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SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from east Texas into the Middle Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas to the Middle Mississippi Valley... An upper trough over the central/southern Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO/Upper MS Valley through early Monday. At the surface, low pressure will migrate northeast from OK to WI as a cold front sweeps east across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley and the ArkLaTex vicinity. Ahead of the surface low and cold front, a warm front will lift northward across the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valley through Sunday evening. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a modestly moist warm sector ahead of the surface cold front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley. All severe hazards appear possible with potential for a mixed mode of supercells and linear segments. However, quite a bit of uncertainty remains regarding exact forecast details as several periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected across the region leading into Sunday. This could impact which areas see greater destabilization coincident with increasing southwesterly flow and stronger ascent. Furthermore, the ECMWF suite of forecast guidance is a slower and further south outlier compared to GFS/NAM guidance. As a result, the outlook area for Day 3/Sunday may continue to shift in the coming days as details become better resolved. ..Leitman.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from east Texas into the Middle Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas to the Middle Mississippi Valley... An upper trough over the central/southern Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO/Upper MS Valley through early Monday. At the surface, low pressure will migrate northeast from OK to WI as a cold front sweeps east across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley and the ArkLaTex vicinity. Ahead of the surface low and cold front, a warm front will lift northward across the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valley through Sunday evening. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a modestly moist warm sector ahead of the surface cold front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley. All severe hazards appear possible with potential for a mixed mode of supercells and linear segments. However, quite a bit of uncertainty remains regarding exact forecast details as several periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected across the region leading into Sunday. This could impact which areas see greater destabilization coincident with increasing southwesterly flow and stronger ascent. Furthermore, the ECMWF suite of forecast guidance is a slower and further south outlier compared to GFS/NAM guidance. As a result, the outlook area for Day 3/Sunday may continue to shift in the coming days as details become better resolved. ..Leitman.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from east Texas into the Middle Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas to the Middle Mississippi Valley... An upper trough over the central/southern Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO/Upper MS Valley through early Monday. At the surface, low pressure will migrate northeast from OK to WI as a cold front sweeps east across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley and the ArkLaTex vicinity. Ahead of the surface low and cold front, a warm front will lift northward across the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valley through Sunday evening. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a modestly moist warm sector ahead of the surface cold front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley. All severe hazards appear possible with potential for a mixed mode of supercells and linear segments. However, quite a bit of uncertainty remains regarding exact forecast details as several periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected across the region leading into Sunday. This could impact which areas see greater destabilization coincident with increasing southwesterly flow and stronger ascent. Furthermore, the ECMWF suite of forecast guidance is a slower and further south outlier compared to GFS/NAM guidance. As a result, the outlook area for Day 3/Sunday may continue to shift in the coming days as details become better resolved. ..Leitman.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from east Texas into the Middle Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas to the Middle Mississippi Valley... An upper trough over the central/southern Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO/Upper MS Valley through early Monday. At the surface, low pressure will migrate northeast from OK to WI as a cold front sweeps east across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley and the ArkLaTex vicinity. Ahead of the surface low and cold front, a warm front will lift northward across the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valley through Sunday evening. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a modestly moist warm sector ahead of the surface cold front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley. All severe hazards appear possible with potential for a mixed mode of supercells and linear segments. However, quite a bit of uncertainty remains regarding exact forecast details as several periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected across the region leading into Sunday. This could impact which areas see greater destabilization coincident with increasing southwesterly flow and stronger ascent. Furthermore, the ECMWF suite of forecast guidance is a slower and further south outlier compared to GFS/NAM guidance. As a result, the outlook area for Day 3/Sunday may continue to shift in the coming days as details become better resolved. ..Leitman.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0203 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from east Texas into the Middle Mississippi Valley. ...East Texas to the Middle Mississippi Valley... An upper trough over the central/southern Plains Sunday morning will lift northeast across the Mid-MO/Upper MS Valley through early Monday. At the surface, low pressure will migrate northeast from OK to WI as a cold front sweeps east across portions of the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley and the ArkLaTex vicinity. Ahead of the surface low and cold front, a warm front will lift northward across the Mid-MS and Lower OH Valley through Sunday evening. Moderate deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a modestly moist warm sector ahead of the surface cold front should support some risk for severe thunderstorms from the ArkLaTex into the Mid-MS Valley. All severe hazards appear possible with potential for a mixed mode of supercells and linear segments. However, quite a bit of uncertainty remains regarding exact forecast details as several periods of heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected across the region leading into Sunday. This could impact which areas see greater destabilization coincident with increasing southwesterly flow and stronger ascent. Furthermore, the ECMWF suite of forecast guidance is a slower and further south outlier compared to GFS/NAM guidance. As a result, the outlook area for Day 3/Sunday may continue to shift in the coming days as details become better resolved. ..Leitman.