Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough, likely near the Upper Midwest Thursday morning, will slowly move east through the end of this week and the weekend as a large amplitude ridge builds over the western CONUS. This slow moving trough will be the primary feature associated with potential severe weather during the extended forecast period. On D4/Thu, a large cluster of storms will likely be ongoing in the western Great Lakes in response to the forcing from the mid-level trough and moderately strong isentropic ascent. A very moist airmass (mid 70s dewpoints) will likely remain on the southern/southwest extent of any ongoing convection. This will likely be the focus for potential severe weather threat across Illinois/Indiana/Ohio on Thursday. Strong instability will be present, however shear will be somewhat weak, except for portions of Illinois where mid-level flow will strengthen during the late afternoon/evening. There is still uncertainty regarding the timing and amplitude of this mid-level trough. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities will be added at this time. As the mid-level trough continues east on D5/Fri and into the weekend, moisture quality, and thus instability, is forecast to weaken. In addition, the slowing/deamplifying nature of the mid-level trough will result in weakening mid-level flow. Therefore, while some isolated/widely scattered severe weather threat may occur across portions of the eastern CONUS, a more organized severe weather threat appears unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough, likely near the Upper Midwest Thursday morning, will slowly move east through the end of this week and the weekend as a large amplitude ridge builds over the western CONUS. This slow moving trough will be the primary feature associated with potential severe weather during the extended forecast period. On D4/Thu, a large cluster of storms will likely be ongoing in the western Great Lakes in response to the forcing from the mid-level trough and moderately strong isentropic ascent. A very moist airmass (mid 70s dewpoints) will likely remain on the southern/southwest extent of any ongoing convection. This will likely be the focus for potential severe weather threat across Illinois/Indiana/Ohio on Thursday. Strong instability will be present, however shear will be somewhat weak, except for portions of Illinois where mid-level flow will strengthen during the late afternoon/evening. There is still uncertainty regarding the timing and amplitude of this mid-level trough. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities will be added at this time. As the mid-level trough continues east on D5/Fri and into the weekend, moisture quality, and thus instability, is forecast to weaken. In addition, the slowing/deamplifying nature of the mid-level trough will result in weakening mid-level flow. Therefore, while some isolated/widely scattered severe weather threat may occur across portions of the eastern CONUS, a more organized severe weather threat appears unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough, likely near the Upper Midwest Thursday morning, will slowly move east through the end of this week and the weekend as a large amplitude ridge builds over the western CONUS. This slow moving trough will be the primary feature associated with potential severe weather during the extended forecast period. On D4/Thu, a large cluster of storms will likely be ongoing in the western Great Lakes in response to the forcing from the mid-level trough and moderately strong isentropic ascent. A very moist airmass (mid 70s dewpoints) will likely remain on the southern/southwest extent of any ongoing convection. This will likely be the focus for potential severe weather threat across Illinois/Indiana/Ohio on Thursday. Strong instability will be present, however shear will be somewhat weak, except for portions of Illinois where mid-level flow will strengthen during the late afternoon/evening. There is still uncertainty regarding the timing and amplitude of this mid-level trough. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities will be added at this time. As the mid-level trough continues east on D5/Fri and into the weekend, moisture quality, and thus instability, is forecast to weaken. In addition, the slowing/deamplifying nature of the mid-level trough will result in weakening mid-level flow. Therefore, while some isolated/widely scattered severe weather threat may occur across portions of the eastern CONUS, a more organized severe weather threat appears unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough, likely near the Upper Midwest Thursday morning, will slowly move east through the end of this week and the weekend as a large amplitude ridge builds over the western CONUS. This slow moving trough will be the primary feature associated with potential severe weather during the extended forecast period. On D4/Thu, a large cluster of storms will likely be ongoing in the western Great Lakes in response to the forcing from the mid-level trough and moderately strong isentropic ascent. A very moist airmass (mid 70s dewpoints) will likely remain on the southern/southwest extent of any ongoing convection. This will likely be the focus for potential severe weather threat across Illinois/Indiana/Ohio on Thursday. Strong instability will be present, however shear will be somewhat weak, except for portions of Illinois where mid-level flow will strengthen during the late afternoon/evening. There is still uncertainty regarding the timing and amplitude of this mid-level trough. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities will be added at this time. As the mid-level trough continues east on D5/Fri and into the weekend, moisture quality, and thus instability, is forecast to weaken. In addition, the slowing/deamplifying nature of the mid-level trough will result in weakening mid-level flow. Therefore, while some isolated/widely scattered severe weather threat may occur across portions of the eastern CONUS, a more organized severe weather threat appears unlikely. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0326 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 011200Z - 061200Z ...DISCUSSION... A mid-level trough, likely near the Upper Midwest Thursday morning, will slowly move east through the end of this week and the weekend as a large amplitude ridge builds over the western CONUS. This slow moving trough will be the primary feature associated with potential severe weather during the extended forecast period. On D4/Thu, a large cluster of storms will likely be ongoing in the western Great Lakes in response to the forcing from the mid-level trough and moderately strong isentropic ascent. A very moist airmass (mid 70s dewpoints) will likely remain on the southern/southwest extent of any ongoing convection. This will likely be the focus for potential severe weather threat across Illinois/Indiana/Ohio on Thursday. Strong instability will be present, however shear will be somewhat weak, except for portions of Illinois where mid-level flow will strengthen during the late afternoon/evening. There is still uncertainty regarding the timing and amplitude of this mid-level trough. Therefore, no severe weather probabilities will be added at this time. As the mid-level trough continues east on D5/Fri and into the weekend, moisture quality, and thus instability, is forecast to weaken. In addition, the slowing/deamplifying nature of the mid-level trough will result in weakening mid-level flow. Therefore, while some isolated/widely scattered severe weather threat may occur across portions of the eastern CONUS, a more organized severe weather threat appears unlikely. Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a relatively zonal mid-level pattern will exist across the CONUS with several embedded shortwave troughs. The easternmost of these mid-level troughs will advance east across the Appalachians and off the Atlantic Coast on Wednesday. A weak, potentially convectively enhanced shortwave trough, may move through the northwesterly flow across the Midwest/southern Great Lakes. The strongest/most pronounced mid-level shortwave trough will cross the central Plains during the day on Wednesday. At the surface, a weak surface low will be located in the Nebraska vicinity with a very moist (mid to upper 70s dewpoints) airmass to its east. ...Eastern SD, southern MN, northwest IA, and far northeast NE... Strong instability will be present across the central Plains into the Upper Midwest in the presence of mid 70s dewpoints and very steep (9+ C/km) mid-level lapse rates. Ascent ahead of the mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Plains in combination with a strengthening low-level jet should result in thunderstorm development sometime during the afternoon/evening across eastern South Dakota and potentially Nebraska. As this mid-level trough advances east, mid-level flow will strengthen to 35 to 40 knots which will provide ample shear for storm organization. Any storms which develop could be supercellular initially, but will likely grow upscale into an MCS relatively quickly. ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley... Additional storms or storm clusters may be possible amid strong instability along a stationary front from the western Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley. Storm coverage remains questionable given height rises across the region and a lack of an obvious forcing mechanism and relatively warm low-mid level temperatures. However, a very unstable and moderately sheared environment along this zone would support severe thunderstorms. Details of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs or convectively enhanced features which may aid in storm development may become evident in later forecasts. Therefore, a broad marginal risk seems most appropriate at this time to address this conditional threat. ..Bentley.. 07/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a relatively zonal mid-level pattern will exist across the CONUS with several embedded shortwave troughs. The easternmost of these mid-level troughs will advance east across the Appalachians and off the Atlantic Coast on Wednesday. A weak, potentially convectively enhanced shortwave trough, may move through the northwesterly flow across the Midwest/southern Great Lakes. The strongest/most pronounced mid-level shortwave trough will cross the central Plains during the day on Wednesday. At the surface, a weak surface low will be located in the Nebraska vicinity with a very moist (mid to upper 70s dewpoints) airmass to its east. ...Eastern SD, southern MN, northwest IA, and far northeast NE... Strong instability will be present across the central Plains into the Upper Midwest in the presence of mid 70s dewpoints and very steep (9+ C/km) mid-level lapse rates. Ascent ahead of the mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Plains in combination with a strengthening low-level jet should result in thunderstorm development sometime during the afternoon/evening across eastern South Dakota and potentially Nebraska. As this mid-level trough advances east, mid-level flow will strengthen to 35 to 40 knots which will provide ample shear for storm organization. Any storms which develop could be supercellular initially, but will likely grow upscale into an MCS relatively quickly. ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley... Additional storms or storm clusters may be possible amid strong instability along a stationary front from the western Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley. Storm coverage remains questionable given height rises across the region and a lack of an obvious forcing mechanism and relatively warm low-mid level temperatures. However, a very unstable and moderately sheared environment along this zone would support severe thunderstorms. Details of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs or convectively enhanced features which may aid in storm development may become evident in later forecasts. Therefore, a broad marginal risk seems most appropriate at this time to address this conditional threat. ..Bentley.. 