Aggregator

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially in the Great Basin will move towards the Four Corners region today. A modest surface low in eastern New Mexico into West Texas will develop during the day. A cold front will continue to make southward progress into the southern Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are again expected during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow across the Southwest and southern Plains and a modest surface low along the Texas/New Mexico border will drive 15-20 mph (up to 25 mph in the terrain) surface winds by the afternoon. RH will be slightly higher than Thursday on account of mid/upper-level clouds. Values of around 10% may occur, but will occur on a relatively local basis. 15-20% will be more common. The driest fuels will be in New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. Farther east in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains, transitional/greening fuels will mitigate fire weather concerns even with similarly dry and windy conditions. ...Florida... Easterly winds of around 10 mph appear possible during the afternoon. RH of 25-35% can be expected along the western Peninsula. With dry fuels (current ERC data showing some locations above the 90th percentile), elevated fire weather is likely this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially in the Great Basin will move towards the Four Corners region today. A modest surface low in eastern New Mexico into West Texas will develop during the day. A cold front will continue to make southward progress into the southern Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are again expected during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow across the Southwest and southern Plains and a modest surface low along the Texas/New Mexico border will drive 15-20 mph (up to 25 mph in the terrain) surface winds by the afternoon. RH will be slightly higher than Thursday on account of mid/upper-level clouds. Values of around 10% may occur, but will occur on a relatively local basis. 15-20% will be more common. The driest fuels will be in New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. Farther east in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains, transitional/greening fuels will mitigate fire weather concerns even with similarly dry and windy conditions. ...Florida... Easterly winds of around 10 mph appear possible during the afternoon. RH of 25-35% can be expected along the western Peninsula. With dry fuels (current ERC data showing some locations above the 90th percentile), elevated fire weather is likely this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially in the Great Basin will move towards the Four Corners region today. A modest surface low in eastern New Mexico into West Texas will develop during the day. A cold front will continue to make southward progress into the southern Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are again expected during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow across the Southwest and southern Plains and a modest surface low along the Texas/New Mexico border will drive 15-20 mph (up to 25 mph in the terrain) surface winds by the afternoon. RH will be slightly higher than Thursday on account of mid/upper-level clouds. Values of around 10% may occur, but will occur on a relatively local basis. 15-20% will be more common. The driest fuels will be in New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. Farther east in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains, transitional/greening fuels will mitigate fire weather concerns even with similarly dry and windy conditions. ...Florida... Easterly winds of around 10 mph appear possible during the afternoon. RH of 25-35% can be expected along the western Peninsula. With dry fuels (current ERC data showing some locations above the 90th percentile), elevated fire weather is likely this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially in the Great Basin will move towards the Four Corners region today. A modest surface low in eastern New Mexico into West Texas will develop during the day. A cold front will continue to make southward progress into the southern Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are again expected during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow across the Southwest and southern Plains and a modest surface low along the Texas/New Mexico border will drive 15-20 mph (up to 25 mph in the terrain) surface winds by the afternoon. RH will be slightly higher than Thursday on account of mid/upper-level clouds. Values of around 10% may occur, but will occur on a relatively local basis. 15-20% will be more common. The driest fuels will be in New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. Farther east in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains, transitional/greening fuels will mitigate fire weather concerns even with similarly dry and windy conditions. ...Florida... Easterly winds of around 10 mph appear possible during the afternoon. RH of 25-35% can be expected along the western Peninsula. With dry fuels (current ERC data showing some locations above the 90th percentile), elevated fire weather is likely this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially in the Great Basin will move towards the Four Corners region today. A modest surface low in eastern New Mexico into West Texas will develop during the day. A cold front will continue to make southward progress into the southern Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are again expected during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow across the Southwest and southern Plains and a modest surface low along the Texas/New Mexico border will drive 15-20 mph (up to 25 mph in the terrain) surface winds by the afternoon. RH will be slightly higher than Thursday on account of mid/upper-level clouds. Values of around 10% may occur, but will occur on a relatively local basis. 