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SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... Widespread cirrus is evident on morning satellite across much of the southern High Plains. As temperatures warm and RH falls, critical fire conditions should develop over eastern NM and the western TX Panhandle. The widespread cloud cover may tend to limit the northern and eastern extent of the critical conditions, especially where significant precipitation fell over the last 72 hours. However, given widespread RH expected below 15% and wind exceeding 25-30 mph should support some curing of short-hour fuels. Thus, will maintain most of the critical area as is with very minor adjustments to the eastern edge of the Elevated area. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the Desert Southwest as a downstream upper trough ejects into the Atlantic today. As a result, rapid surface cyclone development should take place across the central High Plains. A dryline will mix eastward across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions conducive to dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds within the 20-30 mph range should overlap with 10-15 percent RH for several hours across central and eastern New Mexico into far western Texas, necessitating Elevated/Critical highlights. The best chance for locally Extremely Critical conditions will be over eastern New Mexico, where guidance consensus shows the best overlap of 30 mph sustained surface winds amid 10 percent RH. Here, wildfire-spread potential will be highest given critically dry fuels. Meanwhile, dry northwesterly surface winds will overspread much of the Southeast behind a departing surface cold front associated with the downstream upper trough. Across much of the Florida Peninsula, which has seen relatively little rainfall compared to points farther north, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 20-30 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. As such, Elevated highlights were introduced, though these highlights are relatively low-end in nature given modest fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... Widespread cirrus is evident on morning satellite across much of the southern High Plains. As temperatures warm and RH falls, critical fire conditions should develop over eastern NM and the western TX Panhandle. The widespread cloud cover may tend to limit the northern and eastern extent of the critical conditions, especially where significant precipitation fell over the last 72 hours. However, given widespread RH expected below 15% and wind exceeding 25-30 mph should support some curing of short-hour fuels. Thus, will maintain most of the critical area as is with very minor adjustments to the eastern edge of the Elevated area. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the Desert Southwest as a downstream upper trough ejects into the Atlantic today. As a result, rapid surface cyclone development should take place across the central High Plains. A dryline will mix eastward across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions conducive to dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds within the 20-30 mph range should overlap with 10-15 percent RH for several hours across central and eastern New Mexico into far western Texas, necessitating Elevated/Critical highlights. The best chance for locally Extremely Critical conditions will be over eastern New Mexico, where guidance consensus shows the best overlap of 30 mph sustained surface winds amid 10 percent RH. Here, wildfire-spread potential will be highest given critically dry fuels. Meanwhile, dry northwesterly surface winds will overspread much of the Southeast behind a departing surface cold front associated with the downstream upper trough. Across much of the Florida Peninsula, which has seen relatively little rainfall compared to points farther north, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 20-30 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. As such, Elevated highlights were introduced, though these highlights are relatively low-end in nature given modest fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... Widespread cirrus is evident on morning satellite across much of the southern High Plains. As temperatures warm and RH falls, critical fire conditions should develop over eastern NM and the western TX Panhandle. The widespread cloud cover may tend to limit the northern and eastern extent of the critical conditions, especially where significant precipitation fell over the last 72 hours. However, given widespread RH expected below 15% and wind exceeding 25-30 mph should support some curing of short-hour fuels. Thus, will maintain most of the critical area as is with very minor adjustments to the eastern edge of the Elevated area. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the Desert Southwest as a downstream upper trough ejects into the Atlantic today. As a result, rapid surface cyclone development should take place across the central High Plains. A dryline will mix eastward across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions conducive to dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds within the 20-30 mph range should overlap with 10-15 percent RH for several hours across central and eastern New Mexico into far western Texas, necessitating Elevated/Critical highlights. The best chance for locally Extremely Critical conditions will be over eastern New Mexico, where guidance consensus shows the best overlap of 30 mph sustained surface winds amid 10 percent RH. Here, wildfire-spread potential will be highest given critically dry fuels. Meanwhile, dry northwesterly surface winds will overspread much of the Southeast behind a departing surface cold front associated with the downstream upper trough. Across much of the Florida Peninsula, which has seen relatively little rainfall compared to points farther north, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 20-30 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. As such, Elevated highlights were introduced, though these highlights are relatively low-end in nature given modest fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... Widespread cirrus is evident on morning satellite across much of the southern High Plains. As temperatures warm and RH falls, critical fire conditions should develop over eastern NM and the western TX Panhandle. The widespread cloud cover may tend to limit the northern and eastern extent of the critical conditions, especially where significant precipitation fell over the last 72 hours. However, given widespread RH expected below 15% and wind exceeding 25-30 mph should support some curing of short-hour fuels. Thus, will maintain most of the critical area as is with very minor adjustments to the eastern edge of the Elevated area. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the Desert Southwest as a downstream upper trough ejects into the Atlantic today. As a result, rapid surface cyclone development should take place across the central High Plains. A dryline will mix eastward across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions conducive to dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds within the 20-30 mph range should overlap with 10-15 percent RH for several hours across central and eastern New Mexico into far western Texas, necessitating Elevated/Critical highlights. The best chance for locally Extremely Critical conditions will be over eastern New Mexico, where guidance consensus shows the best overlap of 30 mph sustained surface winds amid 10 percent RH. Here, wildfire-spread potential will be highest given critically dry fuels. Meanwhile, dry northwesterly surface winds will overspread much of the Southeast behind a departing surface cold front associated with the downstream upper trough. Across much of the Florida Peninsula, which has seen relatively little rainfall compared to points farther north, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 20-30 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. As such, Elevated highlights were introduced, though these highlights are relatively low-end in nature given modest fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061630Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. ..Mosier/Thornton.