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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest this afternoon through tonight. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... Multiple low-amplitude, mid-level vorticity maxima (some convectively augmented) will move generally east-northeastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. One or more of these features should aid in robust thunderstorm development later today, although details on convective evolution through tonight remain uncertain. At the surface, a weak low over central SD late this morning should consolidate through this afternoon along/near the south-central SD/north-central NE border vicinity. A cold front will extend from northern MN into the Dakotas, linking with this surface low. A weak lee trough/dryline feature will extend southward from the low across parts of western/central NE/KS. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms should develop across parts of western/central SD by late afternoon along/near the cold front and surface low. Although deep-layer shear appears marginal for supercells, any initially more discrete thunderstorms could produce severe hail. A fairly quick transition to a more linear mode with greater severe/damaging wind threat is anticipated through the evening as convection spreads eastward into central/eastern SD. With sufficient cold pool organization, some chance for isolated 75+ mph wind gusts may exist with this cluster. A gradual weakening trend is expected tonight as this activity moves into a less unstable airmass across southern MN/northern IA. A generally separate area of convection should form along the length of the front in MN this afternoon. Most of this area will be in a relative minimum in mid-level flow, with modest deep-layer shear. Still, some threat for hail and strong to severe winds may exist with any cluster that can consolidate and spread east-southeastward through the evening. Farther south into the central Plains (western/central NE/KS), large-scale forcing for ascent appears more nebulous, with a broad area of modestly enhanced mid-level westerly flow expected. Primary forcing mechanism for convective initiation should be weak low-level convergence along the lee surface trough. Assuming thunderstorms can form and be sustained, a conditionally favorable environment for severe wind gusts and hail will exist. Modest low-level flow is forecast to veer to a westerly component and gradually strengthen with height through mid levels, supporting sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells. Isolated large hail will be a concern with any persistent supercell, but a well-mixed boundary layer should also promote severe downdraft winds. Overall coverage of severe thunderstorms may tend to remain fairly isolated with southward extent given the weak forcing. ...Eastern Nebraska into Iowa and Northern Missouri... A remnant MCV is located over northeast NE late this morning per recent visible satellite and radar imagery. This feature should continue moving slowly eastward into western IA this afternoon. An associated modest low-level jet and attendant warm/moist advection may encourage additional robust thunderstorm development later today across parts of east-central NE into western/southern IA. Sufficient low-level shear will be present to support some tornado threat, but the potential for supercells remains highly uncertain. A somewhat better chance is apparent for a small cluster to develop and spread east-southeastward through the evening along the instability axis, while posing a threat for mainly damaging winds. Given this potential shown in some high-resolution guidance, the Slight Risk has been expanded east-southeastward to include more of east-central NE into southwest IA. ...Wyoming/Southern Montana... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon across parts of WY and southern MT ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward from the Pacific Northwest. A couple of stronger outflow-driven cells/clusters appear possible, with an associated threat for isolated severe gusts. ...Tennessee Valley into the Southeast... Numerous thunderstorms are expected to further increase across parts of the TN Valley and Southeast this afternoon in association with a weak mid/upper-level trough moving northeastward across the mid MS Valley. Somewhat stronger heating and mid-level flow along the southern periphery of this trough could support a few strong thunderstorms, including the possibility of localized tree damage. However, with generally modest deep-layer shear and weak mid-level lapse rates, the potential for an organized/sustained severe threat across this region should remain rather limited. ..Gleason/Moore.. 07/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest this afternoon through tonight. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... Multiple low-amplitude, mid-level vorticity maxima (some convectively augmented) will move generally east-northeastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. One or more of these features should aid in robust thunderstorm development later today, although details on convective evolution through tonight remain uncertain. At the surface, a weak low over central SD late this morning should consolidate through this afternoon along/near the south-central SD/north-central NE border vicinity. A cold front will extend from northern MN into the Dakotas, linking with this surface low. A weak lee trough/dryline feature will extend southward from the low across parts of western/central NE/KS. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms should develop across parts of western/central SD by late afternoon along/near the cold front and surface low. Although deep-layer shear appears marginal for supercells, any initially more discrete thunderstorms could produce severe hail. A fairly quick transition to a more linear mode with greater severe/damaging wind threat is anticipated through the evening as convection spreads eastward into central/eastern SD. With sufficient cold pool organization, some chance for isolated 75+ mph wind gusts may exist with this cluster. A gradual weakening trend is expected tonight as this activity moves into a less unstable airmass across southern MN/northern IA. A generally separate area of convection should form along the length of the front in MN this afternoon. Most of this area will be in a relative minimum in mid-level flow, with modest deep-layer shear. Still, some threat for hail and strong to severe winds may exist with any cluster that can consolidate and spread east-southeastward through the evening. Farther south into the central Plains (western/central NE/KS), large-scale forcing for ascent appears more nebulous, with a broad area of modestly enhanced mid-level westerly flow expected. Primary forcing mechanism for convective initiation should be weak low-level convergence along the lee surface trough. Assuming thunderstorms can form and be sustained, a conditionally favorable environment for severe wind gusts and hail will exist. Modest low-level flow is forecast to veer to a westerly component and gradually strengthen with height through mid levels, supporting sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells. Isolated large hail will be a concern with any persistent supercell, but a well-mixed boundary layer should also promote severe downdraft winds. Overall coverage of severe thunderstorms may tend to remain fairly isolated with southward extent given the weak forcing. ...Eastern Nebraska into Iowa and Northern Missouri... A remnant MCV is located over northeast NE late this morning per recent visible satellite and radar imagery. This feature should continue moving slowly eastward into western IA this afternoon. An associated modest low-level jet and attendant warm/moist advection may encourage additional robust thunderstorm development later today across parts of east-central NE into western/southern IA. Sufficient low-level shear will be present to support some tornado threat, but the potential for supercells remains highly uncertain. A somewhat better chance is apparent for a small cluster to develop and spread east-southeastward through the evening along the instability axis, while posing a threat for mainly damaging winds. Given this potential shown in some high-resolution guidance, the Slight Risk has been expanded east-southeastward to include more of east-central NE into southwest IA. ...Wyoming/Southern Montana... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon across parts of WY and southern MT ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward from the Pacific Northwest. A couple of stronger outflow-driven cells/clusters appear possible, with an associated threat for isolated severe gusts. ...Tennessee Valley into the Southeast... Numerous thunderstorms are expected to further increase across parts of the TN Valley and Southeast this afternoon in association with a weak mid/upper-level trough moving northeastward across the mid MS Valley. Somewhat stronger heating and mid-level flow along the southern periphery of this trough could support a few strong thunderstorms, including the possibility of localized tree damage. However, with generally modest deep-layer shear and weak mid-level lapse rates, the potential for an organized/sustained severe threat across this region should remain rather limited. ..Gleason/Moore.. 07/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest this afternoon through tonight. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... Multiple low-amplitude, mid-level vorticity maxima (some convectively augmented) will move generally east-northeastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. One or more of these features should aid in robust thunderstorm development later today, although details on convective evolution through tonight remain uncertain. At the surface, a weak low over central SD late this morning should consolidate through this afternoon along/near the south-central SD/north-central NE border vicinity. A cold front will extend from northern MN into the Dakotas, linking with this surface low. A weak lee trough/dryline feature will extend southward from the low across parts of western/central NE/KS. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms should develop across parts of western/central SD by late afternoon along/near the cold front and surface low. Although deep-layer shear appears marginal for supercells, any initially more discrete thunderstorms could produce severe hail. A fairly quick transition to a more linear mode with greater severe/damaging wind threat is anticipated through the evening as convection spreads eastward into central/eastern SD. With sufficient cold pool organization, some chance for isolated 75+ mph wind gusts may exist with this cluster. A gradual weakening trend is expected tonight as this activity moves into a less unstable airmass across southern MN/northern IA. A generally separate area of convection should form along the length of the front in MN this afternoon. Most of this area will be in a relative minimum in mid-level flow, with modest deep-layer shear. Still, some threat for hail and strong to severe winds may exist with any cluster that can consolidate and spread east-southeastward through the evening. Farther south into the central Plains (western/central NE/KS), large-scale forcing for ascent appears more nebulous, with a broad area of modestly enhanced mid-level westerly flow expected. Primary forcing mechanism for convective initiation should be weak low-level convergence along the lee surface trough. Assuming thunderstorms can form and be sustained, a conditionally favorable environment for severe wind gusts and hail will exist. Modest low-level flow is