15-20% will be more common. The driest fuels will be in New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. Farther east in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains, transitional/greening fuels will mitigate fire weather concerns even with similarly dry and windy conditions. ...Florida... Easterly winds of around 10 mph appear possible during the afternoon. RH of 25-35% can be expected along the western Peninsula. With dry fuels (current ERC data showing some locations above the 90th percentile), elevated fire weather is likely this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PARTS OF SOUTHERN/EASTERN NEW MEXICO INTO FAR WEST TEXAS... ...Synopsis... An upper trough initially in the Great Basin will move towards the Four Corners region today. A modest surface low in eastern New Mexico into West Texas will develop during the day. A cold front will continue to make southward progress into the southern Plains. ...New Mexico into West Texas... Elevated to critical fire weather conditions are again expected during the afternoon. Moderate mid-level flow across the Southwest and southern Plains and a modest surface low along the Texas/New Mexico border will drive 15-20 mph (up to 25 mph in the terrain) surface winds by the afternoon. RH will be slightly higher than Thursday on account of mid/upper-level clouds. Values of around 10% may occur, but will occur on a relatively local basis. 15-20% will be more common. The driest fuels will be in New Mexico and the Trans-Pecos. Farther east in the Texas Panhandle/South Plains, transitional/greening fuels will mitigate fire weather concerns even with similarly dry and windy conditions. ...Florida... Easterly winds of around 10 mph appear possible during the afternoon. RH of 25-35% can be expected along the western Peninsula. With dry fuels (current ERC data showing some locations above the 90th percentile), elevated fire weather is likely this afternoon. ..Wendt.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A northern stream upper shortwave trough will shift east across Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Saturday. Meanwhile, a cold front will shift southeast across the Ohio Valley through afternoon. Further south, a southern stream upper trough over the Southwest will become negatively tilted as it spreads eastward over the southern Plains by Sunday morning. The southwest extent of the Ohio Valley cold front will stall over TX/OK and into the Ozarks for much of the day as warm advection maintains a moist warm sector ahead of the boundary prior to stronger height falls overspreading the region near/after 00z. ...OK/TX into the Ohio Valley - Saturday morning/afternoon... Fast southwesterly deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary will result in a substantial area of ongoing rain and thunderstorms Saturday morning from eastern OK into the Ozarks and northeast along the surface front through the Ohio Valley. While instability will remain limited, strong deep layer flow and cool temperatures aloft could support sporadic strong gusts and marginally severe hail diurnally. ...TX/OK into the Ozarks - Saturday late afternoon/evening... Convection is likely to redevelop late Saturday afternoon along the cold front in persistent low-level warm advection and as a low-level jet increases toward evening. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, with cool temperatures aloft supporting a corridor of moderate MLCAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) from west-central TX and north TX into southeast OK/western AR. Initial supercells could pose a risk for large hail and a tornado or two. Convection may become undercut by the southeast-advancing cold front with time into the evening hours, with some upscale growth into training clusters of line segments. While inhibition will increase into the nighttime hours, some risk for isolated damaging gusts could accompany any linear development as well. ..Leitman.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A northern stream upper shortwave trough will shift east across Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Saturday. Meanwhile, a cold front will shift southeast across the Ohio Valley through afternoon. Further south, a southern stream upper trough over the Southwest will become negatively tilted as it spreads eastward over the southern Plains by Sunday morning. The southwest extent of the Ohio Valley cold front will stall over TX/OK and into the Ozarks for much of the day as warm advection maintains a moist warm sector ahead of the boundary prior to stronger height falls overspreading the region near/after 00z. ...OK/TX into the Ohio Valley - Saturday morning/afternoon... Fast southwesterly deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary will result in a substantial area of ongoing rain and thunderstorms Saturday morning from eastern OK into the Ozarks and northeast along the surface front through the Ohio Valley. While instability will remain limited, strong deep layer flow and cool temperatures aloft could support sporadic strong gusts and marginally severe hail diurnally. ...TX/OK into the Ozarks - Saturday late afternoon/evening... Convection is likely to redevelop late Saturday afternoon along the cold front in persistent low-level warm advection and as a low-level jet increases toward evening. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, with cool temperatures aloft supporting a corridor of moderate MLCAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) from west-central TX and north TX into southeast OK/western AR. Initial supercells could pose a risk for large hail and a tornado or two. Convection may become undercut by the southeast-advancing cold front with time into the evening hours, with some upscale growth into training clusters of line segments. While inhibition will increase into the nighttime hours, some risk for isolated damaging gusts could accompany any linear development as well. ..Leitman.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A northern stream upper shortwave trough will shift east across Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Saturday. Meanwhile, a cold front will shift southeast across the Ohio Valley through afternoon. Further south, a southern stream upper trough over the Southwest will become negatively tilted as it spreads eastward over the southern Plains by Sunday morning. The southwest extent of the Ohio Valley cold front will stall over TX/OK and into the Ozarks for much of the day as warm advection maintains a moist warm sector ahead of the boundary prior to stronger height falls overspreading the region near/after 00z. ...OK/TX into the Ohio Valley - Saturday morning/afternoon... Fast southwesterly deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary will result in a substantial area of ongoing rain and thunderstorms Saturday morning from eastern OK into the Ozarks and northeast along the surface front through the Ohio Valley. While instability will remain limited, strong deep layer flow and cool temperatures aloft could support sporadic strong gusts and marginally severe hail diurnally. ...TX/OK into the Ozarks - Saturday late afternoon/evening... Convection is likely to redevelop late Saturday afternoon along the cold front in persistent low-level warm advection and as a low-level jet increases toward evening. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, with cool temperatures aloft supporting a corridor of moderate MLCAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) from west-central TX and north TX into southeast OK/western AR. Initial supercells could pose a risk for large hail and a tornado or two. Convection may become undercut by the southeast-advancing cold front with time into the evening hours, with some upscale growth into training clusters of line segments. While inhibition will increase into the nighttime hours, some risk for isolated damaging gusts could accompany any linear development as well. ..Leitman.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A northern stream upper shortwave trough will shift east across Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Saturday. Meanwhile, a cold front will shift southeast across the Ohio Valley through afternoon. Further south, a southern stream upper trough over the Southwest will become negatively tilted as it spreads eastward over the southern Plains by Sunday morning. The southwest extent of the Ohio Valley cold front will stall over TX/OK and into the Ozarks for much of the day as warm advection maintains a moist warm sector ahead of the boundary prior to stronger height falls overspreading the region near/after 00z. ...OK/TX into the Ohio Valley - Saturday morning/afternoon... Fast southwesterly deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary will result in a substantial area of ongoing rain and thunderstorms Saturday morning from eastern OK into the Ozarks and northeast along the surface front through the Ohio Valley. While instability will remain limited, strong deep layer flow and cool temperatures aloft could support sporadic strong gusts and marginally severe hail diurnally. ...TX/OK into the Ozarks - Saturday late afternoon/evening... Convection is likely to redevelop late Saturday afternoon along the cold front in persistent low-level warm advection and as a low-level jet increases toward evening. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, with cool temperatures aloft supporting a corridor of moderate MLCAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) from west-central TX and north TX into southeast OK/western AR. Initial supercells could pose a risk for large hail and a tornado or two. Convection may become undercut by the southeast-advancing cold front with time into the evening hours, with some upscale growth into training clusters of line segments. While inhibition will increase into the nighttime hours, some risk for isolated damaging gusts could accompany any linear development as well. ..Leitman.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A northern stream upper shortwave trough will shift east across Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Saturday. Meanwhile, a cold front will shift southeast across the Ohio Valley through afternoon. Further south, a southern stream upper trough over the Southwest will become negatively tilted as it spreads eastward over the southern Plains by Sunday morning. The southwest extent of the Ohio Valley cold front will stall over TX/OK and into the Ozarks for much of the day as warm advection maintains a moist warm sector ahead of the boundary prior to stronger height falls overspreading the region near/after 00z. ...OK/TX into the Ohio Valley - Saturday morning/afternoon... Fast southwesterly deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary will result in a substantial area of ongoing rain and thunderstorms Saturday morning from eastern OK into the Ozarks and northeast along the surface front through the Ohio Valley. While instability will remain limited, strong deep layer flow and cool temperatures aloft could support sporadic strong gusts and marginally severe hail diurnally. ...TX/OK into the Ozarks - Saturday late afternoon/evening... Convection is likely to redevelop late Saturday afternoon along the cold front in persistent low-level warm advection and as a low-level jet increases toward evening. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, with cool temperatures aloft supporting a corridor of moderate MLCAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) from west-central TX and north TX into southeast OK/western AR. Initial supercells could pose a risk for large hail and a tornado or two. Convection may become undercut by the southeast-advancing cold front with time into the evening hours, with some upscale growth into training clusters of line segments. While inhibition will increase into the nighttime hours, some risk for isolated damaging gusts could accompany any linear development as well. ..Leitman.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A northern stream upper shortwave trough will shift east across Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Saturday. Meanwhile, a cold front will shift southeast across the Ohio Valley through afternoon. Further south, a southern stream upper trough over the Southwest will become negatively tilted as it spreads eastward over the southern Plains by Sunday morning. The southwest extent of the Ohio Valley cold front will stall over TX/OK and into the Ozarks for much of the day as warm advection maintains a moist warm sector ahead of the boundary prior to stronger height falls overspreading the region near/after 00z. ...OK/TX into the Ohio Valley - Saturday morning/afternoon... Fast southwesterly deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary will result in a substantial area of ongoing rain and thunderstorms Saturday morning from eastern OK into the Ozarks and northeast along the surface front through the Ohio Valley. While instability will remain limited, strong deep layer flow and cool temperatures aloft could support sporadic strong gusts and marginally severe hail diurnally. ...TX/OK into the Ozarks - Saturday late afternoon/evening... Convection is likely to redevelop late Saturday afternoon along the cold front in persistent low-level warm advection and as a low-level jet increases toward evening. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, with cool temperatures aloft supporting a corridor of moderate MLCAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) from west-central TX and north TX into southeast OK/western AR. Initial supercells could pose a risk for large hail and a tornado or two. Convection may become undercut by the southeast-advancing cold front with time into the evening hours, with some upscale growth into training clusters of line segments. While inhibition will increase into the nighttime hours, some risk for isolated damaging gusts could accompany any linear development as well. ..Leitman.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A northern stream upper shortwave trough will shift east across Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Saturday. Meanwhile, a cold front will shift southeast across the Ohio Valley through afternoon. Further south, a southern stream upper trough over the Southwest will become negatively tilted as it spreads eastward over the southern Plains by Sunday morning. The southwest extent of the Ohio Valley cold front will stall over TX/OK and into the Ozarks for much of the day as warm advection maintains a moist warm sector ahead of the boundary prior to stronger height falls overspreading the region near/after 00z. ...OK/TX into the Ohio Valley - Saturday morning/afternoon... Fast southwesterly deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary will result in a substantial area of ongoing rain and thunderstorms Saturday morning from eastern OK into the Ozarks and northeast along the surface front through the Ohio Valley. While instability will remain limited, strong deep layer flow and cool temperatures aloft could support sporadic strong gusts and marginally severe hail diurnally. ...TX/OK into the Ozarks - Saturday late afternoon/evening... Convection is likely to redevelop late Saturday afternoon along the cold front in persistent low-level warm advection and as a low-level jet increases toward evening. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, with cool temperatures aloft supporting a corridor of moderate MLCAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) from west-central TX and north TX into southeast OK/western AR. Initial supercells could pose a risk for large hail and a tornado or two. Convection may become undercut by the southeast-advancing cold front with time into the evening hours, with some upscale growth into training clusters of line segments. While inhibition will increase into the nighttime hours, some risk for isolated damaging gusts could accompany any linear development as well. ..Leitman.