Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper shortwave trough will weaken as it spreads east/northeast from the Mid/Upper MS Valley to the Lower Great Lakes on Day 4/Mon. The associated surface low will likewise shift northeast from eastern IA/IL into Ontario, while a trailing cold front moves across much of the Midwest. Modest boundary-layer moisture will aid in weak destabilization and some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could develop across parts of the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. The southern extent of this front will stall across the Mid-South and Sabine Valley. Richer low-level moisture ahead of the surface boundary across parts of the South could support some thunderstorm risk as well, but nebulous forcing and weak vertical shear will limit severe potential. On Days 5-8/Tue-Fri, a low-amplitude, weak flow pattern is forecast. Southerly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport across OK/TX and vicinity. Diurnal thunderstorm activity could be possible each day given modest west/southwest flow atop a moist warm sector. However, a rather nondescript surface pattern amid weak large-scale forcing will likely preclude widespread severe potential, though localized areas of severe storms could still occur given favorable moisture/instability, particularly along any dryline features. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper shortwave trough will weaken as it spreads east/northeast from the Mid/Upper MS Valley to the Lower Great Lakes on Day 4/Mon. The associated surface low will likewise shift northeast from eastern IA/IL into Ontario, while a trailing cold front moves across much of the Midwest. Modest boundary-layer moisture will aid in weak destabilization and some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could develop across parts of the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. The southern extent of this front will stall across the Mid-South and Sabine Valley. Richer low-level moisture ahead of the surface boundary across parts of the South could support some thunderstorm risk as well, but nebulous forcing and weak vertical shear will limit severe potential. On Days 5-8/Tue-Fri, a low-amplitude, weak flow pattern is forecast. Southerly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport across OK/TX and vicinity. Diurnal thunderstorm activity could be possible each day given modest west/southwest flow atop a moist warm sector. However, a rather nondescript surface pattern amid weak large-scale forcing will likely preclude widespread severe potential, though localized areas of severe storms could still occur given favorable moisture/instability, particularly along any dryline features. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper shortwave trough will weaken as it spreads east/northeast from the Mid/Upper MS Valley to the Lower Great Lakes on Day 4/Mon. The associated surface low will likewise shift northeast from eastern IA/IL into Ontario, while a trailing cold front moves across much of the Midwest. Modest boundary-layer moisture will aid in weak destabilization and some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could develop across parts of the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. The southern extent of this front will stall across the Mid-South and Sabine Valley. Richer low-level moisture ahead of the surface boundary across parts of the South could support some thunderstorm risk as well, but nebulous forcing and weak vertical shear will limit severe potential. On Days 5-8/Tue-Fri, a low-amplitude, weak flow pattern is forecast. Southerly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport across OK/TX and vicinity. Diurnal thunderstorm activity could be possible each day given modest west/southwest flow atop a moist warm sector. However, a rather nondescript surface pattern amid weak large-scale forcing will likely preclude widespread severe potential, though localized areas of severe storms could still occur given favorable moisture/instability, particularly along any dryline features. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper shortwave trough will weaken as it spreads east/northeast from the Mid/Upper MS Valley to the Lower Great Lakes on Day 4/Mon. The associated surface low will likewise shift northeast from eastern IA/IL into Ontario, while a trailing cold front moves across much of the Midwest. Modest boundary-layer moisture will aid in weak destabilization and some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could develop across parts of the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. The southern extent of this front will stall across the Mid-South and Sabine Valley. Richer low-level moisture ahead of the surface boundary across parts of the South could support some thunderstorm risk as well, but nebulous forcing and weak vertical shear will limit severe potential. On Days 5-8/Tue-Fri, a low-amplitude, weak flow pattern is forecast. Southerly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport across OK/TX and vicinity. Diurnal thunderstorm activity could be possible each day given modest west/southwest flow atop a moist warm sector. However, a rather nondescript surface pattern amid weak large-scale forcing will likely preclude widespread severe potential, though localized areas of severe storms could still occur given favorable moisture/instability, particularly along any dryline features. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper shortwave trough will weaken as it spreads east/northeast from the Mid/Upper MS Valley to the Lower Great Lakes on Day 4/Mon. The associated surface low will likewise shift northeast from eastern IA/IL into Ontario, while a trailing cold front moves across much of the Midwest. Modest boundary-layer moisture will aid in weak destabilization and some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could develop across parts of the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. The southern extent of this front will stall across the Mid-South and Sabine Valley. Richer low-level moisture ahead of the surface boundary across parts of the South could support some thunderstorm risk as well, but nebulous forcing and weak vertical shear will limit severe potential. On Days 5-8/Tue-Fri, a low-amplitude, weak flow pattern is forecast. Southerly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport across OK/TX and vicinity. Diurnal thunderstorm activity could be possible each day given modest west/southwest flow atop a moist warm sector. However, a rather nondescript surface pattern amid weak large-scale forcing will likely preclude widespread severe potential, though localized areas of severe storms could still occur given favorable moisture/instability, particularly along any dryline features. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper shortwave trough will weaken as it spreads east/northeast from the Mid/Upper MS Valley to the Lower Great Lakes on Day 4/Mon. The associated surface low will likewise shift northeast from eastern IA/IL into Ontario, while a trailing cold front moves across much of the Midwest. Modest boundary-layer moisture will aid in weak destabilization and some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could develop across parts of the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. The southern extent of this front will stall across the Mid-South and Sabine Valley. Richer low-level moisture ahead of the surface boundary across parts of the South could support some thunderstorm risk as well, but nebulous forcing and weak vertical shear will limit severe potential. On Days 5-8/Tue-Fri, a low-amplitude, weak flow pattern is forecast. Southerly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport across OK/TX and vicinity. Diurnal thunderstorm activity could be possible each day given modest west/southwest flow atop a moist warm sector. However, a rather nondescript surface pattern amid weak large-scale forcing will likely preclude widespread severe potential, though localized areas of severe storms could still occur given favorable moisture/instability, particularly along any dryline features. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper shortwave trough will weaken as it spreads east/northeast from the Mid/Upper MS Valley to the Lower Great Lakes on Day 4/Mon. The associated surface low will likewise shift northeast from eastern IA/IL into Ontario, while a trailing cold front moves across much of the Midwest. Modest boundary-layer moisture will aid in weak destabilization and some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could develop across parts of the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. The southern extent of this front will stall across the Mid-South and Sabine Valley. Richer low-level moisture ahead of the surface boundary across parts of the South could support some thunderstorm risk as well, but nebulous forcing and weak vertical shear will limit severe potential. On Days 5-8/Tue-Fri, a low-amplitude, weak flow pattern is forecast. Southerly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport across OK/TX and vicinity. Diurnal thunderstorm activity could be possible each day given modest west/southwest flow atop a moist warm sector. However, a rather nondescript surface pattern amid weak large-scale forcing will likely preclude widespread severe potential, though localized areas of severe storms could still occur given favorable moisture/instability, particularly along any dryline features. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper shortwave trough will weaken as it spreads east/northeast from the Mid/Upper MS Valley to the Lower Great Lakes on Day 4/Mon. The associated surface low will likewise shift northeast from eastern IA/IL into Ontario, while a trailing cold front moves across much of the Midwest. Modest boundary-layer moisture will aid in weak destabilization and some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could develop across parts of the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. The southern extent of this front will stall across the Mid-South and Sabine Valley. Richer low-level moisture ahead of the surface boundary across parts of the South could support some thunderstorm risk as well, but nebulous forcing and weak vertical shear will limit severe potential. On Days 5-8/Tue-Fri, a low-amplitude, weak flow pattern is forecast. Southerly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport across OK/TX and vicinity. Diurnal thunderstorm activity could be possible each day given modest west/southwest flow atop a moist warm sector. However, a rather nondescript surface pattern amid weak large-scale forcing will likely preclude widespread severe potential, though localized areas of severe storms could still occur given favorable moisture/instability, particularly along any dryline features. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper shortwave trough will weaken as it spreads east/northeast from the Mid/Upper MS Valley to the Lower Great Lakes on Day 4/Mon. The associated surface low will likewise shift northeast from eastern IA/IL into Ontario, while a trailing cold front moves across much of the Midwest. Modest boundary-layer moisture will aid in weak destabilization and some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could develop across parts of the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. The southern extent of this front will stall across the Mid-South and Sabine Valley. Richer low-level moisture ahead of the surface boundary across parts of the South could support some thunderstorm risk as well, but nebulous forcing and weak vertical shear will limit severe potential. On Days 5-8/Tue-Fri, a low-amplitude, weak flow pattern is forecast. Southerly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport across OK/TX and vicinity. Diurnal thunderstorm activity could be possible each day given modest west/southwest flow atop a moist warm sector. However, a rather nondescript surface pattern amid weak large-scale forcing will likely preclude widespread severe potential, though localized areas of severe storms could still occur given favorable moisture/instability, particularly along any dryline features. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 211200Z - 261200Z ...DISCUSSION... An upper shortwave trough will weaken as it spreads east/northeast from the Mid/Upper MS Valley to the Lower Great Lakes on Day 4/Mon. The associated surface low will likewise shift northeast from eastern IA/IL into Ontario, while a trailing cold front moves across much of the Midwest. Modest boundary-layer moisture will aid in weak destabilization and some low-end severe thunderstorm risk could develop across parts of the Ohio Valley/Lower Great Lakes vicinity. The southern extent of this front will stall across the Mid-South and Sabine Valley. Richer low-level moisture ahead of the surface boundary across parts of the South could support some thunderstorm risk as well, but nebulous forcing and weak vertical shear will limit severe potential. On Days 5-8/Tue-Fri, a low-amplitude, weak flow pattern is forecast. Southerly low-level flow across the Gulf and southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport across OK/TX and vicinity. Diurnal thunderstorm activity could be possible each day given modest west/southwest flow atop a moist warm sector. However, a rather nondescript surface pattern amid weak large-scale forcing will likely preclude widespread severe potential, though localized areas of severe storms could still occur given favorable moisture/instability, particularly along any dryline features. Read more

MD 0465 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR NORTHERN IOWA
Mesoscale Discussion 0465 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Areas affected...Northern Iowa Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 180542Z - 180815Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A threat for marginally severe hail is expected over the next few hours across northern Iowa. Weather watch issuance appears unlikely. DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows west to southwest flow over the Upper Midwest, with some anticyclonic curvature. In spite of some ridging, the RAP suggests a minor shortwave trough is moving through Iowa. At the surface, a front extends northeastward across central Iowa. Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing to the northwest of the front in the vicinity of Sioux City, Iowa. RAP forecast soundings to the north of front over much of northern Iowa have an inversion up to near 800 mb. MUCAPE is up to 1500 J/kg with effective shear in the 50 to 60 knots range. 700-500 mb lapse rates are near 8 C/km. As warm advection continues overnight, this environment should support elevated supercell development. Supercells may be able to produce isolated large hail, but any threat is expected to remain isolated. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...DMX...FSD...OAX... LAT...LON 42289246 42249433 42179531 42229595 42539635 42729641 42889639 43239600 43429526 43449260 43179150 42459149 42289246 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from east Texas into the Middle Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas to the Middle Mississippi Valley... An upper trough over the central/southern Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO/Upper MS Valley through early Monday. At the surface, low pressure will migrate northeast from OK to WI as a cold front sweeps east across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley and the ArkLaTex vicinity. Ahead of the surface low and cold front, a warm front will lift northward across the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valley through Sunday evening. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a modestly moist warm sector ahead of the surface cold front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley. All severe hazards appear possible with potential for a mixed mode of supercells and linear segments. However, quite a bit of uncertainty remains regarding exact forecast details as several periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected across the region leading into Sunday. This could impact which areas see greater destabilization coincident with increasing southwesterly flow and stronger ascent. Furthermore, the ECMWF suite of forecast guidance is a slower and further south outlier compared to GFS/NAM guidance. As a result, the outlook area for Day 3/Sunday may continue to shift in the coming days as details become better resolved. ..Leitman.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from east Texas into the Middle Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas to the Middle Mississippi Valley... An upper trough over the central/southern Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO/Upper MS Valley through early Monday. At the surface, low pressure will migrate northeast from OK to WI as a cold front sweeps east across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley and the ArkLaTex vicinity. Ahead of the surface low and cold front, a warm front will lift northward across the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valley through Sunday evening. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a modestly moist warm sector ahead of the surface cold front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley. All severe hazards appear possible with potential for a mixed mode of supercells and linear segments. However, quite a bit of uncertainty remains regarding exact forecast details as several periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected across the region leading into Sunday. This could impact which areas see greater destabilization coincident with increasing southwesterly flow and stronger ascent. Furthermore, the ECMWF suite of forecast guidance is a slower and further south outlier compared to GFS/NAM guidance. As a result, the outlook area for Day 3/Sunday may continue to shift in the coming days as details become better resolved. ..Leitman.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from east Texas into the Middle Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas to the Middle Mississippi Valley... An upper trough over the central/southern Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO/Upper MS Valley through early Monday. At the surface, low pressure will migrate northeast from OK to WI as a cold front sweeps east across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley and the ArkLaTex vicinity. Ahead of the surface low and cold front, a warm front will lift northward across the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valley through Sunday evening. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a modestly moist warm sector ahead of the surface cold front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley. All severe hazards appear possible with potential for a mixed mode of supercells and linear segments. However, quite a bit of uncertainty remains regarding exact forecast details as several periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected across the region leading into Sunday. This could impact which areas see greater destabilization coincident with increasing southwesterly flow and stronger ascent. Furthermore, the ECMWF suite of forecast guidance is a slower and further south outlier compared to GFS/NAM guidance. As a result, the outlook area for Day 3/Sunday may continue to shift in the coming days as details become better resolved. ..Leitman.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from east Texas into the Middle Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas to the Middle Mississippi Valley... An upper trough over the central/southern Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO/Upper MS Valley through early Monday. At the surface, low pressure will migrate northeast from OK to WI as a cold front sweeps east across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley and the ArkLaTex vicinity. Ahead of the surface low and cold front, a warm front will lift northward across the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valley through Sunday evening. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a modestly moist warm sector ahead of the surface cold front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley. All severe hazards appear possible with potential for a mixed mode of supercells and linear segments. However, quite a bit of uncertainty remains regarding exact forecast details as several periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected across the region leading into Sunday. This could impact which areas see greater destabilization coincident with increasing southwesterly flow and stronger ascent. Furthermore, the ECMWF suite of forecast guidance is a slower and further south outlier compared to GFS/NAM guidance. As a result, the outlook area for Day 3/Sunday may continue to shift in the coming days as details become better resolved. ..Leitman.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from east Texas into the Middle Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas to the Middle Mississippi Valley... An upper trough over the central/southern Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO/Upper MS Valley through early Monday. At the surface, low pressure will migrate northeast from OK to WI as a cold front sweeps east across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley and the ArkLaTex vicinity. Ahead of the surface low and cold front, a warm front will lift northward across the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valley through Sunday evening. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a modestly moist warm sector ahead of the surface cold front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley. All severe hazards appear possible with potential for a mixed mode of supercells and linear segments. However, quite a bit of uncertainty remains regarding exact forecast details as several periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected across the region leading into Sunday. This could impact which areas see greater destabilization coincident with increasing southwesterly flow and stronger ascent. Furthermore, the ECMWF suite of forecast guidance is a slower and further south outlier compared to GFS/NAM guidance. As a result, the outlook area for Day 3/Sunday may continue to shift in the coming days as details become better resolved. ..Leitman.