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SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the parts of the Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards with this activity. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt large-scale upper trough will pivot south and east across portions of the north-central to western U.S. on Friday. A swath of 60-80 kt 500 mb flow will stretch from the southern Rockies to the Great Lakes ahead of the upper trough. At the surface, low pressure will develop northeast from the KS/MO/IA vicinity Friday morning, to southern Ontario/Quebec by early Saturday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast across portions of the Mid-MS Valley/Great Lakes and southern Plains. A weak secondary surface low likely will develop across west TX, where a dryline will extend southward from the eastern Panhandle to the Big Bend region. Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary-layer moisture northward ahead of these surface features and beneath fast mid/upper southwesterly flow. This will support scattered severe storms late Friday afternoon into the overnight hours from portions of the southern Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Lower-MO/Mid-MS Valley to Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms north of a warm front will likely be ongoing during the morning into the afternoon across WI/northern MI. This activity may pose a risk for marginally severe hail. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough embedded within the northern branch of the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough will shift east across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest during the evening/overnight. This will facilitate the eastward progression of the surface front through the period, creating a focus for thunderstorm development. However, strong capping will limit development along the front, likely until closer to 00z, when stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the surface boundary and cooling aloft ensues. Thunderstorms will likely remain elevated atop the strong EML in the 850-700 mb layer, and will likely become undercut by the surface cold front given boundary-parallel flow through the cloud-bearing layer. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient MUCAPE will support organized convection capable of producing large hail. With time, cells may become training clusters, posing some isolated risk for damaging gusts. ...Southern Plains Vicinity... As a surface low develops across west TX, a triple point will emerge near the eastern TX Panhandle/South Plains vicinity. A stout EML will preclude convective development for much of the day. Near the triple point and northeast along the advancing cold front, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form in the 22-00z time frame. Supercell wind profiles with large MUCAPE, very steep lapse rates, and elongated hodographs suggests initial supercells will pose a risk for large to very large hail through early evening. Thereafter, boundary-parallel flow will result in clustering/training as convection also becomes undercut by the front. Damaging gusts also may occur with initial supercells given a well-mixed boundary layer/steep low-level lapse rates beneath the EML. Additionally, some strong gust potential could occur into the Ozarks vicinity as clustering ensues, but hail is expected to be the main concern. ..Leitman.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the parts of the Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards with this activity. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt large-scale upper trough will pivot south and east across portions of the north-central to western U.S. on Friday. A swath of 60-80 kt 500 mb flow will stretch from the southern Rockies to the Great Lakes ahead of the upper trough. At the surface, low pressure will develop northeast from the KS/MO/IA vicinity Friday morning, to southern Ontario/Quebec by early Saturday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast across portions of the Mid-MS Valley/Great Lakes and southern Plains. A weak secondary surface low likely will develop across west TX, where a dryline will extend southward from the eastern Panhandle to the Big Bend region. Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary-layer moisture northward ahead of these surface features and beneath fast mid/upper southwesterly flow. This will support scattered severe storms late Friday afternoon into the overnight hours from portions of the southern Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Lower-MO/Mid-MS Valley to Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms north of a warm front will likely be ongoing during the morning into the afternoon across WI/northern MI. This activity may pose a risk for marginally severe hail. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough embedded within the northern branch of the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough will shift east across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest during the evening/overnight. This will facilitate the eastward progression of the surface front through the period, creating a focus for thunderstorm development. However, strong capping will limit development along the front, likely until closer to 00z, when stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the surface boundary and cooling aloft ensues. Thunderstorms will likely remain elevated atop the strong EML in the 850-700 mb layer, and will likely become undercut by the surface cold front given boundary-parallel flow through the cloud-bearing layer. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient MUCAPE will support organized convection capable of producing large hail. With time, cells may become training clusters, posing some isolated risk for damaging gusts. ...Southern Plains Vicinity... As a surface low develops across west TX, a triple point will emerge near the eastern TX Panhandle/South Plains vicinity. A stout EML will preclude convective development for much of the day. Near the triple point and northeast along the advancing cold front, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form in the 22-00z time frame. Supercell wind profiles with large MUCAPE, very steep lapse rates, and elongated hodographs suggests initial supercells will pose a risk for large to very large hail through early evening. Thereafter, boundary-parallel flow will result in clustering/training as convection also becomes undercut by the front. Damaging gusts also may occur with initial supercells given a well-mixed boundary layer/steep low-level lapse rates beneath the EML. Additionally, some strong gust potential could occur into the Ozarks vicinity as clustering ensues, but hail is expected to be the main concern. ..Leitman.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1251 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM LOWER MICHIGAN TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the parts of the Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards with this activity. ...Synopsis... A positive-tilt large-scale upper trough will pivot south and east across portions of the north-central to western U.S. on Friday. A swath of 60-80 kt 500 mb flow will stretch from the southern Rockies to the Great Lakes ahead of the upper trough. At the surface, low pressure will develop northeast from the KS/MO/IA vicinity Friday morning, to southern Ontario/Quebec by early Saturday. As this occurs, a cold front will develop southeast across portions of the Mid-MS Valley/Great Lakes and southern Plains. A weak secondary surface low likely will develop across west TX, where a dryline will extend southward from the eastern Panhandle to the Big Bend region. Southerly low-level flow will transport modest boundary-layer moisture northward ahead of these surface features and beneath fast mid/upper southwesterly flow. This will support scattered severe storms late Friday afternoon into the overnight hours from portions of the southern Plains to the Great Lakes. ...Lower-MO/Mid-MS Valley to Great Lakes... Elevated thunderstorms north of a warm front will likely be ongoing during the morning into the afternoon across WI/northern MI. This activity may pose a risk for marginally severe hail. Meanwhile, a shortwave upper trough embedded within the northern branch of the larger-scale western U.S. upper trough will shift east across the northern Plains and Upper Midwest during the evening/overnight. This will facilitate the eastward progression of the surface front through the period, creating a focus for thunderstorm development. However, strong capping will limit development along the front, likely until closer to 00z, when stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the surface boundary and cooling aloft ensues. Thunderstorms will likely remain elevated atop the strong EML in the 850-700 mb layer, and will likely become undercut by the surface cold front given boundary-parallel flow through the cloud-bearing layer. Nevertheless, steep midlevel lapse rates and sufficient MUCAPE will support organized convection capable of producing large hail. With time, cells may become training clusters, posing some isolated risk for damaging gusts. ...Southern Plains Vicinity... As a surface low develops across west TX, a triple point will emerge near the eastern TX Panhandle/South Plains vicinity. A stout EML will preclude convective development for much of the day. Near the triple point and northeast along the advancing cold front, isolated to scattered thunderstorms should form in the 22-00z time frame. Supercell wind profiles with large MUCAPE, very steep lapse rates, and elongated hodographs suggests initial supercells will pose a risk for large to very large hail through early evening. Thereafter, boundary-parallel flow will result in clustering/training as convection also becomes undercut by the front. Damaging gusts also may occur with initial supercells given a well-mixed boundary layer/steep low-level lapse rates beneath the EML. Additionally, some strong gust potential could occur into the Ozarks vicinity as clustering ensues, but hail is expected to be the main concern. ..Leitman.