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SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1229 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Texas into southern Missouri. Isolated strong storms may also occur during the day across the Ohio Valley into portions of upstate New York. ...Texas to southern Missouri... Latest water-vapor imagery depicts a well-defined upper low digging south into northern AZ. This feature is forecast to settle into southern NM before ejecting into the southern Plains after 20/06z. Latest model guidance suggests a few weak disturbances are embedded within the broader southwesterly flow that currently extends across northern Mexico into the Mid-MS Valley. Each of these disturbances may contribute to bouts of more concentrated convection, especially near the frontal zone where low-level warm advection will be maximized. Early this morning, several clusters of elevated convection have evolved across OK into southern MO. This will likely continue into the early part of the upcoming day1 period, though some propensity for southward development may occur into north TX as CINH is gradually removed into this portion of the warm sector. Wind profiles are notably strong along this frontal corridor and updraft organization is certainly possible, including supercells and perhaps some larger clusters and line segments. A significant amount of convection may be noted along the cool side of this boundary. The greatest concentration of robust updrafts will likely be noted later in the afternoon, immediately ahead of the approaching upper trough. Guidance suggests strong boundary-layer heating will occur from far west TX into the Edwards Plateau. It appears convective temperatures will be breached along the dry line and supercells are expected to mature and track northeast toward north-central TX. Some consideration was given to higher severe probabilities along this corridor, and this may be warranted in later outlooks if the frontal zone does not sag too far south resulting in more elevated updrafts. Even so, large hail should be common with this activity. For any supercells south of the wind shift there is some concern for tornadoes as wind fields are strong and profiles are moist. During the latter half of the period, LLJ will increase across northern TX into eastern OK, in response to the aforementioned ejecting short wave. This should induce a weak surface low that will track into southern OK by Sunday morning. If buoyancy can be maintained into this portion of the southern Plains, higher severe probs may be warranted immediately ahead of the surface low. At this time, considerable amount of clouds/precipitation are concerning for significant instability/lapse rates. ...Ohio Valley into Upstate NY... Moisture will advect across the upper OH Valley into Upstate NY today, immediately ahead of the progressive cold front. Forecast soundings exhibit modest buoyancy, and substantial shear. Scattered convection, with a few possibly strong updrafts, may ultimately develop ahead of the wind shift. Locally strong winds, and perhaps some hail would be the primary risks. ..Darrow/Squitieri.. 04/19/2025 Read more

MD 0475 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 143... FOR SOUTH-CENTRAL MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0475 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1101 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Areas affected...south-central Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143... Valid 190401Z - 190530Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143 continues. SUMMARY...The greatest severe wind threat over the next few hours will be across southern Missouri where a bowing line of storms has developed. DISCUSSION...A cluster of storms across southern Missouri has recently started bowing out east of Springfield, MO. Where this bowing segment is more favorably oriented to the deep-layer flow and along/ahead of the surface front, a greater damaging wind threat will exist. The intensity/longevity of this threat remains questionable as MUCAPE is lower across southeast Missouri (~1000-1200 J/kg per SPC mesoanalysis). However, the low-level jet is intensifying (as sampled by the LZK and PAH VWP) and may be sufficient to maintain a severe wind threat for a few more hours into portions of southeast Missouri. ..Bentley.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF... LAT...LON 36909328 37079331 37299299 37569286 37759180 37779033 37499019 37059102 36859233 36859298 36909328 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 0143 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 143 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 143 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-009-015-033-087-143-190440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD MADISON WASHINGTON MOC009-029-039-043-055-057-059-065-067-071-073-077-085-091-093- 097-099-105-109-119-123-125-131-145-151-153-161-167-169-179-183- 186-187-189-203-209-213-215-219-221-225-229-510-190440- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN CRAWFORD DADE DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GASCONADE GREENE HICKORY HOWELL IRON JASPER JEFFERSON LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD MADISON MARIES MILLER NEWTON OSAGE OZARK PHELPS POLK PULASKI REYNOLDS Read more

