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SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Split mid-level flow will develop and persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Several prominent shortwave impulses are forecast to track over the Southwest and southern High Plains through the next several days. This should support several periods of robust surface cyclogenesis, resulting in strong winds and low humidity over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... The first of the strong low-amplitude shortwaves will pass over parts of the southern High Plains D2/Friday through D4/Sunday. A lee low will intensify in southeastern CO ahead of a surging cold front over the central Plains. As the cold front moves south, a secondary low will as well, intensifying west/southwesterly surface winds over parts of the Southwest. Gusty winds of 25-40 mph and low humidity are likely over parts of southeastern NM and the Rio Grand Valley. There remains some uncertainty on the northern extent as the cold front and potentially widespread precipitation limiting the coverage of the fire danger. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels should support some critical risk in more sheltered areas of the Big Bend. Residual strong northerly winds may develop over parts of southeast TX D4/Sunday, but confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns is low. Shortwave ridging will temporarily limit fire-weather potential as flow aloft weakens and cooler temperatures develop over the Plains D5/Monday. Some dry southerly flow will be possible across parts of OK/TX, but confidence is low owing to large model spread. Southwesterly flow aloft will return D6/Tuesday as another strong trough impacting the Southwest and southern High Plains. A lee low and dryline could support widespread elevated fire-weather potential through midweek. However, model trends suggest cooler and wetter conditions proceeding the next trough could temper fire-weather concerns somewhat. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Split mid-level flow will develop and persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Several prominent shortwave impulses are forecast to track over the Southwest and southern High Plains through the next several days. This should support several periods of robust surface cyclogenesis, resulting in strong winds and low humidity over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... The first of the strong low-amplitude shortwaves will pass over parts of the southern High Plains D2/Friday through D4/Sunday. A lee low will intensify in southeastern CO ahead of a surging cold front over the central Plains. As the cold front moves south, a secondary low will as well, intensifying west/southwesterly surface winds over parts of the Southwest. Gusty winds of 25-40 mph and low humidity are likely over parts of southeastern NM and the Rio Grand Valley. There remains some uncertainty on the northern extent as the cold front and potentially widespread precipitation limiting the coverage of the fire danger. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels should support some critical risk in more sheltered areas of the Big Bend. Residual strong northerly winds may develop over parts of southeast TX D4/Sunday, but confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns is low. Shortwave ridging will temporarily limit fire-weather potential as flow aloft weakens and cooler temperatures develop over the Plains D5/Monday. Some dry southerly flow will be possible across parts of OK/TX, but confidence is low owing to large model spread. Southwesterly flow aloft will return D6/Tuesday as another strong trough impacting the Southwest and southern High Plains. A lee low and dryline could support widespread elevated fire-weather potential through midweek. However, model trends suggest cooler and wetter conditions proceeding the next trough could temper fire-weather concerns somewhat. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Split mid-level flow will develop and persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Several prominent shortwave impulses are forecast to track over the Southwest and southern High Plains through the next several days. This should support several periods of robust surface cyclogenesis, resulting in strong winds and low humidity over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... The first of the strong low-amplitude shortwaves will pass over parts of the southern High Plains D2/Friday through D4/Sunday. A lee low will intensify in southeastern CO ahead of a surging cold front over the central Plains. As the cold front moves south, a secondary low will as well, intensifying west/southwesterly surface winds over parts of the Southwest. Gusty winds of 25-40 mph and low humidity are likely over parts of southeastern NM and the Rio Grand Valley. There remains some uncertainty on the northern extent as the cold front and potentially widespread precipitation limiting the coverage of the fire danger. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels should support some critical risk in more sheltered areas of the Big Bend. Residual strong northerly winds may develop over parts of southeast TX D4/Sunday, but confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns is low. Shortwave ridging will temporarily limit fire-weather potential as flow aloft weakens and cooler temperatures develop over the Plains D5/Monday. Some dry southerly flow will be possible across parts of OK/TX, but confidence is low owing to large model spread. Southwesterly flow aloft will return D6/Tuesday as another strong trough impacting the Southwest and southern High Plains. A lee low and dryline could support widespread elevated fire-weather potential through midweek. However, model trends suggest cooler and wetter conditions proceeding the next trough could temper fire-weather concerns somewhat. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Split mid-level flow will develop and persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Several prominent shortwave impulses are forecast to track over the Southwest and southern High Plains through the next several days. This should support several periods of robust surface cyclogenesis, resulting in strong winds and low humidity over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... The first of the strong low-amplitude shortwaves will pass over parts of the southern High Plains D2/Friday through D4/Sunday. A lee low will intensify in southeastern CO ahead of a surging cold front over the central Plains. As the cold front moves south, a secondary low will as well, intensifying west/southwesterly surface winds over parts of the Southwest. Gusty winds of 25-40 mph and low humidity are likely over parts of southeastern NM and the Rio Grand Valley. There remains some uncertainty on the northern extent as the cold front and potentially widespread precipitation limiting the coverage of the fire danger. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels should support some critical risk in more sheltered areas of the Big Bend. Residual strong northerly winds may develop over parts of southeast TX D4/Sunday, but confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns is low. Shortwave ridging will temporarily limit fire-weather potential as flow aloft weakens and cooler temperatures develop over the Plains D5/Monday. Some dry southerly flow will be possible across parts of OK/TX, but confidence is low owing to large model spread. Southwesterly flow aloft will return D6/Tuesday as another strong trough impacting the Southwest and southern High Plains. A lee low and dryline could support widespread elevated fire-weather potential through midweek. However, model trends suggest cooler and wetter conditions proceeding the next trough could temper fire-weather concerns somewhat. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 141200Z Split mid-level flow will develop and persist over much of the CONUS through the extended forecast period. Several prominent shortwave impulses are forecast to track over the Southwest and southern High Plains through the next several days. This should support several periods of robust surface cyclogenesis, resulting in strong winds and low humidity over parts of the southern High Plains. ...Southwest and southern High Plains... The first of the strong low-amplitude shortwaves will pass over parts of the southern High Plains D2/Friday through D4/Sunday. A lee low will intensify in southeastern CO ahead of a surging cold front over the central Plains. As the cold front moves south, a secondary low will as well, intensifying west/southwesterly surface winds over parts of the Southwest. Gusty winds of 25-40 mph and low humidity are likely over parts of southeastern NM and the Rio Grand Valley. There remains some uncertainty on the northern extent as the cold front and potentially widespread precipitation limiting the coverage of the fire danger. However, the presence of strong winds and dry fuels should support some critical risk in more sheltered areas of the Big Bend. Residual strong northerly winds may develop over parts of southeast TX D4/Sunday, but confidence in widespread fire-weather concerns is low. Shortwave ridging will temporarily limit fire-weather potential as flow aloft weakens and cooler temperatures develop over the Plains D5/Monday. Some dry southerly flow will be possible across parts of OK/TX, but confidence is low owing to large model spread. Southwesterly flow aloft will return D6/Tuesday as another strong trough impacting the Southwest and southern High Plains. A lee low and dryline could support widespread elevated fire-weather potential through midweek. However, model trends suggest cooler and wetter conditions proceeding the next trough could temper fire-weather concerns somewhat. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

Navajo and Apache counties adopted fire restrictions as historically dry winter conditions throughout the region increased wildfire danger. KNAU Arizona Public Radio (Flagstaff, Ariz.), Feb 28, 2025

Stage 1 fire restrictions took effect in the Apache-Sitgreaves National Forests on Friday, February 28 due to extremely dry winter conditions. The wildfire danger has increased, notably in the White Mountains, as precipitation and snowpack were at record lows. Under stage 1 restrictions, campfires and charcoal and wood stoves were only allowed in developed forest recreation sites and smoking was only allowed inside vehicles or buildings. KNAU Arizona Public Radio (Flagstaff, Ariz.), Feb 28, 2025

North and South Carolina had 175 wildfires over the first weekend in March which were driven by high winds and unusually dry conditions. South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster declared a state of emergency on March 2 and issued a statewide burning ban. The largest blaze burned in the Carolina Forest in South Carolina’s Horry County. It blackened 1,600 acres. The next largest fire burned about 800 acres in Georgetown County and caused the evacuations of Price George. Firefighters in North Carolina fought a fire near Tryon near the South Carolina border. On Monday, March 3, the fire was 30% contained after charring 481 acres. WLEC (Sandusky, Ohio), March 6, 2025