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains on Saturday, though it will lose some amplitude during the period. A cold front will continue southward into more of the southern High Plains and eventually the Permian Basin. A surface low near the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will deepen during the day before weakening during the evening as the trough lifts northeastward. ...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend... Though cooler/moist air to the east and north will limit the areal extent, elevated fire weather will occur within the Trans-Pecos and Big Bend Saturday afternoon. Moderate to strong mid-level winds will remain in the region during the afternoon and the surface low will also be deepest during the favorable diurnal heating maximum. Cloud cover should be minimal in this area given the presence of dry air aloft. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely along with RH of 5-20%. Areas of southeast New Mexico into the South Plains could see briefly elevated conditions, but uncertainty in duration is too great for highlights. ...Florida... Continued dry easterly flow will once again promote elevated fire weather along the western Peninsula during the afternoon. Models indicate winds could be slightly stronger than on Friday (10-15 mph). RH will fall to similar levels, however (25-35% anticipated by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains on Saturday, though it will lose some amplitude during the period. A cold front will continue southward into more of the southern High Plains and eventually the Permian Basin. A surface low near the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will deepen during the day before weakening during the evening as the trough lifts northeastward. ...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend... Though cooler/moist air to the east and north will limit the areal extent, elevated fire weather will occur within the Trans-Pecos and Big Bend Saturday afternoon. Moderate to strong mid-level winds will remain in the region during the afternoon and the surface low will also be deepest during the favorable diurnal heating maximum. Cloud cover should be minimal in this area given the presence of dry air aloft. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely along with RH of 5-20%. Areas of southeast New Mexico into the South Plains could see briefly elevated conditions, but uncertainty in duration is too great for highlights. ...Florida... Continued dry easterly flow will once again promote elevated fire weather along the western Peninsula during the afternoon. Models indicate winds could be slightly stronger than on Friday (10-15 mph). RH will fall to similar levels, however (25-35% anticipated by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains on Saturday, though it will lose some amplitude during the period. A cold front will continue southward into more of the southern High Plains and eventually the Permian Basin. A surface low near the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will deepen during the day before weakening during the evening as the trough lifts northeastward. ...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend... Though cooler/moist air to the east and north will limit the areal extent, elevated fire weather will occur within the Trans-Pecos and Big Bend Saturday afternoon. Moderate to strong mid-level winds will remain in the region during the afternoon and the surface low will also be deepest during the favorable diurnal heating maximum. Cloud cover should be minimal in this area given the presence of dry air aloft. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely along with RH of 5-20%. Areas of southeast New Mexico into the South Plains could see briefly elevated conditions, but uncertainty in duration is too great for highlights. ...Florida... Continued dry easterly flow will once again promote elevated fire weather along the western Peninsula during the afternoon. Models indicate winds could be slightly stronger than on Friday (10-15 mph). RH will fall to similar levels, however (25-35% anticipated by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains on Saturday, though it will lose some amplitude during the period. A cold front will continue southward into more of the southern High Plains and eventually the Permian Basin. A surface low near the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will deepen during the day before weakening during the evening as the trough lifts northeastward. ...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend... Though cooler/moist air to the east and north will limit the areal extent, elevated fire weather will occur within the Trans-Pecos and Big Bend Saturday afternoon. Moderate to strong mid-level winds will remain in the region during the afternoon and the surface low will also be deepest during the favorable diurnal heating maximum. Cloud cover should be minimal in this area given the presence of dry air aloft. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely along with RH of 5-20%. Areas of southeast New Mexico into the South Plains could see briefly elevated conditions, but uncertainty in duration is too great for highlights. ...Florida... Continued dry easterly flow will once again promote elevated fire weather along the western Peninsula during the afternoon. Models indicate winds could be slightly stronger than on Friday (10-15 mph). RH will fall to similar levels, however (25-35% anticipated by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains on Saturday, though it will lose some amplitude during the period. A cold front will continue southward into more of the southern High Plains and eventually the Permian Basin. A surface low near the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will deepen during the day before weakening during the evening as the trough lifts northeastward. ...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend... Though cooler/moist air to the east and north will limit the areal extent, elevated fire weather will occur within the Trans-Pecos and Big Bend Saturday afternoon. Moderate to strong mid-level winds will remain in the region during the afternoon and the surface low will also be deepest during the favorable diurnal heating maximum. Cloud cover should be minimal in this area given the presence of dry air aloft. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely along with RH of 5-20%. Areas of southeast New Mexico into the South Plains could see briefly elevated conditions, but uncertainty in duration is too great for highlights. ...Florida... Continued dry easterly flow will once again promote elevated fire weather along the western Peninsula during the afternoon. Models indicate winds could be slightly stronger than on Friday (10-15 mph). RH will fall to similar levels, however (25-35% anticipated by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains on Saturday, though it will lose some amplitude during the period. A cold front will continue southward into more of the southern High Plains and eventually the Permian Basin. A surface low near the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will deepen during the day before weakening during the evening as the trough lifts northeastward. ...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend... Though cooler/moist air to the east and north will limit the areal extent, elevated fire weather will occur within the Trans-Pecos and Big Bend Saturday afternoon. Moderate to strong mid-level winds will remain in the region during the afternoon and the surface low will also be deepest during the favorable diurnal heating maximum. Cloud cover should be minimal in this area given the presence of dry air aloft. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely along with RH of 5-20%. Areas of southeast New Mexico into the South Plains could see briefly elevated conditions, but uncertainty in duration is too great for highlights. ...Florida... Continued dry easterly flow will once again promote elevated fire weather along the western Peninsula during the afternoon. Models indicate winds could be slightly stronger than on Friday (10-15 mph). RH will fall to similar levels, however (25-35% anticipated by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains on Saturday, though it will lose some amplitude during the period. A cold front will continue southward into more of the southern High Plains and eventually the Permian Basin. A surface low near the Trans-Pecos/Big Bend will deepen during the day before weakening during the evening as the trough lifts northeastward. ...Trans-Pecos/Big Bend... Though cooler/moist air to the east and north will limit the areal extent, elevated fire weather will occur within the Trans-Pecos and Big Bend Saturday afternoon. Moderate to strong mid-level winds will remain in the region during the afternoon and the surface low will also be deepest during the favorable diurnal heating maximum. Cloud cover should be minimal in this area given the presence of dry air aloft. Surface winds of 15-20 mph are likely along with RH of 5-20%. Areas of southeast New Mexico into the South Plains could see briefly elevated conditions, but uncertainty in duration is too great for highlights. ...Florida... Continued dry easterly flow will once again promote elevated fire weather along the western Peninsula during the afternoon. Models indicate winds could be slightly stronger than on Friday (10-15 mph). RH will fall to similar levels, however (25-35% anticipated by the afternoon. Very dry fuels will support fire spread. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially in the Great Basin will move towards the Four Corners region today. A modest surface low in eastern New Mexico into West Texas will develop during the day. A cold front will continue to make southward progress into the southern Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are again expected during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow across the Southwest and southern Plains and a modest surface low along the Texas/New Mexico border will drive 15-20 mph (up to 25 mph in the terrain) surface winds by the afternoon. RH will be slightly higher than Thursday on account of mid/upper-level clouds. Values of around 10% may occur, but will occur on a relatively local basis. 15-20% will be more common. The driest fuels will be in New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. Farther east in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains, transitional/greening fuels will mitigate fire weather concerns even with similarly dry and windy conditions. ...Florida... Easterly winds of around 10 mph appear possible during the afternoon. RH of 25-35% can be expected along the western Peninsula. With dry fuels (current ERC data showing some locations above the 90th percentile), elevated fire weather is likely this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially in the Great Basin will move towards the Four Corners region today. A modest surface low in eastern New Mexico into West Texas will develop during the day. A cold front will continue to make southward progress into the southern Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are again expected during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow across the Southwest and southern Plains and a modest surface low along the Texas/New Mexico border will drive 15-20 mph (up to 25 mph in the terrain) surface winds by the afternoon. RH will be slightly higher than Thursday on account of mid/upper-level clouds. Values of around 10% may occur, but will occur on a relatively local basis. 15-20% will be more common. The driest fuels will be in New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. Farther east in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains, transitional/greening fuels will mitigate fire weather concerns even with similarly dry and windy conditions. ...Florida... Easterly winds of around 10 mph appear possible during the afternoon. RH of 25-35% can be expected along the western Peninsula. With dry fuels (current ERC data showing some locations above the 90th percentile), elevated fire weather is likely this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially in the Great Basin will move towards the Four Corners region today. A modest surface low in eastern New Mexico into West Texas will develop during the day. A cold front will continue to make southward progress into the southern Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are again expected during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow across the Southwest and southern Plains and a modest surface low along the Texas/New Mexico border will drive 15-20 mph (up to 25 mph in the terrain) surface winds by the afternoon. RH will be slightly higher than Thursday on account of mid/upper-level clouds. Values of around 10% may occur, but will occur on a relatively local basis. 