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No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Thu Apr 17 22:34:05 UTC 2025.

The 2025 commercial salmon fishing season in California was closed for an unprecedented third consecutive year, and sportfishing will be restricted to only a few days due to reduced numbers of fish, fishing regulators decided on Tuesday, April 15. The Associated Press, April 15, 2025

MD 0459 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR PARTS OF ERN NE INTO WRN IA
Mesoscale Discussion 0459 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Areas affected...parts of ern NE into wrn IA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 171953Z - 172200Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...The initiation of strong to severe thunderstorms, including supercells posing a risk for large, potentially damaging, hail may increase by 5-7 PM CDT, if not a bit earlier. It is possible that the potential for a tornado or two could increase near/north and east of the Greater Omaha area later this evening. DISCUSSION...Trailing the surface low, which is now migrating north of the Redwood Falls MN vicinity, a surface cold front is maintaining a southward advancement into/across the Sioux Falls/Sioux City areas, Norfolk NE and the Grand Island/Kearney/Hasting NE vicinities. Substantive boundary-layer warming and moistening (including surface dew points near 60F) continues in a narrow corridor ahead of this feature, where mixed-layer CAPE may continue to increase up to around 2000 J/kg within the next few hours, beneath a warm and capping elevated mixed-layer area. Models continue to suggest that mid-level forcing for ascent associated with a weak short wave perturbation may increasingly contribute to subtle mid-level height falls and erosion of the lower/mid-tropospheric inhibition as far south as the Lincoln and Omaha NE vicinities by 22-00Z. As this occurs, potential for the initiation of thunderstorm activity will increase, both along and ahead of the cold front. Although there may be a tendency for convection to become undercut by the front, convection allowing model output suggests that forcing associated with pre-frontal warm advection may maintain at least one or two sustained storms, propagating to the right of the 30-40 kt west-southwesterly mean flow. As long as this occurs, it appears that the environment may become conducive to supercells capable of produce swaths of large hail, at least occasionally in excess of 2 inches in diameter. Low-level flow and shear are initially weak, but strengthening toward early evening might result in an increase in potential for a tornado near/north and east of Greater Omaha. ..Kerr/Smith.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID... LAT...LON 41179772 41769755 42469675 42579490 41059573 40719646 40809718 41179772 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.00-3.50 IN Read more

WW 0141 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0141 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0141 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0141 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

WW 0140 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 140 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/17/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DMX...MPX...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 140 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-025-035-041-059-063-081-091-093-109-141-143-147-149-151- 161-189-193-195-172240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CALHOUN CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON EMMET HANCOCK HUMBOLDT IDA KOSSUTH O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS SAC WINNEBAGO WOODBURY WORTH MNC013-015-019-033-037-039-043-047-049-053-063-079-085-091-099- 103-109-123-131-139-143-147-157-161-163-165-171-172240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH BROWN CARVER COTTONWOOD DAKOTA DODGE FARIBAULT FREEBORN GOODHUE HENNEPIN JACKSON LE SUEUR MCLEOD MARTIN MOWER Read more

WW 0140 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 140 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..WENDT..04/17/25 ATTN...WFO...FSD...DMX...MPX...ARX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 140 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS IAC021-025-035-041-059-063-081-091-093-109-141-143-147-149-151- 161-189-193-195-172240- IA . IOWA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BUENA VISTA CALHOUN CHEROKEE CLAY DICKINSON EMMET HANCOCK HUMBOLDT IDA KOSSUTH O'BRIEN OSCEOLA PALO ALTO PLYMOUTH POCAHONTAS SAC WINNEBAGO WOODBURY WORTH MNC013-015-019-033-037-039-043-047-049-053-063-079-085-091-099- 103-109-123-131-139-143-147-157-161-163-165-171-172240- MN . MINNESOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BLUE EARTH BROWN CARVER COTTONWOOD DAKOTA DODGE FARIBAULT FREEBORN GOODHUE HENNEPIN JACKSON LE SUEUR MCLEOD MARTIN MOWER Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough across the Desert Southwest on Day 3/Saturday will pivot through the Southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, accelerating northeastward into the Great Lakes Region by Day 5/Monday. Fire weather concerns with this feature should remain limited to far southeastern New Mexico and far western Texas ahead of the cold front on Saturday. However, uncertainty exists in timing of the cold front and westward extent of moist return flow from the Gulf. The probability for Critical fire weather conditions was left at 40 percent due to this timing uncertainty. The upper-level trough and associated precipitation across much of the eastern U.S. will mitigate fire weather concerns temporarily Day 5/Monday through Day 7/Wednesday. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals a general troughing pattern returning to the Western U.S. as early as Day 7, indicating a return to a warm and dry southwesterly flow across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains, but uncertainty is high enough to preclude adding Critical probabilities at this time. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across Florida through at least the middle of next week as a Bermuda High evolves to the east, introducing a more daily southeasterly flow into the state. Further drying of fuels are expected with much of southern Florida already above the 90th percentile range in ERC. This could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat for western Florida Peninsula into the middle of next week. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough across the Desert Southwest on Day 3/Saturday will pivot through the Southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, accelerating northeastward into the Great Lakes Region by Day 5/Monday. Fire weather concerns with this feature should remain limited to far southeastern New Mexico and far western Texas ahead of the cold front on Saturday. However, uncertainty exists in timing of the cold front and westward extent of moist return flow from the Gulf. The probability for Critical fire weather conditions was left at 40 percent due to this timing uncertainty. The upper-level trough and associated precipitation across much of the eastern U.S. will mitigate fire weather concerns temporarily Day 5/Monday through Day 7/Wednesday. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals a general troughing pattern returning to the Western U.S. as early as Day 7, indicating a return to a warm and dry southwesterly flow across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains, but uncertainty is high enough to preclude adding Critical probabilities at this time. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across Florida through at least the middle of next week as a Bermuda High evolves to the east, introducing a more daily southeasterly flow into the state. Further drying of fuels are expected with much of southern Florida already above the 90th percentile range in ERC. This could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat for western Florida Peninsula into the middle of next week. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough across the Desert Southwest on Day 3/Saturday will pivot through the Southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, accelerating northeastward into the Great Lakes Region by Day 5/Monday. Fire weather concerns with this feature should remain limited to far southeastern New Mexico and far western Texas ahead of the cold front on Saturday. However, uncertainty exists in timing of the cold front and westward extent of moist return flow from the Gulf. The probability for Critical fire weather conditions was left at 40 percent due to this timing uncertainty. The upper-level trough and associated precipitation across much of the eastern U.S. will mitigate fire weather concerns temporarily Day 5/Monday through Day 7/Wednesday. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals a general troughing pattern returning to the Western U.S. as early as Day 7, indicating a return to a warm and dry southwesterly flow across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains, but uncertainty is high enough to preclude adding Critical probabilities at this time. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across Florida through at least the middle of next week as a Bermuda High evolves to the east, introducing a more daily southeasterly flow into the state. Further drying of fuels are expected with much of southern Florida already above the 90th percentile range in ERC. This could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat for western Florida Peninsula into the middle of next week. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough across the Desert Southwest on Day 3/Saturday will pivot through the Southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, accelerating northeastward into the Great Lakes Region by Day 5/Monday. Fire weather concerns with this feature should remain limited to far southeastern New Mexico and far western Texas ahead of the cold front on Saturday. However, uncertainty exists in timing of the cold front and westward extent of moist return flow from the Gulf. The probability for Critical fire weather conditions was left at 40 percent due to this timing uncertainty. The upper-level trough and associated precipitation across much of the eastern U.S. will mitigate fire weather concerns temporarily Day 5/Monday through Day 7/Wednesday. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals a general troughing pattern returning to the Western U.S. as early as Day 7, indicating a return to a warm and dry southwesterly flow across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains, but uncertainty is high enough to preclude adding Critical probabilities at this time. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across Florida through at least the middle of next week as a Bermuda High evolves to the east, introducing a more daily southeasterly flow into the state. Further drying of fuels are expected with much of southern Florida already above the 90th percentile range in ERC. This could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat for western Florida Peninsula into the middle of next week. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough across the Desert Southwest on Day 3/Saturday will pivot through the Southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, accelerating northeastward into the Great Lakes Region by Day 5/Monday. Fire weather concerns with this feature should remain limited to far southeastern New Mexico and far western Texas ahead of the cold front on Saturday. However, uncertainty exists in timing of the cold front and westward extent of moist return flow from the Gulf. The probability for Critical fire weather conditions was left at 40 percent due to this timing uncertainty. The upper-level trough and associated precipitation across much of the eastern U.S. will mitigate fire weather concerns temporarily Day 5/Monday through Day 7/Wednesday. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals a general troughing pattern returning to the Western U.S. as early as Day 7, indicating a return to a warm and dry southwesterly flow across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains, but uncertainty is high enough to preclude adding Critical probabilities at this time. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across Florida through at least the middle of next week as a Bermuda High evolves to the east, introducing a more daily southeasterly flow into the state. Further drying of fuels are expected with much of southern Florida already above the 90th percentile range in ERC. This could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat for western Florida Peninsula into the middle of next week. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough across the Desert Southwest on Day 3/Saturday will pivot through the Southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, accelerating northeastward into the Great Lakes Region by Day 5/Monday. Fire weather concerns with this feature should remain limited to far southeastern New Mexico and far western Texas ahead of the cold front on Saturday. However, uncertainty exists in timing of the cold front and westward extent of moist return flow from the Gulf. The probability for Critical fire weather conditions was left at 40 percent due to this timing uncertainty. The upper-level trough and associated precipitation across much of the eastern U.S. will mitigate fire weather concerns temporarily Day 5/Monday through Day 7/Wednesday. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals a general troughing pattern returning to the Western U.S. as early as Day 7, indicating a return to a warm and dry southwesterly flow across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains, but uncertainty is high enough to preclude adding Critical probabilities at this time. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across Florida through at least the middle of next week as a Bermuda High evolves to the east, introducing a more daily southeasterly flow into the state. Further drying of fuels are expected with much of southern Florida already above the 90th percentile range in ERC. This could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat for western Florida Peninsula into the middle of next week. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough across the Desert Southwest on Day 3/Saturday will pivot through the Southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, accelerating northeastward into the Great Lakes Region by Day 5/Monday. Fire weather concerns with this feature should remain limited to far southeastern New Mexico and far western Texas ahead of the cold front on Saturday. However, uncertainty exists in timing of the cold front and westward extent of moist return flow from the Gulf. The probability for Critical fire weather conditions was left at 40 percent due to this timing uncertainty. The upper-level trough and associated precipitation across much of the eastern U.S. will mitigate fire weather concerns temporarily Day 5/Monday through Day 7/Wednesday. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals a general troughing pattern returning to the Western U.S. as early as Day 7, indicating a return to a warm and dry southwesterly flow across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains, but uncertainty is high enough to preclude adding Critical probabilities at this time. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across Florida through at least the middle of next week as a Bermuda High evolves to the east, introducing a more daily southeasterly flow into the state. Further drying of fuels are expected with much of southern Florida already above the 90th percentile range in ERC. This could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat for western Florida Peninsula into the middle of next week. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough across the Desert Southwest on Day 3/Saturday will pivot through the Southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, accelerating northeastward into the Great Lakes Region by Day 5/Monday. Fire weather concerns with this feature should remain limited to far southeastern New Mexico and far western Texas ahead of the cold front on Saturday. However, uncertainty exists in timing of the cold front and westward extent of moist return flow from the Gulf. The probability for Critical fire weather conditions was left at 40 percent due to this timing uncertainty. The upper-level trough and associated precipitation across much of the eastern U.S. will mitigate fire weather concerns temporarily Day 5/Monday through Day 7/Wednesday. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals a general troughing pattern returning to the Western U.S. as early as Day 7, indicating a return to a warm and dry southwesterly flow across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains, but uncertainty is high enough to preclude adding Critical probabilities at this time. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across Florida through at least the middle of next week as a Bermuda High evolves to the east, introducing a more daily southeasterly flow into the state. Further drying of fuels are expected with much of southern Florida already above the 90th percentile range in ERC. This could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat for western Florida Peninsula into the middle of next week. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough across the Desert Southwest on Day 3/Saturday will pivot through the Southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, accelerating northeastward into the Great Lakes Region by Day 5/Monday. Fire weather concerns with this feature should remain limited to far southeastern New Mexico and far western Texas ahead of the cold front on Saturday. However, uncertainty exists in timing of the cold front and westward extent of moist return flow from the Gulf. The probability for Critical fire weather conditions was left at 40 percent due to this timing uncertainty. The upper-level trough and associated precipitation across much of the eastern U.S. will mitigate fire weather concerns temporarily Day 5/Monday through Day 7/Wednesday. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals a general troughing pattern returning to the Western U.S. as early as Day 7, indicating a return to a warm and dry southwesterly flow across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains, but uncertainty is high enough to preclude adding Critical probabilities at this time. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across Florida through at least the middle of next week as a Bermuda High evolves to the east, introducing a more daily southeasterly flow into the state. Further drying of fuels are expected with much of southern Florida already above the 90th percentile range in ERC. This could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat for western Florida Peninsula into the middle of next week. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough across the Desert Southwest on Day 3/Saturday will pivot through the Southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, accelerating northeastward into the Great Lakes Region by Day 5/Monday. Fire weather concerns with this feature should remain limited to far southeastern New Mexico and far western Texas ahead of the cold front on Saturday. However, uncertainty exists in timing of the cold front and westward extent of moist return flow from the Gulf. The probability for Critical fire weather conditions was left at 40 percent due to this timing uncertainty. The upper-level trough and associated precipitation across much of the eastern U.S. will mitigate fire weather concerns temporarily Day 5/Monday through Day 7/Wednesday. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals a general troughing pattern returning to the Western U.S. as early as Day 7, indicating a return to a warm and dry southwesterly flow across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains, but uncertainty is high enough to preclude adding Critical probabilities at this time. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across Florida through at least the middle of next week as a Bermuda High evolves to the east, introducing a more daily southeasterly flow into the state. Further drying of fuels are expected with much of southern Florida already above the 90th percentile range in ERC. This could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat for western Florida Peninsula into the middle of next week. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough across the Desert Southwest on Day 3/Saturday will pivot through the Southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, accelerating northeastward into the Great Lakes Region by Day 5/Monday. Fire weather concerns with this feature should remain limited to far southeastern New Mexico and far western Texas ahead of the cold front on Saturday. However, uncertainty exists in timing of the cold front and westward extent of moist return flow from the Gulf. The probability for Critical fire weather conditions was left at 40 percent due to this timing uncertainty. The upper-level trough and associated precipitation across much of the eastern U.S. will mitigate fire weather concerns temporarily Day 5/Monday through Day 7/Wednesday. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals a general troughing pattern returning to the Western U.S. as early as Day 7, indicating a return to a warm and dry southwesterly flow across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains, but uncertainty is high enough to preclude adding Critical probabilities at this time. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across Florida through at least the middle of next week as a Bermuda High evolves to the east, introducing a more daily southeasterly flow into the state. Further drying of fuels are expected with much of southern Florida already above the 90th percentile range in ERC. This could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat for western Florida Peninsula into the middle of next week. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough across the Desert Southwest on Day 3/Saturday will pivot through the Southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, accelerating northeastward into the Great Lakes Region by Day 5/Monday. Fire weather concerns with this feature should remain limited to far southeastern New Mexico and far western Texas ahead of the cold front on Saturday. However, uncertainty exists in timing of the cold front and westward extent of moist return flow from the Gulf. The probability for Critical fire weather conditions was left at 40 percent due to this timing uncertainty. The upper-level trough and associated precipitation across much of the eastern U.S. will mitigate fire weather concerns temporarily Day 5/Monday through Day 7/Wednesday. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals a general troughing pattern returning to the Western U.S. as early as Day 7, indicating a return to a warm and dry southwesterly flow across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains, but uncertainty is high enough to preclude adding Critical probabilities at this time. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across Florida through at least the middle of next week as a Bermuda High evolves to the east, introducing a more daily southeasterly flow into the state. Further drying of fuels are expected with much of southern Florida already above the 90th percentile range in ERC. This could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat for western Florida Peninsula into the middle of next week. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough across the Desert Southwest on Day 3/Saturday will pivot through the Southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, accelerating northeastward into the Great Lakes Region by Day 5/Monday. Fire weather concerns with this feature should remain limited to far southeastern New Mexico and far western Texas ahead of the cold front on Saturday. However, uncertainty exists in timing of the cold front and westward extent of moist return flow from the Gulf. The probability for Critical fire weather conditions was left at 40 percent due to this timing uncertainty. The upper-level trough and associated precipitation across much of the eastern U.S. will mitigate fire weather concerns temporarily Day 5/Monday through Day 7/Wednesday. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals a general troughing pattern returning to the Western U.S. as early as Day 7, indicating a return to a warm and dry southwesterly flow across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains, but uncertainty is high enough to preclude adding Critical probabilities at this time. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across Florida through at least the middle of next week as a Bermuda High evolves to the east, introducing a more daily southeasterly flow into the state. Further drying of fuels are expected with much of southern Florida already above the 90th percentile range in ERC. This could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat for western Florida Peninsula into the middle of next week. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more