Aggregator

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...FL Panhandle/Northern FL into Southern GA... A surface warm front is forecast to be draped across southern AL toward the FL/GA state line on Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be positioned over far southern MS/AL with a trailing cold front extending into the western Gulf. A southwesterly low-level jet around 30-40 kt at 850 mb will maintain a warm advection regime ahead of the low and cold front, and areas of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Sunday morning. Destabilization will likely be tempered by early convection, and storms may mostly be elevated. However, some risk of marginal hail or strong gusts will accompany stronger storms during the morning. By afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop across north FL ahead of the cold front. This activity may have a better chance to become surface-based. Thunderstorm clusters or an isolated supercell may produce strong to locally severe gusts. Furthermore, if convection can become surface-based and take advantage of somewhat enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the warm front, a risk for a tornado or two is possible. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...FL Panhandle/Northern FL into Southern GA... A surface warm front is forecast to be draped across southern AL toward the FL/GA state line on Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be positioned over far southern MS/AL with a trailing cold front extending into the western Gulf. A southwesterly low-level jet around 30-40 kt at 850 mb will maintain a warm advection regime ahead of the low and cold front, and areas of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Sunday morning. Destabilization will likely be tempered by early convection, and storms may mostly be elevated. However, some risk of marginal hail or strong gusts will accompany stronger storms during the morning. By afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop across north FL ahead of the cold front. This activity may have a better chance to become surface-based. Thunderstorm clusters or an isolated supercell may produce strong to locally severe gusts. Furthermore, if convection can become surface-based and take advantage of somewhat enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the warm front, a risk for a tornado or two is possible. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...FL Panhandle/Northern FL into Southern GA... A surface warm front is forecast to be draped across southern AL toward the FL/GA state line on Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be positioned over far southern MS/AL with a trailing cold front extending into the western Gulf. A southwesterly low-level jet around 30-40 kt at 850 mb will maintain a warm advection regime ahead of the low and cold front, and areas of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Sunday morning. Destabilization will likely be tempered by early convection, and storms may mostly be elevated. However, some risk of marginal hail or strong gusts will accompany stronger storms during the morning. By afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop across north FL ahead of the cold front. This activity may have a better chance to become surface-based. Thunderstorm clusters or an isolated supercell may produce strong to locally severe gusts. Furthermore, if convection can become surface-based and take advantage of somewhat enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the warm front, a risk for a tornado or two is possible. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible on Sunday from parts of the Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia and North Florida. ...FL Panhandle/Northern FL into Southern GA... A surface warm front is forecast to be draped across southern AL toward the FL/GA state line on Sunday. Meanwhile, a weak surface low will be positioned over far southern MS/AL with a trailing cold front extending into the western Gulf. A southwesterly low-level jet around 30-40 kt at 850 mb will maintain a warm advection regime ahead of the low and cold front, and areas of thunderstorms will likely be ongoing in the vicinity of the warm front Sunday morning. Destabilization will likely be tempered by early convection, and storms may mostly be elevated. However, some risk of marginal hail or strong gusts will accompany stronger storms during the morning. By afternoon, additional thunderstorms may develop across north FL ahead of the cold front. This activity may have a better chance to become surface-based. Thunderstorm clusters or an isolated supercell may produce strong to locally severe gusts. Furthermore, if convection can become surface-based and take advantage of somewhat enhanced low-level shear in the vicinity of the warm front, a risk for a tornado or two is possible. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast states. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast States... At mid-levels today, a low will move into the southern Plains, as an 80 to 100 knot jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system. A complex of thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of the jet streak this morning across north-central and northeast Texas. This convection will be mostly to the north of a cold front located from north Texas eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. The primary severe threat this morning will be marginally severe hail due to steep mid-level lapse rates, strong effective shear and sufficient instability. The cluster of storms will move eastward from the vicinity of east Texas this afternoon into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching system, and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support an isolated severe threat. The potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually gains access to a moist airmass located across the Gulf Coast region. For this reason, marginally severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado will be possible. The potential for severe gusts will likely be greatest ahead of short multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue after midnight, as new storms develop over the northern Gulf and move northeastward into the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast states. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast States... At mid-levels today, a low will move into the southern Plains, as an 80 to 100 knot jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system. A complex of thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of the jet streak this morning across north-central and northeast Texas. This convection will be mostly to the north of a cold front located from north Texas eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. The primary severe threat this morning will be marginally severe hail due to steep mid-level lapse rates, strong effective shear and sufficient instability. The cluster of storms will move eastward from the vicinity of east Texas this afternoon into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching system, and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support an isolated severe threat. The potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually gains access to a moist airmass located across the Gulf Coast region. For this reason, marginally severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado will be possible. The potential for severe gusts will likely be greatest ahead of short multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue after midnight, as new storms develop over the northern Gulf and move northeastward into the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast states. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast States... At mid-levels today, a low will move into the southern Plains, as an 80 to 100 knot jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system. A complex of thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of the jet streak this morning across north-central and northeast Texas. This convection will be mostly to the north of a cold front located from north Texas eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. The primary severe threat this morning will be marginally severe hail due to steep mid-level lapse rates, strong effective shear and sufficient instability. The cluster of storms will move eastward from the vicinity of east Texas this afternoon into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching system, and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support an isolated severe threat. The potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually gains access to a moist airmass located across the Gulf Coast region. For this reason, marginally severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado will be possible. The potential for severe gusts will likely be greatest ahead of short multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue after midnight, as new storms develop over the northern Gulf and move northeastward into the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast states. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast States... At mid-levels today, a low will move into the southern Plains, as an 80 to 100 knot jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system. A complex of thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of the jet streak this morning across north-central and northeast Texas. This convection will be mostly to the north of a cold front located from north Texas eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. The primary severe threat this morning will be marginally severe hail due to steep mid-level lapse rates, strong effective shear and sufficient instability. The cluster of storms will move eastward from the vicinity of east Texas this afternoon into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching system, and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support an isolated severe threat. The potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually gains access to a moist airmass located across the Gulf Coast region. For this reason, marginally severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado will be possible. The potential for severe gusts will likely be greatest ahead of short multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue after midnight, as new storms develop over the northern Gulf and move northeastward into the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast states. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast States... At mid-levels today, a low will move into the southern Plains, as an 80 to 100 knot jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system. A complex of thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of the jet streak this morning across north-central and northeast Texas. This convection will be mostly to the north of a cold front located from north Texas eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. The primary severe threat this morning will be marginally severe hail due to steep mid-level lapse rates, strong effective shear and sufficient instability. The cluster of storms will move eastward from the vicinity of east Texas this afternoon into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching system, and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support an isolated severe threat. The potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually gains access to a moist airmass located across the Gulf Coast region. For this reason, marginally severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado will be possible. The potential for severe gusts will likely be greatest ahead of short multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue after midnight, as new storms develop over the northern Gulf and move northeastward into the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast states. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast States... At mid-levels today, a low will move into the southern Plains, as an 80 to 100 knot jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system. A complex of thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of the jet streak this morning across north-central and northeast Texas. This convection will be mostly to the north of a cold front located from north Texas eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. The primary severe threat this morning will be marginally severe hail due to steep mid-level lapse rates, strong effective shear and sufficient instability. The cluster of storms will move eastward from the vicinity of east Texas this afternoon into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching system, and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support an isolated severe threat. The potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually gains access to a moist airmass located across the Gulf Coast region. For this reason, marginally severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado will be possible. The potential for severe gusts will likely be greatest ahead of short multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue after midnight, as new storms develop over the northern Gulf and move northeastward into the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast states. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast States... At mid-levels today, a low will move into the southern Plains, as an 80 to 100 knot jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system. A complex of thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of the jet streak this morning across north-central and northeast Texas. This convection will be mostly to the north of a cold front located from north Texas eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. The primary severe threat this morning will be marginally severe hail due to steep mid-level lapse rates, strong effective shear and sufficient instability. The cluster of storms will move eastward from the vicinity of east Texas this afternoon into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching system, and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support an isolated severe threat. The potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually gains access to a moist airmass located across the Gulf Coast region. For this reason, marginally severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado will be possible. The potential for severe gusts will likely be greatest ahead of short multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue after midnight, as new storms develop over the northern Gulf and move northeastward into the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast states. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast States... At mid-levels today, a low will move into the southern Plains, as an 80 to 100 knot jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system. A complex of thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of the jet streak this morning across north-central and northeast Texas. This convection will be mostly to the north of a cold front located from north Texas eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. The primary severe threat this morning will be marginally severe hail due to steep mid-level lapse rates, strong effective shear and sufficient instability. The cluster of storms will move eastward from the vicinity of east Texas this afternoon into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching system, and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support an isolated severe threat. The potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually gains access to a moist airmass located across the Gulf Coast region. For this reason, marginally severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado will be possible. The potential for severe gusts will likely be greatest ahead of short multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue after midnight, as new storms develop over the northern Gulf and move northeastward into the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1151 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND CENTRAL TO EASTERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the central and eastern Gulf Coast states. ...Southern Plains/Lower Mississippi Valley/Central and Eastern Gulf Coast States... At mid-levels today, a low will move into the southern Plains, as an 80 to 100 knot jet streak translates eastward through the base of the system. A complex of thunderstorms will be ongoing ahead of the jet streak this morning across north-central and northeast Texas. This convection will be mostly to the north of a cold front located from north Texas eastward into the Ark-La-Tex. The primary severe threat this morning will be marginally severe hail due to steep mid-level lapse rates, strong effective shear and sufficient instability. The cluster of storms will move eastward from the vicinity of east Texas this afternoon into the Lower Mississippi Valley this evening. Large-scale ascent ahead of the approaching system, and strong deep-layer shear will continue to support an isolated severe threat. The potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually gains access to a moist airmass located across the Gulf Coast region. For this reason, marginally severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado will be possible. The potential for severe gusts will likely be greatest ahead of short multicell line segments. The severe threat is expected to continue after midnight, as new storms develop over the northern Gulf and move northeastward into the central Gulf Coast and Florida Panhandle. ..Broyles/Halbert.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with isolated large hail are expected tonight across parts of north-central and northeast Texas. ...North-central and Northeast Texas... The latest water vapor imagery has a mid-level low located over the Desert Southwest, with relatively dry air present within west-southwesterly flow over parts of the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. As the mid-level low in the Desert Southwest moves eastward toward the southern Rockies, low-level moisture advection and instability will increase across the southern Plains. The exit region of the mid-level jet will move eastward into the southern Plains tonight, contributing to a low-level jet response. 