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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast states. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast States... At mid-levels today, a low will move into the southern Plains, as an 80 to 100 knot jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system. A complex of thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of the jet streak this morning across north-central and northeast Texas. This convection will be mostly to the north of a cold front located from north Texas eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. The primary severe threat this morning will be marginally severe hail due to steep mid-level lapse rates, strong effective shear and sufficient instability. The cluster of storms will move eastward from the vicinity of east Texas this afternoon into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching system, and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support an isolated severe threat. The potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually gains access to a moist airmass located across the Gulf Coast region. For this reason, marginally severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado will be possible. The potential for severe gusts will likely be greatest ahead of short multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue after midnight, as new storms develop over the northern Gulf and move northeastward into the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast states. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast States... At mid-levels today, a low will move into the southern Plains, as an 80 to 100 knot jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system. A complex of thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of the jet streak this morning across north-central and northeast Texas. This convection will be mostly to the north of a cold front located from north Texas eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. The primary severe threat this morning will be marginally severe hail due to steep mid-level lapse rates, strong effective shear and sufficient instability. The cluster of storms will move eastward from the vicinity of east Texas this afternoon into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching system, and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support an isolated severe threat. The potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually gains access to a moist airmass located across the Gulf Coast region. For this reason, marginally severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado will be possible. The potential for severe gusts will likely be greatest ahead of short multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue after midnight, as new storms develop over the northern Gulf and move northeastward into the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast states. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast States... At mid-levels today, a low will move into the southern Plains, as an 80 to 100 knot jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system. A complex of thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of the jet streak this morning across north-central and northeast Texas. This convection will be mostly to the north of a cold front located from north Texas eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. The primary severe threat this morning will be marginally severe hail due to steep mid-level lapse rates, strong effective shear and sufficient instability. The cluster of storms will move eastward from the vicinity of east Texas this afternoon into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching system, and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support an isolated severe threat. The potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually gains access to a moist airmass located across the Gulf Coast region. For this reason, marginally severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado will be possible. The potential for severe gusts will likely be greatest ahead of short multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue after midnight, as new storms develop over the northern Gulf and move northeastward into the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast states. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast States... At mid-levels today, a low will move into the southern Plains, as an 80 to 100 knot jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system. A complex of thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of the jet streak this morning across north-central and northeast Texas. This convection will be mostly to the north of a cold front located from north Texas eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. The primary severe threat this morning will be marginally severe hail due to steep mid-level lapse rates, strong effective shear and sufficient instability. The cluster of storms will move eastward from the vicinity of east Texas this afternoon into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching system, and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support an isolated severe threat. The potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually gains access to a moist airmass located across the Gulf Coast region. For this reason, marginally severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado will be possible. The potential for severe gusts will likely be greatest ahead of short multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue after midnight, as new storms develop over the northern Gulf and move northeastward into the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with isolated large hail are expected tonight across parts of north-central and northeast Texas. ...North-central and Northeast Texas... The latest water vapor imagery has a mid-level low located over the Desert Southwest, with relatively dry air present within west-southwesterly flow over parts of the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. As the mid-level low in the Desert Southwest moves eastward toward the southern Rockies, low-level moisture advection and instability will increase across the southern Plains. The exit region of the mid-level jet will move eastward into the southern Plains tonight, contributing to a low-level jet response. 