Aggregator

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to exhibit considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving pattern across North America late this coming weekend through the middle of next week. Concerning an initial perturbation likely to be slowly progressing across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, latest model guidance now appears to maintain a less sheared/more substantive (but positively tilted) wave across the northeastern Gulf/South Atlantic Seaboard late this weekend into early next week. However, it still appears that associated frontal wave development will remain subdued, at least until it shifts offshore of the Atlantic coast, which may tend to minimize the risk for severe storms across the Southeast. Thereafter, through the middle to latter portion of next week, it appears that another notable short wave trough will emerge from the southern mid-latitude Pacific and provide support for cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by Wednesday. This may quickly be followed by a much more vigorous and amplified wave, and more prominent cyclogenesis next Thursday into Friday. However, in the wake of the lower latitude weekend trough, low-level moisture return off the Gulf may be initially limited for the trailing perturbation, and the timing of the rapidly following wave might not be optimal with regard to subsequent inland moisture return. At least some risk for organized severe convection may materialize to the east of the Rockies next Wednesday through Thursday night. However, the extent and location remain uncertain at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to exhibit considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving pattern across North America late this coming weekend through the middle of next week. Concerning an initial perturbation likely to be slowly progressing across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, latest model guidance now appears to maintain a less sheared/more substantive (but positively tilted) wave across the northeastern Gulf/South Atlantic Seaboard late this weekend into early next week. However, it still appears that associated frontal wave development will remain subdued, at least until it shifts offshore of the Atlantic coast, which may tend to minimize the risk for severe storms across the Southeast. Thereafter, through the middle to latter portion of next week, it appears that another notable short wave trough will emerge from the southern mid-latitude Pacific and provide support for cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by Wednesday. This may quickly be followed by a much more vigorous and amplified wave, and more prominent cyclogenesis next Thursday into Friday. However, in the wake of the lower latitude weekend trough, low-level moisture return off the Gulf may be initially limited for the trailing perturbation, and the timing of the rapidly following wave might not be optimal with regard to subsequent inland moisture return. At least some risk for organized severe convection may materialize to the east of the Rockies next Wednesday through Thursday night. However, the extent and location remain uncertain at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to exhibit considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving pattern across North America late this coming weekend through the middle of next week. Concerning an initial perturbation likely to be slowly progressing across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, latest model guidance now appears to maintain a less sheared/more substantive (but positively tilted) wave across the northeastern Gulf/South Atlantic Seaboard late this weekend into early next week. However, it still appears that associated frontal wave development will remain subdued, at least until it shifts offshore of the Atlantic coast, which may tend to minimize the risk for severe storms across the Southeast. Thereafter, through the middle to latter portion of next week, it appears that another notable short wave trough will emerge from the southern mid-latitude Pacific and provide support for cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by Wednesday. This may quickly be followed by a much more vigorous and amplified wave, and more prominent cyclogenesis next Thursday into Friday. However, in the wake of the lower latitude weekend trough, low-level moisture return off the Gulf may be initially limited for the trailing perturbation, and the timing of the rapidly following wave might not be optimal with regard to subsequent inland moisture return. At least some risk for organized severe convection may materialize to the east of the Rockies next Wednesday through Thursday night. However, the extent and location remain uncertain at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to exhibit considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving pattern across North America late this coming weekend through the middle of next week. Concerning an initial perturbation likely to be slowly progressing across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, latest model guidance now appears to maintain a less sheared/more substantive (but positively tilted) wave across the northeastern Gulf/South Atlantic Seaboard late this weekend into early next week. However, it still appears that associated frontal wave development will remain subdued, at least until it shifts offshore of the Atlantic coast, which may tend to minimize the risk for severe storms across the Southeast. Thereafter, through the middle to latter portion of next week, it appears that another notable short wave trough will emerge from the southern mid-latitude Pacific and provide support for cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by Wednesday. This may quickly be followed by a much more vigorous and amplified wave, and more prominent cyclogenesis next Thursday into Friday. However, in the wake of the lower latitude weekend trough, low-level moisture return off the Gulf may be initially limited for the trailing perturbation, and the timing of the rapidly following wave might not be optimal with regard to subsequent inland moisture return. At least some risk for organized severe convection may materialize to the east of the Rockies next Wednesday through Thursday night. However, the extent