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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...TX eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over western NM, with the larger-scale trough pivoting east across northern Mexico. The mid-level low will reach the OK/TX Red River Valley late tonight as a belt of 80+ kt 500-mb flow moves through the base of the trough and into the Ark-La-Tex and lower MS Valley tonight. In the low levels, a cold front over central TX east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Miss has provided some post-frontal focus for morning shower/thunderstorm development over north and northeast TX. A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8 deg C/km) extending eastward from the Permian Basin into east TX has supported some elevated supercells with an attendant hail/wind risk (see MCD #0155 for short-term details). Short-term models indicate additional possible storm development later this morning into northern portions of central TX near the I-35 corridor where richer moisture resides. Additional storm activity is possible this afternoon into tonight farther east over the northern Gulf Coast states. It seems stronger storm coverage will probably remain isolated, thereby limiting the overall severe risk. As this activity shifts eastward later today into tonight, the potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually develops into a more moist airmass. Isolated large hail and locally damaging thunderstorm gusts will be the primary hazards, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...TX eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over western NM, with the larger-scale trough pivoting east across northern Mexico. The mid-level low will reach the OK/TX Red River Valley late tonight as a belt of 80+ kt 500-mb flow moves through the base of the trough and into the Ark-La-Tex and lower MS Valley tonight. In the low levels, a cold front over central TX east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Miss has provided some post-frontal focus for morning shower/thunderstorm development over north and northeast TX. A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8 deg C/km) extending eastward from the Permian Basin into east TX has supported some elevated supercells with an attendant hail/wind risk (see MCD #0155 for short-term details). Short-term models indicate additional possible storm development later this morning into northern portions of central TX near the I-35 corridor where richer moisture resides. Additional storm activity is possible this afternoon into tonight farther east over the northern Gulf Coast states. It seems stronger storm coverage will probably remain isolated, thereby limiting the overall severe risk. As this activity shifts eastward later today into tonight, the potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually develops into a more moist airmass. Isolated large hail and locally damaging thunderstorm gusts will be the primary hazards, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...TX eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over western NM, with the larger-scale trough pivoting east across northern Mexico. The mid-level low will reach the OK/TX Red River Valley late tonight as a belt of 80+ kt 500-mb flow moves through the base of the trough and into the Ark-La-Tex and lower MS Valley tonight. In the low levels, a cold front over central TX east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Miss has provided some post-frontal focus for morning shower/thunderstorm development over north and northeast TX. A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8 deg C/km) extending eastward from the Permian Basin into east TX has supported some elevated supercells with an attendant hail/wind risk (see MCD #0155 for short-term details). Short-term models indicate additional possible storm development later this morning into northern portions of central TX near the I-35 corridor where richer moisture resides. Additional storm activity is possible this afternoon into tonight farther east over the northern Gulf Coast states. It seems stronger storm coverage will probably remain isolated, thereby limiting the overall severe risk. As this activity shifts eastward later today into tonight, the potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually develops into a more moist airmass. Isolated large hail and locally damaging thunderstorm gusts will be the primary hazards, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...TX eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over western NM, with the larger-scale trough pivoting east across northern Mexico. The mid-level low will reach the OK/TX Red River Valley late tonight as a belt of 80+ kt 500-mb flow moves through the base of the trough and into the Ark-La-Tex and lower MS Valley tonight. In the low levels, a cold front over central TX east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Miss has provided some post-frontal focus for morning shower/thunderstorm development over north and northeast TX. A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8 deg C/km) extending eastward from the Permian Basin into east TX has supported some elevated supercells with an attendant hail/wind risk (see MCD #0155 for short-term details). Short-term models indicate additional possible storm development later this morning into northern portions of central TX near the I-35 corridor where richer moisture resides. Additional storm activity is possible this afternoon into tonight farther east over the northern Gulf Coast states. It seems stronger storm coverage will probably remain isolated, thereby limiting the overall severe risk. As this activity shifts eastward later today into tonight, the potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually develops into a more moist airmass. Isolated large hail and locally damaging thunderstorm gusts will be the primary hazards, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...TX eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over