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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... The Elevated area was trimmed in the TX South Plains and TX Panhandle, where recent rainfall and marginal wind/RH should limit fire-weather concerns today. Farther northeast, an Elevated area was added for portions of western OK into western north TX. Here, the latest surface observations already show 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid upper teens to lower 20s RH. Given a lack of appreciable rainfall here over the last several days, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough progressing across the Four Corners region, along with a developing surface low over west-central Texas, will translate eastward throughout today. Strong surface winds in the vicinity of the surface low and immediately following a cold front will bring Critical fire-weather conditions across much of West Texas into Southeastern New Mexico. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be present from southern and eastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle, down into the far western Edwards Plateau. ...West Texas into Far Southeastern New Mexico... Across western Texas into far southeastern New Mexico, surface winds are expected to reach as high as 30 MPH with relative humidity values dropping into the single digits. The strongest surface winds prior to the cold-frontal passage will be confined to the U.S./Mexico border, particularly over the Texas Lowland Deserts, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend, with a secondary round of post-frontal high winds reaching further eastward and northward into southern New Mexico. The post-frontal environment will be characterized by higher relative humidity values at or above 20%, but current ERC fuels guidance shows fuels at or above the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles. Given the high winds and receptive fuels, higher relative humidity values are not considered a limiting factor for Critical conditions at this time. ...Eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle... Further north into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected in both pre- and post-frontal regimes, with winds around 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values around 15%. Portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle into eastern Oklahoma will also experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, but recent wetting rainfall and current ERC fuels guidance are limiting factors for the inclusion of highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS/TEXAS BIG COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail are possible across northwest Texas/Texas Big Country late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Additional thunderstorms are possible across the Southwest States this afternoon and evening. ...Northwest TX/TX Big Country... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over the Lower CO Valley. This upper low is forecast to progress eastward across the Southwest States, with an expansive fetch of southwesterly flow aloft extending from the base of this low into the OH Valley. Recent satellite imagery also shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the central Plains, while the 15Z surface analysis places an associated low over the MCI vicinity. A cold front extends back west-southwestward from this low into the OK Panhandle while a dryline extends more southwestward through central OK into southwest TX. The central Plains shortwave is expected to progress quickly northeastward through the OH Valley, with the attendant surface low taking a similar path while gradually weakening/filling. The cold front will push southward through OK into north TX, gradually slowing its progress throughout the evening as surface pressures fall across the southern High Plains ahead of the approaching Southwest upper low. A modest surface low will likely develop along the southwestern periphery of the cold front (over the southwest TX/western TX Hill Country vicinity) early tomorrow morning. Low/mid-level southern flow will strengthen as this low develops, creating a region of focused warm-air advection over the TX Big Country/northwest TX. Resultant moistening of low levels (around 850 mb) beneath profiles characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates will likely result in around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE from 08/09Z through 12Z. This buoyancy coupled with continued forcing for ascent, from both warm-air advection and the approaching upper low, will support thunderstorm development. Strong southwesterly flow will exist through the cloud-bearing layer, and the resulting shear is expected to be strong enough to support organized storms capable of producing hail. This threat will be fairly localized and only last a few hours, but the anticipated strong/severe storm coverage merits the introduction of 5% hail probabilities. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon across the Southwest, as ascent from an upper low traverse the region interacts with limited buoyancy supported by steep lapse rates and modest low/mid-level moisture. Highest coverage is anticipated over northwest/north-central NM this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms are possible along the central Gulf Coast early tomorrow morning as well. Additionally, a few lightning flashes are possible within any of the deeper convective cores across southern CA this afternoon/evening. Even so, overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10%. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS/TEXAS BIG COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail are possible across northwest Texas/Texas Big Country late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Additional thunderstorms are possible across the Southwest States this afternoon and evening. ...Northwest TX/TX Big Country... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over the Lower CO Valley. This upper low is forecast to progress eastward across the Southwest States, with an expansive fetch of southwesterly flow aloft extending from the base of this low into the OH Valley. Recent satellite imagery also shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the central Plains, while the 15Z surface analysis places an associated low over the MCI vicinity. A cold front extends back west-southwestward from this low into the OK Panhandle while a dryline extends more southwestward through central OK into southwest TX. The central Plains shortwave is expected to progress quickly northeastward through the OH Valley, with the attendant surface low taking a similar path while gradually weakening/filling. The cold front will push southward through OK into north TX, gradually slowing its progress throughout the evening as surface pressures fall across the southern High Plains ahead of the approaching Southwest upper low. A modest surface low will likely develop along the southwestern periphery of the cold front (over the southwest TX/western TX Hill Country vicinity) early tomorrow morning. Low/mid-level southern flow will strengthen as this low develops, creating a region of focused warm-air advection over the TX Big Country/northwest TX. Resultant moistening of low levels (around 850 mb) beneath profiles characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates will likely result in around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE from 08/09Z through 12Z. This buoyancy coupled with continued forcing for ascent, from both warm-air advection and the approaching upper low, will support thunderstorm development. Strong southwesterly flow will exist through the cloud-bearing layer, and the resulting shear is expected to be strong enough to support organized storms capable of producing hail. This threat will be fairly localized and only last a few hours, but the anticipated strong/severe storm coverage merits the introduction of 5% hail probabilities. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon across the Southwest, as ascent from an upper low traverse the region interacts with limited buoyancy supported by steep lapse rates and modest low/mid-level moisture. Highest coverage is anticipated over northwest/north-central NM this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms are possible along the central Gulf Coast early tomorrow morning as well. Additionally, a few lightning flashes are possible within any of the deeper convective cores across southern CA this afternoon/evening. Even so, overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10%. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS/TEXAS BIG COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail are possible across northwest Texas/Texas Big Country late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Additional thunderstorms are possible across the Southwest States this afternoon and evening. ...Northwest TX/TX Big Country... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over the Lower CO Valley. This upper low is forecast to progress eastward across the Southwest States, with an expansive fetch of southwesterly flow aloft extending from the base of this low into the OH Valley. Recent satellite imagery also shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the central Plains, while the 15Z surface analysis places an associated low over the MCI vicinity. A cold front extends back west-southwestward from this low into the OK Panhandle while a dryline extends more southwestward through central OK into southwest TX. The central Plains shortwave is expected to progress quickly northeastward through the OH Valley, with the attendant surface low taking a similar path while gradually weakening/filling. The cold front will push southward through OK into north TX, gradually slowing its progress throughout the evening as surface pressures fall across the southern High Plains ahead of the approaching Southwest upper low. A modest surface low will likely develop along the southwestern periphery of the cold front (over the southwest TX/western TX Hill Country vicinity) early tomorrow morning. Low/mid-level southern flow will strengthen as this low develops, creating a region of focused warm-air advection over the TX Big Country/northwest TX. Resultant moistening of low levels (around 850 mb) beneath profiles characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates will likely result in around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE from 08/09Z through 12Z. This buoyancy coupled with continued forcing for ascent, from both warm-air advection and the approaching upper low, will support thunderstorm development. Strong southwesterly flow will exist through the cloud-bearing layer, and the resulting shear is expected to be strong enough to support organized storms capable of producing hail. This threat will be fairly localized and only last a few hours, but the anticipated strong/severe storm coverage merits the introduction of 5% hail probabilities. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon across the Southwest, as ascent from an upper low traverse the region interacts with limited buoyancy supported by steep lapse rates and modest low/mid-level moisture. Highest coverage is anticipated over northwest/north-central NM this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms are possible along the central Gulf Coast early tomorrow morning as well. Additionally, a few lightning flashes are possible within any of the deeper convective cores across southern CA this afternoon/evening. Even so, overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10%. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS/TEXAS BIG COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail are possible across northwest Texas/Texas Big Country late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Additional thunderstorms are possible across the Southwest States this afternoon and evening. ...Northwest TX/TX Big Country... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over the Lower CO Valley. This upper low is forecast to progress eastward across the Southwest States, with an expansive fetch of southwesterly flow aloft extending from the base of this low into the OH Valley. Recent satellite imagery also shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the central Plains, while the 15Z surface analysis places an associated low over the MCI vicinity. A cold front extends back west-southwestward from this low into the OK Panhandle while a dryline extends more southwestward through central OK into southwest TX. The central Plains shortwave is expected to progress quickly northeastward through the OH Valley, with the attendant surface low taking a similar path while gradually weakening/filling. The cold front will push southward through OK into north TX, gradually slowing its progress throughout the evening as surface pressures fall across the southern High Plains ahead of the approaching Southwest upper low. A modest surface low will likely develop along the southwestern periphery of the cold front (over the southwest TX/western TX Hill Country vicinity) early tomorrow morning. Low/mid-level southern flow will strengthen as this low develops, creating a region of focused warm-air advection over the TX Big Country/northwest TX. Resultant moistening of low levels (around 850 mb) beneath profiles characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates will likely result in around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE from 08/09Z through 12Z. This buoyancy coupled with continued forcing for ascent, from both warm-air advection and the approaching upper low, will support thunderstorm development. Strong southwesterly flow will exist through the cloud-bearing layer, and the resulting shear is expected to be strong enough to support organized storms capable of producing hail. This threat will be fairly localized and only last a few hours, but the anticipated strong/severe storm coverage merits the introduction of 5% hail probabilities. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon across the Southwest, as ascent from an upper low traverse the region interacts with limited buoyancy supported by steep lapse rates and modest low/mid-level moisture. Highest coverage is anticipated over northwest/north-central NM this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms are possible along the central Gulf Coast early tomorrow morning as well. Additionally, a few lightning flashes are possible within any of the deeper convective cores across southern CA this afternoon/evening. Even so, overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10%. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS/TEXAS BIG COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail are possible across northwest Texas/Texas Big Country late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Additional thunderstorms are possible across the Southwest States this afternoon and evening. ...Northwest TX/TX Big Country... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over the Lower CO Valley. This upper low is forecast to progress eastward across the Southwest States, with an expansive fetch of southwesterly flow aloft extending from the base of this low into the OH Valley. Recent satellite imagery also shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the central Plains, while the 15Z surface analysis places an associated low over the MCI vicinity. A cold front extends back west-southwestward from this low into the OK Panhandle while a dryline extends more southwestward through central OK into southwest TX. The central Plains shortwave is expected to progress quickly northeastward through the OH Valley, with the attendant surface low taking a similar path while gradually weakening/filling. The cold front will push southward through OK into north TX, gradually slowing its progress throughout the evening as surface pressures fall across the southern High Plains ahead of the approaching Southwest upper low. A modest surface low will likely develop along the southwestern periphery of the cold front (over the southwest TX/western TX Hill Country vicinity) early tomorrow morning. Low/mid-level southern flow will strengthen as this low develops, creating a region of focused warm-air advection over the TX Big Country/northwest TX. Resultant moistening of low levels (around 850 mb) beneath profiles characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates will likely result in around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE from 08/09Z through 12Z. This buoyancy coupled with continued forcing for ascent, from both warm-air advection and the approaching upper low, will support thunderstorm development. Strong southwesterly flow will exist through the cloud-bearing layer, and the resulting shear is expected to be strong enough to support organized storms capable of producing hail. This threat will be fairly localized and only last a few hours, but the anticipated strong/severe storm coverage merits the introduction of 5% hail probabilities. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon across the Southwest, as ascent from an upper low traverse the region interacts with limited buoyancy supported by steep lapse rates and modest low/mid-level moisture. Highest coverage is anticipated over northwest/north-central NM this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms are possible along the central Gulf Coast early tomorrow morning as well. Additionally, a few lightning flashes are possible within any of the deeper convective cores across southern CA this afternoon/evening. Even so, overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10%. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS/TEXAS BIG COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail are possible across northwest Texas/Texas Big Country late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Additional thunderstorms are possible across the Southwest States this afternoon and evening. ...Northwest TX/TX Big Country... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over the Lower CO Valley. This upper low is forecast to progress eastward across the Southwest States, with an expansive fetch of southwesterly flow aloft extending from the base of this low into the OH Valley. Recent satellite imagery also shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the central Plains, while the 15Z surface analysis places an associated low over the MCI vicinity. A cold front extends back west-southwestward from this low into the OK Panhandle while a dryline extends more southwestward through central OK into southwest TX. The central Plains shortwave is expected to progress quickly northeastward through the OH Valley, with the attendant surface low taking a similar path while gradually weakening/filling. The cold front will push southward through OK into north TX, gradually slowing its progress throughout the evening as surface pressures fall across the southern High Plains ahead of the approaching Southwest upper low. A modest surface low will likely develop along the southwestern periphery of the cold front (over the southwest TX/western TX Hill Country vicinity) early tomorrow morning. Low/mid-level southern flow will strengthen as this low develops, creating a region of focused warm-air advection over the TX Big Country/northwest TX. Resultant moistening of low levels (around 850 mb) beneath profiles characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates will likely result in around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE from 08/09Z through 12Z. This buoyancy coupled with continued forcing for ascent, from both warm-air advection and the approaching upper low, will support thunderstorm development. Strong southwesterly flow will exist through the cloud-bearing layer, and the resulting shear is expected to be strong enough to support organized storms capable of producing hail. This threat will be fairly localized and only last a few hours, but the anticipated strong/severe storm coverage merits the introduction of 5% hail probabilities. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon across the Southwest, as ascent from an upper low traverse the region interacts with limited buoyancy supported by steep lapse rates and modest low/mid-level moisture. Highest coverage is anticipated over northwest/north-central NM this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms are possible along the central Gulf Coast early tomorrow morning as well. Additionally, a few lightning flashes are possible within any of the deeper convective cores across southern CA this afternoon/evening. Even so, overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10%. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071630Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHWEST TEXAS/TEXAS BIG COUNTRY LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of producing isolated hail are possible across northwest Texas/Texas Big Country late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Additional thunderstorms are possible across the Southwest States this afternoon and evening. ...Northwest TX/TX Big Country... Recent satellite imagery shows a well-defined upper low over the Lower CO Valley. This upper low is forecast to progress eastward across the Southwest States, with an expansive fetch of southwesterly flow aloft extending from the base of this low into the OH Valley. Recent satellite imagery also shows a low-amplitude shortwave trough over the central Plains, while the 15Z surface analysis places an associated low over the MCI vicinity. A cold front extends back west-southwestward from this low into the OK Panhandle while a dryline extends more southwestward through central OK into southwest TX. The central Plains shortwave is expected to progress quickly northeastward through the OH Valley, with the attendant surface low taking a similar path while gradually weakening/filling. The cold front will push southward through OK into north TX, gradually slowing its progress throughout the evening as surface pressures fall across the southern High Plains ahead of the approaching Southwest upper low. A modest surface low will likely develop along the southwestern periphery of the cold front (over the southwest TX/western TX Hill Country vicinity) early tomorrow morning. Low/mid-level southern flow will strengthen as this low develops, creating a region of focused warm-air advection over the TX Big Country/northwest TX. Resultant moistening of low levels (around 850 mb) beneath profiles characterized by cold mid-level temperatures and steep mid-level lapse rates will likely result in around 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE from 08/09Z through 12Z. This buoyancy coupled with continued forcing for ascent, from both warm-air advection and the approaching upper low, will support thunderstorm development. Strong southwesterly flow will exist through the cloud-bearing layer, and the resulting shear is expected to be strong enough to support organized storms capable of producing hail. This threat will be fairly localized and only last a few hours, but the anticipated strong/severe storm coverage merits the introduction of 5% hail probabilities. ...Elsewhere... Isolated thunderstorms are anticipated this afternoon across the Southwest, as ascent from an upper low traverse the region interacts with limited buoyancy supported by steep lapse rates and modest low/mid-level moisture. Highest coverage is anticipated over northwest/north-central NM this afternoon and evening. A few thunderstorms are possible along the central Gulf Coast early tomorrow morning as well. Additionally, a few lightning flashes are possible within any of the deeper convective cores across southern CA this afternoon/evening. Even so, overall coverage is currently expected to be less than 10%. ..Mosier/Bentley.