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SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from parts of Texas into southern Missouri, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Multiple bands/clusters of convection are ongoing this morning from parts of eastern OK northeastward to the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Much of this activity should remain elevated, with isolated hail/wind potential in the short term. In the wake of these thunderstorms, an upper trough/low will eject from the Southwest across the southern High Plains through the period. A front should generally remain stalled across the southern Plains and towards the Ozarks today, as surface cyclogenesis occurs over far west TX. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, additional robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass, combined with the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, are expected to support moderate instability across the warm sector, with peak MLCAPE values potentially reaching up to 1500-2500 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support intense updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. Initial supercells will likely pose a threat for very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter, along with damaging winds. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. Strengthening low-level shear in tandem with the increasing low-level jet should also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Given increased confidence in multiple intense supercells developing this afternoon, an Enhanced Risk has been introduced across parts of west-central to western north TX with this update. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Instability is expected to remain fairly weak along/ahead of the surface front extending from southern MO across the OH Valley and into the Northeast. Even so, strong west-southwesterly winds through low/mid-levels may support a threat for isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes through the day. Multiple ongoing clusters of elevated convection from the Ozarks to the mid MS and lower OH Valleys may become surface based over the next several hours with filtered daytime heating. Have therefore expanded the Slight Risk for damaging winds northeastward across these areas in a narrow zone along/near the front. A rather strong mid-level jet will overspread the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast today, as an upper trough develops eastward over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada. Although low-level moisture is forecast to remain limited, cold temperatures aloft should aid in modest destabilization by early afternoon in a narrow corridor along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to conditionally support supercells, although there should be a tendency for convection that develops along the front to become more linear with time. Based on recent guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk for hail/damaging wind potential eastward across these areas. Greater severe wind probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in a organized cluster developing. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/19/2025 Read more

SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0742 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 191300Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely from parts of Texas into southern Missouri, mainly this afternoon and evening. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes all appear possible. Isolated to scattered damaging winds may also occur across portions of the Ohio Valley into the Northeast. ...Southern Plains to the Ozarks... Multiple bands/clusters of convection are ongoing this morning from parts of eastern OK northeastward to the Ozarks and mid MS Valley. Much of this activity should remain elevated, with isolated hail/wind potential in the short term. In the wake of these thunderstorms, an upper trough/low will eject from the Southwest across the southern High Plains through the period. A front should generally remain stalled across the southern Plains and towards the Ozarks today, as surface cyclogenesis occurs over far west TX. As large-scale ascent spreads eastward over the southern High Plains, additional robust thunderstorms will likely develop by mid afternoon along/near the front, and a dryline extending southward across west TX into northern Mexico. Daytime heating of a moist low-level airmass, combined with the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates, are expected to support moderate instability across the warm sector, with peak MLCAPE values potentially reaching up to 1500-2500 J/kg. Strong deep-layer shear around 50-70 kt will support intense updraft organization with convection that develops along/near the front and dryline this afternoon. Initial supercells will likely pose a threat for very large hail around 2-3 inches in diameter, along with damaging winds. By early evening, convective mode should become messier as a gradually strengthening low-level jet and the front encourage thunderstorm interactions/mergers. Still, a continued large hail and damaging wind threat will likely persist for much of the evening. Strengthening low-level shear in tandem with the increasing low-level jet should also support some threat for a few tornadoes with any supercells/clusters that can remain surface based this evening. Given increased confidence in multiple intense supercells developing this afternoon, an Enhanced Risk has been introduced across parts of west-central to western north TX with this update. ...Mid Mississippi/Ohio Valleys to the Northeast... Instability is expected to remain fairly weak along/ahead of the surface front extending from southern MO across the OH Valley and into the Northeast. Even so, strong west-southwesterly winds through low/mid-levels may support a threat for isolated to scattered severe/damaging winds as the boundary layer gradually destabilizes through the day. Multiple ongoing clusters of elevated convection from the Ozarks to the mid MS and lower OH Valleys may become surface based over the next several hours with filtered daytime heating. Have therefore expanded the Slight Risk for damaging winds northeastward across these areas in a narrow zone along/near the front. A rather strong mid-level jet will overspread the northern Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast today, as an upper trough develops eastward over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada. Although low-level moisture is forecast to remain limited, cold temperatures aloft should aid in modest destabilization by early afternoon in a narrow corridor along/ahead of the eastward-moving cold front. Deep-layer shear will be strong enough to conditionally support supercells, although there should be a tendency for convection that develops along the front to become more linear with time. Based on recent guidance trends, have expanded the Marginal Risk for hail/damaging wind potential eastward across these areas. Greater severe wind probabilities may be needed if confidence increases in a organized cluster developing. ..Gleason/Broyles.. 04/19/2025 Read more

WW 0146 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 146 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW JCT TO 50 NNE JCT TO 35 W SEP TO 5 S MWL. ..BROYLES..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 146 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-093-143-193-307-333-411-191040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN COMANCHE ERATH HAMILTON MCCULLOCH MILLS SAN SABA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

