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SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...Texas east to the Florida Panhandle... An upper-level low over NM will move east generally along the Red River/TX-OK border through tonight, as a surface cold front from central TX east across central MS/AL moves slowly south. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon across portions of central/eastern TX within a zone of low-level warm advection and aided by increasing large-scale ascent with time. Modest MUCAPE north of the front and sufficient shear for organized updrafts will result in the potential for large hail with a couple of stronger storms. Closer to the front over central/east-central TX thunderstorms are expected to develop through this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercell storms with large hail/damaging gusts as the primary severe hazards. Some potential for a brief tornado may also exist given sufficient low-level shear within the frontal zone. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase farther east along the front later today and tonight as moisture/buoyancy increases. Deep-layer shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including isolated supercells, with the risk for large hail and strong/severe gusts. Some risk for a tornado will remain through the overnight hours in the vicinity of the front, where modestly-increasing low-level flow will contribute to sufficient low-level shear. ..Bunting/Wendt.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1029 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF NORTHERN/EASTERN TEXAS EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...Texas east to the Florida Panhandle... An upper-level low over NM will move east generally along the Red River/TX-OK border through tonight, as a surface cold front from central TX east across central MS/AL moves slowly south. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase this afternoon across portions of central/eastern TX within a zone of low-level warm advection and aided by increasing large-scale ascent with time. Modest MUCAPE north of the front and sufficient shear for organized updrafts will result in the potential for large hail with a couple of stronger storms. Closer to the front over central/east-central TX thunderstorms are expected to develop through this afternoon, with the potential for a couple of supercell storms with large hail/damaging gusts as the primary severe hazards. Some potential for a brief tornado may also exist given sufficient low-level shear within the frontal zone. Thunderstorm coverage is also expected to increase farther east along the front later today and tonight as moisture/buoyancy increases. Deep-layer shear will remain supportive of organized storms, including isolated supercells, with the risk for large hail and strong/severe gusts. Some risk for a tornado will remain through the overnight hours in the vicinity of the front, where modestly-increasing low-level flow will contribute to sufficient low-level shear. ..Bunting/Wendt.. 03/08/2025 Read more

MD 0156 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL/NORTHEAST TX INTO NORTHWEST LA
Mesoscale Discussion 0156 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0752 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Areas affected...Parts of central/northeast TX into northwest LA Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081352Z - 081545Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms remain possible through the morning. The southward extent of development is uncertain. DISCUSSION...The elevated supercells that earlier moved across parts of north-central into northeast TX have weakened somewhat, though a couple strong cells persist near the northeast Metroplex, while a small elevated bowing cluster is approaching the ArkLaTex region. The 12Z SHV/FWD soundings depict relatively cool profiles and MUCAPE around 500 J/kg, though both also depict weak lapse rates in a saturated layer above 600 mb. With effective shear remaining favorable for organized convection, the ongoing storms may persist and at least occasionally pose a localized threat of hail and strong gusts, before generally moving into less-favorable instability with eastward extent. Farther south, rich low-level moisture (with mid/upper 60s F) is in place near and south of a cold front draped from central into northeast TX, with MLCAPE expected to increase to 500-1000 J/kg later this morning. Recent HRRR runs depict storm development near and just south of this front later this morning into parts of east-central TX, possibly in response to a low-amplitude midlevel shortwave trough moving across central TX. Should development occur in this area, deep-layer shear will support organized storms, with a somewhat greater conditional severe potential compared to areas farther north. The scenario of storm development this morning near the front or within the warm sector remains quite uncertain, but will continue to be monitored. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...HGX...FWD... LAT...LON 33419640 33449496 33229416 32519367 31619395 30969504 30689662 30959736 32559761 33419640 Read more

MD 0155 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL INTO NORTHEAST TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0155 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0559 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Areas affected...Parts of north-central into northeast TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 081159Z - 081400Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...A threat for hail and locally strong gusts will spread from north-central into northeast Texas through sunrise. DISCUSSION...A pair of long-lived, elevated supercells are moving across southern portions of the Metroplex early this morning, with MRMS data suggesting these cells have produced long swaths of subsevere to occasionally severe hail. Strong flow above 3 km (as noted on the KFWS VWP) will continue to support sufficient effective shear for storm organization as these cells move quickly east-northeastward through and after sunrise. MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg and relatively cold temperatures aloft will continue to provide a favorable thermodynamic profile for hail with these cells, though generally limited storm depth (with echo tops generally below 35 kft) may continue to limit the maximum hail sizes to some extent. Strong gusts will also continue to be possible with these cells, as noted earlier with a 42 kt gust in Cleburne. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SHV...FWD... LAT...LON 32719722 33029675 33129540 33009479 32379483 32219529 32219570 32169617 32209646 32269699 32339713 32719722 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...TX eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over western NM, with the larger-scale trough pivoting east across northern Mexico. The mid-level low will reach the OK/TX Red River Valley late tonight as a belt of 80+ kt 500-mb flow moves through the base of the trough and into the Ark-La-Tex and lower MS Valley tonight. In the low levels, a cold front over central TX east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Miss has provided some post-frontal focus for morning shower/thunderstorm development over north and northeast TX. A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8 deg C/km) extending eastward from the Permian Basin into east TX has supported some elevated supercells with an attendant hail/wind risk (see MCD #0155 for short-term details). Short-term models indicate additional possible storm development later this morning into northern portions of central TX near the I-35 corridor where richer moisture resides. Additional storm activity is possible this afternoon into tonight farther east over the northern Gulf Coast states. It seems stronger storm coverage will probably remain isolated, thereby limiting the overall severe risk. As this activity shifts eastward later today into tonight, the potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually develops into a more moist airmass. Isolated large hail and locally damaging thunderstorm gusts will be the primary hazards, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...TX eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over western NM, with the larger-scale trough pivoting east across northern Mexico. The mid-level low will reach the OK/TX Red River Valley late tonight as a belt of 80+ kt 500-mb flow moves through the base of the trough and into the Ark-La-Tex and lower MS Valley tonight. In the low levels, a cold front over central TX east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Miss has provided some post-frontal focus for morning shower/thunderstorm development over north and northeast TX. A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8 deg C/km) extending eastward from the Permian Basin into east TX has supported some elevated supercells with an attendant hail/wind risk (see MCD #0155 for short-term details). Short-term models indicate additional possible storm development later this morning into northern portions of central TX near the I-35 corridor where richer moisture resides. Additional storm activity is possible this afternoon into tonight farther east over the northern Gulf Coast states. It seems stronger storm coverage will probably remain isolated, thereby limiting the overall severe risk. As this activity shifts eastward later today into tonight, the potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually develops into a more moist airmass. Isolated large hail and locally damaging thunderstorm gusts will be the primary hazards, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...TX eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over western NM, with the larger-scale trough pivoting east across northern Mexico. The mid-level low will reach the OK/TX Red River Valley late tonight as a belt of 80+ kt 500-mb flow moves through the base of the trough and into the Ark-La-Tex and lower MS Valley tonight. In the low levels, a cold front over central TX east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Miss has provided some post-frontal focus for morning shower/thunderstorm development over north and northeast TX. A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8 deg C/km) extending eastward from the Permian Basin into east TX has supported some elevated supercells with an attendant hail/wind risk (see MCD #0155 for short-term details). Short-term models indicate additional possible storm development later this morning into northern portions of central TX near the I-35 corridor where richer moisture resides. Additional storm activity is possible this afternoon into tonight farther east over the northern Gulf Coast states. It seems stronger storm coverage will probably remain isolated, thereby limiting the overall severe risk. As this activity shifts eastward later today into tonight, the potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually develops into a more moist airmass. Isolated large hail and locally damaging thunderstorm gusts will be the primary hazards, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...TX eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over western NM, with the larger-scale trough pivoting east across northern Mexico. The mid-level low will reach the OK/TX Red River Valley late tonight as a belt of 80+ kt 500-mb flow moves through the base of the trough and into the Ark-La-Tex and lower MS Valley tonight. In the low levels, a cold front over central TX east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Miss has provided some post-frontal focus for morning shower/thunderstorm development over north and northeast TX. A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8 deg C/km) extending eastward from the Permian Basin into east TX has supported some elevated supercells with an attendant hail/wind risk (see MCD #0155 for short-term details). Short-term models indicate additional possible storm development later this morning into northern portions of central TX near the I-35 corridor where richer moisture resides. Additional storm activity is possible this afternoon into tonight farther east over the northern Gulf Coast states. It seems stronger storm coverage will probably remain isolated, thereby limiting the overall severe risk. As this activity shifts eastward later today into tonight, the potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually develops into a more moist airmass. Isolated large hail and locally damaging thunderstorm gusts will be the primary hazards, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...TX eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over western NM, with the larger-scale trough pivoting east across northern Mexico. The mid-level low will reach the OK/TX Red River Valley late tonight as a belt of 80+ kt 500-mb flow moves through the base of the trough and into the Ark-La-Tex and lower MS Valley tonight. In the low levels, a cold front over central TX east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Miss has provided some post-frontal focus for morning shower/thunderstorm development over north and northeast TX. A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8 deg C/km) extending eastward from the Permian Basin into east TX has supported some elevated supercells with