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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over central and northern Missouri into far western Illinois. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Models are in relatively good agreement depicting a negative-tilt shortwave trough and upper low moving northeastward from the TX Panhandle Sunday morning into IA by 00Z. The leading speed max will be compact but intense, resulting in rapid height falls across KS/MO/IA/IL. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from eastern OK into IA, with a cold front extending south from the low and sweeping eastward across MO, AR, and southeast IA during the day. As the low develops northward, a warm front will surge north across far eastern KS, MO and IL, with low 60s F dewpoints possible. Heating will occur as well, resulting in MUCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg. Although instability will not be particularly high, shear profiles will become quite strong, supporting supercells with tornado potential. Several models indicate cells along a line and/or QLCS type structures with activity moving rapidly across the area, in a region with over 300 m2/s2 ESRH. Storms may form before noon across far eastern KS and OK, with a maturing line of severe storms into western MO and northwest AR by 21Z. Damaging wind and isolated tornado risk will peak during the late afternoon or early evening, supported by the fast-moving shortwave trough. Depending on instability trends, sig/hatching could be added in later updates. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over central and northern Missouri into far western Illinois. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Models are in relatively good agreement depicting a negative-tilt shortwave trough and upper low moving northeastward from the TX Panhandle Sunday morning into IA by 00Z. The leading speed max will be compact but intense, resulting in rapid height falls across KS/MO/IA/IL. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from eastern OK into IA, with a cold front extending south from the low and sweeping eastward across MO, AR, and southeast IA during the day. As the low develops northward, a warm front will surge north across far eastern KS, MO and IL, with low 60s F dewpoints possible. Heating will occur as well, resulting in MUCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg. Although instability will not be particularly high, shear profiles will become quite strong, supporting supercells with tornado potential. Several models indicate cells along a line and/or QLCS type structures with activity moving rapidly across the area, in a region with over 300 m2/s2 ESRH. Storms may form before noon across far eastern KS and OK, with a maturing line of severe storms into western MO and northwest AR by 21Z. Damaging wind and isolated tornado risk will peak during the late afternoon or early evening, supported by the fast-moving shortwave trough. Depending on instability trends, sig/hatching could be added in later updates. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over central and northern Missouri into far western Illinois. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Models are in relatively good agreement depicting a negative-tilt shortwave trough and upper low moving northeastward from the TX Panhandle Sunday morning into IA by 00Z. The leading speed max will be compact but intense, resulting in rapid height falls across KS/MO/IA/IL. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from eastern OK into IA, with a cold front extending south from the low and sweeping eastward across MO, AR, and southeast IA during the day. As the low develops northward, a warm front will surge north across far eastern KS, MO and IL, with low 60s F dewpoints possible. Heating will occur as well, resulting in MUCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg. Although instability will not be particularly high, shear profiles will become quite strong, supporting supercells with tornado potential. Several models indicate cells along a line and/or QLCS type structures with activity moving rapidly across the area, in a region with over 300 m2/s2 ESRH. Storms may form before noon across far eastern KS and OK, with a maturing line of severe storms into western MO and northwest AR by 21Z. Damaging wind and isolated tornado risk will peak during the late afternoon or early evening, supported by the fast-moving shortwave trough. Depending on instability trends, sig/hatching could be added in later updates. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over central and northern Missouri into far western Illinois. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Models are in relatively good agreement depicting a negative-tilt shortwave trough and upper low moving northeastward from the TX Panhandle Sunday morning into IA by 00Z. The leading speed max will be compact but intense, resulting in rapid height falls across KS/MO/IA/IL. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from eastern OK into IA, with a cold front extending south from the low and sweeping eastward across MO, AR, and southeast IA during the day. As the low develops northward, a warm front will surge north across far eastern KS, MO and IL, with low 60s F dewpoints possible. Heating will occur as well, resulting in MUCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg. Although instability will not be particularly high, shear profiles will become quite strong, supporting supercells with tornado potential. Several models indicate cells along a line and/or QLCS type structures with activity moving rapidly across the area, in a region with over 300 m2/s2 ESRH. Storms may form before noon across far eastern KS and OK, with a maturing line of severe storms into western MO and northwest AR by 21Z. Damaging wind and isolated tornado risk will peak during the late afternoon or early evening, supported by the fast-moving shortwave trough. Depending on instability trends, sig/hatching could be added in later updates. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over central and northern Missouri into far western Illinois. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Models are in relatively good agreement depicting a negative-tilt shortwave trough and upper low moving northeastward from the TX Panhandle Sunday morning into IA by 00Z. The leading speed max will be compact but intense, resulting in rapid height falls across KS/MO/IA/IL. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from eastern OK into IA, with a cold front extending south from the low and sweeping eastward across MO, AR, and southeast IA during the day. As the low develops northward, a warm front will surge north across far eastern KS, MO and IL, with low 60s F dewpoints possible. Heating will occur as well, resulting in MUCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg. Although instability will not be particularly high, shear profiles will become quite strong, supporting supercells with tornado potential. Several models indicate cells along a line and/or QLCS type structures with activity moving rapidly across the area, in a region with over 300 m2/s2 ESRH. Storms may form before noon across far eastern KS and OK, with a maturing line of severe storms into western MO and northwest AR by 21Z. Damaging wind and isolated tornado risk will peak during the late afternoon or early evening, supported by the fast-moving shortwave trough. Depending on instability trends, sig/hatching could be added in later updates. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0229 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO FAR WESTERN ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from east Texas into the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys. The greatest damaging wind and tornado potential will be over central and northern Missouri into far western Illinois. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Models are in relatively good agreement depicting a negative-tilt shortwave trough and upper low moving northeastward from the TX Panhandle Sunday morning into IA by 00Z. The leading speed max will be compact but intense, resulting in rapid height falls across KS/MO/IA/IL. At the surface, low pressure will deepen from eastern OK into IA, with a cold front extending south from the low and sweeping eastward across MO, AR, and southeast IA during the day. As the low develops northward, a warm front will surge north across far eastern KS, MO and IL, with low 60s F dewpoints possible. Heating will occur as well, resulting in MUCAPE of 750-1000 J/kg. Although instability will not be particularly high, shear profiles will become quite strong, supporting supercells with tornado potential. Several models indicate cells along a line and/or QLCS type structures with activity moving rapidly across the area, in a region with over 300 m2/s2 ESRH. Storms may form before noon across far eastern KS and OK, with a maturing line of severe storms into western MO and northwest AR by 21Z. Damaging wind and isolated tornado risk will peak during the late afternoon or early evening, supported by the fast-moving shortwave trough. Depending on instability trends, sig/hatching could be added in later updates. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly from Texas into southern Missouri on Saturday. Isolated strong storms may occur during the day across the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will fill slightly as it moves from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. Ahead of this feature a broad belt of strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the southern Plains into the Northeast, where a deepening upper low will develop into Quebec. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain situated over the Southeast. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from the northeastern states southwestward across the OH Valley and into northwest TX. The New England portion of this boundary will push east as a cold front during the day, with scattered convection in a weak instability but strong mean wind environment. The OH Valley portion of the front will be stationary, but a narrow band of instability will exist along it. Glancing warm advection with west/southwest winds and heating may yield a few thunderstorms, but sounding show relatively weak instability or overall severe potential. ...TX into southern MO and into the OH Valley... Early day storms are likely to exist from eastern OK into MO and extending north of the OH River, in a zone of low-level theta-e advection. Marginal hail cannot be ruled out over southern parts of this regime where elevated instability will be stronger, but overall it appears widespread rain may reduce severe potential at that time. To the south, stronger instability will exist from OK into TX, with a destabilizing warm sector south of the quasi-stationary front. This front will extend roughly from eastern OK into southwest TX through the period, with substantial moisture flux northward into the lifting zone. As such, midday development is likely over much of west-central/northwest TX with expanding coverage across the remainder of northern TX, OK, and southern MO. Areas of elevated hail cannot be ruled out anywhere north of the front given strong deep-layer shear. Supercells with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado prior to cold front surge are expected during the late afternoon over west-central TX south of the cold front, and perhaps as far north as the Red River as the low-level jet increases during the evening. Overnight, another round of storms will occur over western and central TX as the deeper cold front arrives coincident with the shortwave. Both damaging winds and embedded hail cores are expected with a linear storm mode. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly from Texas into southern Missouri on Saturday. Isolated strong storms may occur during the day across the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will fill slightly as it moves from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. Ahead of this feature a broad belt of strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the southern Plains into the Northeast, where a deepening upper low will develop into Quebec. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain situated over the Southeast. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from the northeastern states southwestward across the OH Valley and into northwest TX. The New England portion of this boundary will push east as a cold front during the day, with scattered convection in a weak instability but strong mean wind environment. The OH Valley portion of the front will be stationary, but a narrow band of instability will exist along it. Glancing warm advection with west/southwest winds and heating may yield a few thunderstorms, but sounding show relatively weak instability or overall severe potential. ...TX into southern MO and into the OH Valley... Early day storms are likely to exist from eastern OK into MO and extending north of the OH River, in a zone of low-level theta-e advection. Marginal hail cannot be ruled out over southern parts of this regime where elevated instability will be stronger, but overall it appears widespread rain may reduce severe potential at that time. To the south, stronger instability will exist from OK into TX, with a destabilizing warm sector south of the quasi-stationary front. This front will extend roughly from eastern OK into southwest TX through the period, with substantial moisture flux northward into the lifting zone. As such, midday development is likely over much of west-central/northwest TX with expanding coverage across the remainder of northern TX, OK, and southern MO. Areas of elevated hail cannot be ruled out anywhere north of the front given strong deep-layer shear. Supercells with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado prior to cold front surge are expected during the late afternoon over west-central TX south of the cold front, and perhaps as far north as the Red River as the low-level jet increases during the evening. Overnight, another round of storms will occur over western and central TX as the deeper cold front arrives coincident with the shortwave. Both damaging winds and embedded hail cores are expected with a linear storm mode. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly from Texas into southern Missouri on Saturday. Isolated strong storms may occur during the day across the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will fill slightly as it moves from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. Ahead of this feature a broad belt of strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the southern Plains into the Northeast, where a deepening upper low will develop into Quebec. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain situated over the Southeast. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from the northeastern states southwestward across the OH Valley and into northwest TX. The New England portion of this boundary will push east as a cold front during the day, with scattered convection in a weak instability but strong mean wind environment. The OH Valley portion of the front will be stationary, but a narrow band of instability will exist along it. Glancing warm advection with west/southwest winds and heating may yield a few thunderstorms, but sounding show relatively weak instability or overall severe potential. ...TX into southern MO and into the OH Valley... Early day storms are likely to exist from eastern OK into MO and extending north of the OH River, in a zone of low-level theta-e advection. Marginal hail cannot be ruled out over southern parts of this regime where elevated instability will be stronger, but overall it appears widespread rain may reduce severe potential at that time. To the south, stronger instability will exist from OK into TX, with a destabilizing warm sector south of the quasi-stationary front. This front will extend roughly from eastern OK into southwest TX through the period, with substantial moisture flux northward into the lifting zone. As such, midday development is likely over much of west-central/northwest TX with expanding coverage across the remainder of northern TX, OK, and southern MO. Areas of elevated hail cannot be ruled out anywhere north of the front given strong deep-layer shear. Supercells with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado prior to cold front surge are expected during the late afternoon over west-central TX south of the cold front, and perhaps as far north as the Red River as the low-level jet increases during the evening. Overnight, another round of storms will occur over western and central TX as the deeper cold front arrives coincident with the shortwave. Both damaging winds and embedded hail cores are expected with a linear storm mode. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly from Texas into southern Missouri on Saturday. Isolated strong storms may occur during the day across the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will fill slightly as it moves from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. Ahead of this feature a broad belt of strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the southern Plains into the Northeast, where a deepening upper low will develop into Quebec. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain situated over the Southeast. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from the northeastern states southwestward across the OH Valley and into northwest TX. The New England portion of this boundary will push east as a cold front during the day, with scattered convection in a weak instability but strong mean wind environment. The OH Valley portion of the front will be stationary, but a narrow band of instability will exist along it. Glancing warm advection with west/southwest winds and heating may yield a few thunderstorms, but sounding show relatively weak instability or overall severe potential. ...TX into southern MO and into the OH Valley... Early day storms are likely to exist from eastern OK into MO and extending north of the OH River, in a zone of low-level theta-e advection. Marginal hail cannot be ruled out over southern parts of this regime where elevated instability will be stronger, but overall it appears widespread rain may reduce severe potential at that time. To the south, stronger instability will exist from OK into TX, with a destabilizing warm sector south of the quasi-stationary front. This front will extend roughly from eastern OK into southwest TX through the period, with substantial moisture flux northward into the lifting zone. As such, midday development is likely over much of west-central/northwest TX with expanding coverage across the remainder of northern TX, OK, and southern MO. Areas of elevated hail cannot be ruled out anywhere north of the front given strong deep-layer shear. Supercells with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado prior to cold front surge are expected during the late afternoon over west-central TX south of the cold front, and perhaps as far north as the Red River as the low-level jet increases during the evening. Overnight, another round of storms will occur over western and central TX as the deeper cold front arrives coincident with the shortwave. Both damaging winds and embedded hail cores are expected with a linear storm mode. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly from Texas into southern Missouri on Saturday. Isolated strong storms may occur during the day across the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will fill slightly as it moves from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. Ahead of this feature a broad belt of strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the southern Plains into the Northeast, where a deepening upper low will develop into Quebec. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain situated over the Southeast. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from the northeastern states southwestward across the OH Valley and into northwest TX. The New England portion of this boundary will push east as a cold front during the day, with scattered convection in a weak instability but strong mean wind environment. The OH Valley portion of the front will be stationary, but a narrow band of instability will exist along it. Glancing warm advection with west/southwest winds and heating may yield a few thunderstorms, but sounding show relatively weak instability or overall severe potential. ...TX into southern MO and into the OH Valley... Early day storms are likely to exist from eastern OK into MO and extending north of the OH River, in a zone of low-level theta-e advection. Marginal hail cannot be ruled out over southern parts of this regime where elevated instability will be stronger, but overall it appears widespread rain may reduce severe potential at that time. To the south, stronger instability will exist from OK into TX, with a destabilizing warm sector south of the quasi-stationary front. This front will extend roughly from eastern OK into southwest TX through the period, with substantial moisture flux northward into the lifting zone. As such, midday development is likely over much of west-central/northwest TX with expanding coverage across the remainder of northern TX, OK, and southern MO. Areas of elevated hail cannot be ruled out anywhere north of the front given strong deep-layer shear. Supercells with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado prior to cold front surge are expected during the late afternoon over west-central TX south of the cold front, and perhaps as far north as the Red River as the low-level jet increases during the evening. Overnight, another round of storms will occur over western and central TX as the deeper cold front arrives coincident with the shortwave. Both damaging winds and embedded hail cores are expected with a linear storm mode. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly from Texas into southern Missouri on Saturday. Isolated strong storms may occur during the day across the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will fill slightly as it moves from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. Ahead of this feature a broad belt of strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the southern Plains into the Northeast, where a deepening upper low will develop into Quebec. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain situated over the Southeast. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from the northeastern states southwestward across the OH Valley and into northwest TX. The New England portion of this boundary will push east as a cold front during the day, with scattered convection in a weak instability but strong mean wind environment. The OH Valley portion of the front will be stationary, but a narrow band of instability will exist along it. Glancing warm advection with west/southwest winds and heating may yield a few thunderstorms, but sounding show relatively weak instability or overall severe potential. ...TX into southern MO and into the OH Valley... Early day storms are likely to exist from eastern OK into MO and extending north of the OH River, in a zone of low-level theta-e advection. Marginal hail cannot be ruled out over southern parts of this regime where elevated instability will be stronger, but overall it appears widespread rain may reduce severe potential at that time. To the south, stronger instability will exist from OK into TX, with a destabilizing warm sector south of the quasi-stationary front. This front will extend roughly from eastern OK into southwest TX through the period, with substantial moisture flux northward into the lifting zone. As such, midday development is likely over much of west-central/northwest TX with expanding coverage across the remainder of northern TX, OK, and southern MO. Areas of elevated hail cannot be ruled out anywhere north of the front given strong deep-layer shear. Supercells with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado prior to cold front surge are expected during the late afternoon over west-central TX south of the cold front, and perhaps as far north as the Red River as the low-level jet increases during the evening. Overnight, another round of storms will occur over western and central TX as the deeper cold front arrives coincident with the shortwave. Both damaging winds and embedded hail cores are expected with a linear storm mode. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly from Texas into southern Missouri on Saturday. Isolated strong storms may occur during the day across the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will fill slightly as it moves from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. Ahead of this feature a broad belt of strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the southern Plains into the Northeast, where a deepening upper low will develop into Quebec. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain situated over the Southeast. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from the northeastern states southwestward across the OH Valley and into northwest TX. The New England portion of this boundary will push east as a cold front during the day, with scattered convection in a weak instability but strong mean wind environment. The OH Valley portion of the front will be stationary, but a narrow band of instability will exist along it. Glancing warm advection with west/southwest winds and heating may yield a few thunderstorms, but sounding show relatively weak instability or overall severe potential. ...TX into southern MO and into the OH Valley... Early day storms are likely to exist from eastern OK into MO and extending north of the OH River, in a zone of low-level theta-e advection. Marginal hail cannot be ruled out over southern parts of this regime where elevated instability will be stronger, but overall it appears widespread rain may reduce severe potential at that time. To the south, stronger instability will exist from OK into TX, with a destabilizing warm sector south of the quasi-stationary front. This front will extend roughly from eastern OK into southwest TX through the period, with substantial moisture flux northward into the lifting zone. As such, midday development is likely over much of west-central/northwest TX with expanding coverage across the remainder of northern TX, OK, and southern MO. Areas of elevated hail cannot be ruled out anywhere north of the front given strong deep-layer shear. Supercells with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado prior to cold front surge are expected during the late afternoon over west-central TX south of the cold front, and perhaps as far north as the Red River as the low-level jet increases during the evening. Overnight, another round of storms will occur over western and central TX as the deeper cold front arrives coincident with the shortwave. Both damaging winds and embedded hail cores are expected with a linear storm mode. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly from Texas into southern Missouri on Saturday. Isolated strong storms may occur during the day across the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will fill slightly as it moves from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. Ahead of this feature a broad belt of strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the southern Plains into the Northeast, where a deepening upper low will develop into Quebec. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain situated over the Southeast. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from the northeastern states southwestward across the OH Valley and into northwest TX. The New England portion of this boundary will push east as a cold front during the day, with scattered convection in a weak instability but strong mean wind environment. The OH Valley portion of the front will be stationary, but a narrow band of instability will exist along it. Glancing warm advection with west/southwest winds and heating may yield a few thunderstorms, but sounding show relatively weak instability or overall severe potential. ...TX into southern MO and into the OH Valley... Early day storms are likely to exist from eastern OK into MO and extending north of the OH River, in a zone of low-level theta-e advection. Marginal hail cannot be ruled out over southern parts of this regime where elevated instability will be stronger, but overall it appears widespread rain may reduce severe potential at that time. To the south, stronger instability will exist from OK into TX, with a destabilizing warm sector south of the quasi-stationary front. This front will extend roughly from eastern OK into southwest TX through the period, with substantial moisture flux northward into the lifting zone. As such, midday development is likely over much of west-central/northwest TX with expanding coverage across the remainder of northern TX, OK, and southern MO. Areas of elevated hail cannot be ruled out anywhere north of the front given strong deep-layer shear. Supercells with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado prior to cold front surge are expected during the late afternoon over west-central TX south of the cold front, and perhaps as far north as the Red River as the low-level jet increases during the evening. Overnight, another round of storms will occur over western and central TX as the deeper cold front arrives coincident with the shortwave. Both damaging winds and embedded hail cores are expected with a linear storm mode. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly from Texas into southern Missouri on Saturday. Isolated strong storms may occur during the day across the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will fill slightly as it moves from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. Ahead of this feature a broad belt of strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the southern Plains into the Northeast, where a deepening upper low will develop into Quebec. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain situated over the Southeast. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from the northeastern states southwestward across the OH Valley and into northwest TX. The New England portion of this boundary will push east as a cold front during the day, with scattered convection in a weak instability but strong mean wind environment. The OH Valley portion of the front will be stationary, but a narrow band of instability will exist along it. Glancing warm advection with west/southwest winds and heating may yield a few thunderstorms, but sounding show relatively weak instability or overall severe potential. ...TX into southern MO and into the OH Valley... Early day storms are likely to exist from eastern OK into MO and extending north of the OH River, in a zone of low-level theta-e advection. Marginal hail cannot be ruled out over southern parts of this regime where elevated instability will be stronger, but overall it appears widespread rain may reduce severe potential at that time. To the south, stronger instability will exist from OK into TX, with a destabilizing warm sector south of the quasi-stationary front. This front will extend roughly from eastern OK into southwest TX through the period, with substantial moisture flux northward into the lifting zone. As such, midday development is likely over much of west-central/northwest TX with expanding coverage across the remainder of northern TX, OK, and southern MO. Areas of elevated hail cannot be ruled out anywhere north of the front given strong deep-layer shear. Supercells with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado prior to cold front surge are expected during the late afternoon over west-central TX south of the cold front, and perhaps as far north as the Red River as the low-level jet increases during the evening. Overnight, another round of storms will occur over western and central TX as the deeper cold front arrives coincident with the shortwave. Both damaging winds and embedded hail cores are expected with a linear storm mode. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TEXAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible mainly from Texas into southern Missouri on Saturday. Isolated strong storms may occur during the day across the Ohio Valley. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will fill slightly as it moves from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. Ahead of this feature a broad belt of strong southwest flow aloft will extend from the southern Plains into the Northeast, where a deepening upper low will develop into Quebec. Meanwhile, an upper ridge will remain situated over the Southeast. At the surface, a boundary will stretch from the northeastern states southwestward across the OH Valley and into northwest TX. The New England portion of this boundary will push east as a cold front during the day, with scattered convection in a weak instability but strong mean wind environment. The OH Valley portion of the front will be stationary, but a narrow band of instability will exist along it. Glancing warm advection with west/southwest winds and heating may yield a few thunderstorms, but sounding show relatively weak instability or overall severe potential. ...TX into southern MO and into the OH Valley... Early day storms are likely to exist from eastern OK into MO and extending north of the OH River, in a zone of low-level theta-e advection. Marginal hail cannot be ruled out over southern parts of this regime where elevated instability will be stronger, but overall it appears widespread rain may reduce severe potential at that time. To the south, stronger instability will exist from OK into TX, with a destabilizing warm sector south of the quasi-stationary front. This front will extend roughly from eastern OK into southwest TX through the period, with substantial moisture flux northward into the lifting zone. As such, midday development is likely over much of west-central/northwest TX with expanding coverage across the remainder of northern TX, OK, and southern MO. Areas of elevated hail cannot be ruled out anywhere north of the front given strong deep-layer shear. Supercells with very large hail and perhaps a brief tornado prior to cold front surge are expected during the late afternoon over west-central TX south of the cold front, and perhaps as far north as the Red River as the low-level jet increases during the evening. Overnight, another round of storms will occur over western and central TX as the deeper cold front arrives coincident with the shortwave. Both damaging winds and embedded hail cores are expected with a linear storm mode. ..Jewell.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...1630 Update... A faster southward progression of a backdoor cold front across the Texas Panhandle as far south as US-70 has temporarily mitigated fire weather concerns across the area. However, some northeastward retreat and daytime mixing should allow dry southwest flow to return to portions of northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle supporting at least a brief period of Elevated fire weather conditions to emerge within this zone. The Critical fire weather threat will continue for much of southeastern New Mexico. Eastern extent of Elevated highlights were trimmed along the Florida Atlantic Coast as higher dewpoints/relative humidity accompany southeasterly onshore flow. Farther inland however, Elevated fire weather conditions expected with east-southeast winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping into the 35-40 percent range this afternoon amid increasingly dry fuels. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially in the Great Basin will move towards the Four Corners region today. A modest surface low in eastern New Mexico into West Texas will develop during the day. A cold front will continue to make southward progress into the southern Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are again expected during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow across the Southwest and southern Plains and a modest surface low along the Texas/New Mexico border will drive 15-20 mph (up to 25 mph in the terrain) surface winds by the afternoon. RH will be slightly higher than Thursday on account of mid/upper-level clouds. Values of around 10% may occur, but will occur on a relatively local basis. 15-20% will be more common. The driest fuels will be in New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. Farther east in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains, transitional/greening fuels will mitigate fire weather concerns even with similarly dry and windy conditions. ...Florida... Easterly winds of around 10 mph appear possible during the afternoon. RH of 25-35% can be expected along the western Peninsula. With dry fuels (current ERC data showing some locations above the 90th percentile), elevated fire weather is likely this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...1630 Update... A faster southward progression of a backdoor cold front across the Texas Panhandle as far south as US-70 has temporarily mitigated fire weather concerns across the area. However, some northeastward retreat and daytime mixing should allow dry southwest flow to return to portions of northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle supporting at least a brief period of Elevated fire weather conditions to emerge within this zone. The Critical fire weather threat will continue for much of southeastern New Mexico. Eastern extent of Elevated highlights were trimmed along the Florida Atlantic Coast as higher dewpoints/relative humidity accompany southeasterly onshore flow. Farther inland however, Elevated fire weather conditions expected with east-southeast winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping into the 35-40 percent range this afternoon amid increasingly dry fuels. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially in the Great Basin will move towards the Four Corners region today. A modest surface low in eastern New Mexico into West Texas will develop during the day. A cold front will continue to make southward progress into the southern Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are again expected during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow across the Southwest and southern Plains and a modest surface low along the Texas/New Mexico border will drive 15-20 mph (up to 25 mph in the terrain) surface winds by the afternoon. RH will be slightly higher than Thursday on account of mid/upper-level clouds. Values of around 10% may occur, but will occur on a relatively local basis. 15-20% will be more common. The driest fuels will be in New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. Farther east in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains, transitional/greening fuels will mitigate fire weather concerns even with similarly dry and windy conditions. ...Florida... Easterly winds of around 10 mph appear possible during the afternoon. RH of 25-35% can be expected along the western Peninsula. With dry fuels (current ERC data showing some locations above the 90th percentile), elevated fire weather is likely this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1137 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181700Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...1630 Update... A faster southward progression of a backdoor cold front across the Texas Panhandle as far south as US-70 has temporarily mitigated fire weather concerns across the area. However, some northeastward retreat and daytime mixing should allow dry southwest flow to return to portions of northeastern New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle supporting at least a brief period of Elevated fire weather conditions to emerge within this zone. The Critical fire weather threat will continue for much of southeastern New Mexico. Eastern extent of Elevated highlights were trimmed along the Florida Atlantic Coast as higher dewpoints/relative humidity accompany southeasterly onshore flow. Farther inland however, Elevated fire weather conditions expected with east-southeast winds of 10-15 mph and relative humidity dropping into the 35-40 percent range this afternoon amid increasingly dry fuels. ..Williams/Lyons.. 04/18/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially in the Great Basin will move towards the Four Corners region today. A modest surface low in eastern New Mexico into West Texas will develop during the day. A cold front will continue to make southward progress into the southern Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are again expected during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow across the Southwest and southern Plains and a modest surface low along the Texas/New Mexico border will drive 15-20 mph (up to 25 mph in the terrain) surface winds by the afternoon. RH will be slightly higher than Thursday on account of mid/upper-level clouds. Values of around 10% may occur, but will occur on a relatively local basis. 15-20% will be more common. The driest fuels will be in New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. Farther east in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains, transitional/greening fuels will mitigate fire weather concerns even with similarly dry and windy conditions. ...Florida... Easterly winds of around 10 mph appear possible during the afternoon. RH of 25-35% can be expected along the western Peninsula. With dry fuels (current ERC data showing some locations above the 90th percentile), elevated fire weather is likely this afternoon. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more