. Eastward progress of this systems will be slowed by the Rex block downstream, with the southern cyclone initially over northeast OK/southeast KS and the northern anticyclone over Lake Michigan. This Rex block is forecast to break down under the influence of the western troughing, with the upper low drifting northeastward into southern MO and the upper ridge shifting eastward over the Lower Great Lakes by early Sunday. Surface pattern is forecast to feature an eastern CONUS ridge, initially centered over the Lower Great Lakes but extending southward into the Southeast. This ridging is expected to remain largely in place, while lee surface troughing sharpens across the High Plains and a cold front associated with the Canadian Prairie shortwave trough moves into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the cold front across ND Saturday evening. Storm development is also anticipated farther southwest across the central Rockies, with the resulting storms then tracking eastward into the central High Plains. ...Northern Plains.. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning from the eastern Dakotas int northwest MN, remnant from overnight development across the western/central Dakotas. This activity will likely be weak, but cloud cover and associated outflow could act to provide the surface boundaries needed to provide the impetus for additional storms during the afternoon/evening. Large-scale forcing will be weak, but low-level convergence and ample low-level moisture could still result in thunderstorm initiation. Given the steep low-level lapse rates and high cloud bases, damaging gust will be the primary threat. Even so, some hail is possible with the early, more cellular storms. A tornado or two is possible as well if the boundary is sharp, with surface winds backing in its vicinity. Mesoscale factors will play a large role in determining the storm coverage and associated severe potential, which merits keeping low severe probabilities with this outlook given the forecast range. Farther east, thunderstorm development appears likely along the southeastward-progressing cold front expected to move across the western Dakotas during the late afternoon. Ample low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization despite strong mixing, and robust updrafts are likely within the initial development. Hail is possible early, with a quick transition to outflow-dominant structures anticipated. Highest coverage is expected across ND, which corresponds to the greatest severe thunderstorm potential as well. Storm longevity will be limited by the onset of nocturnal cooling, which should lead to relatively quick low-level airmass stabilization. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies and central High Plains... A belt of enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to stretch from the base of the northern/central CA shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis into the northern Plains. The CA shortwave is expected to progress northeastward throughout the period, with a subtle, convectively enhanced lead shortwave trough likely proceeding it across the central Rockies. Large-scale ascent attendant to these shortwaves coupled with increased mid-level moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing will support thunderstorms across much of the region, beginning over the higher terrain and then eventually spreading into the High Plains. Gusty outflow winds could accompany of any of the stronger, more persistent storms. Coverage of these strong storms may be high enough to merit greater severe probabilities in later outlooks. ..Mosier.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO FAR NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the northern Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is expected to extend from the northern/central Canadian Prairie Provinces southwestward into northern/central CA early Saturday morning. Two primary shortwave troughs will be embedded within this troughing, one over the northern/central Canadian Prairies and the other over northern CA. Both shortwaves are expected to progresses east-northeastward throughout the day while losing amplitude. Eastward progress of this systems will be slowed by the Rex block downstream, with the southern cyclone initially over northeast OK/southeast KS and the northern anticyclone over Lake Michigan. This Rex block is forecast to break down under the influence of the western troughing, with the upper low drifting northeastward into southern MO and the upper ridge shifting eastward over the Lower Great Lakes by early Sunday. Surface pattern is forecast to feature an eastern CONUS ridge, initially centered over the Lower Great Lakes but extending southward into the Southeast. This ridging is expected to remain largely in place, while lee surface troughing sharpens across the High Plains and a cold front associated with the Canadian Prairie shortwave trough moves into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the cold front across ND Saturday evening. Storm development is also anticipated farther southwest across the central Rockies, with the resulting storms then tracking eastward into the central High Plains. ...Northern Plains.. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning from the eastern Dakotas int northwest MN, remnant from overnight development across the western/central Dakotas. This activity will likely be weak, but cloud cover and associated outflow could act to provide the surface boundaries needed to provide the impetus for additional storms during the afternoon/evening. Large-scale forcing will be weak, but low-level convergence and ample low-level moisture could still result in thunderstorm initiation. Given the steep low-level lapse rates and high cloud bases, damaging gust will be the primary threat. Even so, some hail is possible with the early, more cellular storms. A tornado or two is possible as well if the boundary is sharp, with surface winds backing in its vicinity. Mesoscale factors will play a large role in determining the storm coverage and associated severe potential, which merits keeping low severe probabilities with this outlook given the forecast range. Farther east, thunderstorm development appears likely along the southeastward-progressing cold front expected to move across the western Dakotas during the late afternoon. Ample low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization despite strong mixing, and robust updrafts are likely within the initial development. Hail is possible early, with a quick transition to outflow-dominant structures anticipated. Highest coverage is expected across ND, which corresponds to the greatest severe thunderstorm potential as well. Storm longevity will be limited by the onset of nocturnal cooling, which should lead to relatively quick low-level airmass stabilization. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies and central High Plains... A belt of enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to stretch from the base of the northern/central CA shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis into the northern Plains. The CA shortwave is expected to progress northeastward throughout the period, with a subtle, convectively enhanced lead shortwave trough likely proceeding it across the central Rockies. Large-scale ascent attendant to these shortwaves coupled with increased mid-level moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing will support thunderstorms across much of the region, beginning over the higher terrain and then eventually spreading into the High Plains. Gusty outflow winds could accompany of any of the stronger, more persistent storms. Coverage of these strong storms may be high enough to merit greater severe probabilities in later outlooks. ..Mosier.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO FAR NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the northern Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is expected to extend from the northern/central Canadian Prairie Provinces southwestward into northern/central CA early Saturday morning. Two primary shortwave troughs will be embedded within this troughing, one over the northern/central Canadian Prairies and the other over northern CA. Both shortwaves are expected to progresses east-northeastward throughout the day while losing amplitude. Eastward progress of this systems will be slowed by the Rex block downstream, with the southern cyclone initially over northeast OK/southeast KS and the northern anticyclone over Lake Michigan. This Rex block is forecast to break down under the influence of the western troughing, with the upper low drifting northeastward into southern MO and the upper ridge shifting eastward over the Lower Great Lakes by early Sunday. Surface pattern is forecast to feature an eastern CONUS ridge, initially centered over the Lower Great Lakes but extending southward into the Southeast. This ridging is expected to remain largely in place, while lee surface troughing sharpens across the High Plains and a cold front associated with the Canadian Prairie shortwave trough moves into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the cold front across ND Saturday evening. Storm development is also anticipated farther southwest across the central Rockies, with the resulting storms then tracking eastward into the central High Plains. ...Northern Plains.. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning from the eastern Dakotas int northwest MN, remnant from overnight development across the western/central Dakotas. This activity will likely be weak, but cloud cover and associated outflow could act to provide the surface boundaries needed to provide the impetus for additional storms during the afternoon/evening. Large-scale forcing will be weak, but low-level convergence and ample low-level moisture could still result in thunderstorm initiation. Given the steep low-level lapse rates and high cloud bases, damaging gust will be the primary threat. Even so, some hail is possible with the early, more cellular storms. A tornado or two is possible as well if the boundary is sharp, with surface winds backing in its vicinity. Mesoscale factors will play a large role in determining the storm coverage and associated severe potential, which merits keeping low severe probabilities with this outlook given the forecast range. Farther east, thunderstorm development appears likely along the southeastward-progressing cold front expected to move across the western Dakotas during the late afternoon. Ample low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization despite strong mixing, and robust updrafts are likely within the initial development. Hail is possible early, with a quick transition to outflow-dominant structures anticipated. Highest coverage is expected across ND, which corresponds to the greatest severe thunderstorm potential as well. Storm longevity will be limited by the onset of nocturnal cooling, which should lead to relatively quick low-level airmass stabilization. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies and central High Plains... A belt of enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to stretch from the base of the northern/central CA shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis into the northern Plains. The CA shortwave is expected to progress northeastward throughout the period, with a subtle, convectively enhanced lead shortwave trough likely proceeding it across the central Rockies. Large-scale ascent attendant to these shortwaves coupled with increased mid-level moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing will support thunderstorms across much of the region, beginning over the higher terrain and then eventually spreading into the High Plains. Gusty outflow winds could accompany of any of the stronger, more persistent storms. Coverage of these strong storms may be high enough to merit greater severe probabilities in later outlooks. ..Mosier.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO FAR NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the northern Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is expected to extend from the northern/central Canadian Prairie Provinces southwestward into northern/central CA early Saturday morning. Two primary shortwave troughs will be embedded within this troughing, one over the northern/central Canadian Prairies and the other over northern CA. Both shortwaves are expected to progresses east-northeastward throughout the day while losing amplitude. Eastward progress of this systems will be slowed by the Rex block downstream, with the southern cyclone initially over northeast OK/southeast KS and the northern anticyclone over Lake Michigan. This Rex block is forecast to break down under the influence of the western troughing, with the upper low drifting northeastward into southern MO and the upper ridge shifting eastward over the Lower Great Lakes by early Sunday. Surface pattern is forecast to feature an eastern CONUS ridge, initially centered over the Lower Great Lakes but extending southward into the Southeast. This ridging is expected to remain largely in place, while lee surface troughing sharpens across the High Plains and a cold front associated with the Canadian Prairie shortwave trough moves into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the cold front across ND Saturday evening. Storm development is also anticipated farther southwest across the central Rockies, with the resulting storms then tracking eastward into the central High Plains. ...Northern Plains.. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning from the eastern Dakotas int northwest MN, remnant from overnight development across the western/central Dakotas. This activity will likely be weak, but cloud cover and associated outflow could act to provide the surface boundaries needed to provide the impetus for additional storms during the afternoon/evening. Large-scale forcing will be weak, but low-level convergence and ample low-level moisture could still result in thunderstorm initiation. Given the steep low-level lapse rates and high cloud bases, damaging gust will be the primary threat. Even so, some hail is possible with the early, more cellular storms. A tornado or two is possible as well if the boundary is sharp, with surface winds backing in its vicinity. Mesoscale factors will play a large role in determining the storm coverage and associated severe potential, which merits keeping low severe probabilities with this outlook given the forecast range. Farther east, thunderstorm development appears likely along the southeastward-progressing cold front expected to move across the western Dakotas during the late afternoon. Ample low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization despite strong mixing, and robust updrafts are likely within the initial development. Hail is possible early, with a quick transition to outflow-dominant structures anticipated. Highest coverage is expected across ND, which corresponds to the greatest severe thunderstorm potential as well. Storm longevity will be limited by the onset of nocturnal cooling, which should lead to relatively quick low-level airmass stabilization. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies and central High Plains... A belt of enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to stretch from the base of the northern/central CA shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis into the northern Plains. The CA shortwave is expected to progress northeastward throughout the period, with a subtle, convectively enhanced lead shortwave trough likely proceeding it across the central Rockies. Large-scale ascent attendant to these shortwaves coupled with increased mid-level moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing will support thunderstorms across much of the region, beginning over the higher terrain and then eventually spreading into the High Plains. Gusty outflow winds could accompany of any of the stronger, more persistent storms. Coverage of these strong storms may be high enough to merit greater severe probabilities in later outlooks. ..Mosier.. 07/26/2024 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 271200Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN ND INTO FAR NORTHWEST MN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across portions of the northern Plains vicinity on Saturday. ...Synopsis... Upper troughing is expected to extend from the northern/central Canadian Prairie Provinces southwestward into northern/central CA early Saturday morning. Two primary shortwave troughs will be embedded within this troughing, one over the northern/central Canadian Prairies and the other over northern CA. Both shortwaves are expected to progresses east-northeastward throughout the day while losing amplitude. Eastward progress of this systems will be slowed by the Rex block downstream, with the southern cyclone initially over northeast OK/southeast KS and the northern anticyclone over Lake Michigan. This Rex block is forecast to break down under the influence of the western troughing, with the upper low drifting northeastward into southern MO and the upper ridge shifting eastward over the Lower Great Lakes by early Sunday. Surface pattern is forecast to feature an eastern CONUS ridge, initially centered over the Lower Great Lakes but extending southward into the Southeast. This ridging is expected to remain largely in place, while lee surface troughing sharpens across the High Plains and a cold front associated with the Canadian Prairie shortwave trough moves into the northern Plains. Thunderstorm development is anticipated along the cold front across ND Saturday evening. Storm development is also anticipated farther southwest across the central Rockies, with the resulting storms then tracking eastward into the central High Plains. ...Northern Plains.. Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning from the eastern Dakotas int northwest MN, remnant from overnight development across the western/central Dakotas. This activity will likely be weak, but cloud cover and associated outflow could act to provide the surface boundaries needed to provide the impetus for additional storms during the afternoon/evening. Large-scale forcing will be weak, but low-level convergence and ample low-level moisture could still result in thunderstorm initiation. Given the steep low-level lapse rates and high cloud bases, damaging gust will be the primary threat. Even so, some hail is possible with the early, more cellular storms. A tornado or two is possible as well if the boundary is sharp, with surface winds backing in its vicinity. Mesoscale factors will play a large role in determining the storm coverage and associated severe potential, which merits keeping low severe probabilities with this outlook given the forecast range. Farther east, thunderstorm development appears likely along the southeastward-progressing cold front expected to move across the western Dakotas during the late afternoon. Ample low-level moisture will support airmass destabilization despite strong mixing, and robust updrafts are likely within the initial development. Hail is possible early, with a quick transition to outflow-dominant structures anticipated. Highest coverage is expected across ND, which corresponds to the greatest severe thunderstorm potential as well. Storm longevity will be limited by the onset of nocturnal cooling, which should lead to relatively quick low-level airmass stabilization. ...Northern Great Basin into the central Rockies and central High Plains... A belt of enhanced mid-level flow is forecast to stretch from the base of the northern/central CA shortwave trough mentioned in the synopsis into the northern Plains. The CA shortwave is expected to progress northeastward throughout the period, with a subtle, convectively enhanced lead shortwave trough likely proceeding it across the central Rockies. Large-scale ascent attendant to these shortwaves coupled with increased mid-level moisture and deep boundary-layer mixing will support thunderstorms across much of the region, beginning over the higher terrain and then eventually spreading into the High Plains. Gusty outflow winds could accompany of any of the stronger, more persistent storms. Coverage of these strong storms may be high enough to merit greater severe probabilities in later outlooks. ..Mosier.. 07/26/2024 Read more