and location remain uncertain at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to exhibit considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving pattern across North America late this coming weekend through the middle of next week. Concerning an initial perturbation likely to be slowly progressing across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, latest model guidance now appears to maintain a less sheared/more substantive (but positively tilted) wave across the northeastern Gulf/South Atlantic Seaboard late this weekend into early next week. However, it still appears that associated frontal wave development will remain subdued, at least until it shifts offshore of the Atlantic coast, which may tend to minimize the risk for severe storms across the Southeast. Thereafter, through the middle to latter portion of next week, it appears that another notable short wave trough will emerge from the southern mid-latitude Pacific and provide support for cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by Wednesday. This may quickly be followed by a much more vigorous and amplified wave, and more prominent cyclogenesis next Thursday into Friday. However, in the wake of the lower latitude weekend trough, low-level moisture return off the Gulf may be initially limited for the trailing perturbation, and the timing of the rapidly following wave might not be optimal with regard to subsequent inland moisture return. At least some risk for organized severe convection may materialize to the east of the Rockies next Wednesday through Thursday night. However, the extent and location remain uncertain at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to exhibit considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving pattern across North America late this coming weekend through the middle of next week. Concerning an initial perturbation likely to be slowly progressing across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, latest model guidance now appears to maintain a less sheared/more substantive (but positively tilted) wave across the northeastern Gulf/South Atlantic Seaboard late this weekend into early next week. However, it still appears that associated frontal wave development will remain subdued, at least until it shifts offshore of the Atlantic coast, which may tend to minimize the risk for severe storms across the Southeast. Thereafter, through the middle to latter portion of next week, it appears that another notable short wave trough will emerge from the southern mid-latitude Pacific and provide support for cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by Wednesday. This may quickly be followed by a much more vigorous and amplified wave, and more prominent cyclogenesis next Thursday into Friday. However, in the wake of the lower latitude weekend trough, low-level moisture return off the Gulf may be initially limited for the trailing perturbation, and the timing of the rapidly following wave might not be optimal with regard to subsequent inland moisture return. At least some risk for organized severe convection may materialize to the east of the Rockies next Wednesday through Thursday night. However, the extent and location remain uncertain at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to exhibit considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving pattern across North America late this coming weekend through the middle of next week. Concerning an initial perturbation likely to be slowly progressing across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, latest model guidance now appears to maintain a less sheared/more substantive (but positively tilted) wave across the northeastern Gulf/South Atlantic Seaboard late this weekend into early next week. However, it still appears that associated frontal wave development will remain subdued, at least until it shifts offshore of the Atlantic coast, which may tend to minimize the risk for severe storms across the Southeast. Thereafter, through the middle to latter portion of next week, it appears that another notable short wave trough will emerge from the southern mid-latitude Pacific and provide support for cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by Wednesday. This may quickly be followed by a much more vigorous and amplified wave, and more prominent cyclogenesis next Thursday into Friday. However, in the wake of the lower latitude weekend trough, low-level moisture return off the Gulf may be initially limited for the trailing perturbation, and the timing of the rapidly following wave might not be optimal with regard to subsequent inland moisture return. At least some risk for organized severe convection may materialize to the east of the Rockies next Wednesday through Thursday night. However, the extent and location remain uncertain at this time. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AMD ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of north central through eastern Texas into the central Gulf coast vicinity Saturday through Saturday night, accompanied by a risk for severe hail. ...Discussion... Between amplified cyclonic flow, characterized by seasonably low mid-level heights across much of eastern Canadian and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes/Northeast into northwestern Atlantic, and broad ridging across the Gulf Basin into Southeast, broadly confluent mid-level flow likely will be maintained to the east of the Rockies. It appears that a significant mid-level trough and embedded low, approaching this regime across the southern Rockies by the beginning of the period, will slowly be forced into and through it, as a significant upstream short wave trough digs across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific Saturday into early Sunday. The latest model output continues to indicate that the lead perturbation will gradually become increasingly sheared as it progresses across the southern Great Plains, particularly by late Saturday through Saturday night. Based on the various guidance, it is possible that associated forcing for ascent could support further deepening of an initial developing frontal wave across north central Texas. However, this probably will be short-lived, with cyclogenesis along the front remaining modest to weak while quickly developing southeastward then eastward across the Gulf Coast