Aggregator

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough across the Desert Southwest on Day 3/Saturday will pivot through the Southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, accelerating northeastward into the Great Lakes Region by Day 5/Monday. Fire weather concerns with this feature should remain limited to far southeastern New Mexico and far western Texas ahead of the cold front on Saturday. However, uncertainty exists in timing of the cold front and westward extent of moist return flow from the Gulf. The probability for Critical fire weather conditions was left at 40 percent due to this timing uncertainty. The upper-level trough and associated precipitation across much of the eastern U.S. will mitigate fire weather concerns temporarily Day 5/Monday through Day 7/Wednesday. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals a general troughing pattern returning to the Western U.S. as early as Day 7, indicating a return to a warm and dry southwesterly flow across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains, but uncertainty is high enough to preclude adding Critical probabilities at this time. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across Florida through at least the middle of next week as a Bermuda High evolves to the east, introducing a more daily southeasterly flow into the state. Further drying of fuels are expected with much of southern Florida already above the 90th percentile range in ERC. This could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat for western Florida Peninsula into the middle of next week. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough across the Desert Southwest on Day 3/Saturday will pivot through the Southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, accelerating northeastward into the Great Lakes Region by Day 5/Monday. Fire weather concerns with this feature should remain limited to far southeastern New Mexico and far western Texas ahead of the cold front on Saturday. However, uncertainty exists in timing of the cold front and westward extent of moist return flow from the Gulf. The probability for Critical fire weather conditions was left at 40 percent due to this timing uncertainty. The upper-level trough and associated precipitation across much of the eastern U.S. will mitigate fire weather concerns temporarily Day 5/Monday through Day 7/Wednesday. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals a general troughing pattern returning to the Western U.S. as early as Day 7, indicating a return to a warm and dry southwesterly flow across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains, but uncertainty is high enough to preclude adding Critical probabilities at this time. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across Florida through at least the middle of next week as a Bermuda High evolves to the east, introducing a more daily southeasterly flow into the state. Further drying of fuels are expected with much of southern Florida already above the 90th percentile range in ERC. This could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat for western Florida Peninsula into the middle of next week. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough across the Desert Southwest on Day 3/Saturday will pivot through the Southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, accelerating northeastward into the Great Lakes Region by Day 5/Monday. Fire weather concerns with this feature should remain limited to far southeastern New Mexico and far western Texas ahead of the cold front on Saturday. However, uncertainty exists in timing of the cold front and westward extent of moist return flow from the Gulf. The probability for Critical fire weather conditions was left at 40 percent due to this timing uncertainty. The upper-level trough and associated precipitation across much of the eastern U.S. will mitigate fire weather concerns temporarily Day 5/Monday through Day 7/Wednesday. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals a general troughing pattern returning to the Western U.S. as early as Day 7, indicating a return to a warm and dry southwesterly flow across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains, but uncertainty is high enough to preclude adding Critical probabilities at this time. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across Florida through at least the middle of next week as a Bermuda High evolves to the east, introducing a more daily southeasterly flow into the state. Further drying of fuels are expected with much of southern Florida already above the 90th percentile range in ERC. This could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat for western Florida Peninsula into the middle of next week. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough across the Desert Southwest on Day 3/Saturday will pivot through the Southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, accelerating northeastward into the Great Lakes Region by Day 5/Monday. Fire weather concerns with this feature should remain limited to far southeastern New Mexico and far western Texas ahead of the cold front on Saturday. However, uncertainty exists in timing of the cold front and westward extent of moist return flow from the Gulf. The probability for Critical fire weather conditions was left at 40 percent due to this timing uncertainty. The upper-level trough and associated precipitation across much of the eastern U.S. will mitigate fire weather concerns temporarily Day 5/Monday through Day 7/Wednesday. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals a general troughing pattern returning to the Western U.S. as early as Day 7, indicating a return to a warm and dry southwesterly flow across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains, but uncertainty is high enough to preclude adding Critical probabilities at this time. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across Florida through at least the middle of next week as a Bermuda High evolves to the east, introducing a more daily southeasterly flow into the state. Further drying of fuels are expected with much of southern Florida already above the 90th percentile range in ERC. This could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat for western Florida Peninsula into the middle of next week. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough across the Desert Southwest on Day 3/Saturday will pivot through the Southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, accelerating northeastward into the Great Lakes Region by Day 5/Monday. Fire weather concerns with this feature should remain limited to far southeastern New Mexico and far western Texas ahead of the cold front on Saturday. However, uncertainty exists in timing of the cold front and westward extent of moist return flow from the Gulf. The probability for Critical fire weather conditions was left at 40 percent due to this timing uncertainty. The upper-level trough and associated precipitation across much of the eastern U.S. will mitigate fire weather concerns temporarily Day 5/Monday through Day 7/Wednesday. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals a general troughing pattern returning to the Western U.S. as early as Day 7, indicating a return to a warm and dry southwesterly flow across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains, but uncertainty is high enough to preclude adding Critical probabilities at this time. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across Florida through at least the middle of next week as a Bermuda High evolves to the east, introducing a more daily southeasterly flow into the state. Further drying of fuels are expected with much of southern Florida already above the 90th percentile range in ERC. This could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat for western Florida Peninsula into the middle of next week. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough across the Desert Southwest on Day 3/Saturday will pivot through the Southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, accelerating northeastward into the Great Lakes Region by Day 5/Monday. Fire weather concerns with this feature should remain limited to far southeastern New Mexico and far western Texas ahead of the cold front on Saturday. However, uncertainty exists in timing of the cold front and westward extent of moist return flow from the Gulf. The probability for Critical fire weather conditions was left at 40 percent due to this timing uncertainty. The upper-level trough and associated precipitation across much of the eastern U.S. will mitigate fire weather concerns temporarily Day 5/Monday through Day 7/Wednesday. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals a general troughing pattern returning to the Western U.S. as early as Day 7, indicating a return to a warm and dry southwesterly flow across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains, but uncertainty is high enough to preclude adding Critical probabilities at this time. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across Florida through at least the middle of next week as a Bermuda High evolves to the east, introducing a more daily southeasterly flow into the state. Further drying of fuels are expected with much of southern Florida already above the 90th percentile range in ERC. This could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat for western Florida Peninsula into the middle of next week. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0425 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 191200Z - 251200Z An upper-level trough across the Desert Southwest on Day 3/Saturday will pivot through the Southern Plains on Day 4/Sunday, accelerating northeastward into the Great Lakes Region by Day 5/Monday. Fire weather concerns with this feature should remain limited to far southeastern New Mexico and far western Texas ahead of the cold front on Saturday. However, uncertainty exists in timing of the cold front and westward extent of moist return flow from the Gulf. The probability for Critical fire weather conditions was left at 40 percent due to this timing uncertainty. The upper-level trough and associated precipitation across much of the eastern U.S. will mitigate fire weather concerns temporarily Day 5/Monday through Day 7/Wednesday. Ensemble cluster analysis reveals a general troughing pattern returning to the Western U.S. as early as Day 7, indicating a return to a warm and dry southwesterly flow across portions of the Desert Southwest and adjacent High Plains, but uncertainty is high enough to preclude adding Critical probabilities at this time. Very dry conditions are expected to persist across Florida through at least the middle of next week as a Bermuda High evolves to the east, introducing a more daily southeasterly flow into the state. Further drying of fuels are expected with much of southern Florida already above the 90th percentile range in ERC. This could present at least an Elevated fire weather threat for western Florida Peninsula into the middle of next week. ..Williams/Moore.. 04/17/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

WW 0140 Status Updates
STATUS FOR WATCH 0140 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET Read more

No watches are valid as of Thu Apr 17 20:16:02 UTC 2025.