forecast to veer to a westerly component and gradually strengthen with height through mid levels, supporting sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells. Isolated large hail will be a concern with any persistent supercell, but a well-mixed boundary layer should also promote severe downdraft winds. Overall coverage of severe thunderstorms may tend to remain fairly isolated with southward extent given the weak forcing. ...Eastern Nebraska into Iowa and Northern Missouri... A remnant MCV is located over northeast NE late this morning per recent visible satellite and radar imagery. This feature should continue moving slowly eastward into western IA this afternoon. An associated modest low-level jet and attendant warm/moist advection may encourage additional robust thunderstorm development later today across parts of east-central NE into western/southern IA. Sufficient low-level shear will be present to support some tornado threat, but the potential for supercells remains highly uncertain. A somewhat better chance is apparent for a small cluster to develop and spread east-southeastward through the evening along the instability axis, while posing a threat for mainly damaging winds. Given this potential shown in some high-resolution guidance, the Slight Risk has been expanded east-southeastward to include more of east-central NE into southwest IA. ...Wyoming/Southern Montana... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon across parts of WY and southern MT ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward from the Pacific Northwest. A couple of stronger outflow-driven cells/clusters appear possible, with an associated threat for isolated severe gusts. ...Tennessee Valley into the Southeast... Numerous thunderstorms are expected to further increase across parts of the TN Valley and Southeast this afternoon in association with a weak mid/upper-level trough moving northeastward across the mid MS Valley. Somewhat stronger heating and mid-level flow along the southern periphery of this trough could support a few strong thunderstorms, including the possibility of localized tree damage. However, with generally modest deep-layer shear and weak mid-level lapse rates, the potential for an organized/sustained severe threat across this region should remain rather limited. ..Gleason/Moore.. 07/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the northern/central Plains into the Upper Midwest this afternoon through tonight. Large hail and severe/damaging winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... Multiple low-amplitude, mid-level vorticity maxima (some convectively augmented) will move generally east-northeastward across the northern/central Plains and Upper Midwest through the period. One or more of these features should aid in robust thunderstorm development later today, although details on convective evolution through tonight remain uncertain. At the surface, a weak low over central SD late this morning should consolidate through this afternoon along/near the south-central SD/north-central NE border vicinity. A cold front will extend from northern MN into the Dakotas, linking with this surface low. A weak lee trough/dryline feature will extend southward from the low across parts of western/central NE/KS. ...Northern/Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... Scattered thunderstorms should develop across parts of western/central SD by late afternoon along/near the cold front and surface low. Although deep-layer shear appears marginal for supercells, any initially more discrete thunderstorms could produce severe hail. A fairly quick transition to a more linear mode with greater severe/damaging wind threat is anticipated through the evening as convection spreads eastward into central/eastern SD. With sufficient cold pool organization, some chance for isolated 75+ mph wind gusts may exist with this cluster. A gradual weakening trend is expected tonight as this activity moves into a less unstable airmass across southern MN/northern IA. A generally separate area of convection should form along the length of the front in MN this afternoon. Most of this area will be in a relative minimum in mid-level flow, with modest deep-layer shear. Still, some threat for hail and strong to severe winds may exist with any cluster that can consolidate and spread east-southeastward through the evening. Farther south into the central Plains (western/central NE/KS), large-scale forcing for ascent appears more nebulous, with a broad area of modestly enhanced mid-level westerly flow expected. Primary forcing mechanism for convective initiation should be weak low-level convergence along the lee surface trough. Assuming thunderstorms can form and be sustained, a conditionally favorable environment for severe wind gusts and hail will exist. Modest low-level flow is forecast to veer to a westerly component and gradually strengthen with height through mid levels, supporting sufficient deep-layer shear for supercells. Isolated large hail will be a concern with any persistent supercell, but a well-mixed boundary layer should also promote severe downdraft winds. Overall coverage of severe thunderstorms may tend to remain fairly isolated with southward extent given the weak forcing. ...Eastern Nebraska into Iowa and Northern Missouri... A remnant MCV is located over northeast NE late this morning per recent visible satellite and radar imagery. This feature should continue moving slowly eastward into western IA this afternoon. An associated modest low-level jet and attendant warm/moist advection may encourage additional robust thunderstorm development later today across parts of east-central NE into western/southern IA. Sufficient low-level shear will be present to support some tornado threat, but the potential for supercells remains highly uncertain. A somewhat better chance is apparent for a small cluster to develop and spread