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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and northern Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...South Dakota/Minnesota... At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon initially across parts of western/central South Dakota, in areas near/north of the front and in the vicinity of the surface low. Mid-level flow of 30-40 kt atop low-level easterlies will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and a couple of supercells will be possible initially. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be a threat with the initial discrete development. Outflow consolidation could support development of an upscale-growing cluster by early evening, which may accelerate east-southeastward toward southeast South Dakota and the broader Siouxland vicinity, with a threat of severe gusts potentially exceeding 75 mph. Farther northeast across Minnesota, scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop by late afternoon near the effective front. Outside of some residual MCV enhancement, a notable weakness in mid-level flow, especially into northern Minnesota, will tend to limit deep-layer shear and storm organization across the region. That said, moderate buoyancy and a modest enhancement to low-level flow could support localized damaging winds, and perhaps an instance or two of hail with the strongest updrafts. ...Central High Plains... While large-scale forcing/ascent will be somewhat weaker with southward extent, strong heating and removal of MLCINH will support at least isolated storm development from western/central Nebraska into western Kansas, and possibly northeast Colorado in vicinity of a surface trough. Moderate to strong buoyancy, steep lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer shear will support a conditional risk of severe storms (potentially including a couple of supercells) with any diurnal development in this region. Overall storm coverage remains a bit uncertain, but the environment will conditionally support potential for both severe wind gusts and hail. ...Eastern Nebraska and Iowa/northern Missouri... An MCV across east-central Nebraska around sunrise should continue slowly eastward and generally weaken today. This MCV, along with a modest low-level jet and semi-persistent warm/moist advection, may influence intensifying thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moderately unstable environment across Iowa/northern Missouri. Even if consequential diurnal development does not occur, an increasing low-level jet could support increasing storm coverage across parts of the region later this evening into the overnight, which could be accompanied by a threat for isolated strong/damaging gusts and/or hail. ...Wyoming/Southern Montana... Relatively high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon in advance of a shortwave trough moving eastward out of the Pacific Northwest. A couple of stronger outflow-driven cells/clusters will be possible, with an attendant threat for isolated severe gusts. ...Tennessee Valley including portions of MS/AL/TN... Rather widespread convection is expected to further increase into the afternoon in association with a mid/upper-level trough moving northeastward out of the Ozarks vicinity. Somewhat stronger heating and mid-level flow along the southern periphery of this trough could support a few strong storms including the possibility of localized tree damage. However, with generally modest deep-layer shear and weak mid-level lapse rates, the potential for any organized or sustained severe threat across this region should be limited. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/28/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 281131
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Jul 28 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of Guatemala and the southern coast of Mexico
is associated with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form during the middle part of the week. The system
is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next several days, remaining offshore of the southern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Western East Pacific:
An area of low pressure could form by the middle of the week well to
the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula.
