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SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...01z Update... Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has struggled to develop. 1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western IN. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...01z Update... Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has struggled to develop. 1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western IN. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...01z Update... Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has struggled to develop. 1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western IN. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...01z Update... Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has struggled to develop. 1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western IN. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...01z Update... Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has struggled to develop. 1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western IN. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...01z Update... Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has struggled to develop. 1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western IN. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...01z Update... Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has struggled to develop. 1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western IN. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0740 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 190100Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms remain possible from parts of the southern Plains northeastward through the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. Large to very large hail should be the main hazard, especially across the southern Plains where storms will be more concentrated. ...01z Update... Extensive cloud cover has developed within broad southwesterly flow from northern Mexico, northeast across the southern Plains into the Mid-MS Valley region. This has suppressed warm-sector temperatures across the southern Plains and the synoptic front has surged a bit farther south than earlier expected. Net result is significant CINH persists across the southern Plains and surface-based convection has struggled to develop. 1km flow is expected to strengthen across the southern Plains later this evening and this should aid elevated convection north of the cold front that currently extends from near LBB-north of SPS-near SGF. 00z sounding at OUN remains quite capped, but inhibition is notably weaker downstream from SGF to ILX. Latest radar data suggests a gradual increase in elevated convection across the eastern TX Panhandle into far western OK. This activity should gradually expand through the late-evening into the overnight hours. Large hail is the primary risk with these elevated storms Otherwise, some severe risk remains with any frontal convection that evolves overnight downstream across the Mid-MS Valley into western IN. ..Darrow.. 04/19/2025 Read more

No watches are valid as of Fri Apr 18 23:16:02 UTC 2025.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Apr 18 23:16:02 UTC 2025.

MD 0470 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY FOR NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS AND SOUTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
Mesoscale Discussion 0470 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0340 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Areas affected...north-central Texas and south-central and central Oklahoma Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely Valid 182040Z - 182315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent SUMMARY...Severe threat to increase through the afternoon and evening. All hazards possible including large hail, damaging wind, and tornadoes. DISCUSSION...Surface analysis indicates a cold front located from northeastern through the Oklahoma City metro into southwestern Oklahoma to northwest Texas as of 20z. A dryline was located from southwestern Oklahoma into southwestern Texas. Ahead of the front, a broad area of mid to high level cloud cover has been in place across of southwestern/central Oklahoma, which has limited stronger daytime heating in this area. Breaks in the clouds have allowed temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to 80s across eastern Oklahoma. A gradient of MLCAPE around 500-1500 J/kg extends southwest to northeast across north-central Texas into eastern Oklahoma with strong deep layer shear around 55-65 kts. Recent runs of CAM guidance indicate potential for storm initiation across north-central Texas into southwestern Oklahoma at the intersection of the dryline and cold front. Forecast soundings indicate elongated largely straight hodographs and steep mid-level lapse rates, indicative of splitting supercells capable of large to very large (2-3"+) hail. This would support some potential for a storm or two to move northward to the cool side of the boundary, where the tornado threat should be minimal. Where the surface based warm sector resides, downstream tornado threat may evolve into the evening as additional development occurs along the cold front and cells move eastward into more favorable instability and backed surface winds. A watch or weather watches will be needed in the coming hours to highlight these potential severe threats. ..Thornton/Smith.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...TSA...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 33130009 33290049 33530054 34350034 34759991 35049899 35159852 35479785 35769718 35809635 35539591 35059579 34319634 33999698 33669769 33319857 33109958 33130009 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...2.75-4.25 IN Read more