an attendant hail/wind risk (see MCD #0155 for short-term details). Short-term models indicate additional possible storm development later this morning into northern portions of central TX near the I-35 corridor where richer moisture resides. Additional storm activity is possible this afternoon into tonight farther east over the northern Gulf Coast states. It seems stronger storm coverage will probably remain isolated, thereby limiting the overall severe risk. As this activity shifts eastward later today into tonight, the potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually develops into a more moist airmass. Isolated large hail and locally damaging thunderstorm gusts will be the primary hazards, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...TX eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over western NM, with the larger-scale trough pivoting east across northern Mexico. The mid-level low will reach the OK/TX Red River Valley late tonight as a belt of 80+ kt 500-mb flow moves through the base of the trough and into the Ark-La-Tex and lower MS Valley tonight. In the low levels, a cold front over central TX east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Miss has provided some post-frontal focus for morning shower/thunderstorm development over north and northeast TX. A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8 deg C/km) extending eastward from the Permian Basin into east TX has supported some elevated supercells with an attendant hail/wind risk (see MCD #0155 for short-term details). Short-term models indicate additional possible storm development later this morning into northern portions of central TX near the I-35 corridor where richer moisture resides. Additional storm activity is possible this afternoon into tonight farther east over the northern Gulf Coast states. It seems stronger storm coverage will probably remain isolated, thereby limiting the overall severe risk. As this activity shifts eastward later today into tonight, the potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually develops into a more moist airmass. Isolated large hail and locally damaging thunderstorm gusts will be the primary hazards, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...TX eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over western NM, with the larger-scale trough pivoting east across northern Mexico. The mid-level low will reach the OK/TX Red River Valley late tonight as a belt of 80+ kt 500-mb flow moves through the base of the trough and into the Ark-La-Tex and lower MS Valley tonight. In the low levels, a cold front over central TX east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Miss has provided some post-frontal focus for morning shower/thunderstorm development over north and northeast TX. A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8 deg C/km) extending eastward from the Permian Basin into east TX has supported some elevated supercells with an attendant hail/wind risk (see MCD #0155 for short-term details). Short-term models indicate additional possible storm development later this morning into northern portions of central TX near the I-35 corridor where richer moisture resides. Additional storm activity is possible this afternoon into tonight farther east over the northern Gulf Coast states. It seems stronger storm coverage will probably remain isolated, thereby limiting the overall severe risk. As this activity shifts eastward later today into tonight, the potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually develops into a more moist airmass. Isolated large hail and locally damaging thunderstorm gusts will be the primary hazards, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...TX eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over western NM, with the larger-scale trough pivoting east across northern Mexico. The mid-level low will reach the OK/TX Red River Valley late tonight as a belt of 80+ kt 500-mb flow moves through the base of the trough and into the Ark-La-Tex and lower MS Valley tonight. In the low levels, a cold front over central TX east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Miss has provided some post-frontal focus for morning shower/thunderstorm development over north and northeast TX. A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8 deg C/km) extending eastward from the Permian Basin into east TX has supported some elevated supercells with an attendant hail/wind risk (see MCD #0155 for short-term details). Short-term models indicate additional possible storm development later this morning into northern portions of central TX near the I-35 corridor where richer moisture resides. Additional storm activity is possible this afternoon into tonight farther east over the northern Gulf Coast states. It seems stronger storm coverage will probably remain isolated, thereby limiting the overall severe risk. As this activity shifts eastward later today into tonight, the potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually develops into a more moist airmass. Isolated large hail and locally damaging thunderstorm gusts will be the primary hazards, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...TX eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over western NM, with the larger-scale trough pivoting east across northern Mexico. The mid-level low will reach the OK/TX Red River Valley late tonight as a belt of 80+ kt 500-mb flow moves through the base of the trough and into the Ark-La-Tex and lower MS Valley tonight. In the low levels, a cold front over central TX east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Miss has provided some post-frontal focus for morning shower/thunderstorm development over north and northeast TX. A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8 deg C/km) extending eastward from the Permian Basin into east TX has supported some elevated supercells with an attendant hail/wind risk (see MCD #0155 for short-term details). Short-term models indicate additional possible storm development later this morning into northern portions of central TX near the I-35 corridor where richer moisture resides. Additional storm activity is possible this afternoon into tonight farther east over the northern Gulf Coast states. It seems stronger storm coverage will probably remain isolated, thereby limiting the overall severe risk. As this activity shifts eastward later today into tonight, the potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually develops into a more moist airmass. Isolated large hail and locally damaging thunderstorm gusts will be the primary hazards, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/08/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more