Some slow development of this system is possible during the middle
and latter parts of the week while it moves westward to
west-northwestward across the western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
Another area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of
Central America and southern Mexico towards the end of the week.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while
it moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A broad, low-amplitude mid-level ridge is expected to break down on Day4/Wednesday and Day5/Thursday. This may result in some severe weather across portions of the Midwest. Late this week and into the weekend, ridging will amplify across the western CONUS. Depending on the exact evolution of the building upper-level trough, some severe weather threat may persist across the northern Plains. However, an area of high pressure is expected to move south out of Canada over the weekend and scour the higher quality moisture which should result in less instability than early this week. ...D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Midwest... Uncertainties remain in the exact evolution of the upper-level ridge breakdown on Wednesday and Thursday which may significantly impact the location and intensity of any severe weather threat. A reservoir of strong instability and steep lapse rates is expected in the Midwest/Upper Midwest with increasing mid-level flow across the region. Where storms develop within this environment, severe weather is likely. However, aforementioned uncertainties preclude the need for severe weather probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A broad, low-amplitude mid-level ridge is expected to break down on Day4/Wednesday and Day5/Thursday. This may result in some severe weather across portions of the Midwest. Late this week and into the weekend, ridging will amplify across the western CONUS. Depending on the exact evolution of the building upper-level trough, some severe weather threat may persist across the northern Plains. However, an area of high pressure is expected to move south out of Canada over the weekend and scour the higher quality moisture which should result in less instability than early this week. ...D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Midwest... Uncertainties remain in the exact evolution of the upper-level ridge breakdown on Wednesday and Thursday which may significantly impact the location and intensity of any severe weather threat. A reservoir of strong instability and steep lapse rates is expected in the Midwest/Upper Midwest with increasing mid-level flow across the region. Where storms develop within this environment, severe weather is likely. However, aforementioned uncertainties preclude the need for severe weather probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A broad, low-amplitude mid-level ridge is expected to break down on Day4/Wednesday and Day5/Thursday. This may result in some severe weather across portions of the Midwest. Late this week and into the weekend, ridging will amplify across the western CONUS. Depending on the exact evolution of the building upper-level trough, some severe weather threat may persist across the northern Plains. However, an area of high pressure is expected to move south out of Canada over the weekend and scour the higher quality moisture which should result in less instability than early this week. ...D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Midwest... Uncertainties remain in the exact evolution of the upper-level ridge breakdown on Wednesday and Thursday which may significantly impact the location and intensity of any severe weather threat. A reservoir of strong instability and steep lapse rates is expected in the Midwest/Upper Midwest with increasing mid-level flow across the region. Where storms develop within this environment, severe weather is likely. However, aforementioned uncertainties preclude the need for severe weather probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A broad, low-amplitude mid-level ridge is expected to break down on Day4/Wednesday and Day5/Thursday. This may result in some severe weather across portions of the Midwest. Late this week and into the weekend, ridging will amplify across the western CONUS. Depending on the exact evolution of the building upper-level trough, some severe weather threat may persist across the northern Plains. However, an area of high pressure is expected to move south out of Canada over the weekend and scour the higher quality moisture which should result in less instability than early this week. ...D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Midwest... Uncertainties remain in the exact evolution of the upper-level ridge breakdown on Wednesday and Thursday which may significantly impact the location and intensity of any severe weather threat. A reservoir of strong instability and steep lapse rates is expected in the Midwest/Upper Midwest with increasing mid-level flow across the region. Where storms develop within this environment, severe weather is likely. However, aforementioned uncertainties preclude the need for severe weather probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A broad, low-amplitude mid-level ridge is expected to break down on Day4/Wednesday and Day5/Thursday. This may result in some severe weather across portions of the Midwest. Late this week and into the weekend, ridging will amplify across the western CONUS. Depending on the exact evolution of the building upper-level trough, some severe weather threat may persist across the northern Plains. However, an area of high pressure is expected to move south out of Canada over the weekend and scour the higher quality moisture which should result in less instability than early this week. ...D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Midwest... Uncertainties remain in the exact evolution of the upper-level ridge breakdown on Wednesday and Thursday which may significantly impact the location and intensity of any severe weather threat. A reservoir of strong instability and steep lapse rates is expected in the Midwest/Upper Midwest with increasing mid-level flow across the