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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestern Great Lakes, mainly from late afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main hazards, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. A few tornadoes also appear possible. ...Discussion... Aside from some minor trimming of the MRGL risk area across southern Wisconsin, and from the western Oklahoma vicinity into southern Kansas, no changes appear necessary at this time. Extensive cloud cover along the frontal zone -- from the southern Plains to Wisconsin -- continues to modulate heating/destabilization in the near-frontal warm sector. These effects include a persistent, stout cap across the southern Plains area early this afternoon (per the 18Z OUN RAOB). Still, storm development is expected late this afternoon, as reflected in previous forecasts, with all-hazards severe potential with more vigorous convection. ..Goss.. 04/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025/ ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the southern High Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes, downstream of a mid- to upper-level low over the Four Corners states. A cold front was analyzed from the Low Rolling Plains northeastward through central OK late this morning. This portion of the front will continue southeastward into the I-44 corridor but decelerate towards late afternoon. A dryline extends southward from the front over the TX Big Country. Despite widespread mid/high-level cloudiness, filtered heating of a moist/destabilizing airmass will likely result in a weakened cap by late afternoon. Initial supercell development should pose a threat for large to very large hail, potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. Model forecast hodographs and ample PW suggest a strong tendency towards upscale growth into an HP supercell and linear segment this evening from south-central OK northeastward towards the western part of the Ozark Plateau. Coincident with this expected convective mode evolution, an increase in the severe/damaging wind threat is anticipated. The threat for a few tornadoes remains apparent, especially across parts of OK along/south of the front, as favorable low-level shear will be present this evening where surface-based supercells and mesovortex potential may still exist. ...Lower MI to Mid Mississippi Valley... In wake of weakened thunderstorm activity across Lower MI, a warm sector will attempt to spread northward and destabilize across parts of the mid MS Valley and southern/central Great Lakes this afternoon. An upper trough will only slowly encroach on the Upper Midwest through late tonight. As a result, southwesterly flow aloft will be maintained and limited southeastward progression of a cold front is forecast. Model guidance continues to indicate surface-based thunderstorm development will be inhibited until peak heating, when frontal forcing and gradual erosion of the cap leads to isolated storms developing from MO northeastward towards the southwest Great Lakes. Uncertainty remains regarding timing, overall thunderstorm coverage, and the exact evolution of this activity. Nonetheless, strong shear through a deep layer and adequate buoyancy (due in part to steep mid-level lapse rates), will support organized thunderstorms. The stronger thunderstorms will probably pose a risk for severe hail and damaging winds. This severe threat may persist for much of the evening, and perhaps continuing into the early overnight hours. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0240 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 182000Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley and southwestern Great Lakes, mainly from late afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large to very large hail and severe wind gusts should be the main hazards, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. A few tornadoes also appear possible. ...Discussion... Aside from some minor trimming of the MRGL risk area across southern Wisconsin, and from the western Oklahoma vicinity into southern Kansas, no changes appear necessary at this time. Extensive cloud cover along the frontal zone -- from the southern Plains to Wisconsin -- continues to modulate heating/destabilization in the near-frontal warm sector. These effects include a persistent, stout cap across the southern Plains area early this afternoon (per the 18Z OUN RAOB). Still, storm development is expected late this afternoon, as reflected in previous forecasts, with all-hazards severe potential with more vigorous convection. ..Goss.. 04/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1133 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025/ ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Strong southwesterly mid to high-level flow will extend from the southern High Plains northeastward into the Great Lakes, downstream of a mid- to upper-level low over the Four Corners states. A cold front was analyzed from the Low Rolling Plains northeastward through central OK late this morning. This portion of the front will continue southeastward into the I-44 corridor but decelerate towards late afternoon. A dryline extends southward from the front over the TX Big Country. Despite widespread mid/high-level cloudiness, filtered heating of a moist/destabilizing airmass will likely result in a weakened cap by late afternoon. Initial supercell development should pose a threat for large to very large hail, potentially up to 2-3 inches in diameter. Model forecast hodographs and ample PW suggest a strong tendency towards upscale growth