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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR BIG BEND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over south-central Texas, followed by gusty post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas today. ...Big Bend into South-Central Texas... Across portions of far-west and south-central Texas, warm, dry, and gusty surface conditions are expected to precede a southward-advancing cold front from Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will persist through the late afternoon and into the early evening, with post-frontal winds reaching 15-20 MPH but gradually decreasing through the evening. Given ERC fuels guidance suggesting fuels are in the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles across west and southwest Texas, Critical fire-weather highlights have been maintained, though trimmed to reflect current high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...The Carolinas... Dry and windy post-frontal conditions will occur across portions of North and South Carolina this afternoon, with surface winds of 15-20 MPH and fuels in some areas exceeding the 80th and 90th annual ERC percentiles. However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values above 30%, precluding any Elevated highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR BIG BEND INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over south-central Texas, followed by gusty post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas today. ...Big Bend into South-Central Texas... Across portions of far-west and south-central Texas, warm, dry, and gusty surface conditions are expected to precede a southward-advancing cold front from Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. Surface winds of 20-25 MPH and relative humidity values of 10-15% will persist through the late afternoon and into the early evening, with post-frontal winds reaching 15-20 MPH but gradually decreasing through the evening. Given ERC fuels guidance suggesting fuels are in the 80th-90th annual and seasonal percentiles across west and southwest Texas, Critical fire-weather highlights have been maintained, though trimmed to reflect current high-resolution ensemble guidance. ...The Carolinas... Dry and windy post-frontal conditions will occur across portions of North and South Carolina this afternoon, with surface winds of 15-20 MPH and fuels in some areas exceeding the 80th and 90th annual ERC percentiles. However, current high-resolution ensemble guidance keeps relative humidity values above 30%, precluding any Elevated highlights at this time. ..Halbert.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low/shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore from the Carolinas on Monday. In the wake of this system, low-amplitude, quasi-zonal westerly flow will overspread much of the southern tier of the CONUS, while a broad upper trough migrates across the northern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the FL Peninsula and deep into the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture across most of the CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front, and along the SC/NC coast within the warm conveyor of a deepening surface low offshore. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low/shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore from the Carolinas on Monday. In the wake of this system, low-amplitude, quasi-zonal westerly flow will overspread much of the southern tier of the CONUS, while a broad upper trough migrates across the northern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the FL Peninsula and deep into the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture across most of the CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front, and along the SC/NC coast within the warm conveyor of a deepening surface low offshore. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low/shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore from the Carolinas on Monday. In the wake of this system, low-amplitude, quasi-zonal westerly flow will overspread much of the southern tier of the CONUS, while a broad upper trough migrates across the northern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the FL Peninsula and deep into the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture across most of the CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front, and along the SC/NC coast within the warm conveyor of a deepening surface low offshore. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low/shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore from the Carolinas on Monday. In the wake of this system, low-amplitude, quasi-zonal westerly flow will overspread much of the southern tier of the CONUS, while a broad upper trough migrates across the northern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the FL Peninsula and deep into the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture across most of the CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front, and along the SC/NC coast within the warm conveyor of a deepening surface low offshore. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low/shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore from the Carolinas on Monday. In the wake of this system, low-amplitude, quasi-zonal westerly flow will overspread much of the southern tier of the CONUS, while a broad upper trough migrates across the northern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the FL Peninsula and deep into the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture across most of the CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front, and along the SC/NC coast within the warm conveyor of a deepening surface low offshore. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low/shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore from the Carolinas on Monday. In the wake of this system, low-amplitude, quasi-zonal westerly flow will overspread much of the southern tier of the CONUS, while a broad upper trough migrates across the northern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the FL Peninsula and deep into the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture across most of the CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front, and along the SC/NC coast within the warm conveyor of a deepening surface low offshore. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low/shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore from the Carolinas on Monday. In the wake of this system, low-amplitude, quasi-zonal westerly flow will overspread much of the southern tier of the CONUS, while a broad upper trough migrates across the northern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the FL Peninsula and deep into the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture across most of the CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front, and along the SC/NC coast within the warm conveyor of a deepening surface low offshore. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low/shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore from the Carolinas on Monday. In the wake of this system, low-amplitude, quasi-zonal westerly flow will overspread much of the southern tier of the CONUS, while a broad upper trough migrates across the northern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the FL Peninsula and deep into the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture across most of the CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front, and along the SC/NC coast within the warm conveyor of a deepening surface low offshore. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0141 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Florida Peninsula and the coastal Carolinas on Monday. Severe storms are not expected. ...Synopsis... A compact upper low/shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore from the Carolinas on Monday. In the wake of this system, low-amplitude, quasi-zonal westerly flow will overspread much of the southern tier of the CONUS, while a broad upper trough migrates across the northern U.S. At the surface, a cold front will move southeast across the FL Peninsula and deep into the Gulf. This will leave a dearth of boundary layer moisture across most of the CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of the front, and along the SC/NC coast within the warm conveyor of a deepening surface low offshore. Severe storms are not expected. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...FL Panhandle/Northern FL into Southern GA... A surface warm front is forecast to be draped across southern AL toward the FL/GA state line on Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be positioned over far southern MS/AL with a trailing cold front extending into the western Gulf. A southwesterly low-level jet around 30-40 kt at 850 mb will maintain a warm advection regime ahead of the low and cold front, and areas of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Sunday morning. Destabilization will likely be tempered by early convection, and storms may mostly be elevated. However, some risk of marginal hail or strong gusts will accompany stronger storms during the morning. By afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop across north FL ahead of the cold front. This activity may have a better chance to become surface-based. Thunderstorm clusters or an isolated supercell may produce strong to locally severe gusts. Furthermore, if convection can become surface-based and take advantage of somewhat enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the warm front, a risk for a tornado or two is possible. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...FL Panhandle/Northern FL into Southern GA... A surface warm front is forecast to be draped across southern AL toward the FL/GA state line on Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be positioned over far southern MS/AL with a trailing cold front extending into the western Gulf. A southwesterly low-level jet around 30-40 kt at 850 mb will maintain a warm advection regime ahead of the low and cold front, and areas of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Sunday morning. Destabilization will likely be tempered by early convection, and storms may mostly be elevated. However, some risk of marginal hail or strong gusts will accompany stronger storms during the morning. By afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop across north FL ahead of the cold front. This activity may have a better chance to become surface-based. Thunderstorm clusters or an isolated supercell may produce strong to locally severe gusts. Furthermore, if convection can become surface-based and take advantage of somewhat enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the warm front, a risk for a tornado or two is possible. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...FL Panhandle/Northern FL into Southern GA... A surface warm front is forecast to be draped across southern AL toward the FL/GA state line on Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be positioned over far southern MS/AL with a trailing cold front extending into the western Gulf. A southwesterly low-level jet around 30-40 kt at 850 mb will maintain a warm advection regime ahead of the low and cold front, and areas of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Sunday morning. Destabilization will likely be tempered by early convection, and storms may mostly be elevated. However, some risk of marginal hail or strong gusts will accompany stronger storms during the morning. By afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop across north FL ahead of the cold front. This activity may have a better chance to become surface-based. Thunderstorm clusters or an isolated supercell may produce strong to locally severe gusts. Furthermore, if convection can become surface-based and take advantage of somewhat enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the warm front, a risk for a tornado or two is possible. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...FL Panhandle/Northern FL into Southern GA... A surface warm front is forecast to be draped across southern AL toward the FL/GA state line on Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be positioned over far southern MS/AL with a trailing cold front extending into the western Gulf. A southwesterly low-level jet around 30-40 kt at 850 mb will maintain a warm advection regime ahead of the low and cold front, and areas of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Sunday morning. Destabilization will likely be tempered by early convection, and storms may mostly be elevated. However, some risk of marginal hail or strong gusts will accompany stronger storms during the morning. By afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop across north FL ahead of the cold front. This activity may have a better chance to become surface-based. Thunderstorm clusters or an isolated supercell may produce strong to locally severe gusts. Furthermore, if convection can become surface-based and take advantage of somewhat enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the warm front, a risk for a tornado or two is possible. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...FL Panhandle/Northern FL into Southern GA... A surface warm front is forecast to be draped across southern AL toward the FL/GA state line on Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be positioned over far southern MS/AL with a trailing cold front extending into the western Gulf. A southwesterly low-level jet around 30-40 kt at 850 mb will maintain a warm advection regime ahead of the low and cold front, and areas of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Sunday morning. Destabilization will likely be tempered by early convection, and storms may mostly be elevated. However, some risk of marginal hail or strong gusts will accompany stronger storms during the morning. By afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop across north FL ahead of the cold front. This activity may have a better chance to become surface-based. Thunderstorm clusters or an isolated supercell may produce strong to locally severe gusts. Furthermore, if convection can become surface-based and take advantage of somewhat enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the warm front, a risk for a tornado or two is possible. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...FL Panhandle/Northern FL into Southern GA... A surface warm front is forecast to be draped across southern AL toward the FL/GA state line on Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be positioned over far southern MS/AL with a trailing cold front extending into the western Gulf. A southwesterly low-level jet around 30-40 kt at 850 mb will maintain a warm advection regime ahead of the low and cold front, and areas of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Sunday morning. Destabilization will likely be tempered by early convection, and storms may mostly be elevated. However, some risk of marginal hail or strong gusts will accompany stronger storms during the morning. By afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop across north FL ahead of the cold front. This activity may have a better chance to become surface-based. Thunderstorm clusters or an isolated supercell may produce strong to locally severe gusts. Furthermore, if convection can become surface-based and take advantage of somewhat enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the warm front, a risk for a tornado or two is possible. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...FL Panhandle/Northern FL into Southern GA... A surface warm front is forecast to be draped across southern AL toward the FL/GA state line on Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be positioned over far southern MS/AL with a trailing cold front extending into the western Gulf. A southwesterly low-level jet around 30-40 kt at 850 mb will maintain a warm advection regime ahead of the low and cold front, and areas of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Sunday morning. Destabilization will likely be tempered by early convection, and storms may mostly be elevated. However, some risk of marginal hail or strong gusts will accompany stronger storms during the morning. By afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop across north FL ahead of the cold front. This activity may have a better chance to become surface-based. Thunderstorm clusters or an isolated supercell may produce strong to locally severe gusts. Furthermore, if convection can become surface-based and take advantage of somewhat enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the warm front, a risk for a tornado or two is possible. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...FL Panhandle/Northern FL into Southern GA... A surface warm front is forecast to be draped across southern AL toward the FL/GA state line on Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be positioned over far southern MS/AL with a trailing cold front extending into the western Gulf. A southwesterly low-level jet around 30-40 kt at 850 mb will maintain a warm advection regime ahead of the low and cold front, and areas of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Sunday morning. Destabilization will likely be tempered by early convection, and storms may mostly be elevated. However, some risk of marginal hail or strong gusts will accompany stronger storms during the morning. By afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop across north FL ahead of the cold front. This activity may have a better chance to become surface-based. Thunderstorm clusters or an isolated supercell may produce strong to locally severe gusts. Furthermore, if convection can become surface-based and take advantage of somewhat enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the warm front, a risk for a tornado or two is possible. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast states. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast States... At mid-levels today, a low will move into the southern Plains, as an 80 to 100 knot jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system. A complex of thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of the jet streak this morning across north-central and northeast Texas. This convection will be mostly to the north of a cold front located from north Texas eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. The primary severe threat this morning will be marginally severe hail due to steep mid-level lapse rates, strong effective shear and sufficient instability. The cluster of storms will move eastward from the vicinity of east Texas this afternoon into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching system, and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support an isolated severe threat. The potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually gains access to a moist airmass located across the Gulf Coast region. For this reason, marginally severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado will be possible. The potential for severe gusts will likely be greatest ahead of short multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue after midnight, as new storms develop over the northern Gulf and move northeastward into the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/08/2025 Read more