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SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Synopsis... A broad open wave trough will extend from the western Canada into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Thursday, with broad southwesterly flow extending from the Southwest through the central/northern Plains. A surface cyclone is expected to develop across western Kansas, with a diffuse frontal boundary extending southwest to northeast across the Central Plains into the Midwest. The triple point near the low/dryline/front interface is expected to be the focus point for convective development by the afternoon and evening from eastern Nebraska to Iowa and into Minnesota. ...Eastern Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As the low develops across western Kansas late Wednesday into Thursday, southerly return flow will bring moisture northward into the central Plains. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected as differential heating is maximized along a frontal boundary across eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon. This region will be characterized by dew points in the 50s to 60s, with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg by the afternoon amid a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. While MLCIN is expected to increase across portions of Iowa, a corridor of open warm sector is expected to develop across eastern Nebraska where wind profiles will support supercells. These supercells may be initially surface based, capable of large hail (some very large 2"+), damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Boundary parallel flow will likely lead to some undercutting of storms as well as storm motions that favor training cells, which will likely limit the tornado threat into the evening while potential for large hail and damaging wind continues with eastward extent. A few surface based cells may develop as far north as southwestern Minnesota. Moisture profiles are less favorable this far northward but convergence along the front/surface trough along with favorable wind profiles will support some risk for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Synopsis... A broad open wave trough will extend from the western Canada into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Thursday, with broad southwesterly flow extending from the Southwest through the central/northern Plains. A surface cyclone is expected to develop across western Kansas, with a diffuse frontal boundary extending southwest to northeast across the Central Plains into the Midwest. The triple point near the low/dryline/front interface is expected to be the focus point for convective development by the afternoon and evening from eastern Nebraska to Iowa and into Minnesota. ...Eastern Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As the low develops across western Kansas late Wednesday into Thursday, southerly return flow will bring moisture northward into the central Plains. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected as differential heating is maximized along a frontal boundary across eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon. This region will be characterized by dew points in the 50s to 60s, with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg by the afternoon amid a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. While MLCIN is expected to increase across portions of Iowa, a corridor of open warm sector is expected to develop across eastern Nebraska where wind profiles will support supercells. These supercells may be initially surface based, capable of large hail (some very large 2"+), damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Boundary parallel flow will likely lead to some undercutting of storms as well as storm motions that favor training cells, which will likely limit the tornado threat into the evening while potential for large hail and damaging wind continues with eastward extent. A few surface based cells may develop as far north as southwestern Minnesota. Moisture profiles are less favorable this far northward but convergence along the front/surface trough along with favorable wind profiles will support some risk for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Synopsis... A broad open wave trough will extend from the western Canada into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Thursday, with broad southwesterly flow extending from the Southwest through the central/northern Plains. A surface cyclone is expected to develop across western Kansas, with a diffuse frontal boundary extending southwest to northeast across the Central Plains into the Midwest. The triple point near the low/dryline/front interface is expected to be the focus point for convective development by the afternoon and evening from eastern Nebraska to Iowa and into Minnesota. ...Eastern Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As the low develops across western Kansas late Wednesday into Thursday, southerly return flow will bring moisture northward into the central Plains. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected as differential heating is maximized along a frontal boundary across eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon. This region will be characterized by dew points in the 50s to 60s, with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg by the afternoon amid a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. While MLCIN is expected to increase across portions of Iowa, a corridor of open warm sector is expected to develop across eastern Nebraska where wind profiles will support supercells. These supercells may be initially surface based, capable of large hail (some very large 2"+), damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Boundary parallel flow will likely lead to some undercutting of storms as well as storm motions that favor training cells, which will likely limit the tornado threat into the evening while potential for large hail and damaging wind continues with eastward extent. A few surface based cells may develop as far north as southwestern Minnesota. Moisture profiles are less favorable this far northward but convergence along the front/surface trough along with favorable wind profiles will support some risk for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Synopsis... A broad open wave trough will extend from the western Canada into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Thursday, with broad southwesterly flow extending from the Southwest through the central/northern Plains. A surface cyclone is expected to develop across western Kansas, with a diffuse frontal boundary extending southwest to northeast across the Central Plains into the Midwest. The triple point near the low/dryline/front interface is expected to be the focus point for convective development by the afternoon and evening from eastern Nebraska to Iowa and into Minnesota. ...Eastern Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As the low develops across western Kansas late Wednesday into Thursday, southerly return flow will bring moisture northward into the central Plains. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected as differential heating is maximized along a frontal boundary across eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon. This region will be characterized by dew points in the 50s to 60s, with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg by the afternoon amid a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. While MLCIN is expected to increase across portions of Iowa, a corridor of open warm sector is expected to develop across eastern Nebraska where wind profiles will support supercells. These supercells may be initially surface based, capable of large hail (some very large 2"+), damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Boundary parallel flow will likely lead to some undercutting of storms as well as storm motions that favor training cells, which will likely limit the tornado threat into the evening while potential for large hail and damaging wind continues with eastward extent. A few surface based cells may develop as far north as southwestern Minnesota. Moisture profiles are less favorable this far northward but convergence along the front/surface trough along with favorable wind profiles will support some risk for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Synopsis... A broad open wave trough will extend from the western Canada into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Thursday, with broad southwesterly flow extending from the Southwest through the central/northern Plains. A surface cyclone is expected to develop across western Kansas, with a diffuse frontal boundary extending southwest to northeast across the Central Plains into the Midwest. The triple point near the low/dryline/front interface is expected to be the focus point for convective development by the afternoon and evening from eastern Nebraska to Iowa and into Minnesota. ...Eastern Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As the low develops across western Kansas late Wednesday into Thursday, southerly return flow will bring moisture northward into the central Plains. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected as differential heating is maximized along a frontal boundary across eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon. This region will be characterized by dew points in the 50s to 60s, with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg by the afternoon amid a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. While MLCIN is expected to increase across portions of Iowa, a corridor of open warm sector is expected to develop across eastern Nebraska where wind profiles will support supercells. These supercells may be initially surface based, capable of large hail (some very large 2"+), damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Boundary parallel flow will likely lead to some undercutting of storms as well as storm motions that favor training cells, which will likely limit the tornado threat into the evening while potential for large hail and damaging wind continues with eastward extent. A few surface based cells may develop as far north as southwestern Minnesota. Moisture profiles are less favorable this far northward but convergence along the front/surface trough along with favorable wind profiles will support some risk for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Synopsis... A broad open wave trough will extend from the western Canada into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Thursday, with broad southwesterly flow extending from the Southwest through the central/northern Plains. A surface cyclone is expected to develop across western Kansas, with a diffuse frontal boundary extending southwest to northeast across the Central Plains into the Midwest. The triple point near the low/dryline/front interface is expected to be the focus point for convective development by the afternoon and evening from eastern Nebraska to Iowa and into Minnesota. ...Eastern Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As the low develops across western Kansas late Wednesday into Thursday, southerly return flow will bring moisture northward into the central Plains. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected as differential heating is maximized along a frontal boundary across eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon. This region will be characterized by dew points in the 50s to 60s, with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg by the afternoon amid a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. While MLCIN is expected to increase across portions of Iowa, a corridor of open warm sector is expected to develop across eastern Nebraska where wind profiles will support supercells. These supercells may be initially surface based, capable of large hail (some very large 2"+), damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Boundary parallel flow will likely lead to some undercutting of storms as well as storm motions that favor training cells, which will likely limit the tornado threat into the evening while potential for large hail and damaging wind continues with eastward extent. A few surface based cells may develop as far north as southwestern Minnesota. Moisture profiles are less favorable this far northward but convergence along the front/surface trough along with favorable wind profiles will support some risk for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Synopsis... A broad open wave trough will extend from the western Canada into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Thursday, with broad southwesterly flow extending from the Southwest through the central/northern Plains. A surface cyclone is expected to develop across western Kansas, with a diffuse frontal boundary extending southwest to northeast across the Central Plains into the Midwest. The triple point near the low/dryline/front interface is expected to be the focus point for convective development by the afternoon and evening from eastern Nebraska to Iowa and into Minnesota. ...Eastern Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As the low develops across western Kansas late Wednesday into Thursday, southerly return flow will bring moisture northward into the central Plains. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected as differential heating is maximized along a frontal boundary across eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon. This region will be characterized by dew points in the 50s to 60s, with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg by the afternoon amid a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. While MLCIN is expected to increase across portions of Iowa, a corridor of open warm sector is expected to develop across eastern Nebraska where wind profiles will support supercells. These supercells may be initially surface based, capable of large hail (some very large 2"+), damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Boundary parallel flow will likely lead to some undercutting of storms as well as storm motions that favor training cells, which will likely limit the tornado threat into the evening while potential for large hail and damaging wind continues with eastward extent. A few surface based cells may develop as far north as southwestern Minnesota. Moisture profiles are less favorable this far northward but convergence along the front/surface trough along with favorable wind profiles will support some risk for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Synopsis... A broad open wave trough will extend from the western Canada into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Thursday, with broad southwesterly flow extending from the Southwest through the central/northern Plains. A surface cyclone is expected to develop across western Kansas, with a diffuse frontal boundary extending southwest to northeast across the Central Plains into the Midwest. The triple point near the low/dryline/front interface is expected to be the focus point for convective development by the afternoon and evening from eastern Nebraska to Iowa and into Minnesota. ...Eastern Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As the low develops across western Kansas late Wednesday into Thursday, southerly return flow will bring moisture northward into the central Plains. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected as differential heating is maximized along a frontal boundary across eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon. This region will be characterized by dew points in the 50s to 60s, with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg by the afternoon amid a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. While MLCIN is expected to increase across portions of Iowa, a corridor of open warm sector is expected to develop across eastern Nebraska where wind profiles will support supercells. These supercells may be initially surface based, capable of large hail (some very large 2"+), damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Boundary parallel flow will likely lead to some undercutting of storms as well as storm motions that favor training cells, which will likely limit the tornado threat into the evening while potential for large hail and damaging wind continues with eastward extent. A few surface based cells may develop as far north as southwestern Minnesota. Moisture profiles are less favorable this far northward but convergence along the front/surface trough along with favorable wind profiles will support some risk for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance and surface observations supported an eastward expansion of Elevated highlights farther into Nebraska. Minimal boundary layer moisture and persistent westerly flow will keep relative humidity rather low (10-20% range) through the day coupled with breezy west winds, supporting Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. Otherwise, forecast remains on track across the Southwest and adjacent southern High Plains with a broad area of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns in place. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will evolve from an upper low off the southern California coast today. This will drive increasing mid-level winds across much of the Southwest. East of the Divide, surface lee troughing will increase through the day. ...Eastern Arizona into New Mexico into southern High Plains... The strongest mid-level winds will not arrive until the evening, but moderate flow will be ongoing during the afternoon. Coupled with the lee trough to the east, 15-25 mph winds are possible across a broad portion of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. The strongest winds are expected in eastern Arizona and New Mexico. RH of 10-15% (locally 5-10%) in these areas will promote a critical fire weather threat. ...Central High Plains... With an extension of the lee trough into western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming, a zone of 15-20 mph downslope winds will develop during the afternoon. RH of 10-20% appears possible. Elevated fire weather is expected this afternoon. ...Mid-Missouri Valley... Southerly/southeasterly winds will reach 15-20 mph during the late morning to mid-afternoon. Model variance in terms of the RH during the afternoon is large. This is likely due to uncertainty in the amount of surface heating with mid/upper-level clouds in the region. Fuels will at least support a locally elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance and surface observations supported an eastward expansion of Elevated highlights farther into Nebraska. Minimal boundary layer moisture and persistent westerly flow will keep relative humidity rather low (10-20% range) through the day coupled with breezy west winds, supporting Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. Otherwise, forecast remains on track across the Southwest and adjacent southern High Plains with a broad area of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns in place. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will evolve from an upper low off the southern California coast today. This will drive increasing mid-level winds across much of the Southwest. East of the Divide, surface lee troughing will increase through the day. ...Eastern Arizona into New Mexico into southern High Plains... The strongest mid-level winds will not arrive until the evening, but moderate flow will be ongoing during the afternoon. Coupled with the lee trough to the east, 15-25 mph winds are possible across a broad portion of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. The strongest winds are expected in eastern Arizona and New Mexico. RH of 10-15% (locally 5-10%) in these areas will promote a critical fire weather threat. ...Central High Plains... With an extension of the lee trough into western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming, a zone of 15-20 mph downslope winds will develop during the afternoon. RH of 10-20% appears possible. Elevated fire weather is expected this afternoon. ...Mid-Missouri Valley... Southerly/southeasterly winds will reach 15-20 mph during the late morning to mid-afternoon. Model variance in terms of the RH during the afternoon is large. This is likely due to uncertainty in the amount of surface heating with mid/upper-level clouds in the region. Fuels will at least support a locally elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance and surface observations supported an eastward expansion of Elevated highlights farther into Nebraska. Minimal boundary layer moisture and persistent westerly flow will keep relative humidity rather low (10-20% range) through the day coupled with breezy west winds, supporting Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. Otherwise, forecast remains on track across the Southwest and adjacent southern High Plains with a broad area of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns in place. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will evolve from an upper low off the southern California coast today. This will drive increasing mid-level winds across much of the Southwest. East of the Divide, surface lee troughing will increase through the day. ...Eastern Arizona into New Mexico into southern High Plains... The strongest mid-level winds will not arrive until the evening, but moderate flow will be ongoing during the afternoon. Coupled with the lee trough to the east, 15-25 mph winds are possible across a broad portion of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. The strongest winds are expected in eastern Arizona and New Mexico. RH of 10-15% (locally 5-10%) in these areas will promote a critical fire weather threat. ...Central High Plains... With an extension of the lee trough into western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming, a zone of 15-20 mph downslope winds will develop during the afternoon. RH of 10-20% appears possible. Elevated fire weather is expected this afternoon. ...Mid-Missouri Valley... Southerly/southeasterly winds will reach 15-20 mph during the late morning to mid-afternoon. Model variance in terms of the RH during the afternoon is large. This is likely due to uncertainty in the amount of surface heating with mid/upper-level clouds in the region. Fuels will at least support a locally elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance and surface observations supported an eastward expansion of Elevated highlights farther into Nebraska. Minimal boundary layer moisture and persistent westerly flow will keep relative humidity rather low (10-20% range) through the day coupled with breezy west winds, supporting Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. Otherwise, forecast remains on track across the Southwest and adjacent southern High Plains with a broad area of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns in place. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will evolve from an upper low off the southern California coast today. This will drive increasing mid-level winds across much of the Southwest. East of the Divide, surface lee troughing will increase through the day. ...Eastern Arizona into New Mexico into southern High Plains... The strongest mid-level winds will not arrive until the evening, but moderate flow will be ongoing during the afternoon. Coupled with the lee trough to the east, 15-25 mph winds are possible across a broad portion of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. The strongest winds are expected in eastern Arizona and New Mexico. RH of 10-15% (locally 5-10%) in these areas will promote a critical fire weather threat. ...Central High Plains... With an extension of the lee trough into western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming, a zone of 15-20 mph downslope winds will develop during the afternoon. RH of 10-20% appears possible. Elevated fire weather is expected this afternoon. ...Mid-Missouri Valley... Southerly/southeasterly winds will reach 15-20 mph during the late morning to mid-afternoon. Model variance in terms of the RH during the afternoon is large. This is likely due to uncertainty in the amount of surface heating with mid/upper-level clouds in the region. Fuels will at least support a locally elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance and surface observations supported an eastward expansion of Elevated highlights farther into Nebraska. Minimal boundary layer moisture and persistent westerly flow will keep relative humidity rather low (10-20% range) through the day coupled with breezy west winds, supporting Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. Otherwise, forecast remains on track across the Southwest and adjacent southern High Plains with a broad area of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns in place. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will evolve from an upper low off the southern California coast today. This will drive increasing mid-level winds across much of the Southwest. East of the Divide, surface lee troughing will increase through the day. ...Eastern Arizona into New Mexico into southern High Plains... The strongest mid-level winds will not arrive until the evening, but moderate flow will be ongoing during the afternoon. Coupled with the lee trough to the east, 15-25 mph winds are possible across a broad portion of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. The strongest winds are expected in eastern Arizona and New Mexico. RH of 10-15% (locally 5-10%) in these areas will promote a critical fire weather threat. ...Central High Plains... With an extension of the lee trough into western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming, a zone of 15-20 mph downslope winds will develop during the afternoon. RH of 10-20% appears possible. Elevated fire weather is expected this afternoon. ...Mid-Missouri Valley... Southerly/southeasterly winds will reach 15-20 mph during the late morning to mid-afternoon. Model variance in terms of the RH during the afternoon is large. This is likely due to uncertainty in the amount of surface heating with mid/upper-level clouds in the region. Fuels will at least support a locally elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance and surface observations supported an eastward expansion of Elevated highlights farther into Nebraska. Minimal boundary layer moisture and persistent westerly flow will keep relative humidity rather low (10-20% range) through the day coupled with breezy west winds, supporting Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. Otherwise, forecast remains on track across the Southwest and adjacent southern High Plains with a broad area of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns in place. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will evolve from an upper low off the southern California coast today. This will drive increasing mid-level winds across much of the Southwest. East of the Divide, surface lee troughing will increase through the day. ...Eastern Arizona into New Mexico into southern High Plains... The strongest mid-level winds will not arrive until the evening, but moderate flow will be ongoing during the afternoon. Coupled with the lee trough to the east, 15-25 mph winds are possible across a broad portion of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. The strongest winds are expected in eastern Arizona and New Mexico. RH of 10-15% (locally 5-10%) in these areas will promote a critical fire weather threat. ...Central High Plains... With an extension of the lee trough into western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming, a zone of 15-20 mph downslope winds will develop during the afternoon. RH of 10-20% appears possible. Elevated fire weather is expected this afternoon. ...Mid-Missouri Valley... Southerly/southeasterly winds will reach 15-20 mph during the late morning to mid-afternoon. Model variance in terms of the RH during the afternoon is large. This is likely due to uncertainty in the amount of surface heating with mid/upper-level clouds in the region. Fuels will at least support a locally elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance and surface observations supported an eastward expansion of Elevated highlights farther into Nebraska. Minimal boundary layer moisture and persistent westerly flow will keep relative humidity rather low (10-20% range) through the day coupled with breezy west winds, supporting Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. Otherwise, forecast remains on track across the Southwest and adjacent southern High Plains with a broad area of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns in place. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will evolve from an upper low off the southern California coast today. This will drive increasing mid-level winds across much of the Southwest. East of the Divide, surface lee troughing will increase through the day. ...Eastern Arizona into New Mexico into southern High Plains... The strongest mid-level winds will not arrive until the evening, but moderate flow will be ongoing during the afternoon. Coupled with the lee trough to the east, 15-25 mph winds are possible across a broad portion of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. The strongest winds are expected in eastern Arizona and New Mexico. RH of 10-15% (locally 5-10%) in these areas will promote a critical fire weather threat. ...Central High Plains... With an extension of the lee trough into western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming, a zone of 15-20 mph downslope winds will develop during the afternoon. RH of 10-20% appears possible. Elevated fire weather is expected this afternoon. ...Mid-Missouri Valley... Southerly/southeasterly winds will reach 15-20 mph during the late morning to mid-afternoon. Model variance in terms of the RH during the afternoon is large. This is likely due to uncertainty in the amount of surface heating with mid/upper-level clouds in the region. Fuels will at least support a locally elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1127 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161700Z - 171200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR EASTERN ARIZONA INTO NEW MEXICO INTO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance and surface observations supported an eastward expansion of Elevated highlights farther into Nebraska. Minimal boundary layer moisture and persistent westerly flow will keep relative humidity rather low (10-20% range) through the day coupled with breezy west winds, supporting Elevated fire weather conditions across southeastern Wyoming and western Nebraska. Otherwise, forecast remains on track across the Southwest and adjacent southern High Plains with a broad area of Elevated to Critical fire weather concerns in place. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0157 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will evolve from an upper low off the southern California coast today. This will drive increasing mid-level winds across much of the Southwest. East of the Divide, surface lee troughing will increase through the day. ...Eastern Arizona into New Mexico into southern High Plains... The strongest mid-level winds will not arrive until the evening, but moderate flow will be ongoing during the afternoon. Coupled with the lee trough to the east, 15-25 mph winds are possible across a broad portion of the Southwest into the southern High Plains. The strongest winds are expected in eastern Arizona and New Mexico. RH of 10-15% (locally 5-10%) in these areas will promote a critical fire weather threat. ...Central High Plains... With an extension of the lee trough into western Nebraska and eastern Wyoming, a zone of 15-20 mph downslope winds will develop during the afternoon. RH of 10-20% appears possible. Elevated fire weather is expected this afternoon. ...Mid-Missouri Valley... Southerly/southeasterly winds will reach 15-20 mph during the late morning to mid-afternoon. Model variance in terms of the RH during the afternoon is large. This is likely due to uncertainty in the amount of surface heating with mid/upper-level clouds in the region. Fuels will at least support a locally elevated fire weather threat. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight... Upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into eastern Manitoba/northwest Ontario is forecast to shift eastward throughout the period. This eastward shift will occur as a shortwave trough drops south-southeastward through the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies, phasing with the upper low off the southern/central CA Coast as it does. This evolution will result in strengthening southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest into the central Plains, which in turn will foster a deepening lee surface trough across the High Plains and eventual surface cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Moisture return will also increase across the southern Plains, with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints likely across much of OK by this evening. Some thunderstorm development could occur during the late afternoon/early evening where the western edge of this moisture interacts with a dryline that extends south from the developing central High Plains surface low. Convergence along this boundary will be modest and convective initiation remains uncertain given the warm mid-level temperatures and resultant capping. Even so, an isolated storm or two appears possible from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. Strong mid-level flow (and resulting long hodographs) support a supercellular storm mode with any convection that is also to deepen and persist. Large hail and damaging gusts would be possible with any supercells. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later tonight as the surface low and any afternoon storms move eastward across southwest/south-central KS into the greater low-level moisture, and a strengthening low-level jet fosters increased warm-air advection. Hail will likely be the primary risk with these storms, but the dry subcloud layer in place could still support a few gusts to the surface as well. Overall severe coverage is still expected to remain low enough to keep 5%/Marginal probabilities. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight... Upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into eastern Manitoba/northwest Ontario is forecast to shift eastward throughout the period. This eastward shift will occur as a shortwave trough drops south-southeastward through the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies, phasing with the upper low off the southern/central CA Coast as it does. This evolution will result in strengthening southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest into the central Plains, which in turn will foster a deepening lee surface trough across the High Plains and eventual surface cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Moisture return will also increase across the southern Plains, with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints likely across much of OK by this evening. Some thunderstorm development could occur during the late afternoon/early evening where the western edge of this moisture interacts with a dryline that extends south from the developing central High Plains surface low. Convergence along this boundary will be modest and convective initiation remains uncertain given the warm mid-level temperatures and resultant capping. Even so, an isolated storm or two appears possible from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. Strong mid-level flow (and resulting long hodographs) support a supercellular storm mode with any convection that is also to deepen and persist. Large hail and damaging gusts would be possible with any supercells. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later tonight as the surface low and any afternoon storms move eastward across southwest/south-central KS into the greater low-level moisture, and a strengthening low-level jet fosters increased warm-air advection. Hail will likely be the primary risk with these storms, but the dry subcloud layer in place could still support a few gusts to the surface as well. Overall severe coverage is still expected to remain low enough to keep 5%/Marginal probabilities. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight... Upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into eastern Manitoba/northwest Ontario is forecast to shift eastward throughout the period. This eastward shift will occur as a shortwave trough drops south-southeastward through the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies, phasing with the upper low off the southern/central CA Coast as it does. This evolution will result in strengthening southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest into the central Plains, which in turn will foster a deepening lee surface trough across the High Plains and eventual surface cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Moisture return will also increase across the southern Plains, with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints likely across much of OK by this evening. Some thunderstorm development could occur during the late afternoon/early evening where the western edge of this moisture interacts with a dryline that extends south from the developing central High Plains surface low. Convergence along this boundary will be modest and convective initiation remains uncertain given the warm mid-level temperatures and resultant capping. Even so, an isolated storm or two appears possible from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. Strong mid-level flow (and resulting long hodographs) support a supercellular storm mode with any convection that is also to deepen and persist. Large hail and damaging gusts would be possible with any supercells. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later tonight as the surface low and any afternoon storms move eastward across southwest/south-central KS into the greater low-level moisture, and a strengthening low-level jet fosters increased warm-air advection. Hail will likely be the primary risk with these storms, but the dry subcloud layer in place could still support a few gusts to the surface as well. Overall severe coverage is still expected to remain low enough to keep 5%/Marginal probabilities. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1116 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 161630Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight... Upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into eastern Manitoba/northwest Ontario is forecast to shift eastward throughout the period. This eastward shift will occur as a shortwave trough drops south-southeastward through the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies, phasing with the upper low off the southern/central CA Coast as it does. This evolution will result in strengthening southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest into the central Plains, which in turn will foster a deepening lee surface trough across the High Plains and eventual surface cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Moisture return will also increase across the southern Plains, with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints likely across much of OK by this evening. Some thunderstorm development could occur during the late afternoon/early evening where the western edge of this moisture interacts with a dryline that extends south from the developing central High Plains surface low. Convergence along this boundary will be modest and convective initiation remains uncertain given the warm mid-level temperatures and resultant capping. Even so, an isolated storm or two appears possible from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. Strong mid-level flow (and resulting long hodographs) support a supercellular storm mode with any convection that is also to deepen and persist. Large hail and damaging gusts would be possible with any supercells. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later tonight as the surface low and any afternoon storms move eastward across southwest/south-central KS into the greater low-level moisture, and a strengthening low-level jet fosters increased warm-air advection. Hail will likely be the primary risk with these storms, but the dry subcloud layer in place could still support a few gusts to the surface as well. Overall severe coverage is still expected to remain low enough to keep 5%/Marginal probabilities. ..Mosier/Weinman.. 04/16/2025 Read more