WW 0143 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 143 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 143 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-009-015-033-087-143-190440- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD MADISON WASHINGTON MOC009-029-039-043-055-057-059-065-067-071-073-077-085-091-093- 097-099-105-109-119-123-125-131-145-151-153-161-167-169-179-183- 186-187-189-203-209-213-215-219-221-225-229-510-190440- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN CRAWFORD DADE DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GASCONADE GREENE HICKORY HOWELL IRON JASPER JEFFERSON LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD MADISON MARIES MILLER NEWTON OSAGE OZARK PHELPS POLK PULASKI REYNOLDS Read more

WW 0144 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 144 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-019-029-031-033-049-063-067-069-085-095-099-123-125-133- 137-141-190440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA CARTER COAL COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-023-077-097-207-237-275-337-363-417-429-447-485-487-503- 190440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY COOKE HASKELL JACK KNOX MONTAGUE PALO PINTO SHACKELFORD STEPHENS THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER YOUNG Read more

WW 0144 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 144 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN...FWD...SJT... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 144 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC005-019-029-031-033-049-063-067-069-085-095-099-123-125-133- 137-141-190440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ATOKA CARTER COAL COMANCHE COTTON GARVIN HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON LOVE MARSHALL MURRAY PONTOTOC POTTAWATOMIE SEMINOLE STEPHENS TILLMAN TXC009-023-077-097-207-237-275-337-363-417-429-447-485-487-503- 190440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARCHER BAYLOR CLAY COOKE HASKELL JACK KNOX MONTAGUE PALO PINTO SHACKELFORD STEPHENS THROCKMORTON WICHITA WILBARGER YOUNG Read more

WW 0145 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 145 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-017-027-051-055-057-065-075-081-083-087-109-119-149- 190440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN OKLAHOMA PAYNE WASHITA TXC155-197-190440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FOARD HARDEMAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0145 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 145 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...OUN... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 145 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS OKC015-017-027-051-055-057-065-075-081-083-087-109-119-149- 190440- OK . OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE CADDO CANADIAN CLEVELAND GRADY GREER HARMON JACKSON KIOWA LINCOLN LOGAN MCCLAIN OKLAHOMA PAYNE WASHITA TXC155-197-190440- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FOARD HARDEMAN THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0474 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL INTO NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN
Mesoscale Discussion 0474 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0845 PM CDT Fri Apr 18 2025 Areas affected...portions of central into northern Lower Michigan Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 190145Z - 190315Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A couple instances of hail (some perhaps exceeding 1 inch in diameter) are possible with the stronger, longer-lived storms through the evening hours. DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to gradually increase in coverage and intensity within a low-level warm-air advection regime, north of the warm sector. The 00Z APX observed sounding depicts a thin but long CAPE profile above 700 mb, with 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates supporting near 1000 J/kg MUCAPE. The observed hodograph above 700 mb is elongated and straight, indicating strong speed shear in the mid-levels of the troposphere. As such, hail is possible with some of the stronger storms. The narrow constriction of CAPE in the buoyant layer suggests that maximum hail size may also be relatively limited, but may still exceed marginally severe thresholds in spots. Nonetheless, given the expected isolated nature of the severe hail threat, a WW issuance is not expected. ..Squitieri/Guyer.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR... LAT...LON 43988658 44548586 44748476 44628364 44368343 44048385 43778403 43498458 43398547 43518647 43988658 MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0143 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 143 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..BENTLEY..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...TSA...LZK...SGF...LSX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 143 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS ARC007-009-015-033-087-143-190340- AR . ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BENTON BOONE CARROLL CRAWFORD MADISON WASHINGTON MOC009-029-039-043-055-057-059-065-067-071-073-077-085-091-093- 097-099-105-109-119-123-125-131-145-151-153-161-167-169-179-183- 186-187-189-203-209-213-215-219-221-225-229-510-190340- MO . MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BARRY CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN CRAWFORD DADE DALLAS DENT DOUGLAS FRANKLIN GASCONADE GREENE HICKORY HOWELL IRON JASPER JEFFERSON LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD MADISON MARIES MILLER NEWTON OSAGE OZARK PHELPS POLK PULASKI REYNOLDS Read more