western NM, with the larger-scale trough pivoting east across northern Mexico. The mid-level low will reach the OK/TX Red River Valley late tonight as a belt of 80+ kt 500-mb flow moves through the base of the trough and into the Ark-La-Tex and lower MS Valley tonight. In the low levels, a cold front over central TX east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Miss has provided some post-frontal focus for morning shower/thunderstorm development over north and northeast TX. A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8 deg C/km) extending eastward from the Permian Basin into east TX has supported some elevated supercells with an attendant hail/wind risk (see MCD #0155 for short-term details). Short-term models indicate additional possible storm development later this morning into northern portions of central TX near the I-35 corridor where richer moisture resides. Additional storm activity is possible this afternoon into tonight farther east over the northern Gulf Coast states. It seems stronger storm coverage will probably remain isolated, thereby limiting the overall severe risk. As this activity shifts eastward later today into tonight, the potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually develops into a more moist airmass. Isolated large hail and locally damaging thunderstorm gusts will be the primary hazards, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...TX eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over western NM, with the larger-scale trough pivoting east across northern Mexico. The mid-level low will reach the OK/TX Red River Valley late tonight as a belt of 80+ kt 500-mb flow moves through the base of the trough and into the Ark-La-Tex and lower MS Valley tonight. In the low levels, a cold front over central TX east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Miss has provided some post-frontal focus for morning shower/thunderstorm development over north and northeast TX. A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8 deg C/km) extending eastward from the Permian Basin into east TX has supported some elevated supercells with an attendant hail/wind risk (see MCD #0155 for short-term details). Short-term models indicate additional possible storm development later this morning into northern portions of central TX near the I-35 corridor where richer moisture resides. Additional storm activity is possible this afternoon into tonight farther east over the northern Gulf Coast states. It seems stronger storm coverage will probably remain isolated, thereby limiting the overall severe risk. As this activity shifts eastward later today into tonight, the potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually develops into a more moist airmass. Isolated large hail and locally damaging thunderstorm gusts will be the primary hazards, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...TX eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over western NM, with the larger-scale trough pivoting east across northern Mexico. The mid-level low will reach the OK/TX Red River Valley late tonight as a belt of 80+ kt 500-mb flow moves through the base of the trough and into the Ark-La-Tex and lower MS Valley tonight. In the low levels, a cold front over central TX east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Miss has provided some post-frontal focus for morning shower/thunderstorm development over north and northeast TX. A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8 deg C/km) extending eastward from the Permian Basin into east TX has supported some elevated supercells with an attendant hail/wind risk (see MCD #0155 for short-term details). Short-term models indicate additional possible storm development later this morning into northern portions of central TX near the I-35 corridor where richer moisture resides. Additional storm activity is possible this afternoon into tonight farther east over the northern Gulf Coast states. It seems stronger storm coverage will probably remain isolated, thereby limiting the overall severe risk. As this activity shifts eastward later today into tonight, the potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually develops into a more moist airmass. Isolated large hail and locally damaging thunderstorm gusts will be the primary hazards, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...TX eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over western NM, with the larger-scale trough pivoting east across northern Mexico. The mid-level low will reach the OK/TX Red River Valley late tonight as a belt of 80+ kt 500-mb flow moves through the base of the trough and into the Ark-La-Tex and lower MS Valley tonight. In the low levels, a cold front over central TX east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Miss has provided some post-frontal focus for morning shower/thunderstorm development over north and northeast TX. A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8 deg C/km) extending eastward from the Permian Basin into east TX has supported some elevated supercells with an attendant hail/wind risk (see MCD #0155 for short-term details). Short-term models indicate additional possible storm development later this morning into northern portions of central TX near the I-35 corridor where richer moisture resides. Additional storm activity is possible this afternoon into tonight farther east over the northern Gulf Coast states. It seems stronger storm coverage will probably remain isolated, thereby limiting the overall severe risk. As this activity shifts eastward later today into tonight, the potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually develops into a more moist airmass. Isolated large hail and locally damaging thunderstorm gusts will be the primary hazards, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/08/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0648 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 081300Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTH TEXAS EASTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe storms will be possible today and tonight from parts of the southern Plains eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states. ...TX eastward into the northern Gulf Coast states... Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid- to upper-level low over western NM, with the larger-scale trough pivoting east across northern Mexico. The mid-level low will reach the OK/TX Red River Valley late tonight as a belt of 80+ kt 500-mb flow moves through the base of the trough and into the Ark-La-Tex and lower MS Valley tonight. In the low levels, a cold front over central TX east-northeastward into the Ark-La-Miss has provided some post-frontal focus for morning shower/thunderstorm development over north and northeast TX. A plume of steep 700-500 mb lapse rates (7-8 deg C/km) extending eastward from the Permian Basin into east TX has supported some elevated supercells with an attendant hail/wind risk (see MCD #0155 for short-term details). Short-term models indicate additional possible storm development later this morning into northern portions of central TX near the I-35 corridor where richer moisture resides. Additional storm activity is possible this afternoon into tonight farther east over the northern Gulf Coast states. It seems stronger storm coverage will probably remain isolated, thereby limiting the overall severe risk. As this activity shifts eastward later today into tonight, the potential for surface-based thunderstorms is expected to increase as the convection gradually develops into a more moist airmass. Isolated large hail and locally damaging thunderstorm gusts will be the primary hazards, although a brief tornado cannot be ruled out. ..Smith/Dean.. 03/08/2025 Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Valid 111200Z - 161200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Day 5/Wed - ArkLaTex Vicinity... Severe thunderstorm potential may increase around Day 5/Wednesday as a shortwave upper trough over the Southwest and northern Mexico develops east into the southern Plains. The GFS model suite is much more aggressive in the strength of this system compared to the ECMWF, with the GFS depicting a negative-tilt trough with a southwesterly jet streak overspreading the ArkLaTex vicinity Wednesday evening. The ECMWF on the other hand depicts a positive-tilt upper trough located further south, and with model soundings depict stronger capping. While some northward moisture return from the western Gulf is likely to occur across east TX and the ArkLaTex vicinity, large spread in surface features also is apparent. Severe probabilities may be needed at some point across the region, but uncertainty is still too high to delineate unconditional 15 percent severe probabilities. ...Day 7-8/Fri-Sat - Mid/Lower MS Valley into the Southeast... Low predictability due to large spread continues in medium-range guidance for the end of the period. However, forecast guidance generally depicts a strong springtime large-scale upper trough ejecting across the Plains into the eastern U.S. late in the period. This strong upper-level trough will result in a deepening surface cyclone over the Plains moving east/northeast into some portion of the Midwest, allowing Gulf moisture to spread northward centered roughly on the Mid/Lower MS Valley (Fri) into the Southeast (Sat). Given large model disparity in the placement and timing of key features, confidence/predictability is too low to delineate severe probabilities at this time, but outlook areas will likely be needed in subsequent outlooks anywhere from the ArkLaTex and Deep South into the Midwest. Read more

MD 0154 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHWEST INTO NORTH TX
Mesoscale Discussion 0154 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 AM CST Sat Mar 08 2025 Areas affected...Parts of northwest into north TX Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 080749Z - 081015Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...A few storms with large-hail potential are expected to develop overnight. DISCUSSION...Weak elevated convection is ongoing early this morning across parts of central TX, with a recent increase in midlevel cloudiness and elevated convection also noted across northwest TX. This ongoing activity is likely related to ascent and midlevel moistening beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates, in advance of a mid/upper-level low (and related shortwave trough) approaching the region from the southern Rockies. A further increase in elevated convection is expected overnight, primarily near/north of a southward-moving cold front, as relatively rich low-level moisture continues to stream northward near/north of the frontal zone, and ascent related to the shortwave and attendant strong mid/upper-level jet overspreads the region. While ongoing weak convection may be rooted near/above 700 mb, continued low-level moistening beneath steepening midlevel lapse rates is expected to result in a few deeper/stronger elevated storms overnight, especially from parts of northwest into north TX. MUCAPE increasing to near/above 1000 J/kg and favorable effective shear could support at least transient elevated supercells, with some CAM guidance suggesting development of one or two longer-lived cells later this morning. Cold temperatures aloft and steep midlevel lapse rates will support a hail threat with the stronger elevated storms, especially if any deeper and longer-lived cells can develop. Locally gusty winds could also accompany any sustained supercells, despite the elevated nature of the convection. Coverage and longevity of the organized severe threat remain uncertain, but watch issuance may be considered if observational trends support maintenance of multiple severe storms overnight. ..Dean/Smith.. 03/08/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB... LAT...LON 32080059 32720061 33000038 33309987 33539935 33599803 33289647 32889587 31499625 31199721 31059857 31009957 31069990 31280023 32080059 Read more