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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0241 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 162000Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TO NORTHEAST KANSAS AND VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and strong-severe outflow gusts are possible this evening into tonight from parts of the southern and central Plains into the lower to mid Missouri Valley. ...Discussion... The forecast is on track, and no change is needed to the previous outlook. ..Smith.. 04/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1116 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ ...TX Panhandle to northeast KS and vicinity through tonight... Upper ridging that currently extends from the southern Plains into eastern Manitoba/northwest Ontario is forecast to shift eastward throughout the period. This eastward shift will occur as a shortwave trough drops south-southeastward through the Pacific Northwest/northern Rockies, phasing with the upper low off the southern/central CA Coast as it does. This evolution will result in strengthening southwesterly flow aloft from the Southwest into the central Plains, which in turn will foster a deepening lee surface trough across the High Plains and eventual surface cyclogenesis over the central High Plains. Moisture return will also increase across the southern Plains, with upper 50s/low 60s dewpoints likely across much of OK by this evening. Some thunderstorm development could occur during the late afternoon/early evening where the western edge of this moisture interacts with a dryline that extends south from the developing central High Plains surface low. Convergence along this boundary will be modest and convective initiation remains uncertain given the warm mid-level temperatures and resultant capping. Even so, an isolated storm or two appears possible from southwest KS into the eastern TX Panhandle. Strong mid-level flow (and resulting long hodographs) support a supercellular storm mode with any convection that is also to deepen and persist. Large hail and damaging gusts would be possible with any supercells. Higher thunderstorm coverage is anticipated later tonight as the surface low and any afternoon storms move eastward across southwest/south-central KS into the greater low-level moisture, and a strengthening low-level jet fosters increased warm-air advection. Hail will likely be the primary risk with these storms, but the dry subcloud layer in place could still support a few gusts to the surface as well. Overall severe coverage is still expected to remain low enough to keep 5%/Marginal probabilities. Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... A significant fire weather threat is still expected across portions of the Southwest and central High Plains Thursday. Strong mid-level flow over a very dry boundary layer will promote southwest surface winds of 30-40 mph amid relative humidity values of 5-10 percent during the afternoon across southwestern into northeastern New Mexico. Latest model guidance and increasing ensemble probabilities of significant fire weather threat across the area prompted an southwest to northeast elongation of the Extreme highlights across New Mexico. Higher confidence exists for enhanced downslope drying and associated stronger winds via lee cyclone development for Critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado resulting in a slight northward expansion of Critical highlights into this area. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue its slow progression eastward on Thursday. Mid-level winds will increase and peak during the afternoon in New Mexico. A deep surface low will develop in eastern Colorado into western Kansas. A cold front will move southward into the central Plains by late afternoon. ...New Mexico... A significant fire weather event is expected across much of New Mexico. Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph appear likely, particularly in portions of central and northeastern New Mexico. Wind gusts with the mid-level jet overhead will approach 50-60 mph. ERC data shows much of this region at or above the 90th percentile due to ongoing severe drought. A swath of 5-10% RH is also probable during the afternoon. These conditions will promote extreme fire behavior should any ignitions occur. ...Southern High Plains... RH values near 10% are expected to extend into parts of eastern Colorado, western/central Kansas, and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Strong winds of 20-30 mph are also expected. The strongest winds are expected from the northwest Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into southeast Colorado and far southwest Kansas. Strong downslope winds will extend into parts of the central Front Range. Critical fire weather will occur where the strongest winds overlap with sufficiently dry fuels. The critical highlights have been kept out of parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains where greenup will mitigate fuel receptiveness. Elsewhere, elevated to critical fire weather can be expect for several hours. The northern extent of the greatest fire weather risk will be delineated by the southward moving cold front. Some areas of northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas will see elevated to briefly critical conditions before winds shift to the north and RH rises. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... A significant fire weather threat is still expected across portions of the Southwest and central High Plains Thursday. Strong mid-level flow over a very dry boundary layer will promote southwest surface winds of 30-40 mph amid relative humidity values of 5-10 percent during the afternoon across southwestern into northeastern New Mexico. Latest model guidance and increasing ensemble probabilities of significant fire weather threat across the area prompted an southwest to northeast elongation of the Extreme highlights across New Mexico. Higher confidence exists for enhanced downslope drying and associated stronger winds via lee cyclone development for Critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado resulting in a slight northward expansion of Critical highlights into this area. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue its slow progression eastward on Thursday. Mid-level winds will increase and peak during the afternoon in New Mexico. A deep surface low will develop in eastern Colorado into western Kansas. A cold front will move southward into the central Plains by late afternoon. ...New Mexico... A significant fire weather event is expected across much of New Mexico. Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph appear likely, particularly in portions of central and northeastern New Mexico. Wind gusts with the mid-level jet overhead will approach 50-60 mph. ERC data shows much of this region at or above the 90th percentile due to ongoing severe drought. A swath of 5-10% RH is also probable during the afternoon. These conditions will promote extreme fire behavior should any ignitions occur. ...Southern High Plains... RH values near 10% are expected to extend into parts of eastern Colorado, western/central Kansas, and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Strong winds of 20-30 mph are also expected. The strongest winds are expected from the northwest Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into southeast Colorado and far southwest Kansas. Strong downslope winds will extend into parts of the central Front Range. Critical fire weather will occur where the strongest winds overlap with sufficiently dry fuels. The critical highlights have been kept out of parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains where greenup will mitigate fuel receptiveness. Elsewhere, elevated to critical fire weather can be expect for several hours. The northern extent of the greatest fire weather risk will be delineated by the southward moving cold front. Some areas of northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas will see elevated to briefly critical conditions before winds shift to the north and RH rises. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... A significant fire weather threat is still expected across portions of the Southwest and central High Plains Thursday. Strong mid-level flow over a very dry boundary layer will promote southwest surface winds of 30-40 mph amid relative humidity values of 5-10 percent during the afternoon across southwestern into northeastern New Mexico. Latest model guidance and increasing ensemble probabilities of significant fire weather threat across the area prompted an southwest to northeast elongation of the Extreme highlights across New Mexico. Higher confidence exists for enhanced downslope drying and associated stronger winds via lee cyclone development for Critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado resulting in a slight northward expansion of Critical highlights into this area. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue its slow progression eastward on Thursday. Mid-level winds will increase and peak during the afternoon in New Mexico. A deep surface low will develop in eastern Colorado into western Kansas. A cold front will move southward into the central Plains by late afternoon. ...New Mexico... A significant fire weather event is expected across much of New Mexico. Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph appear likely, particularly in portions of central and northeastern New Mexico. Wind gusts with the mid-level jet overhead will approach 50-60 mph. ERC data shows much of this region at or above the 90th percentile due to ongoing severe drought. A swath of 5-10% RH is also probable during the afternoon. These conditions will promote extreme fire behavior should any ignitions occur. ...Southern High Plains... RH values near 10% are expected to extend into parts of eastern Colorado, western/central Kansas, and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Strong winds of 20-30 mph are also expected. The strongest winds are expected from the northwest Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into southeast Colorado and far southwest Kansas. Strong downslope winds will extend into parts of the central Front Range. Critical fire weather will occur where the strongest winds overlap with sufficiently dry fuels. The critical highlights have been kept out of parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains where greenup will mitigate fuel receptiveness. Elsewhere, elevated to critical fire weather can be expect for several hours. The northern extent of the greatest fire weather risk will be delineated by the southward moving cold front. Some areas of northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas will see elevated to briefly critical conditions before winds shift to the north and RH rises. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... A significant fire weather threat is still expected across portions of the Southwest and central High Plains Thursday. Strong mid-level flow over a very dry boundary layer will promote southwest surface winds of 30-40 mph amid relative humidity values of 5-10 percent during the afternoon across southwestern into northeastern New Mexico. Latest model guidance and increasing ensemble probabilities of significant fire weather threat across the area prompted an southwest to northeast elongation of the Extreme highlights across New Mexico. Higher confidence exists for enhanced downslope drying and associated stronger winds via lee cyclone development for Critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado resulting in a slight northward expansion of Critical highlights into this area. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue its slow progression eastward on Thursday. Mid-level winds will increase and peak during the afternoon in New Mexico. A deep surface low will develop in eastern Colorado into western Kansas. A cold front will move southward into the central Plains by late afternoon. ...New Mexico... A significant fire weather event is expected across much of New Mexico. Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph appear likely, particularly in portions of central and northeastern New Mexico. Wind gusts with the mid-level jet overhead will approach 50-60 mph. ERC data shows much of this region at or above the 90th percentile due to ongoing severe drought. A swath of 5-10% RH is also probable during the afternoon. These conditions will promote extreme fire behavior should any ignitions occur. ...Southern High Plains... RH values near 10% are expected to extend into parts of eastern Colorado, western/central Kansas, and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Strong winds of 20-30 mph are also expected. The strongest winds are expected from the northwest Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into southeast Colorado and far southwest Kansas. Strong downslope winds will extend into parts of the central Front Range. Critical fire weather will occur where the strongest winds overlap with sufficiently dry fuels. The critical highlights have been kept out of parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains where greenup will mitigate fuel receptiveness. Elsewhere, elevated to critical fire weather can be expect for several hours. The northern extent of the greatest fire weather risk will be delineated by the southward moving cold front. Some areas of northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas will see elevated to briefly critical conditions before winds shift to the north and RH rises. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... A significant fire weather threat is still expected across portions of the Southwest and central High Plains Thursday. Strong mid-level flow over a very dry boundary layer will promote southwest surface winds of 30-40 mph amid relative humidity values of 5-10 percent during the afternoon across southwestern into northeastern New Mexico. Latest model guidance and increasing ensemble probabilities of significant fire weather threat across the area prompted an southwest to northeast elongation of the Extreme highlights across New Mexico. Higher confidence exists for enhanced downslope drying and associated stronger winds via lee cyclone development for Critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado resulting in a slight northward expansion of Critical highlights into this area. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue its slow progression eastward on Thursday. Mid-level winds will increase and peak during the afternoon in New Mexico. A deep surface low will develop in eastern Colorado into western Kansas. A cold front will move southward into the central Plains by late afternoon. ...New Mexico... A significant fire weather event is expected across much of New Mexico. Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph appear likely, particularly in portions of central and northeastern New Mexico. Wind gusts with the mid-level jet overhead will approach 50-60 mph. ERC data shows much of this region at or above the 90th percentile due to ongoing severe drought. A swath of 5-10% RH is also probable during the afternoon. These conditions will promote extreme fire behavior should any ignitions occur. ...Southern High Plains... RH values near 10% are expected to extend into parts of eastern Colorado, western/central Kansas, and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Strong winds of 20-30 mph are also expected. The strongest winds are expected from the northwest Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into southeast Colorado and far southwest Kansas. Strong downslope winds will extend into parts of the central Front Range. Critical fire weather will occur where the strongest winds overlap with sufficiently dry fuels. The critical highlights have been kept out of parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains where greenup will mitigate fuel receptiveness. Elsewhere, elevated to critical fire weather can be expect for several hours. The northern extent of the greatest fire weather risk will be delineated by the southward moving cold front. Some areas of northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas will see elevated to briefly critical conditions before winds shift to the north and RH rises. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... A significant fire weather threat is still expected across portions of the Southwest and central High Plains Thursday. Strong mid-level flow over a very dry boundary layer will promote southwest surface winds of 30-40 mph amid relative humidity values of 5-10 percent during the afternoon across southwestern into northeastern New Mexico. Latest model guidance and increasing ensemble probabilities of significant fire weather threat across the area prompted an southwest to northeast elongation of the Extreme highlights across New Mexico. Higher confidence exists for enhanced downslope drying and associated stronger winds via lee cyclone development for Critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado resulting in a slight northward expansion of Critical highlights into this area. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue its slow progression eastward on Thursday. Mid-level winds will increase and peak during the afternoon in New Mexico. A deep surface low will develop in eastern Colorado into western Kansas. A cold front will move southward into the central Plains by late afternoon. ...New Mexico... A significant fire weather event is expected across much of New Mexico. Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph appear likely, particularly in portions of central and northeastern New Mexico. Wind gusts with the mid-level jet overhead will approach 50-60 mph. ERC data shows much of this region at or above the 90th percentile due to ongoing severe drought. A swath of 5-10% RH is also probable during the afternoon. These conditions will promote extreme fire behavior should any ignitions occur. ...Southern High Plains... RH values near 10% are expected to extend into parts of eastern Colorado, western/central Kansas, and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Strong winds of 20-30 mph are also expected. The strongest winds are expected from the northwest Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into southeast Colorado and far southwest Kansas. Strong downslope winds will extend into parts of the central Front Range. Critical fire weather will occur where the strongest winds overlap with sufficiently dry fuels. The critical highlights have been kept out of parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains where greenup will mitigate fuel receptiveness. Elsewhere, elevated to critical fire weather can be expect for several hours. The northern extent of the greatest fire weather risk will be delineated by the southward moving cold front. Some areas of northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas will see elevated to briefly critical conditions before winds shift to the north and RH rises. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... A significant fire weather threat is still expected across portions of the Southwest and central High Plains Thursday. Strong mid-level flow over a very dry boundary layer will promote southwest surface winds of 30-40 mph amid relative humidity values of 5-10 percent during the afternoon across southwestern into northeastern New Mexico. Latest model guidance and increasing ensemble probabilities of significant fire weather threat across the area prompted an southwest to northeast elongation of the Extreme highlights across New Mexico. Higher confidence exists for enhanced downslope drying and associated stronger winds via lee cyclone development for Critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado resulting in a slight northward expansion of Critical highlights into this area. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue its slow progression eastward on Thursday. Mid-level winds will increase and peak during the afternoon in New Mexico. A deep surface low will develop in eastern Colorado into western Kansas. A cold front will move southward into the central Plains by late afternoon. ...New Mexico... A significant fire weather event is expected across much of New Mexico. Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph appear likely, particularly in portions of central and northeastern New Mexico. Wind gusts with the mid-level jet overhead will approach 50-60 mph. ERC data shows much of this region at or above the 90th percentile due to ongoing severe drought. A swath of 5-10% RH is also probable during the afternoon. These conditions will promote extreme fire behavior should any ignitions occur. ...Southern High Plains... RH values near 10% are expected to extend into parts of eastern Colorado, western/central Kansas, and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Strong winds of 20-30 mph are also expected. The strongest winds are expected from the northwest Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into southeast Colorado and far southwest Kansas. Strong downslope winds will extend into parts of the central Front Range. Critical fire weather will occur where the strongest winds overlap with sufficiently dry fuels. The critical highlights have been kept out of parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains where greenup will mitigate fuel receptiveness. Elsewhere, elevated to critical fire weather can be expect for several hours. The northern extent of the greatest fire weather risk will be delineated by the southward moving cold front. Some areas of northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas will see elevated to briefly critical conditions before winds shift to the north and RH rises. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... A significant fire weather threat is still expected across portions of the Southwest and central High Plains Thursday. Strong mid-level flow over a very dry boundary layer will promote southwest surface winds of 30-40 mph amid relative humidity values of 5-10 percent during the afternoon across southwestern into northeastern New Mexico. Latest model guidance and increasing ensemble probabilities of significant fire weather threat across the area prompted an southwest to northeast elongation of the Extreme highlights across New Mexico. Higher confidence exists for enhanced downslope drying and associated stronger winds via lee cyclone development for Critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado resulting in a slight northward expansion of Critical highlights into this area. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue its slow progression eastward on Thursday. Mid-level winds will increase and peak during the afternoon in New Mexico. A deep surface low will develop in eastern Colorado into western Kansas. A cold front will move southward into the central Plains by late afternoon. ...New Mexico... A significant fire weather event is expected across much of New Mexico. Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph appear likely, particularly in portions of central and northeastern New Mexico. Wind gusts with the mid-level jet overhead will approach 50-60 mph. ERC data shows much of this region at or above the 90th percentile due to ongoing severe drought. A swath of 5-10% RH is also probable during the afternoon. These conditions will promote extreme fire behavior should any ignitions occur. ...Southern High Plains... RH values near 10% are expected to extend into parts of eastern Colorado, western/central Kansas, and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Strong winds of 20-30 mph are also expected. The strongest winds are expected from the northwest Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into southeast Colorado and far southwest Kansas. Strong downslope winds will extend into parts of the central Front Range. Critical fire weather will occur where the strongest winds overlap with sufficiently dry fuels. The critical highlights have been kept out of parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains where greenup will mitigate fuel receptiveness. Elsewhere, elevated to critical fire weather can be expect for several hours. The northern extent of the greatest fire weather risk will be delineated by the southward moving cold front. Some areas of northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas will see elevated to briefly critical conditions before winds shift to the north and RH rises. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHWESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA INTO PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... A significant fire weather threat is still expected across portions of the Southwest and central High Plains Thursday. Strong mid-level flow over a very dry boundary layer will promote southwest surface winds of 30-40 mph amid relative humidity values of 5-10 percent during the afternoon across southwestern into northeastern New Mexico. Latest model guidance and increasing ensemble probabilities of significant fire weather threat across the area prompted an southwest to northeast elongation of the Extreme highlights across New Mexico. Higher confidence exists for enhanced downslope drying and associated stronger winds via lee cyclone development for Critical fire weather conditions across southeastern Colorado resulting in a slight northward expansion of Critical highlights into this area. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/16/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0159 AM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025/ ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will continue its slow progression eastward on Thursday. Mid-level winds will increase and peak during the afternoon in New Mexico. A deep surface low will develop in eastern Colorado into western Kansas. A cold front will move southward into the central Plains by late afternoon. ...New Mexico... A significant fire weather event is expected across much of New Mexico. Strong surface winds of 25-40 mph appear likely, particularly in portions of central and northeastern New Mexico. Wind gusts with the mid-level jet overhead will approach 50-60 mph. ERC data shows much of this region at or above the 90th percentile due to ongoing severe drought. A swath of 5-10% RH is also probable during the afternoon. These conditions will promote extreme fire behavior should any ignitions occur. ...Southern High Plains... RH values near 10% are expected to extend into parts of eastern Colorado, western/central Kansas, and the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. Strong winds of 20-30 mph are also expected. The strongest winds are expected from the northwest Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles into southeast Colorado and far southwest Kansas. Strong downslope winds will extend into parts of the central Front Range. Critical fire weather will occur where the strongest winds overlap with sufficiently dry fuels. The critical highlights have been kept out of parts of the Texas Panhandle/South Plains where greenup will mitigate fuel receptiveness. Elsewhere, elevated to critical fire weather can be expect for several hours. The northern extent of the greatest fire weather risk will be delineated by the southward moving cold front. Some areas of northeast Colorado into northwest Kansas will see elevated to briefly critical conditions before winds shift to the north and RH rises. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... Within a broad open wave trough, a swath of increasing southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and extend into the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a front will extend roughly from western Oklahoma northward to Wisconsin, with a surface low tracking eastward to the Great Lakes region. A secondary area of cyclogenesis is expected to develop across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles through the period. Scattered thunderstorms development is expected along the front from the southern Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains... An area of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the northern portion of the outlook area. These will pose some lingering risk of severe hail early. Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon and evening along the cold front. This development will be delayed by a pronounced EML and MLCIN along and ahead of the boundary. As a secondary low establishes across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, thunderstorm development will likely occur along the dryline across the Southern Plains. As the cold front sags southwards and upper-level cooling and forcing overspreads the boundary, additional scattered thunderstorm development is expected to continue northward into the Great Lakes region. Shear profiles are largely boundary parallel, which would favor training and clustering of thunderstorms through time. Given broad region of favorable MLCAPE and deep layer shear, storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Early more discrete storm modes across southern Oklahoma/north Texas on the edge of a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates may promote a conditional risk of very large hail early on. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... Within a broad open wave trough, a swath of increasing southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and extend into the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a front will extend roughly from western Oklahoma northward to Wisconsin, with a surface low tracking eastward to the Great Lakes region. A secondary area of cyclogenesis is expected to develop across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles through the period. Scattered thunderstorms development is expected along the front from the southern Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains... An area of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the northern portion of the outlook area. These will pose some lingering risk of severe hail early. Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon and evening along the cold front. This development will be delayed by a pronounced EML and MLCIN along and ahead of the boundary. As a secondary low establishes across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, thunderstorm development will likely occur along the dryline across the Southern Plains. As the cold front sags southwards and upper-level cooling and forcing overspreads the boundary, additional scattered thunderstorm development is expected to continue northward into the Great Lakes region. Shear profiles are largely boundary parallel, which would favor training and clustering of thunderstorms through time. Given broad region of favorable MLCAPE and deep layer shear, storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Early more discrete storm modes across southern Oklahoma/north Texas on the edge of a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates may promote a conditional risk of very large hail early on. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... Within a broad open wave trough, a swath of increasing southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and extend into the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a front will extend roughly from western Oklahoma northward to Wisconsin, with a surface low tracking eastward to the Great Lakes region. A secondary area of cyclogenesis is expected to develop across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles through the period. Scattered thunderstorms development is expected along the front from the southern Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains... An area of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the northern portion of the outlook area. These will pose some lingering risk of severe hail early. Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon and evening along the cold front. This development will be delayed by a pronounced EML and MLCIN along and ahead of the boundary. As a secondary low establishes across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, thunderstorm development will likely occur along the dryline across the Southern Plains. As the cold front sags southwards and upper-level cooling and forcing overspreads the boundary, additional scattered thunderstorm development is expected to continue northward into the Great Lakes region. Shear profiles are largely boundary parallel, which would favor training and clustering of thunderstorms through time. Given broad region of favorable MLCAPE and deep layer shear, storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Early more discrete storm modes across southern Oklahoma/north Texas on the edge of a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates may promote a conditional risk of very large hail early on. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... Within a broad open wave trough, a swath of increasing southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and extend into the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a front will extend roughly from western Oklahoma northward to Wisconsin, with a surface low tracking eastward to the Great Lakes region. A secondary area of cyclogenesis is expected to develop across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles through the period. Scattered thunderstorms development is expected along the front from the southern Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains... An area of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the northern portion of the outlook area. These will pose some lingering risk of severe hail early. Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon and evening along the cold front. This development will be delayed by a pronounced EML and MLCIN along and ahead of the boundary. As a secondary low establishes across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, thunderstorm development will likely occur along the dryline across the Southern Plains. As the cold front sags southwards and upper-level cooling and forcing overspreads the boundary, additional scattered thunderstorm development is expected to continue northward into the Great Lakes region. Shear profiles are largely boundary parallel, which would favor training and clustering of thunderstorms through time. Given broad region of favorable MLCAPE and deep layer shear, storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Early more discrete storm modes across southern Oklahoma/north Texas on the edge of a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates may promote a conditional risk of very large hail early on. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... Within a broad open wave trough, a swath of increasing southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and extend into the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a front will extend roughly from western Oklahoma northward to Wisconsin, with a surface low tracking eastward to the Great Lakes region. A secondary area of cyclogenesis is expected to develop across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles through the period. Scattered thunderstorms development is expected along the front from the southern Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains... An area of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the northern portion of the outlook area. These will pose some lingering risk of severe hail early. Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon and evening along the cold front. This development will be delayed by a pronounced EML and MLCIN along and ahead of the boundary. As a secondary low establishes across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, thunderstorm development will likely occur along the dryline across the Southern Plains. As the cold front sags southwards and upper-level cooling and forcing overspreads the boundary, additional scattered thunderstorm development is expected to continue northward into the Great Lakes region. Shear profiles are largely boundary parallel, which would favor training and clustering of thunderstorms through time. Given broad region of favorable MLCAPE and deep layer shear, storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Early more discrete storm modes across southern Oklahoma/north Texas on the edge of a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates may promote a conditional risk of very large hail early on. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... Within a broad open wave trough, a swath of increasing southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and extend into the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a front will extend roughly from western Oklahoma northward to Wisconsin, with a surface low tracking eastward to the Great Lakes region. A secondary area of cyclogenesis is expected to develop across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles through the period. Scattered thunderstorms development is expected along the front from the southern Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains... An area of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the northern portion of the outlook area. These will pose some lingering risk of severe hail early. Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon and evening along the cold front. This development will be delayed by a pronounced EML and MLCIN along and ahead of the boundary. As a secondary low establishes across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, thunderstorm development will likely occur along the dryline across the Southern Plains. As the cold front sags southwards and upper-level cooling and forcing overspreads the boundary, additional scattered thunderstorm development is expected to continue northward into the Great Lakes region. Shear profiles are largely boundary parallel, which would favor training and clustering of thunderstorms through time. Given broad region of favorable MLCAPE and deep layer shear, storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Early more discrete storm modes across southern Oklahoma/north Texas on the edge of a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates may promote a conditional risk of very large hail early on. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... Within a broad open wave trough, a swath of increasing southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and extend into the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a front will extend roughly from western Oklahoma northward to Wisconsin, with a surface low tracking eastward to the Great Lakes region. A secondary area of cyclogenesis is expected to develop across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles through the period. Scattered thunderstorms development is expected along the front from the southern Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains... An area of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the northern portion of the outlook area. These will pose some lingering risk of severe hail early. Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon and evening along the cold front. This development will be delayed by a pronounced EML and MLCIN along and ahead of the boundary. As a secondary low establishes across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, thunderstorm development will likely occur along the dryline across the Southern Plains. As the cold front sags southwards and upper-level cooling and forcing overspreads the boundary, additional scattered thunderstorm development is expected to continue northward into the Great Lakes region. Shear profiles are largely boundary parallel, which would favor training and clustering of thunderstorms through time. Given broad region of favorable MLCAPE and deep layer shear, storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Early more discrete storm modes across southern Oklahoma/north Texas on the edge of a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates may promote a conditional risk of very large hail early on. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... Within a broad open wave trough, a swath of increasing southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and extend into the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a front will extend roughly from western Oklahoma northward to Wisconsin, with a surface low tracking eastward to the Great Lakes region. A secondary area of cyclogenesis is expected to develop across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles through the period. Scattered thunderstorms development is expected along the front from the southern Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains... An area of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the northern portion of the outlook area. These will pose some lingering risk of severe hail early. Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon and evening along the cold front. This development will be delayed by a pronounced EML and MLCIN along and ahead of the boundary. As a secondary low establishes across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, thunderstorm development will likely occur along the dryline across the Southern Plains. As the cold front sags southwards and upper-level cooling and forcing overspreads the boundary, additional scattered thunderstorm development is expected to continue northward into the Great Lakes region. Shear profiles are largely boundary parallel, which would favor training and clustering of thunderstorms through time. Given broad region of favorable MLCAPE and deep layer shear, storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Early more discrete storm modes across southern Oklahoma/north Texas on the edge of a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates may promote a conditional risk of very large hail early on. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0216 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from the central Great Lakes to the southern Great Plains, mainly during the late afternoon Friday into Friday night. ...Synopsis... Within a broad open wave trough, a swath of increasing southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the southern Rockies and extend into the southern and central Plains. At the surface, a front will extend roughly from western Oklahoma northward to Wisconsin, with a surface low tracking eastward to the Great Lakes region. A secondary area of cyclogenesis is expected to develop across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles through the period. Scattered thunderstorms development is expected along the front from the southern Great Plains to the Great Lakes region. ...Central Great Lakes to the Southern Great Plains... An area of elevated thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across the northern portion of the outlook area. These will pose some lingering risk of severe hail early. Additional thunderstorm development is expected through the afternoon and evening along the cold front. This development will be delayed by a pronounced EML and MLCIN along and ahead of the boundary. As a secondary low establishes across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles, thunderstorm development will likely occur along the dryline across the Southern Plains. As the cold front sags southwards and upper-level cooling and forcing overspreads the boundary, additional scattered thunderstorm development is expected to continue northward into the Great Lakes region. Shear profiles are largely boundary parallel, which would favor training and clustering of thunderstorms through time. Given broad region of favorable MLCAPE and deep layer shear, storms will be capable of large hail and damaging winds. Early more discrete storm modes across southern Oklahoma/north Texas on the edge of a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates may promote a conditional risk of very large hail early on. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 PM CDT Wed Apr 16 2025 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN CENTRAL PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are possible, mainly from late afternoon Thursday into the evening, across parts of the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Large to very large hail and localized damaging winds are the primary risks. ...Synopsis... A broad open wave trough will extend from the western Canada into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin on Thursday, with broad southwesterly flow extending from the Southwest through the central/northern Plains. A surface cyclone is expected to develop across western Kansas, with a diffuse frontal boundary extending southwest to northeast across the Central Plains into the Midwest. The triple point near the low/dryline/front interface is expected to be the focus point for convective development by the afternoon and evening from eastern Nebraska to Iowa and into Minnesota. ...Eastern Central Plains into the Upper Midwest... As the low develops across western Kansas late Wednesday into Thursday, southerly return flow will bring moisture northward into the central Plains. Afternoon thunderstorm development is expected as differential heating is maximized along a frontal boundary across eastern Nebraska Thursday afternoon. This region will be characterized by dew points in the 50s to 60s, with MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg by the afternoon amid a plume of steep low to mid-level lapse rates. While MLCIN is expected to increase across portions of Iowa, a corridor of open warm sector is expected to develop across eastern Nebraska where wind profiles will support supercells. These supercells may be initially surface based, capable of large hail (some very large 2"+), damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. Boundary parallel flow will likely lead to some undercutting of storms as well as storm motions that favor training cells, which will likely limit the tornado threat into the evening while potential for large hail and damaging wind continues with eastward extent. A few surface based cells may develop as far north as southwestern Minnesota. Moisture profiles are less favorable this far northward but convergence along the front/surface trough along with favorable wind profiles will support some risk for large hail, damaging wind, and perhaps a tornado. ..Thornton/Jewell.. 04/16/2025 Read more