region. Where storms develop within this environment, severe weather is likely. However, aforementioned uncertainties preclude the need for severe weather probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 311200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A broad, low-amplitude mid-level ridge is expected to break down on Day4/Wednesday and Day5/Thursday. This may result in some severe weather across portions of the Midwest. Late this week and into the weekend, ridging will amplify across the western CONUS. Depending on the exact evolution of the building upper-level trough, some severe weather threat may persist across the northern Plains. However, an area of high pressure is expected to move south out of Canada over the weekend and scour the higher quality moisture which should result in less instability than early this week. ...D4/Wednesday and D5/Thursday - Midwest... Uncertainties remain in the exact evolution of the upper-level ridge breakdown on Wednesday and Thursday which may significantly impact the location and intensity of any severe weather threat. A reservoir of strong instability and steep lapse rates is expected in the Midwest/Upper Midwest with increasing mid-level flow across the region. Where storms develop within this environment, severe weather is likely. However, aforementioned uncertainties preclude the need for severe weather probabilities at this time. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across a broad region from the northern Plains to the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... Tuesday morning, a low-amplitude mid-level ridge will be centered across the central CONUS with a trough across the western and eastern CONUS. This pattern will shift east through the day Tuesday and into Tuesday night. Beneath the ridge, a very moist airmass will be present with mid 70s to near 80 dewpoints extending from the Gulf of Mexico to the Upper Midwest. This will result in a large region of strong instability along and south of a stationary front which will extend from the Dakotas to the Midwest. This front may serve as a focus for multiple rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. ...Northern Plains... As the upper-level ridge shifts east on Tuesday, the surface lee trough will strengthen across the Plains. Some height falls/embedded shortwave troughs are expected to overspread the Dakotas on Tuesday afternoon. This may be sufficient forcing for scattered thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon/evening. Mid-level westerly flow around 25 to 30 knots combined with southerly/southeasterly flow will provide ample shear for storm organization including the potential for supercells. Eventual upscale growth into an MCS is possible as the low-level jet strengthens across the northern Plains after sunset. Instability may be somewhat lacking during the day given the well mixed airmass and better low-level moisture farther east. However, low level moisture is expected to increase through the day and storms may move into this more moist and unstable airmass during the evening. ...Midwest into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... On Tuesday, a favorable MCS pattern will set up across the Corn Belt and into the Tennessee Valley. A very moist airmass will be in place (surface dewpoints near 80F) along a frontal zone, with moderate (35-40 knot) mid-level flow parallel to this front. Details remain uncertain at this time and storm coverage remains conditional given height rises across the region. Mesoscale details may warrant higher probabilities in later outlooks, but uncertainty is too high at this time for more than a Marginal (1/5) Risk. ..Bentley.. 07/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across a broad region from the northern Plains to the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... Tuesday morning, a low-amplitude mid-level ridge will be centered across the central CONUS with a trough across the western and eastern CONUS. This pattern will shift east through the day Tuesday and into Tuesday night. Beneath the ridge, a very moist airmass will be present with mid 70s to near 80 dewpoints extending from the Gulf of Mexico to the Upper Midwest. This will result in a large region of strong instability along and south of a stationary front which will extend from the Dakotas to the Midwest. This front may serve as a focus for multiple rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. ...Northern Plains... As the upper-level ridge shifts east on Tuesday, the surface lee trough will strengthen across the Plains. Some height falls/embedded shortwave troughs are expected to overspread the Dakotas on Tuesday afternoon. This may be sufficient forcing for scattered thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon/evening. Mid-level westerly flow around 25 to 30 knots combined with southerly/southeasterly flow will provide ample shear for storm organization including the potential for supercells. Eventual upscale growth into an MCS is possible as the low-level jet strengthens across the northern Plains after sunset. Instability may be somewhat lacking during the day given the well mixed airmass and better low-level moisture farther east. However, low level moisture is expected to increase through the day and storms may move into this more moist and unstable airmass during the evening. ...Midwest into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... On Tuesday, a favorable MCS pattern will set up across the Corn Belt and into the Tennessee Valley. A very moist airmass will be in place (surface dewpoints near 80F) along a frontal zone, with moderate (35-40 knot) mid-level flow parallel to this front. Details remain uncertain at this time and storm coverage remains conditional given height rises across the region. Mesoscale details may warrant higher probabilities in later outlooks, but uncertainty is too high at this time for more than a Marginal (1/5) Risk. ..Bentley.. 