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from central Texas into the Ohio Valley on Saturday. ...Synopsis... A northern stream upper shortwave trough will shift east across Ontario/Quebec and the Great Lakes to the Northeast on Saturday. Meanwhile, a cold front will shift southeast across the Ohio Valley through afternoon. Further south, a southern stream upper trough over the Southwest will become negatively tilted as it spreads eastward over the southern Plains by Sunday morning. The southwest extent of the Ohio Valley cold front will stall over TX/OK and into the Ozarks for much of the day as warm advection maintains a moist warm sector ahead of the boundary prior to stronger height falls overspreading the region near/after 00z. ...OK/TX into the Ohio Valley - Saturday morning/afternoon... Fast southwesterly deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary will result in a substantial area of ongoing rain and thunderstorms Saturday morning from eastern OK into the Ozarks and northeast along the surface front through the Ohio Valley. While instability will remain limited, strong deep layer flow and cool temperatures aloft could support sporadic strong gusts and marginally severe hail diurnally. ...TX/OK into the Ozarks - Saturday late afternoon/evening... Convection is likely to redevelop late Saturday afternoon along the cold front in persistent low-level warm advection and as a low-level jet increases toward evening. Supercell wind profiles are evident in forecast soundings, with cool temperatures aloft supporting a corridor of moderate MLCAPE (1000-2000 J/kg) from west-central TX and north TX into southeast OK/western AR. Initial supercells could pose a risk for large hail and a tornado or two. Convection may become undercut by the southeast-advancing cold front with time into the evening hours, with some upscale growth into training clusters of line segments. While inhibition will increase into the nighttime hours, some risk for isolated damaging gusts could accompany any linear development as well. ..Leitman.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...Discussion... Strong 500mb speed max is currently digging south across the northern Inter-Mountain Region. This feature will encourage a pronounced upper trough to evolve over the southwestern U.S. by the end of the period. A broad zone of strong mid-level flow will extend across northern Mexico-southern Plains-Great Lakes as height falls gradually spread into this corridor of the CONUS. As this trough deepens into lower latitudes, surface pressures will rise in the lee of the Rockies over the Plains, and a sharp cold font will surge into western IA-southern KS-OK Panhandle by the start of the period. This boundary will likely serve as a focus for robust convection through the period, and it should extend from eastern WI-western MO-northern TX Panhandle by early evening. Latest model guidance does not allow the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region to destabilize appreciably as buoyancy will be somewhat limited across this region. Even so, strong flow/shear warrant some concern for convective organization, and some risk for wind/hail will accompany frontal/pre-frontal storms as the boundary advances east through the period. Of more concern is the air mass across the southern Plains. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the High Plains from eastern NM into northwest TX, just south of the front. The northeast extent of this steep low-level lapse rate plume will likely extend into central OK. Latest model guidance suggests strong SBCAPE will evolve east of the dryline, and south of the front. As temperatures warm through the mid 80s convective temperatures will be breached along the dryline, likely by 21z. Forecast soundings support this and supercells are expected. This activity should grow upscale and spread northeast along the frontal zone. A considerably amount of post-frontal elevated convection is ultimately expected, and steep mid-level lapse rates favor hail with the elevated storms. While the frontal zone will prove sharp, with significant undercutting of updrafts, there is some risk for tornadoes prior to this occurring. Latest NAM guidance has 500mb temperature cooling to -15C at FSI by 04z, thus very large hail can be expected with supercells. Cold front will gradually sag southeast during the overnight hours, but an extended convective event is likely from western OK into the Mid-MS Valley due to the evolution of the longer-wave pattern. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...Discussion... Strong 500mb speed max is currently digging south across the northern Inter-Mountain Region. This feature will encourage a pronounced upper trough to evolve over the southwestern U.S. by the end of the period. A broad zone of strong mid-level flow will extend across northern Mexico-southern Plains-Great Lakes as height falls gradually spread into this corridor of the CONUS. As this trough deepens into lower latitudes, surface pressures will rise in the lee of the Rockies over the Plains, and a sharp cold font will surge into western IA-southern KS-OK Panhandle by the start of the period. This boundary will likely serve as a focus for robust convection through the period, and it should extend from eastern WI-western MO-northern TX Panhandle by early evening. Latest model guidance does not allow the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region to destabilize appreciably as buoyancy will be somewhat limited across this region. Even so, strong flow/shear warrant some concern for convective organization, and some risk for wind/hail will accompany frontal/pre-frontal storms as the boundary advances east through the period. Of more concern is the air mass across the southern Plains. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the High Plains from eastern NM into northwest TX, just south of the front. The northeast extent of this steep low-level lapse rate plume will likely extend into central OK. Latest model guidance suggests strong SBCAPE will evolve east of the dryline, and south of the front. As temperatures warm through the mid 80s convective temperatures will be breached along the dryline, likely by 21z. Forecast soundings support this and supercells are expected. This activity should grow upscale and spread northeast along the frontal zone. A considerably amount of post-frontal elevated convection is ultimately expected, and steep mid-level lapse rates favor hail with the elevated storms. While the frontal zone will prove sharp, with significant undercutting of updrafts, there is some risk for tornadoes prior to this occurring. Latest NAM guidance has 500mb temperature cooling to -15C at FSI by 04z, thus very large hail can be expected with supercells. Cold front will gradually sag southeast during the overnight hours, but an extended convective event is likely from western OK into the Mid-MS Valley due to the evolution of the longer-wave pattern. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...Discussion... Strong 500mb speed max is currently digging south across the northern Inter-Mountain Region. This feature will encourage a pronounced upper trough to evolve over the southwestern U.S. by the end of the period. A broad zone of strong mid-level flow will extend across northern Mexico-southern Plains-Great Lakes as height falls gradually spread into this corridor of the CONUS. As this trough deepens into lower latitudes, surface pressures will rise in the lee of the Rockies over the Plains, and a sharp cold font will surge into western IA-southern KS-OK Panhandle by the start of the period. This boundary will likely serve as a focus for robust convection through the period, and it should extend from eastern WI-western MO-northern TX Panhandle by early evening. Latest model guidance does not allow the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region to destabilize appreciably as buoyancy will be somewhat limited across this region. Even so, strong flow/shear warrant some concern for convective organization, and some risk for wind/hail will accompany frontal/pre-frontal storms as the boundary advances east through the period. Of more concern is the air mass across the southern Plains. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the High Plains from eastern NM into northwest TX, just south of the front. The northeast extent of this steep low-level lapse rate plume will likely extend into central OK. Latest model guidance suggests strong SBCAPE will evolve east of the dryline, and south of the front. As temperatures warm through the mid 80s convective temperatures will be breached along the dryline, likely by 21z. Forecast soundings support this and supercells are expected. This activity should grow upscale and spread northeast along the frontal zone. A considerably amount of post-frontal elevated convection is ultimately expected, and steep mid-level lapse rates favor hail with the elevated storms. While the frontal zone will prove sharp, with significant undercutting of updrafts, there is some risk for tornadoes prior to this occurring. Latest NAM guidance has 500mb temperature cooling to -15C at FSI by 04z, thus very large hail can be expected with supercells. Cold front will gradually sag southeast during the overnight hours, but an extended convective event is likely from western OK into the Mid-MS Valley due to the evolution of the longer-wave pattern. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...Discussion... Strong 500mb speed max is currently digging south across the northern Inter-Mountain Region. This feature will encourage a pronounced upper trough to evolve over the southwestern U.S. by the end of the period. A broad zone of strong mid-level flow will extend across northern Mexico-southern Plains-Great Lakes as height falls gradually spread into this corridor of the CONUS. As this trough deepens into lower latitudes, surface pressures will rise in the lee of the Rockies over the Plains, and a sharp cold font will surge into western IA-southern KS-OK Panhandle by the start of the period. This boundary will likely serve as a focus for robust convection through the period, and it should extend from eastern WI-western MO-northern TX Panhandle by early evening. Latest model guidance does not allow the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region to destabilize appreciably as buoyancy will be somewhat limited across this region. Even so, strong flow/shear warrant some concern for convective organization, and some risk for wind/hail will accompany frontal/pre-frontal storms as the boundary advances east through the period. Of more concern is the air mass across the southern Plains. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the High Plains from eastern NM into northwest TX, just south of the front. The northeast extent of this steep low-level lapse rate plume will likely extend into central OK. Latest model guidance suggests strong SBCAPE will evolve east of the dryline, and south of the front. As temperatures warm through the mid 80s convective temperatures will be breached along the dryline, likely by 21z. Forecast soundings support this and supercells are expected. This activity should grow upscale and spread northeast along the frontal zone. A considerably amount of post-frontal elevated convection is ultimately expected, and steep mid-level lapse rates favor hail with the elevated storms. While the frontal zone will prove sharp, with significant undercutting of updrafts, there is some risk for tornadoes prior to this occurring. Latest NAM guidance has 500mb temperature cooling to -15C at FSI by 04z, thus very large hail can be expected with supercells. Cold front will gradually sag southeast during the overnight hours, but an extended convective event is likely from western OK into the Mid-MS Valley due to the evolution of the longer-wave pattern. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...Discussion... Strong 500mb speed max is currently digging south across the northern Inter-Mountain Region. This feature will encourage a pronounced upper trough to evolve over the southwestern U.S. by the end of the period. A broad zone of strong mid-level flow will extend across northern Mexico-southern Plains-Great Lakes as height falls gradually spread into this corridor of the CONUS. As this trough deepens into lower latitudes, surface pressures will rise in the lee of the Rockies over the Plains, and a sharp cold font will surge into western IA-southern KS-OK Panhandle by the start of the period. This boundary will likely serve as a focus for robust convection through the period, and it should extend from eastern WI-western MO-northern TX Panhandle by early evening. Latest model guidance does not allow the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region to destabilize appreciably as buoyancy will be somewhat limited across this region. Even so, strong flow/shear warrant some concern for convective organization, and some risk for wind/hail will accompany frontal/pre-frontal storms as the boundary advances east through the period. Of more concern is the air mass across the southern Plains. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the High Plains from eastern NM into northwest TX, just south of the front. The northeast extent of this steep low-level lapse rate plume will likely extend into central OK. Latest model guidance suggests strong SBCAPE will evolve east of the dryline, and south of the front. As temperatures warm through the mid 80s convective temperatures will be breached along the dryline, likely by 21z. Forecast soundings support this and supercells are expected. This activity should grow upscale and spread northeast along the frontal zone. A considerably amount of post-frontal elevated convection is ultimately expected, and steep mid-level lapse rates favor hail with the elevated storms. While the frontal zone will prove sharp, with significant undercutting of updrafts, there is some risk for tornadoes prior to this occurring. Latest NAM guidance has 500mb temperature cooling to -15C at FSI by 04z, thus very large hail can be expected with supercells. Cold front will gradually sag southeast during the overnight hours, but an extended convective event is likely from western OK into the Mid-MS Valley due to the evolution of the longer-wave pattern. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 04/18/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1235 AM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward toward the upper Great Lakes from late afternoon into early Saturday morning. Large hail and isolated severe gusts will be the main hazards, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...Discussion... Strong 500mb speed max is currently digging south across the northern Inter-Mountain Region. This feature will encourage a pronounced upper trough to evolve over the southwestern U.S. by the end of the period. A broad zone of strong mid-level flow will extend across northern Mexico-southern Plains-Great Lakes as height falls gradually spread into this corridor of the CONUS. As this trough deepens into lower latitudes, surface pressures will rise in the lee of the Rockies over the Plains, and a sharp cold font will surge into western IA-southern KS-OK Panhandle by the start of the period. This boundary will likely serve as a focus for robust convection through the period, and it should extend from eastern WI-western MO-northern TX Panhandle by early evening. Latest model guidance does not allow the upper Midwest/Great Lakes region to destabilize appreciably as buoyancy will be somewhat limited across this region. Even so, strong flow/shear warrant some concern for convective organization, and some risk for wind/hail will accompany frontal/pre-frontal storms as the boundary advances east through the period. Of more concern is the air mass across the southern Plains. Strong boundary-layer heating is expected across the High Plains from eastern NM into northwest TX, just south of the front. The northeast extent of this steep low-level lapse rate plume will likely extend into central OK. Latest model guidance suggests strong SBCAPE will evolve east of the dryline, and south of the front. As temperatures warm through the mid 80s convective temperatures will be breached along the dryline, likely by 21z. Forecast soundings support this and supercells are expected. This activity should grow upscale and spread northeast along the frontal zone. A considerably amount of post-frontal elevated convection is ultimately expected, and steep mid-level lapse rates favor hail with the elevated storms. While the frontal zone will prove sharp, with significant undercutting of updrafts, there is some risk for tornadoes prior to this occurring. Latest NAM guidance has 500mb temperature cooling to -15C at FSI by 04z, thus very large hail can be expected with supercells. Cold front will gradually sag southeast during the overnight hours, but an extended convective event is likely from western OK into the Mid-MS Valley due to the evolution of the longer-wave pattern. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 04/18/2025 Read more