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Central Plains to the Upper Midwest... Mean upper ridge is forecast to shift east during the period as a broad corridor of mid-level height falls spread across much of the Rockies into the upper MS Valley region. As this occurs, southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies-central Plains-Upper Midwest. This evolution supports surface pressure rises across the northern Plains and a pronounced cold front will surge into southern MN-northwest IA-eastern NE by 18/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast south of this wind shift from eastern CO into southeast NE. As temperatures rise through the mid 80s, convective temperatures will be breached and frontal convergence should encourage thunderstorm development by 22-23z. Wile PW values are a bit marginal, surface dew points should rise into the mid 50s, and SBCAPE is expected to exceed 2500 J/kg by peak heating along the northeastern edge of the steeper lapse rate plume. HRRR forecast sounding for OMA at 18/00z exhibits very strong deep-layer shear with substantial 0-3km SRH. It appears scattered supercells may ultimately evolve along a corridor from southeast NE into southwest IA, and this activity will likely prove efficient in generating hail. Hail in excess of 2 inches may be noted in the most robust updrafts due to favorable hodographs. Although moisture is a bit scant, a narrow window for tornadoes does appear to exist if dew points can rise into the upper 50s, and this is most likely across portions of eastern NE into western IA. Supercell threat will spread northeast along the nose of a strengthening LLJ into the Upper Midwest during the evening hours; however, conditions downstream will be less favorable for surface-based convection by mid evening, and elevated updrafts should be more common. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Central Plains to the Upper Midwest... Mean upper ridge is forecast to shift east during the period as a broad corridor of mid-level height falls spread across much of the Rockies into the upper MS Valley region. As this occurs, southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies-central Plains-Upper Midwest. This evolution supports surface pressure rises across the northern Plains and a pronounced cold front will surge into southern MN-northwest IA-eastern NE by 18/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast south of this wind shift from eastern CO into southeast NE. As temperatures rise through the mid 80s, convective temperatures will be breached and frontal convergence should encourage thunderstorm development by 22-23z. Wile PW values are a bit marginal, surface dew points should rise into the mid 50s, and SBCAPE is expected to exceed 2500 J/kg by peak heating along the northeastern edge of the steeper lapse rate plume. HRRR forecast sounding for OMA at 18/00z exhibits very strong deep-layer shear with substantial 0-3km SRH. It appears scattered supercells may ultimately evolve along a corridor from southeast NE into southwest IA, and this activity will likely prove efficient in generating hail. Hail in excess of 2 inches may be noted in the most robust updrafts due to favorable hodographs. Although moisture is a bit scant, a narrow window for tornadoes does appear to exist if dew points can rise into the upper 50s, and this is most likely across portions of eastern NE into western IA. Supercell threat will spread northeast along the nose of a strengthening LLJ into the Upper Midwest during the evening hours; however, conditions downstream will be less favorable for surface-based convection by mid evening, and elevated updrafts should be more common. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Central Plains to the Upper Midwest... Mean upper ridge is forecast to shift east during the period as a broad corridor of mid-level height falls spread across much of the Rockies into the upper MS Valley region. As this occurs, southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies-central Plains-Upper Midwest. This evolution supports surface pressure rises across the northern Plains and a pronounced cold front will surge into southern MN-northwest IA-eastern NE by 18/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast south of this wind shift from eastern CO into southeast NE. As temperatures rise through the mid 80s, convective temperatures will be breached and frontal convergence should encourage thunderstorm development by 22-23z. Wile PW values are a bit marginal, surface dew points should rise into the mid 50s, and SBCAPE is expected to exceed 2500 J/kg by peak heating along the northeastern edge of the steeper lapse rate plume. HRRR forecast sounding for OMA at 18/00z exhibits very strong deep-layer shear with substantial 0-3km SRH. It appears scattered supercells may ultimately evolve along a corridor from southeast NE into southwest IA, and this activity will likely prove efficient in generating hail. Hail in excess of 2 inches may be noted in the most robust updrafts due to favorable hodographs. Although moisture is a bit scant, a narrow window for tornadoes does appear to exist if dew points can rise into the upper 50s, and this is most likely across portions of eastern NE into western IA. Supercell threat will spread northeast along the nose of a strengthening LLJ into the Upper Midwest during the evening hours; however, conditions downstream will be less favorable for surface-based convection by mid evening, and elevated updrafts should be more common. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Central Plains to the Upper Midwest... Mean upper ridge is forecast to shift east during the period as a broad corridor of mid-level height falls spread across much of the Rockies into the upper MS Valley region. As this occurs, southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies-central Plains-Upper Midwest. This evolution supports surface pressure rises across the northern Plains and a pronounced cold front will surge into southern MN-northwest IA-eastern NE by 18/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast south of this wind shift from eastern CO into southeast NE. As temperatures rise through the mid 80s, convective temperatures will be breached and frontal convergence should encourage thunderstorm development by 22-23z. Wile PW values are a bit