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...20Z Update... Very minor changes were made to the outlook with this update. A cluster of thunderstorms is evolving immediately ahead of the surface low over southern MN, where low-level convergence is maximized amid boundary-layer heating and decreasing inhibition. Given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear (per MPX VWP), this activity should gradually intensify through the afternoon, with a risk of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. Reference MCD #458 for more information. Farther south, the latest surface observations and radar imagery depict gradually increasing boundary-layer convergence ahead of a well-defined triple point over south-central/southeast NE. While satellite imagery still suggests strong capping at the base of the EML, expectations are still for isolated/discrete storm development near the triple point in southeast NE later this afternoon into the evening. The primary concern will be large to very large hail with initially discrete supercells, with an increasing risk of damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes into this evening. For additional details, reference MCD #459. ..Weinman.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-upper flow will extend from the southern High Plains to the central Great Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream of a large-scale trough over the West. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a capped stratocumulus shield from eastern OK northward into eastern KS and the MO Valley. This low-level moisture depicted on satellite corresponds with a 10.0-11.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture will continue northward on southerly flow to the east of a weak surface wave which is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. Strong heating and continued moisture advection will result in moderate to strong destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Models continue to show initial thunderstorm development around 20z in southern MN and around 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). Model forecast soundings over southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south, greater buoyancy and elongated hodographs will be more favorable for supercells. A long-track supercell or two is forecast from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight. Large to giant hail (peak diameter 2.75 to 3.5 inches) will be possible with the more intense phase of the supercell activity. A narrow window of opportunity may exist for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. Severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before this activity wanes late this evening into the overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...20Z Update... Very minor changes were made to the outlook with this update. A cluster of thunderstorms is evolving immediately ahead of the surface low over southern MN, where low-level convergence is maximized amid boundary-layer heating and decreasing inhibition. Given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear (per MPX VWP), this activity should gradually intensify through the afternoon, with a risk of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. Reference MCD #458 for more information. Farther south, the latest surface observations and radar imagery depict gradually increasing boundary-layer convergence ahead of a well-defined triple point over south-central/southeast NE. While satellite imagery still suggests strong capping at the base of the EML, expectations are still for isolated/discrete storm development near the triple point in southeast NE later this afternoon into the evening. The primary concern will be large to very large hail with initially discrete supercells, with an increasing risk of damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes into this evening. For additional details, reference MCD #459. ..Weinman.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-upper flow will extend from the southern High Plains to the central Great Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream of a large-scale trough over the West. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a capped stratocumulus shield from eastern OK northward into eastern KS and the MO Valley. This low-level moisture depicted on satellite corresponds with a 10.0-11.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture will continue northward on southerly flow to the east of a weak surface wave which is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. Strong heating and continued moisture advection will result in moderate to strong destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Models continue to show initial thunderstorm development around 20z in southern MN and around 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). Model forecast soundings over southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south, greater buoyancy and elongated hodographs will be more favorable for supercells. A long-track supercell or two is forecast from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight. Large to giant hail (peak diameter 2.75 to 3.5 inches) will be possible with the more intense phase of the supercell activity. A narrow window of opportunity may exist for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. Severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before this activity wanes late this evening into the overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...20Z Update... Very minor changes were made to the outlook with this update. A cluster of thunderstorms is evolving immediately ahead of the surface low over southern MN, where low-level convergence is maximized amid boundary-layer heating and decreasing inhibition. Given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear (per MPX VWP), this activity should gradually intensify through the afternoon, with a risk of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. Reference MCD #458 for more information. Farther south, the latest surface observations and radar imagery depict gradually increasing boundary-layer convergence ahead of a well-defined triple point over south-central/southeast NE. While satellite imagery still suggests strong capping at the base of the EML, expectations are still for isolated/discrete storm development near the triple point in southeast NE later this afternoon into the evening. The primary concern will be large to very large hail with initially discrete supercells, with an increasing risk of damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes into this evening. For additional details, reference MCD #459. ..Weinman.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-upper flow will extend from the southern High Plains to the central Great Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream of a large-scale trough over the West. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a capped stratocumulus shield from eastern OK northward into eastern KS and the MO Valley. This low-level moisture depicted on satellite corresponds with a 10.0-11.