07/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across a broad region from the northern Plains to the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... Tuesday morning, a low-amplitude mid-level ridge will be centered across the central CONUS with a trough across the western and eastern CONUS. This pattern will shift east through the day Tuesday and into Tuesday night. Beneath the ridge, a very moist airmass will be present with mid 70s to near 80 dewpoints extending from the Gulf of Mexico to the Upper Midwest. This will result in a large region of strong instability along and south of a stationary front which will extend from the Dakotas to the Midwest. This front may serve as a focus for multiple rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. ...Northern Plains... As the upper-level ridge shifts east on Tuesday, the surface lee trough will strengthen across the Plains. Some height falls/embedded shortwave troughs are expected to overspread the Dakotas on Tuesday afternoon. This may be sufficient forcing for scattered thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon/evening. Mid-level westerly flow around 25 to 30 knots combined with southerly/southeasterly flow will provide ample shear for storm organization including the potential for supercells. Eventual upscale growth into an MCS is possible as the low-level jet strengthens across the northern Plains after sunset. Instability may be somewhat lacking during the day given the well mixed airmass and better low-level moisture farther east. However, low level moisture is expected to increase through the day and storms may move into this more moist and unstable airmass during the evening. ...Midwest into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... On Tuesday, a favorable MCS pattern will set up across the Corn Belt and into the Tennessee Valley. A very moist airmass will be in place (surface dewpoints near 80F) along a frontal zone, with moderate (35-40 knot) mid-level flow parallel to this front. Details remain uncertain at this time and storm coverage remains conditional given height rises across the region. Mesoscale details may warrant higher probabilities in later outlooks, but uncertainty is too high at this time for more than a Marginal (1/5) Risk. ..Bentley.. 07/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across a broad region from the northern Plains to the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... Tuesday morning, a low-amplitude mid-level ridge will be centered across the central CONUS with a trough across the western and eastern CONUS. This pattern will shift east through the day Tuesday and into Tuesday night. Beneath the ridge, a very moist airmass will be present with mid 70s to near 80 dewpoints extending from the Gulf of Mexico to the Upper Midwest. This will result in a large region of strong instability along and south of a stationary front which will extend from the Dakotas to the Midwest. This front may serve as a focus for multiple rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. ...Northern Plains... As the upper-level ridge shifts east on Tuesday, the surface lee trough will strengthen across the Plains. Some height falls/embedded shortwave troughs are expected to overspread the Dakotas on Tuesday afternoon. This may be sufficient forcing for scattered thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon/evening. Mid-level westerly flow around 25 to 30 knots combined with southerly/southeasterly flow will provide ample shear for storm organization including the potential for supercells. Eventual upscale growth into an MCS is possible as the low-level jet strengthens across the northern Plains after sunset. Instability may be somewhat lacking during the day given the well mixed airmass and better low-level moisture farther east. However, low level moisture is expected to increase through the day and storms may move into this more moist and unstable airmass during the evening. ...Midwest into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... On Tuesday, a favorable MCS pattern will set up across the Corn Belt and into the Tennessee Valley. A very moist airmass will be in place (surface dewpoints near 80F) along a frontal zone, with moderate (35-40 knot) mid-level flow parallel to this front. Details remain uncertain at this time and storm coverage remains conditional given height rises across the region. Mesoscale details may warrant higher probabilities in later outlooks, but uncertainty is too high at this time for more than a Marginal (1/5) Risk. ..Bentley.. 07/28/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST...OHIO VALLEY...AND TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms will be possible across a broad region from the northern Plains to the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley. ...Synopsis... Tuesday morning, a low-amplitude mid-level ridge will be centered across the central CONUS with a trough across the western and eastern CONUS. This pattern will shift east through the day Tuesday and into Tuesday night. Beneath the ridge, a very moist airmass will be present with mid 70s to near 80 dewpoints extending from the Gulf of Mexico to the Upper Midwest. This will result in a large region of strong instability along and south of a stationary front which will extend from the Dakotas to the Midwest. This front may serve as a focus for multiple rounds of severe storms on Tuesday. ...Northern Plains... As the upper-level ridge shifts east on Tuesday, the surface lee trough will strengthen across the Plains. Some height falls/embedded shortwave troughs are expected to overspread the Dakotas on Tuesday afternoon. This may be sufficient forcing for scattered thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon/evening. Mid-level westerly flow around 25 to 30 knots combined with southerly/southeasterly flow will provide ample shear for storm organization including the potential for supercells. Eventual upscale growth into an MCS is possible as the low-level jet strengthens across the northern Plains after sunset. Instability may be somewhat lacking during the day given the well mixed airmass and better low-level moisture farther east. However, low level moisture is expected to increase through the day and storms may move into this more moist and unstable airmass during the evening. ...Midwest into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys... On Tuesday, a favorable MCS pattern will set up across the Corn Belt and into the Tennessee Valley. A very moist airmass will be in place (surface dewpoints near 80F) along a frontal zone, with moderate (35-40 knot) mid-level flow parallel to this front. Details remain uncertain at this time and storm coverage remains conditional given height rises across the region. Mesoscale details may warrant higher probabilities in later outlooks, but uncertainty is too high at this time for more than a Marginal (1/5) Risk. ..Bentley.. 