marginal, surface dew points should rise into the mid 50s, and SBCAPE is expected to exceed 2500 J/kg by peak heating along the northeastern edge of the steeper lapse rate plume. HRRR forecast sounding for OMA at 18/00z exhibits very strong deep-layer shear with substantial 0-3km SRH. It appears scattered supercells may ultimately evolve along a corridor from southeast NE into southwest IA, and this activity will likely prove efficient in generating hail. Hail in excess of 2 inches may be noted in the most robust updrafts due to favorable hodographs. Although moisture is a bit scant, a narrow window for tornadoes does appear to exist if dew points can rise into the upper 50s, and this is most likely across portions of eastern NE into western IA. Supercell threat will spread northeast along the nose of a strengthening LLJ into the Upper Midwest during the evening hours; however, conditions downstream will be less favorable for surface-based convection by mid evening, and elevated updrafts should be more common. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Central Plains to the Upper Midwest... Mean upper ridge is forecast to shift east during the period as a broad corridor of mid-level height falls spread across much of the Rockies into the upper MS Valley region. As this occurs, southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies-central Plains-Upper Midwest. This evolution supports surface pressure rises across the northern Plains and a pronounced cold front will surge into southern MN-northwest IA-eastern NE by 18/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast south of this wind shift from eastern CO into southeast NE. As temperatures rise through the mid 80s, convective temperatures will be breached and frontal convergence should encourage thunderstorm development by 22-23z. Wile PW values are a bit marginal, surface dew points should rise into the mid 50s, and SBCAPE is expected to exceed 2500 J/kg by peak heating along the northeastern edge of the steeper lapse rate plume. HRRR forecast sounding for OMA at 18/00z exhibits very strong deep-layer shear with substantial 0-3km SRH. It appears scattered supercells may ultimately evolve along a corridor from southeast NE into southwest IA, and this activity will likely prove efficient in generating hail. Hail in excess of 2 inches may be noted in the most robust updrafts due to favorable hodographs. Although moisture is a bit scant, a narrow window for tornadoes does appear to exist if dew points can rise into the upper 50s, and this is most likely across portions of eastern NE into western IA. Supercell threat will spread northeast along the nose of a strengthening LLJ into the Upper Midwest during the evening hours; however, conditions downstream will be less favorable for surface-based convection by mid evening, and elevated updrafts should be more common. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Central Plains to the Upper Midwest... Mean upper ridge is forecast to shift east during the period as a broad corridor of mid-level height falls spread across much of the Rockies into the upper MS Valley region. As this occurs, southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies-central Plains-Upper Midwest. This evolution supports surface pressure rises across the northern Plains and a pronounced cold front will surge into southern MN-northwest IA-eastern NE by 18/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast south of this wind shift from eastern CO into southeast NE. As temperatures rise through the mid 80s, convective temperatures will be breached and frontal convergence should encourage thunderstorm development by 22-23z. Wile PW values are a bit marginal, surface dew points should rise into the mid 50s, and SBCAPE is expected to exceed 2500 J/kg by peak heating along the northeastern edge of the steeper lapse rate plume. HRRR forecast sounding for OMA at 18/00z exhibits very strong deep-layer shear with substantial 0-3km SRH. It appears scattered supercells may ultimately evolve along a corridor from southeast NE into southwest IA, and this activity will likely prove efficient in generating hail. Hail in excess of 2 inches may be noted in the most robust updrafts due to favorable hodographs. Although moisture is a bit scant, a narrow window for tornadoes does appear to exist if dew points can rise into the upper 50s, and this is most likely across portions of eastern NE into western IA. Supercell threat will spread northeast along the nose of a strengthening LLJ into the Upper Midwest during the evening hours; however, conditions downstream will be less favorable for surface-based convection by mid evening, and elevated updrafts should be more common. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Central Plains to the Upper Midwest... Mean upper ridge is forecast to shift east during the period as a broad corridor of mid-level height falls spread across much of the Rockies into the upper MS Valley region. As this occurs, southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies-central Plains-Upper Midwest. This evolution supports surface pressure rises across the northern Plains and a pronounced cold front will surge into southern MN-northwest IA-eastern NE by 18/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast south of this wind shift from eastern CO into southeast NE. As temperatures rise through the mid 80s, convective temperatures will be breached and frontal convergence should encourage thunderstorm development by 22-23z. Wile PW values are a bit marginal, surface