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SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes required. Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across parts of the Great Basin and northern AZ over the past few hours. Recent LightningCast data suggests overall lightning potential remains low for the near-term with the relatively greatest chance for lightning across central/northern UT. This trend of isolated/infrequent lightning is expected to continue through late evening from CA into the central Rockies. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. Read more

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0137 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 062000Z - 071200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast across the contiguous United States through tonight. ...20z Update... The previous forecast remains on track with no forecast changes required. Sporadic lightning flashes have been noted across parts of the Great Basin and northern AZ over the past few hours. Recent LightningCast data suggests overall lightning potential remains low for the near-term with the relatively greatest chance for lightning across central/northern UT. This trend of isolated/infrequent lightning is expected to continue through late evening from CA into the central Rockies. See the previous discussion below for additional details. ..Moore.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis and Discussion... Upper pattern is expected to remain fairly progressive today as the trough currently extended from the Great Lakes off the NC Coast continues eastward/northeastward and the upper low currently over central CA/NV shifts southeastward towards the Lower CO Valley. Shortwave ridging that extends between these two trough from the southern Plains into the northern Rockies is forecast to dampen as it shifts eastward into the MS Valley. Most prominent surface feature is the expansive ridging that currently extends from the Lower MS Valley into southern Alberta/Saskatchewan. The dry and stable airmass associated with this ridge will promote stable conditions across much of the central and eastern CONUS throughout the day. Some modest moisture return is anticipated this evening through tonight across the southern Plains as lee cyclogenesis over the central High Plains increases the pressure gradient and southerly flow strengthens. Warm low- to mid-level temperatures will keep the southern Plains stable. Isolated lightning flashes are possible across the Great Basin and into the central Rockies. Here, a shortwave trough rotating around the parent upper low will progress through the region, with the associated large-scale ascent interacting with modest buoyancy fostered by relatively moist low/mid-levels and cold temperatures aloft. Some small (i.e. sub-severe) hail is possible within a few of the deeper cores. Additional isolated lightning flashes are anticipated farther west across central CA where another shortwave trough rotating around the upper low will contribute to strong ascent amid cold mid-level temperatures. Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging in the Southeast will lose definition as strongly positive-tilted trough emerges from the southern Plains on Saturday. Mid-level southwesterly winds will already be strong across the Gulf Coast region. The trough will be accompanied by an intensifying mid-level jet that will arrive in the Sabine Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon into the evening. At the surface, a weak frontal wave cyclone is expected to migrate eastward out of Texas along the Gulf Coast. A cold front will be situated from Central Texas eastward near the Gulf Coast. Mid/upper 60s F dewpoints may move immediately inland of the coast. ...East Texas into Central Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle... Widely scattered storms may develop during the afternoon, but confidence in greater storm coverage increases towards evening when greater mid-level ascent will impact the region. Storms are generally expected to be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. Some storms closer to the coast could become surface based, but forecast soundings suggest there is uncertainty as to whether the near-surface stable layer will erode. Given strong shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates (particularly towards the west), large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Low-level winds will not be particularly strong and 850 mb winds will be veered. Should a storm become surface based, there would be a conditional threat for a tornado near the surface boundary. With some modest deepening of the surface low expected towards Sunday morning, low-level hodographs will become slightly enlarged in the western Florida Panhandle. Severe probabilities have been extended farther east to account for this. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging in the Southeast will lose definition as strongly positive-tilted trough emerges from the southern Plains on Saturday. Mid-level southwesterly winds will already be strong across the Gulf Coast region. The trough will be accompanied by an intensifying mid-level jet that will arrive in the Sabine Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon into the evening. At the surface, a weak frontal wave cyclone is expected to migrate eastward out of Texas along the Gulf Coast. A cold front will be situated from Central Texas eastward near the Gulf Coast. Mid/upper 60s F dewpoints may move immediately inland of the coast. ...East Texas into Central Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle... Widely scattered storms may develop during the afternoon, but confidence in greater storm coverage increases towards evening when greater mid-level ascent will impact the region. Storms are generally expected to be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. Some storms closer to the coast could become surface based, but forecast soundings suggest there is uncertainty as to whether the near-surface stable layer will erode. Given strong shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates (particularly towards the west), large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Low-level winds will not be particularly strong and 850 mb winds will be veered. Should a storm become surface based, there would be a conditional threat for a tornado near the surface boundary. With some modest deepening of the surface low expected towards Sunday morning, low-level hodographs will become slightly enlarged in the western Florida Panhandle. Severe probabilities have been extended farther east to account for this. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging in the Southeast will lose definition as strongly positive-tilted trough emerges from the southern Plains on Saturday. Mid-level southwesterly winds will already be strong across the Gulf Coast region. The trough will be accompanied by an intensifying mid-level jet that will arrive in the Sabine Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon into the evening. At the surface, a weak frontal wave cyclone is expected to migrate eastward out of Texas along the Gulf Coast. A cold front will be situated from Central Texas eastward near the Gulf Coast. Mid/upper 60s F dewpoints may move immediately inland of the coast. ...East Texas into Central Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle... Widely scattered storms may develop during the afternoon, but confidence in greater storm coverage increases towards evening when greater mid-level ascent will impact the region. Storms are generally expected to be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. Some storms closer to the coast could become surface based, but forecast soundings suggest there is uncertainty as to whether the near-surface stable layer will erode. Given strong shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates (particularly towards the west), large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Low-level winds will not be particularly strong and 850 mb winds will be veered. Should a storm become surface based, there would be a conditional threat for a tornado near the surface boundary. With some modest deepening of the surface low expected towards Sunday morning, low-level hodographs will become slightly enlarged in the western Florida Panhandle. Severe probabilities have been extended farther east to account for this. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging in the Southeast will lose definition as strongly positive-tilted trough emerges from the southern Plains on Saturday. Mid-level southwesterly winds will already be strong across the Gulf Coast region. The trough will be accompanied by an intensifying mid-level jet that will arrive in the Sabine Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon into the evening. At the surface, a weak frontal wave cyclone is expected to migrate eastward out of Texas along the Gulf Coast. A cold front will be situated from Central Texas eastward near the Gulf Coast. Mid/upper 60s F dewpoints may move immediately inland of the coast. ...East Texas into Central Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle... Widely scattered storms may develop during the afternoon, but confidence in greater storm coverage increases towards evening when greater mid-level ascent will impact the region. Storms are generally expected to be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. Some storms closer to the coast could become surface based, but forecast soundings suggest there is uncertainty as to whether the near-surface stable layer will erode. Given strong shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates (particularly towards the west), large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Low-level winds will not be particularly strong and 850 mb winds will be veered. Should a storm become surface based, there would be a conditional threat for a tornado near the surface boundary. With some modest deepening of the surface low expected towards Sunday morning, low-level hodographs will become slightly enlarged in the western Florida Panhandle. Severe probabilities have been extended farther east to account for this. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging in the Southeast will lose definition as strongly positive-tilted trough emerges from the southern Plains on Saturday. Mid-level southwesterly winds will already be strong across the Gulf Coast region. The trough will be accompanied by an intensifying mid-level jet that will arrive in the Sabine Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon into the evening. At the surface, a weak frontal wave cyclone is expected to migrate eastward out of Texas along the Gulf Coast. A cold front will be situated from Central Texas eastward near the Gulf Coast. Mid/upper 60s F dewpoints may move immediately inland of the coast. ...East Texas into Central Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle... Widely scattered storms may develop during the afternoon, but confidence in greater storm coverage increases towards evening when greater mid-level ascent will impact the region. Storms are generally expected to be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. Some storms closer to the coast could become surface based, but forecast soundings suggest there is uncertainty as to whether the near-surface stable layer will erode. Given strong shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates (particularly towards the west), large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Low-level winds will not be particularly strong and 850 mb winds will be veered. Should a storm become surface based, there would be a conditional threat for a tornado near the surface boundary. With some modest deepening of the surface low expected towards Sunday morning, low-level hodographs will become slightly enlarged in the western Florida Panhandle. Severe probabilities have been extended farther east to account for this. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging in the Southeast will lose definition as strongly positive-tilted trough emerges from the southern Plains on Saturday. Mid-level southwesterly winds will already be strong across the Gulf Coast region. The trough will be accompanied by an intensifying mid-level jet that will arrive in the Sabine Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon into the evening. At the surface, a weak frontal wave cyclone is expected to migrate eastward out of Texas along the Gulf Coast. A cold front will be situated from Central Texas eastward near the Gulf Coast. Mid/upper 60s F dewpoints may move immediately inland of the coast. ...East Texas into Central Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle... Widely scattered storms may develop during the afternoon, but confidence in greater storm coverage increases towards evening when greater mid-level ascent will impact the region. Storms are generally expected to be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. Some storms closer to the coast could become surface based, but forecast soundings suggest there is uncertainty as to whether the near-surface stable layer will erode. Given strong shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates (particularly towards the west), large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Low-level winds will not be particularly strong and 850 mb winds will be veered. Should a storm become surface based, there would be a conditional threat for a tornado near the surface boundary. With some modest deepening of the surface low expected towards Sunday morning, low-level hodographs will become slightly enlarged in the western Florida Panhandle. Severe probabilities have been extended farther east to account for this. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1930Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0127 PM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 081200Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF EAST TEXAS...THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong to severe thunderstorms may occur from portions of East Texas into the Central Gulf Coast region on Saturday. Large hail is the primary hazard with the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... Low amplitude ridging in the Southeast will lose definition as strongly positive-tilted trough emerges from the southern Plains on Saturday. Mid-level southwesterly winds will already be strong across the Gulf Coast region. The trough will be accompanied by an intensifying mid-level jet that will arrive in the Sabine Valley/Lower Mississippi Valley during the late afternoon into the evening. At the surface, a weak frontal wave cyclone is expected to migrate eastward out of Texas along the Gulf Coast. A cold front will be situated from Central Texas eastward near the Gulf Coast. Mid/upper 60s F dewpoints may move immediately inland of the coast. ...East Texas into Central Gulf Coast/Florida Panhandle... Widely scattered storms may develop during the afternoon, but confidence in greater storm coverage increases towards evening when greater mid-level ascent will impact the region. Storms are generally expected to be elevated on the cool side of the boundary. Some storms closer to the coast could become surface based, but forecast soundings suggest there is uncertainty as to whether the near-surface stable layer will erode. Given strong shear and moderately steep mid-level lapse rates (particularly towards the west), large hail will be possible with the strongest storms. Low-level winds will not be particularly strong and 850 mb winds will be veered. Should a storm become surface based, there would be a conditional threat for a tornado near the surface boundary. With some modest deepening of the surface low expected towards Sunday morning, low-level hodographs will become slightly enlarged in the western Florida Panhandle. Severe probabilities have been extended farther east to account for this. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

More than 200 wildfires have begun in Georgia in the past six or seven days. Low humidity and winds were to return, so the public was urged not to burn leaves or other materials until conditions improve. WRGA 1470 AM (Rome, Ga.), March 6, 2025

