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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight for parts of the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Large hail and severe/damaging winds are expected be the main threats. ...Parts of SD/NE/KS... Storms have generally remained rather isolated this afternoon and early evening from parts of SD into southwest NE/northwest KS. However, a conditionally favorable environment for organized storms will persist across the region through much of tonight, despite gradually increasing MLCINH. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt will support a continued threat of isolated supercells this evening, with continued potential for hail and localized severe gusts. It remains possible that the cluster of storms across western SD could undergo modest upscale growth and propagate east-southeastward tonight with a more organized severe wind threat. However, this scenario continues to be uncertain, given increasing MLCINH and the lack of stronger low-level flow (with the primary low-level jet displaced well to the southeast). Farther south, some increase in storm coverage remains possible across parts of NE into northwest KS through mid evening, before MLCINH becomes increasingly prohibitive later tonight. Any stronger cells/clusters in this region would pose some risk of hail and strong to severe gusts. ...IA/MO... A persistent cluster of storms associated with an MCV across northwest IA has remained subsevere thus far today, though some threat for locally damaging wind cannot be ruled out this evening in association with this cluster. Some further increase in storm coverage is possible with time tonight, as a low-level jet becomes focused into the region. While deep-layer will remain rather modest, there is some potential for a larger MCS to evolve out of the ongoing convection, which could eventually propagate southeastward into a moderately unstable environment across parts of southeast IA, northeast MO, and western IL, with some threat of isolated damaging gusts. ...MN... A few stronger storms remain possible across parts of MN, where moderate buoyancy persists this evening outside of areas already influenced by substantial convection. Rather weak deep-layer shear should tend to limit storm organization, but locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out before convection generally weakens later tonight. ..Dean.. 07/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight for parts of the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Large hail and severe/damaging winds are expected be the main threats. ...Parts of SD/NE/KS... Storms have generally remained rather isolated this afternoon and early evening from parts of SD into southwest NE/northwest KS. However, a conditionally favorable environment for organized storms will persist across the region through much of tonight, despite gradually increasing MLCINH. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt will support a continued threat of isolated supercells this evening, with continued potential for hail and localized severe gusts. It remains possible that the cluster of storms across western SD could undergo modest upscale growth and propagate east-southeastward tonight with a more organized severe wind threat. However, this scenario continues to be uncertain, given increasing MLCINH and the lack of stronger low-level flow (with the primary low-level jet displaced well to the southeast). Farther south, some increase in storm coverage remains possible across parts of NE into northwest KS through mid evening, before MLCINH becomes increasingly prohibitive later tonight. Any stronger cells/clusters in this region would pose some risk of hail and strong to severe gusts. ...IA/MO... A persistent cluster of storms associated with an MCV across northwest IA has remained subsevere thus far today, though some threat for locally damaging wind cannot be ruled out this evening in association with this cluster. Some further increase in storm coverage is possible with time tonight, as a low-level jet becomes focused into the region. While deep-layer will remain rather modest, there is some potential for a larger MCS to evolve out of the ongoing convection, which could eventually propagate southeastward into a moderately unstable environment across parts of southeast IA, northeast MO, and western IL, with some threat of isolated damaging gusts. ...MN... A few stronger storms remain possible across parts of MN, where moderate buoyancy persists this evening outside of areas already influenced by substantial convection. Rather weak deep-layer shear should tend to limit storm organization, but locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out before convection generally weakens later tonight. ..Dean.. 07/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight for parts of the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Large hail and severe/damaging winds are expected be the main threats. ...Parts of SD/NE/KS... Storms have generally remained rather isolated this afternoon and early evening from parts of SD into southwest NE/northwest KS. However, a conditionally favorable environment for organized storms will persist across the region through much of tonight, despite gradually increasing MLCINH. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt will support a continued threat of isolated supercells this evening, with continued potential for hail and localized severe gusts. It remains possible that the cluster of storms across western SD could undergo modest upscale growth and propagate east-southeastward tonight with a more organized severe wind threat. However, this scenario continues to be uncertain, given increasing MLCINH and the lack of stronger low-level flow (with the primary low-level jet displaced well to the southeast). Farther south, some increase in storm coverage remains possible across parts of NE into northwest KS through mid evening, before MLCINH becomes increasingly prohibitive later tonight. Any stronger cells/clusters in this region would pose some risk of hail and strong to severe gusts. ...IA/MO... A persistent cluster of storms associated with an MCV across northwest IA has remained subsevere thus far today, though some threat for locally damaging wind cannot be ruled out this evening in association with this cluster. Some further increase in storm coverage is possible with time tonight, as a low-level jet becomes focused into the region. While deep-layer will remain rather modest, there is some potential for a larger MCS to evolve out of the ongoing convection, which could eventually propagate southeastward into a moderately unstable environment across parts of southeast IA, northeast MO, and western IL, with some threat of isolated damaging gusts. ...MN... A few stronger storms remain possible across parts of MN, where moderate buoyancy persists this evening outside of areas already influenced by substantial convection. Rather weak deep-layer shear should tend to limit storm organization, but locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out before convection generally weakens later tonight. ..Dean.. 07/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0800 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 290100Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS INTO IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms remain possible tonight for parts of the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest. Large hail and severe/damaging winds are expected be the main threats. ...Parts of SD/NE/KS... Storms have generally remained rather isolated this afternoon and early evening from parts of SD into southwest NE/northwest KS. However, a conditionally favorable environment for organized storms will persist across the region through much of tonight, despite gradually increasing MLCINH. MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg and effective shear of 30-40 kt will support a continued threat of isolated supercells this evening, with continued potential for hail and localized severe gusts. It remains possible that the cluster of storms across western SD could undergo modest upscale growth and propagate east-southeastward tonight with a more organized severe wind threat. However, this scenario continues to be uncertain, given increasing MLCINH and the lack of stronger low-level flow (with the primary low-level jet displaced well to the southeast). Farther south, some increase in storm coverage remains possible across parts of NE into northwest KS through mid evening, before MLCINH becomes increasingly prohibitive later tonight. Any stronger cells/clusters in this region would pose some risk of hail and strong to severe gusts. ...IA/MO... A persistent cluster of storms associated with an MCV across northwest IA has remained subsevere thus far today, though some threat for locally damaging wind cannot be ruled out this evening in association with this cluster. Some further increase in storm coverage is possible with time tonight, as a low-level jet becomes focused into the region. While deep-layer will remain rather modest, there is some potential for a larger MCS to evolve out of the ongoing convection, which could eventually propagate southeastward into a moderately unstable environment across parts of southeast IA, northeast MO, and western IL, with some threat of isolated damaging gusts. ...MN... A few stronger storms remain possible across parts of MN, where moderate buoyancy persists this evening outside of areas already influenced by substantial convection. Rather weak deep-layer shear should tend to limit storm organization, but locally damaging gusts cannot be ruled out before convection generally weakens later tonight. ..Dean.. 07/29/2024 Read more

000
ABPZ20 KNHC 282314
TWOEP

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Jul 28 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southern Mexico:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located a few
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is associated
with a tropical wave. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the middle part of the week. The system is
forecast to move westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph
during the next several days, remaining offshore of the southern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Western East Pacific:
Another tropical wave located well to the southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is
possible during the middle and latter parts of the week while it
moves westward to west-northwestward at about 10 mph across the
western portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

South of Central America and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form offshore of the coast of Central
America and southern Mexico towards the end of the week. Some
gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while it
moves generally westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart

No watches are valid as of Sun Jul 28 22:46:02 UTC 2024.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Jul 28 22:46:02 UTC 2024.

