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SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS AND MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY... The Day 2/Saturday fire-weather forecast remains on track, and only minor adjustments were made to the Critical area based on the latest high-resolution guidance. For details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0141 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... Strong westerly winds behind an eastward moving surface low over central Texas, followed by strong post-frontal winds from a secondary, southward-moving cold front moving out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, will be responsible for Critical fire-weather conditions across portions of West Texas into South-Central Texas on Saturday. ...West Texas into South-Central Texas... Prior to the arrival of a southward-moving cold front out of Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle, surface winds are expected to reach a sustained 25-30 MPH with relative humidity between 10% and 15%. While cooler and with higher relative humidity values, the post-frontal regime will also result in widespread gusty winds into the evening. Given the overall lack of recent wetting rainfall and ERC fuels guidance showing fuels at or exceeding the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles, Critical highlights have been introduced for Saturday. Elevated fire-weather highlights exist on the periphery where winds are weaker, temperatures are cooler, and relative humidity values are not as dry. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast on Sunday. A warm front will be in place across the central Gulf Coast vicinity into far southern Georgia. A weak frontal wave cyclone will undergo some deepening as it tracks east. ...Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia/North Florida... Convection should be ongoing at the start of the period near the surface low and along portions of the warm front. Some western shift in the surface low in recent guidance has been noted and low severe probabilities have been shifted westward to account for spatial uncertainty at the start of the period. Deep-layer shear will be strong, but it will also be parallel to the boundary. The degree of destabilization that will occur is also a question given the early activity expected. The overall expectation is for somewhat disorganized convection to occur along and north of the boundary with perhaps occasional intensification possible given the strong shear. South of the boundary, there will be greater potential for surface-based storms. Should enough destabilization occur, stronger clusters/isolated supercells would be possible. Low-level shear near the boundary could promote potential for a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, isolated strong/damaging wind gusts would likely be the primary hazard. ..Wendt.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast on Sunday. A warm front will be in place across the central Gulf Coast vicinity into far southern Georgia. A weak frontal wave cyclone will undergo some deepening as it tracks east. ...Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia/North Florida... Convection should be ongoing at the start of the period near the surface low and along portions of the warm front. Some western shift in the surface low in recent guidance has been noted and low severe probabilities have been shifted westward to account for spatial uncertainty at the start of the period. Deep-layer shear will be strong, but it will also be parallel to the boundary. The degree of destabilization that will occur is also a question given the early activity expected. The overall expectation is for somewhat disorganized convection to occur along and north of the boundary with perhaps occasional intensification possible given the strong shear. South of the boundary, there will be greater potential for surface-based storms. Should enough destabilization occur, stronger clusters/isolated supercells would be possible. Low-level shear near the boundary could promote potential for a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, isolated strong/damaging wind gusts would likely be the primary hazard. ..Wendt.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast on Sunday. A warm front will be in place across the central Gulf Coast vicinity into far southern Georgia. A weak frontal wave cyclone will undergo some deepening as it tracks east. ...Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia/North Florida... Convection should be ongoing at the start of the period near the surface low and along portions of the warm front. Some western shift in the surface low in recent guidance has been noted and low severe probabilities have been shifted westward to account for spatial uncertainty at the start of the period. Deep-layer shear will be strong, but it will also be parallel to the boundary. The degree of destabilization that will occur is also a question given the early activity expected. The overall expectation is for somewhat disorganized convection to occur along and north of the boundary with perhaps occasional intensification possible given the strong shear. South of the boundary, there will be greater potential for surface-based storms. Should enough destabilization occur, stronger clusters/isolated supercells would be possible. Low-level shear near the boundary could promote potential for a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, isolated strong/damaging wind gusts would likely be the primary hazard. ..Wendt.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast on Sunday. A warm front will be in place across the central Gulf Coast vicinity into far southern Georgia. A weak frontal wave cyclone will undergo some deepening as it tracks east. ...Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia/North Florida... Convection should be ongoing at the start of the period near the surface low and along portions of the warm front. Some western shift in the surface low in recent guidance has been noted and low severe probabilities have been shifted westward to account for spatial uncertainty at the start of the period. Deep-layer shear will be strong, but it will also be parallel to the boundary. The degree of destabilization that will occur is also a question given the early activity expected. The overall expectation is for somewhat disorganized convection to occur along and north of the boundary with perhaps occasional intensification possible given the strong shear. South of the boundary, there will be greater potential for surface-based storms. Should enough destabilization occur, stronger clusters/isolated supercells would be possible. Low-level shear near the boundary could promote potential for a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, isolated strong/damaging wind gusts would likely be the primary hazard. ..Wendt.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast on Sunday. A warm front will be in place across the central Gulf Coast vicinity into far southern Georgia. A weak frontal wave cyclone will undergo some deepening as it tracks east. ...Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia/North Florida... Convection should be ongoing at the start of the period near the surface low and along portions of the warm front. Some western shift in the surface low in recent guidance has been noted and low severe probabilities have been shifted westward to account for spatial uncertainty at the start of the period. Deep-layer shear will be strong, but it will also be parallel to the boundary. The degree of destabilization that will occur is also a question given the early activity expected. The overall expectation is for somewhat disorganized convection to occur along and north of the boundary with perhaps occasional intensification possible given the strong shear. South of the boundary, there will be greater potential for surface-based storms. Should enough destabilization occur, stronger clusters/isolated supercells would be possible. Low-level shear near the boundary could promote potential for a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, isolated strong/damaging wind gusts would likely be the primary hazard. ..Wendt.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast on Sunday. A warm front will be in place across the central Gulf Coast vicinity into far southern Georgia. A weak frontal wave cyclone will undergo some deepening as it tracks east. ...Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia/North Florida... Convection should be ongoing at the start of the period near the surface low and along portions of the warm front. Some western shift in the surface low in recent guidance has been noted and low severe probabilities have been shifted westward to account for spatial uncertainty at the start of the period. Deep-layer shear will be strong, but it will also be parallel to the boundary. The degree of destabilization that will occur is also a question given the early activity expected. The overall expectation is for somewhat disorganized convection to occur along and north of the boundary with perhaps occasional intensification possible given the strong shear. South of the boundary, there will be greater potential for surface-based storms. Should enough destabilization occur, stronger clusters/isolated supercells would be possible. Low-level shear near the boundary could promote potential for a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, isolated strong/damaging wind gusts would likely be the primary hazard. ..Wendt.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0116 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTH FLORIDA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...Synopsis... A compact shortwave trough will move from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Southeast on Sunday. A warm front will be in place across the central Gulf Coast vicinity into far southern Georgia. A weak frontal wave cyclone will undergo some deepening as it tracks east. ...Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia/North Florida... Convection should be ongoing at the start of the period near the surface low and along portions of the warm front. Some western shift in the surface low in recent guidance has been noted and low severe probabilities have been shifted westward to account for spatial uncertainty at the start of the period. Deep-layer shear will be strong, but it will also be parallel to the boundary. The degree of destabilization that will occur is also a question given the early activity expected. The overall expectation is for somewhat disorganized convection to occur along and north of the boundary with perhaps occasional intensification possible given the strong shear. South of the boundary, there will be greater potential for surface-based storms. Should enough destabilization occur, stronger clusters/isolated supercells would be possible. Low-level shear near the boundary could promote potential for a brief tornado or two. Otherwise, isolated strong/damaging wind gusts would likely be the primary hazard. ..Wendt.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains during the afternoon on Saturday. This feature will progress eastward into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley late Saturday into Sunday morning. A strong mid-level jet will accompany this trough. At the surface, a cold front will be draped across the Mid-South/Southeast into North Texas. A weak surface low will develop along the front in Central/East Texas and move into lower Mississippi Valley during the evening. ...North Texas... Convection will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning. Forecast soundings indicate sufficient elevated buoyancy, mid-level lapse rates, and effective shear to support large hail for an hour or two. Thereafter, buoyancy should quickly decrease. ...East Texas into lower Mississippi Valley and western Florida Panhandle... The cold front may make some southward progress early in the period, but is generally expected to stall somewhere in the Gulf Coast vicinity. This boundary will demarcate the where the greatest severe potential will be as mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are expected south of the boundary. While some convection may be ongoing along the boundary early in the period, models suggest potential for additional development by the evening as stronger mid-level ascent approaches. Areas along and south of the cold front will have the greatest potential for near-surface to surface based storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support a threat for large hail, primarily. Depending