into an HP supercell and linear segment this evening from south-central OK northeastward towards the western part of the Ozark Plateau. Coincident with this expected convective mode evolution, an increase in the severe/damaging wind threat is anticipated. The threat for a few tornadoes remains apparent, especially across parts of OK along/south of the front, as favorable low-level shear will be present this evening where surface-based supercells and mesovortex potential may still exist. ...Lower MI to Mid Mississippi Valley... In wake of weakened thunderstorm activity across Lower MI, a warm sector will attempt to spread northward and destabilize across parts of the mid MS Valley and southern/central Great Lakes this afternoon. An upper trough will only slowly encroach on the Upper Midwest through late tonight. As a result, southwesterly flow aloft will be maintained and limited southeastward progression of a cold front is forecast. Model guidance continues to indicate surface-based thunderstorm development will be inhibited until peak heating, when frontal forcing and gradual erosion of the cap leads to isolated storms developing from MO northeastward towards the southwest Great Lakes. Uncertainty remains regarding timing, overall thunderstorm coverage, and the exact evolution of this activity. Nonetheless, strong shear through a deep layer and adequate buoyancy (due in part to steep mid-level lapse rates), will support organized thunderstorms. The stronger thunderstorms will probably pose a risk for severe hail and damaging winds. This severe threat may persist for much of the evening, and perhaps continuing into the early overnight hours. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z No changes were made to the forecast for Saturday. Some uncertainty remains in timing of cold front passage across the Trans-Pecos area affecting residence time of Elevated fire weather conditions. Higher confidence of an Elevated to a locally Critical fire weather threat will exist across the Big Bend area with southwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity dropping to below 10 percent at times, before conditions moderate for Saturday evening behind the cold front. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains on Saturday, though it will lose some amplitude during the period. A cold front will continue southward into more of the southern High Plains and eventually the Permian Basin. A surface low near the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will deepen during the day before weakening during the evening as the trough lifts northeastward. ...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend... Though cooler/moist air to the east and north will limit the areal extent, elevated fire weather will occur within the Trans-Pecos and Big Bend Saturday afternoon. Moderate to strong mid-level winds will remain in the region during the afternoon and the surface low will also be deepest during the favorable diurnal heating maximum. Cloud cover should be minimal in this area given the presence of dry air aloft. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely along with RH of 5-20%. Areas of southeast New Mexico into the South Plains could see briefly elevated conditions, but uncertainty in duration is too great for highlights. ...Florida... Continued dry easterly flow will once again promote elevated fire weather along the western Peninsula during the afternoon. Models indicate winds could be slightly stronger than on Friday (10-15 mph). RH will fall to similar levels, however (25-35% anticipated by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z No changes were made to the forecast for Saturday. Some uncertainty remains in timing of cold front passage across the Trans-Pecos area affecting residence time of Elevated fire weather conditions. Higher confidence of an Elevated to a locally Critical fire weather threat will exist across the Big Bend area with southwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity dropping to below 10 percent at times, before conditions moderate for Saturday evening behind the cold front. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains on Saturday, though it will lose some amplitude during the period. A cold front will continue southward into more of the southern High Plains and eventually the Permian Basin. A surface low near the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will deepen during the day before weakening during the evening as the trough lifts northeastward. ...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend... Though cooler/moist air to the east and north will limit the areal extent, elevated fire weather will occur within the Trans-Pecos and Big Bend Saturday afternoon. Moderate to strong mid-level winds will remain in the region during the afternoon and the surface low will also be deepest during the favorable diurnal heating maximum. Cloud cover should be minimal in this area given the presence of dry air aloft. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely along with RH of 5-20%. Areas of southeast New Mexico into the South Plains could see briefly elevated conditions, but uncertainty in duration is too great for highlights. ...Florida... Continued dry easterly flow will once again promote elevated fire weather along the western Peninsula during the afternoon. Models indicate winds could be slightly stronger than on Friday (10-15 mph). RH will fall to similar levels, however (25-35% anticipated by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z No changes were made to the forecast for Saturday. Some uncertainty remains in timing of cold front passage across the Trans-Pecos area affecting residence time of Elevated fire weather conditions. Higher confidence of an Elevated to a locally Critical fire weather threat will exist across the Big Bend area with southwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity dropping to below 10 percent at times, before conditions moderate for Saturday evening behind the cold front. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains on Saturday, though it will lose some amplitude during the period. A cold front will continue southward into more of the southern High Plains and eventually the Permian Basin. A surface low near the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will deepen during the day before weakening during the evening as the trough lifts northeastward. ...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend... Though cooler/moist air to the east and north will limit the areal extent, elevated fire weather will occur within the Trans-Pecos and Big Bend Saturday afternoon. Moderate to strong mid-level winds will remain in the region during the afternoon and the surface low will also be deepest during the favorable diurnal heating maximum. Cloud cover should be minimal in this area given the presence of dry air aloft. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely along with RH of 5-20%. Areas of southeast New Mexico into the South Plains could see briefly elevated conditions, but uncertainty in duration is too great for highlights. ...Florida... Continued dry easterly flow will once again promote elevated fire weather along the western Peninsula during the afternoon. Models indicate winds could be slightly stronger than on Friday (10-15 mph). RH will fall to similar levels, however (25-35% anticipated by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z No changes were made to the forecast for Saturday. Some uncertainty remains in timing of cold front passage across the Trans-Pecos area affecting residence time of Elevated fire weather conditions. Higher confidence of an Elevated to a locally Critical fire weather threat will exist across the Big Bend area with southwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity dropping to below 10 percent at times, before conditions moderate for Saturday evening behind the cold front. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains on Saturday, though it will lose some amplitude during the period. A cold front will continue southward into more of the southern High Plains and eventually the Permian Basin. A surface low near the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will deepen during the day before weakening during the evening as the trough lifts northeastward. ...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend... Though cooler/moist air to the east and north will limit the areal extent, elevated fire weather will occur within the Trans-Pecos and Big Bend Saturday afternoon. Moderate to strong mid-level winds will remain in the region during the afternoon and the surface low will also be deepest during the favorable diurnal heating maximum. Cloud cover should be minimal in this area given the presence of dry air aloft. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely along with RH of 5-20%. Areas of southeast New Mexico into the South Plains could see briefly elevated conditions, but uncertainty in duration is too great for highlights. ...Florida... Continued dry easterly flow will once again promote elevated fire weather along the western Peninsula during the afternoon. Models indicate winds could be slightly stronger than on Friday (10-15 mph). RH will fall to similar levels, however (25-35% anticipated by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z No changes were made to the forecast for Saturday. Some uncertainty remains in timing of cold front passage across the Trans-Pecos area affecting residence time of Elevated fire weather conditions. Higher confidence of an Elevated to a locally Critical fire weather threat will exist across the Big Bend area with southwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity dropping to below 10 percent at times, before conditions moderate for Saturday evening behind the cold front. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains on Saturday, though it will lose some amplitude during the period. A cold front will continue southward into more of the southern High Plains and eventually the Permian Basin. A surface low near the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will deepen during the day before weakening during the evening as the trough lifts northeastward. ...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend... Though cooler/moist air to the east and north will limit the areal extent, elevated fire weather will occur within the Trans-Pecos and Big Bend Saturday afternoon. Moderate to strong mid-level winds will remain in the region during the afternoon and the surface low will also be deepest during the favorable diurnal heating maximum. Cloud cover should be minimal in this area given the presence of dry air aloft. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely along with RH of 5-20%. Areas of southeast New Mexico into the South Plains could see briefly elevated conditions, but uncertainty in duration is too great for highlights. ...Florida... Continued dry easterly flow will once again promote elevated fire weather along the western Peninsula during the afternoon. Models indicate winds could be slightly stronger than on Friday (10-15 mph). RH will fall to similar levels, however (25-35% anticipated by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z No changes were made to the forecast for Saturday. Some uncertainty remains in timing of cold front passage across the Trans-Pecos area affecting residence time of Elevated fire weather conditions. Higher confidence of an Elevated to a locally Critical fire weather threat will exist across the Big Bend area with southwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity dropping to below 10 percent at times, before conditions moderate for Saturday evening behind the cold front. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains on Saturday, though it will lose some amplitude during the period. A cold front will continue southward into more of the southern High Plains and eventually the Permian Basin. A surface low near the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will deepen during the day before weakening during the evening as the trough lifts northeastward. ...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend... Though cooler/moist air to the east and north will limit the areal extent, elevated fire weather will occur within the Trans-Pecos and Big Bend Saturday afternoon. Moderate to strong mid-level winds will remain in the region during the afternoon and the surface low will also be deepest during the favorable diurnal heating maximum. Cloud cover should be minimal in this area given the presence of dry air aloft. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely along with RH of 5-20%. Areas of southeast New Mexico into the South Plains could see briefly elevated conditions, but uncertainty in duration is too great for highlights. ...Florida... Continued dry easterly flow will once again promote elevated fire weather along the western Peninsula during the afternoon. Models indicate winds could be slightly stronger than on Friday (10-15 mph). RH will fall to similar levels, however (25-35% anticipated by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z No changes were made to the forecast for Saturday. Some uncertainty remains in timing of cold front passage across the Trans-Pecos area affecting residence time of Elevated fire weather conditions. Higher confidence of an Elevated to a locally Critical fire weather threat will exist across the Big Bend area with southwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity dropping to below 10 percent at times, before conditions moderate for Saturday evening behind the cold front. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains on Saturday, though it will lose some amplitude during the period. A cold front will continue southward into more of the southern High Plains and eventually the Permian Basin. A surface low near the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will deepen during the day before weakening during the evening as the trough lifts northeastward. ...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend... Though cooler/moist air to the east and north will limit the areal extent, elevated fire weather will occur within the Trans-Pecos and Big Bend Saturday afternoon. Moderate to strong mid-level winds will remain in the region during the afternoon and the surface low will also be deepest during the favorable diurnal heating maximum. Cloud cover should be minimal in this area given the presence of dry air aloft. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely along with RH of 5-20%. Areas of southeast New Mexico into the South Plains could see briefly elevated conditions, but uncertainty in duration is too great for highlights. ...Florida... Continued dry easterly flow will once again promote elevated fire weather along the western Peninsula during the afternoon. Models indicate winds could be slightly stronger than on Friday (10-15 mph). RH will fall to similar levels, however (25-35% anticipated by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z No changes were made to the forecast for Saturday. Some uncertainty remains in timing of cold front passage across the Trans-Pecos area affecting residence time of Elevated fire weather conditions. Higher confidence of an Elevated to a locally Critical fire weather threat will exist across the Big Bend area with southwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity dropping to below 10 percent at times, before conditions moderate for Saturday evening behind the cold front. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains on Saturday, though it will lose some amplitude during the period. A cold front will continue southward into more of the southern High Plains and eventually the Permian Basin. A surface low near the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will deepen during the day before weakening during the evening as the trough lifts northeastward. ...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend... Though cooler/moist air to the east and north will limit the areal extent, elevated fire weather will occur within the Trans-Pecos and Big Bend Saturday afternoon. Moderate to strong mid-level winds will remain in the region during the afternoon and the surface low will also be deepest during the favorable diurnal heating maximum. Cloud cover should be minimal in this area given the presence of dry air aloft. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely along with RH of 5-20%. Areas of southeast New Mexico into the South Plains could see briefly elevated conditions, but uncertainty in duration is too great for highlights. ...Florida... Continued dry easterly flow will once again promote elevated fire weather along the western Peninsula during the afternoon. Models indicate winds could be slightly stronger than on Friday (10-15 mph). RH will fall to similar levels, however (25-35% anticipated by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z No changes were made to the forecast for Saturday. Some uncertainty remains in timing of cold front passage across the Trans-Pecos area affecting residence time of Elevated fire weather conditions. Higher confidence of an Elevated to a locally Critical fire weather threat will exist across the Big Bend area with southwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity dropping to below 10 percent at times, before conditions moderate for Saturday evening behind the cold front. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains on Saturday, though it will lose some amplitude during the period. A cold front will continue southward into more of the southern High Plains and eventually the Permian Basin. A surface low near the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will deepen during the day before weakening during the evening as the trough lifts northeastward. ...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend... Though cooler/moist air to the east and north will limit the areal extent, elevated fire weather will occur within the Trans-Pecos and Big Bend Saturday afternoon. Moderate to strong mid-level winds will remain in the region during the afternoon and the surface low will also be deepest during the favorable diurnal heating maximum. Cloud cover should be minimal in this area given the presence of dry air aloft. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely along with RH of 5-20%. Areas of southeast New Mexico into the South Plains could see briefly elevated conditions, but uncertainty in duration is too great for highlights. ...Florida... Continued dry easterly flow will once again promote elevated fire weather along the western Peninsula during the afternoon. Models indicate winds could be slightly stronger than on Friday (10-15 mph). RH will fall to similar levels, however (25-35% anticipated by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z No changes were made to the forecast for Saturday. Some uncertainty remains in timing of cold front passage across the Trans-Pecos area affecting residence time of Elevated fire weather conditions. Higher confidence of an Elevated to a locally Critical fire weather threat will exist across the Big Bend area with southwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity dropping to below 10 percent at times, before conditions moderate for Saturday evening behind the cold front. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains on Saturday, though it will lose some amplitude during the period. A cold front will continue southward into more of the southern High Plains and eventually the Permian Basin. A surface low near the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will deepen during the day before weakening during the evening as the trough lifts northeastward. ...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend... Though cooler/moist air to the east and north will limit the areal extent, elevated fire weather will occur within the Trans-Pecos and Big Bend Saturday afternoon. Moderate to strong mid-level winds will remain in the region during the afternoon and the surface low will also be deepest during the favorable diurnal heating maximum. Cloud cover should be minimal in this area given the presence of dry air aloft. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely along with RH of 5-20%. Areas of southeast New Mexico into the South Plains could see briefly elevated conditions, but uncertainty in duration is too great for highlights. ...Florida... Continued dry easterly flow will once again promote elevated fire weather along the western Peninsula during the afternoon. Models indicate winds could be slightly stronger than on Friday (10-15 mph). RH will fall to similar levels, however (25-35% anticipated by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z No changes were made to the forecast for Saturday. Some uncertainty remains in timing of cold front passage across the Trans-Pecos area affecting residence time of Elevated fire weather conditions. Higher confidence of an Elevated to a locally Critical fire weather threat will exist across the Big Bend area with southwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity dropping to below 10 percent at times, before conditions moderate for Saturday evening behind the cold front. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains on Saturday, though it will lose some amplitude during the period. A cold front will continue southward into more of the southern High Plains and eventually the Permian Basin. A surface low near the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will deepen during the day before weakening during the evening as the trough lifts northeastward. ...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend... Though cooler/moist air to the east and north will limit the areal extent, elevated fire weather will occur within the Trans-Pecos and Big Bend Saturday afternoon. Moderate to strong mid-level winds will remain in the region during the afternoon and the surface low will also be deepest during the favorable diurnal heating maximum. Cloud cover should be minimal in this area given the presence of dry air aloft. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely along with RH of 5-20%. Areas of southeast New Mexico into the South Plains could see briefly elevated conditions, but uncertainty in duration is too great for highlights. ...Florida... Continued dry easterly flow will once again promote elevated fire weather along the western Peninsula during the afternoon. Models indicate winds could be slightly stronger than on Friday (10-15 mph). RH will fall to similar levels, however (25-35% anticipated by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0233 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z No changes were made to the forecast for Saturday. Some uncertainty remains in timing of cold front passage across the Trans-Pecos area affecting residence time of Elevated fire weather conditions. Higher confidence of an Elevated to a locally Critical fire weather threat will exist across the Big Bend area with southwest winds of 15-20 mph and relative humidity dropping to below 10 percent at times, before conditions moderate for Saturday evening behind the cold front. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains on Saturday, though it will lose some amplitude during the period. A cold front will continue southward into more of the southern High Plains and eventually the Permian Basin. A surface low near the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will deepen during the day before weakening during the evening as the trough lifts northeastward. ...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend... Though cooler/moist air to the east and north will limit the areal extent, elevated fire weather will occur within the Trans-Pecos and Big Bend Saturday afternoon. Moderate to strong mid-level winds will remain in the region during the afternoon and the surface low will also be deepest during the favorable diurnal heating maximum. Cloud cover should be minimal in this area given the presence of dry air aloft. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely along with RH of 5-20%. Areas of southeast New Mexico into the South Plains could see briefly elevated conditions, but uncertainty in duration is too great for highlights. ...Florida... Continued dry easterly flow will once again promote elevated fire weather along the western Peninsula during the afternoon. Models indicate winds could be slightly stronger than on Friday (10-15 mph). RH will fall to similar levels, however (25-35% anticipated by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will support fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over central and northern Missouri into far western Illinois. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Models are in relatively good agreement depicting a negative-tilt shortwave trough and upper low moving northeastward from the TX Panhandle Sunday morning into IA by 00Z. The leading speed max will be compact but intense, resulting in rapid height falls across KS/MO/IA/IL. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from eastern OK into IA, with a cold front extending south from the low and sweeping eastward across MO, AR, and southeast IA during the day. As the low develops northward, a warm front will surge north across far eastern KS, MO and IL, with low 60s F dewpoints possible. Heating will occur as well, resulting in MUCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg. Although instability will not be particularly high, shear profiles will become quite strong, supporting supercells with tornado potential. Several models indicate cells along a line and/or QLCS type structures with activity moving rapidly across the area, in a region with over 300 m2/s2 ESRH. Storms may form before noon across far eastern KS and OK, with a maturing line of severe storms into western MO and northwest AR by 21Z. Damaging wind and isolated tornado risk will peak during the late afternoon or early evening, supported by the fast-moving shortwave trough. Depending on instability trends, sig/hatching could be added in later updates. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over central and northern Missouri into far western Illinois. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Models are in relatively good agreement depicting a negative-tilt shortwave trough and upper low moving northeastward from the TX Panhandle Sunday morning into IA by 00Z. The leading speed max will be compact but intense, resulting in rapid height falls across KS/MO/IA/IL. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from eastern OK into IA, with a cold front extending south from the low and sweeping eastward across MO, AR, and southeast IA during the day. As the low develops northward, a warm front will surge north across far eastern KS, MO and IL, with low 60s F dewpoints possible. Heating will occur as well, resulting in MUCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg. Although instability will not be particularly high, shear profiles will become quite strong, supporting supercells with tornado potential. Several models indicate cells along a line and/or QLCS type structures with activity moving rapidly across the area, in a region with over 300 m2/s2 ESRH. Storms may form before noon across far eastern KS and OK, with a maturing line of severe storms into western MO and northwest AR by 21Z. Damaging wind and isolated tornado risk will peak during the late afternoon or early evening, supported by the fast-moving shortwave trough. Depending on instability trends, sig/hatching could be added in later updates. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over central and northern Missouri into far western Illinois. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Models are in relatively good agreement depicting a negative-tilt shortwave trough and upper low moving northeastward from the TX Panhandle Sunday morning into IA by 00Z. The leading speed max will be compact but intense, resulting in rapid height falls across KS/MO/IA/IL. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from eastern OK into IA, with a cold front extending south from the low and sweeping eastward across MO, AR, and southeast IA during the day. As the low develops northward, a warm front will surge north across far eastern KS, MO and IL, with low 60s F dewpoints possible. Heating will occur as well, resulting in MUCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg. Although instability will not be particularly high, shear profiles will become quite strong, supporting supercells with tornado potential. Several models indicate cells along a line and/or QLCS type structures with activity moving rapidly across the area, in a region with over 300 m2/s2 ESRH. Storms may form before noon across far eastern KS and OK, with a maturing line of severe storms into western MO and northwest AR by 21Z. Damaging wind and isolated tornado risk will peak during the late afternoon or early evening, supported by the fast-moving shortwave trough. Depending on instability trends, sig/hatching could be added in later updates. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over central and northern Missouri into far western Illinois. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Models are in relatively good agreement depicting a negative-tilt shortwave trough and upper low moving northeastward from the TX Panhandle Sunday morning into IA by 00Z. The leading speed max will be compact but intense, resulting in rapid height falls across KS/MO/IA/IL. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from eastern OK into IA, with a cold front extending south from the low and sweeping eastward across MO, AR, and southeast IA during the day. As the low develops northward, a warm front will surge north across far eastern KS, MO and IL, with low 60s F dewpoints possible. Heating will occur as well, resulting in MUCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg. Although instability will not be particularly high, shear profiles will become quite strong, supporting supercells with tornado potential. Several models indicate cells along a line and/or QLCS type structures with activity moving rapidly across the area, in a region with over 300 m2/s2 ESRH. Storms may form before noon across far eastern KS and OK, with a maturing line of severe storms into western MO and northwest AR by 21Z. Damaging wind and isolated tornado risk will peak during the late afternoon or early evening, supported by the fast-moving shortwave trough. Depending on instability trends, sig/hatching could be added in later updates. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over central and northern Missouri into far western Illinois. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Models are in relatively good agreement depicting a negative-tilt shortwave trough and upper low moving northeastward from the TX Panhandle Sunday morning into IA by 00Z. The leading speed max will be compact but intense, resulting in rapid height falls across KS/MO/IA/IL. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from eastern OK into IA, with a cold front extending south from the low and sweeping eastward across MO, AR, and southeast IA during the day. As the low develops northward, a warm front will surge north across far eastern KS, MO and IL, with low 60s F dewpoints possible. Heating will occur as well, resulting in MUCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg. Although instability will not be particularly high, shear profiles will become quite strong, supporting supercells with tornado potential. Several models indicate cells along a line and/or QLCS type structures with activity moving rapidly across the area, in a region with over 300 m2/s2 ESRH. Storms may form before noon across far eastern KS and OK, with a maturing line of severe storms into western MO and northwest AR by 21Z. Damaging wind and isolated tornado risk will peak during the late afternoon or early evening, supported by the fast-moving shortwave trough. Depending on instability trends, sig/hatching could be added in later updates. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over central and northern Missouri into far western Illinois. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Models are in relatively good agreement depicting a negative-tilt shortwave trough and upper low moving northeastward from the TX Panhandle Sunday morning into IA by 00Z. The leading speed max will be compact but intense, resulting in rapid height falls across KS/MO/IA/IL. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from eastern OK into IA, with a cold front extending south from the low and sweeping eastward across MO, AR, and southeast IA during the day. As the low develops northward, a warm front will surge north across far eastern KS, MO and IL, with low 60s F dewpoints possible. Heating will occur as well, resulting in MUCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg. Although instability will not be particularly high, shear profiles will become quite strong, supporting supercells with tornado potential. Several models indicate cells along a line and/or QLCS type structures with activity moving rapidly across the area, in a region with over 300 m2/s2 ESRH. Storms may form before noon across far eastern KS and OK, with a maturing line of severe storms into western MO and northwest AR by 21Z. Damaging wind and isolated tornado risk will peak during the late afternoon or early evening, supported by the fast-moving shortwave trough. Depending on instability trends, sig/hatching could be added in later updates. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2025 Read more