states. ...South Central U.S... The models do indicate that an influx of moisture off a modifying boundary layer across the northwestern/north central Gulf will contribute to a conditionally and convectively unstable environment across the southeastern Great Plains into north central Gulf coast vicinity. Beneath layers with steep lapse rates in the lower/mid-troposphere, the low-level moisture may contribute to CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. It remains unclear how far inland of upper Texas through Louisiana coastal areas this will become boundary-layer based, but as large-scale ascent aids erosion of mid-level inhibition, the environment may become conducive to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development with potential to produce severe hail. Deep-layer shear will be strong for both boundary-layer based storm development and storms rooted above a shallow cool/stable near-surface layer, lingering ahead of the primary southeastward advancing cold front, from northeastern Texas through northern/eastern Louisiana, southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the adjacent western Florida Panhandle. With storms rooted in the boundary-layer, a tornado might not be out of the question across parts of southeastern Texas into southern Louisiana, but low-level hodographs are forecast to remain on the smaller/weaker side. ..Kerr.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AMD ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of north central through eastern Texas into the central Gulf coast vicinity Saturday through Saturday night, accompanied by a risk for severe hail. ...Discussion... Between amplified cyclonic flow, characterized by seasonably low mid-level heights across much of eastern Canadian and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes/Northeast into northwestern Atlantic, and broad ridging across the Gulf Basin into Southeast, broadly confluent mid-level flow likely will be maintained to the east of the Rockies. It appears that a significant mid-level trough and embedded low, approaching this regime across the southern Rockies by the beginning of the period, will slowly be forced into and through it, as a significant upstream short wave trough digs across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific Saturday into early Sunday. The latest model output continues to indicate that the lead perturbation will gradually become increasingly sheared as it progresses across the southern Great Plains, particularly by late Saturday through Saturday night. Based on the various guidance, it is possible that associated forcing for ascent could support further deepening of an initial developing frontal wave across north central Texas. However, this probably will be short-lived, with cyclogenesis along the front remaining modest to weak while quickly developing southeastward then eastward across the Gulf Coast states. ...South Central U.S... The models do indicate that an influx of moisture off a modifying boundary layer across the northwestern/north central Gulf will contribute to a conditionally and convectively unstable environment across the southeastern Great Plains into north central Gulf coast vicinity. Beneath layers with steep lapse rates in the lower/mid-troposphere, the low-level moisture may contribute to CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. It remains unclear how far inland of upper Texas through Louisiana coastal areas this will become boundary-layer based, but as large-scale ascent aids erosion of mid-level inhibition, the environment may become conducive to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development with potential to produce severe hail. Deep-layer shear will be strong for both boundary-layer based storm development and storms rooted above a shallow cool/stable near-surface layer, lingering ahead of the primary southeastward advancing cold front, from northeastern Texas through northern/eastern Louisiana, southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the adjacent western Florida Panhandle. With storms rooted in the boundary-layer, a tornado might not be out of the question across parts of southeastern Texas into southern Louisiana, but low-level hodographs are forecast to remain on the smaller/weaker side. ..Kerr.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AMD ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of north central through eastern Texas into the central Gulf coast vicinity Saturday through Saturday night, accompanied by a risk for severe hail. ...Discussion... Between amplified cyclonic flow, characterized by seasonably low mid-level heights across much of eastern Canadian and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes/Northeast into northwestern Atlantic, and broad ridging across the Gulf Basin into Southeast, broadly confluent mid-level flow likely will be maintained to the east of the Rockies. It appears that a significant mid-level trough and embedded low, approaching this regime across the southern Rockies by the beginning of the period, will slowly be forced into and through it, as a significant upstream short wave trough digs across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific Saturday into early Sunday. The latest model output continues to indicate that the lead perturbation will gradually become increasingly sheared as it progresses across the southern Great Plains, particularly by late Saturday through Saturday night. Based on the various guidance, it is possible that associated forcing for ascent could support further deepening of an initial developing frontal wave across north central Texas. However, this probably will be short-lived, with cyclogenesis along the front remaining modest to weak while quickly developing southeastward then eastward across the Gulf Coast states. ...South Central U.S... The models do indicate that an influx of moisture off a modifying boundary layer across the northwestern/north central Gulf will contribute to a conditionally and convectively unstable environment across the southeastern Great Plains into north central Gulf coast vicinity. Beneath layers with steep lapse rates in the lower/mid-troposphere, the low-level moisture may contribute to CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. It remains unclear how far inland of upper Texas through Louisiana coastal areas this will become boundary-layer based, but as large-scale ascent aids erosion of mid-level inhibition, the environment may become conducive to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development with potential to produce severe hail. Deep-layer shear will be strong for both boundary-layer based storm development and storms rooted above a shallow cool/stable near-surface layer, lingering ahead of the primary southeastward advancing cold front, from northeastern Texas through northern/eastern Louisiana, southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the adjacent western Florida Panhandle. With storms rooted in the boundary-layer, a tornado might not be out of the question across parts of southeastern Texas into southern Louisiana, but low-level hodographs are forecast to remain on the smaller/weaker side. ..Kerr.