on the degree of surface-based destabilization that occurs, and isolated strong wind gusts or perhaps a tornado could also occur. Low-level wind fields will not be overly strong, but should be sufficient for those conditional risks. The overall severe threat will gradually decrease with northern extent. However, there will be some elevated buoyancy (perhaps 500-750 J/kg MUCAPE) north of the boundary along with strong deep-layer shear. Small to marginally severe hail could occur with the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains during the afternoon on Saturday. This feature will progress eastward into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley late Saturday into Sunday morning. A strong mid-level jet will accompany this trough. At the surface, a cold front will be draped across the Mid-South/Southeast into North Texas. A weak surface low will develop along the front in Central/East Texas and move into lower Mississippi Valley during the evening. ...North Texas... Convection will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning. Forecast soundings indicate sufficient elevated buoyancy, mid-level lapse rates, and effective shear to support large hail for an hour or two. Thereafter, buoyancy should quickly decrease. ...East Texas into lower Mississippi Valley and western Florida Panhandle... The cold front may make some southward progress early in the period, but is generally expected to stall somewhere in the Gulf Coast vicinity. This boundary will demarcate the where the greatest severe potential will be as mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are expected south of the boundary. While some convection may be ongoing along the boundary early in the period, models suggest potential for additional development by the evening as stronger mid-level ascent approaches. Areas along and south of the cold front will have the greatest potential for near-surface to surface based storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support a threat for large hail, primarily. Depending on the degree of surface-based destabilization that occurs, and isolated strong wind gusts or perhaps a tornado could also occur. Low-level wind fields will not be overly strong, but should be sufficient for those conditional risks. The overall severe threat will gradually decrease with northern extent. However, there will be some elevated buoyancy (perhaps 500-750 J/kg MUCAPE) north of the boundary along with strong deep-layer shear. Small to marginally severe hail could occur with the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains during the afternoon on Saturday. This feature will progress eastward into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley late Saturday into Sunday morning. A strong mid-level jet will accompany this trough. At the surface, a cold front will be draped across the Mid-South/Southeast into North Texas. A weak surface low will develop along the front in Central/East Texas and move into lower Mississippi Valley during the evening. ...North Texas... Convection will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning. Forecast soundings indicate sufficient elevated buoyancy, mid-level lapse rates, and effective shear to support large hail for an hour or two. Thereafter, buoyancy should quickly decrease. ...East Texas into lower Mississippi Valley and western Florida Panhandle... The cold front may make some southward progress early in the period, but is generally expected to stall somewhere in the Gulf Coast vicinity. This boundary will demarcate the where the greatest severe potential will be as mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are expected south of the boundary. While some convection may be ongoing along the boundary early in the period, models suggest potential for additional development by the evening as stronger mid-level ascent approaches. Areas along and south of the cold front will have the greatest potential for near-surface to surface based storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support a threat for large hail, primarily. Depending on the degree of surface-based destabilization that occurs, and isolated strong wind gusts or perhaps a tornado could also occur. Low-level wind fields will not be overly strong, but should be sufficient for those conditional risks. The overall severe threat will gradually decrease with northern extent. However, there will be some elevated buoyancy (perhaps 500-750 J/kg MUCAPE) north of the boundary along with strong deep-layer shear. Small to marginally severe hail could occur with the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains during the afternoon on Saturday. This feature will progress eastward into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley late Saturday into Sunday morning. A strong mid-level jet will accompany this trough. At the surface, a cold front will be draped across the Mid-South/Southeast into North Texas. A weak surface low will develop along the front in Central/East Texas and move into lower Mississippi Valley during the evening. ...North Texas... Convection will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning. Forecast soundings indicate sufficient elevated buoyancy, mid-level lapse rates, and effective shear to support large hail for an hour or two. Thereafter, buoyancy should quickly decrease. ...East Texas into lower Mississippi Valley and western Florida Panhandle... The cold front may make some southward progress early in the period, but is generally expected to stall somewhere in the Gulf Coast vicinity. This boundary will demarcate the where the greatest severe potential will be as mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are expected south of the boundary. While some convection may be ongoing along the boundary early in the period, models suggest potential for additional development by the evening as stronger mid-level ascent approaches. Areas along and south of the cold front will have the greatest potential for near-surface to surface based storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support a threat for large hail, primarily. Depending on the degree of surface-based destabilization that occurs, and isolated strong wind gusts or perhaps a tornado could also occur. Low-level wind fields will not be overly strong, but should be sufficient for those