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from east Texas into the Middle Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas to the Middle Mississippi Valley... An upper trough over the central/southern Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO/Upper MS Valley through early Monday. At the surface, low pressure will migrate northeast from OK to WI as a cold front sweeps east across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley and the ArkLaTex vicinity. Ahead of the surface low and cold front, a warm front will lift northward across the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valley through Sunday evening. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a modestly moist warm sector ahead of the surface cold front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley. All severe hazards appear possible with potential for a mixed mode of supercells and linear segments. However, quite a bit of uncertainty remains regarding exact forecast details as several periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected across the region leading into Sunday. This could impact which areas see greater destabilization coincident with increasing southwesterly flow and stronger ascent. Furthermore, the ECMWF suite of forecast guidance is a slower and further south outlier compared to GFS/NAM guidance. As a result, the outlook area for Day 3/Sunday may continue to shift in the coming days as details become better resolved. ..Leitman.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from east Texas into the Middle Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas to the Middle Mississippi Valley... An upper trough over the central/southern Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO/Upper MS Valley through early Monday. At the surface, low pressure will migrate northeast from OK to WI as a cold front sweeps east across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley and the ArkLaTex vicinity. Ahead of the surface low and cold front, a warm front will lift northward across the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valley through Sunday evening. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a modestly moist warm sector ahead of the surface cold front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley. All severe hazards appear possible with potential for a mixed mode of supercells and linear segments. However, quite a bit of uncertainty remains regarding exact forecast details as several periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected across the region leading into Sunday. This could impact which areas see greater destabilization coincident with increasing southwesterly flow and stronger ascent. Furthermore, the ECMWF suite of forecast guidance is a slower and further south outlier compared to GFS/NAM guidance. As a result, the outlook area for Day 3/Sunday may continue to shift in the coming days as details become better resolved. ..Leitman.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from east Texas into the Middle Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas to the Middle Mississippi Valley... An upper trough over the central/southern Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO/Upper MS Valley through early Monday. At the surface, low pressure will migrate northeast from OK to WI as a cold front sweeps east across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley and the ArkLaTex vicinity. Ahead of the surface low and cold front, a warm front will lift northward across the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valley through Sunday evening. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a modestly moist warm sector ahead of the surface cold front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley. All severe hazards appear possible with potential for a mixed mode of supercells and linear segments. However, quite a bit of uncertainty remains regarding exact forecast details as several periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected across the region leading into Sunday. This could impact which areas see greater destabilization coincident with increasing southwesterly flow and stronger ascent. Furthermore, the ECMWF suite of forecast guidance is a slower and further south outlier compared to GFS/NAM guidance. As a result, the outlook area for Day 3/Sunday may continue to shift in the coming days as details become better resolved. ..Leitman.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from east Texas into the Middle Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas to the Middle Mississippi Valley... An upper trough over the central/southern Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO/Upper MS Valley through early Monday. At the surface, low pressure will migrate northeast from OK to WI as a cold front sweeps east across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley and the ArkLaTex vicinity. Ahead of the surface low and cold front, a warm front will lift northward across the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valley through Sunday evening. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a modestly moist warm sector ahead of the surface cold front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley. All severe hazards appear possible with potential for a mixed mode of supercells and linear segments. However, quite a bit of uncertainty remains regarding exact forecast details as several periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected across the region leading into Sunday. This could impact which areas see greater destabilization coincident with increasing southwesterly flow and stronger ascent. Furthermore, the ECMWF suite of forecast guidance is a slower and further south outlier compared to GFS/NAM guidance. As a result, the outlook area for Day 3/Sunday may continue to shift in the coming days as details become better resolved. ..Leitman.. 04/18/2025 Read more