dew points should rise into the mid 50s, and SBCAPE is expected to exceed 2500 J/kg by peak heating along the northeastern edge of the steeper lapse rate plume. HRRR forecast sounding for OMA at 18/00z exhibits very strong deep-layer shear with substantial 0-3km SRH. It appears scattered supercells may ultimately evolve along a corridor from southeast NE into southwest IA, and this activity will likely prove efficient in generating hail. Hail in excess of 2 inches may be noted in the most robust updrafts due to favorable hodographs. Although moisture is a bit scant, a narrow window for tornadoes does appear to exist if dew points can rise into the upper 50s, and this is most likely across portions of eastern NE into western IA. Supercell threat will spread northeast along the nose of a strengthening LLJ into the Upper Midwest during the evening hours; however, conditions downstream will be less favorable for surface-based convection by mid evening, and elevated updrafts should be more common. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1247 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Central Plains to the Upper Midwest... Mean upper ridge is forecast to shift east during the period as a broad corridor of mid-level height falls spread across much of the Rockies into the upper MS Valley region. As this occurs, southwesterly flow will strengthen across the southern Rockies-central Plains-Upper Midwest. This evolution supports surface pressure rises across the northern Plains and a pronounced cold front will surge into southern MN-northwest IA-eastern NE by 18/00z. Strong boundary-layer heating is forecast south of this wind shift from eastern CO into southeast NE. As temperatures rise through the mid 80s, convective temperatures will be breached and frontal convergence should encourage thunderstorm development by 22-23z. Wile PW values are a bit marginal, surface dew points should rise into the mid 50s, and SBCAPE is expected to exceed 2500 J/kg by peak heating along the northeastern edge of the steeper lapse rate plume. HRRR forecast sounding for OMA at 18/00z exhibits very strong deep-layer shear with substantial 0-3km SRH. It appears scattered supercells may ultimately evolve along a corridor from southeast NE into southwest IA, and this activity will likely prove efficient in generating hail. Hail in excess of 2 inches may be noted in the most robust updrafts due to favorable hodographs. Although moisture is a bit scant, a narrow window for tornadoes does appear to exist if dew points can rise into the upper 50s, and this is most likely across portions of eastern NE into western IA. Supercell threat will spread northeast along the nose of a strengthening LLJ into the Upper Midwest during the evening hours; however, conditions downstream will be less favorable for surface-based convection by mid evening, and elevated updrafts should be more common. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 04/17/2025 Read more

MD 0455 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0455 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0923 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Areas affected...Portions of central/eastern Kansas Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 170223Z - 170430Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Isolated large hail and potentially strong/damaging surface gusts are possible as elevated storms move eastward this evening. DISCUSSION...Moisture return continues this evening in the southern/central Plains. Dewpoints have risen into the mid 50s F in south-central Kansas. Even with this increase in low-level moisture, cooling surface temperatures have contributed to slowly increasing CIN. With the low-level jet increasing within the region (around 50 kts per KVNX and KICT VAD data), convection has increased in coverage and intensity near and east of Dodge City. A continued increase in 850 mb winds through the evening will support additional convective development and potentially some clustering as activity moves into parts of eastern Kansas. There is some possibility that additional storms can develop north of the current activity, but confidence is low. The observed soundings at Dodge City and Topeka showed steep mid-level lapse rates (around 8 C/km). The stronger elevated storms would be capable of large hail given over 50 kts of effective shear. If storms can cluster later this evening, there would be some potential for a strong/damaging surface gust to occur as well. ..Wendt/Guyer.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC... LAT...LON 37299791 37399941 37520009 37590037 37750039 38110017 38979984 39369833 38979608 38219530 37649561 37429623 37269720 37299791 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts remain possible this evening into tonight primarily across the central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough ejecting through the ridge into the central High Plains. 1km flow is beginning to strengthen ahead of this feature, and will do so markedly later this evening when speeds may exceed 60kt into southern KS. LLJ should veer into west central MO by the end of the period. Robust convection is expected to develop along the nose of the LLJ later this evening, and one or more clusters of storms should propagate across the central Plains into western MO. Hail and wind are possible with this activity. ..Darrow.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts remain possible this evening into tonight primarily across the central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough ejecting through the ridge into the central High Plains. 