07/28/2024 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the Northwest, moderate midlevel flow will persist across portions of the central Great Basin. Boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will support locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of southern/central UT -- where locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, these conditions appear too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. Ahead of the large-scale trough, an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out across the northern Rockies. However, confidence in any more than this is too low for Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the Northwest, moderate midlevel flow will persist across portions of the central Great Basin. Boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will support locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of southern/central UT -- where locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, these conditions appear too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. Ahead of the large-scale trough, an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out across the northern Rockies. However, confidence in any more than this is too low for Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the Northwest, moderate midlevel flow will persist across portions of the central Great Basin. Boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will support locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of southern/central UT -- where locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, these conditions appear too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. Ahead of the large-scale trough, an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out across the northern Rockies. However, confidence in any more than this is too low for Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the Northwest, moderate midlevel flow will persist across portions of the central Great Basin. Boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will support locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of southern/central UT -- where locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, these conditions appear too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. Ahead of the large-scale trough, an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out across the northern Rockies. However, confidence in any more than this is too low for Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0201 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...Synopsis... Within the base of a broad large-scale trough over the Northwest, moderate midlevel flow will persist across portions of the central Great Basin. Boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft will support locally dry/breezy conditions across portions of southern/central UT -- where locally elevated fire-weather conditions are possible. However, these conditions appear too localized for Elevated highlights at this time. Ahead of the large-scale trough, an isolated thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out across the northern Rockies. However, confidence in any more than this is too low for Dry Thunderstorm highlights at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains today, while a large-scale ridge remains centered over the southern Rockies/Southwest. Between these two features, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel flow will overspread the Central Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... Ample diurnal heating from southern NV east-northeastward across southern/central UT into south-central WY will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft. As a result, 5-10 percent minimum RH will overlap 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds during the afternoon. Given modestly receptive fuels through this corridor, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains... Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel shortwave trough will intercept a midlevel moisture plume, favoring isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms from the afternoon into the evening. 0.5-0.75 inch PW and quick storm motions will contribute to mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. Strong/erratic outflow winds could also accompany this activity. ..Weinman.. 07/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0200 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains today, while a large-scale ridge remains centered over the southern Rockies/Southwest. Between these two features, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel flow will overspread the Central Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... Ample diurnal heating from southern NV east-northeastward across southern/central UT into south-central WY will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft. As a result, 5-10 percent minimum RH will overlap 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds during the afternoon. Given modestly receptive fuels through this corridor, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains... Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel shortwave trough will intercept a midlevel moisture plume, favoring isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms from the afternoon into the evening. 0.5-0.75 inch PW and quick storm motions will contribute to mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. Strong/erratic outflow winds could also accompany this activity. ..Weinman.. 07/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more