07/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a relatively zonal mid-level pattern will exist across the CONUS with several embedded shortwave troughs. The easternmost of these mid-level troughs will advance east across the Appalachians and off the Atlantic Coast on Wednesday. A weak, potentially convectively enhanced shortwave trough, may move through the northwesterly flow across the Midwest/southern Great Lakes. The strongest/most pronounced mid-level shortwave trough will cross the central Plains during the day on Wednesday. At the surface, a weak surface low will be located in the Nebraska vicinity with a very moist (mid to upper 70s dewpoints) airmass to its east. ...Eastern SD, southern MN, northwest IA, and far northeast NE... Strong instability will be present across the central Plains into the Upper Midwest in the presence of mid 70s dewpoints and very steep (9+ C/km) mid-level lapse rates. Ascent ahead of the mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Plains in combination with a strengthening low-level jet should result in thunderstorm development sometime during the afternoon/evening across eastern South Dakota and potentially Nebraska. As this mid-level trough advances east, mid-level flow will strengthen to 35 to 40 knots which will provide ample shear for storm organization. Any storms which develop could be supercellular initially, but will likely grow upscale into an MCS relatively quickly. ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley... Additional storms or storm clusters may be possible amid strong instability along a stationary front from the western Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley. Storm coverage remains questionable given height rises across the region and a lack of an obvious forcing mechanism and relatively warm low-mid level temperatures. However, a very unstable and moderately sheared environment along this zone would support severe thunderstorms. Details of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs or convectively enhanced features which may aid in storm development may become evident in later forecasts. Therefore, a broad marginal risk seems most appropriate at this time to address this conditional threat. ..Bentley.. 07/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a relatively zonal mid-level pattern will exist across the CONUS with several embedded shortwave troughs. The easternmost of these mid-level troughs will advance east across the Appalachians and off the Atlantic Coast on Wednesday. A weak, potentially convectively enhanced shortwave trough, may move through the northwesterly flow across the Midwest/southern Great Lakes. The strongest/most pronounced mid-level shortwave trough will cross the central Plains during the day on Wednesday. At the surface, a weak surface low will be located in the Nebraska vicinity with a very moist (mid to upper 70s dewpoints) airmass to its east. ...Eastern SD, southern MN, northwest IA, and far northeast NE... Strong instability will be present across the central Plains into the Upper Midwest in the presence of mid 70s dewpoints and very steep (9+ C/km) mid-level lapse rates. Ascent ahead of the mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Plains in combination with a strengthening low-level jet should result in thunderstorm development sometime during the afternoon/evening across eastern South Dakota and potentially Nebraska. As this mid-level trough advances east, mid-level flow will strengthen to 35 to 40 knots which will provide ample shear for storm organization. Any storms which develop could be supercellular initially, but will likely grow upscale into an MCS relatively quickly. ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley... Additional storms or storm clusters may be possible amid strong instability along a stationary front from the western Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley. Storm coverage remains questionable given height rises across the region and a lack of an obvious forcing mechanism and relatively warm low-mid level temperatures. However, a very unstable and moderately sheared environment along this zone would support severe thunderstorms. Details of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs or convectively enhanced features which may aid in storm development may become evident in later forecasts. Therefore, a broad marginal risk seems most appropriate at this time to address this conditional threat. ..Bentley.. 07/29/2024 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA...SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND FAR NORTHEAST NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe storms are possible from the Plains to the southern Great Lakes and the Appalachians to portions of New England. ...Synopsis... On Wednesday, a relatively zonal mid-level pattern will exist across the CONUS with several embedded shortwave troughs. The easternmost of these mid-level troughs will advance east across the Appalachians and off the Atlantic Coast on Wednesday. A weak, potentially convectively enhanced shortwave trough, may move through the northwesterly flow across the Midwest/southern Great Lakes. The strongest/most pronounced mid-level shortwave trough will cross the central Plains during the day on Wednesday. At the surface, a weak surface low will be located in the Nebraska vicinity with a very moist (mid to upper 70s dewpoints) airmass to its east. ...Eastern SD, southern MN, northwest IA, and far northeast NE... Strong instability will be present across the central Plains into the Upper Midwest in the presence of mid 70s dewpoints and very steep (9+ C/km) mid-level lapse rates. Ascent ahead of the mid-level shortwave trough traversing the Plains in combination with a strengthening low-level jet should result in thunderstorm development sometime during the afternoon/evening across eastern South Dakota and potentially Nebraska. As this mid-level trough advances east, mid-level flow will strengthen to 35 to 40 knots which will provide ample shear for storm organization. Any storms which develop could be supercellular initially, but will likely grow upscale into an MCS relatively quickly. ...Midwest into the Ohio Valley... Additional storms or storm clusters may be possible amid strong instability along a stationary front from the western Great Lakes to the Ohio Valley. Storm coverage remains questionable given height rises across the region and a lack of an obvious forcing mechanism and relatively warm low-mid level temperatures. However, a very unstable and moderately sheared environment along this zone would support severe thunderstorms. Details of embedded mid-level shortwave troughs or convectively enhanced features which may aid in storm development may become evident in later forecasts. Therefore, a broad marginal risk seems most appropriate at this time to address this conditional threat. ..Bentley.. 07/29/2024 Read more

