Aggregator

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 271137
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Jul 27 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form by the middle of next
week a few hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of
this system, and a tropical depression could form during the middle
or latter part of next week. This system is forecast to move
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coast of
southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Western East Pacific:
Another area of low pressure could form by the middle of next week
well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
Peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible during
the middle and latter parts of next week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A ridge over the central CONUS will break down toward the middle of next week which will likely result in some severe weather from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Toward the end of the week and into next weekend, a strong upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS with somewhat lower severe weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Day4/Tue - Northern Plains to the Midwest... A broad reservoir of 70F dewpoints are expected to exist from the Canadian border into the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This will result in an extended corridor of very unstable conditions along and south of a frontal zone. Some moderate (30-35 knot) mid-level northwesterly flow is expected along this frontal zone. This pattern may support one or more severe MCSs on Tuesday. However, a lack of a focused/strong low-level jet and weak, mesoscale, mid-level shortwave troughs make predictability challenging at this range. Therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time. ...D5/Wed - Midwest to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians... A diffuse frontal zone with strong instability will likely exist from the Midwest to Ohio Valley and central Appalachians on Wednesday. Some threat for severe MCS development will be likely across this corridor, but the lack of a clear forcing mechanism precludes probabilities at this time. The upper-level ridge centered across the central CONUS will start to break down Wednesday night. This should result in moderate forcing for ascent amid a very unstable airmass. Therefore, some overnight severe weather threat may exist in the Upper Midwest, particularly across southern Minnesota where there is moderate agreement between the GFS and ECMWF for the best upper-level forcing. If this ridge break down can occur 6-12 hours earlier and the stronger forcing could coincide with peak heating, a greater severe weather threat may evolve across portions of the Upper Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A ridge over the central CONUS will break down toward the middle of next week which will likely result in some severe weather from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Toward the end of the week and into next weekend, a strong upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS with somewhat lower severe weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Day4/Tue - Northern Plains to the Midwest... A broad reservoir of 70F dewpoints are expected to exist from the Canadian border into the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This will result in an extended corridor of very unstable conditions along and south of a frontal zone. Some moderate (30-35 knot) mid-level northwesterly flow is expected along this frontal zone. This pattern may support one or more severe MCSs on Tuesday. However, a lack of a focused/strong low-level jet and weak, mesoscale, mid-level shortwave troughs make predictability challenging at this range. Therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time. ...D5/Wed - Midwest to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians... A diffuse frontal zone with strong instability will likely exist from the Midwest to Ohio Valley and central Appalachians on Wednesday. Some threat for severe MCS development will be likely across this corridor, but the lack of a clear forcing mechanism precludes probabilities at this time. The upper-level ridge centered across the central CONUS will start to break down Wednesday night. This should result in moderate forcing for ascent amid a very unstable airmass. Therefore, some overnight severe weather threat may exist in the Upper Midwest, particularly across southern Minnesota where there is moderate agreement between the GFS and ECMWF for the best upper-level forcing. If this ridge break down can occur 6-12 hours earlier and the stronger forcing could coincide with peak heating, a greater severe weather threat may evolve across portions of the Upper Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A ridge over the central CONUS will break down toward the middle of next week which will likely result in some severe weather from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Toward the end of the week and into next weekend, a strong upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS with somewhat lower severe weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Day4/Tue - Northern Plains to the Midwest... A broad reservoir of 70F dewpoints are expected to exist from the Canadian border into the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This will result in an extended corridor of very unstable conditions along and south of a frontal zone. Some moderate (30-35 knot) mid-level northwesterly flow is expected along this frontal zone. This pattern may support one or more severe MCSs on Tuesday. However, a lack of a focused/strong low-level jet and weak, mesoscale, mid-level shortwave troughs make predictability challenging at this range. Therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time. ...D5/Wed - Midwest to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians... A diffuse frontal zone with strong instability will likely exist from the Midwest to Ohio Valley and central Appalachians on