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid- to upper-level trough over the West Coast will gradually shift eastward into the Interior West as another large-scale trough over the East Coast pivots eastward into the western Atlantic. Surface high pressure will be centered over the central Gulf Coast today while a lee low develops over the central High Plains. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible from central CA eastward through the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Scant instability will preclude strong/severe storm development with this activity. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid- to upper-level trough over the West Coast will gradually shift eastward into the Interior West as another large-scale trough over the East Coast pivots eastward into the western Atlantic. Surface high pressure will be centered over the central Gulf Coast today while a lee low develops over the central High Plains. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible from central CA eastward through the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Scant instability will preclude strong/severe storm development with this activity. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid- to upper-level trough over the West Coast will gradually shift eastward into the Interior West as another large-scale trough over the East Coast pivots eastward into the western Atlantic. Surface high pressure will be centered over the central Gulf Coast today while a lee low develops over the central High Plains. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible from central CA eastward through the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Scant instability will preclude strong/severe storm development with this activity. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid- to upper-level trough over the West Coast will gradually shift eastward into the Interior West as another large-scale trough over the East Coast pivots eastward into the western Atlantic. Surface high pressure will be centered over the central Gulf Coast today while a lee low develops over the central High Plains. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible from central CA eastward through the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Scant instability will preclude strong/severe storm development with this activity. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid- to upper-level trough over the West Coast will gradually shift eastward into the Interior West as another large-scale trough over the East Coast pivots eastward into the western Atlantic. Surface high pressure will be centered over the central Gulf Coast today while a lee low develops over the central High Plains. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible from central CA eastward through the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Scant instability will preclude strong/severe storm development with this activity. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0646 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061300Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...Synopsis... A mid- to upper-level trough over the West Coast will gradually shift eastward into the Interior West as another large-scale trough over the East Coast pivots eastward into the western Atlantic. Surface high pressure will be centered over the central Gulf Coast today while a lee low develops over the central High Plains. Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible from central CA eastward through the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Scant instability will preclude strong/severe storm development with this activity. ..Smith/Jewell.. 03/06/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to exhibit considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving pattern across North America late this coming weekend through the middle of next week. Concerning an initial perturbation likely to be slowly progressing across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, latest model guidance now appears to maintain a less sheared/more substantive (but positively tilted) wave across the northeastern Gulf/South Atlantic Seaboard late this weekend into early next week. However, it still appears that associated frontal wave development will remain subdued, at least until it shifts offshore of the Atlantic coast, which may tend to minimize the risk for severe storms across the Southeast. Thereafter, through the middle to latter portion of next week, it appears that another notable short wave trough will emerge from the southern mid-latitude Pacific and provide support for cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by Wednesday. This may quickly be followed by a much more vigorous and amplified wave, and more prominent cyclogenesis next Thursday into Friday. However, in the wake of the lower latitude weekend trough, low-level moisture return off the Gulf may be initially limited for the trailing perturbation, and the timing of the rapidly following wave might not be optimal with regard to subsequent inland moisture return. At least some risk for organized severe convection may materialize to the east of the Rockies next Wednesday through Thursday night. However, the extent and location remain uncertain at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to exhibit considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving pattern across North America late this coming weekend through the middle of next week. Concerning an initial perturbation likely to be slowly progressing across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, latest model guidance now appears to maintain a less sheared/more substantive (but positively tilted) wave across the northeastern Gulf/South Atlantic Seaboard late this weekend into early next week. However, it still appears that associated frontal wave development will remain subdued, at least until it shifts offshore of the Atlantic coast, which may tend to minimize the risk for severe storms across the Southeast. Thereafter, through the middle to latter portion of next week, it appears that another notable short wave trough will emerge from the southern mid-latitude Pacific and provide support for cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by Wednesday. This may quickly be followed by a much more vigorous and amplified wave, and more prominent cyclogenesis next Thursday into Friday. However, in the wake of the lower latitude weekend trough, low-level moisture return off the Gulf may be initially limited for the trailing perturbation, and the timing of the rapidly following wave might not be optimal with regard to subsequent inland moisture return. At least some risk for organized severe convection may materialize to the east of the Rockies next Wednesday through Thursday night. However, the extent and location remain uncertain at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 091200Z - 141200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to exhibit considerable spread concerning short wave developments within the evolving pattern across North America late this coming weekend through the middle of next week. Concerning an initial perturbation likely to be slowly progressing across the southern Great Plains at the outset of the period, latest model guidance now appears to maintain a less sheared/more substantive (but positively tilted) wave across the northeastern Gulf/South Atlantic Seaboard late this weekend into early next week. However, it still appears that associated frontal wave development will remain subdued, at least until it shifts offshore of the Atlantic coast, which may tend to minimize the risk for severe storms across the Southeast. Thereafter, through the middle to latter portion of next week, it appears that another notable short wave trough will emerge from the southern mid-latitude Pacific and provide support for cyclogenesis to the lee of the southern Rockies by Wednesday. This may quickly be followed by a much more vigorous and amplified wave, and more prominent cyclogenesis next Thursday into Friday. However, in the wake of the lower latitude weekend trough, low-level moisture return off the Gulf may be initially limited for the trailing perturbation, and the timing of the rapidly following wave might not be optimal with regard to subsequent inland moisture return. At least some risk for organized severe convection may materialize to the east of the Rockies next Wednesday through Thursday night. However, the extent and location remain uncertain at this time. Read more