WW 0146 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 146 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WSW JCT TO 50 NNE JCT TO 35 W SEP TO 5 S MWL. ..BROYLES..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 146 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-093-143-193-307-333-411-191040- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN COMANCHE ERATH HAMILTON MCCULLOCH MILLS SAN SABA THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

MD 0480 CONCERNING SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY FOR SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...SOUTHERN INDIANA
Mesoscale Discussion 0480 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...Southeast Illinois...Southern Indiana Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely Valid 190805Z - 191000Z Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent SUMMARY...An isolated potential for strong gusts will likely continue over the next hour or two. The threat should be too marginal for weather watch issuance. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from St. Louis shows a short bowing line segment over southeast Illinois. The storm is located within a narrow corridor of low-level moisture to the southeast of a cold front. Aloft, a 80 to 90 knot mid-level speed max is analyzed by the RAP to the southwest of the line segment. This mid-level jet appears to be providing lift and strong deep-layer shear sufficient for a marginal severe threat. As the short line segment moves eastward, isolated strong gusts will be possible. Instability towards the east is considerably weaker, suggesting that the cell should gradually ramp down in intensity over time. ..Broyles/Gleason.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...LMK...IND...PAH...ILX...LSX... LAT...LON 39388790 39488709 39508599 39288557 38958555 38678602 38518709 38398826 38488875 38728894 38978895 39238862 39388790 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 95 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN Read more

WW 146 SEVERE TSTM TX 190500Z - 191200Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 146 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1200 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of West-Central Texas * Effective this Saturday morning from Midnight until 700 AM CDT. * Primary threats include... Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2 inches in diameter possible Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible A tornado or two possible SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to increase overnight across the Edwards Plateau and vicinity, with large hail and damaging winds as the primary severe risks. The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 60 statute miles east and west of a line from 35 miles east northeast of Abilene TX to 50 miles west southwest of Junction TX. For a complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce tornadoes. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 143...WW 144...WW 145... AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to 2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector 23030. ...Guyer Read more

MD 0479 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 146... FOR WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTH TEXAS
Mesoscale Discussion 0479 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...West-central and North Texas Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 146... Valid 190721Z - 190915Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 146 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat will likely continue across west-central Texas over the next couple of hours. Large hail and severe gusts will the primary threats, but a tornado will also be possible. The threat may gradually move east-northeastward into parts of central and north-central Texas over the next couple of hours. DISCUSSION...The latest high-resolution radar from San Angelo shows a broken line of organized thunderstorms, with a few of the storms being severe. The line is located within strong southwest flow aloft, and is to the east of a dryline. The RAP has a corridor of moderate instability across central Texas, where MUCAPE is estimated in the 2000 to 2500 J/kg range. The storms are currently located to the west of this corridor, but should gradually move toward the western edge of the stronger instability over the next few hours. This will help maintain convective development. RAP forecast soundings across west-central Texas have 0-6 km shear in the 40 to 50 knot range, with 700-500 mb lapse rates near 8 C/km. This will likely continue to support supercells with large hail. The more intense cores could produce hailstones greater than 2 inches in diameter. Isolated severe gusts, along with a tornado will also be possible. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...FWD...EWX...SJT... LAT...LON 29950046 29880098 29950124 30180144 30470142 30900108 32499965 32929929 33229887 33299855 33259829 33199809 32969791 32529792 31939830 31089910 30319976 29950046 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-115 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN Read more

MD 0478 CONCERNING SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 143... FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA...NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
Mesoscale Discussion 0478 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0142 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Areas affected...Eastern Oklahoma...Northwest Arkansas...South-central and Southeastern Missouri Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143... Valid 190642Z - 190845Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 143 continues. SUMMARY...A severe threat is expected to continue overnight from eastern Oklahoma northeastward into southeast Missouri. Large hail and severe wind gusts will be the primary threats, but a tornado will also be possible. Weather watch issuance, or a local extension may be needed to the east of the ongoing watch near the 08Z watch expiration. DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows a large area of convection located from northeast Oklahoma northeastward into the mid Mississippi Valley. This convection is located within southwest flow aloft near and to the west of a boundary. RAP analysis shows a low-level jet to the southeast of this convection over the Ark-La-Tex. Over the next few hours, storm development will be favored along the northwestern edge of the low-level jet from northwestern Arkansas into southern Missouri. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Springfield has strong shear with 0-6 km shear near 65 knots, and 0-3 storm-relative helicity around 400 m2/s2. This will likely support an isolated severe threat over the next couple of hours. Although isolated supercells will be possible, the mode may tend to favor short line segments, especially as instability weakens gradually. Large hail and severe gusts will be the primary threats, but a tornado will also be possible. As the expiration of WW 143 approaches, either a local extension or new watch will need to be considered. ..Broyles.. 04/19/2025 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...TSA... LAT...LON 35839554 35369568 34999535 34899446 36229229 36749115 36959090 37239074 37569073 37849095 38039123 38099148 38049198 37729265 36759437 35839554 MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN Read more