MD 0471 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND SRN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0471 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Areas affected...parts of cntrl and srn Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 182051Z - 182245Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The potential for thunderstorm initiation along and just south of a warm frontal zone across lower Michigan is being monitored for a possible severe weather watch issuance, as this may be accompanied by increasing risk for severe hail and wind by 6-8 PM EDT. DISCUSSION...A weak perturbation, within larger-scale anticyclonic flow on the northwestern periphery of prominent mid-level ridging, will continue to progress across and northeast of the middle Mississippi Valley through late afternoon. Associated forcing for ascent appears to have aided a flare up of convection approaching the Greater Milwaukee vicinity, and latest Rapid Refresh suggests that this may contribute to erosion of inhibition associated with elevated mixed-layer air across southern Lower Michigan by the 22-00Z time frame. As this occurs, the moistening boundary-layer along and south of a warm frontal zone (downstream of a weak surface low migrating across southern Wisconsin/northern Illinois) may become characterized by CAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg within the next couple hours, in the presence of strong deep-layer shear. Although calibrated HREF and NCEP SREF guidance indicates highest probabilities for thunderstorm development evolving above/to the north of the warm frontal zone, initiation of storms closer to and just south of the frontal zone will provide the highest potential for organizing and intensifying into a severe hail and wind threat. ..Kerr/Smith.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...IWX...GRR... LAT...LON 43118598 43578274 42438293 41798653 42558615 43118598 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Active mid-level flow is expected over much of the US through the extended forecast period. An upper trough will migrate across the Plains and central US this weekend, as an area of low pressure and cold front move east with it. As the cold front over the plains stalls, the trailing portion will move westward, increasing RH and overnight recoveries for several days across the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will keep fire-weather conditions relatively limited until the next larger trough begins to approach midweek next week. ...Southern Great Basin into the Southwest... Midweek next week, the cooler air mass behind the aforementioned cold front will begin to modify as the next upper trough approaches the West Coast. Increasingly strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the drying and warming air mass, supporting some increase in fire-weather potential. Model timing differences remain substantial, though ensembles shows elevated conditions emerging by D6/Thurs. More substantial fire-weather conditions are possible into next weekend, as the main trough overspreads the southern Rockies and High Plains. ...FL... Very dry conditions are expected to persist across south FL through the middle of next week as high pressure continues to intensify over the eastern Atlantic this weekend. Relatively dry east/southeasterly flow is expected along with very warm temperatures. The combination of warm temperatures and modest moisture will support elevated fire-weather conditions given dry fuels D3/Sunday. Further drying of fuels is also expected over southern FL next week. Some risk for locally elevated fire weather conditions remains possible for the inland and western Peninsula much of next week. ...Central High Plains... A period of westerly downslope flow is likely from this weekend into early next week as flow aloft becomes more zonal. Downslope winds may reach critical criteria behind the cold front, but substantial uncertainty remains on diurnal RH minimums given the cooler surface temperatures. Additionally, widespread precipitation is expected over the next several days, likely tempering fuels and supporting only localized fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Active mid-level flow is expected over much of the US through the extended forecast period. An upper trough will migrate across the Plains and central US this weekend, as an area of low pressure and cold front move east with it. As the cold front over the plains stalls, the trailing portion will move westward, increasing RH and overnight recoveries for several days across the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will keep fire-weather conditions relatively limited until the next larger trough begins to approach midweek next week. ...Southern Great Basin into the Southwest... Midweek next week, the cooler air mass behind the aforementioned cold front will begin to modify as the next upper trough approaches the West Coast. Increasingly strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the drying and warming air mass, supporting some increase in fire-weather potential. Model timing differences remain substantial, though ensembles shows elevated conditions emerging by D6/Thurs. More substantial fire-weather conditions are possible into next weekend, as the main trough overspreads the southern Rockies and High Plains. ...FL... Very dry conditions are expected to persist across south FL through the middle of next week as high pressure continues to intensify over the eastern Atlantic this weekend. Relatively dry east/southeasterly flow is expected along with very warm temperatures. The combination of warm temperatures and modest moisture will support elevated fire-weather conditions given dry fuels D3/Sunday. Further drying of fuels is also expected over southern FL next week. Some risk for locally elevated fire weather conditions remains possible for the inland and western