1km flow is beginning to strengthen ahead of this feature, and will do so markedly later this evening when speeds may exceed 60kt into southern KS. LLJ should veer into west central MO by the end of the period. Robust convection is expected to develop along the nose of the LLJ later this evening, and one or more clusters of storms should propagate across the central Plains into western MO. Hail and wind are possible with this activity. ..Darrow.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts remain possible this evening into tonight primarily across the central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough ejecting through the ridge into the central High Plains. 1km flow is beginning to strengthen ahead of this feature, and will do so markedly later this evening when speeds may exceed 60kt into southern KS. LLJ should veer into west central MO by the end of the period. Robust convection is expected to develop along the nose of the LLJ later this evening, and one or more clusters of storms should propagate across the central Plains into western MO. Hail and wind are possible with this activity. ..Darrow.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts remain possible this evening into tonight primarily across the central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough ejecting through the ridge into the central High Plains. 1km flow is beginning to strengthen ahead of this feature, and will do so markedly later this evening when speeds may exceed 60kt into southern KS. LLJ should veer into west central MO by the end of the period. Robust convection is expected to develop along the nose of the LLJ later this evening, and one or more clusters of storms should propagate across the central Plains into western MO. Hail and wind are possible with this activity. ..Darrow.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0739 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 170100Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRIMARILY ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts remain possible this evening into tonight primarily across the central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...01z Update... Early-evening water-vapor imagery depicts a low-amplitude short-wave trough ejecting through the ridge into the central High Plains. 1km flow is beginning to strengthen ahead of this feature, and will do so markedly later this evening when speeds may exceed 60kt into southern KS. LLJ should veer into west central MO by the end of the period. Robust convection is expected to develop along the nose of the LLJ later this evening, and one or more clusters of storms should propagate across the central Plains into western MO. Hail and wind are possible with this activity. ..Darrow.. 04/17/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Wed Apr 16 23:16:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Wed Apr 16 23:16:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0454 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF SWRN INTO S CNTRL KS
Mesoscale Discussion 0454 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Areas affected...parts of swrn into s cntrl KS Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 162049Z - 162315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent SUMMARY...An isolated supercell or two may evolve from initially high-based thunderstorm development by 6-7 PM CDT, posing primarily a risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. DISCUSSION...As boundary-layer heating and mixing continues, deepening high-based convective development is ongoing in a corridor near/north of the Raton Mesa vicinity into southwestern Kansas. This appears focused downstream of a weak mid-level perturbation, which is progressing toward the crest of large-scale mid-level ridging across the southern Rockies through southern Great Plains. With continuing insolation, this convective development is likely to persist and gradually spread northeastward and eastward with the supporting large-scale forcing for ascent. Strongest boundary-layer heating appears focused northwest of the Dalhart TX toward Dodge City KS vicinity, where surface dew points remain in the upper 30s to lower 40s F. However, more substantive moistening is ongoing farther east, including a corridor across the Medicine Lodge toward Great Bend KS vicinities, where dew points may continue to increase into and through the lower mid 50s F, as southerly low-level flow strengthens through 23-00Z. It appears that this may contribute mixed-layer CAPE increasing to the order of 1000 J/kg. In the presence of lower/mid-tropospheric warm advection, the boundary-layer destabilization may largely remain suppressed by warming, elevated mixed-layer air. However, the eventual intensification of initially high-based convection overspreading the region appears at least possible later this afternoon, particularly near/east of the Dodge City vicinity, aided by inflow of the potentially more unstable air. If this becomes sustained, shear beneath moderate to strong westerly mid/upper flow appears more than sufficient to support the evolution an isolated boundary-layer based supercell or two, primarily posing a risk for severe hail and locally strong surface gusts. ..Kerr/Mosier.. 04/16/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC... LAT...LON 38120106 38779896 38019788 37259826 37080128 38120106 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more