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible in east-central Arizona into west-central New Mexico Friday afternoon/evening. Additional storms are possible late Friday night in parts of North/Central Texas. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude ridging will be present across the southern Plains and Southeast through Friday night. An upper trough in the lower Colorado Valley will move eastward through the Southwest and is expected to reach the southern High Plains by Saturday morning. A surface low, initially in Kansas, will move into the lower Ohio Valley, weakening with time. A cold front will push southward into Central Texas. A weak frontal cyclone will develop along the boundary as the Southwestern trough approaches. ...Parts of Central/North Texas... Late Friday night into Saturday, storm development is possible along and north of the surface cold front. Forcing for ascent will remain rather modest and most forecast soundings have some hints of mid-level warm air inhibiting development. CAM solutions consequently show isolated storms, but vary spatially in terms of where storms may initiate. Given the strong southwesterly flow aloft and modest elevated buoyancy, the strongest storms could produce at least small hail. ...Arizona/New Mexico... Cold temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will promote isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms in portions of east-central Arizona and west-central New Mexico. With cloud cover and precipitation expected within the region, buoyancy and storm intensity should remain low. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible in east-central Arizona into west-central New Mexico Friday afternoon/evening. Additional storms are possible late Friday night in parts of North/Central Texas. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude ridging will be present across the southern Plains and Southeast through Friday night. An upper trough in the lower Colorado Valley will move eastward through the Southwest and is expected to reach the southern High Plains by Saturday morning. A surface low, initially in Kansas, will move into the lower Ohio Valley, weakening with time. A cold front will push southward into Central Texas. A weak frontal cyclone will develop along the boundary as the Southwestern trough approaches. ...Parts of Central/North Texas... Late Friday night into Saturday, storm development is possible along and north of the surface cold front. Forcing for ascent will remain rather modest and most forecast soundings have some hints of mid-level warm air inhibiting development. CAM solutions consequently show isolated storms, but vary spatially in terms of where storms may initiate. Given the strong southwesterly flow aloft and modest elevated buoyancy, the strongest storms could produce at least small hail. ...Arizona/New Mexico... Cold temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will promote isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms in portions of east-central Arizona and west-central New Mexico. With cloud cover and precipitation expected within the region, buoyancy and storm intensity should remain low. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible in east-central Arizona into west-central New Mexico Friday afternoon/evening. Additional storms are possible late Friday night in parts of North/Central Texas. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude ridging will be present across the southern Plains and Southeast through Friday night. An upper trough in the lower Colorado Valley will move eastward through the Southwest and is expected to reach the southern High Plains by Saturday morning. A surface low, initially in Kansas, will move into the lower Ohio Valley, weakening with time. A cold front will push southward into Central Texas. A weak frontal cyclone will develop along the boundary as the Southwestern trough approaches. ...Parts of Central/North Texas... Late Friday night into Saturday, storm development is possible along and north of the surface cold front. Forcing for ascent will remain rather modest and most forecast soundings have some hints of mid-level warm air inhibiting development. CAM solutions consequently show isolated storms, but vary spatially in terms of where storms may initiate. Given the strong southwesterly flow aloft and modest elevated buoyancy, the strongest storms could produce at least small hail. ...Arizona/New Mexico... Cold temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will promote isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms in portions of east-central Arizona and west-central New Mexico. With cloud cover and precipitation expected within the region, buoyancy and storm intensity should remain low. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible in east-central Arizona into west-central New Mexico Friday afternoon/evening. Additional storms are possible late Friday night in parts of North/Central Texas. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude ridging will be present across the southern Plains and Southeast through Friday night. An upper trough in the lower Colorado Valley will move eastward through the Southwest and is expected to reach the southern High Plains by Saturday morning. A surface low, initially in Kansas, will move into the lower Ohio Valley, weakening with time. A cold front will push southward into Central Texas. A weak frontal cyclone will develop along the boundary as the Southwestern trough approaches. ...Parts of Central/North Texas... Late Friday night into Saturday, storm development is possible along and north of the surface cold front. Forcing for ascent will remain rather modest and most forecast soundings have some hints of mid-level warm air inhibiting development. CAM solutions consequently show isolated storms, but vary spatially in terms of where storms may initiate. Given the strong southwesterly flow aloft and modest elevated buoyancy, the strongest storms could produce at least small hail. ...Arizona/New Mexico... Cold temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will promote isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms in portions of east-central Arizona and west-central New Mexico. With cloud cover and precipitation expected within the region, buoyancy and storm intensity should remain low. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible in east-central Arizona into west-central New Mexico Friday afternoon/evening. Additional storms are possible late Friday night in parts of North/Central Texas. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude ridging will be present across the southern Plains and Southeast through Friday night. An upper trough in the lower Colorado Valley will move eastward through the Southwest and is expected to reach the southern High Plains by Saturday morning. A surface low, initially in Kansas, will move into the lower Ohio Valley, weakening with time. A cold front will push southward into Central Texas. A weak frontal cyclone will develop along the boundary as the Southwestern trough approaches. ...Parts of Central/North Texas... Late Friday night into Saturday, storm development is possible along and north of the surface cold front. Forcing for ascent will remain rather modest and most forecast soundings have some hints of mid-level warm air inhibiting development. CAM solutions consequently show isolated storms, but vary spatially in terms of where storms may initiate. Given the strong southwesterly flow aloft and modest elevated buoyancy, the strongest storms could produce at least small hail. ...Arizona/New Mexico... Cold temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will promote isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms in portions of east-central Arizona and west-central New Mexico. With cloud cover and precipitation expected within the region, buoyancy and storm intensity should remain low. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible in east-central Arizona into west-central New Mexico Friday afternoon/evening. Additional storms are possible late Friday night in parts of North/Central Texas. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude ridging will be present across the southern Plains and Southeast through Friday night. An upper trough in the lower Colorado Valley will move eastward through the Southwest and is expected to reach the southern High Plains by Saturday morning. A surface low, initially in Kansas, will move into the lower Ohio Valley, weakening with time. A cold front will push southward into Central Texas. A weak frontal cyclone will develop along the boundary as the Southwestern trough approaches. ...Parts of Central/North Texas... Late Friday night into Saturday, storm development is possible along and north of the surface cold front. Forcing for ascent will remain rather modest and most forecast soundings have some hints of mid-level warm air inhibiting development. CAM solutions consequently show isolated storms, but vary spatially in terms of where storms may initiate. Given the strong southwesterly flow aloft and modest elevated buoyancy, the strongest storms could produce at least small hail. ...Arizona/New Mexico... Cold temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will promote isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms in portions of east-central Arizona and west-central New Mexico. With cloud cover and precipitation expected within the region, buoyancy and storm intensity should remain low. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible in east-central Arizona into west-central New Mexico Friday afternoon/evening. Additional storms are possible late Friday night in parts of North/Central Texas. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude ridging will be present across the southern Plains and Southeast through Friday night. An upper trough in the lower Colorado Valley will move eastward through the Southwest and is expected to reach the southern High Plains by Saturday morning. A surface low, initially in Kansas, will move into the lower Ohio Valley, weakening with time. A cold front will push southward into Central Texas. A weak frontal cyclone will develop along the boundary as the Southwestern trough approaches. ...Parts of Central/North Texas... Late Friday night into Saturday, storm development is possible along and north of the surface cold front. Forcing for ascent will remain rather modest and most forecast soundings have some hints of mid-level warm air inhibiting development. CAM solutions consequently show isolated storms, but vary spatially in terms of where storms may initiate. Given the strong southwesterly flow aloft and modest elevated buoyancy, the strongest storms could produce at least small hail. ...Arizona/New Mexico... Cold temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will promote isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms in portions of east-central Arizona and west-central New Mexico. With cloud cover and precipitation expected within the region, buoyancy and storm intensity should remain low. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1119 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to widely scattered storms are possible in east-central Arizona into west-central New Mexico Friday afternoon/evening. Additional storms are possible late Friday night in parts of North/Central Texas. Severe weather potential currently appears low. ...Synopsis... Low-amplitude ridging will be present across the southern Plains and Southeast through Friday night. An upper trough in the lower Colorado Valley will move eastward through the Southwest and is expected to reach the southern High Plains by Saturday morning. A surface low, initially in Kansas, will move into the lower Ohio Valley, weakening with time. A cold front will push southward into Central Texas. A weak frontal cyclone will develop along the boundary as the Southwestern trough approaches. ...Parts of Central/North Texas... Late Friday night into Saturday, storm development is possible along and north of the surface cold front. Forcing for ascent will remain rather modest and most forecast soundings have some hints of mid-level warm air inhibiting development. CAM solutions consequently show isolated storms, but vary spatially in terms of where storms may initiate. Given the strong southwesterly flow aloft and modest elevated buoyancy, the strongest storms could produce at least small hail. ...Arizona/New Mexico... Cold temperatures aloft beneath the upper trough will promote isolated to perhaps widely scattered thunderstorms in portions of east-central Arizona and west-central New Mexico. With cloud cover and precipitation expected within the region, buoyancy and storm intensity should remain low. ..Wendt.. 03/06/2025 Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... Widespread cirrus is evident on morning satellite across much of the southern High Plains. As temperatures warm and RH falls, critical fire conditions should develop over eastern NM and the western TX Panhandle. The widespread cloud cover may tend to limit the northern and eastern extent of the critical conditions, especially where significant precipitation fell over the last 72 hours. However, given widespread RH expected below 15% and wind exceeding 25-30 mph should support some curing of short-hour fuels. Thus, will maintain most of the critical area as is with very minor adjustments to the eastern edge of the Elevated area. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the Desert Southwest as a downstream upper trough ejects into the Atlantic today. As a result, rapid surface cyclone development should take place across the central High Plains. A dryline will mix eastward across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions conducive to dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds within the 20-30 mph range should overlap with 10-15 percent RH for several hours across central and eastern New Mexico into far western Texas, necessitating Elevated/Critical highlights. The best chance for locally Extremely Critical conditions will be over eastern New Mexico, where guidance consensus shows the best overlap of 30 mph sustained surface winds amid 10 percent RH. Here, wildfire-spread potential will be highest given critically dry fuels. Meanwhile, dry northwesterly surface winds will overspread much of the Southeast behind a departing surface cold front associated with the downstream upper trough. Across much of the Florida Peninsula, which has seen relatively little rainfall compared to points farther north, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 20-30 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. As such, Elevated highlights were introduced, though these highlights are relatively low-end in nature given modest fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1046 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025 Valid 061700Z - 071200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS... ...17z Update... Widespread cirrus is evident on morning satellite across much of the southern High Plains. As temperatures warm and RH falls, critical fire conditions should develop over eastern NM and the western TX Panhandle. The widespread cloud cover may tend to limit the northern and eastern extent of the critical conditions, especially where significant precipitation fell over the last 72 hours. However, given widespread RH expected below 15% and wind exceeding 25-30 mph should support some curing of short-hour fuels. Thus, will maintain most of the critical area as is with very minor adjustments to the eastern edge of the Elevated area. See the prior discussion for more info. ..Lyons.. 03/06/2025 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0110 AM CST Thu Mar 06 2025/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough will amplify over the Desert Southwest as a downstream upper trough ejects into the Atlantic today. As a result, rapid surface cyclone development should take place across the central High Plains. A dryline will mix eastward across the southern High Plains, promoting dry and windy conditions conducive to dangerous wildfire-spread potential. By afternoon peak heating, sustained westerly surface winds within the 20-30 mph range should overlap with 10-15 percent RH for several hours across central and eastern New Mexico into far western Texas, necessitating Elevated/Critical highlights. The best chance for locally Extremely Critical conditions will be over eastern New Mexico, where guidance consensus shows the best overlap of 30 mph sustained surface winds amid 10 percent RH. Here, wildfire-spread potential will be highest given critically dry fuels. Meanwhile, dry northwesterly surface winds will overspread much of the Southeast behind a departing surface cold front associated with the downstream upper trough. Across much of the Florida Peninsula, which has seen relatively little rainfall compared to points farther north, 15 mph sustained northwesterly surface winds will overlap with 20-30 percent RH by afternoon peak heating. As such, Elevated highlights were introduced, though these highlights are relatively low-end in nature given modest fuel receptiveness to wildfire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more