east-southeastward through the evening along the instability axis, while posing a threat for mainly damaging winds. Given this potential shown in some high-resolution guidance, the Slight Risk has been expanded east-southeastward to include more of east-central NE into southwest IA. ...Wyoming/Southern Montana... High-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon across parts of WY and southern MT ahead of a mid-level shortwave trough moving eastward from the Pacific Northwest. A couple of stronger outflow-driven cells/clusters appear possible, with an associated threat for isolated severe gusts. ...Tennessee Valley into the Southeast... Numerous thunderstorms are expected to further increase across parts of the TN Valley and Southeast this afternoon in association with a weak mid/upper-level trough moving northeastward across the mid MS Valley. Somewhat stronger heating and mid-level flow along the southern periphery of this trough could support a few strong thunderstorms, including the possibility of localized tree damage. However, with generally modest deep-layer shear and weak mid-level lapse rates, the potential for an organized/sustained severe threat across this region should remain rather limited. ..Gleason/Moore.. 07/28/2024 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains today, while a large-scale ridge remains centered over the southern Rockies/Southwest. Between these two features, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel flow will overspread the Central Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... Ample diurnal heating from southern NV east-northeastward across southern/central UT into south-central WY will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft. As a result, 5-10 percent minimum RH will overlap 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds during the afternoon. Given modestly receptive fuels through this corridor, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains... Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel shortwave trough will intercept a midlevel moisture plume, favoring isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms from the afternoon into the evening. 0.5-0.75 inch PW and quick storm motions will contribute to mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. Strong/erratic outflow winds could also accompany this activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains today, while a large-scale ridge remains centered over the southern Rockies/Southwest. Between these two features, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel flow will overspread the Central Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... Ample diurnal heating from southern NV east-northeastward across southern/central UT into south-central WY will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft. As a result, 5-10 percent minimum RH will overlap 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds during the afternoon. Given modestly receptive fuels through this corridor, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains... Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel shortwave trough will intercept a midlevel moisture plume, favoring isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms from the afternoon into the evening. 0.5-0.75 inch PW and quick storm motions will contribute to mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. Strong/erratic outflow winds could also accompany this activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains today, while a large-scale ridge remains centered over the southern Rockies/Southwest. Between these two features, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel flow will overspread the Central Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... Ample diurnal heating from southern NV east-northeastward across southern/central UT into south-central WY will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft. As a result, 5-10 percent minimum RH will overlap 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds during the afternoon. Given modestly receptive fuels through this corridor, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains... Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel shortwave trough will intercept a midlevel moisture plume, favoring isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms from the afternoon into the evening. 0.5-0.75 inch PW and quick storm motions will contribute to mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. Strong/erratic outflow winds could also accompany this activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains today, while a large-scale ridge remains centered over the southern Rockies/Southwest. Between these two features, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel flow will overspread the Central Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... Ample diurnal heating from southern NV east-northeastward across southern/central UT into south-central WY will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft. As a result, 5-10 percent minimum RH will overlap 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds during the afternoon. Given modestly receptive fuels through this corridor, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains... Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel shortwave trough will intercept a midlevel moisture plume, favoring isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms from the afternoon into the evening. 