MD 1724 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST NE AND WESTERN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 1724 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1239 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Areas affected...southeast SD...northeast NE and western IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 290539Z - 290745Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and severe gusts may remain possible through the pre-dawn hours early this morning with a pair of slow-moving supercells over the Mid-Missouri Valley. DISCUSSION...In between a broader MCV over northeast IA and a smaller MCV in central SD, a pair of slow-moving supercells have developed along the southeast SD/northeast NE border area. This activity is within a zone of lower-level warm theta-e advection, with increasingly pronounced MLCIN in the warm-moist sector to its south-southwest. Most guidance suggests that the advection regime should gradually subside within this corridor over the next several hours. But given the upstream MCV over central SD moving about twice as fast as these storms, it is plausible that a merging may occur during the next few hours. One of the 00Z NSSL-MPAS runs, which appears to have a decent handle on both convective areas, supports this scenario. This could result in the initial primary threat of large hail, transitioning to more of a severe wind threat later this morning. ..Grams/Guyer.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...LBF... LAT...LON 42189836 42849952 43409933 43749866 43109704 42629568 42039537 41509573 41669697 42189836 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day, while broad/enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft persists across the Great Basin. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the eastward-moving midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of the northern Rockies/Intermountain West into the northern Plains during the afternoon and evening. While many of these storms will be capable of producing measurable rainfall, quick eastward-moving storms (around 25-35 mph) will still favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms over dry fuels. As a result, some lightning-induced ignitions will be possible -- especially along the peripheries of any rain cores. ...Great Basin... Boundary-layer mixing into the modestly enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will lead to locally dry/breezy conditions across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions are possible, winds should be slightly weaker than the day prior, and the overall threat appears too localized for an Elevated area at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day, while broad/enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft persists across the Great Basin. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the eastward-moving midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of the northern Rockies/Intermountain West into the northern Plains during the afternoon and evening. While many of these storms will be capable of producing measurable rainfall, quick eastward-moving storms (around 25-35 mph) will still favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms over dry fuels. As a result, some lightning-induced ignitions will be possible -- especially along the peripheries of any rain cores. ...Great Basin... Boundary-layer mixing into the modestly enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will lead to locally dry/breezy conditions across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions are possible, winds should be slightly weaker than the day prior, and the overall threat appears too localized for an Elevated area at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day, while broad/enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft persists across the Great Basin. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the eastward-moving midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of the northern Rockies/Intermountain West into the northern Plains during the afternoon and evening. While many of these storms will be capable of producing measurable rainfall, quick eastward-moving storms (around 25-35 mph) will still favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms over dry fuels. As a result, some lightning-induced ignitions will be possible -- especially along the peripheries of any rain cores. ...Great Basin... Boundary-layer mixing into the modestly enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will lead to locally dry/breezy conditions across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions are possible, winds should be slightly weaker than the day prior, and the overall threat appears too localized for an Elevated area at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day, while broad/enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft persists across the Great Basin. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the eastward-moving midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of the northern Rockies/Intermountain West into the northern Plains during the afternoon and evening. While many of these storms will be capable of producing measurable rainfall, quick eastward-moving storms (around 25-35 mph) will still favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms over dry fuels. As a result, some lightning-induced ignitions will be possible -- especially along the peripheries of any rain cores. ...Great Basin... Boundary-layer mixing into the modestly enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will lead to locally dry/breezy conditions across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions are possible, winds should be slightly weaker than the day prior, and the overall threat appears too localized for an Elevated area at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...Synopsis... A midlevel trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains during the day, while broad/enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft persists across the Great Basin. ...Northern Rockies/Intermountain West... Large-scale ascent accompanying the eastward-moving midlevel trough will promote widely scattered thunderstorms across portions of the northern Rockies/Intermountain West into the northern Plains during the afternoon and evening. While many of these storms will be capable of producing measurable rainfall, quick eastward-moving storms (around 25-35 mph) will still favor a mix of wet/dry thunderstorms over dry fuels. As a result, some lightning-induced ignitions will be possible -- especially along the peripheries of any rain cores. ...Great Basin... Boundary-layer mixing into the modestly enhanced west-southwesterly flow aloft will lead to locally dry/breezy conditions across parts of the Great Basin during the afternoon. While locally elevated conditions are possible, winds should be slightly weaker than the day prior, and the overall threat appears too localized for an Elevated area at this time. ..Weinman.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will move slowly eastward across the Northwest during the day, while an expansive upper ridge remains centered over the south-central CONUS. Between these features, moderate (around 30 kt) midlevel west-southwesterly flow will persist across much of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and Great Basin... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft from southern NV into southern UT will favor 5-10 percent minimum RH and 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds. Given at least modestly receptive fuels over the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. Farther north, a modest pressure gradient along the western periphery of a surface trough, coupled with the enhanced flow through a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will yield around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across portions of the northern Rockies/Intermountain West and adjacent High Plains. Over southern ID and north-central MT, these breezy/gusty winds will overlap 15-20 percent afternoon RH, resulting in elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will move slowly eastward across the Northwest during the day, while an expansive upper ridge remains centered over the south-central CONUS. Between these features, moderate (around 30 kt) midlevel west-southwesterly flow will persist across much of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and Great Basin... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft from southern NV into southern UT will favor 5-10 percent minimum RH and 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds. Given at least modestly receptive fuels over the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. Farther north, a modest pressure gradient along the western periphery of a surface trough, coupled with the enhanced flow through a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will yield around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across portions of the northern Rockies/Intermountain West and adjacent High Plains. Over southern ID and north-central MT, these breezy/gusty winds will overlap 15-20 percent afternoon RH, resulting in elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will move slowly eastward across the Northwest during the day, while an expansive upper ridge remains centered over the south-central CONUS. Between these features, moderate (around 30 kt) midlevel west-southwesterly flow will persist across much of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and Great Basin... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft from southern NV into southern UT will favor 5-10 percent minimum RH and 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds. Given at least modestly receptive fuels over the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. Farther north, a modest pressure gradient along the western periphery of a surface trough, coupled with the enhanced flow through a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will yield around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across portions of the northern Rockies/Intermountain West and adjacent High Plains. Over southern ID and north-central MT, these breezy/gusty winds will overlap 15-20 percent afternoon RH, resulting in elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0155 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...Synopsis... A broad large-scale trough will move slowly eastward across the Northwest during the day, while an expansive upper ridge remains centered over the south-central CONUS. Between these features, moderate (around 30 kt) midlevel west-southwesterly flow will persist across much of the Great Basin into the Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. ...Northern Rockies/High Plains and Great Basin... Deep boundary-layer mixing into the enhanced flow aloft from southern NV into southern UT will favor 5-10 percent minimum RH and 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds. Given at least modestly receptive fuels over the area, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected during the afternoon. Farther north, a modest pressure gradient along the western periphery of a surface trough, coupled with the enhanced flow through a diurnally deepening boundary layer, will yield around 20 mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds across portions of the northern Rockies/Intermountain West and adjacent High Plains. Over southern ID and north-central MT, these breezy/gusty winds will overlap 15-20 percent afternoon RH, resulting in elevated to spotty critical fire-weather conditions. ..Weinman.. 07/29/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more