conditional risks. The overall severe threat will gradually decrease with northern extent. However, there will be some elevated buoyancy (perhaps 500-750 J/kg MUCAPE) north of the boundary along with strong deep-layer shear. Small to marginally severe hail could occur with the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains during the afternoon on Saturday. This feature will progress eastward into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley late Saturday into Sunday morning. A strong mid-level jet will accompany this trough. At the surface, a cold front will be draped across the Mid-South/Southeast into North Texas. A weak surface low will develop along the front in Central/East Texas and move into lower Mississippi Valley during the evening. ...North Texas... Convection will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning. Forecast soundings indicate sufficient elevated buoyancy, mid-level lapse rates, and effective shear to support large hail for an hour or two. Thereafter, buoyancy should quickly decrease. ...East Texas into lower Mississippi Valley and western Florida Panhandle... The cold front may make some southward progress early in the period, but is generally expected to stall somewhere in the Gulf Coast vicinity. This boundary will demarcate the where the greatest severe potential will be as mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are expected south of the boundary. While some convection may be ongoing along the boundary early in the period, models suggest potential for additional development by the evening as stronger mid-level ascent approaches. Areas along and south of the cold front will have the greatest potential for near-surface to surface based storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support a threat for large hail, primarily. Depending on the degree of surface-based destabilization that occurs, and isolated strong wind gusts or perhaps a tornado could also occur. Low-level wind fields will not be overly strong, but should be sufficient for those conditional risks. The overall severe threat will gradually decrease with northern extent. However, there will be some elevated buoyancy (perhaps 500-750 J/kg MUCAPE) north of the boundary along with strong deep-layer shear. Small to marginally severe hail could occur with the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains during the afternoon on Saturday. This feature will progress eastward into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley late Saturday into Sunday morning. A strong mid-level jet will accompany this trough. At the surface, a cold front will be draped across the Mid-South/Southeast into North Texas. A weak surface low will develop along the front in Central/East Texas and move into lower Mississippi Valley during the evening. ...North Texas... Convection will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning. Forecast soundings indicate sufficient elevated buoyancy, mid-level lapse rates, and effective shear to support large hail for an hour or two. Thereafter, buoyancy should quickly decrease. ...East Texas into lower Mississippi Valley and western Florida Panhandle... The cold front may make some southward progress early in the period, but is generally expected to stall somewhere in the Gulf Coast vicinity. This boundary will demarcate the where the greatest severe potential will be as mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are expected south of the boundary. While some convection may be ongoing along the boundary early in the period, models suggest potential for additional development by the evening as stronger mid-level ascent approaches. Areas along and south of the cold front will have the greatest potential for near-surface to surface based storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support a threat for large hail, primarily. Depending on the degree of surface-based destabilization that occurs, and isolated strong wind gusts or perhaps a tornado could also occur. Low-level wind fields will not be overly strong, but should be sufficient for those conditional risks. The overall severe threat will gradually decrease with northern extent. However, there will be some elevated buoyancy (perhaps 500-750 J/kg MUCAPE) north of the boundary along with strong deep-layer shear. Small to marginally severe hail could occur with the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains during the afternoon on Saturday. This feature will progress eastward into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley late Saturday into Sunday morning. A strong mid-level jet will accompany this trough. At the surface, a cold front will be draped across the Mid-South/Southeast into North Texas. A weak surface low will develop along the front in Central/East Texas and move into lower Mississippi Valley during the evening. ...North Texas... Convection will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning. Forecast soundings indicate sufficient elevated buoyancy, mid-level lapse rates, and effective shear to support large hail for an hour or two. Thereafter, buoyancy should quickly decrease. ...East Texas into lower Mississippi Valley and western Florida Panhandle... The cold front may make some southward progress early in the period, but is generally expected to stall somewhere in the Gulf Coast vicinity. This boundary will demarcate the where the greatest severe potential will be as mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are expected south of the boundary. While some convection may be ongoing along the boundary early in the period, models suggest potential for additional development by the evening as stronger mid-level ascent approaches. Areas along and south of the cold front will have the greatest potential for near-surface to surface based storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support a threat for large hail, primarily. Depending on the degree of surface-based destabilization that occurs, and isolated strong wind gusts or perhaps a tornado could also occur. Low-level wind fields will not be overly strong, but should be sufficient for those conditional risks. The overall severe threat will gradually decrease with northern extent. However, there will be some elevated buoyancy (perhaps 500-750 J/kg MUCAPE) north of the boundary along with strong deep-layer shear. Small