MD 1721 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 1721 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Areas affected...Northwest to central Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 282049Z - 282245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorms associated with an MCV across the mid Missouri River Valley have shown some signs of intensification over the past half hour. Trends will continue to be monitored for the need for a watch at some point this afternoon/evening. DISCUSSION...Convection has been ongoing for much of the day across eastern NE as a residual MCV meanders across the mid-MO River Valley. Much of this activity has been driven by a combination of ascent associated with the MCV as well as modest warm air advection between 850-700 mb. Regional VWPs across eastern KS have shown some strengthening of the low-level flow within this warm advection regime, suggesting that lift is gradually increasing. Concurrently, daytime heating through broken cloud cover has allowed for temperatures to climb into the upper 80s across eastern NE into IA with a corresponding reduction in surface-based inhibition. Consequently, convection has shown some signs of intensification over the past 30 minutes, including weak mid-level rotation and periodic lightning jumps with the deeper, more intense updrafts. Given moderate SBCAPE and sufficient deep-layer shear, organized convection appears possible, but storm mode remains uncertain. More discrete cells developing on the southern periphery of the MCV (where warm advection ascent should be strongest) may pose a large hail threat before storm interactions promote gradual upscale growth - possibly into an organized cluster later this evening. More recent GOES one-minute imagery shows that the more intense updraft pulses remain somewhat short lived, possibly indicating that stronger forcing for ascent (in the form of an even stronger low-level jet this evening) will be required to fully realize the convective environment. Trends will continue to be monitored, and watch issuance is possible at some point later this afternoon/evening. ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 41639587 42319667 42609677 42789667 42929599 42929480 42889434 42729407 42509387 42299371 42119369 41829376 41629392 41459429 41439491 41489531 41589575 41639587 Read more

MD 1720 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH DAKOTA
Mesoscale Discussion 1720 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Areas affected...South Dakota Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 281931Z - 282230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage is beginning to increase across western to northern South Dakota with scattered strong to severe storms probable by late afternoon and early evening. Watch issuance is possible this afternoon, but timing is uncertain. DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery shows steady deepening of convection along a cold front draped from northeast to western SD as well as within the Black Hills. 19 UTC surface observations along and south of the front report temperatures in the low 90s - considerably warmer than anticipated by recent guidance by this time, which implies that boundary-layer mixing (and an accompanying erosion of MLCIN) is progressing more rapidly than expected. As such, the recent convective trends should continue with additional thunderstorm development probable in the coming hours. Although moisture quality degrades with westward extent, easterly low-level winds on the northern periphery of a surface low are elongating hodographs with effective bulk shear values approaching 30-40 knots. This will support a window for a supercell or two as initially discrete cells develop over the Black Hills and/or along the front across western SD. With time, a combination of storm motions largely along the front and a 1-2 km deep boundary layer with nearly dry adiabatic lapse rates will promote consolidating cold pools and upscale growth into one or more clusters as convection propagates to the east and into a more moist/buoyant air mass. An organized MCS may emerge out of this activity this evening with the potential for severe winds, possibly up to 75 mph. Somewhat weak synoptic-scale forcing for ascent casts some uncertainty onto overall storm coverage, which may favor more isolated cells with limited potential for upscale growth and a more localized severe threat. Convective trends will be monitored for the need for watch issuance this afternoon/evening. ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...UNR... LAT...LON 43550362 43860394 44210404 44410372 44570285 45150051 45280017 45419983 45459930 45429838 45359777 45279764 45069753 44829756 44459780 44219801 43939844 43689893 43509946 43419997 43330052 43270099 43280166 43270224 43420309 43550362 Read more

MD 1718 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHERN MONTANA
