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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... A slight eastward and northward expansion of Elevated fire weather conditions was warranted across portions of the Texas Panhandle and western Texas. Latest model guidance consensus delays/stalls the cold front intrusion into the Texas Panhandle until Friday early evening. This will act to prolong at least elevated fire weather conditions across the Cap Rock area, including southwest winds of up to 20 mph and relative humidity in falling into the lower teens by mid-afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions are still expected across much of southeast New Mexico and far west Texas as an upper-level trough deepens across the Intermountain West. ...Florida... Expect increased east winds Friday across the Florida Peninsula as high pressure translates eastward into the Atlantic. Winds of 10-15 mph coupled with relative humidity in the 25-35 percent range amid dry fuels will promote Elevated fire weather conditions for much of central and southwest Florida. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper trough will shift to the east with the stronger mid-level winds within the southern/central Plains on Friday. Another surface low, though weaker than Thursday, will develop along the New Mexico/Texas border. A cold front will push farther south into parts of the southern Plains. Fire weather concerns will remain across parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Though mid-level flow will be weaker than the previous day, moderate flow should remain across the region during the afternoon. Coupled with the modest surface low, surface winds of 15-25 mph will be possible. RH could fall around 10% for some locations, but will more broadly be around 15-20%. Critical fire weather is most likely in parts of southern and eastern New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. There is greater confidence in critically low RH as well as fuels being more receptive here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... A slight eastward and northward expansion of Elevated fire weather conditions was warranted across portions of the Texas Panhandle and western Texas. Latest model guidance consensus delays/stalls the cold front intrusion into the Texas Panhandle until Friday early evening. This will act to prolong at least elevated fire weather conditions across the Cap Rock area, including southwest winds of up to 20 mph and relative humidity in falling into the lower teens by mid-afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions are still expected across much of southeast New Mexico and far west Texas as an upper-level trough deepens across the Intermountain West. ...Florida... Expect increased east winds Friday across the Florida Peninsula as high pressure translates eastward into the Atlantic. Winds of 10-15 mph coupled with relative humidity in the 25-35 percent range amid dry fuels will promote Elevated fire weather conditions for much of central and southwest Florida. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper trough will shift to the east with the stronger mid-level winds within the southern/central Plains on Friday. Another surface low, though weaker than Thursday, will develop along the New Mexico/Texas border. A cold front will push farther south into parts of the southern Plains. Fire weather concerns will remain across parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Though mid-level flow will be weaker than the previous day, moderate flow should remain across the region during the afternoon. Coupled with the modest surface low, surface winds of 15-25 mph will be possible. RH could fall around 10% for some locations, but will more broadly be around 15-20%. Critical fire weather is most likely in parts of southern and eastern New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. There is greater confidence in critically low RH as well as fuels being more receptive here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... A slight eastward and northward expansion of Elevated fire weather conditions was warranted across portions of the Texas Panhandle and western Texas. Latest model guidance consensus delays/stalls the cold front intrusion into the Texas Panhandle until Friday early evening. This will act to prolong at least elevated fire weather conditions across the Cap Rock area, including southwest winds of up to 20 mph and relative humidity in falling into the lower teens by mid-afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions are still expected across much of southeast New Mexico and far west Texas as an upper-level trough deepens across the Intermountain West. ...Florida... Expect increased east winds Friday across the Florida Peninsula as high pressure translates eastward into the Atlantic. Winds of 10-15 mph coupled with relative humidity in the 25-35 percent range amid dry fuels will promote Elevated fire weather conditions for much of central and southwest Florida. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper trough will shift to the east with the stronger mid-level winds within the southern/central Plains on Friday. Another surface low, though weaker than Thursday, will develop along the New Mexico/Texas border. A cold front will push farther south into parts of the southern Plains. Fire weather concerns will remain across parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Though mid-level flow will be weaker than the previous day, moderate flow should remain across the region during the afternoon. Coupled with the modest surface low, surface winds of 15-25 mph will be possible. RH could fall around 10% for some locations, but will more broadly be around 15-20%. Critical fire weather is most likely in parts of southern and eastern New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. There is greater confidence in critically low RH as well as fuels being more receptive here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... A slight eastward and northward expansion of Elevated fire weather conditions was warranted across portions of the Texas Panhandle and western Texas. Latest model guidance consensus delays/stalls the cold front intrusion into the Texas Panhandle until Friday early evening. This will act to prolong at least elevated fire weather conditions across the Cap Rock area, including southwest winds of up to 20 mph and relative humidity in falling into the lower teens by mid-afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions are still expected across much of southeast New Mexico and far west Texas as an upper-level trough deepens across the Intermountain West. ...Florida... Expect increased east winds Friday across the Florida Peninsula as high pressure translates eastward into the Atlantic. Winds of 10-15 mph coupled with relative humidity in the 25-35 percent range amid dry fuels will promote Elevated fire weather conditions for much of central and southwest Florida. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper trough will shift to the east with the stronger mid-level winds within the southern/central Plains on Friday. Another surface low, though weaker than Thursday, will develop along the New Mexico/Texas border. A cold front will push farther south into parts of the southern Plains. Fire weather concerns will remain across parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Though mid-level flow will be weaker than the previous day, moderate flow should remain across the region during the afternoon. Coupled with the modest surface low, surface winds of 15-25 mph will be possible. RH could fall around 10% for some locations, but will more broadly be around 15-20%. Critical fire weather is most likely in parts of southern and eastern New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. There is greater confidence in critically low RH as well as fuels being more receptive here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0249 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... A slight eastward and northward expansion of Elevated fire weather conditions was warranted across portions of the Texas Panhandle and western Texas. Latest model guidance consensus delays/stalls the cold front intrusion into the Texas Panhandle until Friday early evening. This will act to prolong at least elevated fire weather conditions across the Cap Rock area, including southwest winds of up to 20 mph and relative humidity in falling into the lower teens by mid-afternoon. Critical fire weather conditions are still expected across much of southeast New Mexico and far west Texas as an upper-level trough deepens across the Intermountain West. ...Florida... Expect increased east winds Friday across the Florida Peninsula as high pressure translates eastward into the Atlantic. Winds of 10-15 mph coupled with relative humidity in the 25-35 percent range amid dry fuels will promote Elevated fire weather conditions for much of central and southwest Florida. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... The upper trough will shift to the east with the stronger mid-level winds within the southern/central Plains on Friday. Another surface low, though weaker than Thursday, will develop along the New Mexico/Texas border. A cold front will push farther south into parts of the southern Plains. Fire weather concerns will remain across parts of the Southwest and southern High Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Though mid-level flow will be weaker than the previous day, moderate flow should remain across the region during the afternoon. Coupled with the modest surface low, surface winds of 15-25 mph will be possible. RH could fall around 10% for some locations, but will more broadly be around 15-20%. Critical fire weather is most likely in parts of southern and eastern New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. There is greater confidence in critically low RH as well as fuels being more receptive here. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move eastward across Ontario and Quebec, deepening all the while. Meanwhile, a southern-stream low/trough will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. This system will take on a negative tilt into Sunday morning. At the surface, a front will stall from PA westward to the middle MS Valley, and southwestward into northwest TX. Upper 50s F to lower 60s F dewpoints will be common along and south of this boundary, with the most substantial instability developing from west-central TX into OK. Winds around 850 mb will initially be out of the southwest across the entire warm sector, but backing and strengthening will occur over the southern Plains late as the upper trough approaches. At that time, a cold front will further increase lift over TX and OK. ...From parts of OK across MO/IL/IN/OH/PA... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early on Saturday north of the stationary front and aided by theta-e advection just off the surface with 30+ kt southwest 850 mb winds. While the low-level lapse rates will initially be poor, sufficient elevated instability combined with strong deep-layer shear may support marginal hail during the day. Indications are that heating will be most prominent from the central Appalachians into parts of the upper OH Valley and into PA, and a few diurnally driven cells may produce marginal hail over OH and PA. ...TX/OK into the Ozarks... Scattered storms may redevelop from northern TX into OK during the day, as low-level moisture advection is maintained across the warm sector and north of the boundary. Lapse rates will likely be poor due to extensive clouds and persistent showers/storms. Later in the day, strong heating over southwest TX and lift near the cold front should allow for new development over west-central TX during the late afternoon, with increasing storm coverage as the low-level jet increases through the night. A few supercells may develop in this region, producing large hail. The front may tend to undercut the activity, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Farther north, batches of elevated storms will spread out of TX and into OK, with both periodic hail and heavy rain threat (see WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Product). ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move eastward across Ontario and Quebec, deepening all the while. Meanwhile, a southern-stream low/trough will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. This system will take on a negative tilt into Sunday morning. At the surface, a front will stall from PA westward to the middle MS Valley, and southwestward into northwest TX. Upper 50s F to lower 60s F dewpoints will be common along and south of this boundary, with the most substantial instability developing from west-central TX into OK. Winds around 850 mb will initially be out of the southwest across the entire warm sector, but backing and strengthening will occur over the southern Plains late as the upper trough approaches. At that time, a cold front will further increase lift over TX and OK. ...From parts of OK across MO/IL/IN/OH/PA... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early on Saturday north of the stationary front and aided by theta-e advection just off the surface with 30+ kt southwest 850 mb winds. While the low-level lapse rates will initially be poor, sufficient elevated instability combined with strong deep-layer shear may support marginal hail during the day. Indications are that heating will be most prominent from the central Appalachians into parts of the upper OH Valley and into PA, and a few diurnally driven cells may produce marginal hail over OH and PA. ...TX/OK into the Ozarks... Scattered storms may redevelop from northern TX into OK during the day, as low-level moisture advection is maintained across the warm sector and north of the boundary. Lapse rates will likely be poor due to extensive clouds and persistent showers/storms. Later in the day, strong heating over southwest TX and lift near the cold front should allow for new development over west-central TX during the late afternoon, with increasing storm coverage as the low-level jet increases through the night. A few supercells may develop in this region, producing large hail. The front may tend to undercut the activity, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Farther north, batches of elevated storms will spread out of TX and into OK, with both periodic hail and heavy rain threat (see WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Product). ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move eastward across Ontario and Quebec, deepening all the while. Meanwhile, a southern-stream low/trough will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. This system will take on a negative tilt into Sunday morning. At the surface, a front will stall from PA westward to the middle MS Valley, and southwestward into northwest TX. Upper 50s F to lower 60s F dewpoints will be common along and south of this boundary, with the most substantial instability developing from west-central TX into OK. Winds around 850 mb will initially be out of the southwest across the entire warm sector, but backing and strengthening will occur over the southern Plains late as the upper trough approaches. At that time, a cold front will further increase lift over TX and OK. ...From parts of OK across MO/IL/IN/OH/PA... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early on Saturday north of the stationary front and aided by theta-e advection just off the surface with 30+ kt southwest 850 mb winds. While the low-level lapse rates will initially be poor, sufficient elevated instability combined with strong deep-layer shear may support marginal hail during the day. Indications are that heating will be most prominent from the central Appalachians into parts of the upper OH Valley and into PA, and a few diurnally driven cells may produce marginal hail over OH and PA. ...TX/OK into the Ozarks... Scattered storms may redevelop from northern TX into OK during the day, as low-level moisture advection is maintained across the warm sector and north of the boundary. Lapse rates will likely be poor due to extensive clouds and persistent showers/storms. Later in the day, strong heating over southwest TX and lift near the cold front should allow for new development over west-central TX during the late afternoon, with increasing storm coverage as the low-level jet increases through the night. A few supercells may develop in this region, producing large hail. The front may tend to undercut the activity, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Farther north, batches of elevated storms will spread out of TX and into OK, with both periodic hail and heavy rain threat (see WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Product). ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move eastward across Ontario and Quebec, deepening all the while. Meanwhile, a southern-stream low/trough will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. This system will take on a negative tilt into Sunday morning. At the surface, a front will stall from PA westward to the middle MS Valley, and southwestward into northwest TX. Upper 50s F to lower 60s F dewpoints will be common along and south of this boundary, with the most substantial instability developing from west-central TX into OK. Winds around 850 mb will initially be out of the southwest across the entire warm sector, but backing and strengthening will occur over the southern Plains late as the upper trough approaches. At that time, a cold front will further increase lift over TX and OK. ...From parts of OK across MO/IL/IN/OH/PA... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early on Saturday north of the stationary front and aided by theta-e advection just off the surface with 30+ kt southwest 850 mb winds. While the low-level lapse rates will initially be poor, sufficient elevated instability combined with strong deep-layer shear may support marginal hail during the day. Indications are that heating will be most prominent from the central Appalachians into parts of the upper OH Valley and into PA, and a few diurnally driven cells may produce marginal hail over OH and PA. ...TX/OK into the Ozarks... Scattered storms may redevelop from northern TX into OK during the day, as low-level moisture advection is maintained across the warm sector and north of the boundary. Lapse rates will likely be poor due to extensive clouds and persistent showers/storms. Later in the day, strong heating over southwest TX and lift near the cold front should allow for new development over west-central TX during the late afternoon, with increasing storm coverage as the low-level jet increases through the night. A few supercells may develop in this region, producing large hail. The front may tend to undercut the activity, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Farther north, batches of elevated storms will spread out of TX and into OK, with both periodic hail and heavy rain threat (see WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Product). ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move eastward across Ontario and Quebec, deepening all the while. Meanwhile, a southern-stream low/trough will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. This system will take on a negative tilt into Sunday morning. At the surface, a front will stall from PA westward to the middle MS Valley, and southwestward into northwest TX. Upper 50s F to lower 60s F dewpoints will be common along and south of this boundary, with the most substantial instability developing from west-central TX into OK. Winds around 850 mb will initially be out of the southwest across the entire warm sector, but backing and strengthening will occur over the southern Plains late as the upper trough approaches. At that time, a cold front will further increase lift over TX and OK. ...From parts of OK across MO/IL/IN/OH/PA... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early on Saturday north of the stationary front and aided by theta-e advection just off the surface with 30+ kt southwest 850 mb winds. While the low-level lapse rates will initially be poor, sufficient elevated instability combined with strong deep-layer shear may support marginal hail during the day. Indications are that heating will be most prominent from the central Appalachians into parts of the upper OH Valley and into PA, and a few diurnally driven cells may produce marginal hail over OH and PA. ...TX/OK into the Ozarks... Scattered storms may redevelop from northern TX into OK during the day, as low-level moisture advection is maintained across the warm sector and north of the boundary. Lapse rates will likely be poor due to extensive clouds and persistent showers/storms. Later in the day, strong heating over southwest TX and lift near the cold front should allow for new development over west-central TX during the late afternoon, with increasing storm coverage as the low-level jet increases through the night. A few supercells may develop in this region, producing large hail. The front may tend to undercut the activity, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Farther north, batches of elevated storms will spread out of TX and into OK, with both periodic hail and heavy rain threat (see WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Product). ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move eastward across Ontario and Quebec, deepening all the while. Meanwhile, a southern-stream low/trough will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. This system will take on a negative tilt into Sunday morning. At the surface, a front will stall from PA westward to the middle MS Valley, and southwestward into northwest TX. Upper 50s F to lower 60s F dewpoints will be common along and south of this boundary, with the most substantial instability developing from west-central TX into OK. Winds around 850 mb will initially be out of the southwest across the entire warm sector, but backing and strengthening will occur over the southern Plains late as the upper trough approaches. At that time, a cold front will further increase lift over TX and OK. ...From parts of OK across MO/IL/IN/OH/PA... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early on Saturday north of the stationary front and aided by theta-e advection just off the surface with 30+ kt southwest 850 mb winds. While the low-level lapse rates will initially be poor, sufficient elevated instability combined with strong deep-layer shear may support marginal hail during the day. Indications are that heating will be most prominent from the central Appalachians into parts of the upper OH Valley and into PA, and a few diurnally driven cells may produce marginal hail over OH and PA. ...TX/OK into the Ozarks... Scattered storms may redevelop from northern TX into OK during the day, as low-level moisture advection is maintained across the warm sector and north of the boundary. Lapse rates will likely be poor due to extensive clouds and persistent showers/storms. Later in the day, strong heating over southwest TX and lift near the cold front should allow for new development over west-central TX during the late afternoon, with increasing storm coverage as the low-level jet increases through the night. A few supercells may develop in this region, producing large hail. The front may tend to undercut the activity, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Farther north, batches of elevated storms will spread out of TX and into OK, with both periodic hail and heavy rain threat (see WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Product). ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move eastward across Ontario and Quebec, deepening all the while. Meanwhile, a southern-stream low/trough will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. This system will take on a negative tilt into Sunday morning. At the surface, a front will stall from PA westward to the middle MS Valley, and southwestward into northwest TX. Upper 50s F to lower 60s F dewpoints will be common along and south of this boundary, with the most substantial instability developing from west-central TX into OK. Winds around 850 mb will initially be out of the southwest across the entire warm sector, but backing and strengthening will occur over the southern Plains late as the upper trough approaches. At that time, a cold front will further increase lift over TX and OK. ...From parts of OK across MO/IL/IN/OH/PA... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early on Saturday north of the stationary front and aided by theta-e advection just off the surface with 30+ kt southwest 850 mb winds. While the low-level lapse rates will initially be poor, sufficient elevated instability combined with strong deep-layer shear may support marginal hail during the day. Indications are that heating will be most prominent from the central Appalachians into parts of the upper OH Valley and into PA, and a few diurnally driven cells may produce marginal hail over OH and PA. ...TX/OK into the Ozarks... Scattered storms may redevelop from northern TX into OK during the day, as low-level moisture advection is maintained across the warm sector and north of the boundary. Lapse rates will likely be poor due to extensive clouds and persistent showers/storms. Later in the day, strong heating over southwest TX and lift near the cold front should allow for new development over west-central TX during the late afternoon, with increasing storm coverage as the low-level jet increases through the night. A few supercells may develop in this region, producing large hail. The front may tend to undercut the activity, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Farther north, batches of elevated storms will spread out of TX and into OK, with both periodic hail and heavy rain threat (see WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Product). ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move eastward across Ontario and Quebec, deepening all the while. Meanwhile, a southern-stream low/trough will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. This system will take on a negative tilt into Sunday morning. At the surface, a front will stall from PA westward to the middle MS Valley, and southwestward into northwest TX. Upper 50s F to lower 60s F dewpoints will be common along and south of this boundary, with the most substantial instability developing from west-central TX into OK. Winds around 850 mb will initially be out of the southwest across the entire warm sector, but backing and strengthening will occur over the southern Plains late as the upper trough approaches. At that time, a cold front will further increase lift over TX and OK. ...From parts of OK across MO/IL/IN/OH/PA... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early on Saturday north of the stationary front and aided by theta-e advection just off the surface with 30+ kt southwest 850 mb winds. While the low-level lapse rates will initially be poor, sufficient elevated instability combined with strong deep-layer shear may support marginal hail during the day. Indications are that heating will be most prominent from the central Appalachians into parts of the upper OH Valley and into PA, and a few diurnally driven cells may produce marginal hail over OH and PA. ...TX/OK into the Ozarks... Scattered storms may redevelop from northern TX into OK during the day, as low-level moisture advection is maintained across the warm sector and north of the boundary. Lapse rates will likely be poor due to extensive clouds and persistent showers/storms. Later in the day, strong heating over southwest TX and lift near the cold front should allow for new development over west-central TX during the late afternoon, with increasing storm coverage as the low-level jet increases through the night. A few supercells may develop in this region, producing large hail. The front may tend to undercut the activity, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Farther north, batches of elevated storms will spread out of TX and into OK, with both periodic hail and heavy rain threat (see WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Product). ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move eastward across Ontario and Quebec, deepening all the while. Meanwhile, a southern-stream low/trough will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. This system will take on a negative tilt into Sunday morning. At the surface, a front will stall from PA westward to the middle MS Valley, and southwestward into northwest TX. Upper 50s F to lower 60s F dewpoints will be common along and south of this boundary, with the most substantial instability developing from west-central TX into OK. Winds around 850 mb will initially be out of the southwest across the entire warm sector, but backing and strengthening will occur over the southern Plains late as the upper trough approaches. At that time, a cold front will further increase lift over TX and OK. ...From parts of OK across MO/IL/IN/OH/PA... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early on Saturday north of the stationary front and aided by theta-e advection just off the surface with 30+ kt southwest 850 mb winds. While the low-level lapse rates will initially be poor, sufficient elevated instability combined with strong deep-layer shear may support marginal hail during the day. Indications are that heating will be most prominent from the central Appalachians into parts of the upper OH Valley and into PA, and a few diurnally driven cells may produce marginal hail over OH and PA. ...TX/OK into the Ozarks... Scattered storms may redevelop from northern TX into OK during the day, as low-level moisture advection is maintained across the warm sector and north of the boundary. Lapse rates will likely be poor due to extensive clouds and persistent showers/storms. Later in the day, strong heating over southwest TX and lift near the cold front should allow for new development over west-central TX during the late afternoon, with increasing storm coverage as the low-level jet increases through the night. A few supercells may develop in this region, producing large hail. The front may tend to undercut the activity, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Farther north, batches of elevated storms will spread out of TX and into OK, with both periodic hail and heavy rain threat (see WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Product). ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move eastward across Ontario and Quebec, deepening all the while. Meanwhile, a southern-stream low/trough will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. This system will take on a negative tilt into Sunday morning. At the surface, a front will stall from PA westward to the middle MS Valley, and southwestward into northwest TX. Upper 50s F to lower 60s F dewpoints will be common along and south of this boundary, with the most substantial instability developing from west-central TX into OK. Winds around 850 mb will initially be out of the southwest across the entire warm sector, but backing and strengthening will occur over the southern Plains late as the upper trough approaches. At that time, a cold front will further increase lift over TX and OK. ...From parts of OK across MO/IL/IN/OH/PA... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early on Saturday north of the stationary front and aided by theta-e advection just off the surface with 30+ kt southwest 850 mb winds. While the low-level lapse rates will initially be poor, sufficient elevated instability combined with strong deep-layer shear may support marginal hail during the day. Indications are that heating will be most prominent from the central Appalachians into parts of the upper OH Valley and into PA, and a few diurnally driven cells may produce marginal hail over OH and PA. ...TX/OK into the Ozarks... Scattered storms may redevelop from northern TX into OK during the day, as low-level moisture advection is maintained across the warm sector and north of the boundary. Lapse rates will likely be poor due to extensive clouds and persistent showers/storms. Later in the day, strong heating over southwest TX and lift near the cold front should allow for new development over west-central TX during the late afternoon, with increasing storm coverage as the low-level jet increases through the night. A few supercells may develop in this region, producing large hail. The front may tend to undercut the activity, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Farther north, batches of elevated storms will spread out of TX and into OK, with both periodic hail and heavy rain threat (see WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Product). ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move eastward across Ontario and Quebec, deepening all the while. Meanwhile, a southern-stream low/trough will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. This system will take on a negative tilt into Sunday morning. At the surface, a front will stall from PA westward to the middle MS Valley, and southwestward into northwest TX. Upper 50s F to lower 60s F dewpoints will be common along and south of this boundary, with the most substantial instability developing from west-central TX into OK. Winds around 850 mb will initially be out of the southwest across the entire warm sector, but backing and strengthening will occur over the southern Plains late as the upper trough approaches. At that time, a cold front will further increase lift over TX and OK. ...From parts of OK across MO/IL/IN/OH/PA... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early on Saturday north of the stationary front and aided by theta-e advection just off the surface with 30+ kt southwest 850 mb winds. While the low-level lapse rates will initially be poor, sufficient elevated instability combined with strong deep-layer shear may support marginal hail during the day. Indications are that heating will be most prominent from the central Appalachians into parts of the upper OH Valley and into PA, and a few diurnally driven cells may produce marginal hail over OH and PA. ...TX/OK into the Ozarks... Scattered storms may redevelop from northern TX into OK during the day, as low-level moisture advection is maintained across the warm sector and north of the boundary. Lapse rates will likely be poor due to extensive clouds and persistent showers/storms. Later in the day, strong heating over southwest TX and lift near the cold front should allow for new development over west-central TX during the late afternoon, with increasing storm coverage as the low-level jet increases through the night. A few supercells may develop in this region, producing large hail. The front may tend to undercut the activity, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Farther north, batches of elevated storms will spread out of TX and into OK, with both periodic hail and heavy rain threat (see WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Product). ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move eastward across Ontario and Quebec, deepening all the while. Meanwhile, a southern-stream low/trough will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. This system will take on a negative tilt into Sunday morning. At the surface, a front will stall from PA westward to the middle MS Valley, and southwestward into northwest TX. Upper 50s F to lower 60s F dewpoints will be common along and south of this boundary, with the most substantial instability developing from west-central TX into OK. Winds around 850 mb will initially be out of the southwest across the entire warm sector, but backing and strengthening will occur over the southern Plains late as the upper trough approaches. At that time, a cold front will further increase lift over TX and OK. ...From parts of OK across MO/IL/IN/OH/PA... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early on Saturday north of the stationary front and aided by theta-e advection just off the surface with 30+ kt southwest 850 mb winds. While the low-level lapse rates will initially be poor, sufficient elevated instability combined with strong deep-layer shear may support marginal hail during the day. Indications are that heating will be most prominent from the central Appalachians into parts of the upper OH Valley and into PA, and a few diurnally driven cells may produce marginal hail over OH and PA. ...TX/OK into the Ozarks... Scattered storms may redevelop from northern TX into OK during the day, as low-level moisture advection is maintained across the warm sector and north of the boundary. Lapse rates will likely be poor due to extensive clouds and persistent showers/storms. Later in the day, strong heating over southwest TX and lift near the cold front should allow for new development over west-central TX during the late afternoon, with increasing storm coverage as the low-level jet increases through the night. A few supercells may develop in this region, producing large hail. The front may tend to undercut the activity, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Farther north, batches of elevated storms will spread out of TX and into OK, with both periodic hail and heavy rain threat (see WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Product). ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move eastward across Ontario and Quebec, deepening all the while. Meanwhile, a southern-stream low/trough will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. This system will take on a negative tilt into Sunday morning. At the surface, a front will stall from PA westward to the middle MS Valley, and southwestward into northwest TX. Upper 50s F to lower 60s F dewpoints will be common along and south of this boundary, with the most substantial instability developing from west-central TX into OK. Winds around 850 mb will initially be out of the southwest across the entire warm sector, but backing and strengthening will occur over the southern Plains late as the upper trough approaches. At that time, a cold front will further increase lift over TX and OK. ...From parts of OK across MO/IL/IN/OH/PA... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early on Saturday north of the stationary front and aided by theta-e advection just off the surface with 30+ kt southwest 850 mb winds. While the low-level lapse rates will initially be poor, sufficient elevated instability combined with strong deep-layer shear may support marginal hail during the day. Indications are that heating will be most prominent from the central Appalachians into parts of the upper OH Valley and into PA, and a few diurnally driven cells may produce marginal hail over OH and PA. ...TX/OK into the Ozarks... Scattered storms may redevelop from northern TX into OK during the day, as low-level moisture advection is maintained across the warm sector and north of the boundary. Lapse rates will likely be poor due to extensive clouds and persistent showers/storms. Later in the day, strong heating over southwest TX and lift near the cold front should allow for new development over west-central TX during the late afternoon, with increasing storm coverage as the low-level jet increases through the night. A few supercells may develop in this region, producing large hail. The front may tend to undercut the activity, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Farther north, batches of elevated storms will spread out of TX and into OK, with both periodic hail and heavy rain threat (see WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Product). ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move eastward across Ontario and Quebec, deepening all the while. Meanwhile, a southern-stream low/trough will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. This system will take on a negative tilt into Sunday morning. At the surface, a front will stall from PA westward to the middle MS Valley, and southwestward into northwest TX. Upper 50s F to lower 60s F dewpoints will be common along and south of this boundary, with the most substantial instability developing from west-central TX into OK. Winds around 850 mb will initially be out of the southwest across the entire warm sector, but backing and strengthening will occur over the southern Plains late as the upper trough approaches. At that time, a cold front will further increase lift over TX and OK. ...From parts of OK across MO/IL/IN/OH/PA... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early on Saturday north of the stationary front and aided by theta-e advection just off the surface with 30+ kt southwest 850 mb winds. While the low-level lapse rates will initially be poor, sufficient elevated instability combined with strong deep-layer shear may support marginal hail during the day. Indications are that heating will be most prominent from the central Appalachians into parts of the upper OH Valley and into PA, and a few diurnally driven cells may produce marginal hail over OH and PA. ...TX/OK into the Ozarks... Scattered storms may redevelop from northern TX into OK during the day, as low-level moisture advection is maintained across the warm sector and north of the boundary. Lapse rates will likely be poor due to extensive clouds and persistent showers/storms. Later in the day, strong heating over southwest TX and lift near the cold front should allow for new development over west-central TX during the late afternoon, with increasing storm coverage as the low-level jet increases through the night. A few supercells may develop in this region, producing large hail. The front may tend to undercut the activity, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Farther north, batches of elevated storms will spread out of TX and into OK, with both periodic hail and heavy rain threat (see WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Product). ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move eastward across Ontario and Quebec, deepening all the while. Meanwhile, a southern-stream low/trough will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. This system will take on a negative tilt into Sunday morning. At the surface, a front will stall from PA westward to the middle MS Valley, and southwestward into northwest TX. Upper 50s F to lower 60s F dewpoints will be common along and south of this boundary, with the most substantial instability developing from west-central TX into OK. Winds around 850 mb will initially be out of the southwest across the entire warm sector, but backing and strengthening will occur over the southern Plains late as the upper trough approaches. At that time, a cold front will further increase lift over TX and OK. ...From parts of OK across MO/IL/IN/OH/PA... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early on Saturday north of the stationary front and aided by theta-e advection just off the surface with 30+ kt southwest 850 mb winds. While the low-level lapse rates will initially be poor, sufficient elevated instability combined with strong deep-layer shear may support marginal hail during the day. Indications are that heating will be most prominent from the central Appalachians into parts of the upper OH Valley and into PA, and a few diurnally driven cells may produce marginal hail over OH and PA. ...TX/OK into the Ozarks... Scattered storms may redevelop from northern TX into OK during the day, as low-level moisture advection is maintained across the warm sector and north of the boundary. Lapse rates will likely be poor due to extensive clouds and persistent showers/storms. Later in the day, strong heating over southwest TX and lift near the cold front should allow for new development over west-central TX during the late afternoon, with increasing storm coverage as the low-level jet increases through the night. A few supercells may develop in this region, producing large hail. The front may tend to undercut the activity, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Farther north, batches of elevated storms will spread out of TX and into OK, with both periodic hail and heavy rain threat (see WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Product). ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more