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture will continue northward on southerly flow to the east of a weak surface wave which is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. Strong heating and continued moisture advection will result in moderate to strong destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Models continue to show initial thunderstorm development around 20z in southern MN and around 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). Model forecast soundings over southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south, greater buoyancy and elongated hodographs will be more favorable for supercells. A long-track supercell or two is forecast from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight. Large to giant hail (peak diameter 2.75 to 3.5 inches) will be possible with the more intense phase of the supercell activity. A narrow window of opportunity may exist for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. Severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before this activity wanes late this evening into the overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...20Z Update... Very minor changes were made to the outlook with this update. A cluster of thunderstorms is evolving immediately ahead of the surface low over southern MN, where low-level convergence is maximized amid boundary-layer heating and decreasing inhibition. Given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear (per MPX VWP), this activity should gradually intensify through the afternoon, with a risk of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. Reference MCD #458 for more information. Farther south, the latest surface observations and radar imagery depict gradually increasing boundary-layer convergence ahead of a well-defined triple point over south-central/southeast NE. While satellite imagery still suggests strong capping at the base of the EML, expectations are still for isolated/discrete storm development near the triple point in southeast NE later this afternoon into the evening. The primary concern will be large to very large hail with initially discrete supercells, with an increasing risk of damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes into this evening. For additional details, reference MCD #459. ..Weinman.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-upper flow will extend from the southern High Plains to the central Great Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream of a large-scale trough over the West. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a capped stratocumulus shield from eastern OK northward into eastern KS and the MO Valley. This low-level moisture depicted on satellite corresponds with a 10.0-11.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture will continue northward on southerly flow to the east of a weak surface wave which is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. Strong heating and continued moisture advection will result in moderate to strong destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Models continue to show initial thunderstorm development around 20z in southern MN and around 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). Model forecast soundings over southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south, greater buoyancy and elongated hodographs will be more favorable for supercells. A long-track supercell or two is forecast from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight. Large to giant hail (peak diameter 2.75 to 3.5 inches) will be possible with the more intense phase of the supercell activity. A narrow window of opportunity may exist for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. Severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before this activity wanes late this evening into the overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...20Z Update... Very minor changes were made to the outlook with this update. A cluster of thunderstorms is evolving immediately ahead of the surface low over southern MN, where low-level convergence is maximized amid boundary-layer heating and decreasing inhibition. Given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear (per MPX VWP), this activity should gradually intensify through the afternoon, with a risk of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. Reference MCD #458 for more information. Farther south, the latest surface observations and radar imagery depict gradually increasing boundary-layer convergence ahead of a well-defined triple point over south-central/southeast NE. While satellite imagery still suggests strong capping at the base of the EML, expectations are still for isolated/discrete storm development near the triple point in southeast NE later this afternoon into the evening. The primary concern will be large to very large hail with initially discrete supercells, with an increasing risk of damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes into this evening. For additional details, reference MCD #459. ..Weinman.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-upper flow will extend from the southern High Plains to the central Great Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream of a large-scale trough over the West. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a capped stratocumulus shield from eastern OK northward into eastern KS and the MO Valley. This low-level moisture depicted on satellite corresponds with a 10.0-11.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture will continue northward on southerly flow to the east of a weak surface wave which is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. Strong heating and continued moisture advection will result in moderate to strong destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Models continue to show initial thunderstorm development around 20z in southern MN and around 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). Model forecast soundings over southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south, greater buoyancy and elongated hodographs will be more favorable for supercells. A long-track supercell or two is forecast from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight. Large to giant hail (peak diameter 2.75 to 3.5 inches) will be possible with the more intense phase of the supercell activity. A narrow window of opportunity may exist for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. Severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before this activity wanes late this evening into the overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...20Z Update... Very minor changes were made to the outlook with this update. A cluster of thunderstorms is evolving immediately ahead of the surface low over southern MN, where low-level convergence is maximized amid boundary-layer heating and decreasing inhibition. Given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear (per MPX VWP), this activity should gradually intensify through the afternoon, with a risk of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. Reference MCD #458 for more information. Farther south, the latest surface observations and radar imagery depict gradually increasing boundary-layer convergence ahead of a well-defined triple point over south-central/southeast NE. While satellite imagery still suggests strong capping at the base of the EML, expectations are still for isolated/discrete storm development near the triple point in southeast NE later this afternoon into the evening. The primary concern will be large to very large hail with initially discrete supercells, with an increasing risk of damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes into this evening. For additional details, reference MCD #459. ..Weinman.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-upper flow will extend from the southern High Plains to the central Great Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream of a large-scale trough over the West. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a capped stratocumulus shield from eastern OK northward into eastern KS and the MO Valley. This low-level moisture depicted on satellite corresponds with a 10.0-11.