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SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0207 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOWARD THE OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis... An upper trough will move eastward across Ontario and Quebec, deepening all the while. Meanwhile, a southern-stream low/trough will move from AZ/NM into the southern Plains. This system will take on a negative tilt into Sunday morning. At the surface, a front will stall from PA westward to the middle MS Valley, and southwestward into northwest TX. Upper 50s F to lower 60s F dewpoints will be common along and south of this boundary, with the most substantial instability developing from west-central TX into OK. Winds around 850 mb will initially be out of the southwest across the entire warm sector, but backing and strengthening will occur over the southern Plains late as the upper trough approaches. At that time, a cold front will further increase lift over TX and OK. ...From parts of OK across MO/IL/IN/OH/PA... Substantial rain and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing early on Saturday north of the stationary front and aided by theta-e advection just off the surface with 30+ kt southwest 850 mb winds. While the low-level lapse rates will initially be poor, sufficient elevated instability combined with strong deep-layer shear may support marginal hail during the day. Indications are that heating will be most prominent from the central Appalachians into parts of the upper OH Valley and into PA, and a few diurnally driven cells may produce marginal hail over OH and PA. ...TX/OK into the Ozarks... Scattered storms may redevelop from northern TX into OK during the day, as low-level moisture advection is maintained across the warm sector and north of the boundary. Lapse rates will likely be poor due to extensive clouds and persistent showers/storms. Later in the day, strong heating over southwest TX and lift near the cold front should allow for new development over west-central TX during the late afternoon, with increasing storm coverage as the low-level jet increases through the night. A few supercells may develop in this region, producing large hail. The front may tend to undercut the activity, but a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. Farther north, batches of elevated storms will spread out of TX and into OK, with both periodic hail and heavy rain threat (see WPC Day 3 Excessive Rainfall Product). ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of strong southwest winds aloft will stretch from Baja CA to the Great Lakes, with an upper trough extending from Manitoba into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, upper ridging will occur over the eastern states, with a high over the Gulf Of America. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the east, with southeast flow around the high bringing moisture off the Gulf and into southern Plains and Midwest. This moistening will occur ahead of a cold front, stretching roughly from southern WI into central MO and OK at 00Z. This front will gradually progress south and east, and will be the primary focus for scattered severe storms on Friday. ...Lower MO Valley into OK and TX... Strong surface heating will occur over TX and into western OK Friday afternoon, as mid 60s F dewpoints surge northward toward the approaching cold front. This front will be near I-40 at 00Z, with clusters of severe storms likely developing in the heated air from western OK into northwest TX. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg is possible, and wind profiles south of the cold front will favor supercells. Initial development may produce a couple tornadoes prior to the cold front undercutting the storms as they progress east/northeastward across OK. Very large hail will be possible on both side of the front as hodographs will be elongated and primarily front-parallel. Farther northeast into KS and MO, additional lift via warm advection late in the day and into the evening will also support clusters of severe storms, possibly elevated but also with hail and localized wind potential. ...Upper Great Lakes southward into the mid MO Valley... Strong warm advection will result in elevated thunderstorms by midday over parts of WI and into northern/Upper MI, with sufficient instability to support an elevated marginal hail risk. Farther south, late afternoon development is likely along the front from southern WI to the IA/IL border area and into MO, aided by daytime heating. Though capped, lift along the boundary should instigate scattered cells near 00Z, with isolated supercells tracking across IL, IN, and perhaps southern MI and northwest OH. Winds just off the surface will be quite strong at over 50 kt, aiding wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out across this region, and scattered hail is likely as well. ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of strong southwest winds aloft will stretch from Baja CA to the Great Lakes, with an upper trough extending from Manitoba into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, upper ridging will occur over the eastern states, with a high over the Gulf Of America. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the east, with southeast flow around the high bringing moisture off the Gulf and into southern Plains and Midwest. This moistening will occur ahead of a cold front, stretching roughly from southern WI into central MO and OK at 00Z. This front will gradually progress south and east, and will be the primary focus for scattered severe storms on Friday. ...Lower MO Valley into OK and TX... Strong surface heating will occur over TX and into western OK Friday afternoon, as mid 60s F dewpoints surge northward toward the approaching cold front. This front will be near I-40 at 00Z, with clusters of severe storms likely developing in the heated air from western OK into northwest TX. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg is possible, and wind profiles south of the cold front will favor supercells. Initial development may produce a couple tornadoes prior to the cold front undercutting the storms as they progress east/northeastward across OK. Very large hail will be possible on both side of the front as hodographs will be elongated and primarily front-parallel. Farther northeast into KS and MO, additional lift via warm advection late in the day and into the evening will also support clusters of severe storms, possibly elevated but also with hail and localized wind potential. ...Upper Great Lakes southward into the mid MO Valley... Strong warm advection will result in elevated thunderstorms by midday over parts of WI and into northern/Upper MI, with sufficient instability to support an elevated marginal hail risk. Farther south, late afternoon development is likely along the front from southern WI to the IA/IL border area and into MO, aided by daytime heating. Though capped, lift along the boundary should instigate scattered cells near 00Z, with isolated supercells tracking across IL, IN, and perhaps southern MI and northwest OH. Winds just off the surface will be quite strong at over 50 kt, aiding wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out across this region, and scattered hail is likely as well. ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of strong southwest winds aloft will stretch from Baja CA to the Great Lakes, with an upper trough extending from Manitoba into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, upper ridging will occur over the eastern states, with a high over the Gulf Of America. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the east, with southeast flow around the high bringing moisture off the Gulf and into southern Plains and Midwest. This moistening will occur ahead of a cold front, stretching roughly from southern WI into central MO and OK at 00Z. This front will gradually progress south and east, and will be the primary focus for scattered severe storms on Friday. ...Lower MO Valley into OK and TX... Strong surface heating will occur over TX and into western OK Friday afternoon, as mid 60s F dewpoints surge northward toward the approaching cold front. This front will be near I-40 at 00Z, with clusters of severe storms likely developing in the heated air from western OK into northwest TX. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg is possible, and wind profiles south of the cold front will favor supercells. Initial development may produce a couple tornadoes prior to the cold front undercutting the storms as they progress east/northeastward across OK. Very large hail will be possible on both side of the front as hodographs will be elongated and primarily front-parallel. Farther northeast into KS and MO, additional lift via warm advection late in the day and into the evening will also support clusters of severe storms, possibly elevated but also with hail and localized wind potential. ...Upper Great Lakes southward into the mid MO Valley... Strong warm advection will result in elevated thunderstorms by midday over parts of WI and into northern/Upper MI, with sufficient instability to support an elevated marginal hail risk. Farther south, late afternoon development is likely along the front from southern WI to the IA/IL border area and into MO, aided by daytime heating. Though capped, lift along the boundary should instigate scattered cells near 00Z, with isolated supercells tracking across IL, IN, and perhaps southern MI and northwest OH. Winds just off the surface will be quite strong at over 50 kt, aiding wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out across this region, and scattered hail is likely as well. ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of strong southwest winds aloft will stretch from Baja CA to the Great Lakes, with an upper trough extending from Manitoba into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, upper ridging will occur over the eastern states, with a high over the Gulf Of America. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the east, with southeast flow around the high bringing moisture off the Gulf and into southern Plains and Midwest. This moistening will occur ahead of a cold front, stretching roughly from southern WI into central MO and OK at 00Z. This front will gradually progress south and east, and will be the primary focus for scattered severe storms on Friday. ...Lower MO Valley into OK and TX... Strong surface heating will occur over TX and into western OK Friday afternoon, as mid 60s F dewpoints surge northward toward the approaching cold front. This front will be near I-40 at 00Z, with clusters of severe storms likely developing in the heated air from western OK into northwest TX. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg is possible, and wind profiles south of the cold front will favor supercells. Initial development may produce a couple tornadoes prior to the cold front undercutting the storms as they progress east/northeastward across OK. Very large hail will be possible on both side of the front as hodographs will be elongated and primarily front-parallel. Farther northeast into KS and MO, additional lift via warm advection late in the day and into the evening will also support clusters of severe storms, possibly elevated but also with hail and localized wind potential. ...Upper Great Lakes southward into the mid MO Valley... Strong warm advection will result in elevated thunderstorms by midday over parts of WI and into northern/Upper MI, with sufficient instability to support an elevated marginal hail risk. Farther south, late afternoon development is likely along the front from southern WI to the IA/IL border area and into MO, aided by daytime heating. Though capped, lift along the boundary should instigate scattered cells near 00Z, with isolated supercells tracking across IL, IN, and perhaps southern MI and northwest OH. Winds just off the surface will be quite strong at over 50 kt, aiding wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out across this region, and scattered hail is likely as well. ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of strong southwest winds aloft will stretch from Baja CA to the Great Lakes, with an upper trough extending from Manitoba into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, upper ridging will occur over the eastern states, with a high over the Gulf Of America. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the east, with southeast flow around the high bringing moisture off the Gulf and into southern Plains and Midwest. This moistening will occur ahead of a cold front, stretching roughly from southern WI into central MO and OK at 00Z. This front will gradually progress south and east, and will be the primary focus for scattered severe storms on Friday. ...Lower MO Valley into OK and TX... Strong surface heating will occur over TX and into western OK Friday afternoon, as mid 60s F dewpoints surge northward toward the approaching cold front. This front will be near I-40 at 00Z, with clusters of severe storms likely developing in the heated air from western OK into northwest TX. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg is possible, and wind profiles south of the cold front will favor supercells. Initial development may produce a couple tornadoes prior to the cold front undercutting the storms as they progress east/northeastward across OK. Very large hail will be possible on both side of the front as hodographs will be elongated and primarily front-parallel. Farther northeast into KS and MO, additional lift via warm advection late in the day and into the evening will also support clusters of severe storms, possibly elevated but also with hail and localized wind potential. ...Upper Great Lakes southward into the mid MO Valley... Strong warm advection will result in elevated thunderstorms by midday over parts of WI and into northern/Upper MI, with sufficient instability to support an elevated marginal hail risk. Farther south, late afternoon development is likely along the front from southern WI to the IA/IL border area and into MO, aided by daytime heating. Though capped, lift along the boundary should instigate scattered cells near 00Z, with isolated supercells tracking across IL, IN, and perhaps southern MI and northwest OH. Winds just off the surface will be quite strong at over 50 kt, aiding wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out across this region, and scattered hail is likely as well. ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of strong southwest winds aloft will stretch from Baja CA to the Great Lakes, with an upper trough extending from Manitoba into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, upper ridging will occur over the eastern states, with a high over the Gulf Of America. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the east, with southeast flow around the high bringing moisture off the Gulf and into southern Plains and Midwest. This moistening will occur ahead of a cold front, stretching roughly from southern WI into central MO and OK at 00Z. This front will gradually progress south and east, and will be the primary focus for scattered severe storms on Friday. ...Lower MO Valley into OK and TX... Strong surface heating will occur over TX and into western OK Friday afternoon, as mid 60s F dewpoints surge northward toward the approaching cold front. This front will be near I-40 at 00Z, with clusters of severe storms likely developing in the heated air from western OK into northwest TX. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg is possible, and wind profiles south of the cold front will favor supercells. Initial development may produce a couple tornadoes prior to the cold front undercutting the storms as they progress east/northeastward across OK. Very large hail will be possible on both side of the front as hodographs will be elongated and primarily front-parallel. Farther northeast into KS and MO, additional lift via warm advection late in the day and into the evening will also support clusters of severe storms, possibly elevated but also with hail and localized wind potential. ...Upper Great Lakes southward into the mid MO Valley... Strong warm advection will result in elevated thunderstorms by midday over parts of WI and into northern/Upper MI, with sufficient instability to support an elevated marginal hail risk. Farther south, late afternoon development is likely along the front from southern WI to the IA/IL border area and into MO, aided by daytime heating. Though capped, lift along the boundary should instigate scattered cells near 00Z, with isolated supercells tracking across IL, IN, and perhaps southern MI and northwest OH. Winds just off the surface will be quite strong at over 50 kt, aiding wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out across this region, and scattered hail is likely as well. ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of strong southwest winds aloft will stretch from Baja CA to the Great Lakes, with an upper trough extending from Manitoba into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, upper ridging will occur over the eastern states, with a high over the Gulf Of America. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the east, with southeast flow around the high bringing moisture off the Gulf and into southern Plains and Midwest. This moistening will occur ahead of a cold front, stretching roughly from southern WI into central MO and OK at 00Z. This front will gradually progress south and east, and will be the primary focus for scattered severe storms on Friday. ...Lower MO Valley into OK and TX... Strong surface heating will occur over TX and into western OK Friday afternoon, as mid 60s F dewpoints surge northward toward the approaching cold front. This front will be near I-40 at 00Z, with clusters of severe storms likely developing in the heated air from western OK into northwest TX. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg is possible, and wind profiles south of the cold front will favor supercells. Initial development may produce a couple tornadoes prior to the cold front undercutting the storms as they progress east/northeastward across OK. Very large hail will be possible on both side of the front as hodographs will be elongated and primarily front-parallel. Farther northeast into KS and MO, additional lift via warm advection late in the day and into the evening will also support clusters of severe storms, possibly elevated but also with hail and localized wind potential. ...Upper Great Lakes southward into the mid MO Valley... Strong warm advection will result in elevated thunderstorms by midday over parts of WI and into northern/Upper MI, with sufficient instability to support an elevated marginal hail risk. Farther south, late afternoon development is likely along the front from southern WI to the IA/IL border area and into MO, aided by daytime heating. Though capped, lift along the boundary should instigate scattered cells near 00Z, with isolated supercells tracking across IL, IN, and perhaps southern MI and northwest OH. Winds just off the surface will be quite strong at over 50 kt, aiding wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out across this region, and scattered hail is likely as well. ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of strong southwest winds aloft will stretch from Baja CA to the Great Lakes, with an upper trough extending from Manitoba into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, upper ridging will occur over the eastern states, with a high over the Gulf Of America. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the east, with southeast flow around the high bringing moisture off the Gulf and into southern Plains and Midwest. This moistening will occur ahead of a cold front, stretching roughly from southern WI into central MO and OK at 00Z. This front will gradually progress south and east, and will be the primary focus for scattered severe storms on Friday. ...Lower MO Valley into OK and TX... Strong surface heating will occur over TX and into western OK Friday afternoon, as mid 60s F dewpoints surge northward toward the approaching cold front. This front will be near I-40 at 00Z, with clusters of severe storms likely developing in the heated air from western OK into northwest TX. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg is possible, and wind profiles south of the cold front will favor supercells. Initial development may produce a couple tornadoes prior to the cold front undercutting the storms as they progress east/northeastward across OK. Very large hail will be possible on both side of the front as hodographs will be elongated and primarily front-parallel. Farther northeast into KS and MO, additional lift via warm advection late in the day and into the evening will also support clusters of severe storms, possibly elevated but also with hail and localized wind potential. ...Upper Great Lakes southward into the mid MO Valley... Strong warm advection will result in elevated thunderstorms by midday over parts of WI and into northern/Upper MI, with sufficient instability to support an elevated marginal hail risk. Farther south, late afternoon development is likely along the front from southern WI to the IA/IL border area and into MO, aided by daytime heating. Though capped, lift along the boundary should instigate scattered cells near 00Z, with isolated supercells tracking across IL, IN, and perhaps southern MI and northwest OH. Winds just off the surface will be quite strong at over 50 kt, aiding wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out across this region, and scattered hail is likely as well. ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of strong southwest winds aloft will stretch from Baja CA to the Great Lakes, with an upper trough extending from Manitoba into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, upper ridging will occur over the eastern states, with a high over the Gulf Of America. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the east, with southeast flow around the high bringing moisture off the Gulf and into southern Plains and Midwest. This moistening will occur ahead of a cold front, stretching roughly from southern WI into central MO and OK at 00Z. This front will gradually progress south and east, and will be the primary focus for scattered severe storms on Friday. ...Lower MO Valley into OK and TX... Strong surface heating will occur over TX and into western OK Friday afternoon, as mid 60s F dewpoints surge northward toward the approaching cold front. This front will be near I-40 at 00Z, with clusters of severe storms likely developing in the heated air from western OK into northwest TX. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg is possible, and wind profiles south of the cold front will favor supercells. Initial development may produce a couple tornadoes prior to the cold front undercutting the storms as they progress east/northeastward across OK. Very large hail will be possible on both side of the front as hodographs will be elongated and primarily front-parallel. Farther northeast into KS and MO, additional lift via warm advection late in the day and into the evening will also support clusters of severe storms, possibly elevated but also with hail and localized wind potential. ...Upper Great Lakes southward into the mid MO Valley... Strong warm advection will result in elevated thunderstorms by midday over parts of WI and into northern/Upper MI, with sufficient instability to support an elevated marginal hail risk. Farther south, late afternoon development is likely along the front from southern WI to the IA/IL border area and into MO, aided by daytime heating. Though capped, lift along the boundary should instigate scattered cells near 00Z, with isolated supercells tracking across IL, IN, and perhaps southern MI and northwest OH. Winds just off the surface will be quite strong at over 50 kt, aiding wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out across this region, and scattered hail is likely as well. ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of strong southwest winds aloft will stretch from Baja CA to the Great Lakes, with an upper trough extending from Manitoba into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, upper ridging will occur over the eastern states, with a high over the Gulf Of America. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the east, with southeast flow around the high bringing moisture off the Gulf and into southern Plains and Midwest. This moistening will occur ahead of a cold front, stretching roughly from southern WI into central MO and OK at 00Z. This front will gradually progress south and east, and will be the primary focus for scattered severe storms on Friday. ...Lower MO Valley into OK and TX... Strong surface heating will occur over TX and into western OK Friday afternoon, as mid 60s F dewpoints surge northward toward the approaching cold front. This front will be near I-40 at 00Z, with clusters of severe storms likely developing in the heated air from western OK into northwest TX. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg is possible, and wind profiles south of the cold front will favor supercells. Initial development may produce a couple tornadoes prior to the cold front undercutting the storms as they progress east/northeastward across OK. Very large hail will be possible on both side of the front as hodographs will be elongated and primarily front-parallel. Farther northeast into KS and MO, additional lift via warm advection late in the day and into the evening will also support clusters of severe storms, possibly elevated but also with hail and localized wind potential. ...Upper Great Lakes southward into the mid MO Valley... Strong warm advection will result in elevated thunderstorms by midday over parts of WI and into northern/Upper MI, with sufficient instability to support an elevated marginal hail risk. Farther south, late afternoon development is likely along the front from southern WI to the IA/IL border area and into MO, aided by daytime heating. Though capped, lift along the boundary should instigate scattered cells near 00Z, with isolated supercells tracking across IL, IN, and perhaps southern MI and northwest OH. Winds just off the surface will be quite strong at over 50 kt, aiding wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out across this region, and scattered hail is likely as well. ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of strong southwest winds aloft will stretch from Baja CA to the Great Lakes, with an upper trough extending from Manitoba into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, upper ridging will occur over the eastern states, with a high over the Gulf Of America. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the east, with southeast flow around the high bringing moisture off the Gulf and into southern Plains and Midwest. This moistening will occur ahead of a cold front, stretching roughly from southern WI into central MO and OK at 00Z. This front will gradually progress south and east, and will be the primary focus for scattered severe storms on Friday. ...Lower MO Valley into OK and TX... Strong surface heating will occur over TX and into western OK Friday afternoon, as mid 60s F dewpoints surge northward toward the approaching cold front. This front will be near I-40 at 00Z, with clusters of severe storms likely developing in the heated air from western OK into northwest TX. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg is possible, and wind profiles south of the cold front will favor supercells. Initial development may produce a couple tornadoes prior to the cold front undercutting the storms as they progress east/northeastward across OK. Very large hail will be possible on both side of the front as hodographs will be elongated and primarily front-parallel. Farther northeast into KS and MO, additional lift via warm advection late in the day and into the evening will also support clusters of severe storms, possibly elevated but also with hail and localized wind potential. ...Upper Great Lakes southward into the mid MO Valley... Strong warm advection will result in elevated thunderstorms by midday over parts of WI and into northern/Upper MI, with sufficient instability to support an elevated marginal hail risk. Farther south, late afternoon development is likely along the front from southern WI to the IA/IL border area and into MO, aided by daytime heating. Though capped, lift along the boundary should instigate scattered cells near 00Z, with isolated supercells tracking across IL, IN, and perhaps southern MI and northwest OH. Winds just off the surface will be quite strong at over 50 kt, aiding wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out across this region, and scattered hail is likely as well. ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of strong southwest winds aloft will stretch from Baja CA to the Great Lakes, with an upper trough extending from Manitoba into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, upper ridging will occur over the eastern states, with a high over the Gulf Of America. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the east, with southeast flow around the high bringing moisture off the Gulf and into southern Plains and Midwest. This moistening will occur ahead of a cold front, stretching roughly from southern WI into central MO and OK at 00Z. This front will gradually progress south and east, and will be the primary focus for scattered severe storms on Friday. ...Lower MO Valley into OK and TX... Strong surface heating will occur over TX and into western OK Friday afternoon, as mid 60s F dewpoints surge northward toward the approaching cold front. This front will be near I-40 at 00Z, with clusters of severe storms likely developing in the heated air from western OK into northwest TX. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg is possible, and wind profiles south of the cold front will favor supercells. Initial development may produce a couple tornadoes prior to the cold front undercutting the storms as they progress east/northeastward across OK. Very large hail will be possible on both side of the front as hodographs will be elongated and primarily front-parallel. Farther northeast into KS and MO, additional lift via warm advection late in the day and into the evening will also support clusters of severe storms, possibly elevated but also with hail and localized wind potential. ...Upper Great Lakes southward into the mid MO Valley... Strong warm advection will result in elevated thunderstorms by midday over parts of WI and into northern/Upper MI, with sufficient instability to support an elevated marginal hail risk. Farther south, late afternoon development is likely along the front from southern WI to the IA/IL border area and into MO, aided by daytime heating. Though capped, lift along the boundary should instigate scattered cells near 00Z, with isolated supercells tracking across IL, IN, and perhaps southern MI and northwest OH. Winds just off the surface will be quite strong at over 50 kt, aiding wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out across this region, and scattered hail is likely as well. ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of strong southwest winds aloft will stretch from Baja CA to the Great Lakes, with an upper trough extending from Manitoba into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, upper ridging will occur over the eastern states, with a high over the Gulf Of America. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the east, with southeast flow around the high bringing moisture off the Gulf and into southern Plains and Midwest. This moistening will occur ahead of a cold front, stretching roughly from southern WI into central MO and OK at 00Z. This front will gradually progress south and east, and will be the primary focus for scattered severe storms on Friday. ...Lower MO Valley into OK and TX... Strong surface heating will occur over TX and into western OK Friday afternoon, as mid 60s F dewpoints surge northward toward the approaching cold front. This front will be near I-40 at 00Z, with clusters of severe storms likely developing in the heated air from western OK into northwest TX. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg is possible, and wind profiles south of the cold front will favor supercells. Initial development may produce a couple tornadoes prior to the cold front undercutting the storms as they progress east/northeastward across OK. Very large hail will be possible on both side of the front as hodographs will be elongated and primarily front-parallel. Farther northeast into KS and MO, additional lift via warm advection late in the day and into the evening will also support clusters of severe storms, possibly elevated but also with hail and localized wind potential. ...Upper Great Lakes southward into the mid MO Valley... Strong warm advection will result in elevated thunderstorms by midday over parts of WI and into northern/Upper MI, with sufficient instability to support an elevated marginal hail risk. Farther south, late afternoon development is likely along the front from southern WI to the IA/IL border area and into MO, aided by daytime heating. Though capped, lift along the boundary should instigate scattered cells near 00Z, with isolated supercells tracking across IL, IN, and perhaps southern MI and northwest OH. Winds just off the surface will be quite strong at over 50 kt, aiding wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out across this region, and scattered hail is likely as well. ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards. ...Synopsis... A broad belt of strong southwest winds aloft will stretch from Baja CA to the Great Lakes, with an upper trough extending from Manitoba into the Great Basin. Meanwhile, upper ridging will occur over the eastern states, with a high over the Gulf Of America. At the surface, a large area of high pressure will exist over the east, with southeast flow around the high bringing moisture off the Gulf and into southern Plains and Midwest. This moistening will occur ahead of a cold front, stretching roughly from southern WI into central MO and OK at 00Z. This front will gradually progress south and east, and will be the primary focus for scattered severe storms on Friday. ...Lower MO Valley into OK and TX... Strong surface heating will occur over TX and into western OK Friday afternoon, as mid 60s F dewpoints surge northward toward the approaching cold front. This front will be near I-40 at 00Z, with clusters of severe storms likely developing in the heated air from western OK into northwest TX. MLCAPE over 2500 J/kg is possible, and wind profiles south of the cold front will favor supercells. Initial development may produce a couple tornadoes prior to the cold front undercutting the storms as they progress east/northeastward across OK. Very large hail will be possible on both side of the front as hodographs will be elongated and primarily front-parallel. Farther northeast into KS and MO, additional lift via warm advection late in the day and into the evening will also support clusters of severe storms, possibly elevated but also with hail and localized wind potential. ...Upper Great Lakes southward into the mid MO Valley... Strong warm advection will result in elevated thunderstorms by midday over parts of WI and into northern/Upper MI, with sufficient instability to support an elevated marginal hail risk. Farther south, late afternoon development is likely along the front from southern WI to the IA/IL border area and into MO, aided by daytime heating. Though capped, lift along the boundary should instigate scattered cells near 00Z, with isolated supercells tracking across IL, IN, and perhaps southern MI and northwest OH. Winds just off the surface will be quite strong at over 50 kt, aiding wind gusts. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out across this region, and scattered hail is likely as well. ..Jewell.. 04/17/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance consensus and surface observations suggest corridor of Extreme fire weather conditions should extend from southwestern and central New Mexico into far western portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon. In addition, Critical highlights were extended slightly eastward into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. An accelerating mid-level jet over the Southwest and deepening lee surface trough will support southwest winds of 30-40 mph across southwestern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will reinforce widespread relative humidity of 10 percent or less across much of New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. This weather environment will allow for Critical to Extreme fire weather conditions supportive of rapid fire spread in dry fuels. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level jet will overspread New Mexico during the afternoon today. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. A broad region of high-end fire weather will be present across parts of the Southwest and the adjacent southern/central High Plains. ...New Mexico... The most significant fire weather concerns are expected from southwest into northeast New Mexico. Here, the mid-level jet will be quite favorably timed with peak heating. Sustained wind of 30-40 mph and gusts of 55-65 mph appear probable during the afternoon. RH of 5-10% can be expected. With ERCs near or above the 90th percentile (with some around the 97th), significant fire spread can be expected with any ignitions. ...Southern High Plains... While some transitioning/greening fuels complicate the forecast, the still intense meteorological conditions will drive critical fire weather for parts of West Texas. Areas of the eastern Panhandle and South Plains (areas primarily east of the Caprock) will see similarly dry and windy conditions, but less receptive fuels (per TICC and other local fuel information) will keep fire weather elevated. RH of 5-15% with winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The highest wind speeds will be near the New Mexico border into the northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Central High Plains... With the deepening surface low and some portion of the mid-level jet impacting the region, westerly downslope winds in Colorado and southwesterly winds in Kansas will promote elevated to critical fire weather. Strong winds (20-30 mph) are expected for much of the Front Range into southwest Kansas. RH will be similarly low as farther south/west -- values ranging from 5-15%. The fire weather threat will extend as far north as the cold front. A few locations could see elevated to briefly critical conditions prior to winds shifting to the north and RH quickly rising. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance consensus and surface observations suggest corridor of Extreme fire weather conditions should extend from southwestern and central New Mexico into far western portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon. In addition, Critical highlights were extended slightly eastward into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. An accelerating mid-level jet over the Southwest and deepening lee surface trough will support southwest winds of 30-40 mph across southwestern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will reinforce widespread relative humidity of 10 percent or less across much of New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. This weather environment will allow for Critical to Extreme fire weather conditions supportive of rapid fire spread in dry fuels. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level jet will overspread New Mexico during the afternoon today. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. A broad region of high-end fire weather will be present across parts of the Southwest and the adjacent southern/central High Plains. ...New Mexico... The most significant fire weather concerns are expected from southwest into northeast New Mexico. Here, the mid-level jet will be quite favorably timed with peak heating. Sustained wind of 30-40 mph and gusts of 55-65 mph appear probable during the afternoon. RH of 5-10% can be expected. With ERCs near or above the 90th percentile (with some around the 97th), significant fire spread can be expected with any ignitions. ...Southern High Plains... While some transitioning/greening fuels complicate the forecast, the still intense meteorological conditions will drive critical fire weather for parts of West Texas. Areas of the eastern Panhandle and South Plains (areas primarily east of the Caprock) will see similarly dry and windy conditions, but less receptive fuels (per TICC and other local fuel information) will keep fire weather elevated. RH of 5-15% with winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The highest wind speeds will be near the New Mexico border into the northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Central High Plains... With the deepening surface low and some portion of the mid-level jet impacting the region, westerly downslope winds in Colorado and southwesterly winds in Kansas will promote elevated to critical fire weather. Strong winds (20-30 mph) are expected for much of the Front Range into southwest Kansas. RH will be similarly low as farther south/west -- values ranging from 5-15%. The fire weather threat will extend as far north as the cold front. A few locations could see elevated to briefly critical conditions prior to winds shifting to the north and RH quickly rising. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance consensus and surface observations suggest corridor of Extreme fire weather conditions should extend from southwestern and central New Mexico into far western portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon. In addition, Critical highlights were extended slightly eastward into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. An accelerating mid-level jet over the Southwest and deepening lee surface trough will support southwest winds of 30-40 mph across southwestern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will reinforce widespread relative humidity of 10 percent or less across much of New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. This weather environment will allow for Critical to Extreme fire weather conditions supportive of rapid fire spread in dry fuels. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level jet will overspread New Mexico during the afternoon today. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. A broad region of high-end fire weather will be present across parts of the Southwest and the adjacent southern/central High Plains. ...New Mexico... The most significant fire weather concerns are expected from southwest into northeast New Mexico. Here, the mid-level jet will be quite favorably timed with peak heating. Sustained wind of 30-40 mph and gusts of 55-65 mph appear probable during the afternoon. RH of 5-10% can be expected. With ERCs near or above the 90th percentile (with some around the 97th), significant fire spread can be expected with any ignitions. ...Southern High Plains... While some transitioning/greening fuels complicate the forecast, the still intense meteorological conditions will drive critical fire weather for parts of West Texas. Areas of the eastern Panhandle and South Plains (areas primarily east of the Caprock) will see similarly dry and windy conditions, but less receptive fuels (per TICC and other local fuel information) will keep fire weather elevated. RH of 5-15% with winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The highest wind speeds will be near the New Mexico border into the northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Central High Plains... With the deepening surface low and some portion of the mid-level jet impacting the region, westerly downslope winds in Colorado and southwesterly winds in Kansas will promote elevated to critical fire weather. Strong winds (20-30 mph) are expected for much of the Front Range into southwest Kansas. RH will be similarly low as farther south/west -- values ranging from 5-15%. The fire weather threat will extend as far north as the cold front. A few locations could see elevated to briefly critical conditions prior to winds shifting to the north and RH quickly rising. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance consensus and surface observations suggest corridor of Extreme fire weather conditions should extend from southwestern and central New Mexico into far western portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon. In addition, Critical highlights were extended slightly eastward into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. An accelerating mid-level jet over the Southwest and deepening lee surface trough will support southwest winds of 30-40 mph across southwestern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will reinforce widespread relative humidity of 10 percent or less across much of New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. This weather environment will allow for Critical to Extreme fire weather conditions supportive of rapid fire spread in dry fuels. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level jet will overspread New Mexico during the afternoon today. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. A broad region of high-end fire weather will be present across parts of the Southwest and the adjacent southern/central High Plains. ...New Mexico... The most significant fire weather concerns are expected from southwest into northeast New Mexico. Here, the mid-level jet will be quite favorably timed with peak heating. Sustained wind of 30-40 mph and gusts of 55-65 mph appear probable during the afternoon. RH of 5-10% can be expected. With ERCs near or above the 90th percentile (with some around the 97th), significant fire spread can be expected with any ignitions. ...Southern High Plains... While some transitioning/greening fuels complicate the forecast, the still intense meteorological conditions will drive critical fire weather for parts of West Texas. Areas of the eastern Panhandle and South Plains (areas primarily east of the Caprock) will see similarly dry and windy conditions, but less receptive fuels (per TICC and other local fuel information) will keep fire weather elevated. RH of 5-15% with winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The highest wind speeds will be near the New Mexico border into the northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Central High Plains... With the deepening surface low and some portion of the mid-level jet impacting the region, westerly downslope winds in Colorado and southwesterly winds in Kansas will promote elevated to critical fire weather. Strong winds (20-30 mph) are expected for much of the Front Range into southwest Kansas. RH will be similarly low as farther south/west -- values ranging from 5-15%. The fire weather threat will extend as far north as the cold front. A few locations could see elevated to briefly critical conditions prior to winds shifting to the north and RH quickly rising. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1149 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 171700Z - 181200Z ...EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF NEW MEXICO INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... Latest model guidance consensus and surface observations suggest corridor of Extreme fire weather conditions should extend from southwestern and central New Mexico into far western portions of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles this afternoon. In addition, Critical highlights were extended slightly eastward into western Oklahoma and northwest Texas. An accelerating mid-level jet over the Southwest and deepening lee surface trough will support southwest winds of 30-40 mph across southwestern New Mexico into the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. A dry, well-mixed boundary layer will reinforce widespread relative humidity of 10 percent or less across much of New Mexico and adjacent High Plains. This weather environment will allow for Critical to Extreme fire weather conditions supportive of rapid fire spread in dry fuels. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1255 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...Synopsis... A potent mid-level jet will overspread New Mexico during the afternoon today. A surface low will deepen near the Colorado/Kansas border. A broad region of high-end fire weather will be present across parts of the Southwest and the adjacent southern/central High Plains. ...New Mexico... The most significant fire weather concerns are expected from southwest into northeast New Mexico. Here, the mid-level jet will be quite favorably timed with peak heating. Sustained wind of 30-40 mph and gusts of 55-65 mph appear probable during the afternoon. RH of 5-10% can be expected. With ERCs near or above the 90th percentile (with some around the 97th), significant fire spread can be expected with any ignitions. ...Southern High Plains... While some transitioning/greening fuels complicate the forecast, the still intense meteorological conditions will drive critical fire weather for parts of West Texas. Areas of the eastern Panhandle and South Plains (areas primarily east of the Caprock) will see similarly dry and windy conditions, but less receptive fuels (per TICC and other local fuel information) will keep fire weather elevated. RH of 5-15% with winds of 15-25 mph are expected. The highest wind speeds will be near the New Mexico border into the northwest Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. ...Central High Plains... With the deepening surface low and some portion of the mid-level jet impacting the region, westerly downslope winds in Colorado and southwesterly winds in Kansas will promote elevated to critical fire weather. Strong winds (20-30 mph) are expected for much of the Front Range into southwest Kansas. RH will be similarly low as farther south/west -- values ranging from 5-15%. The fire weather threat will extend as far north as the cold front. A few locations could see elevated to briefly critical conditions prior to winds shifting to the north and RH quickly rising. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more