Wednesday. Some threat for severe MCS development will be likely across this corridor, but the lack of a clear forcing mechanism precludes probabilities at this time. The upper-level ridge centered across the central CONUS will start to break down Wednesday night. This should result in moderate forcing for ascent amid a very unstable airmass. Therefore, some overnight severe weather threat may exist in the Upper Midwest, particularly across southern Minnesota where there is moderate agreement between the GFS and ECMWF for the best upper-level forcing. If this ridge break down can occur 6-12 hours earlier and the stronger forcing could coincide with peak heating, a greater severe weather threat may evolve across portions of the Upper Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A ridge over the central CONUS will break down toward the middle of next week which will likely result in some severe weather from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Toward the end of the week and into next weekend, a strong upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS with somewhat lower severe weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Day4/Tue - Northern Plains to the Midwest... A broad reservoir of 70F dewpoints are expected to exist from the Canadian border into the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This will result in an extended corridor of very unstable conditions along and south of a frontal zone. Some moderate (30-35 knot) mid-level northwesterly flow is expected along this frontal zone. This pattern may support one or more severe MCSs on Tuesday. However, a lack of a focused/strong low-level jet and weak, mesoscale, mid-level shortwave troughs make predictability challenging at this range. Therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time. ...D5/Wed - Midwest to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians... A diffuse frontal zone with strong instability will likely exist from the Midwest to Ohio Valley and central Appalachians on Wednesday. Some threat for severe MCS development will be likely across this corridor, but the lack of a clear forcing mechanism precludes probabilities at this time. The upper-level ridge centered across the central CONUS will start to break down Wednesday night. This should result in moderate forcing for ascent amid a very unstable airmass. Therefore, some overnight severe weather threat may exist in the Upper Midwest, particularly across southern Minnesota where there is moderate agreement between the GFS and ECMWF for the best upper-level forcing. If this ridge break down can occur 6-12 hours earlier and the stronger forcing could coincide with peak heating, a greater severe weather threat may evolve across portions of the Upper Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A ridge over the central CONUS will break down toward the middle of next week which will likely result in some severe weather from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Toward the end of the week and into next weekend, a strong upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS with somewhat lower severe weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Day4/Tue - Northern Plains to the Midwest... A broad reservoir of 70F dewpoints are expected to exist from the Canadian border into the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This will result in an extended corridor of very unstable conditions along and south of a frontal zone. Some moderate (30-35 knot) mid-level northwesterly flow is expected along this frontal zone. This pattern may support one or more severe MCSs on Tuesday. However, a lack of a focused/strong low-level jet and weak, mesoscale, mid-level shortwave troughs make predictability challenging at this range. Therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time. ...D5/Wed - Midwest to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians... A diffuse frontal zone with strong instability will likely exist from the Midwest to Ohio Valley and central Appalachians on Wednesday. Some threat for severe MCS development will be likely across this corridor, but the lack of a clear forcing mechanism precludes probabilities at this time. The upper-level ridge centered across the central CONUS will start to break down Wednesday night. This should result in moderate forcing for ascent amid a very unstable airmass. Therefore, some overnight severe weather threat may exist in the Upper Midwest, particularly across southern Minnesota where there is moderate agreement between the GFS and ECMWF for the best upper-level forcing. If this ridge break down can occur 6-12 hours earlier and the stronger forcing could coincide with peak heating, a greater severe weather threat may evolve across portions of the Upper Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A ridge over the central CONUS will break down toward the middle of next week which will likely result in some severe weather from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Toward the end of the week and into next weekend, a strong upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS with somewhat lower severe weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Day4/Tue - Northern Plains to the Midwest... A broad reservoir of 70F dewpoints are expected to exist from the Canadian border into the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This will result in an extended corridor of very unstable conditions along and south of a frontal zone. Some moderate (30-35 knot) mid-level northwesterly flow is expected along this frontal zone. This pattern may support one or more severe MCSs on Tuesday. However, a lack of a focused/strong low-level jet and weak, mesoscale, mid-level shortwave troughs make predictability challenging at this range. Therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time. ...D5/Wed - Midwest to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians... A diffuse frontal zone with strong instability will likely exist from the Midwest to Ohio Valley and central Appalachians on Wednesday. Some threat for severe MCS development