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture will continue northward on southerly flow to the east of a weak surface wave which is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. Strong heating and continued moisture advection will result in moderate to strong destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Models continue to show initial thunderstorm development around 20z in southern MN and around 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). Model forecast soundings over southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south, greater buoyancy and elongated hodographs will be more favorable for supercells. A long-track supercell or two is forecast from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight. Large to giant hail (peak diameter 2.75 to 3.5 inches) will be possible with the more intense phase of the supercell activity. A narrow window of opportunity may exist for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. Severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before this activity wanes late this evening into the overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...20Z Update... Very minor changes were made to the outlook with this update. A cluster of thunderstorms is evolving immediately ahead of the surface low over southern MN, where low-level convergence is maximized amid boundary-layer heating and decreasing inhibition. Given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear (per MPX VWP), this activity should gradually intensify through the afternoon, with a risk of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. Reference MCD #458 for more information. Farther south, the latest surface observations and radar imagery depict gradually increasing boundary-layer convergence ahead of a well-defined triple point over south-central/southeast NE. While satellite imagery still suggests strong capping at the base of the EML, expectations are still for isolated/discrete storm development near the triple point in southeast NE later this afternoon into the evening. The primary concern will be large to very large hail with initially discrete supercells, with an increasing risk of damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes into this evening. For additional details, reference MCD #459. ..Weinman.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-upper flow will extend from the southern High Plains to the central Great Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream of a large-scale trough over the West. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a capped stratocumulus shield from eastern OK northward into eastern KS and the MO Valley. This low-level moisture depicted on satellite corresponds with a 10.0-11.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture will continue northward on southerly flow to the east of a weak surface wave which is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. Strong heating and continued moisture advection will result in moderate to strong destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Models continue to show initial thunderstorm development around 20z in southern MN and around 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). Model forecast soundings over southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south, greater buoyancy and elongated hodographs will be more favorable for supercells. A long-track supercell or two is forecast from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight. Large to giant hail (peak diameter 2.75 to 3.5 inches) will be possible with the more intense phase of the supercell activity. A narrow window of opportunity may exist for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. Severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before this activity wanes late this evening into the overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...20Z Update... Very minor changes were made to the outlook with this update. A cluster of thunderstorms is evolving immediately ahead of the surface low over southern MN, where low-level convergence is maximized amid boundary-layer heating and decreasing inhibition. Given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear (per MPX VWP), this activity should gradually intensify through the afternoon, with a risk of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. Reference MCD #458 for more information. Farther south, the latest surface observations and radar imagery depict gradually increasing boundary-layer convergence ahead of a well-defined triple point over south-central/southeast NE. While satellite imagery still suggests strong capping at the base of the EML, expectations are still for isolated/discrete storm development near the triple point in southeast NE later this afternoon into the evening. The primary concern will be large to very large hail with initially discrete supercells, with an increasing risk of damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes into this evening. For additional details, reference MCD #459. ..Weinman.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-upper flow will extend from the southern High Plains to the central Great Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream of a large-scale trough over the West. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a capped stratocumulus shield from eastern OK northward into eastern KS and the MO Valley. This low-level moisture depicted on satellite corresponds with a 10.0-11.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture will continue northward on southerly flow to the east of a weak surface wave which is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. Strong heating and continued moisture advection will result in moderate to strong destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Models continue to show initial thunderstorm development around 20z in southern MN and around 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). Model forecast soundings over southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south, greater buoyancy and elongated hodographs will be more favorable for supercells. A long-track supercell or two is forecast from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight. Large to giant hail (peak diameter 2.75 to 3.5 inches) will be possible with the more intense phase of the supercell activity. A narrow window of opportunity may exist for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. Severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before this activity wanes late this evening into the overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...20Z Update... Very minor changes were made to the outlook with this update. A cluster of thunderstorms is evolving immediately ahead of the surface low over southern MN, where low-level convergence is maximized amid boundary-layer heating and decreasing inhibition. Given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear (per MPX VWP), this activity should gradually intensify through the afternoon, with a risk of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. Reference MCD #458 for more information. Farther south, the latest surface observations and radar imagery depict gradually increasing boundary-layer convergence ahead of a well-defined triple point over south-central/southeast NE. While satellite imagery still suggests strong capping at the base of the EML, expectations are still for isolated/discrete storm development near the triple point in southeast NE later this afternoon into the evening. The primary concern will be large to very large hail with initially discrete supercells, with an increasing risk of damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes into this evening. For additional details, reference MCD #459. ..Weinman.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-upper flow will extend from the southern High Plains to the central Great Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream of a large-scale trough over the West. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a capped stratocumulus shield from eastern OK northward into eastern KS and the MO Valley. This low-level moisture depicted on satellite corresponds with a 10.0-11.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture will continue northward on southerly flow to the east of a weak surface wave which is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. Strong heating and continued moisture advection will result in moderate to strong destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Models continue to show initial thunderstorm development around 20z in southern MN and around 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). Model forecast soundings over southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south, greater buoyancy and elongated hodographs will be more favorable for supercells. A long-track supercell or two is forecast from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight. Large to giant hail (peak diameter 2.75 to 3.5 inches) will be possible with the more intense phase of the supercell activity. A narrow window of opportunity may exist for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. Severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before this activity wanes late this evening into the overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...20Z Update... Very minor changes were made to the outlook with this update. A cluster of thunderstorms is evolving immediately ahead of the surface low over southern MN, where low-level convergence is maximized amid boundary-layer heating and decreasing inhibition. Given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear (per MPX VWP), this activity should gradually intensify through the afternoon, with a risk of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. Reference MCD #458 for more information. Farther south, the latest surface observations and radar imagery depict gradually increasing boundary-layer convergence ahead of a well-defined triple point over south-central/southeast NE. While satellite imagery still suggests strong capping at the base of the EML, expectations are still for isolated/discrete storm development near the triple point in southeast NE later this afternoon into the evening. The primary concern will be large to very large hail with initially discrete supercells, with an increasing risk of damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes into this evening. For additional details, reference MCD #459. ..Weinman.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-upper flow will extend from the southern High Plains to the central Great Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream of a large-scale trough over the West. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a capped stratocumulus shield from eastern OK northward into eastern KS and the MO Valley. This low-level moisture depicted on satellite corresponds with a 10.0-11.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture will continue northward on southerly flow to the east of a weak surface wave which is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. Strong heating and continued moisture advection will result in moderate to strong destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Models continue to show initial thunderstorm development around 20z in southern MN and around 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). Model forecast soundings over southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south, greater buoyancy and elongated hodographs will be more favorable for supercells. A long-track supercell or two is forecast from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight. Large to giant hail (peak diameter 2.75 to 3.5 inches) will be possible with the more intense phase of the supercell activity. A narrow window of opportunity may exist for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. Severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before this activity wanes late this evening into the overnight. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0257 PM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025 Valid 172000Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL IOWA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms are expected, mainly from late afternoon into early tonight from eastern Nebraska into western and central Iowa. Very large hail to 3 inches in diameter or greater, isolated severe gusts of 60-70 mph, and a couple of tornadoes will all be possible. ...20Z Update... Very minor changes were made to the outlook with this update. A cluster of thunderstorms is evolving immediately ahead of the surface low over southern MN, where low-level convergence is maximized amid boundary-layer heating and decreasing inhibition. Given around 40 kt of deep-layer shear (per MPX VWP), this activity should gradually intensify through the afternoon, with a risk of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts. Reference MCD #458 for more information. Farther south, the latest surface observations and radar imagery depict gradually increasing boundary-layer convergence ahead of a well-defined triple point over south-central/southeast NE. While satellite imagery still suggests strong capping at the base of the EML, expectations are still for isolated/discrete storm development near the triple point in southeast NE later this afternoon into the evening. The primary concern will be large to very large hail with initially discrete supercells, with an increasing risk of damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes into this evening. For additional details, reference MCD #459. ..Weinman.. 04/17/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Thu Apr 17 2025/ ...NE/IA/MN/MO through early tonight... A belt of strong southwesterly mid-upper flow will extend from the southern High Plains to the central Great Plains and upper MS Valley, downstream of a large-scale trough over the West. Visible-satellite imagery late this morning shows a capped stratocumulus shield from eastern OK northward into eastern KS and the MO Valley. This low-level moisture depicted on satellite corresponds with a 10.0-11.5 g/kg lowest 100-mb mean mixing ratio and dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Moisture will continue northward on southerly flow to the east of a weak surface wave which is expected to move along an associated baroclinic from the mid MO Valley to the upper MS Valley, while a lee cyclone develops south-southeastward across the central High Plains. Strong heating and continued moisture advection will result in moderate to strong destabilization from eastern KS to eastern NE/western IA and southern MN. Models continue to show initial thunderstorm development around 20z in southern MN and around 22z in eastern NE (near and just east of the cold front/dryline triple point). Model forecast soundings over southern MN will favor a mix of supercells and storm clusters capable of producing large hail (generally 1-1.75 inch diameter) and isolated strong-severe gusts (50-60 mph), and perhaps a brief tornado. Farther south, greater buoyancy and elongated hodographs will be more favorable for supercells. A long-track supercell or two is forecast from eastern NE this evening into western/central IA through early tonight. Large to giant hail (peak diameter 2.75 to 3.5 inches) will be possible with the more intense phase of the supercell activity. A narrow window of opportunity may exist for a couple of tornadoes this evening with sufficient moisture (boundary-layer dewpoints near 60 F) as low-level shear increases. Severe gusts will be possible with the stronger storms before this activity wanes late this evening into the overnight. Read more