15-20% will be more common. The driest fuels will be in New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. Farther east in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains, transitional/greening fuels will mitigate fire weather concerns even with similarly dry and windy conditions. ...Florida... Easterly winds of around 10 mph appear possible during the afternoon. RH of 25-35% can be expected along the western Peninsula. With dry fuels (current ERC data showing some locations above the 90th percentile), elevated fire weather is likely this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially in the Great Basin will move towards the Four Corners region today. A modest surface low in eastern New Mexico into West Texas will develop during the day. A cold front will continue to make southward progress into the southern Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are again expected during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow across the Southwest and southern Plains and a modest surface low along the Texas/New Mexico border will drive 15-20 mph (up to 25 mph in the terrain) surface winds by the afternoon. RH will be slightly higher than Thursday on account of mid/upper-level clouds. Values of around 10% may occur, but will occur on a relatively local basis. 15-20% will be more common. The driest fuels will be in New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. Farther east in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains, transitional/greening fuels will mitigate fire weather concerns even with similarly dry and windy conditions. ...Florida... Easterly winds of around 10 mph appear possible during the afternoon. RH of 25-35% can be expected along the western Peninsula. With dry fuels (current ERC data showing some locations above the 90th percentile), elevated fire weather is likely this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially in the Great Basin will move towards the Four Corners region today. A modest surface low in eastern New Mexico into West Texas will develop during the day. A cold front will continue to make southward progress into the southern Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are again expected during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow across the Southwest and southern Plains and a modest surface low along the Texas/New Mexico border will drive 15-20 mph (up to 25 mph in the terrain) surface winds by the afternoon. RH will be slightly higher than Thursday on account of mid/upper-level clouds. Values of around 10% may occur, but will occur on a relatively local basis. 15-20% will be more common. The driest fuels will be in New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. Farther east in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains, transitional/greening fuels will mitigate fire weather concerns even with similarly dry and windy conditions. ...Florida... Easterly winds of around 10 mph appear possible during the afternoon. RH of 25-35% can be expected along the western Peninsula. With dry fuels (current ERC data showing some locations above the 90th percentile), elevated fire weather is likely this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially in the Great Basin will move towards the Four Corners region today. A modest surface low in eastern New Mexico into West Texas will develop during the day. A cold front will continue to make southward progress into the southern Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are again expected during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow across the Southwest and southern Plains and a modest surface low along the Texas/New Mexico border will drive 15-20 mph (up to 25 mph in the terrain) surface winds by the afternoon. RH will be slightly higher than Thursday on account of mid/upper-level clouds. Values of around 10% may occur, but will occur on a relatively local basis. 15-20% will be more common. The driest fuels will be in New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. Farther east in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains, transitional/greening fuels will mitigate fire weather concerns even with similarly dry and windy conditions. ...Florida... Easterly winds of around 10 mph appear possible during the afternoon. RH of 25-35% can be expected along the western Peninsula. With dry fuels (current ERC data showing some locations above the 90th percentile), elevated fire weather is likely this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially in the Great Basin will move towards the Four Corners region today. A modest surface low in eastern New Mexico into West Texas will develop during the day. A cold front will continue to make southward progress into the southern Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are again expected during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow across the Southwest and southern Plains and a modest surface low along the Texas/New Mexico border will drive 15-20 mph (up to 25 mph in the terrain) surface winds by the afternoon. RH will be slightly higher than Thursday on account of mid/upper-level clouds. Values of around 10% may occur, but will occur on a relatively local basis. 15-20% will be more common. The driest fuels will be in New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. Farther east in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains, transitional/greening fuels will mitigate fire weather concerns even with similarly dry and windy conditions. ...Florida... Easterly winds of around 10 mph appear possible during the afternoon. RH of 25-35% can be expected along the western Peninsula. With dry fuels (current ERC data showing some locations above the 90th percentile), elevated fire weather is likely this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially in the Great Basin will move towards the Four Corners region today. A modest surface low in eastern New Mexico into West Texas will develop during the day. A cold front will continue to make southward progress into the southern Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are again expected during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow across the Southwest and southern Plains and a modest surface low along the Texas/New Mexico border will drive 15-20 mph (up to 25 mph in the terrain) surface winds by the afternoon. RH will be slightly higher than Thursday on account of mid/upper-level clouds. Values of around 10% may occur, but will occur on a relatively local basis. 15-20% will be more common. The driest fuels will be in New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. Farther east in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains, transitional/greening fuels will mitigate fire weather concerns even with similarly dry and windy conditions. ...Florida... Easterly winds of around 10 mph appear possible during the afternoon. RH of 25-35% can be expected along the western Peninsula. With dry fuels (current ERC data showing some locations above the 90th percentile), elevated fire weather is likely this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more