will be likely across this corridor, but the lack of a clear forcing mechanism precludes probabilities at this time. The upper-level ridge centered across the central CONUS will start to break down Wednesday night. This should result in moderate forcing for ascent amid a very unstable airmass. Therefore, some overnight severe weather threat may exist in the Upper Midwest, particularly across southern Minnesota where there is moderate agreement between the GFS and ECMWF for the best upper-level forcing. If this ridge break down can occur 6-12 hours earlier and the stronger forcing could coincide with peak heating, a greater severe weather threat may evolve across portions of the Upper Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... A ridge over the central CONUS will break down toward the middle of next week which will likely result in some severe weather from the northern Plains to the Ohio Valley D4/Tuesday and D5/Wednesday. Toward the end of the week and into next weekend, a strong upper-level ridge will build across the western CONUS with somewhat lower severe weather concerns across the CONUS. ...Day4/Tue - Northern Plains to the Midwest... A broad reservoir of 70F dewpoints are expected to exist from the Canadian border into the Midwest and Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This will result in an extended corridor of very unstable conditions along and south of a frontal zone. Some moderate (30-35 knot) mid-level northwesterly flow is expected along this frontal zone. This pattern may support one or more severe MCSs on Tuesday. However, a lack of a focused/strong low-level jet and weak, mesoscale, mid-level shortwave troughs make predictability challenging at this range. Therefore, no probabilities are warranted at this time. ...D5/Wed - Midwest to the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians... A diffuse frontal zone with strong instability will likely exist from the Midwest to Ohio Valley and central Appalachians on Wednesday. Some threat for severe MCS development will be likely across this corridor, but the lack of a clear forcing mechanism precludes probabilities at this time. The upper-level ridge centered across the central CONUS will start to break down Wednesday night. This should result in moderate forcing for ascent amid a very unstable airmass. Therefore, some overnight severe weather threat may exist in the Upper Midwest, particularly across southern Minnesota where there is moderate agreement between the GFS and ECMWF for the best upper-level forcing. If this ridge break down can occur 6-12 hours earlier and the stronger forcing could coincide with peak heating, a greater severe weather threat may evolve across portions of the Upper Midwest. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible in portions of the Midwest on Monday. ...Synopsis... On Monday, a broad, low-amplitude ridge will be centered across the High Plains with a trough axis near the Pacific Coast and a trough across the Ohio Valley and the East Coast. As the East Coast upper-level low continues to retrograde during the day, these features will phase into one larger trough across the eastern CONUS. Several embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the northern CONUS and Canadian Prairies into the northwest flow across the Midwest. ...Midwest... Rich Gulf moisture will become well established across the Midwest by Monday with dewpoints in the mid 70s. This will result in a very unstable environment with MLCAPE 3000+ J/kg across portions of the Upper Mississippi River Basin. This strongly unstable environment will develop beneath 25 to 40 knots of mid-level flow which will provide ample shear for storm organization. However, despite a favorable severe weather parameter space that is expected within a broad zone across the Midwest, the details remain highly uncertain. Thunderstorms will be likely Monday morning given the strong low-level jet across Missouri and Iowa Sunday night. It is unclear whether this convection may simply stabilize portions of the risk area and lessen the severe weather threat, or if upscale growth can occur and persist into the late morning and if a severe MCS can develop from this activity and move southward along the Mississippi River vicinity. However, if this does not occur and substantial destabilization is able to occur farther north, the greatest severe weather threat may be focused near southeast Minnesota, southwest Wisconsin, eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. The GFS favors this scenario with suppression of southern convection and a mid-level shortwave trough moving through southern Minnesota Monday afternoon. However, the ECMWF has a stronger southern-stream trough Monday morning which aids in greater storm maintenance across Missouri and southern Illinois. These inconsistencies are likely tied to Day2/Sunday convection across the Plains and therefore, it may not be clear where the greatest threat is until closer to the Day 1 period. A broad marginal risk across the region with the most favorable environment seems like the most appropriate outlook until mesoscale details become more clear. ..Bentley.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible in portions of the Midwest on Monday. ...Synopsis... On Monday, a broad, low-amplitude ridge will be centered across the High Plains with a trough axis near the Pacific Coast and a trough across the Ohio Valley and the East Coast. As the East Coast upper-level low continues to retrograde during the day, these features will phase into one larger trough across the eastern CONUS. Several embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the northern CONUS and Canadian Prairies into the northwest flow across the Midwest. ...Midwest... Rich Gulf moisture will become well established across the Midwest by Monday with dewpoints in the mid 70s. This will result in a very unstable environment with MLCAPE 3000+ J/kg across portions of the Upper Mississippi River Basin. This strongly unstable environment will develop beneath 25 to 40 knots of mid-level flow which will provide ample shear for storm