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AMD ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of north central through eastern Texas into the central Gulf coast vicinity Saturday through Saturday night, accompanied by a risk for severe hail. ...Discussion... Between amplified cyclonic flow, characterized by seasonably low mid-level heights across much of eastern Canadian and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes/Northeast into northwestern Atlantic, and broad ridging across the Gulf Basin into Southeast, broadly confluent mid-level flow likely will be maintained to the east of the Rockies. It appears that a significant mid-level trough and embedded low, approaching this regime across the southern Rockies by the beginning of the period, will slowly be forced into and through it, as a significant upstream short wave trough digs across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific Saturday into early Sunday. The latest model output continues to indicate that the lead perturbation will gradually become increasingly sheared as it progresses across the southern Great Plains, particularly by late Saturday through Saturday night. Based on the various guidance, it is possible that associated forcing for ascent could support further deepening of an initial developing frontal wave across north central Texas. However, this probably will be short-lived, with cyclogenesis along the front remaining modest to weak while quickly developing southeastward then eastward across the Gulf Coast states. ...South Central U.S... The models do indicate that an influx of moisture off a modifying boundary layer across the northwestern/north central Gulf will contribute to a conditionally and convectively unstable environment across the southeastern Great Plains into north central Gulf coast vicinity. Beneath layers with steep lapse rates in the lower/mid-troposphere, the low-level moisture may contribute to CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. It remains unclear how far inland of upper Texas through Louisiana coastal areas this will become boundary-layer based, but as large-scale ascent aids erosion of mid-level inhibition, the environment may become conducive to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development with potential to produce severe hail. Deep-layer shear will be strong for both boundary-layer based storm development and storms rooted above a shallow cool/stable near-surface layer, lingering ahead of the primary southeastward advancing cold front, from northeastern Texas through northern/eastern Louisiana, southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the adjacent western Florida Panhandle. With storms rooted in the boundary-layer, a tornado might not be out of the question across parts of southeastern Texas into southern Louisiana, but low-level hodographs are forecast to remain on the smaller/weaker side. ..Kerr.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AMD ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of north central through eastern Texas into the central Gulf coast vicinity Saturday through Saturday night, accompanied by a risk for severe hail. ...Discussion... Between amplified cyclonic flow, characterized by seasonably low mid-level heights across much of eastern Canadian and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes/Northeast into northwestern Atlantic, and broad ridging across the Gulf Basin into Southeast, broadly confluent mid-level flow likely will be maintained to the east of the Rockies. It appears that a significant mid-level trough and embedded low, approaching this regime across the southern Rockies by the beginning of the period, will slowly be forced into and through it, as a significant upstream short wave trough digs across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific Saturday into early Sunday. The latest model output continues to indicate that the lead perturbation will gradually become increasingly sheared as it progresses across the southern Great Plains, particularly by late Saturday through Saturday night. Based on the various guidance, it is possible that associated forcing for ascent could support further deepening of an initial developing frontal wave across north central Texas. However, this probably will be short-lived, with cyclogenesis along the front remaining modest to weak while quickly developing southeastward then eastward across the Gulf Coast states. ...South Central U.S... The models do indicate that an influx of moisture off a modifying boundary layer across the northwestern/north central Gulf will contribute to a conditionally and convectively unstable environment across the southeastern Great Plains into north central Gulf coast vicinity. Beneath layers with steep lapse rates in the lower/mid-troposphere, the low-level moisture may contribute to CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. It remains unclear how far inland of upper Texas through Louisiana coastal areas this will become boundary-layer based, but as large-scale ascent aids erosion of mid-level inhibition, the environment may become conducive to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development with potential to produce severe hail. Deep-layer shear will be strong for both boundary-layer based storm development and storms rooted above a shallow cool/stable near-surface layer, lingering ahead of the primary southeastward advancing cold front, from northeastern Texas through northern/eastern Louisiana, southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the adjacent western Florida Panhandle. With storms rooted in the boundary-layer, a tornado might not be out of the question across parts of southeastern Texas into southern Louisiana, but low-level hodographs are forecast to remain on the smaller/weaker side. ..Kerr.