850 mb flow is expected to increase to between 30 and 40 knots over parts of southwest and central Texas. As instability and lift increases, thunderstorm development is expected after midnight across parts of north-central Texas. The latest RAP forecast soundings in the 06Z to 12Z time frame over north-central Texas have MUCAPE peaking around 1200 J/kg, with 700-500 mb lapse rates reaching 7.5 C/km. Effective shear is forecast to increase into the 50 to 65 knot range. This environment should support an isolated large hail threat with elevated rotating storms. The threat for hail could develop eastward into parts of northeast Texas by the end of the period. For this update, the Marginal Risk has been expanded into northeast Texas. ..Broyles.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with isolated large hail are expected tonight across parts of north-central and northeast Texas. ...North-central and Northeast Texas... The latest water vapor imagery has a mid-level low located over the Desert Southwest, with relatively dry air present within west-southwesterly flow over parts of the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. As the mid-level low in the Desert Southwest moves eastward toward the southern Rockies, low-level moisture advection and instability will increase across the southern Plains. The exit region of the mid-level jet will move eastward into the southern Plains tonight, contributing to a low-level jet response. 850 mb flow is expected to increase to between 30 and 40 knots over parts of southwest and central Texas. As instability and lift increases, thunderstorm development is expected after midnight across parts of north-central Texas. The latest RAP forecast soundings in the 06Z to 12Z time frame over north-central Texas have MUCAPE peaking around 1200 J/kg, with 700-500 mb lapse rates reaching 7.5 C/km. Effective shear is forecast to increase into the 50 to 65 knot range. This environment should support an isolated large hail threat with elevated rotating storms. The threat for hail could develop eastward into parts of northeast Texas by the end of the period. For this update, the Marginal Risk has been expanded into northeast Texas. ..Broyles.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0658 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe storms with isolated large hail are expected tonight across parts of north-central and northeast Texas. ...North-central and Northeast Texas... The latest water vapor imagery has a mid-level low located over the Desert Southwest, with relatively dry air present within west-southwesterly flow over parts of the southern Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. As the mid-level low in the Desert Southwest moves eastward toward the southern Rockies, low-level moisture advection and instability will increase across the southern Plains. The exit region of the mid-level jet will move eastward into the southern Plains tonight, contributing to a low-level jet response. 850 mb flow is expected to increase to between 30 and 40 knots over parts of southwest and central Texas. As instability and lift increases, thunderstorm development is expected after midnight across parts of north-central Texas. The latest RAP forecast soundings in the 06Z to 12Z time frame over north-central Texas have MUCAPE peaking around 1200 J/kg, with 700-500 mb lapse rates reaching 7.5 C/km. Effective shear is forecast to increase into the 50 to 65 knot range. This environment should support an isolated large hail threat with elevated rotating storms. The threat for hail could develop eastward into parts of northeast Texas by the end of the period. For this update, the Marginal Risk has been expanded into northeast Texas. ..Broyles.. 03/08/2025 Read more

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Mar 7 22:33:02 UTC 2025.

No watches are valid as of Fri Mar 7 22:33:02 UTC 2025.

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...D3/Sunday - Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... On the backside of a midlevel low tracking eastward across the lower MS Valley, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will persist across the Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley. While elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, critical conditions are not currently expected. ...D5-D6/Tuesday-Wednesday - Southern High Plains... A low-latitude midlevel trough will move eastward across the Southwest and southern Rockies, resulting in strengthening west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the southern High Plains. This will favor dry/breezy conditions each afternoon, and elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...D8/Friday - Southern High Plains... Medium-range guidance is in very good agreement, depicting a robust midlevel trough and 90+ kt midlevel jet streak overspreading the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a deepening surface cyclone over the central Plains will favor strong westerly surface winds amid low RH across the region. Given the strong model agreement and limited chance of rainfall over already receptive fuels, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 PM CST Fri Mar 07 2025 Valid 091200Z - 151200Z ...D3/Sunday - Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley... On the backside of a midlevel low tracking eastward across the lower MS Valley, a dry/breezy post-frontal air mass will persist across the Lower/Middle Rio Grande Valley. While elevated fire-weather conditions are possible, critical conditions are not currently expected. ...D5-D6/Tuesday-Wednesday - Southern High Plains... A low-latitude midlevel trough will move eastward across the Southwest and southern Rockies, resulting in strengthening west-southwesterly midlevel flow across the southern High Plains. This will favor dry/breezy conditions each afternoon, and elevated to locally critical fire-weather conditions are expected. ...D8/Friday - Southern High Plains... Medium-range guidance is in very good agreement, depicting a robust midlevel trough and 90+ kt midlevel jet streak overspreading the southern Rockies and adjacent High Plains. In response, a deepening surface cyclone over the central Plains will favor strong westerly surface winds amid low RH across the region. Given the strong model agreement and limited chance of rainfall over already receptive fuels, 70-percent Critical probabilities have been added. ..Weinman.. 03/07/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more