organization. However, despite a favorable severe weather parameter space that is expected within a broad zone across the Midwest, the details remain highly uncertain. Thunderstorms will be likely Monday morning given the strong low-level jet across Missouri and Iowa Sunday night. It is unclear whether this convection may simply stabilize portions of the risk area and lessen the severe weather threat, or if upscale growth can occur and persist into the late morning and if a severe MCS can develop from this activity and move southward along the Mississippi River vicinity. However, if this does not occur and substantial destabilization is able to occur farther north, the greatest severe weather threat may be focused near southeast Minnesota, southwest Wisconsin, eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. The GFS favors this scenario with suppression of southern convection and a mid-level shortwave trough moving through southern Minnesota Monday afternoon. However, the ECMWF has a stronger southern-stream trough Monday morning which aids in greater storm maintenance across Missouri and southern Illinois. These inconsistencies are likely tied to Day2/Sunday convection across the Plains and therefore, it may not be clear where the greatest threat is until closer to the Day 1 period. A broad marginal risk across the region with the most favorable environment seems like the most appropriate outlook until mesoscale details become more clear. ..Bentley.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible in portions of the Midwest on Monday. ...Synopsis... On Monday, a broad, low-amplitude ridge will be centered across the High Plains with a trough axis near the Pacific Coast and a trough across the Ohio Valley and the East Coast. As the East Coast upper-level low continues to retrograde during the day, these features will phase into one larger trough across the eastern CONUS. Several embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the northern CONUS and Canadian Prairies into the northwest flow across the Midwest. ...Midwest... Rich Gulf moisture will become well established across the Midwest by Monday with dewpoints in the mid 70s. This will result in a very unstable environment with MLCAPE 3000+ J/kg across portions of the Upper Mississippi River Basin. This strongly unstable environment will develop beneath 25 to 40 knots of mid-level flow which will provide ample shear for storm organization. However, despite a favorable severe weather parameter space that is expected within a broad zone across the Midwest, the details remain highly uncertain. Thunderstorms will be likely Monday morning given the strong low-level jet across Missouri and Iowa Sunday night. It is unclear whether this convection may simply stabilize portions of the risk area and lessen the severe weather threat, or if upscale growth can occur and persist into the late morning and if a severe MCS can develop from this activity and move southward along the Mississippi River vicinity. However, if this does not occur and substantial destabilization is able to occur farther north, the greatest severe weather threat may be focused near southeast Minnesota, southwest Wisconsin, eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. The GFS favors this scenario with suppression of southern convection and a mid-level shortwave trough moving through southern Minnesota Monday afternoon. However, the ECMWF has a stronger southern-stream trough Monday morning which aids in greater storm maintenance across Missouri and southern Illinois. These inconsistencies are likely tied to Day2/Sunday convection across the Plains and therefore, it may not be clear where the greatest threat is until closer to the Day 1 period. A broad marginal risk across the region with the most favorable environment seems like the most appropriate outlook until mesoscale details become more clear. ..Bentley.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible in portions of the Midwest on Monday. ...Synopsis... On Monday, a broad, low-amplitude ridge will be centered across the High Plains with a trough axis near the Pacific Coast and a trough across the Ohio Valley and the East Coast. As the East Coast upper-level low continues to retrograde during the day, these features will phase into one larger trough across the eastern CONUS. Several embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the northern CONUS and Canadian Prairies into the northwest flow across the Midwest. ...Midwest... Rich Gulf moisture will become well established across the Midwest by Monday with dewpoints in the mid 70s. This will result in a very unstable environment with MLCAPE 3000+ J/kg across portions of the Upper Mississippi River Basin. This strongly unstable environment will develop beneath 25 to 40 knots of mid-level flow which will provide ample shear for storm organization. However, despite a favorable severe weather parameter space that is expected within a broad zone across the Midwest, the details remain highly uncertain. Thunderstorms will be likely Monday morning given the strong low-level jet across Missouri and Iowa Sunday night. It is unclear whether this convection may simply stabilize portions of the risk area and lessen the severe weather threat, or if upscale growth can occur and persist into the late morning and if a severe MCS can develop from this activity and move southward along the Mississippi River vicinity. However, if this does not occur and substantial destabilization is able to occur farther north, the greatest severe weather threat may be focused near southeast Minnesota, southwest Wisconsin, eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. The GFS favors this scenario with suppression of southern convection and a mid-level shortwave trough moving through southern Minnesota Monday afternoon. However, the ECMWF has a stronger southern-stream trough Monday morning which aids in greater storm maintenance across Missouri and southern Illinois. These inconsistencies are likely tied to Day2/Sunday convection across the Plains and therefore, it may not be clear where the greatest threat is until closer to the Day 1 period. A broad marginal risk across the region with the most favorable environment seems like the most appropriate outlook until mesoscale details become more clear. ..Bentley.