Mesoscale Discussion 1718 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Areas affected...Northern Wyoming into far southern Montana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 281855Z - 282100Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...Widely scattered thunderstorms developing across northern Wyoming and far southern Montana will be capable of sporadic severe wind gusts this afternoon and early evening. Watch issuance is not anticipated given the dispersed nature of the threat. DISCUSSION...Isolated and transient thunderstorms have been ongoing across parts of northern WY over the past 2-3 hours as terrain-driven convection slowly deepens. However, more recent visible imagery and lightning data show multiple deep updrafts developing within the Absaroka and Wind River ranges. This trend will likely persist as temperatures continue to warm into the mid/upper 80s in the coming hours and reduce any lingering MLCIN across the lower elevations to the east. Buoyancy will remain very modest (100-500 J/kg MLCAPE) given the dry environment, but nearly dry-adiabatic lapse rates through 2-3 km AGL should facilitate efficient downward transfer of stronger mid-level flow as well as bolster downdraft acceleration. Additionally, 40 knot winds within the CAPE-bearing layer may promote semi-organized cells and/or clusters. Severe wind gusts between 60-70 mph appear possible, but convective coverage is expected to remain isolated to widely scattered and should preclude watch issuance. ..Moore/Gleason.. 07/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...UNR...CYS...BYZ...RIW... LAT...LON 42730886 43050943 43570988 44251008 44691001 45030962 45510732 45750602 45660558 45430537 45170528 44850527 43240523 42730541 42560563 42470617 42570821 42730886 Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the northwestern U.S. on Day 3 (Tuesday) before upper ridging builds in and dominates the Interior West through the remainder of the week. A stray thunderstorm or two is possible over part of the northern Rockies on Tuesday with the passage of the trough. Though fuels are receptive to fire spread, thunderstorm coverage currently appears too sparse to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities. By the weekend (Days 7-8), a slight eastward shift of the upper ridge will encourage the northward return of mid-level monsoonal moisture across northern California into the Pacific Northwest (specifically areas east of the Cascades). Better chances for at least isolated dry thunderstorms exist with the northwestward return of moisture. However, forcing for ascent will be subtle, so it is unclear where and when thunderstorms may form, precluding dry thunderstorm probabilities this far in advance. Nonetheless, fuels are already critically receptive to fire ignitions and spread, with a preceding, prolonged period of warming/drying expected through the week. As such, lightning-induced ignition potential could be high should thunderstorms form next weekend. Dry thunderstorm probabilities will likely be introduced as soon as medium range guidance comes into consensus for thunderstorm occurrence. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the northwestern U.S. on Day 3 (Tuesday) before upper ridging builds in and dominates the Interior West through the remainder of the week. A stray thunderstorm or two is possible over part of the northern Rockies on Tuesday with the passage of the trough. Though fuels are receptive to fire spread, thunderstorm coverage currently appears too sparse to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities. By the weekend (Days 7-8), a slight eastward shift of the upper ridge will encourage the northward return of mid-level monsoonal moisture across northern California into the Pacific Northwest (specifically areas east of the Cascades). Better chances for at least isolated dry thunderstorms exist with the northwestward return of moisture. However, forcing for ascent will be subtle, so it is unclear where and when thunderstorms may form, precluding dry thunderstorm probabilities this far in advance. Nonetheless, fuels are already critically receptive to fire ignitions and spread, with a preceding, prolonged period of warming/drying expected through the week. As such, lightning-induced ignition potential could be high should thunderstorms form next weekend. Dry thunderstorm probabilities will likely be introduced as soon as medium range guidance comes into consensus for thunderstorm occurrence. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the northwestern U.S. on Day 3 (Tuesday) before upper ridging builds in and dominates the Interior West through the remainder of the week. A stray thunderstorm or two is possible over part of the northern Rockies on Tuesday with the passage of the trough. Though fuels are receptive to fire spread, thunderstorm coverage currently appears too sparse to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities. By the weekend (Days 7-8), a slight eastward shift of the upper ridge will encourage the northward return of mid-level monsoonal moisture across northern California into the Pacific Northwest (specifically areas east of the Cascades). Better chances for at least isolated dry thunderstorms exist with the northwestward return of moisture. However, forcing for ascent will be subtle, so it is unclear where and when thunderstorms may form, precluding dry thunderstorm probabilities this far in advance. Nonetheless, fuels are already critically receptive to fire ignitions and spread, with a preceding, prolonged period of warming/drying expected through the week. As such, lightning-induced ignition potential could be high should thunderstorms form next weekend. Dry thunderstorm probabilities will likely be introduced as soon as medium range guidance comes into consensus for thunderstorm occurrence. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the northwestern U.S. on Day 3 (Tuesday) before upper ridging builds in and dominates the Interior West through the remainder of the week. A stray thunderstorm or two is possible over part of the northern Rockies on Tuesday with the passage of the trough. Though fuels are receptive to fire spread, thunderstorm coverage currently appears too sparse to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities. By the weekend (Days 7-8), a slight eastward shift of the upper ridge will encourage the northward return of mid-level monsoonal moisture across northern California into the Pacific Northwest (specifically areas east of the Cascades). Better chances for at least isolated dry thunderstorms exist with the northwestward return of moisture. However, forcing for ascent will be subtle, so it is unclear where and when thunderstorms may form, precluding dry thunderstorm probabilities this far in advance. Nonetheless, fuels are already critically receptive to fire ignitions and spread, with a preceding, prolonged period of warming/drying expected through the week. As such, lightning-induced ignition potential could be high should thunderstorms form next weekend. Dry thunderstorm probabilities will likely be introduced as soon as medium range guidance comes into consensus for thunderstorm occurrence. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the northwestern U.S. on Day 3 (Tuesday) before upper ridging builds in and dominates the Interior West through the remainder of the week. A stray thunderstorm or two is possible over part of the northern Rockies on Tuesday with the passage of the trough. Though fuels are receptive to fire spread, thunderstorm coverage currently appears too sparse to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities. By the weekend (Days 7-8), a slight eastward shift of the upper ridge will encourage the northward return of mid-level monsoonal moisture across northern California into the Pacific Northwest (specifically areas east of the Cascades). Better chances for at least isolated dry thunderstorms exist with the northwestward return of moisture. However, forcing for ascent will be subtle, so it is unclear where and when thunderstorms may form, precluding dry thunderstorm probabilities this far in advance. Nonetheless, fuels are already critically receptive to fire ignitions and spread, with a preceding, prolonged period of warming/drying expected through the week. As such, lightning-induced ignition potential could be high should thunderstorms form next weekend. Dry thunderstorm probabilities will likely be introduced as soon as medium range guidance comes into consensus for thunderstorm occurrence. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the northwestern U.S. on Day 3 (Tuesday) before upper ridging builds in and dominates the Interior West through the remainder of the week. A stray thunderstorm or two is possible over part of the northern Rockies on Tuesday with the passage of the trough. Though fuels are receptive to fire spread, thunderstorm coverage currently appears too sparse to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities. By the weekend (Days 7-8), a slight eastward shift of the upper ridge will encourage the northward return of mid-level monsoonal moisture across northern California into the Pacific Northwest (specifically areas east of the Cascades). Better chances for at least isolated dry thunderstorms exist with the northwestward return of moisture. However, forcing for ascent will be subtle, so it is unclear where and when thunderstorms may form, precluding dry thunderstorm probabilities this far in advance. Nonetheless, fuels are already critically receptive to fire ignitions and spread, with a preceding, prolonged period of warming/drying expected through the week. As such, lightning-induced ignition potential could be high should thunderstorms form next weekend. Dry thunderstorm probabilities will likely be introduced as soon as medium range guidance comes into consensus for thunderstorm occurrence. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the northwestern U.S. on Day 3 (Tuesday) before upper ridging builds in and dominates the Interior West through the remainder of the week. A stray thunderstorm or two is possible over part of the northern Rockies on Tuesday with the passage of the trough. Though fuels are receptive to fire spread, thunderstorm coverage currently appears too sparse to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities. By the weekend (Days 7-8), a slight eastward shift of the upper ridge will encourage the northward return of mid-level monsoonal moisture across northern California into the Pacific Northwest (specifically areas east of the Cascades). Better chances for at least isolated dry thunderstorms exist with the northwestward return of moisture. However, forcing for ascent will be subtle, so it is unclear where and when thunderstorms may form, precluding dry thunderstorm probabilities this far in advance. Nonetheless, fuels are already critically receptive to fire ignitions and spread, with a preceding, prolonged period of warming/drying expected through the week. As such, lightning-induced ignition potential could be high should thunderstorms form next weekend. Dry thunderstorm probabilities will likely be introduced as soon as medium range guidance comes into consensus for thunderstorm occurrence. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the northwestern U.S. on Day 3 (Tuesday) before upper ridging builds in and dominates the Interior West through the remainder of the week. A stray thunderstorm or two is possible over part of the northern Rockies on Tuesday with the passage of the trough. Though fuels are receptive to fire spread, thunderstorm coverage currently appears too sparse to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities. By the weekend (Days 7-8), a slight eastward shift of the upper ridge will encourage the northward return of mid-level monsoonal moisture across northern California into the Pacific Northwest (specifically areas east of the Cascades). Better chances for at least isolated dry thunderstorms exist with the northwestward return of moisture. However, forcing for ascent will be subtle, so it is unclear where and when thunderstorms may form, precluding dry thunderstorm probabilities this far in advance. Nonetheless, fuels are already critically receptive to fire ignitions and spread, with a preceding, prolonged period of warming/drying expected through the week. As such, lightning-induced ignition potential could be high should thunderstorms form next weekend. Dry thunderstorm probabilities will likely be introduced as soon as medium range guidance comes into consensus for thunderstorm occurrence. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the northwestern U.S. on Day 3 (Tuesday) before upper ridging builds in and dominates the Interior West through the remainder of the week. A stray thunderstorm or two is possible over part of the northern Rockies on Tuesday with the passage of the trough. Though fuels are receptive to fire spread, thunderstorm coverage currently appears too sparse to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities. By the weekend (Days 7-8), a slight eastward shift of the upper ridge will encourage the northward return of mid-level monsoonal moisture across northern California into the Pacific Northwest (specifically areas east of the Cascades). Better chances for at least isolated dry thunderstorms exist with the northwestward return of moisture. However, forcing for ascent will be subtle, so it is unclear where and when thunderstorms may form, precluding dry thunderstorm probabilities this far in advance. Nonetheless, fuels are already critically receptive to fire ignitions and spread, with a preceding, prolonged period of warming/drying expected through the week. As such, lightning-induced ignition potential could be high should thunderstorms form next weekend. Dry thunderstorm probabilities will likely be introduced as soon as medium range guidance comes into consensus for thunderstorm occurrence. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0316 PM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z A mid-level trough will traverse the northwestern U.S. on Day 3 (Tuesday) before upper ridging builds in and dominates the Interior West through the remainder of the week. A stray thunderstorm or two is possible over part of the northern Rockies on Tuesday with the passage of the trough. Though fuels are receptive to fire spread, thunderstorm coverage currently appears too sparse to introduce dry thunderstorm probabilities. By the weekend (Days 7-8), a slight eastward shift of the upper ridge will encourage the northward return of mid-level monsoonal moisture across northern California into the Pacific Northwest (specifically areas east of the Cascades). Better chances for at least isolated dry thunderstorms exist with the northwestward return of moisture. However, forcing for ascent will be subtle, so it is unclear where and when thunderstorms may form, precluding dry thunderstorm probabilities this far in advance. Nonetheless, fuels are already critically receptive to fire ignitions and spread, with a preceding, prolonged period of warming/drying expected through the week. As such, lightning-induced ignition potential could be high should thunderstorms form next weekend. Dry thunderstorm probabilities will likely be introduced as soon as medium range guidance comes into consensus for thunderstorm occurrence. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more