625
ABPZ20 KNHC 261721
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 26 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Bud, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle of next week
a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
slow development is possible after that time as the system moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Residents of Frostburg were urged to voluntarily conserve water due to drought and the declining level of Piney Reservoir. The water conservation advisory also affects the communities served by Frostburg’s water system, including Eckhart, Consol, Grahamtown, Clarysville, Carlos, Shaft, Klondike, Borden, Zihlman, Mount Savage, Woodcock Hollow, and the Georges Creek Water Service area, which covers Midland, Gilmore, Lonaconing, Pekin, and Barton. Shore News Network (Rutherford, N.J.), July 26, 2024

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The main change to this outlook was to add isolated dry thunderstorm highlights to portions of central and northern Utah. Thunderstorms from prior days may have tempered fuels to a degree. Nonetheless, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected later this afternoon and tonight, and some of these storms may pass over fuel beds that have experienced minimal rainfall. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with minor changes made to existing highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Two primary synoptic features will be responsible for bringing elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Northwest. A mid-level trough progressing eastward across the Bay Area and into the northern Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northeastern California, southern Oregon, and the Snake River Plain of Idaho, while an exiting jet streak associated with a trough centered over Saskatchewan will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northern Montana. These elevated highlights are primarily confined to where the dry and windy conditions correspond to regions where wetting rainfall has not impacted fuels over the last several days. ...Pacific Northeast and the Snake River Plain... Portions of northeastern California into southwestern Oregon, as well as the eastern portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, are expected to have dry and windy conditions that overlap with receptive fuels. Some wetting rainfall has occurred over the last few days, but with recent lightning activity and some pockets of receptive fuels, some potential for wildfire spread exists with any previously existing fires and lightning ignitions. ...Northern Montana... Some uncertainty exists about the receptiveness of fuels over western portions of the highlight area due to recent wetting rainfall, but generally, 20-25 MPH winds and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overlap with pockets of receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Portions of the Great Basin and far southern Montana may see a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Given the uncertainty in precipitation efficiency, and recent wetting rainfall over much of the area, dry thunder highlights have been withheld at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The main change to this outlook was to add isolated dry thunderstorm highlights to portions of central and northern Utah. Thunderstorms from prior days may have tempered fuels to a degree. Nonetheless, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected later this afternoon and tonight, and some of these storms may pass over fuel beds that have experienced minimal rainfall. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with minor changes made to existing highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Two primary synoptic features will be responsible for bringing elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Northwest. A mid-level trough progressing eastward across the Bay Area and into the northern Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northeastern California, southern Oregon, and the Snake River Plain of Idaho, while an exiting jet streak associated with a trough centered over Saskatchewan will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northern Montana. These elevated highlights are primarily confined to where the dry and windy conditions correspond to regions where wetting rainfall has not impacted fuels over the last several days. ...Pacific Northeast and the Snake River Plain... Portions of northeastern California into southwestern Oregon, as well as the eastern portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, are expected to have dry and windy conditions that overlap with receptive fuels. Some wetting rainfall has occurred over the last few days, but with recent lightning activity and some pockets of receptive fuels, some potential for wildfire spread exists with any previously existing fires and lightning ignitions. ...Northern Montana... Some uncertainty exists about the receptiveness of fuels over western portions of the highlight area due to recent wetting rainfall, but generally, 20-25 MPH winds and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overlap with pockets of receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Portions of the Great Basin and far southern Montana may see a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Given the uncertainty in precipitation efficiency, and recent wetting rainfall over much of the area, dry thunder highlights have been withheld at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The main change to this outlook was to add isolated dry thunderstorm highlights to portions of central and northern Utah. Thunderstorms from prior days may have tempered fuels to a degree. Nonetheless, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected later this afternoon and tonight, and some of these storms may pass over fuel beds that have experienced minimal rainfall. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with minor changes made to existing highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Two primary synoptic features will be responsible for bringing elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Northwest. A mid-level trough progressing eastward across the Bay Area and into the northern Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northeastern California, southern Oregon, and the Snake River Plain of Idaho, while an exiting jet streak associated with a trough centered over Saskatchewan will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northern Montana. These elevated highlights are primarily confined to where the dry and windy conditions correspond to regions where wetting rainfall has not impacted fuels over the last several days. ...Pacific Northeast and the Snake River Plain... Portions of northeastern California into southwestern Oregon, as well as the eastern portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, are expected to have dry and windy conditions that overlap with receptive fuels. Some wetting rainfall has occurred over the last few days, but with recent lightning activity and some pockets of receptive fuels, some potential for wildfire spread exists with any previously existing fires and lightning ignitions. ...Northern Montana... Some uncertainty exists about the receptiveness of fuels over western portions of the highlight area due to recent wetting rainfall, but generally, 20-25 MPH winds and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overlap with pockets of receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Portions of the Great Basin and far southern Montana may see a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Given the uncertainty in precipitation efficiency, and recent wetting rainfall over much of the area, dry thunder highlights have been withheld at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The main change to this outlook was to add isolated dry thunderstorm highlights to portions of central and northern Utah. Thunderstorms from prior days may have tempered fuels to a degree. Nonetheless, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected later this afternoon and tonight, and some of these storms may pass over fuel beds that have experienced minimal rainfall. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with minor changes made to existing highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Two primary synoptic features will be responsible for bringing elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Northwest. A mid-level trough progressing eastward across the Bay Area and into the northern Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northeastern California, southern Oregon, and the Snake River Plain of Idaho, while an exiting jet streak associated with a trough centered over Saskatchewan will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northern Montana. These elevated highlights are primarily confined to where the dry and windy conditions correspond to regions where wetting rainfall has not impacted fuels over the last several days. ...Pacific Northeast and the Snake River Plain... Portions of northeastern California into southwestern Oregon, as well as the eastern portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, are expected to have dry and windy conditions that overlap with receptive fuels. Some wetting rainfall has occurred over the last few days, but with recent lightning activity and some pockets of receptive fuels, some potential for wildfire spread exists with any previously existing fires and lightning ignitions. ...Northern Montana... Some uncertainty exists about the receptiveness of fuels over western portions of the highlight area due to recent wetting rainfall, but generally, 20-25 MPH winds and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overlap with pockets of receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Portions of the Great Basin and far southern Montana may see a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Given the uncertainty in precipitation efficiency, and recent wetting rainfall over much of the area, dry thunder highlights have been withheld at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1133 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024 Valid 261700Z - 271200Z The main change to this outlook was to add isolated dry thunderstorm highlights to portions of central and northern Utah. Thunderstorms from prior days may have tempered fuels to a degree. Nonetheless, a mix of wet and dry thunderstorms are expected later this afternoon and tonight, and some of these storms may pass over fuel beds that have experienced minimal rainfall. Otherwise, the previous forecast (see below) remains on track, with minor changes made to existing highlights to reflect the latest guidance consensus. ..Squitieri.. 07/26/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0145 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024/ ...Synopsis... Two primary synoptic features will be responsible for bringing elevated fire weather conditions to portions of the Northwest. A mid-level trough progressing eastward across the Bay Area and into the northern Great Basin will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northeastern California, southern Oregon, and the Snake River Plain of Idaho, while an exiting jet streak associated with a trough centered over Saskatchewan will bring elevated fire weather conditions to portions of northern Montana. These elevated highlights are primarily confined to where the dry and windy conditions correspond to regions where wetting rainfall has not impacted fuels over the last several days. ...Pacific Northeast and the Snake River Plain... Portions of northeastern California into southwestern Oregon, as well as the eastern portions of the Snake River Plain in Idaho, are expected to have dry and windy conditions that overlap with receptive fuels. Some wetting rainfall has occurred over the last few days, but with recent lightning activity and some pockets of receptive fuels, some potential for wildfire spread exists with any previously existing fires and lightning ignitions. ...Northern Montana... Some uncertainty exists about the receptiveness of fuels over western portions of the highlight area due to recent wetting rainfall, but generally, 20-25 MPH winds and relative humidity values of 10-15% will overlap with pockets of receptive fuels. ...Dry Thunder... Portions of the Great Basin and far southern Montana may see a mix of dry and wet thunderstorms. Given the uncertainty in precipitation efficiency, and recent wetting rainfall over much of the area, dry thunder highlights have been withheld at this time. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more