Peninsula much of next week. ...Central High Plains... A period of westerly downslope flow is likely from this weekend into early next week as flow aloft becomes more zonal. Downslope winds may reach critical criteria behind the cold front, but substantial uncertainty remains on diurnal RH minimums given the cooler surface temperatures. Additionally, widespread precipitation is expected over the next several days, likely tempering fuels and supporting only localized fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Active mid-level flow is expected over much of the US through the extended forecast period. An upper trough will migrate across the Plains and central US this weekend, as an area of low pressure and cold front move east with it. As the cold front over the plains stalls, the trailing portion will move westward, increasing RH and overnight recoveries for several days across the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will keep fire-weather conditions relatively limited until the next larger trough begins to approach midweek next week. ...Southern Great Basin into the Southwest... Midweek next week, the cooler air mass behind the aforementioned cold front will begin to modify as the next upper trough approaches the West Coast. Increasingly strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the drying and warming air mass, supporting some increase in fire-weather potential. Model timing differences remain substantial, though ensembles shows elevated conditions emerging by D6/Thurs. More substantial fire-weather conditions are possible into next weekend, as the main trough overspreads the southern Rockies and High Plains. ...FL... Very dry conditions are expected to persist across south FL through the middle of next week as high pressure continues to intensify over the eastern Atlantic this weekend. Relatively dry east/southeasterly flow is expected along with very warm temperatures. The combination of warm temperatures and modest moisture will support elevated fire-weather conditions given dry fuels D3/Sunday. Further drying of fuels is also expected over southern FL next week. Some risk for locally elevated fire weather conditions remains possible for the inland and western Peninsula much of next week. ...Central High Plains... A period of westerly downslope flow is likely from this weekend into early next week as flow aloft becomes more zonal. Downslope winds may reach critical criteria behind the cold front, but substantial uncertainty remains on diurnal RH minimums given the cooler surface temperatures. Additionally, widespread precipitation is expected over the next several days, likely tempering fuels and supporting only localized fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Active mid-level flow is expected over much of the US through the extended forecast period. An upper trough will migrate across the Plains and central US this weekend, as an area of low pressure and cold front move east with it. As the cold front over the plains stalls, the trailing portion will move westward, increasing RH and overnight recoveries for several days across the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will keep fire-weather conditions relatively limited until the next larger trough begins to approach midweek next week. ...Southern Great Basin into the Southwest... Midweek next week, the cooler air mass behind the aforementioned cold front will begin to modify as the next upper trough approaches the West Coast. Increasingly strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the drying and warming air mass, supporting some increase in fire-weather potential. Model timing differences remain substantial, though ensembles shows elevated conditions emerging by D6/Thurs. More substantial fire-weather conditions are possible into next weekend, as the main trough overspreads the southern Rockies and High Plains. ...FL... Very dry conditions are expected to persist across south FL through the middle of next week as high pressure continues to intensify over the eastern Atlantic this weekend. Relatively dry east/southeasterly flow is expected along with very warm temperatures. The combination of warm temperatures and modest moisture will support elevated fire-weather conditions given dry fuels D3/Sunday. Further drying of fuels is also expected over southern FL next week. Some risk for locally elevated fire weather conditions remains possible for the inland and western Peninsula much of next week. ...Central High Plains... A period of westerly downslope flow is likely from this weekend into early next week as flow aloft becomes more zonal. Downslope winds may reach critical criteria behind the cold front, but substantial uncertainty remains on diurnal RH minimums given the cooler surface temperatures. Additionally, widespread precipitation is expected over the next several days, likely tempering fuels and supporting only localized fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Active mid-level flow is expected over much of the US through the extended forecast period. An upper trough will migrate across the Plains and central US this weekend, as an area of low pressure and cold front move east with it. As the cold front over the plains stalls, the trailing portion will move westward, increasing RH and overnight recoveries for several days across the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will keep fire-weather conditions relatively limited until the next larger trough begins to approach midweek next week. ...Southern Great Basin into the Southwest... Midweek next week, the cooler air mass behind the aforementioned cold front will begin to modify as the next upper trough approaches the West Coast. Increasingly strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the drying and warming air mass, supporting some increase in fire-weather potential. Model timing differences remain