850 mb flow is expected to increase to between 30 and 40 knots over parts of southwest and central Texas. As instability and lift increases, thunderstorm development is expected after midnight across parts of north-central Texas. The latest RAP forecast soundings in the 06Z to 12Z time frame over north-central Texas have MUCAPE peaking around 1200 J/kg, with 700-500 mb lapse rates reaching 7.5 C/km. Effective shear is forecast to increase into the 50 to 65 knot range. This environment should support an isolated large hail threat with elevated rotating storms. The threat for hail could develop eastward into parts of northeast Texas by the end of the period. For this update, the Marginal Risk has been expanded into northeast Texas. ..Broyles.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with isolated large hail are expected tonight across parts of north-central and northeast Texas. ...North-central and Northeast Texas... The latest water vapor imagery has a mid-level low located over the Desert Southwest, with relatively dry air present within west-southwesterly flow over parts of the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. As the mid-level low in the Desert Southwest moves eastward toward the southern Rockies, low-level moisture advection and instability will increase across the southern Plains. The exit region of the mid-level jet will move eastward into the southern Plains tonight, contributing to a low-level jet response. 850 mb flow is expected to increase to between 30 and 40 knots over parts of southwest and central Texas. As instability and lift increases, thunderstorm development is expected after midnight across parts of north-central Texas. The latest RAP forecast soundings in the 06Z to 12Z time frame over north-central Texas have MUCAPE peaking around 1200 J/kg, with 700-500 mb lapse rates reaching 7.5 C/km. Effective shear is forecast to increase into the 50 to 65 knot range. This environment should support an isolated large hail threat with elevated rotating storms. The threat for hail could develop eastward into parts of northeast Texas by the end of the period. For this update, the Marginal Risk has been expanded into northeast Texas. ..Broyles.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with isolated large hail are expected tonight across parts of north-central and northeast Texas. ...North-central and Northeast Texas... The latest water vapor imagery has a mid-level low located over the Desert Southwest, with relatively dry air present within west-southwesterly flow over parts of the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. As the mid-level low in the Desert Southwest moves eastward toward the southern Rockies, low-level moisture advection and instability will increase across the southern Plains. The exit region of the mid-level jet will move eastward into the southern Plains tonight, contributing to a low-level jet response. 850 mb flow is expected to increase to between 30 and 40 knots over parts of southwest and central Texas. As instability and lift increases, thunderstorm development is expected after midnight across parts of north-central Texas. The latest RAP forecast soundings in the 06Z to 12Z time frame over north-central Texas have MUCAPE peaking around 1200 J/kg, with 700-500 mb lapse rates reaching 7.5 C/km. Effective shear is forecast to increase into the 50 to 65 knot range. This environment should support an isolated large hail threat with elevated rotating storms. The threat for hail could develop eastward into parts of northeast Texas by the end of the period. For this update, the Marginal Risk has been expanded into northeast Texas. ..Broyles.. 03/08/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Mar 7 22:33:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 7 22:33:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...D3/Sunday - Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... On the backside of a midlevel low tracking eastward across the lower MS Valley, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will persist across the Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley. While elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, critical conditions are not currently expected. ...D5-D6/Tuesday-Wednesday - Southern High Plains... A low-latitude midlevel trough will move eastward across the Southwest and southern Rockies, resulting in strengthening west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the southern High Plains. This will favor dry/breezy conditions each afternoon, and elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...D8/Friday - Southern High Plains... Medium-range guidance is in very good agreement, depicting a robust midlevel trough and 90+ kt midlevel jet streak overspreading the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a deepening surface cyclone over the central Plains will favor strong westerly surface winds amid low RH across the region. Given the strong model agreement and limited chance of rainfall over already receptive fuels, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...D3/Sunday - Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... On the backside of a midlevel low tracking eastward across the lower MS Valley, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will persist across the Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley. While elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, critical conditions are not currently expected. ...D5-D6/Tuesday-Wednesday - Southern High Plains... A low-latitude midlevel trough will move eastward across the Southwest and southern Rockies, resulting in strengthening west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the southern High Plains. This will favor dry/breezy conditions