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and southern Plains today into tonight. The potential for severe weather is expected to remain low. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low and associated trough over the lower CO Valley/Baja vicinity. Models show this mid-level low moving east into NM by late tonight. In the low levels, a low initially over KS will move east along a frontal zone and weaken as it moves into the lower OH Valley. A trailing cold front will push southward into central TX by daybreak Saturday. A weak area of low pressure will move from NM into the Edwards Plateau tonight. Southerly low-level flow/warm air advection around 850 mb will act to moisten profiles from central/north TX into southern OK during the 08/09-12 UTC period. Forecast soundings over western north TX show cold 500-mb temperatures (around -20 deg C) and upwards of 500-1000 MUCAPE. Isolated to widely scattered showers and a few elevated thunderstorms are possible. The majority of members from the latest convection-allowing model guidance (e.g., 00 UTC HREF, MPAS) imply limited storm intensity. The strong effective shear/cold mid-level temperatures could support hail with the stronger elevated cells, but the severe threat is currently expected to be low. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and southern Plains today into tonight. The potential for severe weather is expected to remain low. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low and associated trough over the lower CO Valley/Baja vicinity. Models show this mid-level low moving east into NM by late tonight. In the low levels, a low initially over KS will move east along a frontal zone and weaken as it moves into the lower OH Valley. A trailing cold front will push southward into central TX by daybreak Saturday. A weak area of low pressure will move from NM into the Edwards Plateau tonight. Southerly low-level flow/warm air advection around 850 mb will act to moisten profiles from central/north TX into southern OK during the 08/09-12 UTC period. Forecast soundings over western north TX show cold 500-mb temperatures (around -20 deg C) and upwards of 500-1000 MUCAPE. Isolated to widely scattered showers and a few elevated thunderstorms are possible. The majority of members from the latest convection-allowing model guidance (e.g., 00 UTC HREF, MPAS) imply limited storm intensity. The strong effective shear/cold mid-level temperatures could support hail with the stronger elevated cells, but the severe threat is currently expected to be low. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and southern Plains today into tonight. The potential for severe weather is expected to remain low. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low and associated trough over the lower CO Valley/Baja vicinity. Models show this mid-level low moving east into NM by late tonight. In the low levels, a low initially over KS will move east along a frontal zone and weaken as it moves into the lower OH Valley. A trailing cold front will push southward into central TX by daybreak Saturday. A weak area of low pressure will move from NM into the Edwards Plateau tonight. Southerly low-level flow/warm air advection around 850 mb will act to moisten profiles from central/north TX into southern OK during the 08/09-12 UTC period. Forecast soundings over western north TX show cold 500-mb temperatures (around -20 deg C) and upwards of 500-1000 MUCAPE. Isolated to widely scattered showers and a few elevated thunderstorms are possible. The majority of members from the latest convection-allowing model guidance (e.g., 00 UTC HREF, MPAS) imply limited storm intensity. The strong effective shear/cold mid-level temperatures could support hail with the stronger elevated cells, but the severe threat is currently expected to be low. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and southern Plains today into tonight. The potential for severe weather is expected to remain low. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low and associated trough over the lower CO Valley/Baja vicinity. Models show this mid-level low moving east into NM by late tonight. In the low levels, a low initially over KS will move east along a frontal zone and weaken as it moves into the lower OH Valley. A trailing cold front will push southward into central TX by daybreak Saturday. A weak area of low pressure will move from NM into the Edwards Plateau tonight. Southerly low-level flow/warm air advection around 850 mb will act to moisten profiles from central/north TX into southern OK during the 08/09-12 UTC period. Forecast soundings over western north TX show cold 500-mb temperatures (around -20 deg C) and upwards of 500-1000 MUCAPE. Isolated to widely scattered showers and a few elevated thunderstorms are possible. The majority of members from the latest convection-allowing model guidance (e.g., 00 UTC HREF, MPAS) imply limited storm intensity. The strong effective shear/cold mid-level temperatures could support hail with the stronger elevated cells, but the severe threat is currently expected to be low. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and southern Plains today into tonight. The potential for severe weather is expected to remain low. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low and associated trough over the lower CO Valley/Baja vicinity. Models show this mid-level low moving east into NM by late tonight. In the low levels, a low initially over KS will move east along a frontal zone and weaken as it moves into the lower OH Valley. A trailing cold front will push southward into central TX by daybreak Saturday. A weak area of low pressure will move from NM into the Edwards Plateau tonight. Southerly low-level flow/warm air advection around 850 mb will act to moisten profiles from central/north TX into southern OK during the 08/09-12 UTC period. Forecast soundings over western north TX show cold 500-mb temperatures (around -20 deg C) and upwards of 500-1000 MUCAPE. Isolated to widely scattered showers and a few elevated thunderstorms are possible. The majority of members from the latest convection-allowing model guidance (e.g., 00 UTC HREF, MPAS) imply limited storm intensity. The strong effective shear/cold mid-level temperatures could support hail with the stronger elevated cells, but the severe threat is currently expected to be low. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0638 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071300Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorm development will be possible in parts of the Desert Southwest and southern Plains today into tonight. The potential for severe weather is expected to remain low. ...Synopsis... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level low and associated trough over the lower CO Valley/Baja vicinity. Models show this mid-level low moving east into NM by late tonight. In the low levels, a low initially over KS will move east along a frontal zone and weaken as it moves into the lower OH Valley. A trailing cold front will push southward into central TX by daybreak Saturday. A weak area of low pressure will move from NM into the Edwards Plateau tonight. Southerly low-level flow/warm air advection around 850 mb will act to moisten profiles from central/north TX into southern OK during the 08/09-12 UTC period. Forecast soundings over western north TX show cold 500-mb temperatures (around -20 deg C) and upwards of 500-1000 MUCAPE. Isolated to widely scattered showers and a few elevated thunderstorms are possible. The majority of members from the latest convection-allowing model guidance (e.g., 00 UTC HREF, MPAS) imply limited storm intensity. The strong effective shear/cold mid-level temperatures could support hail with the stronger elevated cells, but the severe threat is currently expected to be low. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/07/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8 period. An upper shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore the Atlantic coast on Day 4/Mon. In its wake, low-amplitude upper ridging is forecast from the southern Plains into the Southeast through Day 5/Tue. Severe thunderstorm potential will be low during this time as surface high pressure near the Gulf coast maintain a dry continental airmass. By Day 6/Wed, an upper trough over the southern Rockies and northern Mexico will shift east across the southern Plains to the Sabine Valley vicinity. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will develop ahead of the trough across TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is currently forecast to remain modest, but southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the south-central states. Higher-quality moisture is expected to remain offshore or very near the TX/LA coast, with low 60s F dewpoints possible across parts of east TX and LA ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. Thunderstorm potential will accompany this system, but moisture return will likely remain sub-optimal for a greater severe risk. By the end of the period, around Day 8/Fri, medium range guidance develops a larger-scale, deepening trough ejecting into the Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity. While some severe potential may increase around the Friday time frame, large spread among guidance with regards to timing and placement of the upper trough and key surface features lends to low predictability. Trends will be monitored over the coming days and outlook areas may become necessary if confidence increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8 period. An upper shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore the Atlantic coast on Day 4/Mon. In its wake, low-amplitude upper ridging is forecast from the southern Plains into the Southeast through Day 5/Tue. Severe thunderstorm potential will be low during this time as surface high pressure near the Gulf coast maintain a dry continental airmass. By Day 6/Wed, an upper trough over the southern Rockies and northern Mexico will shift east across the southern Plains to the Sabine Valley vicinity. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will develop ahead of the trough across TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is currently forecast to remain modest, but southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the south-central states. Higher-quality moisture is expected to remain offshore or very near the TX/LA coast, with low 60s F dewpoints possible across parts of east TX and LA ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. Thunderstorm potential will accompany this system, but moisture return will likely remain sub-optimal for a greater severe risk. By the end of the period, around Day 8/Fri, medium range guidance develops a larger-scale, deepening trough ejecting into the Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity. While some severe potential may increase around the Friday time frame, large spread among guidance with regards to timing and placement of the upper trough and key surface features lends to low predictability. Trends will be monitored over the coming days and outlook areas may become necessary if confidence increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8 period. An upper shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore the Atlantic coast on Day 4/Mon. In its wake, low-amplitude upper ridging is forecast from the southern Plains into the Southeast through Day 5/Tue. Severe thunderstorm potential will be low during this time as surface high pressure near the Gulf coast maintain a dry continental airmass. By Day 6/Wed, an upper trough over the southern Rockies and northern Mexico will shift east across the southern Plains to the Sabine Valley vicinity. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will develop ahead of the trough across TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is currently forecast to remain modest, but southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the south-central states. Higher-quality moisture is expected to remain offshore or very near the TX/LA coast, with low 60s F dewpoints possible across parts of east TX and LA ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. Thunderstorm potential will accompany this system, but moisture return will likely remain sub-optimal for a greater severe risk. By the end of the period, around Day 8/Fri, medium range guidance develops a larger-scale, deepening trough ejecting into the Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity. While some severe potential may increase around the Friday time frame, large spread among guidance with regards to timing and placement of the upper trough and key surface features lends to low predictability. Trends will be monitored over the coming days and outlook areas may become necessary if confidence increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8 period. An upper shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore the Atlantic coast on Day 4/Mon. In its wake, low-amplitude upper ridging is forecast from the southern Plains into the Southeast through Day 5/Tue. Severe thunderstorm potential will be low during this time as surface high pressure near the Gulf coast maintain a dry continental airmass. By Day 6/Wed, an upper trough over the southern Rockies and northern Mexico will shift east across the southern Plains to the Sabine Valley vicinity. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will develop ahead of the trough across TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is currently forecast to remain modest, but southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the south-central states. Higher-quality moisture is expected to remain offshore or very near the TX/LA coast, with low 60s F dewpoints possible across parts of east TX and LA ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. Thunderstorm potential will accompany this system, but moisture return will likely remain sub-optimal for a greater severe risk. By the end of the period, around Day 8/Fri, medium range guidance develops a larger-scale, deepening trough ejecting into the Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity. While some severe potential may increase around the Friday time frame, large spread among guidance with regards to timing and placement of the upper trough and key surface features lends to low predictability. Trends will be monitored over the coming days and outlook areas may become necessary if confidence increases. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0309 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... A progressive upper pattern is forecast during the Day 4-8 period. An upper shortwave trough over the Southeast will move offshore the Atlantic coast on Day 4/Mon. In its wake, low-amplitude upper ridging is forecast from the southern Plains into the Southeast through Day 5/Tue. Severe thunderstorm potential will be low during this time as surface high pressure near the Gulf coast maintain a dry continental airmass. By Day 6/Wed, an upper trough over the southern Rockies and northern Mexico will shift east across the southern Plains to the Sabine Valley vicinity. Enhanced southwesterly deep-layer flow will develop ahead of the trough across TX into the Lower MS Valley. Surface cyclogenesis is currently forecast to remain modest, but southerly low-level flow will transport Gulf moisture northward across the south-central states. Higher-quality moisture is expected to remain offshore or very near the TX/LA coast, with low 60s F dewpoints possible across parts of east TX and LA ahead of an eastward advancing cold front. Thunderstorm potential will accompany this system, but moisture return will likely remain sub-optimal for a greater severe risk. By the end of the period, around Day 8/Fri, medium range guidance develops a larger-scale, deepening trough ejecting into the Plains and Upper Midwest vicinity. While some severe potential may increase around the Friday time frame, large spread among guidance with regards to timing and placement of the upper trough and key surface features lends to low predictability. Trends will be monitored over the coming days and outlook areas may become necessary if confidence increases. Read more

SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN GEORGIA INTO NORTHERN FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday across southern Georgia into northern Florida. ...Synopsis... A positively tilted upper trough will shift east across the Southeast on Sunday. A weak surface low over southern AL Sunday morning will shift east near the FL/GA state line before moving offshore during the nighttime hours. A warm front will be draped across southern GA, with mid 60s F dewpoints to the south of the front. Modest midlevel lapse rates will foster MUCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg. Meanwhile, warm advection will sustain ongoing convection to the north of the warm front Sunday morning/afternoon, with additional rounds of convection possible during the late afternoon into the evening as a cold front moves across southern GA/northern FL. Surface-based instability is expected to remain weak, with convection likely remaining somewhat elevated given poor diurnal heating resulting in weak low-level lapse rates. Nevertheless, favorable vertical shear will be present with supercell wind profiles evident in forecast soundings. If a storm can become surface-based near the warm front, isolated strong gusts or a tornado will be possible. ..Leitman.. 03/07/2025 Read more