substantial, though ensembles shows elevated conditions emerging by D6/Thurs. More substantial fire-weather conditions are possible into next weekend, as the main trough overspreads the southern Rockies and High Plains. ...FL... Very dry conditions are expected to persist across south FL through the middle of next week as high pressure continues to intensify over the eastern Atlantic this weekend. Relatively dry east/southeasterly flow is expected along with very warm temperatures. The combination of warm temperatures and modest moisture will support elevated fire-weather conditions given dry fuels D3/Sunday. Further drying of fuels is also expected over southern FL next week. Some risk for locally elevated fire weather conditions remains possible for the inland and western Peninsula much of next week. ...Central High Plains... A period of westerly downslope flow is likely from this weekend into early next week as flow aloft becomes more zonal. Downslope winds may reach critical criteria behind the cold front, but substantial uncertainty remains on diurnal RH minimums given the cooler surface temperatures. Additionally, widespread precipitation is expected over the next several days, likely tempering fuels and supporting only localized fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Active mid-level flow is expected over much of the US through the extended forecast period. An upper trough will migrate across the Plains and central US this weekend, as an area of low pressure and cold front move east with it. As the cold front over the plains stalls, the trailing portion will move westward, increasing RH and overnight recoveries for several days across the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will keep fire-weather conditions relatively limited until the next larger trough begins to approach midweek next week. ...Southern Great Basin into the Southwest... Midweek next week, the cooler air mass behind the aforementioned cold front will begin to modify as the next upper trough approaches the West Coast. Increasingly strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the drying and warming air mass, supporting some increase in fire-weather potential. Model timing differences remain substantial, though ensembles shows elevated conditions emerging by D6/Thurs. More substantial fire-weather conditions are possible into next weekend, as the main trough overspreads the southern Rockies and High Plains. ...FL... Very dry conditions are expected to persist across south FL through the middle of next week as high pressure continues to intensify over the eastern Atlantic this weekend. Relatively dry east/southeasterly flow is expected along with very warm temperatures. The combination of warm temperatures and modest moisture will support elevated fire-weather conditions given dry fuels D3/Sunday. Further drying of fuels is also expected over southern FL next week. Some risk for locally elevated fire weather conditions remains possible for the inland and western Peninsula much of next week. ...Central High Plains... A period of westerly downslope flow is likely from this weekend into early next week as flow aloft becomes more zonal. Downslope winds may reach critical criteria behind the cold front, but substantial uncertainty remains on diurnal RH minimums given the cooler surface temperatures. Additionally, widespread precipitation is expected over the next several days, likely tempering fuels and supporting only localized fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more

SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0434 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z Active mid-level flow is expected over much of the US through the extended forecast period. An upper trough will migrate across the Plains and central US this weekend, as an area of low pressure and cold front move east with it. As the cold front over the plains stalls, the trailing portion will move westward, increasing RH and overnight recoveries for several days across the Southwest and southern High Plains. This will keep fire-weather conditions relatively limited until the next larger trough begins to approach midweek next week. ...Southern Great Basin into the Southwest... Midweek next week, the cooler air mass behind the aforementioned cold front will begin to modify as the next upper trough approaches the West Coast. Increasingly strong southwesterly flow aloft will overspread the drying and warming air mass, supporting some increase in fire-weather potential. Model timing differences remain substantial, though ensembles shows elevated conditions emerging by D6/Thurs. More substantial fire-weather conditions are possible into next weekend, as the main trough overspreads the southern Rockies and High Plains. ...FL... Very dry conditions are expected to persist across south FL through the middle of next week as high pressure continues to intensify over the eastern Atlantic this weekend. Relatively dry east/southeasterly flow is expected along with very warm temperatures. The combination of warm temperatures and modest moisture will support elevated fire-weather conditions given dry fuels D3/Sunday. Further drying of fuels is also expected over southern FL next week. Some risk for locally elevated fire weather conditions remains possible for the inland and western Peninsula much of next week. ...Central High Plains... A period of westerly downslope flow is likely from this weekend into early next week as flow aloft becomes more zonal. Downslope winds may reach critical criteria behind the cold front, but substantial uncertainty remains on diurnal RH minimums given the cooler surface temperatures. Additionally, widespread precipitation is expected over the next several days, likely tempering fuels and supporting only localized fire-weather concerns. ..Lyons.. 04/18/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... Read more