0.5-0.75 inch PW and quick storm motions will contribute to mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. Strong/erratic outflow winds could also accompany this activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains today, while a large-scale ridge remains centered over the southern Rockies/Southwest. Between these two features, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel flow will overspread the Central Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... Ample diurnal heating from southern NV east-northeastward across southern/central UT into south-central WY will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft. As a result, 5-10 percent minimum RH will overlap 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds during the afternoon. Given modestly receptive fuels through this corridor, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains... Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel shortwave trough will intercept a midlevel moisture plume, favoring isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms from the afternoon into the evening. 0.5-0.75 inch PW and quick storm motions will contribute to mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. Strong/erratic outflow winds could also accompany this activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains today, while a large-scale ridge remains centered over the southern Rockies/Southwest. Between these two features, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel flow will overspread the Central Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... Ample diurnal heating from southern NV east-northeastward across southern/central UT into south-central WY will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft. As a result, 5-10 percent minimum RH will overlap 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds during the afternoon. Given modestly receptive fuels through this corridor, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains... Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel shortwave trough will intercept a midlevel moisture plume, favoring isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms from the afternoon into the evening. 0.5-0.75 inch PW and quick storm motions will contribute to mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. Strong/erratic outflow winds could also accompany this activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains today, while a large-scale ridge remains centered over the southern Rockies/Southwest. Between these two features, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel flow will overspread the Central Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... Ample diurnal heating from southern NV east-northeastward across southern/central UT into south-central WY will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft. As a result, 5-10 percent minimum RH will overlap 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds during the afternoon. Given modestly receptive fuels through this corridor, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains... Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel shortwave trough will intercept a midlevel moisture plume, favoring isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms from the afternoon into the evening. 0.5-0.75 inch PW and quick storm motions will contribute to mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. Strong/erratic outflow winds could also accompany this activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains today, while a large-scale ridge remains centered over the southern Rockies/Southwest. Between these two features, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel flow will overspread the Central Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... Ample diurnal heating from southern NV east-northeastward across southern/central UT into south-central WY will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft. As a result, 5-10 percent minimum RH will overlap 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds during the afternoon. Given modestly receptive fuels through this corridor, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains... Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel shortwave trough will intercept a midlevel moisture plume, favoring isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms from the afternoon into the evening. 0.5-0.75 inch PW and quick storm motions will contribute to mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. Strong/erratic outflow winds could also accompany this activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains today, while a large-scale ridge remains centered over the southern Rockies/Southwest. Between these two features, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel flow will overspread the Central Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... Ample diurnal heating from southern NV east-northeastward across southern/central UT into south-central WY will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft. As a result, 5-10 percent minimum RH will overlap 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds during the afternoon. Given modestly receptive fuels through this corridor, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains... Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel shortwave trough will intercept a midlevel moisture plume, favoring isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms from the afternoon into the evening. 0.5-0.75 inch PW and quick storm motions will contribute to mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. Strong/erratic outflow winds could also accompany this activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains today, while a large-scale ridge remains centered over the southern Rockies/Southwest. Between these two features, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel flow will overspread the Central Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... Ample diurnal heating from southern NV east-northeastward across southern/central UT into south-central WY will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft. As a result, 5-10 percent minimum RH will overlap 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds during the afternoon. Given modestly receptive fuels through this corridor, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains... Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel shortwave trough will intercept a midlevel moisture plume, favoring isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms from the afternoon into the evening. 0.5-0.75 inch PW and quick storm motions will contribute to mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. Strong/erratic outflow winds could also accompany this activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains today, while a large-scale ridge remains centered over the southern Rockies/Southwest. Between these two features, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel flow will overspread the Central Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... Ample diurnal heating from southern NV east-northeastward across southern/central UT into south-central WY will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft. As a result, 5-10 percent minimum RH will overlap 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds during the afternoon. Given modestly receptive fuels through this corridor, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains... Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel shortwave trough will intercept a midlevel moisture plume, favoring isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms from the afternoon into the evening. 0.5-0.75 inch PW and quick storm motions will contribute to mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. Strong/erratic outflow winds could also accompany this activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1110 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 281700Z - 291200Z The previous forecast (see below) remains on track. ..Squitieri.. 07/28/2024 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0200 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024/ ...Synopsis... A midlevel shortwave trough will advance eastward across the northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains today, while a large-scale ridge remains centered over the southern Rockies/Southwest. Between these two features, a belt of moderate (30-40 kt) midlevel flow will overspread the Central Great Basin. ...Central Great Basin... Ample diurnal heating from southern NV east-northeastward across southern/central UT into south-central WY will yield deep boundary-layer mixing into the moderate flow aloft. As a result, 5-10 percent minimum RH will overlap 15-20 mph sustained southwesterly surface winds during the afternoon. Given modestly receptive fuels through this corridor, elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...Northern Rockies and adjacent High Plains... Large-scale ascent preceding the midlevel shortwave trough will intercept a midlevel moisture plume, favoring isolated to widely scattered high-based thunderstorms from the afternoon into the evening. 0.5-0.75 inch PW and quick storm motions will contribute to mostly dry thunderstorms, capable of lightning-induced ignitions over dry fuels. Strong/erratic outflow winds could also accompany this activity. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and northern Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...South Dakota/Minnesota... At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon initially across parts of western/central South Dakota, in areas near/north of the front and in the vicinity of the surface low. Mid-level flow of 30-40 kt atop low-level easterlies will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and a couple of supercells will be possible initially. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be a threat with the initial discrete development. Outflow consolidation could support development of an upscale-growing cluster by early evening, which may accelerate east-southeastward toward southeast South Dakota and the broader Siouxland vicinity, with a threat of severe gusts potentially exceeding 75 mph. Farther northeast across Minnesota, scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop by late afternoon near the effective front. Outside of some residual MCV enhancement, a notable weakness in mid-level flow, especially into northern Minnesota, will tend to limit deep-layer shear and storm organization across the region. That said, moderate buoyancy and a modest enhancement to low-level flow could support localized damaging winds, and perhaps an instance or two of hail with the strongest updrafts. ...Central High Plains... While large-scale forcing/ascent will be somewhat weaker with southward extent, strong heating and removal of MLCINH will support at least isolated storm development from western/central Nebraska into western Kansas, and possibly northeast Colorado in vicinity of a surface trough. Moderate to strong buoyancy, steep lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer shear will support a conditional risk of severe storms (potentially including a couple of supercells) with any diurnal development in this region. Overall storm coverage remains a bit uncertain, but the environment will conditionally support potential for both severe wind gusts and hail. ...Eastern Nebraska and Iowa/northern Missouri... An MCV across east-central Nebraska around sunrise should continue slowly eastward and generally weaken today. This MCV, along with a modest low-level jet and semi-persistent warm/moist advection, may influence intensifying thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moderately unstable environment across Iowa/northern Missouri. Even if consequential diurnal development does not occur, an increasing low-level jet could support increasing storm coverage across parts of the region later this evening into the overnight, which could be accompanied by a threat for isolated strong/damaging gusts