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AMD ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of north central through eastern Texas into the central Gulf coast vicinity Saturday through Saturday night, accompanied by a risk for severe hail. ...Discussion... Between amplified cyclonic flow, characterized by seasonably low mid-level heights across much of eastern Canadian and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes/Northeast into northwestern Atlantic, and broad ridging across the Gulf Basin into Southeast, broadly confluent mid-level flow likely will be maintained to the east of the Rockies. It appears that a significant mid-level trough and embedded low, approaching this regime across the southern Rockies by the beginning of the period, will slowly be forced into and through it, as a significant upstream short wave trough digs across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific Saturday into early Sunday. The latest model output continues to indicate that the lead perturbation will gradually become increasingly sheared as it progresses across the southern Great Plains, particularly by late Saturday through Saturday night. Based on the various guidance, it is possible that associated forcing for ascent could support further deepening of an initial developing frontal wave across north central Texas. However, this probably will be short-lived, with cyclogenesis along the front remaining modest to weak while quickly developing southeastward then eastward across the Gulf Coast states. ...South Central U.S... The models do indicate that an influx of moisture off a modifying boundary layer across the northwestern/north central Gulf will contribute to a conditionally and convectively unstable environment across the southeastern Great Plains into north central Gulf coast vicinity. Beneath layers with steep lapse rates in the lower/mid-troposphere, the low-level moisture may contribute to CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. It remains unclear how far inland of upper Texas through Louisiana coastal areas this will become boundary-layer based, but as large-scale ascent aids erosion of mid-level inhibition, the environment may become conducive to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development with potential to produce severe hail. Deep-layer shear will be strong for both boundary-layer based storm development and storms rooted above a shallow cool/stable near-surface layer, lingering ahead of the primary southeastward advancing cold front, from northeastern Texas through northern/eastern Louisiana, southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the adjacent western Florida Panhandle. With storms rooted in the boundary-layer, a tornado might not be out of the question across parts of southeastern Texas into southern Louisiana, but low-level hodographs are forecast to remain on the smaller/weaker side. ..Kerr.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0226 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS...WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA AMD ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong thunderstorms may impact parts of north central through eastern Texas into the central Gulf coast vicinity Saturday through Saturday night, accompanied by a risk for severe hail. ...Discussion... Between amplified cyclonic flow, characterized by seasonably low mid-level heights across much of eastern Canadian and adjacent portions of the Great Lakes/Northeast into northwestern Atlantic, and broad ridging across the Gulf Basin into Southeast, broadly confluent mid-level flow likely will be maintained to the east of the Rockies. It appears that a significant mid-level trough and embedded low, approaching this regime across the southern Rockies by the beginning of the period, will slowly be forced into and through it, as a significant upstream short wave trough digs across the southern mid-latitude eastern Pacific Saturday into early Sunday. The latest model output continues to indicate that the lead perturbation will gradually become increasingly sheared as it progresses across the southern Great Plains, particularly by late Saturday through Saturday night. Based on the various guidance, it is possible that associated forcing for ascent could support further deepening of an initial developing frontal wave across north central Texas. However, this probably will be short-lived, with cyclogenesis along the front remaining modest to weak while quickly developing southeastward then eastward across the Gulf Coast states. ...South Central U.S... The models do indicate that an influx of moisture off a modifying boundary layer across the northwestern/north central Gulf will contribute to a conditionally and convectively unstable environment across the southeastern Great Plains into north central Gulf coast vicinity. Beneath layers with steep lapse rates in the lower/mid-troposphere, the low-level moisture may contribute to CAPE on the order of 500-1000 J/kg. It remains unclear how far inland of upper Texas through Louisiana coastal areas this will become boundary-layer based, but as large-scale ascent aids erosion of mid-level inhibition, the environment may become conducive to widely scattered strong thunderstorm development with potential to produce severe hail. Deep-layer shear will be strong for both boundary-layer based storm development and storms rooted above a shallow cool/stable near-surface layer, lingering ahead of the primary southeastward advancing cold front, from northeastern Texas through northern/eastern Louisiana, southern portions of Mississippi/Alabama and the adjacent western Florida Panhandle. With storms rooted in the boundary-layer, a tornado might not be out of the question across parts of southeastern Texas into southern Louisiana, but low-level hodographs are forecast to remain on the smaller/weaker side. ..Kerr.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ..Squitieri.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more