WW 0146 Status Updates
STATUS REPORT ON WW 146 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 WSW JCT TO 45 S ABI TO 45 W MWL. ..BROYLES..04/19/25 ATTN...WFO...SJT...FWD... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 146 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC049-083-093-095-133-143-193-237-267-307-319-327-333-363-411- 429-503-190940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BROWN COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO EASTLAND ERATH HAMILTON JACK KIMBLE MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD MILLS PALO PINTO SAN SABA STEPHENS YOUNG THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-6/Tue-Thu -- Southern Plains... A low-amplitude west/southwesterly mid/upper flow pattern will prevail Days 4-6/Tue-Thu. South/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf into the southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport and daily diurnal destabilization. In the absence of any stronger shortwave troughs moving through the weak west/southwesterly flow regime, severe potential is uncertain and will likely be driven by mesoscale/local processes, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-6/Tue-Thu -- Southern Plains... A low-amplitude west/southwesterly mid/upper flow pattern will prevail Days 4-6/Tue-Thu. South/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf into the southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport and daily diurnal destabilization. In the absence of any stronger shortwave troughs moving through the weak west/southwesterly flow regime, severe potential is uncertain and will likely be driven by mesoscale/local processes, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-6/Tue-Thu -- Southern Plains... A low-amplitude west/southwesterly mid/upper flow pattern will prevail Days 4-6/Tue-Thu. South/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf into the southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport and daily diurnal destabilization. In the absence of any stronger shortwave troughs moving through the weak west/southwesterly flow regime, severe potential is uncertain and will likely be driven by mesoscale/local processes, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-6/Tue-Thu -- Southern Plains... A low-amplitude west/southwesterly mid/upper flow pattern will prevail Days 4-6/Tue-Thu. South/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf into the southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport and daily diurnal destabilization. In the absence of any stronger shortwave troughs moving through the weak west/southwesterly flow regime, severe potential is uncertain and will likely be driven by mesoscale/local processes, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-6/Tue-Thu -- Southern Plains... A low-amplitude west/southwesterly mid/upper flow pattern will prevail Days 4-6/Tue-Thu. South/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf into the southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport and daily diurnal destabilization. In the absence of any stronger shortwave troughs moving through the weak west/southwesterly flow regime, severe potential is uncertain and will likely be driven by mesoscale/local processes, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-6/Tue-Thu -- Southern Plains... A low-amplitude west/southwesterly mid/upper flow pattern will prevail Days 4-6/Tue-Thu. South/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf into the southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport and daily diurnal destabilization. In the absence of any stronger shortwave troughs moving through the weak west/southwesterly flow regime, severe potential is uncertain and will likely be driven by mesoscale/local processes, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-6/Tue-Thu -- Southern Plains... A low-amplitude west/southwesterly mid/upper flow pattern will prevail Days 4-6/Tue-Thu. South/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf into the southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport and daily diurnal destabilization. In the absence of any stronger shortwave troughs moving through the weak west/southwesterly flow regime, severe potential is uncertain and will likely be driven by mesoscale/local processes, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-6/Tue-Thu -- Southern Plains... A low-amplitude west/southwesterly mid/upper flow pattern will prevail Days 4-6/Tue-Thu. South/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf into the southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport and daily diurnal destabilization. In the absence of any stronger shortwave troughs moving through the weak west/southwesterly flow regime, severe potential is uncertain and will likely be driven by mesoscale/local processes, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-6/Tue-Thu -- Southern Plains... A low-amplitude west/southwesterly mid/upper flow pattern will prevail Days 4-6/Tue-Thu. South/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf into the southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport and daily diurnal destabilization. In the absence of any stronger shortwave troughs moving through the weak west/southwesterly flow regime, severe potential is uncertain and will likely be driven by mesoscale/local processes, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-6/Tue-Thu -- Southern Plains... A low-amplitude west/southwesterly mid/upper flow pattern will prevail Days 4-6/Tue-Thu. South/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf into the southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport and daily diurnal destabilization. In the absence of any stronger shortwave troughs moving through the weak west/southwesterly flow regime, severe potential is uncertain and will likely be driven by mesoscale/local processes, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CDT Sat Apr 19 2025 Valid 221200Z - 271200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Days 4-6/Tue-Thu -- Southern Plains... A low-amplitude west/southwesterly mid/upper flow pattern will prevail Days 4-6/Tue-Thu. South/southeasterly low-level flow across the western Gulf into the southern Plains will allow for northward moisture transport and daily diurnal destabilization. In the absence of any stronger shortwave troughs moving through the weak west/southwesterly flow regime, severe potential is uncertain and will likely be driven by mesoscale/local processes, precluding 15 percent probabilities at this time. Read more