and/or hail. ...Wyoming/Southern Montana... Relatively high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon in advance of a shortwave trough moving eastward out of the Pacific Northwest. A couple of stronger outflow-driven cells/clusters will be possible, with an attendant threat for isolated severe gusts. ...Tennessee Valley including portions of MS/AL/TN... Rather widespread convection is expected to further increase into the afternoon in association with a mid/upper-level trough moving northeastward out of the Ozarks vicinity. Somewhat stronger heating and mid-level flow along the southern periphery of this trough could support a few strong storms including the possibility of localized tree damage. However, with generally modest deep-layer shear and weak mid-level lapse rates, the potential for any organized or sustained severe threat across this region should be limited. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and northern Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...South Dakota/Minnesota... At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon initially across parts of western/central South Dakota, in areas near/north of the front and in the vicinity of the surface low. Mid-level flow of 30-40 kt atop low-level easterlies will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and a couple of supercells will be possible initially. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be a threat with the initial discrete development. Outflow consolidation could support development of an upscale-growing cluster by early evening, which may accelerate east-southeastward toward southeast South Dakota and the broader Siouxland vicinity, with a threat of severe gusts potentially exceeding 75 mph. Farther northeast across Minnesota, scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop by late afternoon near the effective front. Outside of some residual MCV enhancement, a notable weakness in mid-level flow, especially into northern Minnesota, will tend to limit deep-layer shear and storm organization across the region. That said, moderate buoyancy and a modest enhancement to low-level flow could support localized damaging winds, and perhaps an instance or two of hail with the strongest updrafts. ...Central High Plains... While large-scale forcing/ascent will be somewhat weaker with southward extent, strong heating and removal of MLCINH will support at least isolated storm development from western/central Nebraska into western Kansas, and possibly northeast Colorado in vicinity of a surface trough. Moderate to strong buoyancy, steep lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer shear will support a conditional risk of severe storms (potentially including a couple of supercells) with any diurnal development in this region. Overall storm coverage remains a bit uncertain, but the environment will conditionally support potential for both severe wind gusts and hail. ...Eastern Nebraska and Iowa/northern Missouri... An MCV across east-central Nebraska around sunrise should continue slowly eastward and generally weaken today. This MCV, along with a modest low-level jet and semi-persistent warm/moist advection, may influence intensifying thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moderately unstable environment across Iowa/northern Missouri. Even if consequential diurnal development does not occur, an increasing low-level jet could support increasing storm coverage across parts of the region later this evening into the overnight, which could be accompanied by a threat for isolated strong/damaging gusts and/or hail. ...Wyoming/Southern Montana... Relatively high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon in advance of a shortwave trough moving eastward out of the Pacific Northwest. A couple of stronger outflow-driven cells/clusters will be possible, with an attendant threat for isolated severe gusts. ...Tennessee Valley including portions of MS/AL/TN... Rather widespread convection is expected to further increase into the afternoon in association with a mid/upper-level trough moving northeastward out of the Ozarks vicinity. Somewhat stronger heating and mid-level flow along the southern periphery of this trough could support a few strong storms including the possibility of localized tree damage. However, with generally modest deep-layer shear and weak mid-level lapse rates, the potential for any organized or sustained severe threat across this region should be limited. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and northern Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...South Dakota/Minnesota... At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon initially across parts of western/central South Dakota, in areas near/north of the front and in the vicinity of the surface low. Mid-level flow of 30-40 kt atop low-level easterlies will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and a couple of supercells will be possible initially. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be a threat with the initial discrete development. Outflow consolidation could support development of an upscale-growing cluster by early evening, which may accelerate east-southeastward toward southeast South Dakota and the broader Siouxland vicinity, with a threat of severe gusts potentially exceeding 75 mph. Farther northeast across Minnesota, scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop by late afternoon near the effective front. Outside of some residual MCV enhancement, a notable weakness in mid-level flow, especially into northern Minnesota, will tend to limit deep-layer shear and storm organization across the region. That said, moderate buoyancy and a modest enhancement to low-level flow could support localized damaging winds, and perhaps an instance or two of hail with the strongest updrafts. ...Central High Plains... While large-scale forcing/ascent will