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... ...20z Update... No major changes were made to the outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the TX Big Bend. Brief/localized elevated conditions are also possible over parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK ahead of a cold front. However, widespread low RH and critical winds are not expected. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... ...20z Update... No major changes were made to the outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the TX Big Bend. Brief/localized elevated conditions are also possible over parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK ahead of a cold front. However, widespread low RH and critical winds are not expected. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... ...20z Update... No major changes were made to the outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the TX Big Bend. Brief/localized elevated conditions are also possible over parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK ahead of a cold front. However, widespread low RH and critical winds are not expected. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... ...20z Update... No major changes were made to the outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the TX Big Bend. Brief/localized elevated conditions are also possible over parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK ahead of a cold front. However, widespread low RH and critical winds are not expected. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... ...20z Update... No major changes were made to the outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the TX Big Bend. Brief/localized elevated conditions are also possible over parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK ahead of a cold front. However, widespread low RH and critical winds are not expected. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... ...20z Update... No major changes were made to the outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the TX Big Bend. Brief/localized elevated conditions are also possible over parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK ahead of a cold front. However, widespread low RH and critical winds are not expected. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS BIG BEND... ...20z Update... No major changes were made to the outlook. Elevated to critical fire-weather conditions are likely over parts of the TX Big Bend. Brief/localized elevated conditions are also possible over parts of the TX Panhandle and western OK ahead of a cold front. However, widespread low RH and critical winds are not expected. See prior discussion. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0131 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify while traversing the southern Rockies, supporting the southward sagging of a surface cold front across the southern Plains as secondary surface-low development takes place along the New Mexico/Texas border tomorrow (Friday). South of the cold front and to the immediate lee of the southern Rockies, dry and windy conditions are expected. Elevated/Critical highlights have been introduced where favorable meteorological conditions will overspread dry fuels that have largely been spared by preceding rainfall. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds will exceed 20 mph amid 15 percent RH, especially from far southeast New Mexico into Far West Texas. Elevated-equivalent dry/windy conditions are expected over much of the Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma. However, fire weather highlights have been withheld given recent rainfall likely dampening fuels to a degree. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes required. Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across parts of the Great Basin and northern AZ over the past few hours. Recent LightningCast data suggests overall lightning potential remains low for the near-term with the relatively greatest chance for lightning across central/northern UT. This trend of isolated/infrequent lightning is expected to continue through late evening from CA into the central Rockies. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes required. Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across parts of the Great Basin and northern AZ over the past few hours. Recent LightningCast data suggests overall lightning potential remains low for the near-term with the relatively greatest chance for lightning across central/northern UT. This trend of isolated/infrequent lightning is expected to continue through late evening from CA into the central Rockies. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes required. Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across parts of the Great Basin and northern AZ over the past few hours. Recent LightningCast data suggests overall lightning potential remains low for the near-term with the relatively greatest chance for lightning across central/northern UT. This trend of isolated/infrequent lightning is expected to continue through late evening from CA into the central Rockies. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes required. Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across parts of the Great Basin and northern AZ over the past few hours. Recent LightningCast data suggests overall lightning potential remains low for the near-term with the relatively greatest chance for lightning across central/northern UT. This trend of isolated/infrequent lightning is expected to continue through late evening from CA into the central Rockies. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes required. Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across parts of the Great Basin and northern AZ over the past few hours. Recent LightningCast data suggests overall lightning potential remains low for the near-term with the relatively greatest chance for lightning across central/northern UT. This trend of isolated/infrequent lightning is expected to continue through late evening from CA into the central Rockies. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. Read more