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible in portions of the Midwest on Monday. ...Synopsis... On Monday, a broad, low-amplitude ridge will be centered across the High Plains with a trough axis near the Pacific Coast and a trough across the Ohio Valley and the East Coast. As the East Coast upper-level low continues to retrograde during the day, these features will phase into one larger trough across the eastern CONUS. Several embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the northern CONUS and Canadian Prairies into the northwest flow across the Midwest. ...Midwest... Rich Gulf moisture will become well established across the Midwest by Monday with dewpoints in the mid 70s. This will result in a very unstable environment with MLCAPE 3000+ J/kg across portions of the Upper Mississippi River Basin. This strongly unstable environment will develop beneath 25 to 40 knots of mid-level flow which will provide ample shear for storm organization. However, despite a favorable severe weather parameter space that is expected within a broad zone across the Midwest, the details remain highly uncertain. Thunderstorms will be likely Monday morning given the strong low-level jet across Missouri and Iowa Sunday night. It is unclear whether this convection may simply stabilize portions of the risk area and lessen the severe weather threat, or if upscale growth can occur and persist into the late morning and if a severe MCS can develop from this activity and move southward along the Mississippi River vicinity. However, if this does not occur and substantial destabilization is able to occur farther north, the greatest severe weather threat may be focused near southeast Minnesota, southwest Wisconsin, eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. The GFS favors this scenario with suppression of southern convection and a mid-level shortwave trough moving through southern Minnesota Monday afternoon. However, the ECMWF has a stronger southern-stream trough Monday morning which aids in greater storm maintenance across Missouri and southern Illinois. These inconsistencies are likely tied to Day2/Sunday convection across the Plains and therefore, it may not be clear where the greatest threat is until closer to the Day 1 period. A broad marginal risk across the region with the most favorable environment seems like the most appropriate outlook until mesoscale details become more clear. ..Bentley.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0219 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WESTERN WISCONSIN TO THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible in portions of the Midwest on Monday. ...Synopsis... On Monday, a broad, low-amplitude ridge will be centered across the High Plains with a trough axis near the Pacific Coast and a trough across the Ohio Valley and the East Coast. As the East Coast upper-level low continues to retrograde during the day, these features will phase into one larger trough across the eastern CONUS. Several embedded mid-level shortwave troughs will traverse the northern CONUS and Canadian Prairies into the northwest flow across the Midwest. ...Midwest... Rich Gulf moisture will become well established across the Midwest by Monday with dewpoints in the mid 70s. This will result in a very unstable environment with MLCAPE 3000+ J/kg across portions of the Upper Mississippi River Basin. This strongly unstable environment will develop beneath 25 to 40 knots of mid-level flow which will provide ample shear for storm organization. However, despite a favorable severe weather parameter space that is expected within a broad zone across the Midwest, the details remain highly uncertain. Thunderstorms will be likely Monday morning given the strong low-level jet across Missouri and Iowa Sunday night. It is unclear whether this convection may simply stabilize portions of the risk area and lessen the severe weather threat, or if upscale growth can occur and persist into the late morning and if a severe MCS can develop from this activity and move southward along the Mississippi River vicinity. However, if this does not occur and substantial destabilization is able to occur farther north, the greatest severe weather threat may be focused near southeast Minnesota, southwest Wisconsin, eastern Iowa and northwest Illinois. The GFS favors this scenario with suppression of southern convection and a mid-level shortwave trough moving through southern Minnesota Monday afternoon. However, the ECMWF has a stronger southern-stream trough Monday morning which aids in greater storm maintenance across Missouri and southern Illinois. These inconsistencies are likely tied to Day2/Sunday convection across the Plains and therefore, it may not be clear where the greatest threat is until closer to the Day 1 period. A broad marginal risk across the region with the most favorable environment seems like the most appropriate outlook until mesoscale details become more clear. ..Bentley.. 07/27/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Broad west-southwesterly mid-level flow will continue to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of southern Nevada and southwestern Utah, into northwestern Colorado and southern Wyoming. Additionally, a mid-level shortwave trough moving across northern Idaho and Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to western Montana and into far northwestern Wyoming. ...Dry Thunder... Cold temperatures aloft and forcing for ascent from a mid-level trough moving across northern Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunder to much of western Montana, where fuels are receptive to lightning-based ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Dry and Windy... Dry and windy conditions will persist across the Great Basin on Sunday, where meteorological conditions will locally reach Critical criteria. Current fuel guidance suggests less than ideal conditions for wildfire ignitions, precluding the introduction of Critical highlights at this time. However, the dry and windy conditions of the previous day could result in some fuel recovery and will continue to be monitored. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Broad west-southwesterly mid-level flow will continue to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of southern Nevada and southwestern Utah, into northwestern Colorado and southern Wyoming. Additionally, a mid-level shortwave trough moving across northern Idaho and Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to western Montana and into far northwestern Wyoming. ...Dry Thunder... Cold temperatures aloft and forcing for ascent from a mid-level trough moving across northern Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunder to much of western Montana, where fuels are receptive to lightning-based ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Dry and Windy... Dry and windy conditions will persist across the Great Basin on Sunday, where meteorological conditions will locally reach Critical criteria. Current fuel guidance suggests less than ideal conditions for wildfire ignitions, precluding the introduction of Critical highlights at this time. However, the dry and windy conditions of the previous day could result in some fuel recovery and will continue to be monitored. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Broad west-southwesterly mid-level flow will continue to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of southern Nevada and southwestern Utah, into northwestern Colorado and southern Wyoming. Additionally, a mid-level shortwave trough moving across northern Idaho and Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to western Montana and into far northwestern Wyoming. ...Dry Thunder... Cold temperatures aloft and forcing for ascent from a mid-level trough moving across northern Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunder to much of western Montana, where fuels are receptive to lightning-based ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Dry and Windy... Dry and windy conditions will persist across the Great Basin on Sunday, where meteorological conditions will locally reach Critical criteria. Current fuel guidance suggests less than ideal conditions for wildfire ignitions, precluding the introduction of Critical highlights at this time. However, the dry and windy conditions of the previous day could result in some fuel recovery and will continue to be monitored. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Broad west-southwesterly mid-level flow will continue to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of southern Nevada and southwestern Utah, into northwestern Colorado and southern Wyoming. Additionally, a mid-level shortwave trough moving across northern Idaho and Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to western Montana and into far northwestern Wyoming. ...Dry Thunder... Cold temperatures aloft and forcing for ascent from a mid-level trough moving across northern Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunder to much of western Montana, where fuels are receptive to lightning-based ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Dry and Windy... Dry and windy conditions will persist across the Great Basin on Sunday, where meteorological conditions will locally reach Critical criteria. Current fuel guidance suggests less than ideal conditions for wildfire ignitions, precluding the introduction of Critical highlights at this time. However, the dry and windy conditions of the previous day could result in some fuel recovery and will continue to be monitored. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Broad west-southwesterly mid-level flow will continue to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of southern Nevada and southwestern Utah, into northwestern Colorado and southern Wyoming. Additionally, a mid-level shortwave trough moving across northern Idaho and Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to western Montana and into far northwestern Wyoming. ...Dry Thunder... Cold temperatures aloft and forcing for ascent from a mid-level trough moving across northern Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunder to much of western Montana, where fuels are receptive to lightning-based ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Dry and Windy... Dry and windy conditions will persist across the Great Basin on Sunday, where meteorological conditions will locally reach Critical criteria. Current fuel guidance suggests less than ideal conditions for wildfire ignitions, precluding the introduction of Critical highlights at this time. However, the dry and windy conditions of the previous day could result in some fuel recovery and will continue to be monitored. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Jul 27 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... Broad west-southwesterly mid-level flow will continue to bring dry and windy conditions to portions of southern Nevada and southwestern Utah, into northwestern Colorado and southern Wyoming. Additionally, a mid-level shortwave trough moving across northern Idaho and Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunderstorms to western Montana and into far northwestern Wyoming. ...Dry Thunder... Cold temperatures aloft and forcing for ascent from a mid-level trough moving across northern Montana will bring chances for isolated dry thunder to much of western Montana, where fuels are receptive to lightning-based ignitions and wildfire spread. ...Dry and Windy... Dry and windy conditions will persist across the Great Basin on Sunday, where meteorological conditions will locally reach Critical criteria. Current fuel guidance suggests less than ideal conditions for wildfire ignitions, precluding the introduction of Critical highlights at this time. However, the dry and windy conditions of the previous day could result in some fuel recovery and will continue to be monitored. ..Halbert/Weinman.. 07/27/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more