to marginally severe hail could occur with the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1129 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST TEXAS TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... An upper-level trough will eject into the southern Plains during the afternoon on Saturday. This feature will progress eastward into parts of the lower Mississippi Valley late Saturday into Sunday morning. A strong mid-level jet will accompany this trough. At the surface, a cold front will be draped across the Mid-South/Southeast into North Texas. A weak surface low will develop along the front in Central/East Texas and move into lower Mississippi Valley during the evening. ...North Texas... Convection will likely be ongoing early Saturday morning. Forecast soundings indicate sufficient elevated buoyancy, mid-level lapse rates, and effective shear to support large hail for an hour or two. Thereafter, buoyancy should quickly decrease. ...East Texas into lower Mississippi Valley and western Florida Panhandle... The cold front may make some southward progress early in the period, but is generally expected to stall somewhere in the Gulf Coast vicinity. This boundary will demarcate the where the greatest severe potential will be as mid/upper 60s F dewpoints are expected south of the boundary. While some convection may be ongoing along the boundary early in the period, models suggest potential for additional development by the evening as stronger mid-level ascent approaches. Areas along and south of the cold front will have the greatest potential for near-surface to surface based storms. Steep mid-level lapse rates and strong deep-layer shear will support a threat for large hail, primarily. Depending on the degree of surface-based destabilization that occurs, and isolated strong wind gusts or perhaps a tornado could also occur. Low-level wind fields will not be overly strong, but should be sufficient for those conditional risks. The overall severe threat will gradually decrease with northern extent. However, there will be some elevated buoyancy (perhaps 500-750 J/kg MUCAPE) north of the boundary along with strong deep-layer shear. Small to marginally severe hail could occur with the strongest storms. ..Wendt.. 03/07/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... The Elevated area was trimmed in the TX South Plains and TX Panhandle, where recent rainfall and marginal wind/RH should limit fire-weather concerns today. Farther northeast, an Elevated area was added for portions of western OK into western north TX. Here, the latest surface observations already show 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid upper teens to lower 20s RH. Given a lack of appreciable rainfall here over the last several days, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough progressing across the Four Corners region, along with a developing surface low over west-central Texas, will translate eastward throughout today. Strong surface winds in the vicinity of the surface low and immediately following a cold front will bring Critical fire-weather conditions across much of West Texas into Southeastern New Mexico. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be present from southern and eastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle, down into the far western Edwards Plateau. ...West Texas into Far Southeastern New Mexico... Across western Texas into far southeastern New Mexico, surface winds are expected to reach as high as 30 MPH with relative humidity values dropping into the single digits. The strongest surface winds prior to the cold-frontal passage will be confined to the U.S./Mexico border, particularly over the Texas Lowland Deserts, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend, with a secondary round of post-frontal high winds reaching further eastward and northward into southern New Mexico. The post-frontal environment will be characterized by higher relative humidity values at or above 20%, but current ERC fuels guidance shows fuels at or above the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles. Given the high winds and receptive fuels, higher relative humidity values are not considered a limiting factor for Critical conditions at this time. ...Eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle... Further north into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected in both pre- and post-frontal regimes, with winds around 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values around 15%. Portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle into eastern Oklahoma will also experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, but recent wetting rainfall and current ERC fuels guidance are limiting factors for the inclusion of highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... The Elevated area was trimmed in the TX South Plains and TX Panhandle, where recent rainfall and marginal wind/RH should limit fire-weather concerns today. Farther northeast, an Elevated area was added for portions of western OK into western north TX. Here, the latest surface observations already show 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid upper teens to lower 20s RH. Given a lack of appreciable rainfall here over the last several days, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough progressing across the Four Corners region, along with a developing surface low over west-central Texas, will translate eastward throughout today. Strong surface winds in the vicinity of the surface low and immediately following a cold front will bring Critical fire-weather conditions across much of West Texas into Southeastern New Mexico. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be present from southern and eastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle, down into the far western Edwards Plateau. ...West Texas into Far Southeastern New Mexico... Across western Texas into far southeastern New Mexico, surface winds are expected to reach as high as 30 MPH with relative humidity values dropping into the single digits. The strongest surface winds prior to the cold-frontal passage will be confined to the U.S./Mexico border, particularly over the Texas Lowland Deserts, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend, with a secondary round of post-frontal high winds reaching further eastward and northward into southern New Mexico. The post-frontal environment will be characterized by higher relative humidity values at or above 20%, but current ERC fuels guidance shows fuels at or above the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles. Given the high winds and receptive fuels, higher relative humidity values are not considered a limiting factor for Critical conditions at this time. ...Eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle... Further north into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected in both pre- and post-frontal regimes, with winds around 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values around 15%. Portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle into eastern Oklahoma will also experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, but recent wetting rainfall and current ERC fuels guidance are limiting factors for the inclusion of highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... The Elevated area was trimmed in the TX South Plains and TX Panhandle, where recent rainfall and marginal wind/RH should limit fire-weather concerns today. Farther northeast, an Elevated area was added for portions of western OK into western north TX. Here, the latest surface observations already show 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid upper teens to lower 20s RH. Given a lack of appreciable rainfall here over the last several days, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough progressing across the Four Corners region, along with a developing surface low over west-central Texas, will translate eastward throughout today. Strong surface winds in the vicinity of the surface low and immediately following a cold front will bring Critical fire-weather conditions across much of West Texas into Southeastern New Mexico. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be present from southern and eastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle, down into the far western Edwards Plateau. ...West Texas into Far Southeastern New Mexico... Across western Texas into far southeastern New Mexico, surface winds are expected to reach as high as 30 MPH with relative humidity values dropping into the single digits. The strongest surface winds prior to the cold-frontal passage will be confined to the U.S./Mexico border, particularly over the Texas Lowland Deserts, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend, with a secondary round of post-frontal high winds reaching further eastward and northward into southern New Mexico. The post-frontal environment will be characterized by higher relative humidity values at or above 20%, but current ERC fuels guidance shows fuels at or above the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles. Given the high winds and receptive fuels, higher relative humidity values are not considered a limiting factor for Critical conditions at this time. ...Eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle... Further north into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected in both pre- and post-frontal regimes, with winds around 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values around 15%. Portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle into eastern Oklahoma will also experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, but recent wetting rainfall and current ERC fuels guidance are limiting factors for the inclusion of highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1100 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 071700Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR THE TEXAS TRANS-PECOS AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO... The Elevated area was trimmed in the TX South Plains and TX Panhandle, where recent rainfall and marginal wind/RH should limit fire-weather concerns today. Farther northeast, an Elevated area was added for portions of western OK into western north TX. Here, the latest surface observations already show 15-20 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds (with higher gusts) amid upper teens to lower 20s RH. Given a lack of appreciable rainfall here over the last several days, elevated fire-weather conditions are expected. For additional details, see the previous discussion below. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CST Fri Mar 07 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough progressing across the Four Corners region, along with a developing surface low over west-central Texas, will translate eastward throughout today. Strong surface winds in the vicinity of the surface low and immediately following a cold front will bring Critical fire-weather conditions across much of West Texas into Southeastern New Mexico. Elevated fire-weather conditions will be present from southern and eastern New Mexico into portions of the Texas Panhandle, down into the far western Edwards Plateau. ...West Texas into Far Southeastern New Mexico... Across western Texas into far southeastern New Mexico, surface winds are expected to reach as high as 30 MPH with relative humidity values dropping into the single digits. The strongest surface winds prior to the cold-frontal passage will be confined to the U.S./Mexico border, particularly over the Texas Lowland Deserts, Davis Mountains, and Big Bend, with a secondary round of post-frontal high winds reaching further eastward and northward into southern New Mexico. The post-frontal environment will be characterized by higher relative humidity values at or above 20%, but current ERC fuels guidance shows fuels at or above the 95th annual and seasonal percentiles. Given the high winds and receptive fuels, higher relative humidity values are not considered a limiting factor for Critical conditions at this time. ...Eastern New Mexico into the Texas Panhandle... Further north into the Texas Panhandle and eastern New Mexico, Elevated fire-weather conditions are expected in both pre- and post-frontal regimes, with winds around 15-20 MPH and relative humidity values around 15%. Portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle into eastern Oklahoma will also experience Elevated fire-weather conditions, but recent wetting rainfall and current ERC fuels guidance are limiting factors for the inclusion of highlights. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more