be somewhat weaker with southward extent, strong heating and removal of MLCINH will support at least isolated storm development from western/central Nebraska into western Kansas, and possibly northeast Colorado in vicinity of a surface trough. Moderate to strong buoyancy, steep lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer shear will support a conditional risk of severe storms (potentially including a couple of supercells) with any diurnal development in this region. Overall storm coverage remains a bit uncertain, but the environment will conditionally support potential for both severe wind gusts and hail. ...Eastern Nebraska and Iowa/northern Missouri... An MCV across east-central Nebraska around sunrise should continue slowly eastward and generally weaken today. This MCV, along with a modest low-level jet and semi-persistent warm/moist advection, may influence intensifying thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moderately unstable environment across Iowa/northern Missouri. Even if consequential diurnal development does not occur, an increasing low-level jet could support increasing storm coverage across parts of the region later this evening into the overnight, which could be accompanied by a threat for isolated strong/damaging gusts and/or hail. ...Wyoming/Southern Montana... Relatively high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon in advance of a shortwave trough moving eastward out of the Pacific Northwest. A couple of stronger outflow-driven cells/clusters will be possible, with an attendant threat for isolated severe gusts. ...Tennessee Valley including portions of MS/AL/TN... Rather widespread convection is expected to further increase into the afternoon in association with a mid/upper-level trough moving northeastward out of the Ozarks vicinity. Somewhat stronger heating and mid-level flow along the southern periphery of this trough could support a few strong storms including the possibility of localized tree damage. However, with generally modest deep-layer shear and weak mid-level lapse rates, the potential for any organized or sustained severe threat across this region should be limited. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/28/2024 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0744 AM CDT Sun Jul 28 2024 Valid 281300Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of the central and northern Plains this afternoon into tonight. ...South Dakota/Minnesota... At least widely scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon initially across parts of western/central South Dakota, in areas near/north of the front and in the vicinity of the surface low. Mid-level flow of 30-40 kt atop low-level easterlies will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, and a couple of supercells will be possible initially. Hail and isolated severe gusts will be a threat with the initial discrete development. Outflow consolidation could support development of an upscale-growing cluster by early evening, which may accelerate east-southeastward toward southeast South Dakota and the broader Siouxland vicinity, with a threat of severe gusts potentially exceeding 75 mph. Farther northeast across Minnesota, scattered thunderstorms are expected to redevelop by late afternoon near the effective front. Outside of some residual MCV enhancement, a notable weakness in mid-level flow, especially into northern Minnesota, will tend to limit deep-layer shear and storm organization across the region. That said, moderate buoyancy and a modest enhancement to low-level flow could support localized damaging winds, and perhaps an instance or two of hail with the strongest updrafts. ...Central High Plains... While large-scale forcing/ascent will be somewhat weaker with southward extent, strong heating and removal of MLCINH will support at least isolated storm development from western/central Nebraska into western Kansas, and possibly northeast Colorado in vicinity of a surface trough. Moderate to strong buoyancy, steep lapse rates, and moderate deep-layer shear will support a conditional risk of severe storms (potentially including a couple of supercells) with any diurnal development in this region. Overall storm coverage remains a bit uncertain, but the environment will conditionally support potential for both severe wind gusts and hail. ...Eastern Nebraska and Iowa/northern Missouri... An MCV across east-central Nebraska around sunrise should continue slowly eastward and generally weaken today. This MCV, along with a modest low-level jet and semi-persistent warm/moist advection, may influence intensifying thunderstorm development this afternoon within a moderately unstable environment across Iowa/northern Missouri. Even if consequential diurnal development does not occur, an increasing low-level jet could support increasing storm coverage across parts of the region later this evening into the overnight, which could be accompanied by a threat for isolated strong/damaging gusts and/or hail. ...Wyoming/Southern Montana... Relatively high-based convection is expected to develop this afternoon in advance of a shortwave trough moving eastward out of the Pacific Northwest. A couple of stronger outflow-driven cells/clusters will be possible, with an attendant threat for isolated severe gusts. ...Tennessee Valley including portions of MS/AL/TN... Rather widespread convection is expected to further increase into the afternoon in association with a mid/upper-level trough moving northeastward out of the Ozarks vicinity. Somewhat stronger heating and mid-level flow along the southern periphery of this trough could support a few strong storms including the possibility of localized tree damage. However, with generally modest deep-layer shear and weak mid-level lapse rates, the potential for any organized or sustained severe threat across this region should be limited. ..Guyer/Grams.. 07/28/2024 Read more