each afternoon, and elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...D8/Friday - Southern High Plains... Medium-range guidance is in very good agreement, depicting a robust midlevel trough and 90+ kt midlevel jet streak overspreading the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a deepening surface cyclone over the central Plains will favor strong westerly surface winds amid low RH across the region. Given the strong model agreement and limited chance of rainfall over already receptive fuels, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...D3/Sunday - Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... On the backside of a midlevel low tracking eastward across the lower MS Valley, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will persist across the Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley. While elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, critical conditions are not currently expected. ...D5-D6/Tuesday-Wednesday - Southern High Plains... A low-latitude midlevel trough will move eastward across the Southwest and southern Rockies, resulting in strengthening west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the southern High Plains. This will favor dry/breezy conditions each afternoon, and elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...D8/Friday - Southern High Plains... Medium-range guidance is in very good agreement, depicting a robust midlevel trough and 90+ kt midlevel jet streak overspreading the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a deepening surface cyclone over the central Plains will favor strong westerly surface winds amid low RH across the region. Given the strong model agreement and limited chance of rainfall over already receptive fuels, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...D3/Sunday - Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... On the backside of a midlevel low tracking eastward across the lower MS Valley, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will persist across the Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley. While elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, critical conditions are not currently expected. ...D5-D6/Tuesday-Wednesday - Southern High Plains... A low-latitude midlevel trough will move eastward across the Southwest and southern Rockies, resulting in strengthening west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the southern High Plains. This will favor dry/breezy conditions each afternoon, and elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...D8/Friday - Southern High Plains... Medium-range guidance is in very good agreement, depicting a robust midlevel trough and 90+ kt midlevel jet streak overspreading the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a deepening surface cyclone over the central Plains will favor strong westerly surface winds amid low RH across the region. Given the strong model agreement and limited chance of rainfall over already receptive fuels, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...D3/Sunday - Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... On the backside of a midlevel low tracking eastward across the lower MS Valley, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will persist across the Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley. While elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, critical conditions are not currently expected. ...D5-D6/Tuesday-Wednesday - Southern High Plains... A low-latitude midlevel trough will move eastward across the Southwest and southern Rockies, resulting in strengthening west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the southern High Plains. This will favor dry/breezy conditions each afternoon, and elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...D8/Friday - Southern High Plains... Medium-range guidance is in very good agreement, depicting a robust midlevel trough and 90+ kt midlevel jet streak overspreading the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a deepening surface cyclone over the central Plains will favor strong westerly surface winds amid low RH across the region. Given the strong model agreement and limited chance of rainfall over already receptive fuels, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...D3/Sunday - Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... On the backside of a midlevel low tracking eastward across the lower MS Valley, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will persist across the Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley. While elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, critical conditions are not currently expected. ...D5-D6/Tuesday-Wednesday - Southern High Plains... A low-latitude midlevel trough will move eastward across the Southwest and southern Rockies, resulting in strengthening west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the southern High Plains. This will favor dry/breezy conditions each afternoon, and elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...D8/Friday - Southern High Plains... Medium-range guidance is in very good agreement, depicting a robust midlevel trough and 90+ kt midlevel jet streak overspreading the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a deepening surface cyclone over the central Plains will favor strong westerly surface winds amid low RH across the region. Given the strong model agreement and limited chance of rainfall over already receptive fuels, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS/TEXAS BIG COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail are possible across northwest Texas/Texas Big Country late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Additional thunderstorms are possible across the Southwest States this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. The only adjustment to the ongoing Marginal risk area was a slight longitudinal expansion to better encompass the range of possible solutions depicted by recent HRRR/RAP runs as well as experimental 12z MPAS runs. These solutions continue to show the best convective environment and QPF signal along the I-20 corridor to the west of the DFW metro area, but the envelope of solutions suggests that initial convective initiation may include portions of the DFW area/I-35 corridor. Regardless, the overall expectation of a relatively short-duration, localized severe hail threat early Saturday morning remains valid as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 03/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025/ ...Northwest TX/TX Big Country... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over the Lower CO Valley. This upper low is forecast to progress eastward across the Southwest States, with an expansive fetch of southwesterly flow aloft extending from the base of this low into the OH Valley. Recent satellite imagery also shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the central Plains, while the 15Z surface analysis places an associated low over the MCI vicinity. A cold front extends back west-southwestward from this low into the OK Panhandle while a dryline extends more southwestward through central OK into southwest TX. The central Plains shortwave is expected to progress quickly northeastward through the OH Valley, with the attendant surface low taking a similar path while gradually weakening/filling. The cold front will push southward through OK into north TX, gradually slowing its progress throughout the evening as surface pressures fall across the southern High Plains ahead of the approaching Southwest upper low. A modest surface low will likely develop along the southwestern periphery of the cold front (over the southwest TX/western TX Hill Country vicinity) early tomorrow morning. Low/mid-level southern flow will strengthen as this low develops, creating a region of focused warm-air advection over the TX Big Country/northwest TX. Resultant moistening of low levels (around 850 mb) beneath profiles characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates will likely result in around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE from 08/09Z through 12Z. This buoyancy coupled with continued forcing for ascent, from both warm-air advection and the approaching upper low, will support thunderstorm development. Strong southwesterly flow will exist through the cloud-bearing layer, and the resulting shear is expected to be strong enough to support organized storms capable of producing hail. This threat will be fairly localized and only last a few hours, but the anticipated strong/severe storm coverage merits the introduction of 5% hail probabilities. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon across the Southwest, as ascent from an upper low traverse the region interacts with limited buoyancy supported by steep lapse rates and modest low/mid-level moisture. Highest coverage is anticipated over northwest/north-central NM this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms are possible along the central Gulf Coast early tomorrow morning as well. Additionally, a few lightning flashes are possible within any of the deeper convective cores across southern CA this afternoon/evening. Even so, overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS/TEXAS BIG COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail are possible across northwest Texas/Texas Big Country late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Additional thunderstorms are possible across the Southwest States this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. The only adjustment to the ongoing Marginal risk area was a slight longitudinal expansion to better encompass the range of possible solutions depicted by recent HRRR/RAP runs as well as experimental 12z MPAS runs. These solutions continue to show the best convective environment and QPF signal along the I-20 corridor to the west of the DFW metro area, but the envelope of solutions suggests that initial convective initiation may include portions of the DFW area/I-35 corridor. Regardless, the overall expectation of a relatively short-duration, localized severe hail threat early Saturday morning remains valid as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 03/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025/ ...Northwest TX/TX Big Country... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over the Lower CO Valley. This upper low is forecast to progress eastward across the Southwest States, with an expansive fetch of southwesterly flow aloft extending from the base of this low into the OH Valley. Recent satellite imagery also shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the central Plains, while the 15Z surface analysis places an associated low over the MCI vicinity. A cold front extends back west-southwestward from this low into the OK Panhandle while a dryline extends more southwestward through central OK into southwest TX. The central Plains shortwave is expected to progress quickly northeastward through the OH Valley, with the attendant surface low taking a similar path while gradually weakening/filling. The cold front will push southward through OK into north TX, gradually slowing its progress throughout the evening as surface pressures fall across the southern High Plains ahead of the approaching Southwest upper low. A modest surface low will likely develop along the southwestern periphery of the cold front (over the southwest TX/western TX Hill Country vicinity) early tomorrow morning. Low/mid-level southern flow will strengthen as this low develops, creating a region of focused warm-air advection over the TX Big Country/northwest TX. Resultant moistening of low levels (around 850 mb) beneath profiles characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates will likely result in around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE from 08/09Z through 12Z. This buoyancy coupled with continued forcing for ascent, from both warm-air advection and the approaching upper low, will support thunderstorm development. Strong southwesterly flow will exist through the cloud-bearing layer, and the resulting shear is expected to be strong enough to support organized storms capable of producing hail. This threat will be fairly localized and only last a few hours, but the anticipated strong/severe storm coverage merits the introduction of 5% hail probabilities. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon across the Southwest, as ascent from an upper low traverse the region interacts with limited buoyancy supported by steep lapse rates and modest low/mid-level moisture. Highest coverage is anticipated over northwest/north-central NM this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms are possible along the central Gulf Coast early tomorrow morning as well. Additionally, a few lightning flashes are possible within any of the deeper convective cores across southern CA this afternoon/evening. Even so, overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS/TEXAS BIG COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail are possible across northwest Texas/Texas Big Country late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Additional thunderstorms are possible across the Southwest States this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. The only adjustment to the ongoing Marginal risk area was a slight longitudinal expansion to better encompass the range of possible solutions depicted by recent HRRR/RAP runs as well as experimental 12z MPAS runs. These solutions continue to show the best convective environment and QPF signal along the I-20 corridor to the west of the DFW metro area, but the envelope of solutions suggests that initial convective initiation may include portions of the DFW area/I-35 corridor. Regardless, the overall expectation of a relatively short-duration, localized severe hail threat early Saturday morning remains valid as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 03/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025/ ...Northwest TX/TX Big Country... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over the Lower CO Valley. This upper low is forecast to progress eastward across the Southwest States, with an expansive fetch of southwesterly flow aloft extending from the base of this low into the OH Valley. Recent satellite imagery also shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the central Plains, while the 15Z surface analysis places an associated low over the MCI vicinity. A cold front extends back west-southwestward from this low into the OK Panhandle while a dryline extends more southwestward through central OK into southwest TX. The central Plains shortwave is expected to progress quickly northeastward through the OH Valley, with the attendant surface low taking a similar path while gradually weakening/filling. The cold front will push southward through OK into north TX, gradually slowing its progress throughout the evening as surface pressures fall across the southern High Plains ahead of the approaching Southwest upper low. A modest surface low will likely develop along the southwestern periphery of the cold front (over the southwest TX/western TX Hill Country vicinity) early tomorrow morning. Low/mid-level southern flow will strengthen as this low develops, creating a region of focused warm-air advection over the TX Big Country/northwest TX. Resultant moistening of low levels (around 850 mb) beneath profiles characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates will likely result in around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE from 08/09Z through 12Z. This buoyancy coupled with continued forcing for ascent, from both warm-air advection and the approaching upper low, will support thunderstorm development. Strong southwesterly flow will exist through the cloud-bearing layer, and the resulting shear is expected to be strong enough to support organized storms capable of producing hail. This threat will be fairly localized and only last a few hours, but the anticipated strong/severe storm coverage merits the introduction of 5% hail probabilities. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon across the Southwest, as ascent from an upper low traverse the region interacts with limited buoyancy supported by steep lapse rates and modest low/mid-level moisture. Highest coverage is anticipated over northwest/north-central NM this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms are possible along the central Gulf Coast early tomorrow morning as well. Additionally, a few lightning flashes are possible within any of the deeper convective cores across southern CA this afternoon/evening. Even so, overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS/TEXAS BIG COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail are possible across northwest Texas/Texas Big Country late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Additional thunderstorms are possible across the Southwest States this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. The only adjustment to the ongoing Marginal risk area was a slight longitudinal expansion to better encompass the range of possible solutions depicted by recent HRRR/RAP runs as well as experimental 12z MPAS runs. These solutions continue to show the best convective environment and QPF signal along the I-20 corridor to the west of the DFW metro area, but the envelope of solutions suggests that initial convective initiation may include portions of the DFW area/I-35 corridor. Regardless, the overall expectation of a relatively short-duration, localized severe hail threat early Saturday morning remains valid as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 03/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025/ ...Northwest TX/TX Big Country... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over the Lower CO Valley. This upper low is forecast to progress eastward across the Southwest States, with an expansive fetch of southwesterly flow aloft extending from the base of this low into the OH Valley. Recent satellite imagery also shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the central Plains, while the 15Z surface analysis places an associated low over the MCI vicinity. A cold front extends back west-southwestward from this low into the OK Panhandle while a dryline extends more southwestward through central OK into southwest TX. The central Plains shortwave is expected to progress quickly northeastward through the OH Valley, with the attendant surface low taking a similar path while gradually weakening/filling. The cold front will push southward through OK into north TX, gradually slowing its progress throughout the evening as surface pressures fall across the southern High Plains ahead of the approaching Southwest upper low. A modest surface low will likely develop along the southwestern periphery of the cold front (over the southwest TX/western TX Hill Country vicinity) early tomorrow morning. Low/mid-level southern flow will strengthen as this low develops, creating a region of focused warm-air advection over the TX Big Country/northwest TX. Resultant moistening of low levels (around 850 mb) beneath profiles characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates will likely result in around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE from 08/09Z through 12Z. This buoyancy coupled with continued forcing for ascent, from both warm-air advection and the approaching upper low, will support thunderstorm development. Strong southwesterly flow will exist through the cloud-bearing layer, and the resulting shear is expected to be strong enough to support organized storms capable of producing hail. This threat will be fairly localized and only last a few hours, but the anticipated strong/severe storm coverage merits the introduction of 5% hail probabilities. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon across the Southwest, as ascent from an upper low traverse the region interacts with limited buoyancy supported by steep lapse rates and modest low/mid-level moisture. Highest coverage is anticipated over northwest/north-central NM this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms are possible along the central Gulf Coast early tomorrow morning as well. Additionally, a few lightning flashes are possible within any of the deeper convective cores across southern CA this afternoon/evening. Even so, overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10%. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0152 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS/TEXAS BIG COUNTRY... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail are possible across northwest Texas/Texas Big Country late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Additional thunderstorms are possible across the Southwest States this afternoon and evening. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track. The only adjustment to the ongoing Marginal risk area was a slight longitudinal expansion to better encompass the range of possible solutions depicted by recent HRRR/RAP runs as well as experimental 12z MPAS runs. These solutions continue to show the best convective environment and QPF signal along the I-20 corridor to the west of the DFW metro area, but the envelope of solutions suggests that initial convective initiation may include portions of the DFW area/I-35 corridor. Regardless, the overall expectation of a relatively short-duration, localized severe hail threat early Saturday morning remains valid as outlined in the previous discussion below. ..Moore.. 03/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025/ ...Northwest TX/TX Big Country... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over the Lower CO Valley. This upper low is forecast to progress eastward across the Southwest States, with an expansive fetch of southwesterly flow aloft extending from the base of this low into the OH Valley. Recent satellite imagery also shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the central Plains, while the 15Z surface analysis places an associated low over the MCI vicinity. A cold front extends back west-southwestward from this low into the OK Panhandle while a dryline extends more southwestward through central OK into southwest TX. The central Plains shortwave is expected to progress quickly northeastward through the OH Valley, with the attendant surface low taking a similar path while gradually weakening/filling. The cold front will push southward through OK into north TX, gradually slowing its progress throughout the evening as surface pressures fall across the southern High Plains ahead of the approaching Southwest upper low. A modest surface low will likely develop along the southwestern periphery of the cold front (over the southwest TX/western TX Hill Country vicinity) early tomorrow morning. Low/mid-level southern flow will strengthen as this low develops, creating a region of focused warm-air advection over the TX Big Country/northwest TX. Resultant moistening of low levels (around 850 mb) beneath profiles characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates will likely result in around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE from 08/09Z through 12Z. This buoyancy coupled with continued forcing for ascent, from both warm-air advection and the approaching upper low, will support thunderstorm development. Strong southwesterly flow will exist through the cloud-bearing layer, and the resulting shear is expected to be strong enough to support organized storms capable of producing hail. This threat will be fairly localized and only last a few hours, but the anticipated strong/severe storm coverage merits the introduction of 5% hail probabilities. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon across the Southwest, as ascent from an upper low traverse the region interacts with limited buoyancy supported by steep lapse rates and modest low/mid-level moisture. Highest coverage is anticipated over northwest/north-central NM this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms are possible along the central Gulf Coast early tomorrow morning as well. Additionally, a few lightning flashes are possible within any of the deeper convective cores across southern CA this afternoon/evening. Even so, overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10%. Read more